Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Dodgers 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 0
Reds 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 X 4 8 1

Shutdown pitching over the final eight innings against the team with the best record in the National League led the Cincinnati Reds (33-34) to a 4-2 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers (43-23) at Great American Ball Park.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


Sim Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani allowed three hits and two runs (on Justin Turner’s two-RBI double) in the top of the first inning. But after that, he and three relievers completely locked down the powerful Dodger attack on only two hits and two walks over the final eight innings.

In the bottom of the fifth, Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson, making his sim Major League debut, led off with a single (his first sim Major League hit) and was advanced to second on a bunt by DeSclafani. Steady Freddy Galvis then put one over the wall against Dodger starter Walker Buehler to tie the score at 2-2. One inning later, Jesse Winker reached Buehler for a leadoff single, and Mike Moustakas — on a recent power surge — launched longball number 13 to put his team ahead for good.

After DeSclafani completed six innings, Pedro Strop, Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias held LA to only a seventh-inning single by A.J. Pollock and a ninth-inning walk to Turner the rest of the way.

Phillip Ervin was the only sim Reds batter with multiple hits, two. Shogo Akiyama’s third-inning double extended his hitting streak to 16 games.

The win was the sim Reds’ second straight after a four-game losing streak. Redleg Nation winning commenter/manager BK improved his record to 9-4.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

B-Pinch Hit For Buehler In 7th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Pederson In 7th Inning
E-Pinch Hit For Barnes In 9th Inning

A-Pinch Hit For Desclafani In 6th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Winker In 8th Inning

Standings following the June 9 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cardinals 39 29 .574 0.0
Cubs 37 32 .536 2.5
Brewers 34 32 .515 4.0
Reds 33 34 .493 5.5
Pirates 28 38 .424 10.0

The 2020 schedule as currently constituted has the Reds playing game two of the three game series at Great American Ball Park Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Wade Miley will pitch for the Reds, and lefthander David Price will pitch for Los Angeles.

How are the simReds performing?

The Hitters

The Pitchers

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

BK has priority for Wednesday’s lineup vs. the Dodgers since he was a winner today. Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Jon Davis 6 2 .750
BK 9 4 .692
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
James Owens 3 2 .600
Gonzo Reds 3 3 .500
Redsfan4life 3 3 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Melvin 1 4 .200
Don 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

87 Responses

  1. Tom Mitsoff

    Guys, I got this email early Tuesday morning from Strat-O-Matic:

    ——-

    They can’t send down a hitter for a pitcher. New MLB rule is max 13 pitchers. Lorenzen still counts as a pitcher until he has 20 games with 3 at bats as a hitter (Basically starts, i believe he has 11)

    ——-

    So the Aquino for Kuhnel move did not go through for today’s game against LA.

  2. Melvin

    Great pitching today. Good win. Tom, are you okay with my roster proposal last night? If so should I post again my explanation paragraph before that? Thanks

    • Melvin

      By the way I forgot to mention our new catcher call up Stephenson with his first hit. That’s a good sign with no passed balls. Good start.

  3. Tom Mitsoff

    With the Bauer injury and the recall of Nate Jones, we’re basically in a position with four starting pitchers. Strat-O-Matic rules say that no starting pitcher can start with less than four days rest. There are two off-days during the period when Bauer is on the DL, so that will help.

    I did some calculations on what it would look like if we try to maximize the starts by Castillo, Gray and DeSclafani during this period until Bauer’s return. To do so, there would be three game dates on which whoever is managing that day would have to make a starting pitching decision among:

    1) starting Miley (which might be a good option against a predominantly lefthanded hitting team)
    2) starting an “opener” (reliever) and having a bullpen day; I checked with Strat, and they said a reliever who has pitched in each of the past two days cannot be an “opener,” FYI
    3) recalling a starting pitcher from the minors and sending out a reliever

    I think that decision will make those days even more fun and challenging for whoever the manager is that day. Those dates are tenatively Saturday, June 13, Thursday, June 18 and Saturday, June 20.

    • Melvin

      Yes. I think we all welcome being able to make pitching decisions. I agree.

  4. BK

    Fellow Red’s sim leadership committee. Go take a look at Melvin’s post towards the bottom of Sunday’s game. I support bringing up Garcia. However, since we were unable to send down Aquino, yesterday; I suggest Garcia is promoted and Aquino sent down (Melvin had initially suggested Dietrich). Why Aquino? He’s too far down the depth chart to help. Admittedly, at first glance, Dietrich is off to a bad start. Looking a little deeper, the sample size is still very small and he’s putting the ball in play. His poor start is most likely bad luck. I think we hold onto Dietrich and decide his fate when Votto comes off the IL.

    • Melvin

      I don’t think it really matters as both have to go when Votto returns unless we’re willing to DFA Casali already.

      • BK

        In addition to the reasons I stated, it also matters for defensive substitutions. We have a pretty wacky bench right now with 6 OFs, 4 IFs and 3 Cs. No team would set their bench up like we have … we’re playing with fire.

    • Gonzo Reds

      Seriously BK what do you have against Aquino? He should be in your lineup tomorrow against the lefty Price! Geez, how many times do I have to repeat this? When Votto comes back and we don’t have to use Winker/Casto platoon at 1B we can look at it again. I am absolutely NOT voting to send Aquino down until then!

