Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Cubs 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 12 2
Reds 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 1 X 5 12 1

Eugenio Suarez’s three-run home run in the seventh inning off Jeremy Jeffress was the key moment in the Cincinnati Reds (32-34) scoring a 5-4 victory over the division rival Chicago Cubs (36-31) at Great American Ball Park.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


Along with Suarez’s bat, you can credit Raisel Iglesias with an amazing effort in the top of the ninth to preserve the sim Reds’ lead and the win. With the Reds up 5-3, Jason Heyward led off with a single, then Kris Bryant doubled to put runners on second and third with nobody out. Iglesias bounced a wild pitch past catcher Curt Casali to score Heyward and move the tying run, Bryant, to third, with nobody out. But Iglesias had perhaps his most amazing effort of the season in striking out Javier Baez and Willson Contreras, the heart of the Chicago batting order, then inducing Jason Kipnis to fly out to end the game and leave Bryant on third.

With the score tied at 1-1 headed to the bottom of the seventh, Shogo Akiyama and Phillip Ervin led off with back-to-back singles against Jeffress. Michael Lorenzen then sacrifice bunted them to second and third, and Suarez followed with his 19th bomb of the year.

What turned out to be a crucial insurance run was added when steady Freddy Galvis led off the bottom of the eighth with a homer against reliever Rowan Wick.

Akiyama continues to be, in a word, superhuman. His three hits boosted his batting average to .384, and his hitting streak to 15 consecutive games. Jesse Winker also rapped three hits in a winning effort.

It wasn’t all good news for the sim Reds, however. Starting pitcher Trevor Bauer was injured as he delivered a pitch to Contreras in the top of the fourth inning. Bauer will miss 10 games, but according to the Strat-O-Matic rules, pitchers who are disabled must go on a minimum of the 15-day injured list. Redleg Nation commenters will be asked to vote on which pitcher to recall from the minors to replace Bauer for at least two and possibly three starts.

The win snapped the sim Reds’ four-game losing streak, and moved them within six games of division-leading St. Louis, who lost to Pittsburgh.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

B-Pinch Hit For Lester In 7th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Ryan In 8th Inning

A-Pinch Hit For Stephenson In 6th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Strop In 7th Inning
E-Subbed Defensively (1B) For Reed In 9th Inning

Standings following the June 7 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cardinals 38 28 .576 0.0
Cubs 36 31 .537 2.5
Brewers 34 31 .523 3.5
Reds 32 34 .485 6.0
Pirates 28 37 .431 9.5

The 2020 schedule as currently constituted has the Reds off Monday, and resuming play on Tuesday at Great American Ball Park against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Anthony DeSclafani will pitch the first of the three-game series for the Reds, and righthander Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles.

How are the simReds performing?

The Hitters

The Pitchers

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

BK has priority for Tuesday’s lineup vs. the Dodgers since he was a winner today. Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Jon Davis 6 2 .750
BK 8 4 .667
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
James Owens 3 2 .600
Gonzo Reds 3 3 .500
Redsfan4life 3 3 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Melvin 1 4 .200
Don 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

138 Responses

  1. Tom Mitsoff

    Guys, when they said no about Miley, it occurred to me to ask about Castillo’s performance. I told Strat that Reds fans view him as a borderline Cy Young candidate, but certainly he’s been nowhere near that. Here was the response:

    ——

    His card is good but ignoring the Strat card and just looking from a stats perspective, his BABIP is .340, much higher than in his career and an indicator of bad luck. Something that goes into that though, the Reds defense is tied for worst in the league in Outs/X-Chance (think DRS or UZR). Some of that is Suarez under performing, Moose/Castellanos were bat-first signings. Neither make many errors but have below average range.

    Back to Castillo, the BABIP is high, walks are high, and his LOB% is extremely low, 60.1%. That’s bound to improve but he just happens to be giving up hits when he already has runners on at a rate much higher than typical. Certainly bad luck. His FIP is 4.46, still below his expectation but much better than his ERA.

    ——–

    So Strat is saying it’s a combination of bad luck and bad defense — not just errors, but bad defensive range. Whoever is manager when Castillo pitches next might want to put the best defensive lineup possible out there and see if there is any difference.

  2. Tom Mitsoff

    For those who didn’t see it, I posted the message below earlier today on the Saturday game thread:

    Gentlemen, this message from Strat-O-Matic to me Sunday morning, FYI:

    ——

    Really don’t like the Miley move… would never happen. They just signed him to a 2 year deal and he’s pitching right in line with expectations, giving up more homers but also walking less… Can they move him to the bullpen instead? He would never get cut

    Then they can send Bowman down or cut Sims or Reed. I won’t make this move right now since it won’t matter until Wednesday, the next time Miley is scheduled to pitch.

    ——-

    We’ll need to reconsider how to get Lodolo on the roster, if indeed we still want to do that.

    • Jon Davis

      Ok Tom I would like to do a full recap so that we are all on the same page and know exactly where the 26 and 40 man rosters stand. For the pitching I included the guys who I think could be starting options. So as I understand it and guys correct me if I’m wrong.
      (*-indicates player has NO options, +-indicates player is LHP)

      Our current 26 man roster is:
      C – T. Stephenson, *Barnhart, *Casali
      IF – *Moustakas, *Suarez, *Galvis, *Dietrich
      OF – Akiyama, Lorenzen, *Ervin, *Castellanos, Payton, Winker, Aquino
      IL – *Votto (Ready to return on 6/11)

      SP – *Desclafani, *Gray, +*Miley, Castillo
      LRP – *Sims
      RP – +*Reed, Bowman, Iglesias, +*Garrett, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen
      IL – *Bauer (Ready to return on 6/22)

      Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
      C – Farmer
      IF – Vanmeter, Blandino,
      OF – Senzel, Jankowski, *Schebler

      SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
      RP – Hendrix, Kuhnel, Shafer, +Smith+

      Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
      C – Chris Okey?
      IF – India, Garcia, Davidson, Colon, Rodriguez, Trahan
      OF – Friedl, Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, Hannah, Siani
      SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
      RP – Thornburg, Jones, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

      • Jon Davis

        I plan to keep this up to date and post it whenever we make a move. It is dinner time so I will be back to discuss the roster options Moving forward and tuesdays lineup. Oh almost forgot way to go BK thanks for breaking the losing streak. I hope you can get a winning streak going.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Jon, thank you. There have been a lot of moves, and it is real easy to lose track of everything. Your roster list is correct. We need to add a pitcher for Bauer for Tuesday.

      • Don

        Jon, Roster looks correct to me

        Votto IL transaction is listed on the Strat-O-Matic site on June 3rd so I think he cannot come back to the 13th.

        Bauer’s next start is the 13th so unless he goes on the IL, which I do not think he should with the upcoming off day (see write up below).

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Don, I also have in my notes that Votto is eligible to return on the 13th.

      • Jon Davis

        Ok Don and Tom thank you for the update I have made the adjustment to Vottos return in my books.

  3. BK

    I suggest we keep Miley on the roster–we should promote Mahle. We got a brief look at him earlier. We can test drive him for a couple of starts.

    I suggest we replace Bauer with Kuhnel, tomorrow. We need to bolster the bullpen immediately after the 6 innings of relief work, today.

    I suggest we replace Aquino with Nate Jones–solid major league track record. For the next week plus I suggest we treat Lorenzen as in OF. We simply don’t need 7 outfielders on the roster. (If we do as I propose, we’ll have Winker, Ervin, Akiyama, Lorenzen, Payton and Castellanos on the roster)

    Do we really want to promote Lodolo? In other words, why do we think a player with no experience above low A Ball (that’s all the Strato guys will have to work with is going to help our team more than those that have solid track records at AA/AAA (Kuhnel, Hendrix, N. Jones, etc.)?

    We do well (don’t win every game) when we put a good lineup on the field based on Strato data and our scouting of opposing pitchers. I’m going to hold off on a lineup until I see how others want to go.

    • BK

      And by promote Mahle, I mean when we need a starter. Someone with options, like Kuhnel, should join the bullpen for a couple of days.

