Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Reds 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 5 0
Cardinals 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 X 3 9 1

Three early runs by the St. Louis Cardinals (42-35) stood up for an important 3-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds (38-40) at Busch Stadium.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


The sim Reds were hoping for a three-game sweep of the NL Central-leading Redbirds, which would have pulled Cincinnati within two and a half games of the Cards.

St. Louis scored two in the first on a two-run single by Yadier Molina, and the third run in the third inning came on a bases-loaded infield hit by Tyler O’Neill, all off starter and loser Wade Miley.

Eugenio Suarez hit a solo home run, his team-leading 24th, in the top of the fourth, to make it a 3-1 game. It stayed that way until Mike Moustakas’ RBI single in the eighth inning which made it 3-2. But the rally ended when Suarez hit a fly ball out with the tying run on second base.

Shogo Akiyama’s third-inning single extended his hitting streak to 27 games, longest in this sim season by seven games. He now has enough plate appearances to appear in these other league-leading categories:

  • batting average, .369 (first)
  • batting average against righthanded pitching, .414 (first)
  • on-base percentage, .423 (third)
  • runs created per 27 outs, 10.5 (tied for third; this means if you had a batting order of Akiyama one through nine, you’d average 10.5 runs per game)
  • total average (bases/outs), 1.075 (sixth)
  • OPS, 1.014 (eighth)
  • slugging percentage, .591 (eighth)

It would have been very interesting to see his statistics (and the team’s won-loss record) if he had not missed 20 games due to injury. A legitimate argument can be made that he could be considered the best position player in the sim league to date.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

B-Pinch Hit For Kuhnel In 8th Inning
D-Pinch Ran For Barnhart In 9th Inning
E-Pinch Hit For Sims In 9th Inning

A-Pinch Hit For Martinez In 6th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Miller In 8th Inning

Standings following the June 20 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cardinals 42 35 .545 0.0
Cubs 41 37 .526 1.5
Brewers 40 36 .526 1.5
Reds 38 40 .487 4.5
Pirates 32 44 .421 9.5

The 2020 schedule has the Reds off Monday, then returning home on Tuesday to take on the Cubs, who have been a particular pain in the side of the sim Reds to date, winning six of eight. Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Reds, and lefthander Jose Quintana will pitch for Chicago.

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Jon Davis 6 3 .667
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
BK 9 5 .643
James Owens 3 2 .600
Redsfan4life 5 4 .556
Gonzo Reds 6 5 .545
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
Don 1 4 .200
Melvin 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 2 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

61 Responses

    • BK

      Doug, thanks for keeping this going while Tom was out!

  1. Don

    Welcome back Tom, hope you had a great vacation.

    Tough loss today, but took 2 of 3 from cards to gain 1 game. Gonzo’s lineups won 3 of last 4.

    Sim Reds could have really used the sweep.

    Next up Cubs @ Wrigley starting Tuesday with Off Day Monday. The best Reds starters going. All on a full week or more of rest. (Castillo, Gray, Bauer). Need great pitching from these three and get a sweep of the Cubs.

    Sim Reds has faced Quintana twice this season

    May30 – 3-2 loss – Quintana lasted 4&2/3,4 hits,2 runs, 2BB
    lineup vs Quintana
    Lorenzen 0-2
    Ervin 0-2
    Casteallanos 0-2
    Suarez 0-2
    Glavis 0-2
    Farmer 1-1 + BB
    Casali 0-2
    Senzel 0-1
    Miley 0-1

    June4 – 7-4 loss – Quintana lasted 5 innings.4hits,3runs,2BB
    Lorenzen 1-3, HR
    Akiyama 0-2
    Ervin 1-2
    Suarez 0-1 + BB
    Mouse 0-1 + BB
    Casali 0-1 + SacFly
    Castallanos 0-2
    Galvis 0-2
    Miley 0-1
    Senzel (PH) 0-1

    Votto was on IL for both games.

    Nobody has really had success against him and the Reds bullpen gave up 4 of the 7 runs in the June 4th game and Miley keep the team in both games.