      • Melvin

        Hey Gonzo. I noticed that you agreed to vote for Garcia up and Dietrich down in yesterdays thread if I’m not mistaken. Is that still your vote today?

  5. Melvin

    Melvin 06/09/2020
    Okay guys. I’ve been thinking a lot as several of you obviously have too. This is good for us, good for Tom, and good for Doug too so it’s a win for everyone. ? The emphasis the past few days has been on defense. It’s been proven quite clearly by those who have been good enough to do the research for us that our defense hasn’t been what it should be. In the beginning of the season we weren’t scoring enough runs. Little by little we have since done a much better job of figuring out what Strato wants rather than what we think things should be and we’ve done a whole lot better. Now we have information telling us that maybe our pitching is not all to blame but rather we are too and making it hard on our pitching in our lineup placements. You might remember, and probably do, that I’ve been a big proponent of having both Aquino and Dietrich on the roster not as every day players but as strong bench and pinch hitting options. However, as things have progressed, that situation has changed. We now have six pretty good hitting outfielders (Tom found a good one for us in Payton). Akiyama, Payton and Winker hit from the left side while Lorenzen, Ervin, and Castellanos hit from the right side. That’s pretty good balance. In any game two, maybe three if Winker/Castellanos is not at 1B are available for pinch hitting. That in itself makes a pretty good hitting bench. By the way when Votto does return, if we’er really serous about having the proper balance of offense and defense, then Winker and Castellanos should be used mostly only in pinch hitting roles. Quite frankly they are pretty bad in that area and we have enough good hitting outfielders who can play defense too, some really well. We’ve tried playing Dietrich. Although he’s not been terrible he just doesn’t add much to our team in the way of offense or defense. Before we brought him up we didn’t know we had access to our younger stars. Now that we do I’m proposing that we seriously consider bringing up Jose Garcia for Dietrich. It may mean that we could lose Dietrich if another team picks him up. Well since he’s really doing us more harm than good at the moment it’s time we take the chance. It’s been pointed out that one of several ways that he’s a liability is that Strato is using him for pinch hitting instead of one of our good hitting outfielders who aren’t playing that day. Why should we bring up Garcia and not someone else you might ask? Well of course there’s room for debate as there’s never any guarantee about anything we’er doing. LOL However he is one of, if not THE BEST of our young budding possible superstars. As I stated earlier that it’s been said by people who have watched him play that he was clearly the best player on the field. He also has played 2B as well as SS which is very important as we do have a really good defensive SS but not so at 2B. He’s clearly one of the fan favorites especially after his spring training this year. There are a variety of ways he could help us. He could of course play 2B for Moose at times, or he could come in as a late game replacement. He would be the backup SS that some on here have wanted. I checked today on Galvis and he has played 3B before for the Phillies several games in two different years. If we have a game where we feel like Suarez is too much of a defensive liability we could use Galvis at third (giving us much better defense there I’m sure) and use Garcia at SS. Another is with the situation we have now. If we feel that the Winker/Castellanos 1B platoon is not good for us because of that fact they have no major league experience there then we could slide over Moustakas until Votto returns and slot Garcia at 2B. Moose has played there before with at least average defense as some have pointed out. Every spot is important defensively but every baseball person knows that your “up the middle” defense is the most important even with the shifts that are used these days which Strato doesn’t do. Our “up the middle defense” could be Lorenzen CF, Stephenson C, Galvis SS, and Garcia 2B. We would have a veteran team with our young budding stars mixed in with both Stephenson and Garcia. If BK keeps on winning, and he’d BETTER! (just playin) a BK lineup could look like this until Votto returns.

    Akiyama RF
    Lorenzen CF
    Ervin LF
    Suarez 3B
    Moustakas 1B
    Stephenson C
    Galvis SS
    Catillo P
    Garcia 2B

    Let’s face it guys. We really don’t have that much time to lose. Even if we somehow play this whole sim season through we’er almost halfway there. If real baseball starts our sim season may not have long at all. Let’s add a level of excitement to it by seeing what we have. Worst case scenario our young guys aren’t ready yet and we send them down for more seasoning.

  6. Melvin

    After that looong explanation. I’m going to do this since BK has a slight variation. If you agree basically with calling up Garcia:

    Jose Garcia up – Dietrich down

    or

    Jose Garcia up – Aquino down

    • Don

      Yes for Jose Garcia up – Aquino down

      Save Dietrich for being cut when Votto comes of the DL, Strat-o-Matic may allow that to occur, not sure cuting Dietrich to bring up an AA player will pass the League Office.

  7. Tom Mitsoff

    One point to consider, and I don’t know the answer: I have no idea if Garcia played any second base last year. Probably did, but not sure. If not, his defense at second base might be suspect.

    I do like the idea of Moustakas at first base though. He is an infielder by trade, so it makes sense.

    • BK

      Ugh … Moose didn’t play 1B last year (4 games in 2018). Unfortunately, he gets the same defensive card as Winker, Castellanos, etc. It’s something that works well in the real world, but not in sim world.

      • Melvin

        Are we SURE Strato only takes into consideration 2019?

    • Melvin

      From what I have found out so far he played 2B in 2018. Don’t know if that makes a big difference. As you said not sure about 2019. However at the very least we would still have the option to move Galvis to 2B and Garcia at SS.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Very good point. We know Galvis played at 2B.

      • BK

        But moving Galvis (an elite SS) to 2B may weaken the overall defense. We need to make sure we are generating a net gain (including any offense we’re sacrificing) with our moves.

