The 2020 ZiPS Projections are now available for the Cincinnati Reds. Dan Szymborski, who writes at both Fangraphs and ESPN, is the man behind the ZiPS projections and for nearly a decade running, has released them at Fangraphs team-by-team over the course of the offseason.

What we aren’t going to do is share all of the information or stats from ZiPS. Dan’s worked hard on his system over the years, and Fangraphs pays him to share all of that over there. So if you want to see the projections for the entire team, and heck even if you don’t you should still go to the link above and check it out. Fangraphs is great, and Dan is, too. Support them.

What we do want to do, though, is highlight a few of the standout projections for the 2020 Cincinnati Reds – both good and not-to-good. We’ll break them down below.

The Good Projections

One projection jumps out as a big rebound and it’s for Joey Votto. Last season the Reds first baseman hit .261/.357/.411 – which was pretty much league average. It was good for a 98 OPS+ and a 101 wRC+. Depending on which version of WAR you prefer, his season was worth either 1.6 WAR (Baseball Reference) or 0.7 WAR (Fangraphs). The league average starter, regardless of position (since positional values are factored into WAR) is 2.0 WAR. That means that Votto was a below-average player in 2019. He got on base at a good clip, but it’s far below what he’s accustomed to. And the power simply wasn’t there, especially after we factor in the baseball being juiced to the core.

In 2020 ZiPS projects a bit of a return for Votto at the plate. His projection sees a rebound of .273/.384/.434 with 26 doubles, a triple, and 16 home runs in 563 plate appearances. The power is up, but not by a lot. His isolated power jumps from .150 to .161. But there’s also a rebound in both his contact rate and his walk rate, which help boost his average and on-base percentage a little bit. That results in a jump in Fangraphs WAR from 0.7 to 2.5. But, if we use the depth chart for playing time that comes in the article, Votto’s WAR increases to 2.9 WAR due to more time on the field.

On the mound, depending on exactly how you feel about things, Trevor Bauer’s projection could come as a surprise. In his best season he posted a 5.8 WAR. That came in 2018 with Cleveland, and he posted a 2.21 ERA that year in 175.1 innings. Last season was a tale of two different pitchers, at least in some areas. His ERA with Cleveland in the first 24 starts of the year was 3.79. Then he was acquired by Cincinnati at the trade deadline and made 10 more starts. His ERA jumped up to 6.39 with the Reds. He allowed more hits, a home run rate that wound up being 50% higher with the Reds than it was in Cleveland, but also cut his walk rate and improved his strikeout rate. It was a weird split – but in the end resulted in a 4.48 ERA in 213.0 innings.

Pitching WAR can be very, very different depending on which version you want to look at. Baseball Reference assigned Trevor Bauer 1.4 WAR for his 2019 season. 1.9 of that came with Cleveland, while he got a -0.5 with Cincinnati. Fangraphs uses a very different model for pitching WAR and had Trevor Bauer at 3.3 WAR for the 2019 season, with a 0.6 credit as a Red. ZiPS projects Trevor Bauer to be the Reds second best pitcher in 2019 according to WAR. It’s projecting 190.1 innings with a 3.74 ERA, good for 3.6 WAR (3.8 WAR after the playing time adjustment mentioned above). That’s basically neck-and-neck with Luis Castillo. For Bauer, that would easily be the second best ERA that he’s ever posted. Only his 2018 season saw him under the 4.15 mark.

The Not-As-Good Projections

This offseason has seen the Reds rumored to be interested in at least three different shortstops – Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Didi Gregorius. Unless they can make an acquisition of someone else, they’ll head into 2020 with Freddy Galvis as their starting shortstop. Last season he hit .260/.296/.438 between his time in Toronto and Cincinnati. He was quite a bit better with the Blue Jays (115 games) than he was with the Reds (32 games). As we noted the other day, Galvis may very well be an elite level defender at shortstop. But, his bat has never been close to being league average. In 2019 he posted a 92 OPS+, which was the best of his career.

ZiPS doesn’t like his chances at repeating that kind of offensive performance. In fact, the system doesn’t like his chances of coming remotely near that level of offense. It projects a .254/.297/.400 line with 30 doubles, four triples, and 15 home runs. That works out to an 80 OPS+, which would be his worst mark in the category since 2016. Overall, because of his defense his line is worth 1.4 WAR on the season  – but it’s a downgrade offensively from what he produced last season and in a big way.