    Going with a balanced left/right hitting lineup as the heavy righties only has not worked put in the 1st two games vs Quintana.

    Thought about Lorenzen or Castellanos in the outfield and going with Castellanos.
    Castellanos has two hits in each of his last 3 games where he has 3 or more ABs.
    Before game 3 vs Cards (DNP)
    2-3
    2-4
    2-5
    1-1
    0-1
    He is 7-14 in his last 5 games. Hopefully he can stay on the hot streak.

    Starting Barnhardt as the better defense is needed with Castillo pitchign, cannot afford and passed balls so giving up some potential offense at catcher.

    So here is my lineup.

    Akiyama CF
    Ervin LF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Moose 2B
    Castellanos RF
    Galvis SS
    Barnhardt C
    Castillo P

    Need to sweep the Cubs at Wrigley Field to close the gap in the division.

    • Don

      realized I messed up the May 30th game and when Quintana came out. I took him out after there were two outs, not after the runs scored he gave up.
      Here is the updated May stats
      Quintana lasted 4&2/3,4 hits,2 runs, 2BB

      Lorenzen 1-3
      Ervin 0-2 +BB
      Casteallanos 0-2
      Suarez 0-2
      Glavis 0-2
      Farmer 1-1 + BB
      Casali 0-2
      Senzel 1-2
      Miley 1-2

      Maybe put in Lorenzen for Ervin as an alternate lineup? Cannot take Akiyama out of the lineup and Castellanos is hitting great recently in the last 5 games.

      • Melvin

        As per my comments below I agree with your thoughts Lorenzen for Ervin. Maybe that means you might want to shuffle the order some I don’t know.

      • Don

        Melvin, you are correct. Ervin is cooling off in June and Lorenzen is 2-6 vs Quintana.
        Leaving him in the #2 spot since I like the left/right alternate as it makes it harder on relievers in the 6th innings and later.

        So this is my amended lineup for Tuesday’s game.

        Akiyama LF
        Lorenzen CF
        Votto 1B
        Suarez 3B
        Moose 2B
        Castellanos RF
        Galvis SS
        Barnhardt C
        Castillo P

      • Melvin

        I officially vote for this one.

        Sounds good. Redsfan4life always has good lineups too as this time but I’m gonna go with this one as the one more likely to win. One other thought that you’ve probably already considered is LF is usually the spot where the weakest defender is put. Catellanos in LF and Akiyma in RF might be a possibility but your call of course.

      • Don

        Melvin,

        If the Game was at Wrigley (as you correctly started that the game is at GAPB) then Castellanos in left would make sense.

        Reason I put Casellanos in RF is that LF is the much harder defensive field to play at GAPB in the 1st about 5 innings in June as it is the sun in the eye’s field and to me this means the stronger defender should be in LF. If it was April or September this would not hold true.

      • Melvin

        Don,

        That is really thinking things through. Good point about the sun. I like your reasoning and the way you think. I still like Lorenzen in your lineup. Have to go with your gut feeling. He will be facing a lefty anyway. I personally don’t buy in to us figuring out Strato. We can to some degree but as I’ve said before with their complicated algorithms and information they use I don’t believe they want us to understand them completely. They certainly don’t tell us everything by their own admission. They are not always consistent in the ways we think they should be and we’re often scratching our heads. Stats are great and should always be considered but we can’t live an die by them. Unless a player is doing nothing, stats are constantly changing. Bottom line is winning and if there were a perfect formula for that we would use it of course. We would just let a computer do everything for us….and that wouldn’t be any fun would it? 🙂 We need to win period. That’s all that really matters.

      • Mark Moore

        Still with Don’s adjusted lineup.

