Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Dodgers 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 9 1
Reds 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 1

A costly error by Eugenio Suarez led to two unearned runs scoring for the Los Angeles Dodgers (45-23), which were the difference in a 7-5 win over the Cincinnati Reds (33-36) at Great American Ball Park.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


The sim teams traded three-run homers in the early going. Cody Bellinger blasted one against starter and loser Luis Castillo in the top of the first inning. In the bottom of the second, Mike Moustakas — who is hotter than the surface of the sun — sent one soaring into the GABP seats off Dodger rookie right-hander Tony Gonsolin, his 15th of the sim season.

LA came right back in the top of the third. Joc Pederson led off against Castillo with a solo shot. After Castillo retired the next two batters, Bellinger and Justin Turner singled. Corey Seager then hit a grounder which Suarez committed an error on (his team-leading 13th), loading the bases on what should have been the third out. Two more Dodger runs then scored on a bases-loaded walk and a single by Will Smith. In the end, those two unearned runs were key in LA’s two-run margin of victory.

The sim Reds scored single runs in the third and fourth on a Jesse Winker solo shot and a Shogo Akiyama RBI single, respectively. But the Dodger pitching almost completely shut them down thereafter.

Akiyama’s hit extended his hitting streak to 18 games, best on the sim Reds this season. Winker and Tucker Barnhart were the only Reds starters with more than one hit.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

A-Pinch Hit For Gonsolin In 6th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Treinen In 9th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Beaty In 9th Inning
E-Pinch Hit For Pederson In 9th Inning

B-Pinch Hit For Castillo In 7th Inning
F-Subbed Defensively (1B) For Reed In 9th Inning

Standings following the June 11 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cardinals 39 30 .565 0.0
Cubs 37 33 .529 2.5
Brewers 35 33 .507 3.5
Reds 33 36 .478 6.0
Pirates 29 39 .426 9.5

The 2020 schedule as currently constituted has the Reds traveling to Milwaukee Friday for the first game of a three-game series at Miller Park. Sonny Gray will pitch for the Reds, and right-hander Trey Supak will pitch for Milwaukee.

News/Notes from around baseball

One of the things we would have during the season in the game threads was a section comprised of news and notes for the day. While there’s a lot less going on these days in the baseball world than usual for this time of year, there still are some things that are worth highlighting. When there are, we’ll be adding them to these daily simulation threads.

More on Reds Draft Pick Austin Hendrick

While there was a post here at Redleg Nation this morning about Austin Hendrick, over at RedsMinorLeagues.com there’s a little more on the Reds 1st round pick from last night, including some more video as well as quotes from Director of Amateur Scouting Brad Meador on what the team saw in Hendrick that made him their guy.

Cincinnati Reds 1st round draft pick: Austin Hendrick

Players take big steps towards a compromise

Craig Edwards says that the players took a big step on Wednesday with their latest proposal to Major League Baseball.

The players made a significant move towards compromise with their offer yesterday. It’s now up to the owners to make an offer that reflects that compromise rather than just making the same offer with the numbers rearranged that still results in a billion dollar pay cut for the players. There might cause some difficulty within the ownership ranks given the financial disparity between teams, but it is clear owners aren’t going to be able to make a deal that makes all the owners happy. The supposed 54-game backstop for the owners is significantly better than any offer they’ve made thus far, and the next step forward needs to reflect that reality.

How are the simReds performing?

The Hitters

The Pitchers

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Jon Davis 6 2 .750
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
BK 9 5 .643
James Owens 3 2 .600
Redsfan4life 3 3 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Gonzo Reds 3 4 .429
Melvin 1 4 .200
Don 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

24 Responses

  1. Jon Davis

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – T. Stephenson, *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, *+Dietrich, Garcia
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen, *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker
    IL – *+Votto (Ready to return on 6/13)
    SP – *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo
    RP – *+Reed, Bowman, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, *Jones
    DL – *+Votto (Ready to return on 6/13), *Bauer (Ready to return on 6/24)

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Farmer
    IF – +Vanmeter, Blandino
    OF – Senzel, Aquino, +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Hendrix, Kuhnel, Shafer, +Smith

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon, Rodriguez, Trahan
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

  2. Melvin

    Akiyama RF
    Ervin LF
    Moustakas 3B
    Winker 1B
    Lorenzen CF
    Stehpehsnon C
    Galvis SS
    Gray P
    Garcia 2B

  3. Redsfan4life

    Akiyama cf
    Winker 1b
    Suarez 3b
    Moustakis 2b
    Ervin lf
    Galvis ss
    Stephenson c
    Gray p
    Payton rf

    • Gonzo Reds

      Can’t win with the broken Castillo strat-o-matic card. It is what it is…

      Voting for this one as it doesn’t have Lorenzen in it. He’s clearly cooled off and would be righty against righty so why put him in the lineup? Rather see the lefty Peyton.

