To kick off 2020 former General Manager of the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals Jim Bowden wrote an article at The Athletic with one bold prediction for each month of the year. It didn’t take long for him to invoke the Reds in one of his predictions. For his February prediction he goes with the Cleveland Indians trading Francisco Lindor to Cincinnati for Nick Senzel, Jonathan India, Tyler Mahle, and a player to be named later.

That’s certainly a heck of a trade. Francisco Lindor is arguably the best shortstop in baseball. He’s under team control for two more seasons, and will probably make about $40,000,000 over those two seasons. In 2020 MLB Trade Rumors projected his salary in arbitration to be $16,700,000. Lindor is a superstar and he would change the lineup for the Reds.

As far as what Cincinnati would be sending to Cleveland, that’s a whole lot of talent – both now and perceived. Nick Senzel and Tyler Mahle are both Major Leaguers. Senzel is less than a year removed from being a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Through July he was hitting .285/.346/.475. But he struggled in August before his shoulder became too much of a hindrance and ultimately led to season ending surgery. He’s expected to be ready at the start of spring training.

Tyler Mahle has spent parts of three seasons in the Major Leagues. He’s shown fairly big first half and second half splits for his career. In the first half his ERA is 4.24 with a 2.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In the second half his ERA jumps to 6.72 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio declines to 1.9. Figuring out the issue that’s leading to the second half slumps could go a long way towards Mahle taking the step forward from being a #4/5 starter to a reliable mid-rotation starter.

And then there’s Jonathan India. He was the #5 overall pick in the 2018 draft and has already reached Double-A. Depending on where you look, he’s rated as highly as the #2 prospect in the organization (Baseball America). During the 2019 season he hit .256/.346/.410 in Advanced-A Daytona in the first half – good for a 125 OPS+ in the very pitcher friendly league. When he moved up to Double-A in the second half his power dropped off, but his plate discipline improved as his walk rate jumped up 50% and his strikeout rate dropped off, too. He hit .270/.414/.378 with Chattanooga – good for a 137 OPS+.

The big problem with Jonathan India and the Cincinnati Reds is simple: Where does he fit? In his career, India has played third base, second base, and a limited amount of shortstop. But shortstop isn’t in his future. With Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez locked in for at least the next four seasons it’s tough to see exactly where the organization can play India unless they move him to the outfield – which if you’ve been paying attention (and we know you have) isn’t exactly open either.

You can make the argument both ways on this deal. It’s hard to say that Francisco Lindor wouldn’t make the Reds better in 2020 and 2021 – he’s one of the best players in baseball. He’s a difference maker. But the flip side is that you are giving up a lot of talent going the other way, and you are giving up some future years – at least in theory – for 2020 and 2021. It’s too rich for my blood, but your mileage may vary and that’s perfectly fine.

P.S. Take a look at the prediction for September.

The Reds sign infielder Matt Davidson

On Thursday afternoon the Cincinnati Reds signed infielder Matt Davidson to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. He hit 33 home runs in Triple-A last season with the Texas Rangers organization, and has spent several seasons in the Major Leagues in previous years. Oh, and he’s pitched a little bit, too. Over at RedsMinorLeagues.com we took a bit of a deeper dive into the deal and how he could possibly help out the Reds in 2020.

97 Responses

  1. Tom

    If India can’t play SS, I think at this point he’s expendable for a trade.

    Now much has he played SS in the minors?

    • Magnum 44

      India is another third baseman just like the other 7 we have on roster…… Give up Senzel do the deal or trade Suarez get Robles and Kielbloom and let’s get spring training started

    • Redleg4life

      Agreed unless he can play shortstop or first base then we will have to trade him.

      • Alex

        India will play 2nd and moose to 1st to replacd votto

    • Mark Williams

      offer Senzel Winker and Santillan and a player to be named for Lindor then add more bullpen help.