    • Melvin

      One good thing I’m sure you don’t mind me correcting (you rarely make mistakes). The schedule says we’er playing at GABP instead of Wrigley. 🙂

    • BK

      One suggestion … I think Casali should start over Barnhart. Let me try to put the two pass balls you mentioned in context:

      – Both Barnhart and Casali are superior defensively. Barnhart hold the edge over his career, largely due to his Gold Glove performance in 2017. Otherwise, they are pretty close in the defensive metrics.
      – As for pass ball rates, they are nearly identical with Barnhart slightly better. Last year, Casali’s PB rate per 1,000 innings behind the plate was 0.64%; Barnhart’s was 0.60%. 1,000 innings a full-time catcher’s workload over a 162-game season (Barnhart has come close, but never eclipsed the 1,000 inning mark). That means in any one season they should both allow the exact same # of PBs. If they both played 10 seasons as full-time starters, Casali would allow only 4 more PBs.

      In summary, the difference is nearly indiscernible. Play the better bat. Defense is weak statistical discriminator between Casali and Barnhart. There’s no question, Casali offers the stronger bat against a LHP.

      Take us on another win streak!

  2. Redsfan4life

    I will take another stab at the lineup.
    Akiyama Rf
    Ervin lf
    Suarez 3b
    Lorenzen cf
    Castellanos 1b
    Galvis ss
    Casali c
    Castillo p
    Senzel 2b

  3. Melvin

    Not an easy loss today but in reality it wasn’t a terrible one. We had good pitching and defense. We’re still hot. I like our chances any time with our offense if we hold our opponent to 3 runs. Most of the time in a game like that we WIN. We always have a much better chance than a slugfest where anything can happen. Need to keep winning. Haven’t got a lot of time. Every game is crucial.

  4. Melvin

    I’m offering this lineup as a guide to whoever it might help. I’m not asking you to endorse it although you can if you want. I honestly don’t care who’s lineup we turn in. It’s time to win now every game if possible and we’re all in it together. Our defense has been good the past few games and I don’t want to mess with that especially in our infield. I thought about Casty at 1B but thought Votto would be the better all around choice. I’m willing to take a chance on Castellanos in LF with his hot bat and maybe sacrifice a little defense but hopefully not much. I have a feeling he is ready to bust out when we need him most. However with one so so outfielder I’m not ready to take a chance on two so instead of Ervin I’m going with Lorenzen. After today he only needs six more starts for two way status which will help us a lot. Barnhart catches with defense a priority.

    Akiyaman RF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Moose 2B
    Castellanos LF
    Lorenzen CF
    Barnhart C
    Castillo P
    Galvis SS

    • Gonzo Reds

      I’ll go here. Like Lorenzen lower in lineup. New streak against Cubbies!

    • BK

      I’m going to post this here … did you see the blurb I posted yesterday about the Strato “Throttle ‘Monster’ Cards”? If that is active in our simulation, it would explain why Lorenzen went from hitting like Mike Trout to hitting like a pitcher in two games earlier this month. Something we need to discuss with GM Tom before we try start Lorenzen in bunches again. Last time we did that, he went on an 0-11 streak … like his “Monster” card got “throttled”.

      • Melvin

        Hey BK. Your point is understood and well taken. Just trying to figure out the best all around strategy to win the most of the last 20 games. He (Lorenzen) should be fine tomorrow against a lefty. That would leave 5 games left for his two way status. Hopefully at least one of those would be against another lefty. If we could live with whatever he does and his awesome defense until then it would really help with our pitching the last 14 games down the stretch. What’s your thoughts on any other possible moves that have been mentioned? Need your help too.

      • BK

        Copy Melvin. All I’m recommending is that we avoid playing him multiple games in a row. Tomorrow would be 3 in a row. Strato makes every effort to encourage (reward) us for playing the game realistically. It’s not realistic to think the Reds would actually start Lorenzen 3 games straight in CF, especially when we have 5 healthy, productive OFs. They post their features to help us out. Not sure it’s a good idea to fight the features they built into the game. Of course, they don’t tell us exactly where the triggers are.

        My other thoughts are posted above under your 4 suggestions.

      • Gonzo Reds

        If I had known about the throttle monster cards I would have started Peyton for Lorenzen on Sunday. One run game, might have made a difference.

