Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Reds 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 6 0
D-backs 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 2

Steady Freddy Galvis’ two-out, three-run home run in the top of the eighth inning brought the Cincinnati Reds (46-45) from behind and sparked a 4-3 victory and a three-game series sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-47) at Chase Field in Phoenix.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


Today was the second straight day that the sim Reds had a big rally in the eighth. Trailing 3-1, Eugenio Suarez drew a leadoff walk from reliever Kevin Ginkel, and one out later Nick Castellanos walked. After Mike Moustakas lined out, Galvis launched his ninth of the year.

After that, Reds pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Raisel Iglesias put down Arizona in one-two-three fashion in both the eighth and ninth innings to seal the three-game sweep. After Iglesias struck out Starling Marte for the final out, the sim Reds streamed out of the dugout, formed a social-distancing circle around the pitching mound, and started to chant “Melvin! Melvin! Melvin!” as their victorious Redleg Nation commenter/manager dashed to the center of the circle and did a “raise-the-roof” gesture with his hands.

Lorenzen was credited with the victory thanks to his two shutout innings, after which he was moved to center for defensive purposes in the bottom of the ninth.

After starting the seven-game west coast road trip 0-3, the sim Reds turned things around dramatically by winning the final four and finishing 4-3.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

A-Pinch Hit For Desclafani In 7th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Ervin In 8th Inning

B-Pinch Hit For Crichton In 7th Inning
D-Subbed Defensively (C ) For Ginkel In 9th Inning

Standings following the July 5 games: 

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Brewers 48 41 .539 0.0
Cubs 47 44 .516 2.0
Cardinals 47 44 .516 2.0
Reds 46 45 .505 3.0
Pirates 35 54 .393 13.0

The 2020 schedule has the Reds off Monday, and then returning to Great American Ball Park Tuesday to host the Cleveland Indians. Sonny Gray or Wade Miley will pitch for the sim Reds, while right-hander Carlos Carrasco will start for Cleveland.

News/Notes from around baseball

One of the things we would have during the season in the game threads was a section comprised of news and notes for the day. While there’s a lot less going on these days in the baseball world than usual for this time of year, there still are some things that are worth highlighting. When there are, we’ll be adding them to these daily simulation threads.

Some players are still questioning whether they will keep playing in 2020

While there have not been any Cincinnati Reds players opt out of the 2020 season to this point, and none of them have made statements about thinking about it moving forward, others around baseball are doing that. The biggest name so far to opt out of the 2020 season is Los Angeles Dodgres pitcher David Price, but a handful of others – including former Red Mike Leake has also opted out.

Andrew Miller, who was on the MLBPA’s executive committee during negotiations, noted earlier today that there’s still come doubt about the season as a whole.

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals reliever spoke about how he is currently feeling in camp, and how the idea of having fans in the stands as some teams are talking about at some point this season.

And at least as far as we know to this point, it would seem the biggest name we have had show up as COVID-19 positive is Atlanta Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman. And he’s also very symptomatic, with his wife detailing that he’s had body aches, headaches, chills, and a high fever. She also noted that they aren’t even sure how he got it given that they haven’t really gone out anywhere or seen anyone.

Watch the Reds daily practices at GABP

While we aren’t having games, teams around Major League Baseball are trying to give the fans something baseball related to enjoy during this ramp-up period before the season begins. The Reds are broadcasting their practices at Great American Ballpark every day on their social media. Hours and hours of batting practice, live batting practice, outfield drills, bullpen sessions – they’ve got multiple cameras set up. So if you are itching to watch anything and everything, or just have a few minutes to kill – this is your chance. Today we were given the treat of watching Luis Castillo and Michael Lorenzen throw live batting practice to Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Phillip Ervin, and Shogo Akiyama (could have been someone else I’m forgetting at this point).