      • Melvin

        Not sure of your point there BK. Any combo of Galvis/Garcia up the middle will improve our defense dramatically. As I understand it Garcia is pretty good too and we know Galvis played an elite 2B last year.

      • RedsEuphoria

        This would not be an ideal move IMO. Why move a .985 fielding percentage player at SS to 2B, putting a .940 career fielder at SS at all minor-league levels?

        Granted, Galvis does have a career .992 at 2B, which is out of this world, but if anything Colon is probably better suited defensively at either position than Garcia. So I think this might be a decent decision with Colon, but not so much with Garcia.

        At the end of the day, we should be thankful though that Galvis is as good of a defender as he is, which makes him a higher-value roster player than we might have thought coming into this sim season.

      • RedsEuphoria

        *putting a .940 career fielder at SS at all minor-league levels at SS in his place?

      • BK

        When you first proposed this, I saw Galvis (very strong defensively, grades out highly in range and defensive runs saved) staying at SS and Garcia playing 2B. Moustakas is not a poor 2B–he’s not elite, but he is by no means a liability.

        If the goal is to improve defense, to play Garcia we have to:

        1. Move our excellent defensive SS to 2B where he is still excellent
        2. Play Garcia at SS where he is average to slightly above average per his scouting reports (MLB, BA, RML)
        3. Moustakas plays 1B — out of position means no net gain

        On the hitting side, Garcia was solid at High A last year, overmatched in the Arizona Fall League, and excellent in 30 ST PAs. He should have just finished his second month of AA. Excellent prospect. Is he ready to provide an upgrade in the starting lineup?

      • Melvin

        I think we’re getting away from my original points. Dietrich, and for that matter Aquino too, are basically doing nothing for us. If anything they’re hurting us because Strato uses them as first option pinch hitters a lot. My original intent was not necessarily to start him every game. That’s up to the current managers of course. He would provide at the very least better defensive options up the middle. One of the biggest things would be to see him and what he can do as a motivational “fun” factor for everyone here since he is a high end prospect. I don’t think Strato would use him as a pinch hitter over our off day outfielders so he wouldn’t hurt us in that regard. We really only have things to gain and nothing to lose since, as I said, Dietrich/Aquino are doing nothing but possibly hurting us. There could be a really simple solution to this whole discussion. If we feel comfortable DFA Casali then that means there is a roster spot for Votto, Garcia AND Colon provided we’re willing to send down Aquino and Dietrich. Moustakas is average at 2B so either one would provide better defense up the middle even if we would play Garcia at SS. I’m not saying that we should bench Moose for good. This would just improve our defensive options in the infield which is needed.

  8. BK

    A couple of observations:

    1. Keeping Castellanos on the bench improves our defense a great deal (and his bat doesn’t warrant regular playing time either). Likewise, playing Lorenzen over Winker in the outfield is another big plus defensively. In short, we’ve made some very positive defensive adjustments already.

    2. We need to watch how Lorenzen hits against RHP … most of his PAs thus far have been vs. LHP.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      I agree on point number two. As I have played along and created my own lineups some days, I never put Lorenzen in against a righty. Not based on any stats — just my recollection of watching him hit last year. He looked pretty bad against righties who could get a breaking pitch over the plate.

      • BK

        Lorenzen’s career #s vs.:

        – RHP: .259 AVG; .300 OBP; .459 SLG; .759 OPS (94 PA)
        – LHP: .191 AVG; .240 OBP; .383 SLG; .623 OPS (51 PA)

        Not what I expected. Every time I get sore that Senzel was a sim-bust, I’m reminded we’ve been handed a sim-gift in our current CF.

      • Don

        Lorenzen OF starting games with 3 ABs
        4-19 – Yankees 2-3 (J. Happ) – L
        5/2 – Nats – 0-3 (J. Ross) – R
        5/16 – Brewers 1-4 (B. Anderson) – L
        5/24 – Padres 2-4 (J. Lucchesi) – L
        5/26 – Pirates 2-5 (D Holland) – L
        5/30 – Cubs 2-4 (J. Quintana) – L
        6/1 – Cubs 1-3 (Y. Darvish) – R
        6/4 – Cubs 1-4 (J. Quintana) – L
        6/6 – Cubs 0-4 (Y. Darvish) – R
        6/7 – Cubs 1-3 (J. Lester) – L
        6/8 – Dodgers 0-4 (W. Buehler) – R

        In games with a righty Starter he is 1-11
        In games which a lefty starts he is 11-27

        After 9 more 3 PAs games he has earned “two-way” status

    • Gonzo Reds

      Against the lefty Price little data overall but Casali a no brainer .500 with 3 HR’s so no Stephenson today in this one, that’s for sure!

      Aqi – CF
      Lorenzen – LF (only use against lefties – he was 0-4 against righty yesterday)
      Casto – 1B (.300 against Price)
      Suarez – 3B
      Aquino – RF (get him in there against a lefty and he can steal a base too)
      Mouse – 2B (heating up)
      Casali – C (hope he continues his HR trend against Price)
      P
      Galvis – SS (taylor made for the 9 hole)

  9. Redsfan4life

    Not sure I would bench Winker just cause of his glove. Ervin is not much better with the glove.
    I would be all for calling up Garcia though and sending out Aquino.
    Votto returning I would DFA Casali.
    Tom, If Lorenzen gets 9 more games with 3 at bats . Can we then send down a hitter and recall a reliever?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      We could certainly ask that question when the time comes.