        I’ll withdraw my vote for a Lorenzen contained lineup and re vote later on Monday.

  5. Melvin

    If the latest rumors are true the season could very well start on July 19. If that’s true by my count we have 20 games to make up 4 1/2 games. Every game is crucial. There are a few things we need to think about:

    1) Do we want to tell Strato that we want to make Miley available for the bullpen, go with a 4 man rotation, and use a BP day when we need to?
    2) Who do we want to send down when Bauer comes back? I assume most likely Jones.
    3) Do we want Dietrich down the stretch or someone else? if someone else what kind of player do we want? Someone who will possibly give us more offense such as Aquino or Jankowski or some someone who will give us more infield range on defense who could come in as a late game replacement or pinch runner such as Garcia or Rodgriguez?
    4) Is Bowman more valuable than say Kuhnel or someone else? Losing someone at this point is not a high priority to worry about. Winning now is.

    No time to waste gentlemen. 🙂 It’s fun though.

    • Don

      So if July 19 is the end of this SIM. it has been fun and I welcome real baseball back.
      Monday is the last off day for 15, another stretch of 15 games in 15 days, so there is not an opportunity to get extra starts for the others for 15 days.
      So I think we have to stay with the 5 man rotation for the next 15 games as using 3 bullpen days would really stress them even with the extra are of Miley.
      This would be my plan looking at the schedule for pitching,
      6-23to25 Cubs (Castillo, Gray, Bauer)
      6-26to28 Nats (Disco,Miley, Castillo)
      6-29to7-2 @Dodgers (Gray,Bauer,Disco,Miley)
      7-3to7-5@D-Backs(Castillo,Gray,Bauer)
      7-6 (Off Day) – Move Miley to BP here)
      7-7,7-8 Indians (Disco,Castillo)
      7-9 Off Day
      7-10to12 Pirates (Gray,Bauer,Disco)
      7-13 to16 off days (all-star break)
      7-17 to 19 Cubs (Castillo,Gray,Bauer)

      • Melvin

        Sounds fine to me if that’s what’s best with the majority approval of course. My count is 13 games but not much difference either way.

      • Melvin

        I know that’s only two starts for Miley during that time but that still might be too much. I don’t know. If we did have him in the pen right away that would be less stress as a whole possibly and also, depending on the starts he has, Lorenzen could become a two way during that time giving us another arm too.

      • Melvin

        If we agree that it’s a good idea, we could start Lorenzen the next six games which at the very least would give us great defense, and then we would have 14 pitchers for the last 14 games.

      • Don

        You are correct, 13 games in 13 days. Can’t count today for some reason.

        My guess is that if there is baseball on the 19th, I could see Strat-O-Matic ending the sim at the schedules all star break.

        These are great ideas Melvin. Tom can ask about the 4 man + BP day for a while

        If a Reds can get a sweep we are in it, if things go bad vs Cubs then it is playing out the string as 6 to 7 back with 15 to 18 to play would be to much to make up with to many teams to pass.

      • Melvin

        Tom, do you think that’s okay and Strato would go for it?

      • Melvin

        You’re right Don. Gotta beat those Cubs realistically. Can’t let them push us farther down.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Melvin, I think the only rule that Strat-O-Matic would enforce regarding starting rotations is that starters cannot start with fewer than four days of rest. If three people in the group vote for that, we will make that change.

      • Melvin

        Thanks Tom. So starters have to have four days rest and relievers starting on a BP day cannot have pitched the two previous games consecutively. Got it. Maybe I’ll put it out to a vote tomorrow since it’s late. Miley pitched five innings today so he wouldn’t be available for relief tomorrow anyway. Good to have you back. 🙂

    • BK

      1. I’m not a fan of the bullpen day … our openers have struggled. I’m not seeing an advantage from that tactic.

      2. We shouldn’t set a target end date until there is a season actually scheduled. We should play like we’re going to the end of the season with our decisions in my opinion. From where I sit there are some big obstacles to overcome for the season to resume. That said, I am hopeful and get what you are trying to do. But if we end up taking this through September, we’ll want to have our best players available. I would lean towards Kuhnel (has options) or Lorenzen (pitching performance–hard to say, he’s my favorite player) going down for Bauer.