      • Gonzo Reds

        I’d prefer to give Santillan a couple of starts in Bauer’s place. Promote Hendrix for a couple of days and then option him for Santillan’s start on I guess it would be for Saturday.

    • Jon Davis

      Mostly agree with you BK Aquino is more luxury right now but we have little chances to use him and we have need elsewhere. The Lodolo thing I am starting to come around on clearly we were all just excited and went potential happy thus Lodolo and Greene. For now we have other options that are more likely to work out. The only thing I disagree with is Jones it seems Strato is going to steer away from big 40 man roster moves and if we went with him we have to decide who to drop so I think we are better off working with guys on the 40 man roster first.

  4. Melvin

    Good win finally against the Cubs. Bauer hurt lol. Seems like Strato likes to challenge us with our best players getting hurt. Will have to think about today and digest all of the possible moves. There’s a lot to consider. As I said earlier I’m glad we didn’t lose Miley. Waiting to hear the debate. Tom I know you generally don’t include yourself much but it is welcome in my view of you want.

    • Melvin

      Did notice another passed ball by Casali again today. Hmm I wander how many that is now?

      • BK

        I saw that, too. I’m thinking the point of calling Tyler Stephenson up was to see if we can get some improvement at catcher. It’s is the weakest position in our lineup.

        Winker did fine, but he had no fielding chances aside from assisted putouts. Perhaps our improved outfield defense will begin to help out our pitchers. We will be “bat first” at 1B, 2B and 3B.

      • Melvin

        Well if Lorenzen does play more that will help. Akiyama is good too. Ervin is so so.

      • Melvin

        I’m also glad we didn’t cut a catcher yesterday. May need to eventually as we don’t need three. We should give Stephenson a good amount of chances first to see what we have.

    • BK

      Yes, I’d love to hear out GM’s point of view!

      • Tom Mitsoff

        I was surprised by the note I received about Miley. Not necessarily in a bad way. It says to me they are trying to keep the integrity of the simulation intact as much as possible.

        I was also somewhat stunned in a positive way from the note about Castillo. They have some amazing stats they are keeping! BABIP! Wow. They replied that the card is good, which means they are not going to make a bad card for a good player. I suspect when we look back after 162 games (if they play out that many) that the statistics per player will be relatively close to what we might expect in most cases. Castillo might be an exception, but one would think that the larger the sample size, the more things will even out.

        I found it revealing that the sim Reds rank last in defense — not errors, but defensive range. Some of that is because there are a lot of not so good defensive players on the team, and some of it is due to the fact that in some cases we are putting players in positions they don’t play or have never played. In the case of Winker at first base, we’ll never know based on the play by play we are provided. But on the game cards, many batted balls to a specific position have an X designation. That means whether or not the ball is fielded depends on the defender’s fielding rating. Think about it in terms of you might as well put yourself at some defensive position. It would be exciting, but you probably wouldn’t stop many hard-hit balls because you don’t have the experience or the range.

        Winker at first worked out today, but there is no way to know how many occasions moves like that have hurt us. Maybe none. Maybe a lot. The fact that they pointed that out indicates they think we might be doing something to help mess up what they think is a good card for Castillo.

        I think it’s time to take a look at Tyler Stephenson. As mentioned above, catcher is clearly the worst position in the sim. Casali is hitting decently, but he has several passed balls and allowed a wild pitch today. Barnhart we know is good defensively, but can’t hit a lick. Stephenson had a good year at Class AA, and I have no idea how that will translate to his Strat card.

        Most importantly, this is all about you guys having fun with this. One of the goals of doing sim recaps daily is to bring readers to Redleg Nation as often as possible while there is no actual baseball. Doug Gray treats his writers very well, and his website revenue (which comes from impressions of online ads) has been impacted by not having actual baseball here. I think we have a great core group here, and I hope even more will join in. I have attempted to build revenue-generating websites in the past, and I will tell you it is very, very difficult. Doug has done a great job with his, and this daily sim series is allowing us to have fun, be distracted, and also hopefully help boost Doug’s revenue until real baseball returns.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Regarding injuries, I can assure you that it is all random. Nearly every player (with the possible exception of Cal Ripken 😉 ) has one dice roll result on his card that includes an injury. Then the number of days out of action for an injury is generated by a random number generator.

      The Cubs had two starters out for this past series, so it’s not just us.

      • Melvin

        I sent a similar message like this one but it didn’t go through. If it shows up later forgive me. Thanks Tom for your input as it always helps us. Please do it more if you’d like. Stephenson is a good idea and if he performs Casali I’m assuming will be DFA. On the pitching side I’m wandering if we have an option to move our current 4 starters up intil Bauer comes back since we’ll have off days.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        The answer is we can make use of off-days to skip pitchers in the rotation, as long as the pitcher who is starting that day has had at least four days of rest.

        With that in mind, we can do this over the next two weeks, with the need for a to-be-named starting pitcher on the next two Saturdays.

      • Melvin

        Thanks Tom. I guess now we have to ask ourselves do we want to do that and bring up a reliever, keep Bauer off the IL…or something else?:)

    • Jon Davis

      Yes Melvin I very much agree. As BK said I had much buyers remorse allowing my urge to make moves over take my brain. I am more on the Miley thing than the C thing but only because I don’t like carrying 3 catchers with very little to no positional flexibility.

  5. Redsfan4life

    I like the moves BK Kuhnel up for Bauer and we have no need for Aquino so Jones up for him.

    • Redsfan4life

      DFA Casali call up Stephenson and lets give him the starting job for a few weeks see what he can do. If he fails we can fall back to Barnhart.
      Lets move Winker to 1b till Votto comes back. Lets use Lorenzen everyday in CF ,Shogo/Senzel platoon in RF and in LF Payton/Ervin platoon. Try to shore up OF Defense.
      Votto return Winker will have to go back to OF. But in meantime platoon him at 1b with Castellanos. Dietrich is a bench player only.

      • Don

        Redsfan4life, These moves were made before Today’s game

        CIN- OF Nick Senzel and UTL Kyle Farmer sent down, OF Aristedes Aquino and C Tyler Stephenson called up

        This is the current active position player roster

        Suarez
        Galvis
        Mouse
        Castellanos
        Winker
        Akiyama
        Barnhart
        Ervin
        Casali
        Payton
        Aquino
        Dietrich
        Stephenson
        &
        Lorenzen

  6. Don

    I guess that the Strat-o-Matic being the MLB commissioner office and saying that roster move makes no sense and is being disallowed. I would agree as that Miley is doing about what a 5th starter will do.

    For Bauer is he out 10 games (this is what is on Strat-o-Matic game summary) or 10 days as if it is 10 days, there are two off days in the next 10 which means he would only miss one start if it is as 10 days and if it is 10 games them a slight shuffle to the rotation is needed with a single start missed (see below)

    I would vote against putting Bauer on the 15 Day IL with the 2 off day coming up, he is the Reds best SIM Pitcher and the team cannot afford him missing three starts.
    Monday (6-8) is an off day and Bowman (2 innings) should be the only one relief pitcher not available for Tuesday so I do not think someone needs to be called up today.

    Up coming Schedule with Projected starter (prior to injury):

    6-8 Off Day
    6-9,10,11 LAD (Disco, Miley,Castillo)
    6-12,13,14 @ Brewers, (Gray,Bauer,Disco)
    6-15 – Off Day
    6-16,17,18 -@ Padres (Miley,Castillo,Gray)
    6-19,20,21 – @ Cards (Bauer or Disco,Bauer or Disco,Miley)
    If Bauer can pitch on the 19th (12 days,9 games) use him there, if it is 10 games he is out, then pitch Disco on normal 5 day rest on the 19th and pitch Bauer on the 20th.

    My suggestion is tell Strat-O-Matic that Sims is getting the start on the 13th and to not have him pitch from the bullpen on the 11th or 12th.