    • Melvin

      Ervin is not great but he does have two things that Winker doesn’t, speed and at least a decent arm. Winker will catch the ball if he gets to it most of the time. I agree with that. Getting to it and what he does afterward with it are the problems for Winker.

    • BK

      I agree with not benching Winker … his bat belongs in the lineup. I haven’t seen much indication that playing a player out of position at 1B draws a big penalty.

      • Melvin

        The Winker debate is just about how much we value defense over offense. The main point of emphasis lately has been that our defense could be causing us to lose games. Each manager will have to decide for himself of course what he feels comfortable with. There is no easy answer. I’m just saying those who value defense more will have to keep Winker/Castellanos out of the lineup most of the time. I’m not saying I would necessarily do either one. Pros and Cons to both. Game time gut decision.

  10. RedsEuphoria

    I would personally want to call up Colon over Garcia because he has been a much better defender overall if you dig into the stats in fielding percentage for the two.

    However, I am open to Garcia being called up, and will support whichever we bring up as we send Aquino down. I do think we should give serious consideration to Colon though.

    • RedsEuphoria

      I mean, check out this stat line from Colon at AAA Louisville in 2019 (last year).

      136 GP
      10 HR
      70 RBI
      37 2B
      2 3B
      24 SB
      13 CS
      57 BB
      58 SO
      .300 BA
      .372 OBP

      and at 2B his fielding percentage at MLB level in 70 games is 1.000. How can you top that? 45 games were CG. Moving Moustakas to first, having Galvis at SS, Colon at 2B and Suarez at 3B has the potential to be a fantastic defensive infield, if Suarez just plays better. Colon’s minor league fielding percentage at 2B is not much worse: .977, which is almost as good as our best defender, Freddy Galvis, who gets in the mid-.980’s.

      If we do call Garcia up, putting him at 2B seems to be the right decision. That is, because he does have a .971 fielding percentage at all levels at 2B himself, though we might want to note that if we put him at SS he has fielded a .940 fielding percentage in his career at all levels, which is not very good.

      Also, note that Garcia’s OBP last year was worse than Colon’s because Colon had walked much more frequently than Garcia (we might want to note that Garcia has 44 career walks and 195 strikeouts at all levels, which is pretty bad).

      Garcia did do better last year though at A+, where he had an OBP at .343, but Colon’s .372 performance was better, and further his OBP at MLB last year was .625 (2 HBP, and 3 H in 6 AB, which is a small sample, but his card might be pretty good if last year’s performance is weighted heavily).

      • RedsEuphoria

        Finally, I want to say that we should also be aware that Colón did all this in AAA, while Garcia’s highest level so far is A+ (2 leagues below Colon’s), and if his stat line was better than Garcia’s overall last year at AAA, it seems he is the most logical choice here to me.

        And with that, I vote for Christian Colón to be called up and Aquino to be called down.

  11. Melvin

    One thing that has mentioned before that we need to reconsider. If we keep either of Aquino/Dietrich we have to find a way to make sure Strato doesn’t use them as one of the first options for pinch hitting. As stated above Dietrich hasn’t been good at all in the pinch hitting role and neither has Aquino for that matter. Dietrich pinch hit again today and came up empty. Somehow we have to maneuver things so that our outfielders not playing that game get first shot at it.

    • BK

      Perhaps we could ask Strato to set our PH Depth Chart as follows:

      vs. RHP:
      1. Payton
      2. Dietrich
      3. Barnhart

      vs. LHP:
      1. Castellanos
      2. Casali
      3. Payton
      4. whoever we settle on (Aquino, Garcia, Colon)

  12. RedsEuphoria

    Do want to leave one more comment though. Some people might not be familiar with Colón, but he is a previous postseason hero for the KC Royals during their 2015 playoff run, meaning if there is a clutch factor to strat-o-matica cards, his might be good based off that. He broke the tie in extra innings in the final game of the World Series against the Mets.

    He also has a career 1.000 BA in the postseason, if that even matters (granted, only 3 PAs; OPS = 2.000 in those plate appearances).

    • Don

      I am a no for Colon based on the mere fact that he has no options. If he comes up he has to stay on the team and we are demoting another player with options.

      We just added Nate Jones today (no options) so he has to stay for some time.
      Now to bring up a minor league starter for the 3 times which are needed for Bauer, either Bowman, Iglesias or Lorenzen have to be demoted or we will need multiple bullpen games when 3 or 4 of the 7 relievers are used pretty much every game so there may not even be an options to start a reliever since none that have pitched in 2 days can be the started.

      Based on the feedback when trying to move Miley, the assumption is that Bowman is the only one which Strat-O-Matic would think is viable or cut Reed, Sims. I would find it surprising if they would allow us to cut Jones 3 games after bring him up.

      I vote Yes on Aquino down and Garcia up as if Garcia does not work out he can be optioned without a fuss.

      When Votto comes off the DL (the 13th??) someone has to be demoted that has options: Winker, Payton, or Stephenson are all that are left as positions players with options. Winker is hopefully an obvious no to everyone. We want to see if Stephenson can play before asking to cut Casali (not sure Start-O-Matic will allow that to occur) as I doubt the real Reds would cut Casali. That pretty much leaves Payton will have to be sent to the minors or we see if we can cut Dietrich.