  2. GhostRunner

    I can’t image Cleveland not wanting either Greene or Lodolo as part of a trade. Would be sweet to keep them both IMO.

    • Knute

      If you’d still do gregorius for choo or alonso, grandal, boxberger and volquez for latos, you’d do this one. I would not. It looks good for the next two years, assuming your new centerfield can play, but you’d be looking at a lot of holes in two years with not a lot left to fill them. You also have to sign Ozuna unless you want to go into the season with Akiyama, Winker, Aquino and Ervin as your regular outfielders. There are a lot of questions with that group.

  3. Doc

    Big gamble for 2020/21. Ask me in two years; I need some time to think about it!

  4. CFD3000

    I have zero problem with Mahle and India heading to Cleveland, but I’d hate to see Senzel gone. This is of course all speculative but I’d push hard to send Willy Mo Aquino instead. Also, please let’s not have this deal and end up with Marcel Ozuna to somehow fill an outfield slot.

    • Colt Holt

      I would be willing to center a trade around senzel or Mahle/India. Including all three seems too much. I could see senzel and India, since he is blocked anyways.

  5. Redleg4life

    The thing with this is that there is another player involved not just Senzel Mahle and India. If I had to guess I would think that the fourth player is Phillip ervin. Now even if this does happen and we look great for 2 years we would be in a bad situation after the 2021 season. Unless we can resign Lindor…..

    • Slicc50

      Not neccessarily……Garcia should be ready to take over SS position about the time Lindor would hit free agency. Plus, if the moves made to strengthen the minor league development system work out, there should be more young kids ready to come up and contribute

    • Hotto4Votto

      Depends on what you mean by bad situation. The core of the team will still be around in 2022. Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, Winker, Aquino, Akiyama, and Barnhart (option) would all still be controlled in 2022. All but Barnhart (and possibly Akiyama depending on the contract details) are controlled beyond 2022. Prospects like Garcia, Stephenson, Siri, and Fairchild would be on track to contribute by then, if not earlier.
      Castillo (arb) and Gray (option) can be controlled through 2023 and Miley (option) through 2022 forming the solid basis of a rotation. Prospects Greene, Lodolo, and Santillan should be ready to contribute as well. Garrett and R. Stephenson would still be here through 2023 through ARB as well.

      Sure, maybe that core ages rapidly and declines. Maybe the prospects don’t work out (some almost assuredly won’t). But those are risks regardless of keeping Senzel, India, or Mahle. To me, based on contract lengths being signed this offseason aligning with the known control of the core and proximity of top prospects it looks like the FO is setting up 2020-23 to be the window. Lindor makes us look very good for two years. Keeping Senzel likely doesn’t keep the window open much longer because we just lose too much afterward.

  6. Hotto4Votto

    Trade simulator rejects that trade. It has the Reds giving up almost twice the value as they’re getting back. My initial reaction is it is an overpay. I want Lindor, and would be willing to trade Senzel in a deal. Trading much more without someone else coming back, like Mercado, makes this a non-starter. Pivot to working out a trade for Seager instead.

    There’s a reason old leatherpants isn’t a GM anymore.

    • Sliotar

      @Hotto4Votto

      The positioning of a near-term “overpay” is key on Cleveland’s part, IMO.

      The Indians have already told their fans they are not punting on 2020, even with a Lindor trade… kind of like how the Reds have positioned us that they would #getthehitting.

      Sending Senzel and Mahle sells the “getting back MLB-ready talent” part for the Indians. Kick out India, put in another or lottery ticket further down.

      “Lindor for Senzel Plus” makes too much sense for both sides not to do it before Spring Training.