    My roster suggestion would be to demote Payton before the game on the 11th (Thursday) and bring up Kuhnel to reinforce bullpen or Hendrix to replace Sims in the bullpen as Doug mentioned a while ago he has good minor league numbers.

    Then on the 13th when Votto can come off the IL, demote a relief pitcher.

    My reasoning is that Payton is not used as a Pinch Hitter (1 time only) and will not be starting with a healthy Akiyama;Ervin and Winker have higher BA, OBP and SLG; along with Castellanos in the OF. If an OF gets hurt and put on IL he can be brought back up the next game.

    Aquino and Deitrich are the HR power off the bench so he is not needed there.

    Hope this makes sense.

    • BK

      The Strato box score indicates Bauer is out for 10 games which means 12 days if we don’t IL him and 15 if we do.

      Here’s the difference in production between Aquino and Payton:

      Aquino. OPS, bottom 39% of all sim MLB hitters; 38% K rate
      Payton. Top 20% of all sim MLB player in OPS; 23% K rate

      Payton can play all three outfield spots. Aquino is a RF only player–strato won’t insert him elsewhere unless he’s the only player left so we also take a little versatility hit. I was surprised that Payton didn’t pinch hit, today. We may be able to fix that by telling Strato that we want Payton to be the first PH vs. any RHP.

    • Jon Davis

      I am not opposed to your thinking on Bauer here if he only misses the start on the 13th and we can move Disco up to the 19th on regular rest as you mentioned. Then he can return for the 20th. But we need someone for the bullpen and I feel Aquino is too all or nothing and would rather keep Payton. It is close though I am torn ideally we would not be keeping 3 catchers but seems we need to for now.

    • Jon Davis

      Oh I almost forgot what is the deal with you and Sims? Of all the guys who have struggled why do you seem intent on getting rid of him?

  7. Don

    The information on Castillo is very interesting and the defensive range comments.

    I think it was last weekend when I ran the numbers and the Reds offense was the highest scoring per game in the NL Central but the defense was giving up the 3rd most runs per game which was contributing to the loosing. Would need to check again.

    There is not a lot of above average defense on the Reds roster. Galvis in the Infield and I would guess Akiyama and Ervinare average in the outfield and everyone else on the roster is below average.

    Does Strat-o-Matic uses the infield shift like real life baseball?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      I doubt it, but I am not sure.

  8. BK

    As for the defense, yesterday, I went through each of the games where we played a player out of position:

    Castellanos: 12 starts a 1B; 2 at 3B
    Suarez: 1 at SS; 1 at 1B
    Winker: 1 at 1B

    Playing Suarez at SS was clearly a mistake. 1 error in 3 chances and we lost the game.

    I looked for trends such as an increase in base hits or doubles. Aside from today’s game, I really didn’t notice much difference. It’s impossible to tell without looking at where player’s hits went which is info I don’t think we get to see without a subscription. Lastly, we know 1B is the least likely place for a ball to be hit.

    My conclusion was that a strong hitter at 1B appears to make the defensive sacrifice worthwhile. The players we can play at 1B and not sacrifice defense are Votto (IL and overall below average offensively) or Dietrich (early returns are not good, but it’s a small sample size).

    • Jon Davis

      Yes that all seems to make sense. My query to you is who plays SS besides Galvis? If not Suarez. I know you wanted to keep Farmer for this reason but we are here now. I don’t believe Galvis playing everyday is the best option. Can we really judge the Suarez SS thing after 1 game? Food for thought

      • Melvin

        In my opinion buddy we should play Galvis EVERY day. He is a rock, the steadiest and best defender we have. He’s also a swtch hitter. If he got injured that’s when I would try Garcia. In a pinch we could use Suarez in the middle of a game or even Moose if we had to. In my opnion there is no reason to take up a roster spot just for a backup SS.

      • BK

        Jon, we can absolutely judge Suarez in one game because he’s playing out of position. Strato has designed the game to penalize us for playing a player out of position by assigning them the lowest possible score. We also know SS is where is the infield position where the ball is hit most frequently. We have no choice but to play Galvis everyday and every inning for the time being.

  9. BK

    I suggest, when it comes time to vote on moves, we tee them up discreetly so that we don’t end up making moves that really work counter to other moves.

    • Jon Davis

      Agreed more thought less reaction

  10. Jon Davis

    Ok as far as the roster goes here are my thoughts Castillo has officially been unlucky according to Strato so I am for sticking with him for now Miley is not going anywhere and hasn’t been horrible so keep for now so maybe a move to the bullpen later when Bauer returns? If Bauer to the IL is the decision which I would rather then we give Mahle the starts see whether bad start is small sample size plus being in the bullpen or not also bring up a RP first before Mahle is needed to start like BK said I would suggest Kuhnel. If however the decision is to hold off on Bauer to the IL I say Sims takes the starts he has been very good and I am confused why Don keeps trying to get rid of him and his sub 3 ERA he has been one of our best RP.

    Stephenson is the C plays everyday for 2 weeks minimum to see what he can do, if possible hold on to Casali and Barnhart if not then Casali goes. Lorenzen plays everyday just like Stephenson see if he can keep hitting we really need to know where he stands. Lastly Aquino is nice to have but until Lorenzen has been figured out he is excessive he wont play or Shouldnt play much if at all over Ervin Castellanos Winker or Payton so we should move him out for now.

    • Jon Davis

      I think we should just IL Bauer because holding him and playing short is much more complicated and just moves it from the 22nd to the 19th so not a big gain. I think the Aquino move was a mistake but we can correct because of the injury we can bring Senzel or Farmer back right away I think anyway. Or we could bring up 2 RPs because we are moving Lorenzen to OF. Yes I like that then one of them is sent out for Mahle in 5 days.

      So I am going to vote for the following moves:

      1. Bauer to the IL and call up Kuhnel
      2. Aquino optioned for Hendrix

      • Jon Davis

        I am still bouncing back and forth on a few things and will make my vote official later ok Tom?

    • Don

      Reason to move Sims out of relief pitching is that his WHIP has been the worst other than Lorenzen until this last week when Reed is now tied with Lorenzen for the worst WHIP. I have read ERA is a poor stat for relievers as they have to few innings.
      Sims has more walks than either Disco or Miley is 25% of the innings.
      Walks are killers for relief pitchers.

      • Jon Davis

        Ah I see more of a preemptive strike as you figure he is living dangerously out there on the mound? Ok makes sense

  11. BK

    Right now, I plan to start Lorenzen in the outfield against the Dodgers. If you believe we should use him as a pitcher instead of as an outfielder please let me know. I don’t want to play him in the outfield unless we are in general agreement that he should get several starts there until his performance dictates a different direction. In short, looking for opinions.

    • Melvin

      Frankly I don’t care how much you play Lorenzen. He wants to be and is a two way player anyway. Strato must know that he’s been in the field before and then come in to pitch. Who knows? He may even be better that way. So yes play him if you want.

      When it comes to Stephenson yes play him every day for at least a week. We have to know how he’s going to play as we can’t afford to carry three catchers for an extended period.. Worst case scenario he can’t be that much worse than what we have.

      Yes play Winker at 1B if you want at least until Votto returns.

      On the pitching side I tbink we should wait until Tom comes back with an answer from Strato as to whether we can move up our current four starters until Bauer returns since we have off days. It could make a difference if/who we call up and other moves.

    • Jon Davis

      Lorenzen should play everyday for now must figure out where his bat stands IMO

  12. BK

    Second question. Catcher has been our weakest spot offensively. I plan to start Tyler Stephenson against the Dodgers. As with Lorenzen, if you prefer I stick with a platoon of Barnhart, please let me know. As with Lorenzen, I don’t think this works if we don’t give him several starts to see how he does.

    • Jon Davis

      Same as Lorenzen, Tyler Stephenson should play everyday for the foreseeable future.

  13. BK

    Third, looking for the groups view on continuing Winker at 1B. He and Ervin are both weak in outfield defense. Both bats are in the Top 20 of all sim hitters. This is a risk, so should we continue? I think answering some of these questions will help us frame the roster moves we need to make tomorrow.