On the pitching side of things that one that jumped out the most to me was Wade Miley, though he wasn’t the only one. Since he picked up the cutter in 2018 he’s posted ERA’s of 2.57 and 3.98 for Milwaukee and Houston over the last two seasons. The two years prior to that his ERA was 5.37 and 5.61. The Cincinnati Reds signed Miley to a 2-year deal with an option year for 2022 and they are clearly hoping for something a lot closer to the 2018-2019 version of Miley than the 2016-2017 version.

The ZiPS projection isn’t buying the 2018-2019 version of Wade Miley. It projects him for a 4.90 ERA in 132.1 innings pitched. That comes with 21 home runs allowed. His HR/9IP over the last two seasons was 0.9. ZiPS projects that number to jump up to 1.43 – a 50% increase in home runs over the previous two years.

Comparing the Reds to the Brewers

The Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers are the only two teams that have had their ZiPS projections published at the time of this article. Using the depth chart graphic, which doesn’t get fully into the bench but does include some expected players, the Reds are about 2.5 WAR behind the Brewers. Cincinnati has the advantage in the infield and the rotation. The Brewers have a big advantage in the outfield – hey there Christian Yelich – and a decent advantage in the bullpen. We’ll have to see how the rest of the division projects when their ZiPS projections come out – but right now the Reds and Brewers are pretty close.

Now go check out all of the Reds ZiPS projections over at Fangraphs. Does any particular projection jump out to you in one direction or the other?

81 Responses

  1. Hotto4Votto

    Since the other projection that was discussed here was posted, I always contended it was on the optimistic side. I believe Zips is a lot closer to where we actually are today, projected at about 85 wins. It’ll be a four team race and I’m not sure we’re clearly ahead of any of the other three teams in the Central race. The Reds have improved with good moves this offseason, but projections like this one should be a reminder there is work to be done, and as the article states, “all the flipped coins have to come up the same way to get this team much above average.”
    The projection and write up for Galvis is obviously concerning for a team with eyes on competing. An obvious area to address before the season starts.
    The Reds have a lot of good pieces in place, but to feel really good about our chances at least one more offensive addition and a bullpen arm need to be added.

    • Sean D

      Signed Nate Jones. I wouldn’t rely on him to be a bullpen staple, but he has had a lot of success at the major league level. His main problem has been staying healthy. I know we can’t just assume he gets better with DJ but maybe theres some magic to be worked here. This offseason every pitching signing (no matter how minor) has gotten me more interested because it seems they have a better process at evaluating and understanding pitchers. DJ, Kyle, and Caleb make things so much more interesting!

      • Hotto4Votto

        Yeah I saw that. Between Jones, Carpenter, and Raley they’ve brought in some interesting minor league signings. Added to the mix is Shafer, DeLeon, and Josh D. Smith that they added to the roster, options for the bullpen are a good thing.

  2. VaRedsFan

    If Votto starts the season with the approach that worked (2017 and 2nd half of 2019) then he will be good, and hit more than 20 HR’s. If he starts experimenting with new stances and bat grips, then he will falter like the 2018 – 2019 (1.5 seasons).
    It’s almost like he got bored with the huge success of 2017 and set out to try to do it a different way for the next year and a half.
    I still believe that his decline in performance was 90% approach and 10% age related.

    • Sean D

      HIs 2017 approach was similar to his 1st half approach. His 2nd half approach was similar to the one he used early in career until 2017. This is likely the reason he stuck with it for so long before changing back to his earlier approach.

      • Tom

        Sean, that’s what I think I saw as well – that he continued his 2017 approach into 2018 and half of 2019 and it simply didn’t work. Then he seemed to go back his earlier approving and began grooving the ball. If he’s second half 2019 Joey in 2020, he’ll be fine.