      • Hotto4Votto

        Understand that it will take Senzel “plus” in a trade package and the Reds will likely have to be the ones who give up more in the trade. I’m willing to give up a lot. I think Senzel in himself is already a lot, and he and Lindor have similar trade value as it is consider years of control and price points. But there’s a point where it’s too much. Senzel and Mahle, and other (not top 6) prospects fine. Senzel and India and other (not top 6 prospect), fine. Senzel and Mahle and India is too much for my blood, I’ll draw the line there. As I said above, it’d be different if Cleveland was sending another piece back. Cleveland is motivated by moving salary, if they want to move that salary they need to not worry about getting such a huge overpay and instead focus on getting good value.
        I think Senzel + India + other prospects or Senzel + Mahle + other prospects is good value.

    • Scott C

      To get Lindor you are going to have to overpay. I do think though that sending two MLB players, particularly one being Senzel + a top 5 draft pick and one more is still too high of an overpay.

  7. Bill J

    Looks like we’ve loaded up on outfielders and third base men. There are about 5 teams looking for 3rd base men, work out the best deal with the Braves, Nationals or Twins and go from there. But move quick.

    • Hamer Campbell

      What about Hunter Greene, India, and Mahle.

  8. jim walker

    If the Akiyama sigining is for real, I’d rather see Winker as the lead piece, understanding I’d also have to sweeten the things down the line to balance out Senzel not being in the deal.

    I get it that the irony here is that having Akiyama is also probably what would make the Reds willing to part to with Senzel. I’d jusr rather move Winker and give more elsewhere in the deal.

    However, if all the national media folks and prognosticators are tuned in accurately, it appears Cleveland is locked in on Senzel; and, there will be no deal with Reds that does not include him. This being the case, I think the total pack as presented by Bowden it too much.

    • Scott Beard

      Hi Jim Walker I am curious if you are the same Jim Walker I grew up with in the 70s in a small town in Indiana and you were on the corner of Jackson and 8th a half a block from me.

    • MBS

      I think if it is Senzel, then there are off limit prospects (Greene, Lodolo, India, Stephenson). I’d be willing to do many other mixing and matchings of prospects. I’d also be willing to trade Mahle. Something more like Senzel, Mahle, and Siri.

  9. AirborneJayJay

    When did Ole Leatherpants become Nostradamus??
    The Reds are not and should not include Senzel or Winker in any trade. Period. Get over that fact. It isn’t happening. Aquino to an AL team in a trade package sets up perfectly. Cleveland needs a big outfielder/DH type.
    Hunter Greene, Aquino, India, and Mahle or Lucas Sims.
    Lodolo makes Greene available.
    Akiyama makes Aquino available.
    Moustakas makes India expendable.
    Miley makes Mahle expendable.

    • Jim t

      AirborneJay, you may be selling a bit low on AA. He is a good outfielder with a cannon-for a arm. Winker and Senzel have trouble staying on the field. Both to this point in their careers are more promise then production. Winker is a below average fielder who didn’t hit lefties well last year. I wouldn’t call him a platoon player but he isn’t far from it. Senzel has more upside based on his athletism and versatility but he has not put it together for a full season yet.

    • jim walker

      Winker is a one (OBP) or at best two (SLG) dimensional player. He is a liability in the field and on the base paths. Playing in a DH league could shield him from his most negative situation, playing outfield.

      Winker and Akiyama are both LH hitters. Votto and Moose are LH hitters. The Reds need a RH power bat or 2 in addition to Suarez. The Reds should hold onto Aquino over Winker since he is an RH power bat who fields better and runs bases better than Winker.

      • Old-school

        .285/.379/.466/845 wRC+ 122

        12% BB 15% K.
        Young and cheap.
        Those are pretty big tools.

    • jim walker

      @Old School

      And Aquino is right there with Winker at with .887 career OPS and 122 OPS+. I’ll take the bet that his greater power will compensate for his lower OBP (around .315) while his fielding prowess (including his arm) is head and shoulders better as is his base running.

      Aquino did it as an everyday player hitting against both LH and RH pitching while Winker was a platoon player in 2018.

      In 2+ months, Aquino has exactly matched Winker’s career WAR of 1.3 which took parts of 3 seasons for Winker to accrue.