      We have pretty much changed our roster that has no flexibility and adding Colon further makes what is a bad roster for options worse.

      • RedsEuphoria

        Very good point. Maybe it would be better to give Colón a shot at a different point in time, when we have more flexibility, or when the real MLB season is closer to starting (provided that this sim will disappear around then). I will vote for Jose Gárcia then, because he does have options and we can demote him if he underperforms. I’m for giving a new player a shot.

        I now vote Jose Garcia up, Aquino down

  13. BK

    After reading everyone’s inputs, I don’t see any better options to start in the infield over the players we currently have on the roster. Tomorrow’s lineup:

    CF – Lorenzen
    RF – Akiyama
    LF – Ervin
    3B – Suarez
    2B – Moustakas
    C – T. Stephenson
    1B – Winker
    P – Miley
    SS – Galvis

    Go Reds!

    • Melvin

      Absolutely! Go BK and the Reds! Keeping in mind a point Tom made, hopefully you’ll still be on a winning streak and be able to make this decision for yourself but whoever the manager is the next time Castillo pitches might want to consider and be thinking about the best possible defensive lineup.

    • Jon Davis

      Before I forget congrats to Manager BK nice win today. I like the lineup I only have one suggestion/wondering your thoughts on. Playing Casali 7 for 14 against Price with 3 HRs or maybe Castellanos over Winker? Just a tiny baby thought and sorry if you already addressed this and I missed it.

      • RedsEuphoria

        I would support Castellanos over Winker, because of his .425 OBP against LHP last year (2019). That was better than anyone else currently on the Reds, although Suarez was close with .417 and Ervin with .411. It really is difficult to keep someone who hit at an above .400 OBP vs. a certain type of pitcher out of the lineup vs. their specialty.

        We have no such specialties vs. RHP, although Akiyama has proven himself to be such in this sim, and perhaps Winker and Payton could be big-time strengths vs. RHP? Someone should dig into the splits for Winker/Peyton vs. RHP and LHP if they can, because that could tell us a lot about who we should include in the line-up vs. RHP.

      • RedsEuphoria

        Put another way, Castellanos had the best OBP of any player we have from 2019 stats vs. a particular handed pitcher (LHP) of anyone on our team. Why don’t we try to make the most out of that?

      • BK

        Two great questions:

        Casali … yes, he has crushed Price in the past, but they haven’t faced each other since 2016. So, I discounted that data as too old to be useful.

        Winker playing 1B … that was my hardest decision. I’m well aware of his splits against LHP and others historic positive splits against LHP (especially Castellanos). Sim Castellanos has disappointed to say the least. He’s just not coming any where close to his historic production. By my estimate, Winker has a 20 point OPS+ advantage over Castellanos and a 24 point OPS+ advantage over Casali. Where we have a good sample size, I am leaning more to this years productivity. To mitigate my concerns, I placed Winker 7th in the batting order right in front of the pitcher. I’m hoping this will earn Winker a walk or two and Miley can bunt him over.

      • Jon Davis

        Ok BK fair enough and thanks for the feedback.

    • Gonzo Reds

      I don’t agree with Ervin, a lefty who struggles against lefties, against Price (same as I didn’t agree with Lorenzen yesterday R ag R and he went 0-4). Ervin way more valuable coming off the bench later against a RH RP. Aquino has no data against Price so won’t be predetermined to fail. Also, again, why start Stephenson when Casali is hitting a team high .500 with 3 HRs against Price?

      • BK

        Ervin is a RH hitter and he crushes LHP in reality and he’s crushed everyone in simland.

      • RedsEuphoria

        I think you meant Winker, not Ervin?

  14. BK

    I think we need another IF on the team vice Aquino. I don’t think any of the available options will/should start over the current lineup. So, if we are looking for a solid backup, I would prefer Colon over Garcia (Blandino would work, too). To me, there’s a good bit of risk in Garcia (even more so than promoting T. Stephenson). We’re taking risk by:

    1. Playing Lorenzen almost daily in the outfield … thus far we’ve been rewarded
    2. Playing Winker/Castellanos at 1B to get an extra bat in the lineup … so far, mostly good defensively, Castellanos bat has been mostly dead.
    3. Promoting T. Stephenson to starting catcher … day 1 went well

    My risk tolerance is maxed out right now. We have a pretty goofy position player roster and do need to bring up an infielder over Aquino. We need to give the in-game manager good options for defense.

    • BK

      I vote Aquino down and an infielder up. Preferred order:

      1. Blandino (he’s on the 40-man)
      2. Colon (I like him just as well as Blandino)
      3. Garcia (not against it, just don’t think it’s as realistic as the other options–he’s not really shown that he’s ready for promotion). Chasing a pennant, I would prefer a less risky option.

      • Don

        I would prefer Blandino over Colon for the mere reason of minor league options.

        So Aqunio down and either Blandino or Garcia, not Colon as the GM would not have any options then after Votto comes off the IL

  15. Jon Davis

    Sorry I am late I got roped into doing a bunch of stuff at my sister’s. I plan to post this everyday as soon as possible sorry again about today.