      • VaRedsFan

        I disagree guys. In 2018, I saw him into a deeper crouch (power sapping) and choked up more than he ever did. His swings were bent arm, inside out swings (More power sapping). He refused to try to pull inside pitches. Pitchers began to notice this, and started to throw more strikes on the inner half, because they knew he wouldn’t turn on them for damage.
        Fast forward to 2019 2nd half. He not only ditched the extreme choke up, but there was no choking up at all. He stood taller at the plate (less crouched). And that’s when the results got better.

  3. ransohs

    I was a little bummed about the Senzel projection. Really hoping he steps forward with the bat this year.

    It seems like its a crowded roster, desperately in need of 1-2 hitters to spike a 4+ WAR season. Makes a lot of sense to look for that Lindor, Seager, or Story upgrade, or even trying to pull in Betts.

    Bullpen projections seem pessimistic. The cheap route is to hope that Jones, Thornburg, DeLeon spike, or look at mid-season trades.

    Excited for a competitive NL Central!

  4. SultanofSwaff

    Joey vs. LHP in 2019 was really bad (0.656, a more respectable .0780 in 2018)). Not sure how he turns that around at his age. The smart move is to platoon him, but in the past he’s talked about how that wouldn’t interest him and he might walk away. Certainly puts the Reds in quite a bind—bow to veteran privilege (their trademark) by running him out there vs. lefties or put the interests of the team first.

    • Redgoggles

      I’m to the point that I’m not sure the Reds are worse off if Votto would decide to “walk away”, from a purely contractual relief standpoint over the next few years. Team before I……if he cannot hit LH’s anymore, he needs to sit for someone who can.

  5. AirborneJayJay

    I really like the Nate Jones signing for the bullpen. Minor league deal with spring training invite. The dude is lights out when healthy. If the Reds can get 60 IP’s or 60 appearances from Jones in 2020 that would be a nice addition. Wicked movement on his fastball.
    The bullpen has several good sleeper candidates to make the team. They have quietly gone about collecting some nice arms ready for a rebound when healthy. De Leon, Thornburg and now Jones. And I know I am forgetting another one.

    • Stock

      Agreed

      Bullpen looking pretty good.

      I think Shafer is very underrated
      I like DeLeon in the bullpen
      Now we have Nate Jones

      This puts Bowman on the bubble in my opinion

      Locks: Iglesias, Garrett, Stephenson, Lorenzen
      I really like: Cody Reed (out of options)
      I like but on the bubble: Shafer (2 options), DeLeon (1 option), Jones, Bowman

      The Reds could take advantage of Shafer’s and DeLeon’s options.

      The Reds could also keep using DeLeon as a starter in AAA.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      They’ve done a good job of collecting a bunch of veteran pitchers with some success in their background, and will apparently turn them all loose in somewhat of a free-for-all for the final two or three bullpen spots. May the best men win.

  6. RedNat

    unless we expect Galvis to play every inning of every game at ss don’t we have to sign another ss? I don’t think we have any other major league ready options at shortstop?

    • Redsfan48

      At this point, Blandino either makes the team as the backup or Suárez moves over once or twice a week to back up Galvis, with Senzel/Moose moving to 3B, depending which bench guy gets a start.

      • Ed

        Oof – that sounds pretty grim if 2020 is the year

      • jon

        people still thinking suarez will move to SS.

      • MBS

        I feel that Farmer has a better chance to be the back up SS, than Blandino. It’s the 3rd catcher thing that give him the nod in my books. Other than that they’d be pretty even.

    • Mark Moore

      Sign Cozart for league minimum?

      • Colorado Red

        Minor league offer, with an invite to spring training.
        Health has been a major issue for Zack the last 2 years (as well as on and off with the Reds)

  7. Matt WI

    I’d take the season from Votto, especially the .380 OBP. But I have hope that he still has something left and can actually outperform the overall projection. I’ll take a bunch of doubles if the HR’s aren’t going to go up. But get Joey and Shogo on base in front of Suarez, Moose, and Aquino on the regular? Yes please.

    • Reaganspad

      I agree Matt. I think Votto has been tinkering so much with his swing that he has created this problem for himself in 2019. Add in a new hitting coach that he may have listened to, maybe not. I was thinking the other day (and when they originally changed our hitting coach) why? We were better in that aspect before 2019. I think that the management may have brought in a new hitting coach especially for Votto. And when 2019 wasn’t any better for him, they quickly made a change again.