      • Old-school

        AA has a career?
        He has 200+ at bats.
        In August he was Barry Bonds.
        In September- .196/.236/.382/.619
        wRC+ 52.

        Winker has been an elite hitter over the entirety of his milb and MLB ” career”. AA was left off the 40 man roster a year ago and all MLB teams passed. His career is fire and ice. I hope he is Vlad Guerrero but DW has said he’s not playing RF every day.

        The reds finished 16 games behind the Cards. They open the season against the cards who have righty dominant SP.

        Mikolas/ Flaherty/ Wainwright/ Hudson. The reds aren’t risking another historically awful April with poor hitting.

        Maybe Doug can update AA DWL stats.

      • Old-school

        .209/.255/.395/.650

        47 at bats in Dominican winter league. That’s 25 % of his ” career ” at bats. AA is not starting against the Cards on opening day against righty Jack Flaherty. Neither is Phil Ervin.

        The fact AA is playing in winter ball indicates a sense of desperation to prove himself.

      • Big Ed

        It is drivel to say that Aquino’s playing Dominican ball this winter “indicates a sense of desperation to prove himself.”

        Aquino likely wanted to work on a few things, and the DWL was the best competition to get it done, especially since he is Dominican. He had a total of 65 PAs in the DWL the prior two years. 47 PAs is by definition a small sample size, so his stats are generally irrelevant; his BABIP, for example, was .182. One thing that is encouraging about his DWL performance is that he struck out only 6 times in the 47 PAs.

        Aquino was the National League Player of the Month in his first month in MLB. People can choose to believe that he lucked into it, but I don’t. Will he need to adjust and adjust and adjust? Yes. They all do.

      • Old-school

        @bigEd. Usually agree but I will disagree here. The DWL.is 90+ % players who are not on 40 man rosters. Sure, Andy Sugilo as a lower level minor player might benefit. But AA is not only a 40 man roster player, he’s an MLB 25 man guy who is trying to be an every day MLB right fielder. He’s not going to hit better against major league pitching by facing low level.minor league players or washed up Lisalberto Bonilla’s. Jack Flaherty is on the bump Opening day. Max Scherzer and Jacob degrom are next.

        He should be in Goodyear working with his new hitting coaches and working out a world class MLB complex.

    • Redleg4life

      We can’t lose both Mahle and Greene

    • ThePensive

      This has been the structure for a trade that I’ve envisioned taking shape. India, Greene, Mahle, and an OF (ideally Aquino). Trading Senzel AND other players is too much of an overpay, IMO.

  10. Jim t

    Getting 2 years of Lindor is huge. It puts us,with our pitching staff potentially in the top 3 teams in the NL. If Aquino turns out to be the real deal it might make us the team to beat. I understand the downside of losing years of control but having a chance to play in the series is what the goal should be. Adding Lindor accomplishes what we all want, a chance to win. In our market these opportunities don’t grow on trees.

    We still keep Green,Tyler Stephenson, Garcia and Lodolo. A solid group for the years after Lindor walks. We also eat two more years of Votto’s declining years. In my mind this is a no brainer.

  11. Linkster

    Do the deal today! Also, add Ozuna into the mix as a FA signing. This would place the Reds as a possible WS participant.

    • Mitch

      Ozuna would cost a draft pick and Castellanos doesn’t but comes with as good or better #’s!!! Plus we have 7-9 OF’s on the roster already (after we officially sign Akiyama) and I don’t know if we can afford another FA with the additional payroll Lindor adds over what we would send to Cleveland.