    • Jon Davis

      I think until Votto returns we should platoon at 1B with Castellanos and Winker, maybe occasional Dietrich if matchup is right but yes mostly Winker.

      • Gonzo Reds

        Fine with Winker/Casto platoon depending on pitcher.

        Think we have some really good LH OF’s so only use Lorenzen against LHP. Aki everyday, Ervin/Peyton have both earned being in there against all RHP with Winker at 1B those games.

        Against LHP Casto at 1B, Aki of course, and Lorenzen/Aquino.

    • Don

      Not sure of the strategy of playing players out of position.
      Strat-O-Matic basically told Tom today that part of the reason the Reds are losing is that the defense is the worst in the league and cannot cover the positions well enough.

      Playing more players out of position does not seem like the correct strategy.

      I understand the goal of getting the highest ranking batters in the lineup but the team is giving up to many runs to be competitive.

      For players with over 120 Plate Appearances (there are 299 players in the league with this # of plate appearances.

      Akiyama has to play every game, he is #2 in OBP (behind only Trout).
      Ervin is #7 in OBP
      Votto is #34
      Winker is #36
      Suarez is #77
      Mouse is #159
      Galvis is #183
      Castellanos is #232
      Barnhart is #247

      I spent a lot of time today looking at the lineups of the Reds vs the NL teams with better records today. I will post that down below as it is a long read.

      Akiyama, Ervin and Winker should be the starting Sim Reds Outfield and hit 1,2,3. every game until Votto returns. This does relagate Castellanos to a PH role after 209 PAs seems to be the right decision for the SIM Reds.
      Dietrich should be the backup 1st basement (cannot believe I am saying that) and playing for Votto at 1st base until Votto returns. He has the most innings at 1B in real life of anyone else on the roster and there is a need for infield defense. He should be hitting at the bottom (7,8 or 9) in the lineup. Votto should hit #2 or #3 on his return and move Winker to 6th after Votto returns.
      Mouse ( hitting 5th), Galvis (hitting 7,8, or 9) and Suarez (4th) should be the rest of the infield.
      Stephenson should start at Catcher (hitting 6th until Votto returns) until the all star break (30 games,~120 PAs) and then decide if he goes back to the minors or release Casali.

      Lorenzen should be left as a pitcher only and only play the outfield as a last resort. There is enough strong outfielders on the team that he does not need to play in the outfield and force an outfielder to play out of position which makes the overall team defense the worst in this SIM league.

  14. Jon Davis

    As far as a lineup for Tuesday I would humbly suggest this to Manager BK.

    1. Akiyama – CF
    2. Lorenzen – RF
    3. Winker – 1B
    4. Ervin – LF
    5. Moustakas – 2B
    6. Suarez – 3B
    7. Stephenson – C
    8. Desclafani – P
    9. Galvis – SS

    • Gonzo Reds

      Peyton not Lorenzen as we are facing RHP Buehler Buehler Buehler.

      • Jon Davis

        Yes thought of that but Buehler has even splits that actually lean a bit towards the reverse. Plus I said Stephenson and Lorenzen play everyday until we know what we have in them. I can’t go against that in the first game.

    • BK

      Jon this is how I’m leaning … perhaps swap Ervin and the Zen Master to get Magic’s .412 OBP higher in the batting order. That’s the right players and I think your right about putting Lorenzen in RF and Akiyama in CF.

      • Melvin

        I’m not disagreeing with you guys about Akiyama being such a good defender. Maybe the stats say so. I don’t know and I’ve never seen him play. I can tell you this. I have seen Lorenzen play and he is Gold Glove caliber. The way he tracks the ball, his speed, his arm, his ability to take charge and make good decisions, the way he throws to the correct base and hits cut off men, all these things he does very very well. He does make spectacular plays from time to time too. If you tell me Akiyama is better I’ll take your word for it but he will have to be awesome to be better than or even as good as Lorenzen.

  15. Tom Mitsoff

    Fantastic discussion! Before I turn in tonight, I’m going to try to summarize the key points we need to decide in separate posts directly below. For continuity, I’ll ask each of you to post your opinion on each directly below each post as a direct reply. This will help to make sure your vote/opinion is correctly registered.

    • Jon Davis

      Ok Tom to help simplify here is my official votes.

      1. Bauer does not go on the IL the upcoming rotation goes like this
      Vs. LAD – Disco-Miley-Castillo
      Vs. MIL – Gray-Sims-Disco
      Off Day
      Vs. SDP – Miley-Castillo-Gray
      Vs. STL – Disco-Bauer-Miley

      2. Aquino optioned and Kuhnel recalled
      We need RP arm in a close race I believe Payton is more valuable than Aquino.

      • Melvin

        Good job Jon. You know I’m just playin with ya. 🙂

      • Jon Davis

        Yes I know but you apparently posted this before I could pretend to upset as documented below.

  16. Melvin

    Thats probably a good idea. I’m sure some times you can’t tell if we’re voting or just commenting. I know some are worse than others. Don’t want to mention any names because I don’t want to embarrass Jon Davis……ooops. 🙂

    • Jon Davis

      Oh Melvin thems be fighting words come on put up your dukes lets get down to it Hit me with your best shot fire away. I think I have been listening to too much 80s music. And you thought I didn’t vote for your lineup before? For the record I am joking and you are right I am all over the place just writing everything I am thinking. But to be fair I gave you all the option and Tom is the only one who responded and told me to let all my Jon-ness fly free so?

      • Melvin

        Go for it. Just more amo for me though. Hahaha

      • Melvin

        I’m sure you have the “Eye of the Tiger” too. LOL

  17. Redsfan4life

    I am for Lorenzen playing CF everyday. He is hitting and will help OF defense. But to do that we need to call up a reliever and I.L. Bauer.
    I am for Winker/Castellanos platoon at 1b till Votto returns.
    I am for Stephenson to play everyday for 2 weeks at least.
    I am for a Payton/Ervin Platoon at one corner spot till Votto returns and Winker goes back to OF.
    Ervin is bad OFer Payton playing more than Ervin should upgrade OF defense.
    We need to get the Defense fixed. Problem is most of our better hitters are bad defenders. Just my 2 cents.

  18. Redsfan4life

    I am also for Aquino going down for a reliever. We have enough OFers.

  19. Don

    I looked through all the starting lineups for the Sim Reds 1st 66 games.

    Player – Games Started – Pinch Hitting
    Suarez – 64 – 2
    Galvis – 64 – 0
    Mouse – 55 – 9
    Votto – 48 – 8
    Castellanos – 46 – 10
    Winker – 40 – 17
    Akiyama – 40 – 6
    Barnhart – 43 – 0
    Ervin – 29 – 25
    Casali – 23 – 8
    Payton – 18 – 1
    Lorenzen – 10 – 1
    Aquino – 7 – 6
    Dietrich – 3 – 7

    No longer on active roster
    Senzel – 22 – 32
    VanMeter – 13 – 19
    Farmer – 9 – 13
    Jankowski – 2 – 0

    I find it interesting that Barnhart has never pinch hit and Payton has only one PA as a pinch hitter.