      3. I’ve been thinking a lot about Dietrich. He gives us the best bat for our last position player slot on the 26-man roster. That said, his bat is below average. I don’t think it’s a good idea to swap him out for Garcia or Rodriguez. Other than a strong start to ST, Garcia has given no indication he is ready for the majors. I have serious concern that he could hurt us with both the bat and glove at this point. I don’t see any advantage to him at all. If we just want a SS, we have Farmer. Rodriguez would help with his glove, but I doubt his defense would move the needle enough to compensate for his bat. Both Rodriguez and Garcia are RH, which really doesn’t fill a need either. Jankowski is a plus defender. He’s also LH. He’s a week hitter, but his splits are decent against RHP. We would sacrifice some power, but could gain late-inning plus defense. This could help given that Castellanos is among the worst OF defenders in baseball and Winker is just average in LF (minus in the other spots). In short, we almost always start a weak OF. The downside, is we are giving up some versatility. Dietrich is solid at 2B and capable at a # of spots around the field. I could go either way on this one–the advantage is small and easily debatable.

      4. Kuhnel has been excellent. Nothing wrong with having a solid arm at AAA. I wouldn’t swap them hoping for an advantage.

  6. Jon Davis

    Sorry for my tardiness.

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, *+Dietrich
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen(14), *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker, Senzel
    SP – *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo
    RP – *+Reed, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, *Jones, Kuhnel
    DL – *Bauer (Can return 6/24)

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Stephenson(Can Return 6/28), Farmer
    IF – Garcia(Can Return 6/23), +Vanmeter, Blandino
    OF – Aquino, +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Mahle(Can Return 6/24), Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Hendrix, Shafer, +Smith, Bowman(Can Return 6/23)

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon, Rodriguez, Trahan
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

      • Jon Davis

        Thanks for that it has been a long, tiring and infuriating weekend, so nice to hear.

    • Melvin

      Sorry you’ve had a rough weekend. Hope things get better soon. Thanks again for all you do.

      • Jon Davis

        Thanks yeah it’s over now so that’s good. You are very welcome

  7. Jon Davis

    A big welcome back to Tom and a big thank you to you Doug for keeping the train on the tracks while Tom was away.

  8. Jon Davis

    Ok jumping back in as far as the lineup goes my first thought was whether we can convince Barnhart to bat right handed for 1 game. Casali has played both sim games vs Quintana and went 1 for 7 and in reality is 3 for 17 while Barnhart is 3 for 6. I am sure the answer is no so I will go with Casali. My preliminary list for the remaining 7 spots are Votto, Suarez, Moustakas, Senzel, Lorenzen, Akiyama, Ervin, Castellanos and Galvis, so 2 of them have to sit. I have been sitting here thinking for quite a while and can’t think of a great reason for anyone in particular to sit so with my tummy I will go and this is my suggested lineup.

    1. Akiyama – CF
    2. Ervin – LF
    3. Suarez – 3B
    4. Castellanos – 1B
    5. Lorenzen – RF
    6. Senzel – 2B
    7. Casali – C
    8. Castillo – P
    9. Galvis – SS

  9. BK

    Suggested lineup vs. Quintana. We’ve had some tough luck against Quintana, but I think we need to stick with the strategy of attacking his nearly 200-point split advantage against LH batters by sending RH hitters against him.

    RF – Akiyama
    LF – Ervin
    3B – Suarez
    1B – Castellanos (we give up a little defense w/this move, but Castellanos hitting more than makes up for the defensive sacrifice)
    2B – Moustakas (actually hit LHP better than RHP last year)
    C – Casali (I don’t buy into the weak defense talk — the stats show him excellent)
    CF – Senzel (he did most of his damage against LHP last year and his BABIP #s indicate he’s hit into a lot of bad luck thus far)
    P – Castillo
    SS – Galvis

    I’m sitting Lorenzen due to Strato’s “Throttle ‘Monster’ Card” feature. Looking at the stats, last time we started Lorenzen this often he fell of the cliff as a hitter.