    Current Roster
    (*-indicates player has NO options, +-indicates player is LHP)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – T. Stephenson, *Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *Moustakas, *Suarez, *Galvis, *Dietrich
    OF – Akiyama, Lorenzen, *Ervin, *Castellanos, Payton, Winker, Aquino
    IL – *Votto (Ready to return on 6/13)
    SP – *Desclafani, *Gray, +*Miley, Castillo
    RP – +*Reed, Bowman, Iglesias, +*Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, Jones
    IL – *Bauer (Ready to return on 6/24)

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Farmer
    IF – Vanmeter, Blandino
    OF – Senzel, Jankowski, *Schebler
    SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Hendrix, Kuhnel, Shafer, +Smith+

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey?
    IF – India, Garcia, Davidson, Colon, Rodriguez, Trahan
    OF – Friedl, Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, Hannah, Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

      • Jon Davis

        You are welcome I am always happy to be of assistance.

  16. Jon Davis

    As far as the roster talk I would have to say I agree with whoever said, sorry I was trying to read all the comments fast, we need to move an OF for an IF. So definitely send down Aquino, he is the obvious choice and my vote is to call up Blandino.

    • Gonzo Reds

      I strongly vote against Blandino being called up. He’s at best a .250 hitter with no power at all. Rather call up any of our youngsters over him. I also again think Aquino should be in the starting lineup tomorrow not demoted.

      • BK

        The goal is to have someone that can play infield as a defensive late inning defensive replacement or cover for an in-game injury. Blandino has the versatility to do that. I don’t think anyone is really trying to compare ability or potential of the two players. We’re trying to find the right balance on the roster so we don’t lose a game because we planned poorly for a variety of game situations.

        From a hitting perspective, there is one area where Blandino outshines Aquino and that is OBP. Blandino’s career .349 OBP in 197 PA bests Aquino’s mark of .314 in 226 PA–that’s roughly the same sample size. That means Blandino is also a guy you can use as a pinch hitter to lead off an inning. Payton brings a similar skill as a LH hitter, but none of our RH bench players have that skill.

        I estimated our players OPS+. This stat includes a park factor which I would have had to manually calculate, so I skipped that step. Given that GABP is a hitters park, the Reds OPS+ are probably slightly high. That said, sim-Aquino is down 35% from last year. He’s below average tied with Curt Casali in productivity. It’s quite possible sim Blandino out produces that mark.

        I get that it’s not a flashy move. But Blandino makes a lot of sense for our current situation.

  17. Melvin

    Poor Tom. It can’t be easy figuring out who voted for what. Maybe we can come up with a better easier way for you to keep track. I know we all appreciate you. Thanks.

    • RedsEuphoria

      Maybe first comment in the thread contains all votes–and nothing counts if it is not under there? At least while there is high activity, this might work. Tom could just copy “All votes go here, or they will not count” as a message and make it the first post to each article. That would make it much more organized, although we would have to account for both lineup votes AND roster move votes there, which could get a little bit messy, but would be manageable.

      Alternatively, he could also post an “All roster move votes go here, or they will not count” post and an “All lineup votes go here, or they will not count” post to organize even more.

  18. Tom Mitsoff

    Brilliant discussion! I tallied votes by going from the bottom up to get each person’s last entry, presuming that to be the one they want.

    Aquino definitely being sent down — 6 yes, 1 no
    The Blandino/Garcia vote was ultra tight. I counted 3 yes, 1 no for Blandino, three yes for Garcia. Seems the only way to break the tie in yeses is to give weight to the one no for Blandino. So Garcia will be promoted.

    And I do have BK’s lineup. I hope we’ll do some damage against David Price!

    • RedsEuphoria

      Excited to see what Garcia will bring to the table! Hopefully calling him up works out.

      • Melvin

        Hopefully it will at least be a little fun for everyone at least for a little while but who knows? Maybe he’ll exceed all our expectations. We’ll find out! 🙂

    • Melvin

      Thanks Tom. As I said we need to find a way to make it easier on you. I like what RedsEuphoria said. If someone wants their vote counted they should put their intention at the very beginning of the post and anything underneath doesn’t count. That’s at least a small way we could all help. 🙂

      • RedsEuphoria

        You are close, but I meant Tom would make a post saying ““All roster move votes go here, or they will not count” and another one saying “All lineup votes go here, or they will not count” after creating the thread, and we would all reply to it.

      • RedsEuphoria

        Although this would work as well. Whichever Tom would prefer!

      • Melvin

        Sounds good. Whatever works best for Tom I’m good with. Good suggestions.

    • BK

      Thanks Tom … shoe-in for sim Baseball Executive of the Year!

      • Melvin

        All around good guy of the year award too.

    • Gonzo Reds

      I am excited to see what Garcia can do over Blandino. I know we have so many options now it gets a little crazy and I take full responsibility for that since I was the one who asked the question to open pandora’s box of minor leaguers. If Garcia starts hot we may be talking about sending Derek D out for Votto…

      With that being said… we might be kicking ourselves for not starting Casali and his history against Price for “playing Stephenson everyday” but we’ll see how it plays out. Certainly BK’s choice and he made it!

      Speaking of which I’d still like to discuss before Friday… who we’d like to see promoted to take Saturday’s start. I think that was what Tom said was the next time we’d need to have someone up? We’ve already seen Mahle and he’s not been good. Sims is a possibility who’s pitched well before in spot starts. Or we can promote a minor leaguer, Santillan(on40)/Greene/Lodelo etc. Or the dreaded bullpen game – where we likely start Lorenzen putting the pitcher spot in the… wait for it… one hole. Yep, perhaps that’s never been done in MLB history?

