Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Reds 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 0
Pirates 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 X 5 10 0

Jarrod Dyson’s two-out, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning off Michael Lorenzen propelled the Pittsburgh Pirates (5-4) to a victory over the Cincinnati Reds (3-6) in the rubber game of a three-game series at PNC Park.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


The simulated Reds scored the first three runs of the game, but could not score thereafter. In the second inning, the Reds loaded the bases with one out, and Tucker Barnhart’s groundout drove in the first run. In the third inning, Mike Moustakas’ second home run of the simulated season scored Eugenio Suarez for a 3-0 Reds lead.

But the Pirates rallied back and tied it in the bottom of the fourth on Kevin Newman’s RBI single against starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani.

Amir Garrett struck out league-leading hitter Colin Moran with the bases loaded in the bottom of the seventh to snuff out a Pittsburgh rally, but the Dyson home run the following inning was the game-winner.

Nick Senzel was the only Reds batter with more than one hit. This was the third consecutive three-game series to start the season in which the Reds split the first two games and then lost the rubber match.

The Reds loss combined with a Cubs win sent Cincinnati four games behind Chicago, still in the NL Central basement.

Here is the box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

A-Pinch Hit For Desclafani In 7th Inning
C-Subbed Defensively (CF) For Garrett In 8th Inning

B-Pinch Hit For Rodriguez In 7th Inning
D-Subbed Defensively (RF) For Osuna In 9th Inning

Standings following the April 5 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cubs 7 2 .778 0
Cardinals 5 4 .556 2
Pirates 5 4 .556 2
Brewers 4 5 .444 3
Reds 3 6 .333 4

The 2020 schedule as currently constituted has the Reds returning to Great American Ball Park for a two-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, as the start of a nine-game homestand. Luis Castillo will pitch for Cincinnati, and righthander Brandon Woodruff will ascend the hill for the Brew Crew.

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below.

Strat-O-Matic simulation league leaders

On Sundays, we present you a snapshot of how the rest of the league is unfolding. The following numbers are all through games of Saturday, April 4.

NL East WON LOST PCT GB
Nationals 5 3 .625 0
Marlins 5 4 .556 0.5
Phillies 4 5 .444 1.5
Braves 3 6 .333 2.5
Mets 2 6 .250 3
NL West WON LOST PCT GB
Padres 7 2 .778 0
Dodgers 5 3 .625 1.5
Rockies 4 5 .444 3
D-backs 4 5 .444 3
Giants 2 6 .250 4.5
AL East WON LOST PCT GB
Red Sox 7 2 .778 0
Rays 5 3 .625 1.5
Orioles 4 4 .500 2.5
Yankees 3 5 .375 3.5
Blue Jays 3 6 .333 4
AL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Indians 8 1 .889 0
Royals 6 1 .857 1
Twins 3 6 .333 5
Tigers 1 7 .125 6.5
White Sox 1 7 .125 6.5
AL West WON LOST PCT GB
A’s 7 2 .778 0
Rangers 6 3 .667 1
Angels 5 4 .556 2
Astros 4 5 .444 3
Mariners 1 8 .111 6

In the individual leaders, Strat-O-Matic does not distinguish between American League and National League. On a daily basis, they present the top 12 in each of the following categories. Following are the simulation leaders to date (with any Reds who show up in the leaders notated):

Hitting

  • Batting average: Colin Moran, Pittsburgh, .538
  • Hits: Franmil Reyes, Cleveland, 18
  • Doubles: Manny Machado, San Diego, 8
  • Triples: Ketel Marte, Arizona, 3
  • Homers: Reyes, Cleveland, and Jorge Soler, Kansas City, 6 apiece
  • Runs batted in: Reyes and Soler, 13 apiece
  • Walks: Cavan Biggio, Toronto, 13
  • Sacrifice hits: Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati, among seven players with 2 each
  • Stolen bases: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta, Christian Yelich, Milwaukee, Jarrod Dyson, Pittsburgh, and Trea Turner, Washington, with 3 apiece
  • Slugging percentage: Soler, Kansas City, 1.250
  • On-base percentage, Soler, .606
  • Batting average vs. left-handed pitching: Carlos Santana, Cleveland, .636; Phillip Ervin, Cincinnati is tied for third at .600

Fielding

  • Errors: Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati, 3
  • Opponent steals allowed: Curt Casali, Cincinnati, tied with five others for fourth with 3

Pitching

  • Earned Run Average: David Price, LA Dodgers, Blake Snell, Tampa Bay and Sean Manaea, Oakland, 0.00
  • Innings pitched: Zach Davies, San Diego, 15.2
  • Walks allowed: Tyler Glasnow, San Diego, 10; Luis Castillo, Cincinnati, tied for second with 9
  • Strikeouts: Sonny Gray, Cincinnati, Zac Plesac, Cleveland, Kyle Gibson, Texas, Aaron Nola, Philadelphia, 18
  • Strikeouts per 9 innings: Gray and Nola, 14.73
  • Opponent steals allowed: Bryan Abreu, Houston, 3; Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati and 10 others, 2
  • Batting average of right-handed batting opponents: Charlie Morton, Tampa, .040; Castillo, Cincinnati, fifth at .100; Gray, Cincinnati, 11th at .150

Simulated Reds statistics after nine games

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ actual past performance. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

19 Responses

  1. Tomn

    Well, unless someone else gets selected, I’ll try to make up for my first ever MLB managerial loss.

