Today’s game has been postponed. Doubleheader tomorrow at 12:10pm ET.

Cincinnati (2-5) will be looking to Trevor Bauer to help get this season moving in the right direction as they face off against Detroit (5-3) for the 5th time of the season. The game was moved up from it’s originally scheduled start due to a forecast of poor weather in the evening – something far easier to do when there are no fans at the games.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

Detroit Tigers

Shogo Akiyama – LF Niko Goodrum – SS
Joey Votto – 1B Jonathan Schoop – 2B
Nick Castellanos – RF Miguel Cabrera – DH
Mike Moustakas – 2B C.J. Cron – 1B
Eugenio Suarez – 3B Christin Stewart – LF
Jesse Winker – DH Victor Reyes – RF
Nick Senzel – CF Jeimer Candelario – 3B
Freddy Galvis – SS Grayson Greiner – C
Tucker Barnhart – C JaCoby Jones – CF
Trevor Bauer – SP Michael Fulmer – SP

The lineup looks familiar doesn’t it? The Reds are going with what feels mostly like the lineup we’re going to see against right-handed pitching on most days once again. The lineup had some struggles on Friday night, but with a different pitcher on the mound maybe things will go a bit differently this afternoon.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB% K%
Trevor Bauer 6.1 1.42 0.47 4.5% 59.1%
Michael Fulmer 2.2 13.50 2.25 7.1% 14.3%
Links: Trevor Bauer’s 2019 Stats | Michael Fulmer’s 2019 Stats

Trevor Bauer

After being acquired by Cincinnati at the trade deadline last season, Trevor Bauer struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. As a result of that his ERA jumped from 3.79 with Cleveland to 6.39 in 10 starts with the Reds. His walk and strikeout rates were both better with Cincinnati, but his home run rate made a huge difference.

But in his first start this season, against Detroit in the opening series, Bauer dominated. He allowed a run on two hits and a walk with 13 strikeouts in 6.1 innings. He’ll look to do it again this afternoon. Let’s take a look at how he performed last season when it comes to his splits, and what to expect from his pitches.

Splits

Split IP ERA HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
Home 100.1 4.66 22 8.9% 29.9% .216 .308 .453
Away 112.2 4.31 12 9.1% 25.9% .242 .320 .407
1st Half 132.0 3.61 17 9.2% 26.8% .214 .305 .390
2nd Half 81.0 5.89 17 8.8% 29.4% .256 .330 .489

It’s tough to make much of his splits for home/road since he only made 10 starts with the Reds. He only made four home starts with Cincinnati, but had a 4.15 ERA in 26.0 innings with six homers allowed. In six starts on the road he threw 30.1 innings with six homers allowed and an 8.31 ERA. Small sample sizes on both ends of that one.

That said, the first half and second half numbers for Trevor Bauer are dramatic. His ERA jumped up by more than two full runs. A lot of that was a much higher home run rate, but his BABIP against also jumped from .269 to .325.

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
vsRHH 491 94 27 3 14 8.3% 31.0% .216 .294 .388
vsLHH 420 90 16 4 20 9.8% 24.1% .247 .339 .478

When it comes to splits against hitters from both sides of the plate, Bauer is much better against right-handed hitters. His walk rate is lower, his strikeout rate is much higher, and his home run rate is much lower. Lefties just make more contact, and they hit for a lot more power – or at least they did in 2019 – against Bauer.

Pitch Usage and Value

4-Seam 2-Seam Slider Change Curve Cutter
Velo 94.8 95.0 79.8 86.3 79.4 84.8
Usage 38% 4% 16% 20% 14% 8%
Value/100 -0.33 1.68 -0.21 -0.96 0.88 0.34
MLB Rank 82 9 62 80 16 18
MLB Rank among 130 pitchers with 100 IP in 2019

Trevor Bauer seems to throw everything but the kitchen sink. Well, that and Alex Blandino’s knuckleball. On one side, he’s bringing an above-average 2-seamer, curve, and cutter to the table. On the other side of that, of the six pitches he throws, those three account for just 26% of the pitches that he throws. The three pitches that he threw most frequently in 2019 were all of negative value according to Fangraphs Pitch Values.

Michael Fulmer

The former 1st round pick was the 2016 American League Rookie of the year and an All-Star in 2017 for Detroit, but struggled in 2018 in 24 starts and then missed all of 2019 after having Tommy John surgery. In his first start of the year he allowed four runs on three homers in just 2.2 innings.

When Detroit came to Cincinnati for two exhibition games before the regular season began, Michael Fulmer started one of those games. He only threw 2.0 innings, but those innings were of the shutout variety and he struck out four of the eight batters he faced on the day.

Given that Michael Fulmer missed all of the 2019 season, we’re going to skip over some of the information we’d normally provide here for the opposing starting pitchers because going back two seasons doesn’t make too much sense.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
vsRHH 931 209 37 3 25 6.1% 19.7% .245 .297 .383
vsLHH 964 210 44 2 26 7.5% 18.2% .241 .307 .386
Career Splits

For his career, Michael Fulmer doesn’t really show splits against lefties or righties – his rates are pretty even across the board with a small edge for lefties over righties.

