Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Reds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 9 10 2
D-backs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 6 1

A scoreless game through seven innings became a laugher when the Cincinnati Reds (45-45) scored nine runs in the top of the eighth to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-46) by a 9-2 score at Chase Field in Phoenix.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


The sim Reds saved their Fourth of July fireworks until their eighth at-bat. Arizona starter and loser Madison Bumgarner, who had limited Cincinnati to four hits through seventh innings, had the wheels fall off. Nick Senzel led off the inning pinch-hitting for starter and winner Trevor Bauer by drawing a walk. Shogo Akiyama grounded back to Bumgarner, who threw it away at first base to move Senzel to third and Akiyama to second. Joey Votto doubled them both home to give the sim Reds a 2-0 lead, which was the end of the line for Bumgarner.

Cincinnati then unloaded on the Arizona bullpen. Junior Guerra immediately surrendered a run-scoring double to Eugenio Suarez, later a run-scoring double to Phillip Ervin, then departed with the bases loaded. Steady Freddy Galvis greeted reliever Merrill Kelly with a grand slam homer, and Akiyama rounded out the scoring with a solo shot.

Bauer had his best stuff on this day. In his seven innings, he allowed only one hit while striking out 10 and walking none. Bauer lost his no-hit bid when Starling Marte singled with one out in the sixth inning. His nine wins top the sim Reds staff.

“Everything felt great,” Strat-O-Matic quoted Bauer as saying. “I had a good fastball. I felt I could throw it by everybody tonight.”

Lucas Sims was roughed up a bit in relief, but a nine-run lead meant there were no worries for winning Redleg Nation commenter/manager Melvin, who recorded his third straight victory.

Curt Casali reached base four times on two hits and two walks. He scored immediately ahead of Galvis on the grand slam.

The victory pulled the sim Reds within one game of the Cubs and Cardinals, who are tied for second. The first-place Brewers defeated St. Louis, and the Cubs fell to Tampa Bay. Cincinnati remains four games behind first-place Milwaukee.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

A-Pinch Hit For Bauer In 8th Inning

B-Pinch Hit For Kelly In 8th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Bradley In 9th Inning

Standings following the July 4 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Brewers 48 40 .545 0.0
Cubs 46 44 .511 3.0
Cardinals 46 44 .511 3.0
Reds 45 45 .500 4.0
Pirates 35 53 .398 13.0

The 2020 schedule has the Reds again at Chase Field in Phoenix Sunday going for the sweep of the three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Anthony DeSclafani pitches for the sim Reds, while left-hander Robbie Ray will start for the D-backs.

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Since Melvin was the victorious Redleg Nation commenter/manager today, he has priority for Sunday’s lineup. Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
Jon Davis 9 5 .643
BK 9 6 .600
James Owens 3 2 .600
Gonzo Reds 6 5 .545
Redsfan4life 5 5 .500
Melvin 4 4 .500
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
Don 2 5 .286
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 2 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

28 Responses

  1. Jon Davis

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, Rodriguez
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen(18), *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker, Senzel
    SP – *Bauer, *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo
    RP – *+Reed, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, Kuhnel

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Stephenson, Farmer
    IF – Garcia, +Vanmeter, Blandino
    OF – Aquino, +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Bowman, Hendrix, Shafer, +Smith

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

  2. BK

    Ray’s number look pretty much on track with his 2019 stats. RH batters enjoy a 160 point OPS advantage against him. Also, he gives up 1.7 HR per 9 innings which is a little worse than last year. Something close to today’s lineup should work.

  3. Melvin

    Yahoo! Bauer came through and most everyone else did too! Three in a row! Let’s GO! One game back of the Cards and Cubs which we need to pass before we go after those Brews. Votto is “Votto”. Two more hits and not just singles. Hitting .412 since IL and total .287/.398 OBP. Good news for all those who thought he forgot how to hit LH pitching. He’s back. Ervin and Moose contributed after our discussion yesterday, and at least for one game, Galvis batting 8th paid off big time.

    • Gonzo Reds

      Good job Melvin. Guess since we’re facing a lefty we almost have to get Lorenzen in there since he’s so close to 20. Senzel got the rally started so perhaps he earned a start at 2B.

    • BK

      Up front, I agreed wholeheartedly with your lineup, so please don’t take this as criticism. That said, I think there’s a good chance we score another run if Casali batted 7th, Bauer 8th, and Galvis 9th. Here’s how.

      1. Top of the 3rd. Casali leads off w/a single. What if Bauer followed with a sacrifice instead of the Galvis pop out. Now Casali is on 2B, 1 out. Galvis then bats 9th and presumably same outcome (pop out). Akiyama singles and Casali almost certainly scores. Reds go to the bottom of the 3rd up 1-0.

      2. Casali next bats in the 5th with one out and singles. This would have set up a second opportunity for Bauer to make a “productive” out. Instead Galvis fouls out to the catcher (2 outs) and Bauer K’s to end the inning.

      3. Casali’s third PA comes in the top of the 7th with 2 outs following a Moustakas double. The D-Backs intentionally walk Casali to face Galvis. Here’s the downside: in the 7th inning with a man in scoring position does Bell stick with Bauer for another inning or pull him for a PH with the game scoreless, or if we’re lucky the Reds up 1-0?

