Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Nationals 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 1 7 12 1
Reds 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 5 12 0

A four-run rally in the top of the fifth inning against Sonny Gray was the deciding factor for the Washington Nationals (50-32) in their 7-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds (40-42) in the first game of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


The sim Reds had tied the score at 1-1 in the bottom of the fourth inning on Gray’s RBI double off Nationals starter and winner Joe Ross. But the visitors responded immediately against Gray, with Starlin Castro’s two-run single being the big hit in the rally.

Relievers Michael Lorenzen and Cody Reed allowed the Nationals to tack on single runs in both of their last two at-bats, and those runs proved important when Cincinnati rallied for three runs in the bottom of the ninth. The big hit was a two-out single by Eugenio Suarez which scored Freddy Galvis, and Shogo Akiyama scored on the same play when Castro committed an error. But the game ended when Nationals closer Sean Doolittle induced Mike Moustakas, representing the tying run, to hit a popup to Castro.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

B-Pinch Hit For Guerra In 7th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Elias In 9th Inning

A-Pinch Hit For Sims In 6th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Winker In 8th Inning
E-Pinch Hit For Reed In 9th Inning

Standings following the June 26 games: 

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cardinals 44 38 .537 0.0
Brewers 42 38 .525 1.0
Cubs 43 39 .524 1.0
Reds 40 42 .488 4.0
Pirates 34 47 .420 9.5

The 2020 schedule has the Reds hosting the Washington Nationals in the second of a three-game set Saturday. Wade Miley will start for the sim Reds, and left-hander Patrick Corbin will pitch for the Nationals.

News/Notes from around baseball

One of the things we would have during the season in the game threads was a section comprised of news and notes for the day. While there’s a lot less going on these days in the baseball world than usual for this time of year, there still are some things that are worth highlighting. When there are, we’ll be adding them to these daily simulation threads.

The Cincinnati Reds have signed 1st round pick Austin Hendrick

Austin Hendrick has signed with the Cincinnati Reds, inking a deal under slot value. The 1st round draft pick is the second player from the Reds draft class to sign, joining 4th round selection Mac Wainwright.

Cincinnati Reds sign 1st round pick Austin Hendrick for $4M

Jeff Passan on playing through a pandemic and where it could go wrong

Over at ESPN today, Jeff Passan looks at the 2020 season and where things could potentially go wrong.

It’s important to understand that baseball does not exist in a vacuum. The sport’s reopening will add tens of thousands of interactions, each carrying a level of hazard, every day. The risk for individual players, because of their age and general health, is minimal but still very real. The risk for older employees — managers, coaches, training staff — is far more palpable. The risk for the sport is, quite literally, immeasurable.

There’s a whole lot of stuff from Passan in the article – he addresses 20 different questions/points. It’s a long read, but there’s plenty of information in there that could be worth your time if you’re interested.

The Cincinnati Red-dundancies

Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic decided that each team’s Taxi Squad needed their own name. He had some of his own, and he took some suggestions, too. For the Cincinnati Reds he came up with The Red-dundancies. Some of the other ones are a lot better, but you can only work with so much with each name. Do you have any good ones for the Reds?

 

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
BK 9 5 .643
Jon Davis 7 4 .636
James Owens 3 2 .600
Redsfan4life 5 4 .556
Gonzo Reds 6 5 .545
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
Don 2 5 .286
Melvin 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 2 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

41 Responses

  1. Jon Davis

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, Rodriguez
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen(15), *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker, Senzel
    SP – *Bauer, *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo
    RP – *+Reed, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, Kuhnel

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Stephenson(Can Return 6/28), Farmer
    IF – Garcia, +Vanmeter, Blandino, *+Dietrich
    OF – Aquino, +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Bowman, *Jones(Can Return 7/4), Hendrix, Shafer, +Smith

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon, Trahan
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

    Reply
  2. Jon Davis

    I have been thinking about the lineup since yesterday so here is my suggested lineup.

    1. Akiyama – LF
    2. Lorenzen – CF
    3. Suarez – 3B
    4. Ervin – RF
    5. Castellanos – 1B
    6. Senzel – 2B
    7. Casali – C
    8. Miley – P
    9. Galvis – SS

    Reply
    • Redsfan4life

      Jon,that is the lineup I would have made out. With one exception. I would flip Galvis and Senzel.
      Either way you got my vote.

      Reply
    • Gonzo Reds

      Love your lineup against a lefty and as you know I always put Galvis at 9. If I was to make a change it would be to flip Senzel and Casali instead. You also have my vote.