    Batting Postion, Player (Games Started)
    1-Akiyama(33)Payton(11)Senzel(10)Lorenzen(4)VanMeter&Votto(3)Winker(2)
    2-Winker(18)Votto&Ervin(14)Payton(6)Senzel(5)Suarez(3)Akiyama(2)Galvis,Moose,Castellanos&Lorenzen(1)
    3-Suarez(20)Castellanos(15)Winker(9)Ervin(8)Votto(7)Akiyama(3)Votto(2)Barnhart&Lorenzen(1)
    4-Suarez(30)Mouse(13)Castellanos(8)Galvis(4)Ervin(3)Winker,Votto&Lorenzen(2)Aqunio&VanMeter(1)
    5-Mouse(15)Castellanos(13)Suarez&Votto(7)Barhnart(6)Galvis(5)Winker&Aquino(3)Ervin&Farmer(2)Senzel,Payton,Dietrich(1)
    6-Mouse(19)Votto(8)Castellanos&VanMeter(6)Winker(5)Farmer(4)Galvis,Barnhart,Ervin,Senzel,Casali&Aquino(2),Lorenzen&Dietrich(1)
    7-Galvis(20)Barnhart(13)Casali(12)Votto(6)Mouse&Castellanos(3)Suarez&Farmer(2)Winker,VanMeter,Lorenzen,Aquino,Dietrich(1)
    8-Pitcher(20)Barnhart(19)Galvis(11)Casali(9)Mouse(2)Votto,Senzel,VanMeter,Farmer(1)
    9-Pitcher(37)Galvis(19)Senzel(3)Akiyama,Barnhart,Jankowski(2)VanMeter(1)

    I did notice looking that all the box scores,I only remember one game(of the 14) that Galvis had a hit when not batting 7,8 or 9.
    Galvis seems to get hits in the bottom 1/3rd of the lineup but not when in the 1st 6 spots

    I also looked at the Plate Appearances by player for the 9 NL teams with better records than the Sim Reds.
    Based on what I can find about avg PA/game,a player whom starts everyday will average >3.8 ABs/game (avg ABs/game for 9th place hitter) A leadoff avg is 4.65 PA/game

    So I counted
    1) the number of players with more than 3.9 PAs/game for each of the teams.
    2) The number of players with >2 and less than 3.9
    4) Number of players with >1 and less than 2
    3) The number of players with less than 1 PAs/game

    Team, PA>3.8, 3to3.8, 2to3, 1to2, 3.8 PA/game is IL Trips

    Akiyama on 10 Day IL twice (assuming he was started 14 at leadoff of the I think 18 games missed) to get to 3.8 PAs/game
    Votto once on IL (assuming he had 7 starts in the 9 he is missing) to reach 3.8 PA/game
    Castellanos once (he would need 10 more starts and I think he only missed 9 games while on IL) to reach 3.8PA

    Mouse is just below the 3.8 threshold, he would have needed to start 3 more games of the first 66.

    Noone else is closer than 14 more games started to average 3.8 PAs per game.

    My conclusion is that we are swapping starters more than the teams with better records in the NL but not as much of a difference as I expected.

    Hopefully others will enjoy the number crunching.

    • Don

      cut and paste of the other team stats on how many PAs for other teams did not occur correctly in the last post

      1) the number of players with more than 3.8 PAs/game for each of the teams.
      2) The number of players with >3 and less than 3.8
      3) Number of players with >2 and 1 and less than 2
      3) The number of players with less than 1 PAs/game

      Team, PA>3.8,3to3.8,2to3,1to2,<1

      Dodgers = 3,2,4,4,3
      Nationals = 5,0,5,2,2
      Cards = 3,3,3,4,3
      Padres = 2,4,2,5,3
      Cubs = 3,3,2,4,2
      Braves = 5,1,2,4,3
      Brewers = 3,3,4,3,2
      Rockies = 4,2,1,6,2
      DBacks = 5,2,1,4,2
      Reds = 2,3,5,3,5

      My conclusion is that we are swapping starters more than the teams with better records in the NL but not as much of a difference as I expected.

      Hopefully others will enjoy the number crunching.

      • Don

        cut and paste from notepad is dropping lines. Hopefully you can figure out the meaning of what I posted.

      • BK

        Wow Don, very impressive stuff; thank you!

      • Melvin

        Wow. That’s a lot of work Don. Very informative. Thanks.

    • BK

      Don, very interesting stuff. Galvis’ actual splits also show he does better at the bottom of the lineup. I like him in the 9 hole. He’s fast enough to steal a base (if basestealing was still in vogue) so there’s little benefit hoping to have the pitcher sacrifice him over. It also gives us a chance to put our speedier guys together which gives in game options for hit and runs, SBs, etc.

      Very much enjoyed the whole read.

  20. Tom Mitsoff

    Question #1: Please reply to this post directly with your vote. (If you voted above, please repeat here)

    Trevor Bauer to 15-day disabled list: Yes or no?

    If he is disabled, we will be able to recall someone, but Bauer will miss at least two and maybe three starts.

    If he is not disabled, there will be two dates in the next two weeks that we will need to name an “opener” starting pitcher. We are permitted to adjust the rotation as long as the pitcher starting on any given day has four days rest. If this is the choice, that day’s manager will choose the “opener.”

    • BK

      Yes, place Bauer on the IL. 12 days is along time to play short.

    • Melvin

      As I understand it then we can adjust the rotation even if we disable him as long as we meet those requirements correct? If that’s the case then yes disable him.

    • Jon Davis

      I vote Bauer does not go on the DL. If he is out 10 games then we can adjust so he only misses 1 start. If it’s anyone other than a starter then that is too long to play a man down but with a starter the impact is negligible. The upcoming rotation would go like this

      Vs. LAD – Disco-Miley-Castillo
      Vs. MIL – Gray-Sims-Disco
      Off Day
      Vs. SDP – Miley-Castillo-Gray
      Vs. STL – Disco-Bauer-Miley

      • Gonzo Reds

        DL for Bauer

        I agree with going with 4 starters if possible and still think I’d like to see Santillian get a spot start if possible rather than Mahle that we really already know what we’d get from him.

      • Don

        Gonzo,
        is your thought to bring up Santillan for Bauer and give him the 2 starts that Bauer would miss?

        That makes sense to me instead of bringing up a reliever.

    • Don

      I am a no on Bauer to the DL and use the pitching that Jon outlines.

  21. Tom Mitsoff

    Question #2: Please reply to this post directly with your vote. (If you voted above, please repeat here)

    If you voted to put Bauer on the 15-day injured list, who do you want to recall?

    • BK

      Nate Jones. 5 straight years of sub-4 ERA out of the bullpen. His career has been undermined by injury not performance. He’s healthy and should provide a boost.

      • Melvin

        Nate Jones. I’m gonna go along with BK on this one….don’t let it go to your head. 🙂

      • Don

        Bk,
        I would like to understand your logic for bring up a relief pitcher for a starter?
        Also what are the plans for the rotation for the 15 days Bauer would be on the IL? He misses two starts.
        6-8 (off day) – Bauer goes on 15 days IL on 6-9, off the 24th.
        6-9to11 Vs. LAD – Disco-Miley-Castillo
        6-12to-14@ MIL – Gray-?????-Disco
        6-15 Off Day
        6-16to18 @ SDP – Miley-Castillo-Gray
        6-19to6-21@ STL – ?????-Disco-Miley
        6-22 Off Day
        6-23-25 vs Cubs – Castillo,Gray,Bauer

        Bauer is the only starter whom I have ever heard saying that he is for a 4 man rotation so the game vs the Brewers on the 13th would need to be a bullpen day no matter what is done with Bauer. Starting Disco and Miley in Game 2 and 3 on short rest vs Brewers does not appeal to me.
        If Bauer on IL:
        For the 2nd missed start during the Cards series these are the options I can envision:
        1) Disco and Miley pitch game 1 and 2 (normal rest). Castillo starts game 3 on short rest and then Gray is on regular rest for Game 1 vs Cubs and Bauer can pitch Game 2 vs Cubs(1st day off IL).
        2) Disco and Miley pitch game 1 and 2 (normal rest). Bullpen day for game 3.

        If Bauer is not on IL:
        Bullpen Day vs Brewers Game 2.
        Disco pitches game 1 vs cards (normal rest)
        Bauer Pitches game 2 vs cards
        Miley pitches game 3 vs Cards (6 days rest)

        My thinking is that I would rather have one bullpen day vs the Brewers and then Bauer vs Cards instead of either Castillo on short rest or a 2nd Bullpen Day.

        Now if the Proposal was to bring up Mahle to make 2 starts vs Brewers and Cards instead of a 9th reliever that would require some more thinking.

      • BK

        @Don … my idea is to bring up a reliever until we need the starter and then execute a second move. I’m suggesting bringing up Jones longer term and Kuhnel for about 4 games and then replace him with a starter. I’m for optimizing the roster as much as possible. Shuttling relievers is a way to do that.