  12. RedNat

    I just don’t think I there is much of a future here for Senzel. He played an average center field and apparently can’t play shortstop so where do you play him??
    Trading for Lindor makes sense to me. He is going to generate a ton of ticket sales and could lead us to the world series. If it doesn’t work out we could always deal him next year for prospects so it is a win win for me

    • Sean D

      What! Senzel is the starter of Akiyama for sure. He’s an average center fielder defensively his first time ever playing it, he’s got plus plus speed so he’ll likely get better to at least be above average. As for hitting aside from a 2 month stretch he has hit everywhere he has gone. Until July before his mechanical adjustment he had an OPS of over .800 which is very very good. Senzel is going to be good as long as he can stay healthy and I think his injury concerns are a little overblown

      • Curt

        Injury concerns would be even less if he wasn’t crashing around learning centerfield.

  13. Wizeman

    Let’s ask Barry Larkin what he thinks of Bowdens prediction

  14. Jack

    Reds shock everyone by sending Suarez to the Indians and move Senzel back to 3rd?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      No way. Reds still have six years of control of one of the best power hitters in the game. He’s not going anywhere. Literally Suarez is one of the most valuable assets in all of MLB. The baseballtradevalues.com trade simulator has him as the 15th most valuable asset in the game. I’m not sure how reliable that specific number is, but it is interesting.

      • Jack

        He may be most valuable due to his contract but no way he is a top 15 player in MLB. I see him as a so-so defender with contact issues. His power really played up this year due to the baseball and of course the stadium. That said he is, as you said, very valuable due to his cost control and skills, which something Cleveland or any team would covet. Lindor however is elite and I don’t know why they would trade him for talented unknowns like Senzel or any of the other players listed. Just spit balling these the same way old leatherpants no doubt is.

      • Sean D

        As you pointed out Suarez has insane value for example if they reds traded Suarez to the Indians it would be Suarez for Lindor and something not Lindor for Suarez and something

  15. vegastypo

    (For those who don’t subscribe to The Athletic, here is part of Bowden’s prediction for September.)

    The Cincinnati Reds clinch the National League Central Division on the final day of the regular season. The Reds won their final seven games of the regular season, all on the road, against the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates to overtake the St. Louis Cardinals and advance to the postseason with an 89-73 record. The Reds’ starting rotation finishes in the top five in most categories including ERA, FIP and strikeouts.

  16. MK

    If Senzel has another season like the last three where he misses a significant amount of time due to injury or illness, his value as a useful starter or trade commodity is going to diminish greatly. There is still the history of vertigo which has been known in others to become chronic. 2020 will be a big season for him to see if he can do better than a .256 hitter, as he struggled lat year with his mechanics. Make the trade but no Lodolo or Greene.

    • Michael E

      This is how I feel. Make any deal for a big upgrade that centers around Senzel and India and maybe, if necessary, far lesser prospect pieces.

      DO NOT TRADE Lodolo or Greene. Just don’t do it.

  17. vegastypo

    Regarding that proposed trade itself, I’m not as opposed as many here are, despite the steep cost. If that doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, so be it. But dang, I’d like to see Lindor as the Reds’ everyday shortstop.

  18. Tom Mitsoff

    Everyone has their own thoughts on what makes an equitable trade, and in this case, what the Reds should be willing to give up for Lindor. All of the ideas of different Reds fans are what make for compelling reading and discussion.

    Ultimately, we all are guessing what Dick Williams and the Indians braintrust will be willing to do.

    My two cents:

    If I’m the Indians, Senzel MUST be included. He’s the Reds most valuable YOUNG AND CONTROLLABLE asset. The Dodgers have apparently told Cleveland that Gavin Lux, their most valuable YOUNG AND CONTROLLABLE asset, is not being traded, which has shifted most of the Lindor speculation to Cincinnati.

    If I’m the Reds, it’s clear the team is trying to contend. The as-yet-not-officially-announced signing of Shogo Akiyama and the continued pursuit of Marcell Ozuna indicate this is an effort to contend not only for a division title, but perhaps more. There are two starting positions that can clearly use upgrades, and those are shortstop and catcher. If you can get perhaps the best shortstop in the game by giving up Senzel (a player who has been notably injury-prone), that might put your team on par with the best in the league — especially considering the excellence of the starting rotation.