    • Don

      BK, understand the reasoning.

      Here is my reasoning for my lineup

      Going into June, Ervin’s avg was 353
      Ervin has gone 12-52, avg=231 since June 1 which means your previous analysis of him trending to his normal careers is most likely valid and he must be limited use (lefties only). This could be a good game from him but Lorenzen has been equal or better vs Lefties in this SIM and Lorenzen is 2-6 (HR) and Ervin is 0-4 in the two games vs Quintana.

      Lorenzen is 4-30(.133) in games when a right handed pitcher starts and 11-27 (407) when a left handed pitcher starts. So Lorenzen should only start vs lefties (just like Ervin) and Lorenzen is a much better defender which Castillo needs.

      Castellanos entered June with a 256 avg
      He has gone 9-28 (321) to raise his average to 276. He has been hitting well in June when given the starts. Pinch Hitting he has been poor (something like 1-10)

      Mouse entered June with a 232 avg
      He has gone 13-43 (302) on June to raise his average to 260.

      Reason to start Votto vs Quintana as he was IL vs Cubs so no SIM stats.
      In real baseball (5-9 in 2019,5-9 in 2018,2-5 in 2017) 12-23 (521) career average and Castillo must have avg infield defense as he has given up a lot of singles and Votto is the best 1B the Reds have. Senzel may be under performing based on BABIP but I do not think that sitting Votto for Senzel with Votto dominating Quintana in real life is the right call with Castillo starting.

      For the catching position, any offense is a bonus and Castillo’s ERA is cut in 1/2 with Barnhardt vs Casili catching. Neither is great but looking for every advantage with possible with Castillo pitching.

      Castillo pitching stats
      With Barhhardt (12 starts) catching
      ERA = 4.87
      H/9In = 7.9
      BB/9In = 4.48
      L/9In = 7.38
      HR/9In = 1.05

      With Casali (4 starts) catching
      ERA = 9.33
      H/9In = 14.4
      BB/9In = 3.26
      L/9In = 8.86
      HR/9In = 1.86

      • Don

        L/9 above should be K/9innings, made same type twice and did not catch either time.

      • BK

        Don,
        Anytime we’re looking at small sample sizes (4 starts is definitely a small sample size) it’s good to dig a little deeper. Last year, by catcher, Castillo’s ERA was:

        – Casali (13 starts): 3.10 ERA
        – Barnhart (18 starts): 3.66 ERA

        In short, I can’t buy that Casali is the cause of Castillo’s problems. Casali and Barnhart are both superior defensively. Barnhart is better, but only over a very, very large sample size is the difference discernable. As hitters, against LHP, the data is quite clear–Casali is better, much better.

        I agree you with Ervin over Lorenzen.

        I think starting Senzel (moves Castellanos to 1B) is a more debatable move. We give up 1.5% in BABIP with Castellanos at 1B (we have good sample sizes now and the difference is discernable). Based on Votto’s stats against Quintana, I could easily see DB starting Votto, tomorrow. There’s solid evidence for both approaches. I’m good with Votto for the reasons you stated or Senzel for the reasons I stated.

        As I stated above, I suggest Casali over Barnhart. My proposed lineup doesn’t have any votes, so it will be up to you to decide.

      • BK

        Whoops, Just saw you swapped out Ervin for Lorenzen. As they said in Top Gun, “Gutsy Move” sitting our second best hitter. Ervin has tailed off this month because we’ve started him nearly every game. He crushes LHP … it’s what he does!

    • Gonzo Reds

      I agree with BK no Lorenzen at least Tuesday. He has my vote.