      • Don

        BK, Do not know why there is a need for another reliever as there are 6 games, off day, 6 games, off day.

        The team just came through a 2nd 15 game, 15 day stretch with a 5 man rotation, 7 bullpen plus Lorenzen. I only remember one time (Garrett) in those 14 days the same relievers playing 2 days in a row.

        The roster is currently short 1 starting pitcher, 1 to 2 infielders and has an over abundance of outfields especially with Lorenzen playing a lot.

        If one wants to optimize the roster game for a few day, bring up an infielder that can play 1st base well and hit OK and put Bauer on the IL as that is what the team needs for the next 4 games, not another reliever coming off an off day.

    • Jon Davis

      I know I voted not to put him on the DL but if it goes the other way I would choose Kuhnel to be brought up. I like Nate Jones who BK suggested but he is not on the 40 man and would require losing someone. Right?

    • Gonzo Reds

      Ok, with Nate Jones but want to ship him or someone else back out for Santillian to get a spot start when we need a 5th starter.

      • BK

        Gonzo … I absolutely get the thought on passing on Mahle. However, Santillan regressed pretty badly last year in his second year at AA. If we want to give someone a couple of starts I suggest either:

        – Jose DeLeon. Former top prospect that had a decent year in AAA last year. He’s been fighting injuries, but had a 3.51 ERA and struck out 71 in 51.1 innings. He did well in his limited time with Tampa as well.
        – Tejay Antone. His stats were mediocre last year but he was hitting the upper 90s in spring training this year with was about +5 on his fastball. In the non-sim world, he’s poised for a breakout.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      I just checked to see if Nate Jones is permissible since he is not on the 40-man roster, and they said yes, FYI.

      • Melvin

        Tom. Does that mean we don’t have to worry about releasing someone in the sim world if we bring up a player who’s not on the 40 man roster? For example would we have to release Dietrich or someone else to bring up Jose Garcia? Also, if we were to release Dietrich it is possible that he would not be picked up and we could retain him? Sorry if you’re busy you can just answer this at your own convenience of course. Thanks.

  22. Tom Mitsoff

    Anything I have missed? Any other proposed roster moves? Please restate them here.

    • BK

      Aquino down; Kuhnel up. Kuhnel looked good in limited ML action last year and was dominant at AAA. It will be a short trip, as we’ll need a starter in 4 games when Bauer’s turn comes up in the rotation.

      As for Aquino, we simply don’t need 7 outfielders on the roster. Lorenzen’s elite performance thus far warrants more playing time. Aquino is well below league average OPS, has a 37.5% K rate (very poor), lacks versatility and has no place to play. As best we can, we need to make every roster spot count.

      • Melvin

        I like having Aquino (has played other outfield spots) and Dietrich up not to play them but for strong pinch hitting and bench options. However that might not he feasible at the moment with three catchers. Aquino down. Kuhnel up….You’re getting your cake and eating it too with me tonight BK. Would like to bring Aquino back when get down to two catchers.

      • Jon Davis

        Ah ok BK I see why you were saying Nate Jones for Bauer. If we are going with Aquino down for Kuhnel first then I would go with Hendrix as the second RP since he is already on the 40 man roster.

      • Gonzo Reds

        Prefer to leave Aquino up for now, and he’s probably running short on options and do the following lineups till Votto back:

        “Think we have some really good LH OF’s so only use Lorenzen against LHP. Aki everyday, Ervin/Peyton have both earned being in there against all RHP with Winker at 1B those games.

        Against LHP Casto at 1B, Aki of course, and Lorenzen/Aquino.”

        So we really only have 6 OF’s since one is playing 1B everyday. When Votto returns we can re-address who to send down for him, yes an OF but whether Aquino or Peyton etc we’ll see at that point.

      • BK

        @Gonzo … we’ve already used Aquino’s option for this year. So he can go back and forth to/from AAA as often as needed. I don’t know if that changes your perspective, but we are in no danger of having to expose Aquino by demoting him.

        The problem with platooning the players you mentioned is that some of them don’t have splits to support a platoon. Aquino shows virtually no difference between hitting RHP or LHP. Likewise, Payton was mostly even at AAA, too. This contrast sharply with the real life track records of Ervin and Winker.

        As for Lorenzen, his bat has been elite. Elite as in just as productive as players like sim Akiyama, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts. Lorenzen is approaching 50 PAs … we’re just beginning to move outside of small sample size territory. If he continues at an elite rate, he must play everyday in the OF. If he comes back to earth, we should put him back in the pen as his primary position and use him in the outfield as a backup (that is, go back to the original plan). If we take that latter course, Aquino starts to make sense again. Right now, he simply doesn’t add anything to the team that’s not already there in abundance.

        We have five OF performing at a high level. It’s pretty amazing that Winker and Payton, both hitting in the top 20% are being outperformed. We’re stuck with Castellanos and his below average hitting/defense.

      • Jon Davis

        Hey BK trying to get a clearer picture of what you are thinking. I believe what you are suggesting is at this moment sending Bauer to DL and Aquino down and bringing up 2 RPs yes? The order for you seems to be Kuhnel then Jones then Hendrix? Then you plan to send out one of those RP for Mahle to start in Bauer’s place. Do I have that right?

      • BK

        Jon, that’s correct. Mahle is who I am leaning toward … open to other suggestions.

  23. Don

    Based on what Tom posted about Castillo and the defense being tied for last.

    I have reviewed and tabulated every PA against Castillo for this last 8 of his 14 starts.

    He is 2-3 with 3 No Decisions in these 8 games.
    Total Innings pitched = 42 (or 126 outs)
    The breakdown of those 126 are:
    40 Strike Outs
    60 Ground Ball Outs
    11 Infield Put Outs (7 pop up & 4 line drives)
    15 Outfield Put Outs

    Errors:
    Suarez had one infielder error to allow someone to reach 1st
    Suarez has one throwing (assumed as the play is single+E5)
    Ervin (RF) had one outfielder error to allow the hitter to reach 2nd
    Payton also had a throwing error to home, on a Sac Fly that allowed a running to go 1st to 3rd

    During those 126 outs, 73 players have reached base and Reds gave up 34 runs total runs

    These are how 73 players got on base
    24 Singles
    17 Doubles
    1 Triple
    7 Home Runs
    21 Walks
    1 HBP
    2 Errors

    Batted balls in play = 137 (86 outs + 51 on base (2 errors + 49 hits))
    So his BABIP = 49/137 = 0.357 (his career BABIP is 0.264 which would be 36 hits for 137 ABs)

    Here is where assumptions start in trying to figure out if singles and doubles are grounders, line drives or fly balls

    Since we know the outs as flyball, ground ball, line out and I would think that it is safe to assume the 1 triple and 7 HRs are Flyballs(8 total)

    his is what we know.
    60 ground ball outs + 1 GB Error = 61
    15 Fly Outs + 8 hits + 1 FB Error = 24
    4 INF line drive outs
    7 INF pop up

    Total known = 96 of the 137 batted balls are known ground or fly
    This leave the 24 singles and 17 doubles (41 total as unknown)

    For his career rate his batted ball rate: Line Drive = 18%, GB% is 52%, FB = 29%
    Using these career average for these 137 Balls in play one would expect
    25 line drives (only know of 4), 21 unknown
    72 ground balls (know of 61), 11 unknown
    40 flyouts (know of 31), 9 unknown

    7 HRs with 40 flyouts matches Castillos career HR/FB rate of 18% so he is not giving up HRs at a rate different from his career numbers

    To meet career BABIP, 36 hits should have been given up, 49 were given up (the 8 for the triple and 7 HRs are assumed solid hits).

    For the 41 singles and doubles the 21 unknown line drives are most likely solid hits.

    So this would account for 29 of the 36 hits vs Castillo to meet his Career BABIP.

    The defense should have gotten outs on 13 of the remain 20 singles and doubles which rolled through the infield (11) or pop-ups (9) that dropped.