    Bottom line: Is it worth giving up Senzel to become a championship contender? From this commenter’s perspective, absolutely. If this is not the objective of the team I have loved for nearly a half-century, then what is? I would be highly disappointed if we eventually learn that the Reds had the chance to get Lindor and would not give up Senzel. The Dodgers do not have to give up Lux to put themselves in a position to contend for the World Series. The Reds don’t have the same luxury.

    Caveat: I would not give up a whole lot more than Senzel. But this is one observer’s opinion, and we’re all fortunate that we have a forum like Redleg Nation to express and vent our passions about our team.

    • AirborneJayJay

      Ask yourself the same question from a little different view.
      Is it worth giving up Hunter Greene to become a championship contender??
      If the Indians ask for Greene the substitute Greene for Senzel and pull the trigger. Let the Indians get intoxicated on Greene’s “potential” over the next few seasons while the Reds are winning divisions (and more) with Lindor and Senzel.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Interesting that you would bring up Greene. 🙂 I would not trade him for anyone (other than Mike Trout). This just goes to show that a trade like one for Lindor (and any trade for that matter) boils down to what the general managers of the two teams think of the players involved. So that’s why it’s important to try to understand how THEY are thinking instead of how WE are thinking. To me, the fact that the Reds are bringing in Akiyama and still trying to bring in Ozuna indicates they are perhaps setting themselves up for a pending trade of an outfielder already on the team.

        Plus, I don’t believe the Indians would trade their best player for a pitcher who is coming off Tommy John surgery.

      • Michael E

        I agree with Tom. Greene and Lodolo are must-have holds and NO-TRADE material.

        I am fine trading Senzel and India or Winker and India, along with lower prospect or two.

    • VaRedsFan

      Love it Tom….fully on board with what you said.
      The Reds already passed on Yelich for Senzel trade rumor…..then the following year It was Realmutto for Trammell trade that never materialized.
      It’s time for the Reds to start going for it on 4th down instead of punting all the time.
      Lindor for Senzel…..YES

  19. donny

    I would make that trade in a Millisecond .

    Senzel – can’t stay on the field
    India – where is he going to play except lf or rf in 2021 . Although he could be a better option than Winker and Aquino but not until 2021.
    Mahle – Has not showed me he can be a 3 starter and he is 6th starter on the team now.

    Indians would get a 3B, 2b, 5th starter and a lower level prospect or Jameson Hannah, or Jose Siri and they can move there good prospect Nolan Jones to first base.

    Reds get Lindor for 2 years with Garcia waiting in the wings along with Stephenson, Green, Lodolo .

    • Curt

      If Senzel “can’t stay on the field” or is “notably injury prone”, why would the Indians want him?

      • VaRedsFan

        Because the Indians want Senzel, or there is no trade. They have stated as much

    • Mitch

      Can u imagine the lineup for the Reds if this trade happens:
      Lindor, Votto, Suarez, Moose, Akiyama, Winker, AA, and Barnhart with Galvis, Van Meter, Blandino, and Irvin on the bench plus a staff of Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Miley, and Desco as the SP.
      sounds like a winning combo to me. I say go for it

  20. Redleg4life

    If we can do the trade without giving up lodolo Greene or senzel then yeah do it. Otherwise wait and watch Lindor value drop and the Indians more desperate to get any value for him around the trade deadline. I would wait until India winker Ervin and Galvis maybe Mahle too can get it done and for me that time is when the Reds are in the thick of the race for the division next July. Also I don’t think I the Indians will trade Lindor before 2020 starts.

  21. citizen54

    The Reds already made a blunder by signing Moustakas a 2-3 fWAR guy playing out of position and blocking India who had a wRC+ of 137 in AA to a four year deal. Why not make a bigger blunder by trading away the future for 2 years of a 4 fWAR SS? Even with 32 HRs last year Lindor was a 114 wRC+, which placed him 14th among shortstops last year. Yes he does provide more value on defense but he is not someone I would sell the farm for, especially not for just 2 years.