    Senzel – CF
    Moustakas – 2B
    Suarez – 3B
    Winker – LF
    Castellano – RF
    Van Meter – 1B (Joey needs a rest after a full week)
    Barnhart – C
    Galvis – SS
    P

  2. James

    CF – Akiyama
    SS – Galvis
    3B – Suarez
    1B – Votto
    RF – Castellanos
    2B – Moustakas
    LF – Winker
    C – Casali

  3. Melvin

    Akiyama – LF
    Votto- 1B (He’s better playing every day and likes it)
    Suarez – 3B
    Moustakas – 2B
    Castellanos – RF
    Galvis – SS
    Senzel – CF
    Barnhart – C
    Castillo – P

  4. Sliotar

    Losing series to the Pirates, who were projecting like a $50 million or so payroll is not a recipe for success.

    Pittsburgh is the low-hanging fruit in the division.

  5. AirborneJayJay

    Are you sure this is a simulation? Looks a lot like the Reds 2019 offense thru 9 games and a 3-6 record. Very, very poor offensive numbers after spending something like $160MM for offensive production.
    Can David Bell be fired in simulation after 18 games if this keeps pace?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Interesting points. If you look above at the Reds team statistics through the first nine simulated games, they are performing as a team about the way Billy Hamilton does: .234, .305, .364 (AVG, OBP, SLUGGING). Small sample size caveat applies here.

      For those not familiar with Strat-O-Matic, the player cards are designed to come as close as possible to replicating that season’s stats over the course of a season. One of the very interesting aspects of this simulation performed by an entity not biased toward (or against) Cincinnati will be to see what difference the addition of Castellanos, Moustakas and Akiyama will make to the core of the 2019 team.

      As Reds fans, we would certainly take the performance of Shogo in the early going (see above). However, Castellanos, Moustakas, Joey Votto, Nick Senzel and Eugenio Suarez are all batting .200 or less. That does not figure to continue.

      While you should not expect long-term performances to be significantly below 2019 levels, you should also not anticipate performances to be greatly better than 2019. For example, 2019 was arguably Joey Votto’s worst offensive season. His 2019 Strat-O-Matic card should not result in him returning to peak Votto. However, note that he has drawn nine walks in nine games. That gives a glimpse that players’ actual performance is factored into these simulated games.

      What effect will the booming bats of Moustakas and Castellanos have on the 2020 Reds? The Strat-O-Matic simulation may give some indication over the course of an extended period. I believe we’ll see more from them, but the interesting thing to me will be to see whether that will be enough to propel the core of the 2019 team to a .500 record or hopefully much better.

    • Matt WI

      Great comment all the way around Airborne! It really does feel like 2019 again stat wise. Didn’t the simulator get the memo that the Reds were really trying to this year? This team can’t even catch a break and score hypothetical runs!

  6. TBD

    Airborne
    “Can David Bell be fired in simulation after 18 games if this keeps pace?”
    Actually aren’t we the ones who are filling out the lineup ?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Our Redleg Nation managers can put themselves in David Bell’s place. He puts what he thinks is the best lineup on the field, but what is he supposed to do when they don’t perform as expected? Is it his fault? Or their fault? Inquiring minds want to know.

  7. Peter Onte

    Akiyama – LF
    Senzel- CF
    Castellanos – RF
    Suarez – 3B
    Moustakas – 2B
    Votto – 1B
    Galvis – SS
    Barnhart – C
    P

  8. Tom Mitsoff

    We had four lineups submitted, and Tomn’s had one endorsement, breaking the four-way tie. He is our first repeat manager!

    We appreciate everyone participating, and it is our intent to get as many people an opportunity to participate as the guidelines outlined above will allow. May I suggest that when you post your lineups in the future, you perhaps give a brief explanation as to the thought process that went into your lineup, and maybe even be so bold as to ask for endorsements if other readers like your thinking!

    • Tomn

      Tom, I like the idea of adding a rationale for our lineups. For the Sunday game, I went all LH ( exc Suarez) against a tough RH pitcher. Also, I like Van Meter and hope he gets it going this year. But for tomorrow, I had to go back to a better mix plus the guys we are really counting on. Senzel is our future. Needs to be in most games. Gotta get Castellano going. And I think Winker is a very tough hitter with underrated power when healthy.

      • Tomn

        Oops I mean I put van Meter in tomorrow’s game to get him more ABs cause I like him. Vottos turn to sit.

  9. NorMichRed

    This is rather unrelated to the Strat-O-Matic simulated games (which I’m enjoying), but I’m wondering if someone out there familiar with FSO, MLB, and/or AT&T/DirecTV policies can help out. We are located in rural northern MI, too remote for cable TV options, and have been DirecTV customers for decades. We pay extra for the “‘regional sports networks” package and get the regular program array on FSO and others. We also pay for MLB Extra Innings (first installments long since billed even though no games played.) But the Reds’ game replays on FSO are being blacked out (as are other old games on other regional networks), which makes no sense for games played in the past, especially with all the add-on’s we pay for. Any idea which entity the culprit might be in preventing us from seeing the classic games. Thanks in advance for any help.

    • Doug Gray

      Pretty sure it’s a Directv issue. I’ve seen others bring it up, and they always have Directv.

  10. Big Ed

    Tom, who is the hitting coach for this crew, Alan Zinter or Turner Ward? This is awful.

    Some friends and I have replayed several half-seasons over the past few years, like 1965, 1968, 1970 and even 1912, via the Strat-o-Matic platform. (I accused SOM of replacing Pete Rose’s card one year with that of Jerry Lumpe.) The pace of play was much faster back then; games only take about 15-20 minutes.