    My conclusion would be that the limited range of the infielders which is allowing to many infield rollers and soft flares for hits is where the defense is lacking instead of outfielders not having the range.

    My prescription for an improved Sim Reds team is that better infield defense is needed and putting more outfields in the infield is probably the wrong managerial move.

    Improved defense may also get starters to be in the game longer so there is less stress on the bullpen to cover 4 innings every game.

    As a side note: The one game where Castillo went 8 innings, Suarez, Galvis, Mouse, Votto was the starting infield and only 4 singles were given up that day.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Wow, Don! That is some indepth work! I frankly have no idea who would be considered the sim Reds’ best defensive first baseman with Votto out. But your data analysis indicates validity to Strat-O-Matic’s contention that Castillo’s bad numbers are a combination of bad luck and bad defense.

      • Don

        I would suspect that the other pitchers are having an impact for the same poor defensive metrics as well as most have higher WHIP (some virtually the same) than their real life stats

        for 1st base,

        Barnhart had 11 games with 6 starts in 2018, 3 games, 0 starts in 2019 with a 987 fielding %
        Casali had 6 games, 3 starts in 2018, 4 games 0 starts in 2019 with a 1.000 fielding %
        Dietrich had 13 games, 9 starts with a .985 fielding % in 2019.
        Blandino had 1 game in 2018, 3 games with 1 start in 2019, 1.000 fielding %
        JVM has 9 games, 4 starts in 2019 with a .985 fielding %

        I am missing Brian O’Grady as he would have been ideal to bring up while Votto is on the IL.

        Blandino would probably be the best defender for 1st base on the 40 man with his range of being a middle infielder would probably have good fielding metrics.

  24. Tom Mitsoff

    Reminder to everyone checking in late Monday afternoon:

    If you care to vote on the roster moves being proposed immediately above, please do so before too late in the evening. Currently the numbers are favoring putting Bauer on the DL and bringing up reliever Nate Jones to replace him.

    BK’s proposal to send down Aquino and bring up Kuhnel currently has two yes votes (including his) and one no vote. For moves like this that are not tied to injuries, we need at least three yes votes to ensure that the move has some broad support among our participants here.

    • RedsEuphoria

      I vote in favor of Aquino getting called down and Kuhnel getting called up, and the reasons why are a). Aquino’s average right now is atrocious, and b). he is being called on more often than our better hitters thus far to pinch hit, so this could allow those who are performing well to be chosen more as pinch hitters, especially since we would be bringing up a reliever.

    • Jon Davis

      Tom I feel like somethings are getting lost. So I am going to recap my thoughts here.

      As far as going down/being DL’d I am voting for Yes to Aquino and No on Bauer.

      As far as who to callup I am voting for Kuhnel first then Hendrix if we are calling up a second guy.

      I feel like these are 2 separate things and should settle one before addressing the other.

    • Don

      Aquino down, Blandio up, just until Votto is back then put Blandio down.

  25. Melvin

    If both of these moves are made I guess that means we will have an “extra” pitcher and an “extra” catcher so when Votto comes back the player being sent down will probably come from one of those two positions. Anyone can correct me if I’m wrong in saying that. If we decide we are ready to do both then maybe we can bring back Aquino to help strengthen our bench and make us that much stronger. Aquino is a good defensive player too in my opinion with good tracking, speed, and arm strength. However, as much as I like having Aquino on the active roster, if we decide that our infield defense is lacking so much, which very well may be the case, then maybe we should bring up a good defensive infielder to use at 2B on the days that we do want to have our strongest defense (especially up the middle) or late game replacement. If that’s the case gentlemen, I propose we bring up Jose Garcia. He has played SS and 2B in the minors so his card should show that. We all know what a good Spring Training he was having and I’m sure we all like him to some degree. It has been said by some who’ve watched him play that he was clearly the best player on the field. Some here would like to have a backup SS. Although I don’t think it’s a good idea to use a roster spot just for that, he would fill that “whole” as well. If we decide we don’t need an “extra” pitcher right now then we can change the vote (or add another one) to instead of sending down Aquino for a pitcher bring up Garcia. I will leave that up for discussion on here. I will say the more I think about it the more I like it.

    • BK

      Melvin … I agree to a point. The problem we have is that there is no minor league season ongoing so we have no idea what kind of cards these guys are going to get. I suggest we see how Stephenson does. Like Garcia he was on a very positive trajectory. 2019 was his best year in the minors, he shined in the Fall and looked good in Spring Training. He should give us some insight as to whether we’ve pulled a guy up from AA before he was MLB ready, or if the card accounts for continued development. Lodolo is another one … how do you build a good card on a guy w/no experience above Low A ball? So, I suggest we experiment with Stephenson first. If it goes well, Garcia may be the right guy to try for another boost to the team.

      • Melvin

        Yeah I know but his defense should help us regardless right away. It seems like that’s the point of emphasis lately. Remember, the cards that strato made up on players with no major league experience have worked out really well for us so far in Akiyama and Payton. Everyone likes Garcia too which would add a level of excitement. Of course that’s always a good thing. He really couldn’t hurt us. If he was so bad we could just send him down. On the other hand he could turn out to be a real gem. As a side note in making out cards, I wander how Strato would have made out a card for Mike Leake who never played in the minors.

      • BK

        That’s true … we need to take a look at who is actually hurting us on defense. Per baseballreference.com in 2019 based on runs saved per 1200 innings (positive #s are better):

        Votto: +11
        Moustakas: exactly neutral (at 1B, 2B and 3B)
        Galvis: +29
        Suarez: -4
        Winker: -6 overall (+2 in LF, -36 in CF, -12 in RF)
        Lorenzen: +16 in CF (neutral in RF)
        Ervin: +11 in LF (+22 in CF, but his career #s don’t support this)
        Aquino: +7 in RF
        Castellanos: -12 in RF
        Senzel: -2 in CF

        We have no data on Akiyama or Payton, but the scouting reports had both as good on the corners, perhaps slightly below average in CF.

        Not playing Castellanos and Winker in the OF is the best way to help our defense.

    • RedsEuphoria

      Now there’s an idea! What if we called up Christian Colon? His career fielding percentage at 2B is 1.000 in 45 CG played at MLB level, and 70 total games played. At SS he sports a .960 career fielding percentage at MLB level in 18 CG/38 Games played at Major League level. He is also not that bad of a hitter: career .256 BA/.321 OBP (which beats Galvis in OBP). He hit .300 for us last year at AAA in 136 games with 10 HR, and hit .500 in a brief appearance at the major league level. 3B is another place he has experience at, so he can potential cover 2B, SS or 3B giving us more flexibility in the event we call him up!

      • RedsEuphoria

        More to that, here is his career minor-league fielding percentage at various positions.

        1B 1.000 in 6 G/2 GS
        2B .977 in 248 G/233 GS
        3B .962 in 168 G/161 GS
        SS .957 in 376 G/371 GS (plus 29 GS/35 G in a foreign league where he had a .981 fielding PCT there, so he is primarily a SS).
        LF 1.000 (10 G/9 GS)

        Career Percentages at All Levels (MLB + Foreign leagues + Minor leagues)
        1B 1.000 (8 GP/3 GS)
        2B .979 (396 G/360 GS)
        3B .959 (210 G/193 GS)
        SS .959 (438 G/414 GS)
        LF 1.000 (15 G/11 GS)

        This guy literally can play any position but catcher, giving us a lot of flexibility.

      • Melvin

        That’s an idea too that I wouldn’t be opposed to. My first choice would be Garcia for the potential and the excitement factor. We could vote of course.

      • Don

        Colon has never played an inning at 1st base in his 5 partial major league seasons. He has played 2B,SS,3B, next first. So I would not see him be any better defensively that putting one of the outfielders at 1B like we have been doing.

      • BK

        Moustakas has limited experience at 1B (average+ defensive rating per baseballreference.com). His limited experience at 2B also rates right at average+). That is just on the positive side of average.