      Votto is a very smart guy, and listens to a lot of theory and then goes applies. I think he has a little too much theory going on right now, and may need to go back to a more basic approach. I do not know if his eyesight has changed, but his command of the strike zone has in the past few years. He has gone to a lot of those half swings trying to foul off the pitch, and I think those are hurting his swing.

      I would like to see him more grip it and rip it in 2020. Knock off the check swings. don’t argue as much at the plate with the ump. I think it is screwing up his psychy,.

      I also look for Joey to have a rebound year. I see his OBP actually going down a bit with this strategy, but his slugging to go up as he rakes more doubles again and more than 20 HRs.

      Speaking of psychy, I see Bauer calming down and being more coachable this year. He has seen what this staff can do with Sonny, and have to believe he wants that as well.

      Back to my earlier prediction about the hitting coach for Joey, I believe that a lot of the pitching staff moves have been made especially for Bauer. I think they believe that they can maintain the right pitching coaching staff, see Bauer have a Cy Young type season, have the budget, and be able to compete well enough on a 1 year contract to resign Bauer after he wins the Cy Young for us in 2020. It is easier to spend $30 million one time than 10.

      I see both Bauer and Votto as exceeding these projections and that makes me happy for this 2020 team

      • VaRedsFan

        Your Votto comments kind of nailed it with what I was saying above. Paralysis by analysis.

  8. IndyRedsFan

    Doug, or anyone…

    Is there somewhere one could go to look at the ZiPS projections for 2019…posted side by side with the actual outcome??

    It seems that sort of “report card” would be helpful in understanding just how much weight to put into these projections.

  9. Mike Kelsch

    I know it has been debated endlessly, but I thought it was interesting that in his projection summary he discussed Senzel moving to SS.

    • RedNat

      it is a risk but I feel that is the only way we can really be competitive in the NLcentral this year (BARING A TRADE FOR A SS).

      If Senzel can play everyday at short and Shogo in center we have a good chance to win the central.

      if Glavis is our everyday shortstop I don’t think we will be able to generate enough offense.

      • Indy Red Man

        Senzel can’t be counted on to play daily anywhere. Its almost like he’s an Indianapolis Colt

    • Colorado Red

      If Nick can be solid at short, it is a big help.
      But how many positions does this poor kid need to learn?

      • VaRedsFan

        Exactly….that’s another full spring of learning (not to mention he ‘s barely even throwing yet.) Then back to the minors for experience. Probably a full year of growing pains.

        I wish we could go one day without saying Senzel to SS
        Baseball people have said he can’t play SS effectively. Facts…..Not my opinion

  10. Steve Schoenbaechler

    I hate projections myself.

    Given that, I will state, I would have been fine if the Reds did nothing this off season. That would simply tell me that they would be betting that our offense can get better, or “hit to their baseball card”, unlike what they did in 2019.

    But, with what the Reds have done, I definitely believe they have gotten better overall. No one star player but pieces that can assist. Shogo and Moose will help the batting. Miley with help the pitching.

    But, something not discussed much is, these players come from previously winning organizations, if I recall correctly. Moose won a WS with KC. I heard on Lance’s show that Shogo came from a winning organization. And, Miley was on the Brewers when they went to the NCLS.

    How does this help? Last season, I looked at the “Pythagorean record” a lot. And, I was seeing often the Reds had one of the best records in the league. That tells me that when the game was a blowout, the Reds were winning more often than losing. But, when the game was close, the Reds were losing more. Losing close games, that’s a function of a young inexperienced team, a team who doesn’t know how to win. I believe these pieces will assist us with that as well.

    Overall, I see us competing for the last playoff spot right now. I believe our hitting will pickup, I believe our pitching will still be good, but not as good as it was (I simply believe last season may have been a fluke). If we can find one more bat, or if our offense takes to what I mentioned earlier (Votto picks it up, Winker picks it up, Senzel, etc.), I believe we will be competing for the division title.

    • Ed

      last year, the record caught back up to the team’s performance after the break. We didn’t get much production out of VanMeter, O’Grady, etc. The catcher’s went down with injuries. We also cashed out of Puig right as he was streaming towards hot, and he proceeded to really get on base with the Indians. We also started using Bauer, Wood and Gausman as starters, who combined for at least 11 losses. It was a weird year. I hate it, but if the Cubs or Cardinals add an impact bat, our current roster as it now stands is still going to really struggle.