      • Don

        I do not think it is all Castillo’s card.
        His previous 8 starts (before today) his BABIP was 357 (49/137) today his BABIP was 304 today (7/23).
        In these 8 games he averaged giving up 3 singles, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 4 BB
        Today there were 5 singles, 0 doubles, 2 HR, 3 BB

        The walk and single after the Suarez error is what did the team in today.

        His career BABIP is 264.

        We cannot know if they are solid hits or seeing eye hits. Based on what Tom wrote as the feedback from Strat-o, the implication was that the Reds are giving up a lot of seeing eye hits (lack of defensive range).

        The team is giving up to many singles which means that the infield defense is not good enough (limit range).

        This is what the team has given up to get more offense and the results show that these Sim Reds are not out scoring their lack of defensive support for the pitching staff.

      • Don

        He pitched really good for the last 3 innings, no hits (1 walk) after the error inning.
        In the 7th he stuck out the side in order, Betts, Muncy,Bellinger the 4th time through the lineup.

      • Melvin

        Yep. It’s becoming increasingly more clear that we need better balance between offense and defense…only if we want to win consistently of course.

      • BK

        Interesting point Don … so, it would seem we should go with Votto when he returns from the IL and see if that helps. Suarez, Moose and Galvis are fixtures at the other infield spots. Galvis has plus range/glove at SS, Moose is average at 2B, but certainly not below average. Suarez is having a tough year defensively, but his offense (as I’ve shown below) makes up for his defense. Errors are one of the poorest indicators of defense as poor fielders don’t get nearly as many chances as good fielders. It will be interesting to see if Votto prevents hits. His bat really doesn’t warrant the playing time, but as with Votto, it’s the net result we need to chase.

      • Melvin

        I agree with the point about errors to a certain degree. If a fielder, especially and infielder has good range and at least stops the ball that’s better than nothing but if it gets to the point that when he gets to the ball he then throws it away that can potentially do a lot more harm than good and he’d be better off not getting to it.

      • Gonzo Reds

        You cant explain away a 6 ERA when it should be closer to 3 simply by bad defense. And some of that bad defense would lead to unearned runs but it’s still above 6. His card is flawed.

        Cards are constructed on what the people at Strat-o-matic think he’s going to do in real life this year. They clearly are all Cardinals fans… 😉

      • BK

        @Don, I calculated a BABIP yesterday of .250. I used the formula listed in Fangraph’s glossary.

        “Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

        Yesterday’s game: (9H-2HR)/(36AB-6K-2HR+0SF) = 7/28 = ,250 BABIP

    • BK

      This one has my vote. These are the right players although our odds would be better swapping Galvis (.318 OBP) and Payton (.355 OBP and an 80 point edge in OPS) . Also, Ervin and his 400+ OBP would fit nicely behind Akiyama. Of MLB hitters with more than 100 PAs, Ervin is 5th in OBP–that is elite!

  4. Jon Davis

    Here’s my lineup

    1. Akiyama – RF
    2. Winker – 1B
    3. Ervin – LF
    4. Moustakas – 3B
    5. Lorenzen – CF
    6. Dietrich – 2B
    7. Stephenson – C
    8. Gray – P
    9. Galvis – SS

  5. Melvin

    Our defense didn’t help us today. Castillo didn’t pitch great but better than he has been. Two unearned runs. Suarez another error (13). I’m starting to feel like I don’t know what to do with him. I’m going to give him tomorrow off should I be fortunate enough to have my lineup endorsed. I’m gonna move Moose over to 3B (he has played there). I’m gonna give our defense a boost another way too in letting Garcia have his first start at 2B. I’m gonna let Winker play 1B the last day before Votto returns. Lorenzen in CF but down in the order though. Cooled off but still with power and if we play him tomorrow the manger for the next game will have him for a spot start on Saturday should he choose. Moustakas seems like he’s hitting a HR every game. Two good hitters in front of him .376/.426 & .340/.418. Galvis is in the bottom three for those who keep track as he seems to hit better there. Have to play Stephenson as we need to decide about our three catcher situation. I did the BK and others idea of batting the pitcher 8th. Hopefully this lineup will give us, at least for a game, better balance between offense and defense. BTW Dietrich another empty pinch hit AB. IMO he needs to go when Votto comes back.