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Since Melvin was the victorious Redleg Nation commenter/manager today, he has priority for Sunday’s lineup. Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
Jon Davis 9 5 .643
BK 9 6 .600
James Owens 3 2 .600
Melvin 5 4 .556
Gonzo Reds 6 5 .545
Redsfan4life 5 5 .500
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
Don 2 5 .286
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 2 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

41 Responses

  1. Jon Davis

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, Rodriguez
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen(18), *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker, Senzel
    SP – *Bauer, *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo
    RP – *+Reed, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, Kuhnel

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Stephenson, Farmer
    IF – Garcia, +Vanmeter, Blandino
    OF – Aquino, +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Bowman, Hendrix, Shafer, +Smith

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

    • Gonzo Reds

      Alright Melvin! Keep us rolling to the top! Not much hitting but enough. Votto O-fer against a lefty again hmm.

      Guess Miley against the tribe?

      • Melvin

        Thanks Gonzo but for the sake of everyone here I want 14 in a row! It was a tough day for everyone hitting including RH hitters. Casty didn’t have a hit either but he and Votto at least contributed with a walk. Probably will go with Miley. He has pitched really well lately. Willing to listen about everything. Want everyone’s input.

  2. Melvin

    Hahahaha! Chanting ‘Melvin!” is going just a LITTLE too far don’t you think? lol This was a great collective win by all of our coaches here in sim land. As I’ve said before if we get good pitching and decent defense our offense will more often than not find a way to pull us through. Low scoring games are to our advantage. Disco pitched another good game for us. If we keep getting pitching like this we’re pretty much unstoppable. I’m looking forward to getting the results for the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers. We’re getting closer! Congratulations to all our coaches on this win streak. Let’s finish the season winning out….one game at a time.

  3. Don

    way to go Melvin, 1st 4game win streak of the year

    In the Reds live Practice, I do not think that Castillo and Lorenzen gave up a hit. Only Suarez got the bat on the ball and hit it fair. Rest of the hitters looked well behind the pitchers.

    • Melvin

      Great to hear about live Reds baseball. 🙂

    • Jon Davis

      Not to be a stickler but we went 6 in a row earlier this year hmmm?
      But yes Great job to Melvin And here is to many more.

      • Melvin

        I know you did buddy. I assure you I just want to win it all for everyone. We need to win every game.

    • Jon Davis

      Also Don, in a Point of fact and irony the last time we faced Cleveland in the Sim were wins 4 and 5 of the 6 game winning streak. Just for the record.

  4. Don

    Sim Reds have not faced Carlos Carrasco
    In 2019 he had a very strong reverse split that favors RHB vs LHB. This is different from his career which has a slight LHB advantage.

    You have until tomorrow night to think about the lineup but my input is run out the same players with Winker instead of Ervin(not hitting anything since June 1).

    Start Miley instead of Gray. Gray is giving up to many walks in this Sim. Miley is the only Sim Red starting pitcher below his career or 2019 BB/9

    BB/9 inning
    MIley Sim=2.96,Career=2.4,2019=3.3
    Gray Sim=4.04,Career=3.2.2019=3.5
    Castillo Sim=4.54,Career=3.2,2019=3.7
    Bauer Sim=4.24,Career=3.5,2019=3.5
    Disco Sim=2.70,Career=2.4,2019=2.6

    These extra walks are part of why the Sim Reds starting ptching is struggling.

    This would be my order for your reference.
    Akiyama CF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Moose 2B
    Castellanos RF
    Winker LF
    Galvis SS
    Barnhardt C
    Miley P

    • Melvin

      Those are good thoughts. I WILL think about everything. I would like to know, if someone would like to look it up, the speed of our current active roster top to bottom in comparison to each other.

  5. Don

    In the Sim
    Cards and Cubs won, Brewers lost to Cards.
    So Sim Reds 3 back, Cubs and Cards are 2 back.

    • Melvin

      Yeah I noticed that. Cards have to go to D.C. Cubs @ WSox. Brews @ home vs. Tampa.