      Reply
    • Mark Moore

      I’m good with this. I’d actually keep Galvis at #9 since he seems to be hitting and we need runners on base ahead of Shogo.

      Reply
    • Tom Mitsoff

      Allow me to pass along something I just discovered which surprised me. Galvis’ lifetime batting average batting lefthanded (vs. righthanders) is .242, and is .262 batting righthanded (vs. lefthanders). (According to Fangraphs)

      I suspected it would be the opposite.

      I have no idea whether or not this is reflected on Galvis’ card or if sim performance has reflected it at all.

      Reply
      • BK

        I haven’t tracked his batting stats, but anecdotally Galvis seems to do better against RHP than LHP.

    • Melvin

      Jon. I would seriously consider not taking Votto out of the Lineup. He’s hitting like crazy lately even better than Aki. We need him.

      Reply
      • Jon Davis

        Yeah that was the final decision I was wrestling with but ultimately decided to go this way because I didn’t want to sit and couldn’t decide whether to sit Ervin, Castellanos or Senzel. I also gave a little tiny bit of consideration to playing Rodriguez at SS, even though he would have been my last choice to call up.

  3. Melvin

    Unfortunately we failed to gain ground on the Cards as they lost to Boston. At least we didn’t lose any. Cubs and Brews won so it’s getting real interesting. We had enough hitting and from what I can see our defense was solid. Gray let us down though. Looks that the AlfRod experiment worked in that we had the right people pinch hitting. Don’t agree with Stratos move to PH for Winker with Senzel though. Winker is clearly the better hitter and I don’t believe he is as bad vs. LH pitching as the stats say. A better move would have been to let him hit and then sub Senzel in for defense IMO. Oh well. Nothing we can do about that. Just one game. Have to keep pushing hard. We are capable of a long winning streak….Votto keeps hitting!

    Reply
  4. Melvin

    Here are some thoughts on pitching guys. I’m not exactly sure yet what I think is best so I will wait to vote later. For tomorrow:

    1) Obviously we can pitch Miley as scheduled, send down Stephenson, bring up Bowman.
    2) Have BP day tomorrow, send down Stephenson, bring up Bowman, move Miley to pen.
    3) Bring up someone like Mahle for the start tomorrow, send down Stephenson, move Miley to the pen, then send down Mahle/? the next day, bring up Bowman.

    If you want to vote on any of this or have your own ideas and want to vote on something other than the three options above for our pitching, again for Tom’s sake, please put it at the beginning of your reply then any comments afterward.

    Reply
    • BK

      I do not want to try to sneak Stephenson down. His ERA is a bit high, the rest of his numbers are good: allowing less than a hit per inning, striking out 11.9 per 9 innings. We don’t have a lot of access to advanced pitching stats, but we do know, ERA is a terrible metric for relief pitchers in particular. Moreover, he doesn’t have options, so this move hurts our depth.

      It won’t be too long before Lorenzen will be a two-way player and we can send Rodriguez down and recall Bowman. We just need a little patience.

      Reply
      • Melvin

        Bk, it seems as you and I are always having discussions. Hope you don’t take it personally as your obviously a smart guy. We just have different ways of thinking often times. In regards to your comments I don’t believe we would lose him (Stephenson) if he was sent down. We didn’t lose Dietrich. Anyone correct me if I’m wrong but we don’t know of anyone who has been lost do we? If we wait until Lorenzen has two way status at the current rate the season will be close to if not over.

      • BK

        Melvin … we won’t know if we lose him, until we try to recall him. There’s no waiver process. It’s really up to Strato how they want to treat it. I think most would agree, if we DFA Stephenson in a real season. Expect Strato to treat the transaction accordingly.

      • Melvin

        BK, Maybe I’m missing something. Please explain how you know we won’t know if we’ve lost him or not until we try to recall him. Jon is clearly in the dark about this as well as he has him on his updated roster.

      • BK

        Melvin, see my note to Tom. Stephenson does not have an option remaining. That’s the concern. If the real Reds tried to send him down, he’d go through the DFA process and could be claimed. He’d certainly be claimed given that he is performing near or above league average in nearly every metric.

        Strato pushed back on us several weeks back when we tried to drop Miley. They were nice enough to send us an email and let us have a second shot. My concern is weakening the overall team. It takes more than 8 relievers to get through a season. I hope we’ll have real baseball next month, but if we don’t we should not fritter away our depth for such a small potential advantage.