  6. Redsfan4life

    Tom if we have a 8th inn. Lead will strat put a better glove guy in for us?
    I am thinking Garcia to 2b or ss and Moose to 3b and Suarez out of the game. If so Garcia would have value and should be kept when Votto returns.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      I’ve seen that happen, but I can’t say it is automatic. They have a very complex algorithm. For example, in today’s game, they moved Winker from first base to right field and put Dietrich at first base, with Ervin leaving the game in the top of the ninth. Reds weren’t ahead, but I guess it made some sense in terms of a double switch and getting the pitcher’s spot out of the group scheduled to bat in the bottom of the ninth.

  7. Don

    This game is an “opener” game for brewers so going with a LHB, RHB alternating so that the lineup is balanced as the opener will most likely go less than 3. With a plan for multiple Brewers pitchers will be used, I am not seeing a need to stack one way of the other for an opener and as a result should make it harder for bullpen match-ups.

    Starting Castellanos at 1B as I needed another right hander in the lineup for the alternating lineup and hoping he gets out of slump.
    Thought of Winker at 1st with Lorenzen in CF but Lorenzen is 3-25 in June after starting on offense in 6 of 10 and pitching in 3 of the 4 he did not start.

    Using Stephenson at catcher as the sooner we know if he is a SIM keeper the better

    Akiyama – CF
    Ervin – RF
    Winker- LF
    Suarez – 3B
    Mouse – 2B
    Castellanos – 1B
    Galvis – SS
    Stephenson – C
    Gray – P

    If this lineup is picked, please ask Strat-o-Matic to use Sims last out of the bullpen for this game as he is the potentional opener for the 13th.

    We should have De Leon in Milwaukee as if there is another extra inning game which uses the entire bullpen or most of it in the game oand that the Reds win (so I can manage again) that is whom will be starting on the 13th (Bowman is sent down for the roster spot).

  8. BK

    Suarez made another error, today. So how bad is his defense hurting his net value to the Reds? Offensively, he approximating his 2017 season. His OPS is better this year, but his ~OPS+ (I say approximate because I can’t calculate a park factor easily) is about 115 (exact same as 2015). OPS+ is useful because it accounts for our 2020 sim season having more offensive production than 2017. So, the bar is higher for everyone. In 2017, Suarez produced an offensive bWAR of 3.2.

    Defensively, we need to first acknowledge that we induced one of Suarez errors by playing him at SS on 4/29. So, he has 12 at 3B through 69 games. While acknowledging more goes into defensive bWAR than errors, it’s really the best insight we can get given the info Strato makes available to us. I looked at Suarez in :

    – 2015 season where he made 19 errors in 95 starts at SS. Over 95 games, 2020 sim Suarez projects to 16.5 errors. Over a full season, he would have netted a defensive bWAR of -1.3. At Suarez current error rate, this translates to about -1 bWAR.

    – 2016 season where he made 23 errors in 149 starts at 3B. Over 149 games , 2020 sim Suarez projects to 25 errors. In 2016, Suarez earned a 0.4 bWAR for his defense. Adjusted to his 2020 sim error rate it would be 0.3 bWAR. Yes, a positive overall defensive number.

    – 2019 season. Suarez made 151 starts with 17 errors. Important, because 2019 probably gives us the best insight to the range Strato is giving him. Last year he earned a -0.3 bWAR for defense. His projected 25 errors would translate to something closer to his 2015 season at the worst, about -1 bWAR.

    In summary, in the net Suarez is worth somewhere between 2.2 and 2.5 bWAR over a full season right now. He was just a shade below average defensively last year–his worst year at 3B. He is too young for age to reasonably be expected to hurt his defense. So over time, we should expect improvement. But even if we don’t, he’s a solid contributor on our team. There’s no where else to play him w/out further hurting his defensive contribution. Offensively, he is well above average (top 13% in OPS) and the third best hitter on our team behind Akiyama and Ervin.

    Bottom-line: play him and don’t give it a second thought.

  9. Tom Mitsoff

    Redsfan4life has two endorsements, so his lineup will be sent to Strat-O-Matic for Friday!

  10. Tom Mitsoff

    Just FYI, I’m going to be on vacation beginning Saturday morning. Doug Gray will assume the GM duties while I’m away. So I’ll get the Saturday info sent to Strat-O-Matic Friday evening, and then for the next week, Doug will take care of that.

    • Doug Gray

      *Doug will do his best to take care of it….* Lol