  19. Don

    Rules for Bauer’s starts and options

    1) We are permitted to adjust the rotation as long as the pitcher starting on any given day has four days rest.

    2) starting an “opener” (reliever) and having a bullpen day; a reliever who has pitched in each of the past two days cannot be an “opener,”

    3) Demote a reliever and bring up a starter

    Here is the schedule which needs to be planned:

    6-9 Dodgers – Disco (yesterday)
    6-10 – Dodgers – Miley
    6-11 – Dodgers – Castillo
    6-12 – @ Brewers – Gray
    6-13 – @ Brewers – ??????
    6-14 – @ Brewers – Disco
    6-15 – Off Day
    6-16 – @ Padres – Miley
    6-17 – @ Padres – Castillo
    6-18 – @ Padres – Gray
    6-19 – @ Padres – ??????
    6-20 – @ Cards – Disco
    6-21 – @ Cards – Miley
    6-22 – Off Day
    6-23 – Cubs Castillo
    6-24 – Cubs Gray
    6-25 – Cubs Bauer

    This would be my proposed strategy (assuming no other injuries) for managing the pitching staff while Bauer is on IL.

    Options for June 13th
    1) No starter available – Disco only has 3 days rest

    2) If an “opener” then we need to identify today (June 10th) so he does not pitch 11th or 12th.

    3) Bring up Mahle, De Leon, Antone or Santillan to start

    Santillan – nothing above AA and regressed in AA 2019 (ERA 4.84,WHIP 1.60)
    Antone – 2019 – Very good in AA, did not succeed in AAA (ERA 4.65,WHIP 1.73)
    De Leon – 2019 – Very good in AAA (ERA 3.51,WHIP 1.32), had 4 MLB starts with Dodgers in 2016
    Mahle – 2019 Bad W-L and ERA in 2019 but better than average advanced metric numbers
    – Projected to be the Reds 6th starter in real life
    – In the MLBtraderumors fantasy 2020 expansion draft he was taken 22nd so there are “experts” whom think he has value at the MLB level.
    – In the Baseball-reference Sim he is starting every 5th day (No Miley in that Sim) with a 5-5 record, 4.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 1.0 WAR so he is above average in that SIM.

    I would think Mahle or DeLeon are the best options.

    I vote for Mahle for the 13th vs Brewers (demote Bowman (has option, Lorenzen or Iglesias don’t makes sense) and plan to demote Mahle the next day and bring up Hendrix (as Bowman replacement in Bullpen).

    Options for 6-19
    1) Disco (which moves the opener or Minor starter to the 20th vs Cards)

    2) Opener (would need to identify on 6-17 as 6-19 probable)

    3) Demote Hendrix and bring up De Leon to start vs Padres, then demote De Leon the next day and bring up Kuhnel for bullpen until Bauer returns

    4) While looking at Lorenzen’s status, if he starts the next 9 games, he earns “two-way” status on after the 3rd Padres game. We could pitch Disco on the 19th and bring up De Leon for the 1st Cards game as a 14th pitcher. To do this either demote Payton or release Dietrich (whichever one was not done when Votto returns on the 13th) would need to be the corresponding roster move. That is unless Stephenson totally bombs these 9 games, then demote him. After the game demote De Leon and bring up Kuhnel for the few days until Bauer can return. At that time decide if Kuhnel or Hendrix should be demoted for Bauer.

    Lots of moving parts as possibilities.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Here is the tentative plan I sketched out, with the intent of maximizing Castillo, Gray and DeSclafani starts and taking advantage of two off-days during Bauer’s absence. Starting pitchers MUST have four days of rest between starts.

      Wednesday, June 10 — Miley
      Thursday, June 11 — Castillo
      Friday, June 12 — Gray
      Saturday, June 13 — (reliever or someone else)
      Sunday, June 14 — DeSclafani
      Monday, June 15 — off day
      Tuesday, June 16 — Castillo
      Wednesday, June 17 — Gray
      Thursday, June 18 — (Miley or reliever or someone else)
      Friday, June 19 — DeSclafani
      Saturday, June 20 — (reliever or someone else or Miley if not used Thursday)
      Sunday, June 21 — Castillo
      Monday, June 22 — off day
      Tuesday, June 23 — Gray

      Wednesday, June 24 — Bauer (Bauer’s first eligible return date)
      Thursday, June 25 — DeSclafani
      Friday, June 26 — Castillo
      Saturday, June 27 — Miley
      Sunday, June 28 — Gray
      Monday, June 29 — Bauer
      Tuesday, June 30 — DeSclafani

      The manager on those to-be-determined days can certainly consider input from the group, but since it’s part of making the lineup those days, he will ultimately get to choose that day’s pitcher.

      • Don

        Tom,

        That is a very ingenious use of the pitchers to try to get the maximum usage from Castillo, Gray and Disco and something I did not think of doing. Those an ingenious ideas.

        For the use of Miley, looking at the lefty hitters for Padres & Cards
        For the players in the top 10 for PAs.
        Padres have 2 lefties:
        Eric Hosmer (PA 244, OB 352)
        Trent Grisham (PA177, OB 328)
        Cards have 3 lefties:
        Carpenter (PA 203,OB 414)
        Wong (PA 172, OB 326)
        Brad Miller (PA 97,OB 299)

        So my vote would be save a very rested Miley for the Cards on the 20th and use someone else vs the Padres on the 18th

      • Don

        I would think Mahle and De Leon for the two starts on the 13th and 18th instead of bullpen days.