        Probabilities are that Bowman’s ERA will go up with more innings and Stephenson’s will come down. I don’t see the risk/reward working in our favor on this one.

      • Melvin

        BK, I guess we’er in a different mode more than anything else. My main concern right at the moment is not a players over all stats but more of what he’s been doing lately. The mode thing I mean is that I’m in a crunch time do everything we can win right now mode because I believe we don’t have much time left. You, if I read you correct, are in more of a long season mode. Now if Stephenson has been doing well lately than maybe I’m wrong. Admittedly I don’t know as much about that as I should. But if he’s been in a slump or has been hurting us, and we know Bowman has been doing a good job, I say bring him up no matter what. What have we got to lose? It’s a good note you sent to Tom btw. He (Tom) has mentioned that he doesn’t think Strato is holding us strictly to the option thing. The case with Miley was special because, as they said, we just signed him to a two year contract and he was pitching mostly as expected so they didn’t want to hurt the integrity of the sim season. Their main intent, if I read them right, is to make sure someone doesn’t do something crazy like the Miley thing or something else like sending Votto down for a minor league guy. They want to keep the crazy stuff from happening. They don’t want to hinder us from putting the best team we can together.

      • BK

        Melvin,
        I’m not even sure I agree your proposals are going to help us win now. Bowman is a former Rule 5 pickup that was released when injured and then signed by the Reds. Stephenson has an amazing arm. Both had good 2019s, but Stephenson has late inning reliever capability. Bowman is a 6-7 inning guy. I don’t see that as a good tradeoff. These guys are on different talent levels even if the stats don’t show it in a small sample.

        Rodriguez is a fringe prospect w/no bat. I’m not convinced Strato will consider him versatile–he’s played nearly every minor league game at SS. If a game goes into extra innings, he’ll have to play and bat. That’s not going to help. There aren’t many teams that would place a field only guy on their 26-man roster when they have other players that could bring some more to the table. I respect the group chose another path, but there was no consensus. The nice thing is Dietrich is not a top talent and is easily replaceable. So the risk of the Rodriguez move is pretty low.

        Win now, means we put the best players on the team and let them do their thing. Stephenson has much better stuff than Bowman and their stats will absolutely converge with time. The risk associated with this proposal is much higher in my opinion.

        I’m not being contrary, I’m offering my thoughts on how I think it’s best to proceed. It’s been nice to talk baseball even if it is fake.

    • Melvin

      Stephenson down – Bowman up

      After thinking it through this is my best gut feeling and to keep Miley starting for now. Bowman has been pretty good for us and we can use him.

      Reply
      • BK

        I’m a no vote for this proposal. Stephenson’s ERA is a mere 5% below league average. His ERA+ last year was 120. His FIP backed up that is ERA was solid. We should expect improvement as the rest of his numbers are good. Bowman is solid, too. It’s good to have a clear choice to turn to at AAA in the event of injury. Stephenson is out of options. Don’t expect Strato to let us recall him if we send him down.

  5. Melvin

    Jon, Just to make sure I’m not mistaken about Votto I checked the last several games.

    2-5
    3-4
    2-4
    2-4
    1-4
    2-5
    2-4
    1-4
    1-4
    2-5
    He’s batting .410 since coming back with 10 game hitting streak.

    Your call though Jon of course. I’m glad you didn’t play AlfRod at SS. He should only be used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner in my opinion.

    Reply
    • Jon Davis

      Yeah I know and it hurts but it’s Corbin so by the slimmest of margins I stick with my gut. If I have my way the second we chase Corbin out of the game, which I hope will be very early, then in comes Votto.

      Reply
  6. Melvin

    Jon’s lineup is very good and this is just an alternative lineup to think about should it help anyone. Not necessarily asking for it to be voted for. Just trying to help us win any way I can.

    Akiyama RF
    Votto 1B
    Ervin LF
    Suarez 3B
    Lorenzen CF
    Senzel 2B
    Casali C
    Miley P
    Galvis SS

    Reply
    • BK

      This one has my vote. Our BABIP this month is .287 (essentially where the Reds were in 2019). Our defense this month has been much, much better. The improvement actually persist into May.

      We’ve made two adjustments, we stopped playing players out of position. Our BABIP with Winker or Castellanos at 1B is .326 (this would have been in the bottom 3 MLB-wide last year). Playing a player out of position means 4% more hits than if we put out a good defense. Second, the improvement appears to follow when we quit starting Senzel in CF.