Pitch Usage

4-Seam 2-Seam Slider Change Curve
Velo 93.2 93.7 86.7 87.2 77.1
Usage 53% 5% 29% 10% 3%

The above data is from his first start of the season, which didn’t go well. It’s just one start, but coming back from Tommy John surgery the velocity for Michael Fulmer was down significantly. In 2018 he averaged 96.6 MPH on his fastball and in his first start this season that was down 3.5 MPH, averaging 93.15 according to Brooks Baseball. Perhaps that could change, but between his two innings against the Reds in the exhibition and his first start of the year the hardest he’s thrown is 94.6 MPH.

When and Where

  • Game time: 1:10pm ET
  • Where: Detroit’s Comerica Park
  • Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.tv, Fox Sports 1 (out of market only)
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 76° and cloudy with a 40% chance of rain.

NL Central Standings

Team Wins Losses GB
Cubs 5 2 0.0
Brewers 3 3 1.5
Cardinals 2 3 2.0
Pirates 2 5 2.5
Reds 2 5 2.5

News and Notes

The season feels like it’s on the brink

The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers game has been postponed for the second straight day as more Cardinals members have tested positive for COVID-19. Another player and three more staff members have tested positive today, bringing their total to three players according to Jon Heyman.

Earlier this morning Rob Manfred reportedly called their networks to inform them that they need to have alternate programming ready in case the season is put on hold and or cancelled.

The Reds designated hitter must get going

Seven games into the season the Cincinnati Reds designated hitters are a combined 1-23 (.043) with six walks. They’ve also been pinch hit for six times and have gone hitless, with two walks, in those appearances, too. Something’s got to give.

40 Responses

  1. seadog

    Let’s hope Bauer has a great start today. If this “so-called” season is halted, in my opinion—he will sign elsewhere

    Bottom line of the two big trades will be
    1. Reds gave up Jeter/Gray/Moss/Trammel
    2. What will Reds have. Kyle Farmer

    Hind sight is 100%. I liked the trades at the time. Baseball is a fickle game. Ugh, still hard to swallow the results at this moment in time.

    • jazzmanbbfan

      That’s the nature of trades sometimes. What did the Reds give up for Suarez, Castillo? Tigers and Marlins likely feeling the same way about those deals. Like you, also liked the trades at the time.

    • Hanawi

      I hated both trades at the time they were made and still hate them. Bauer turning into the pitcher from a couple of years ago and then signing on for another couple of years would be the only way to salvage anything now.

      Reds are a small market. They need to develop stars that they can control through the early years of their careers when they are cheap.

    • Greenfield Red

      Don’t forget getting rid of Homer Bailey was so important to Reds fans and that was done in these trades.

      • Hanawi

        They would have been better off just cutting Bailey. They didn’t even save that much money.

  2. centerfield

    Bauer need to go 9 shutout innings today and hit a home run. Then Reds will win.
    Bell needs to go away. He just does not seem to have a “feel” for the game or for the players. Maybe he is just the unluckiest person in the world, but as others have said he may rely too much on analytics. We need Lou pulling a base out of the ground and heaving it into the outfield. Bell just doesn’t seem to know how to push the players’ buttons. Some managers are adept at this, others don’t have a clue.

    • ClevelandRedsFan

      I agree that Bell seems to lack a feel for the game and that he doesn’t seem to know how to get the expected production out of players based on career norms. Suárez, Castillo, Gray, seem to be the only guys who out-performed expectations last year. Everyone else underperformed.

      Sam LeCure was on pre-game today talking about guys pressing and not feeling comfortable. He called it the ripple effect. He also talked about not getting regular at bats and not feeling comfortable.

      I wonder if guys press too much because they think they need to hit 3 homeruns a game or they will become a platoon player. 0-2 with two walks doesn’t change a manager’s mind. But it can consistently win games

  3. docproc

    Glad to see Suarez bumped down in the lineup.
    Looks like this game might get played closer to its original time–showers are moving into Detroit about now.

    • Melvin

      Yeah. Moving him down for now is a good move.

  4. seadog

    Lorenzo Cain ops out. Big hit to Brew Crew

    • Mark Moore

      Got to wonder if we see more given the recent wave. I’m not optimistic about what Manfred the Wonder Commish will do next week.

  5. VaRedsFan

    Detroit radar looks nasty for the next 2-3 hours

  6. Old-school

    Trevor Bauer just unloaded on MLB for mismanaging start times ..letting everyone get fully warmed to go and delaying 8 mins before start after they moved up 5 hours.

    He’s right.
    Big article in WSJ on baseball injuries start/ stops/hurry ups.
    Cards lost Nikolas for the season.
    You wonder if Miley impacted as well..