        Moving them on and off the 26-man with the onee reliever spot (Bowman) that has options while using Kuhnel and Hendrix (to manage the must be in minors for 10 days rule) during this time.

        Based on 2019 stats, Mahle’s 1 start vs padres (4 runs in 7 innings) was better than his 2 starts vs the Brewers (10 runs in 8.1 innings).

        So to fill in your question mark spots
        1) De Leon on the 13th
        2) Mahle on the 18th
        3) Miley on the 20th

      • Gonzo Reds

        The manager for that day gets to pick the SP but of course the choices they pick from will have to be on the active roster. And to make Lorenzen available as the bullpen day opening starter out of the one hole we have to either start him Thur/Fri in the outfield or tell Strat-o-matic today not to use him out of the pen Thur/Fri. In other words, we have to plan ahead to have all options on the table for Saturday’s manager whoever that might be.

      • Melvin

        A thought came to my mind that one option for an opener is Lorenzen himself. May not be the best but he hasn’t pitched much lately and if he keeps on starting in the outfield he won’t. Who knows, as a temporary SP he may be better this year in sim world. I don’t know if it’s possible to tell Strato that we want him to stay in the game in the outfield after pitching. If so that’s an option that might be worth considering. At least for a few innings we’d have basically a DH situation with 9 batters.

  20. BK

    Gonzo, to clarify my thinking:

    1. I started T. Stephenson because we collectively voted to call him up and see if we can upgrade the catching position. BTW, I was not for that move (mostly based on timing), but I will support collective decisions on days I manage–I was clearly in the minority on delaying TS promotion. Barnhart and Casali have done little for us. There’s good reason to believe we had an internal upgrade option.

    2. I gave serious consideration to starting Casali at 1B over Winker. Winker has bad split results against LHP, although I will say, he’s faced relatively little LHP in his career. Winker was 3 for 5 on Sunday vs. LHP Lester. He’s raised his batting average by 24 points over the last 12 days … in short, he’s on a hot streak. Alternatively, Casali hit RHP better than LHP. He played 1B last year, but in his limited sample size earned very poor defensive marks. Casali’s batting average has dropped 43 points over the last 2+ weeks … he’s ice cold. His numbers against Price are impressive, but very dated (4 to 7 years old). Also, the sample size is very small.
    I doubt data that old has any relevance in the simulation or frankly in an actual game.

    So, for what it’s worth … I’ve now shown you all of the homework I put into the decision.

    • Gonzo Reds

      Thanks BK I appreciate that. You’ve already shown me more than the owners have shown the players about their financials. 😉

      A day inside the strat-o-matic war room when they are making up cards would probably solve alot of our arguments. What goes into making a player card and how is it weighted? Perhaps stats against certain players isn’t even a factor, maybe against lefty or righty is all that matters. I was interested to see if Aquino’s 2 HR’s and .400 average against a SP and Casali’s 3 HR’s and .500 average against a SP would result in a multi-hit game and dinger that might win us a game and keep us looking for these trends going forward.

      Bottom line, we all want to figure out what stats to look at to figure out what gives us the best chance to win and beat the hated Cards and stupid Cubs. We already got some more info on fielding stats affecting games.

      Tom, have you or can you ask Strat-o-matic what goes into making up a card? Only 2019 stats? Lefty/righty splits factored in? Do stats against specific pitchers or hitters get factored in and if so is it lifetime stats or just any from the previous year? And very important for our minor leaguers… what if they have no MLB experience… what do they use in making their card?

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Gonzo, they told me previously that the cards for this simulation are based on “projected” stats. Someone or a team of people create a card based on what they believe will be someone’s stats. In each case that we have requested someone from the minors with no experience, I have sent the link to that player’s baseball-reference.com page so they are not completely guessing.

        One of Strat-O-Matic’s products is complete seasons from the past. For the 2019 season, for example, the cards would have come as close as possible to recreate individual players’ stats from that particular season. But it is my understanding that the current simulation is not using 2019 as the only guide, but their best efforts to simulate what the 2020 season would be like. They don’t have those stats yet, so they are projecting them by whatever method they use.

        I can tell you with certainty from having played the game in the past that left-right splits are very much a part of the cards. But historical results against specific players are not.

      • Melvin

        Tom. Again that’s interesting in that the debate came up yesterday again about a player having played other positions in his career (Moose) that he hadn’t played last year and whether or not that would give him an automatic worst defensive rating. That kind of sounds like to me that we wouldn’t have to worry about that and that Strato would take into consideration a players entire career as to what positions he’s played. What do you think about that? It also sounds like, correct me if I’m wrong, that Strato would take into consideration someone like Garcia who played 2018 primarily at 2B and last year at SS. If so we would have an option either way.

      • Gonzo Reds

        Thanks Tom for sharing that. I will therefore stop looking at against player stats and just concentrate on how good they are against a lefty or righty and of course keep D in the back of my mind although that would just be a tie-breaker for me. You can play defense like crazy but if you don’t score any runs you still aren’t going to win.

        Played the game as a kid but don’t remember too much other than spinning and seeing where the arrow landed. I remember Bernie Carbo had a big HR section as well as a big K section. Why I remember him specifically as a Reds fan I really don’t know. 🙂