      • Ed

        I don’t think anyone imagined the 2019 catching core, for several weeks at least, was going to end up being Ryan Lavarnway, Juan Graterol, and Kyle Farmer

  11. BK

    I was surprised to see such an optimistic projection for Barnhart (.249/.333/.390; 1.9 WAR)–this would make him very near league average and perhaps not a hole in the lineup. I’m frankly shocked for the pessimism towards Robert Stephenson (20th best pitcher on Reds next year). For a pitcher that really seemed to grow more and more comfortable as a reliever last year it’s hard to see a rationale basis for this forecast.

    • Doug Gray

      With Stephenson, the big thing is that the system doesn’t think his walk rate in 2019 was real and sees a massive increase in walks for 2020.

    • Jack

      Projections are just that, projecting past performance onto the next year. They don’t and can’t measure a player who makes a change in how he does something…new pitch, totally new batting approach and stance, steroids or other radical body change. They are a useful tool for teams but will never be perfect.

    • JoshG

      i don’t understand the barnhart part… I don’t call those numbers very optimistic… that’s basically his average career numbers
      I expect a little better numbers than that from him

  12. Jeff Gangloff

    Is it just me, or is everyone down on Senzel?

    This guy is the crown jewel of the rebuild. He’s only 24 years old and his hit tool is supposed to be decently above average. We saw him play a good center field last year.

    Yes, he has had injuries – but I feel like he is just so much of an afterthought. People are so ready to ship him off for a competent short stop or act like hes not supposed to be a big contributor for this team going forward.

    I think Nick really comes into his own this year and blossoms into a guy that will help this team for years to come.

    • Indy Red Man

      I’ve been down on him, but he can turn it around. Its just tough to see so many guys that are younger then Senzel like Acuna, Albies, etc. contribute everyday while Senzel is always hurt. The Reds definitely need him to turn it around if he’s not shipped out for Lindor. Winker too….think his ops was misleading and he’s a liability everywhere except at the plate so he needs to hit!

      • VaRedsFan

        Bingo….Add in Juan Soto.
        Those are real crown jewels.

    • Colorado Red

      Not down on him at all.
      But, I do think he needs some stability at positions.
      3B, the 2B, then CF, now people are talking SS.

      makes it real hard on the kid.
      PS, a new hitting coach, and going back to what worked will do wonders.

      • VaRedsFan

        He is stable, he was the CF’er last season, and will be again this year.

    • RedNat

      not sure if people are down on him but I think fans have adjusted their expectations. we were all hoping for a Joe Morgan type caliber player but I think (if he stays healthy),he will translate more to a Bill Doran type player. good player but not a perennial all star.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Part of the desire to trade Senzel is that some want to bring in an established difference maker to the lineup. And for the most part, while projecting to be very good, it may still take a while before he is himself an established difference maker. You have to trade talent to get talent goes the old adage.
      There’s other reasons, like the additions of Moose and Akiyama have made his positions replaceable with quality players, but there are areas on the team that could use upgrading with no one able to step in. Also there are the chronic injury concerns that may limit his contributions moving forward.
      I don’t see it as much giving up on Senzel but more so recognizing he’s our most valuable trade chip.

    • MBS

      Suarez > Moustakes > Votto > Winker = Senzel > Aquino = Shogo > Galvis = Barnhart = Ervin = Jankowski > Casali = Farmer

      That’s my expectations for 2020 position players. I’m not down on Senzel, but he’s not king of the mountain yet.

  13. Indy Red Man

    One downer I feel strongly about is Sonny Gray. 175 ip 122 hits with a 2.87. His stuff isn’t that good. I’d say 2020 looks something like a 3.60 era….not that there’s anything wrong with that. Hopefully Bauer can pick up the slack!

    Nate Jones is an interesting pickup. Always liked his stuff, but he’ll be 34 shortly and he’s definitely a lottery ticket at this point.

    • Colorado Red

      Baur is in a contract year, that is usually a good sign.

      • Bill J

        Of you believe what he says every year is going to be a contact year.