    • Old-school

      I guess it would be tigers. The home team controls the start, then the umpires control once game the game is live

    • seadog

      Trevor be really pissed right now!! Don’t blame him a bit. Read his Twitter

      Never thought I would see the day when MLB messes things up so bad, that a starting pitcher “All Star” quality would have to unload on Commish while he is “supposed” to be on the mound.

      This has truly become bizarre

    • docproc

      Anyone looking at a radar forecast could have known this game wouldn’t be played at 1:10. They could/should have said a few hours ago (before players warmed up), “Let’s move it back to 6:10.”

    • Mark Moore

      Yeah … none of this is good, especially when you add in the growing concern over COVID postponements. The already weird season gets weirder.

      • seadog

        This has become worse than a putrid B movie. Nobody could have made this stuff up if they tried

        MLB can’t predict weather or COVID. But, there reactions/handling are just pathetic.

  7. Doug Gray

    Postponed. Doubleheader tomorrow at 12:10pm ET

    • renbutler

      Watch as much as you can tomorrow. It might be the last MLB we have in quite a while.

      I’m not generally a pessimist, but I am a realist. Frankly, I’m surprised we got this much baseball.

    • seadog

      Wow. Doug do you think Bauer pitches Sunday

      Also—talk of Tigers bringing up Mize to pitch Sunday. Do you think that happens?

      • seadog

        Potentially we could see Bauer vs Mize in a 7 inning game. That would be awesome. One to remember

      • Doug Gray

        No Mize, already announced. I doubt Bauer pitches, either, because he warmed up and seems furious that he did so only to have the game delayed. My guess is Bauer gets pushed to the next series.

  8. ClevelandRedsFan

    I actually like the Reds chances in the double-header. Two seven inning games, maybe the Reds little league bullpen won’t need to pitch at all!

    • Old-school

      It really is incompetence and poor judgement. Michael Fulmer is coming off Tommy John. He’s not pitching tomorrow.

      What were the Tigers thinking? Clearly , player health not the first thought.

  9. VaRedsFan

    If we schedule enough doubleheaders, maybe our starters can go the full 7 innings, thus, NO BULLPEN

  10. docproc

    Forecast for tomorrow in Detroit is worse than today.

  11. Melvin

    There ya go! Let’s just play doubleheaders. 🙂

  12. seadog

    Rats. I would pay to see Bauer vs Mize in his MLB debut.

  13. Old-school

    New rule should be implemented.

    Weather delays and postponements should be standardized and centralized with input from meteorologist/ MLB office , umpires, and players.

    Rizzo was critical of the Reds earlier this week. Players need to be represented in these decisions.

  14. seadog

    So, if my math is right is right almost 30% if the MLB teams will not be playing today. Due to COVID/weather. MLB will go to double header games of 7 innings
    1. Positive COVID continues to happen.
    2. Pitchers on the IL/DL are in historic #’s
    3. MLB commish says he is not a quitter.
    4. Players continue to opt out

    Am I missing anything? I guess baseball goes on. Next Man up.

    It seems obvious to me that the Owners have decided—We are in it for the $$. Anything to get to that playoff $$ at this point. No regard for player/Coach health at this point

  15. seadog

    Trevor continues to unload—Read his latest tweet. Kind of what I was saying above. He has a point!! He gets it

  16. Tom Mitsoff

    Looks like a bullpen day times two for Detroit Sunday. They have announced RH Rony Garcia and LH Daniel Norris as the starters. Between them, they have three innings pitched so far in the shortened season.

    Haven’t seen a Reds announcement on pitchers, but I am guessing if Bauer doesn’t go it will be DeSclafani and Antone.

    Then against Cleveland, I’d come back with Gray, Bauer, Castillo and Mahle.

  17. ClevelandRedsFan

    The rainouts are probably best for the Reds. It’s annoying as fans because I want to watch baseball too.

    But the Reds are playing a special brand of bad baseball right now. Bullpen is on planet wacko and the hitters are swinging at every single pitch like it’s a meatball right down the middle.

    Without these rainouts, Reds could easily be 2-7.

    The slow starts are killing this franchise. It always takes the Reds about 2 weeks to wake up and be ready to play ball.

    If I’m the Reds, I’m scheduling ALL of the first two weeks of baseball in rainy areas. Hope mother nature cooperates and they can play as few games as possible in the first two weeks.

  18. Melvin

    We need to do better at the DH spot guys, obviously. Colon is not doing us much good when we already have Farmer and VanMeter. Another option to think about if we don’t want to use Aquino or Lorenzen (which I’d like to try either) is Stephenson. Bring him up for Colon. If nothing else he would be a better pinch hit option. What do you guys think?

    • ClevelandRedsFan

      I still like the Winker/Aquino or Ervin DH platoon. All three of those guys have proven they can hit in the bigs with Aquino being inconsistent.

      At some point, it’s on the players to produce.

      • Melvin

        Yeah but Winker is not producing and it’s not a 162 game season. No time to wait.