      4. Had Galvis hit 9th and everything else played out the same, he still hits a Grand Slam.

      I would argue, scenario #3 is the outcome we’re trying to avoid–pulling a pitcher early to generate offense. That’s a definite risk if you bat the pitcher higher than 9th. However, the first two trips through the batting order would have resulted in our pitcher having the opportunity to help the offense–a big advantage given that Bauer has a career OPS of .245 AND must bat.

      As stated yesterday, the math gurus will tell you the tactic of batting the P 8th can produce a very small advantage. With a loaded offense, the Cubs really exploited the advantage into something a little more tangible.

      I’m not advocating for hitting the pitcher 8th every day or even at all, although I do think the Reds have the right personnel to use this tactic from time to time. However, I do think it’s good to have a decent OBP guy in front of the pitcher. Pitchers are likely to make an out every time they come to the plate. I think there is a definite advantage if those outs are productive.

  4. Melvin

    Okay gentlemen. I want you to help me manage the next game like it was the 7th game of the World Series. Only difference will be we don’t have our other starters available out of the pen. Projected lineup for debate:

    Akiyama CF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Castellanos RF
    Ervin LF
    Moose 2B
    Casali C
    Galvis SS
    Disco P

    • Gonzo Reds

      One thing I’ve noticed from managing is that both times I rolled a lineup over it did nothing the next time out. I’d make some changes myself but certainly your call.

      • Gonzo Reds

        With that being said I almost have to suggest a lineup to pick and choose from or ignore as is your right. LOL I also am keeping in mind BK’s stats showing righties well out perform lefties against Ray…

        Lorenzen-CF (18 going for 19 – and don’t want Aki to be injured again)
        Votto-1B (lefty but he’s on fire and his career history is he hits lefties)
        Ervin-LF (crushes lefties no brainer)
        Suarez-3B (our HR leader against Ray is a HR party waiting to happen)
        Castellanos-RF (0-5 today but another power hitter opp side ag Ray)
        Casali (platoon call)
        Rodriguez (giving Galvis a break esp with Senzel to play in 9 hole)
        P
        Senzel-2B (earned a start and give the lefty Moose a seat)

    • BK

      My suggestion (see far too lengthy explanation above) is to flip Casali and Galvis placing the slightly higher OBP guy in front of the DeSclafani. Of note, Casali is only slightly slower than Galvis per Statcast data, so your not giving up much in the speed department … something I know you value in front of the Pitcher ala Sweet Lou.

    • Jon Davis

      Nice job on the streak Melvin hope you have many more in the tank. I would play Lorenzen, since he is so close to 2 way status, and Senzel. That is just my gut feeling on it but just slightly so just my 2 cents. Go get the Sweep!

  5. Melvin

    Happy 4th of July gentlemen! May everyone enjoy themselves celebrating the birth of the greatest country on earth. God Bless America – Let Freedom Ring!

    • BK

      Thank you and same to you and everyone else! This has been a tough year, but I’ve traveled all over the world. I’m very proud to be an American and tremendously thankful to those before us who made this nation the best the world has ever seen.

  6. Don

    Great pitching by Bauer and great for team to get so many hits in a row.

    Sim Reds did not face Ray in the Sim.

    Real Reds Lifetime vs Robbie Ray
    Casili 1-4
    Ervin 1-4
    Galvis 9-23,2BB
    Suarez 3-8,2B,HR
    Votto 1-8,2BB
    Mouse 0-2
    Barnhardt 1-4 (2015&2016-Switch hitting)

    Ray’s 2019 splits are heavy favorites to use Right Handed Batters

    I think the only change from Today’s lineup may be Senzel or Mouse.
    Mouse was 1-3,2B vs Baumgarner today.
    I would think stay with Mouse run the same players out for Sunday to complete the Sweep.

    Looks like that is what you are doing and it is the right lineup.
    Have the Sim Reds finish the 7 game road trip 4-3 winning 5 in a row.

      • Don

        need a strong pitching performance from Disco. Hopefully like Bauer had today.

        Looking at the win/loss streaks for the Sim Reds.
        This is the 5th, 3 game winning streak. This is the one which is needed to make the 1st 4 game winning streak.

        There has been four 3 game and two 4 game loosing steaks for the Sim Reds.

        These Sim Reds needs this 4th win in a row so that they are above 500 as they go home with an off day on Monday.
        The Sim Reds play 7 of the last 10 before the real baseball season starts.
        Indians -2
        Pirates – 3
        @Cubs for 3
        Mets -2
        (real baseball starts on the 23rd)

  7. Melvin

    Amended Lineup

    Akiyama CF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Ervin LF
    Castellanos RF
    Moose 2B
    Galvis SS
    Casali C
    Disco P

    Thanks Gonzo and BK…and everyone. You are all great coahes.

  8. Melvin

    Discussion is still open if you’d like to add something.

    • Gonzo Reds

      I’d like to add something… baseball hot dogs and apple pie… happy 4th!

      • Don

        happy 4th all. I got some baseball fix today watching the Reds workout live stream on Twitter today.

        Casteallanos looks like a monster at the plate in his BP.

      • Melvin

        You stole what I was going to say. 🙂 That’s from a Chevy commercial. It goes, “Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet.” 🙂

  9. Melvin

    America, sweet beautiful America, God shed His grace on thee. May He continue to do so. 🙂

  10. Tom Mitsoff

    I have Melvin’s amended lineup. Go for the sweep!

    • Melvin

      Okay fellow coaches. Let’s win the rest….one game at a time.