  14. IndyRedsFan

    This will sound like a criticism, but it’s not meant to be…..just something I found amusing.
    In looking closer at the projections, they list a “#1 Comparable”.

    For Freddy Galvis, it’s Leo Durocher. Durocher’s last season as starting SS was 1939…80 years ago.

    Galvis must be a unique dude if they had to go back that far to find the best comparable.

    • Big Ed

      The #1 Baseball Reference comp for Galvis is Zach Cozart.

      • JayTheRed

        So interesting option for SS just came about even though I don’t think its the greatest thing it would possibly give us a backup if Galvis can’t cut it. Cozart just went on release waviers. Maybe a minor league deal with incentives for performance might not be a bad option.

        Thoughts.

  15. Jerad Malmberg

    projections are cool and all but they are overhyped. I wouldn’t worry too much about what they say about the reds. They will do just fine.

    • Doug Gray

      Every team in baseball is using projections to try and figure out what they need, though. And honestly, these projections actually show that the Reds are a pretty good team.

      • Old-school

        I like pretty good- but any injuries to the bullpen and less than huge bounce back seasons from Votto and Barnhart undermines this team in a hurry. That doesn’t even address SS. Injuries always happen and I don’t know that this team has enough talent or margins to weather the 162 game grind to beat the Cards or Cubs. The Cubs have 3 MVP candidates. The Cards buried the Reds in 2019. They have zero chance at the wildcard.

      • Jerad Malmberg

        I understand, I’m not trying to say they are pointless. They seem pretty solid, I think the reds are better than the brewers by a good margin. I think they are more complete than the cubs. I even think they are better than the Cardinals (without Arenado). I don’t really need to talk about the Pirates at this point. I think we will have more than one hitter hit higher than a .273 average. I was just saying the good and the bad with the projections can be overhyped, but a good reference point for the upcoming season. So much can and will happen during the season. I expect big things this year.

  16. G-Man

    It’s exciting to see the Reds OBP projections for 2020, with 7 possible starters projected to be above the NL average OBP from 2019 (.323):
    – Votto .384
    – Winker .372
    – Suarez .349
    – Barnhart .333
    – Moustakis .332
    – Akiyama .331
    – Senzel .326
    It seems like it’s been quite a few years since we had this many players with the ability to get on base at a high rate. Should really help increase the number of runs scored in 2020!

  17. Old-school

    The reds will never do this but the Braves lost out on Donaldson and desperately need a 3b and power bat in the middle of their order.

    Eugenio Suarez + Raisel Iglesias for Christian Pasche , Ian Anderson Kyle Wright and Drew Waters would give the Reds the young talent to win for 5 -7 years and weather the Joey Votto decline and contract.
    Nick Senzel goes to 3b. The Of is loaded with the best young CF in the game in Pasche after starting in louisville for a few months. Shogo/ winker/Aquino/Pasche/Waters in the OF. The SP is loaded with Castillo/Gray/Bauer/Disco/ Miley with a succession of Anderson ,Wright and Greene and Lodolo. The reds would have the deepest young talent in MLB. No one wanted to trade Lee May either.

    • G-Man

      Ugh…and so the rebuild starts again? No way…keep Suarez and continue to build around him to win in 2020 and 2021! I’m tired of 87-90 loss seasons!

      • greenmtred

        How much of a building block would Suarez be if the ball returns to normal? He’d still be pretty good, but it was mainly the homers that drew our attention last year. And the Reds need to always be rebuilding.

    • Telecaster

      I don’t know what trade the reds can make but I know they need it. They are barely on the fringes of competing for the division and are no where near the World Series contenders. They need a hitter that’s going to be in the race for the triple crown!

      • jazzmanbbfan

        And hitters who will be in the race for the triple crown are actually obtainable??? Off the top of my head I can think of Yelich, Rendon, Arenado, Cruz (who is a DH), Bellinger, and Trout. Are any of those really available? Maybe Arenado but at what price?

    • Scott C

      Suarez is a cost controlled certified MLB player and run producer. And while I would have no qualms on trading him if we got back a haul like the Reds got in the Houston trade, (Note that Morgan and BIllingham I believe were already established MLB players. Geronimo had only played I think about a year in the majors. But the trade you are proposing although the top four Braves prospects are just that prospects three of which I don’t believe have played (at least a full season) above AA.