      Reply
      • Melvin

        BK, the stats certainly seem to back up what you’re saying about defense as I believe it has been better too especially in the infield. Not saying you’re wrong about Senzel but if you’re right then Strato, again, is not being consistent since they subbed him in for Winker today, moved Aki over, and put him in CF.

      • BK

        Strato substitutes based on the depth chart. In their normal game we (the Manager) would set that. I’m not sure if Tom provides a depth chart to Strato, or if Strato adjust based on our tendencies.

        For example, I’ve noticed when Lorenzen enters as a defensive replacement, he doesn’t displace Akiyama (our starting CF) from CF (which would be our preference). We’ve played Castellanos enough at 1B, that he’s certainly on our depth chart there.

      • BK

        As for Senzel, I would really have to do a lot of manual data entry to confirm my theory, so let’s just call it a theory. That said, the dates for defensive improvement align very closely to when we collectively grw tired of his anemic offense. I’m not sure why he has such a weak card, but Strato has given us top tier cards for Ervin and Akiyama.

      • Melvin

        Maybe Strato does take into account the injury factor somehow since Suarez is playing sub par defense as well. I don’t know.

      • BK

        Suarez has errors and errors matter. But defenders that get to more balls make more errors than those that cover less ground.

        Senzel has an extensive injury history and only began in the OF last year. IMO, he did well defensively, all things considered. But defensive metrics show him average to a shade below. His injury affected his performance last year. I think the short track record and injury affected Strato’s eval of him.

        Suarez has a long track record at 3B. Metrics show a slight decline for him, but at his age we shouldn’t see a big dropoff. I think his errors will even out over the full season. Our BABIP looks just fine with him starting at 3B.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        @BK — My observation is that the Strat-O-Matic algorithm configures the outfielders (and other players) in the best possible defensive configuration based on who is in the game. In today’s game, Senzel pinch-hit for Winker, and they inserted Senzel into center and moved Akiyama to left. My understanding is that means that in their ratings, Senzel is better in center field than Akiyama. Which is not at all out of the realm of reality. We just haven’t seen enough of Akiyama to know.

  7. BK

    Tom, we’ve had this discussion for a while. When we look at the Strato transactions, all we see is Player A was “sent down” and Player B was “called up.” Strato doesn’t publish whether a player without options is lost when their team tries to send them to the minors.

    My understanding is that if we send down a player that has no ‘options’ (i.e., one who must go through the DFA process), Strato will decide whether the player was “claimed” or if they make it through “outright waivers” and remain in the Red’s minor league system. Is that a correct understanding? We’d like to understand if there is risk in losing these types of players or if Strato doesn’t hold us to the normal DFA rules.

    Reply
    • Tom Mitsoff

      Give me the name of a player I can ask them about.

      Reply
      • Tom Mitsoff

        I will ask when I send the lineup tonight. Hopefully they will answer soon — probably no sooner than the morning.

  8. Tom Mitsoff

    Jon received three endorsements and Melvin received one for lineups, so I’m sending Jon’s to Strat-O-Matic. The Stephenson down and Bowman up proposal received only two yes votes, and three are needed.

    Reply
  9. Don

    Tom,

    Here are a three transaction that are examples from other teams where the player cannot have options and is listed as sent down.
    Can these players be recalled by their team or were they waived so they are off the SIM Team forever? Could the Sim Reds or any other team placed a waiver claim on these players?

    June 10
    NYM- OF Yoenis Cespedes activated from IL, 1B Matt Adams sent down
    There is no way which Adams has options, 8 MLB seasons.

    June 13
    TEX- OF Joey Gallo activated from IL. LHP Joe Palumbo called up, OF Scott Heineman and RHP Luis Garcia sent down
    Luis Garcia has 4 of his 7 MLB seasons of 60+ appearances, he has to be out of options? Can he be recalled in the future for the Rangers?

    June 23
    CHC- OF Steven Souza Jr activated from IL. 2B Jason Kipnis and RHP Adbert Alzolay sent down, RHP Brendan Morrow called up
    Kipnis has 9 years of MLB experience, was he waived or can be called up?

    Reply
    • Melvin

      Trying Matt Adams as a pinch hitter would be cool but I don’t think it will happen. Strato does not want to mess with roster spots in any way I don’t think through trades, claims or whatever. What we have in our organization at the beginning is what we keep. Could be wrong. No evidence to date otherwise though.

      Reply

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