  26. Don

    To bring up a player not on the 40 man or even someone from the 40 man would require someone to be released or sent to Minor which Strat-O-Matic agrees is a move which the Reds would make in real life based on what occurred with Miley.

    I doubt Strat-O-Matic would let us release anyone but Deitrich since we added him to the roster and they did not think he would make the 26 man roster to start.

    The players to option are Tyler Stephenson, Akiyama, Lorenzen, Payton, Winker, Aquino, Bowman, Iglesias.

    My assumption would be that Payton, Aquino, Stephenson or Bowman are the only real options to demote as the Reds would never demote Akiyama, Lorenzen, Winker or Iglesias.

    The current active roster of 6 outfielders (Lorenzen does not count), 4 infielders, 3 catchers is not a really good balance Roster.

    If the goal is to play Lorenzen everyday, Akiyama has to play everyday as well as he is the 2nd best OBP in all of the SIM and the best and most consistent offensive player the Reds have bar none. That means Ervin, Winker and Castellanos are playing the last OF spot.

    Aquino and Payton to me are the obvious one’s to put in the minor’s as they should never start.

  27. Don

    Only seen one lineup for Tuesday game. I am assuming that BK will put one up in the next couple of hours. If not here is mine.

    Akiyama – CF
    Winker – LF
    Suarez – 3B
    Mouse – 2B
    Castellanos – RF
    Stephenson – C
    Galvis – SS
    Dietrich – 1B
    Desclafani – P

  28. Tom Mitsoff

    Gentlemen, at 9:17 p.m. Eastern time, this is what I have regarding transactions:

    Bauer to DL 3 yes, 2 no
    Nate Jones up to replace him

    Aquino down 5 yes 1 no, Joel Kuhnel (4 votes) up to replace him

    I don’t see a lineup yet from BK. I’ll be turning in in about an hour, which is when I will send lineup and player moves to Strat-O-Matic.

    • Jon Davis

      Ok who is being Designated for Assignment so that we can add Nate Jones to the 40 man roster? I would guess the choice is either OF Scott Schebler or RHP Justin Shafer. I am thinking I would go with Schebler.

      • BK

        They haven’t held us to the 40-man roster thus far … we added Dietrich and subtracted no one as I recall.

      • Jon Davis

        BK you make a great point I guess then just in case they ask Tom he could already have an answer ready. But yeah if they don’t ask then great.

    • Jon Davis

      On a semi separate note I think given how this went we should start considering what we will do on the 13th. I believe that both Votto comes off the DL and Bauers spot happen on that day.

  29. BK

    Tomorrow’s lineup vs. the Dodgers:

    CF – Akiyama (.434 OBP; 1.091 OPS)
    LF – Ervin (.412 OBP, .898 OPS)
    RF – Lorenzen (.396 OBP, 1.015 OPS)
    1B – Winker (.374 OBP, .846 OPS)
    3B – Suarez (.355 OBP, .889 OPS)
    2B – Moustakas (.326 OBP, .796 OPS)
    C – Tyler Stephenson (sim Major League debut … make us look smart)
    P – DeSclafani
    SS – Galvis (.317 OBP, .729 OPS)

    Go Reds!

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Got it, BK. Big challenge against the Dodgers!

      • BK

        If not already submitted, let’s swap Akiyama into RF and Lorenzen into CF. Based on the defensive research just posted.

  30. BK

    This may be the most discussed simulated game ever … I think we’d all like to see a real game soon so we can share with DB and DW all we’ve learned doing their jobs!

  31. Melvin

    Okay guys. I’ve been thinking a lot as several of you obviously have too. This is good for us, good for Tom, and good for Doug too so it’s a win for everyone. 🙂 The emphasis the past few days has been on defense. It’s been proven quite clearly by those who have been good enough to do the research for us that our defense hasn’t been what it should be. In the beginning of the season we weren’t scoring enough runs. Little by little we have since done a much better job of figuring out what Strato wants rather than what we think things should be and we’ve done a whole lot better. Now we have information telling us that maybe our pitching is not all to blame but rather we are too and making it hard on our pitching in our lineup placements. You might remember, and probably do, that I’ve been a big proponent of having both Aquino and Dietrich on the roster not as every day players but as strong bench and pinch hitting options. However, as things have progressed, that situation has changed. We now have six pretty good hitting outfielders (Tom found a good one for us in Payton). Akiyama, Payton and Winker hit from the left side while Lorenzen, Ervin, and Castellanos hit from the right side. That’s pretty good balance. In any game two, maybe three if Winker/Castellanos is not at 1B are available for pinch hitting. That in itself makes a pretty good hitting bench. By the way when Votto does return, if we’er really serous about having the proper balance of offense and defense, then Winker and Castellanos should be used mostly only in pinch hitting roles. Quite frankly they are pretty bad in that area and we have enough good hitting outfielders who can play defense too, some really well. We’ve tried playing Dietrich. Although he’s not been terrible he just doesn’t add much to our team in the way of offense or defense. Before we brought him up we didn’t know we had access to our younger stars. Now that we do I’m proposing that we seriously consider bringing up jose Garcia for Dietrich. It may mean that we could lose Dietrich if another team picks him up. Well since he’s really doing us more harm than good at the moment it’s time we take the chance. It’s been pointed out that one of several ways that he’s a liability is that Strato is using him for pinch hitting instead of one of our good hitting outfielders who aren’t playing that day. Why should we bring up Garcia and not someone else you might ask? Well of course there’s room for debate as there’s never any guarantee about anything we’er doing. LOL However he is one of, if not THE BEST of our young budding possible superstars. As I stated earlier that it’s been said by people who have watched him play that he was clearly the best player on the field. He also has played 2B as well as SS which is very important as we do have a really good defensive SS but not so at 2B. He’s clearly one of the fan favorites especially after his spring training this year. There are a variety of ways he could help us. He could of course play 2B for Moose at times, or he could come in as a late game replacement. He would be the backup SS that some on here have wanted. I checked today on Galvis and he has played 3B before for the Phillies several games in two different years. If we have a game where we feel like Suarez is too much of a defensive liability we could use Galvis at third (giving us much better defense there I’m sure) and use Garcia at SS. Another is with the situation we have now. If we feel that the Winker/Castellanos 1B platoon is not good for us because of that fact they have no major league experience there then we could slide over Moustakas until Votto returns and slot Garcia at 2B. Moose has played there before with at least average defense as some have pointed out. Every spot is important defensively but every baseball person knows that your “up the middle” defense is the most important even with the shifts that are used these days which Strato doesn’t do. Our “up the middle defense” could be Lorenzen CF, Stephenson C, Galvis SS, and Garcia 2B. We would have a veteran team with our young budding stars mixed in with both Stephenson and Garcia. If BK keeps on winning, and he’d BETTER! (just playin) a BK lineup could look like this until Votto returns.

    Akiyama RF
    Lorenzen CF
    Ervin LF
    Suarez 3B
    Moustakas 1B
    Stephenson C
    Galvis SS
    Catillo P
    Garcia 2B

    Let’s face it guys. We really don’t have that much time to lose. Even if we somehow play this whole sim season through we’er almost halfway there. If real baseball starts our sim season may not have long at all. Let’s add a level of excitement to it by seeing what we have. Worst case scenario our young guys aren’t ready yet and we send them down for more seasoning.

  32. Melvin

    Now after that looong post, I’m officially proposing, with Tom’s approval, that we vote tomorrow on this.

    Dietrich down – Jose Garcia up

  33. Tom Mitsoff

    Guys, I got this email early Tuesday morning from Strat-O-Matic:

    ——-

    They can’t send down a hitter for a pitcher. New MLB rule is max 13 pitchers. Lorenzen still counts as a pitcher until he has 20 games with 3 at bats as a hitter (Basically starts, i believe he has 11)

    ——-

    So the Aquino for Kuhnel move did not go through for today’s game against LA.

    • Gonzo Reds

      Not complaining. I voted against the move. 😉

    • BK

      Thanks Tom … You have Sim MLB Executive of the Year locked up!