    • Bill J

      I like the idea OS, if the GO has the guys to do it.

    • JoshG

      or Christian Pasche , Ian Anderson Kyle Wright and Drew Waters could never come even close to as good as Iglesias and Suarez are now

      • Bill J

        You would rather wait like they did with Fraizer?

      • Ed

        I don’t see how you expect to plug the hole left by Suarez. Senzel is clearly not going to mash anywhere near 40 homers, nor offer protection from some other slugger should one be acquired via trade or free agency. Suarez is someone you build around, not dump. The outfield is extremely middling as it is now, but the answer isn’t to add more unproven talent and bail on the core that they’ve been developing. With 6 years of Suarez left, hang on to him for 3 and then move him. The idea of dumping him now just seems kinda silly. It would be like the Nationals moving Soto, Brewers moving Yelich- only Suarez (and now Moose) are the only proven bats in the lineup that performed with consistency in 2019. Use him as a reliable cornerstone around which to build a solid core.

      • Old-school

        Suarez is the reds best player. But, he hit 47 home runs in 2019 with a juiced ball, Luis Castillo and Sonny gray were dominant….and the reds still lost 87 games. No way you trade him if you think the reds contend with the Dodgers/ Nats/braves/ Phillies for the NLcS or are better than the Cards or Cubs. I don’t think the reds have done enough. They don’t have enough positional talent and have holes at C/ SS / and possibly the bullpen and that doesn’t even address Joey Votto this year or in 2022

        Christian Pasche is a generational talent at a crucial position and major league ready at 21.
        . Speed grade 80.. arm 70. Glove 80 and he’s hitting. Bobby Cox called him the most dynamic defensive CF he’s ever seen….at age 19. Andruw Jones called him the best braves defensive OF in the system at 19. Every player is trade-able for the right price and the Reds could get Senzel.back to his natural Gold Glove position.
        Suarez +1 would be steep but the Braves have 4mlb ready pieces in the top 35 of mlb.

  18. AirborneJayJay

    The Rangers had to DFA 2 LH relievers today to make room for free agent signings. The 26 year old Kyle Bird had stellar numbers in the minors but got a rude MLB welcoming in just 12 IP’s with Texas last year. He throws 4 pitches, FB at 91-93, and has 2 minor league options remaining. Several ERA’s in the 2.00’s.
    The 27 year old Jeffrey Springs had some killer K/9 numbers in the minors, but got lit up in Texas in 2019. He has a high grade on his change up, throws 5 pitches, FB at 90-92, but also has a low GB%. He has 3 minor league options remaining.
    I might look to make a minor trade for Bird with at the very least having the ability to stash him at AAA in 2020 if need be.

    • Colorado Red

      Do you know if either of them have any options left?
      Would have to put them on the 40 man, and DFA someone else
      Kyle is interesting.
      Nice POST.

  19. Mark

    Casey Sadler dfa by Dodgers this evening he looks pretty good maybe Reds look at this guy? Thoughts?

    • JayTheRed

      Cozart was put on release waviers today too. Not sure how much he has recovered from injuries but would it be worth giving a minor league deal to since San. Fran is paying most of his salary this season.

  20. Telecaster

    Winning the World Series, priceless!

  21. Still a Red

    Not really a Galvis fan, and I realize dbls and hrs figures alone aren’t as telling as OPS etc. BUT, 30 dbls and 15 hrs isn’t sooo bad, especially if surrounded by others in the line-up. If you can land Lindor without throwing away too much, great…but it doesn’t feel like the Indians want to trade him that badly. Why sign Cozart (a fan I am, but) if you could still pick up Iglesias on FA. Also, a season like 2012 for Votto with 44 dbs and 14 hrs works for me. He did that in 111 games…even if it took him 150 games to that again it would still work for me.

      • Still a Red

        Ooops. Thanks. P.S. In Baltimore Sun, Iglesias credits Votto for his (iglesias’s) relatively good (for him) offensive season last year.

    • JayTheRed

      I’m assuming any deal for Cozart would be a minor league deal with incentives for games played or other stats.