  6. Don

    On July 22
    Brewers, Reds and Cubs will have played 101 games
    Cards will have 103 games played

    Remaining schedule:
    Reds Schedule – 10 games (opponent win%=0.483)
    July 6 – Off Day
    July7,8 – Indians (55-36)
    July 9 – Off Day
    July 10,11,12 – Pirates (35-54)
    July 13-16 – Off Days
    July 17,18,19 -@ Cubs (47-44)
    July 20 – Off Day
    July 21,22 – Mets (40-50)

    Brewers Schedule – 12 games (opponent win%=0.561)
    July 6- Off
    July 7,8 – Rays (55-37)
    July9,10,11,12-Rockies (42-47)
    July 13-16 – Off Days
    July 17,18,19 – @ Padres (51-39)
    July 20,21,22 – @ Dodgers (59-32)

    Cubs Schedule – 10 games (opponent win%=0.491)
    July 6- Off
    July 7,8 @ White Sox (41-50)
    July 9 – Off
    July 10,11,12 – Braves (48-42)
    July 13-16 – Off Days
    July 17,18,19 – Reds (46-45)
    July 20,21 White Sox (41-50)
    July 22 – Off

    Cards Schedule – 12 games (opponent win%=0.512)
    July 6- Off
    July 7,8,9 – @ Nats (54-37)
    July 10,11,12 – @ Rays (55-37)
    July 13-16 – Off Days
    July 17,18,19 – Mets (40-50)
    July 20,21,22 – Giants (37-53)

  7. Melvin

    Thanks! 🙂 I have a question for you Tom. If I we use Miley on Tuesday do we then have the option of moving Gray to the pen?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Just for one game, or permanently?

      • Melvin

        I’m not sure about that one. We’ll need, from what I can see, a fourth starter two more times after Tuesday. I doubt, at least for now, anyone will pitch Gray over anyone else but it’s possible if say MIley goes really bad. I guess we could move him down to the pen permanently and then move him back to the rotation if need be. Does that sound right?

      • Don

        My input is Gray to bullpen until July 25th (next time there is a need for the 5th starter). There are 13 games in 13 days starting July 21st so we need a 5 man rotation then.

        This would be my input on the rotation until we are done managing.
        Either Bauer or Castillo should get 3 starts in the next 10 games, I am going with Bauer as he has been the best Sim Reds starter so far.
        Castillo has the gems but Bauer has been more consistent.

        Past
        July 1 – Gray
        July 2 – Miley
        July 3 – Castillo
        July 4 – Bauer
        July 5 – Disco
        July 6 – Off Day
        July7,8 – Indians (55-36). Miley, Castillo
        July 9 – Off Day
        July 10,11,12 – Pirates (35-54) Bauer, Disco,Miley
        July 13-16 – Off Days
        July 17,18,19 -@ Cubs (47-44) Bauer, Castillo, Disco
        July 20 – Off Day
        July 21,22 – Mets (40-50) Miley, Bauer

        Have Strat-O then put Gray in after the next Miley start when they take over.
        July 23 – Mets – Castillo
        July 24,25,26 – Rockies – Disco, Miley, Gray

      • Melvin

        I’m confused buddy. I thought our last game is on the 22nd.

      • Melvin

        I think I understand. We need to set our entire roster after our last game on the 22nd the way we want it for Strato to finish it for us. Correct?

      • Don

        The last game we manage is the 22nd.

        Strat-o-Matioc told Tom (I remember reading here) that they are going to play out the full 162 game season before the first real games start all in on one day.

        Seeing if we can suggest the rotation to Strat-O after we are done managing.

        We should also think if we want AlfRod on the roster for the last 61 games or should we move him and bring up someone else for Strat-o to use. Farmer or JVM??

      • Don

        You figured it out while I as writing.

      • Don

        Lorenzen has also seems to be pitching better since he is not starting in the field.

  8. Jon Davis

    Ok as far as who should pitch I am leaning towards Miley since he has been better in the Sim and beat Cleveland when we played them before giving up 0 runs and striking out 7 in 6.1 innings of work. I am good with Gray too because I think as most of us probably would agree that Gray like Castillo is due for some good games and isn’t this bad. The other reason to go Gray is that Cleveland’s top 3 hitters in the Sim all hit LHP better. The Switch hitters Lindor and Santana both lean that way and Reyes there best Sim hitter is the epitome of the RHB that crushes LHP.

    So bottom line I am leaning Miley but I believe it is close and that Gray isn’t a bad choice.