    • Melvin

      I agree Ervin does generally “crush” LH pitching. However Lorenzen is not too shabby either. When it comes to defense there really is no comparison. Lorenzen wins easily. Bottom line: if Ervin doesn’t hit he doesn’t provide much value. Lorenzen is always valuable and an all around player. The defense and value Lorenzen provides doesn’t show up in the stat sheet necessarily.

      • BK

        Who has the best career OPS on the Reds roster vs. LHP?
        #1 Ervin (.907)
        #2 Suarez (.901)
        #3 Castellanos (.891)

        Moreover, Ervin had an OPS vs. LHP last year of 1.038. So, it’s really not surprising he’s done so well against what has been predominate LHP thus far in our sim season.

        Lorenzen is an amazing player all-around player and exceptional defensively–he’s my favorite Red. That said, I think we’ve all been surprised at how well he’s done. Ervin was above average defensively in both LF and CF last year–much improved over his first couple of years in the majors where he looked overmatched. I’ll add, his defensive rep as a minor leaguer was solid, so I’m not surprised he improved.

      • Melvin

        Well buddy, nothing personal against you of course. However if the stats say Ervin is a good defender and even close to Lorenzen then the stats are wrong in my book. I’ve seen both play several times and there really is no comparison. This is an example of the stats being fallible.

      • BK

        No offense taken. Time to rally behind Don and get a long win streak going. Have a great evening!

  10. Melvin

    Okay guys. I still personally strongly believe that we have to play every game like our season will be ending in the next few weeks and go all out whatever going all out is in our minds essentially going for the division. Pulling all our thoughts and suggestions together and just going for it and leaving nothing left on the table. If we don’t play it that way and end up several games back on July 19 or whenever we will be kicking ourselves as to why we didn’t. If somehow our sim season is continued longer hopefully we will at least be in a better position in the standings and can adjust our strategy from there. There has been some discussion on the idea of going with a four man rotation the rest of the way, therefore telling Strato that we will want to now make Miley available to pitch out of the bullpen, and when needed the manager picks the starter for a BP day (which most of us likes to have control over). According to Don’s schedule that he posted in this thread that will only happen twice in the next several weeks. We would then have an extra arm, lefty at that, to help our pen down the stretch. I am going to officially open the voting up for that right now as I told Tom I would last night. In order to help him out as much as possible and make counting votes easy on him please only reply to this with a yes or no or something very similar and then post any comments or suggestions at the bottom. Thanks guys.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      For the sake of discussion: There are many off-days in July, thanks in part to the All-Star game being on the schedule. My preliminary look at the schedule indicates there will be a need for a fifth starter (in this case, a bullpen day) four times until the end of July.

    • BK

      No, but thank you for the thought that went into this–I’ve enjoyed the dialogue.

      We’ve executed two bullpen days in the last week giving up a combined 7 runs in 3 innings from our openers for an ERA of 21.00. I’m not seeing the value in this tradeoff. But we won both games you say. Sorry, falling behind early doesn’t usually pay off. We are much better off starting Miley when we need a fifth starter–for a fifth starter, he’s pretty reliable. We can adjust our rotation to minimize his starts and use him in the bullpen when it doesn’t interfere with his starts.

  11. Melvin

    BK,

    I think we’er pretty close to talking about the same thing then in different words. Tom will however have to tell Strato each time or at least several times when to use him and how. However, if we designate him as a reliever, as I understand it, Strato will use him that way and if we wanted to we could tell Strato to hold him back for a BP day. I’m not saying we couldn’t use him as a fifth starter. He would just have the “reliever” label attached to him and be more valuable because of the flexibility.

  12. Tom Mitsoff

    Gentlemen, at 10 p.m. Eastern time, I count two endorsements for Don, one for BK and Melvin had one which was retracted. I’m sending Don’s lineup to Strat-O-Matic for Tuesday.

    I’m also going to ask what they intend to do with the sim when the real season starts.

    • Don

      fingers crossed that Castillo pitches well on 7 days rest.

  13. Melvin

    Okay then Don! Time to take it to those Cubs. They’ve hurt us too many times and it’s time to turn it around. 🙂 Let’s keep pushing hard for first place!