  9. Jon Davis

    My lineup suggestion is looking pretty standard. Akiyama, Votto, Moustakas, Winker, Galvis, Suarez and Barnhart, are obvious choices just leaving the last OF spot. I can make a case for all including Lorenzen but I think it comes down to Castellanos and Payton. My gut says Castellanos by a hair. So the order and formation I would go with is

    Akiyama CF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Moustakas 2B
    Winker LF
    Castellanos RF
    Galvis SS
    Barnhart C
    Miley P

    Ok that’s my 67 cents Good Luck Melvin keep it going

    • Melvin

      Thanks Jon. We all appreciate everything you do for us. I would like to know the speed comparisons between Castellanos, Galvis, Barnhart and Casali if you or anyone has that info. Thanks.

      • Jon Davis

        I don’t have any stats for you but I would guess Castellanos=Meh, Galvis=Eh, Barnhart=Oof and Casali=uhh. Now that is some prime grade A jocular scouting there and I hope it helps.

      • BK

        Sprint speeds in ft/sec from “Statcast” (fastest to slowest); league average is 27:

        1. Castellano: 27.9
        2. Galvis: 25.9
        3. Casali: 25.2
        4: Barnhart: 24.1 (team’ slowest runner)

        Senzel at 29.4 is the team’s fastest runner … just ahead of Lorenzen.

      • Melvin

        Thanks guys. Castellanos actually has decent speed which in itself probably makes him a better outfielder than Winker. I’m sure Winker’s speed is around Barnhart’s.

      • BK

        Winker is 25.6 … just slower than Galvis and Moustakas. Faster than Casali, Votto and Barnhart.

      • Melvin

        Thanks BK. Winker is faster than i thought. I give him that. Honestly I can’t tell it though.

  10. Melvin

    Okay gentlemen. Tuesday is our next “7th game of the WS”. I have a little diffferent thinking going on with the lineup. Think it through and let me know what you think. This is a rough draft.

    Akiyama CF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Moose 2B
    Galvis SS
    Winker LF
    Barnhart C
    Castellanos RF
    Miley P

    Galvis is an RBI machine considering he’s spent most time at or near the bottom. This will have our three RBI guys 3-5 in the order. Barnhart and Winker in no danger of passing Galvis or anyone. Casty 8th with good speed for the pitcher to bunt over. I know Galvis batting higher than 6th hasn’t been great. I have confidence in him though. I know Casty is lacking in OBP.

    • Don

      Melvin,

      The 4 or 5 times we have started Galvis anywhere but 7,8,9 he is hitless. For some reason he hits best in the bottom 3rdin this SIm and real life.

      Castellanos is not near the top in RBI’s as he pretty much did not play but PH for 4+ weeks in May.

      My input would be to swap Castellanos and Galvis

      • Melvin

        I know Don. I’m thinking about that. It doesn’t make sense but trying to go against Strato is a dangerous proposition.

    • BK

      My suggestion: no changes to the first 4. Next 5:

      LF – Winker
      RF – Castellanos
      SS – Galvis
      C- Barnhart

      Essentially flow the bottom half of the lineup by OPS. Overall, I think that approach maximizes our odds.

      Don’s approach is also excellent.

      • Melvin

        Just wish Barnhart was faster. LOL Wish Strato would tell us home many sac attempts failed and when/who.

      • BK

        I know … absolutely get your point about the guy in front of the pitcher has to be fast enough to advance on a bunt attempt. Miley has about 1 successful sacrifice bunt for every 10 PA in his career. Although, he’s only had 46 PA in the last 4 years spending much of his time in the AL.

  11. Melvin

    Okay gentlemen (coaches). This is it. Gotta win. Thanks for all of your advice in helping me think this through.

    Akiyama CF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Moose 2B
    Winker LF
    Castellanos RF
    Barnhart C
    Galvis SS
    Miley P

    Looks like Miley and Castillo, our two coming up, beat em last time. Need another great game out of Miley. Tom, if it’s possible and okay, go ahead and put Gray in the pen at least for tomorrow. He’s not doing us any good as the odd starter out and could help. Thank you.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Melvin, I will make that request when I send your lineup in shortly.