    The Dodgers were smart enough to say “no.” Something tells me the Reds are going to be suckers again.

    • Kenny G

      “The Reds already made a blunder by signing Moustakas a 2-3 fWAR guy playing out of position and blocking India who had a wRC+ of 137 in AA to a four year deal.”

      Since when can you compare MLB stats with AA stats? Brandon Larson was All-World at AAA but couldn’t hit a lick in the majors. Moose is a proven commodity, India has a chance of making the majors and them *maybe* putting up the numbers Moose already has in the past.

    • Sean D

      Lindor is better than a 4 WAR player, baseball reference has him as 5-6 and he plays elite defense. Lindor also missed some time and still recorded a 4.7 bWAR if I’m not mistaken. Lindor is a career .840 OPS player who has been even best the past 3 years who plays elite defense can run a little bit and is a great great clubhouse guy from what we hear. Lindor is the best shortstop in the game undoubtedly and a top 10 player in the game.

    • Sean D

      I would also like to say even by fan graphs he hasn’t recorded a 4 WAR since his rookie season, every other season has been above that even with occasional injuries. He is projected for 6

  22. TR

    It’s obvious Jim Bowden still holds some sentiments for the Reds. Baseball, with a game almost everyday, combined with the traveling, is a long grind for six months, and IMO Senzel is out of position in the outfield where I don’t see him staying injury free. Shortstop is a key to a winning team and Lindor is the current best. Just don’t give up any more starting or prospective starting pitchers other than Mahle.

  23. Barry

    If the Reds get Lindor, realistically he wouldn’t be here two full years. At least not if they plan on getting anything in return before he signs elsewhere for big bucks.

    • VaRedsFan

      What they are getting in return, is a realistic shot at winning a championship, which is all they can really ask for. If you think Senzel and Galvis will get you to the next level, you are mistaken.

  24. GR8PNT2

    Lindor is not only the best SS in the game but one of the top 6 players in MLB. The injury jinx which keeps following Senzel plus the headache/dizziness issue is a great concern. India has not exactly torn it up and he is coming out of college not HS. Mahle has continually shown he is not ready to give his team better than a 50-50 chance when he pitches. Winker has been “promising” since he came on the scene. Ervin still hasn’t learned to throw the ball to the cutoff man. Personally I want to see more of AA. I don’t know enough about Galvis to venture an opinion other than good teams have good backups. I do not want Green or Lodolo included. Lindor is a known quantity, none of the others mentioned are, hence 90+ losses and losing seasons. I would also hope that Cleveland would have to include a player other than Lindor if it takes three or more Reds to complete the trade. Lindor is better than any of the outfield free agents available leading me to be confused regarding the opposition to MO.

    • GR8PNT2

      It will not bother me at all if Senzel is in CF on opening day. And, I see no reason to believe he will not be a very good CF with experience. As a side note, neither he nor Suarez can play SS. India is not blocked by anyone because he hasn’t excelled at the minor league level. Thanks for the give and take.

    • Colorado Red

      Lindor is NOT the best SS in the game.
      Trevor Story is.
      The ops+ is just as high.
      The WAR is over 2 higher.
      The glove is outstanding.
      I would rather trade to Story then Lindor.
      The Indian’s want too much, just say NO>

      • Indy Red Man

        I know its legal in Colorado but c’mon man? Story road ops was .767.

        Greatest outfielders in MLB history:

        Babe Ruth
        Barry Bonds
        Dante Bichette

        sorry Ted Williams……just don’t measure up sir!

  25. centerfield

    Couple of questions: What would it take to get Story? What will Lindor’s value be at the summer trade deadline?

    • Redleg4life

      that is exactly what I want to know. How much less will Lindor cost at the deadline.

      • VaRedsFan

        If Lindor is gone from Cincy after 2 years, why would we try to get him for only 1.5 years? You need to maximize the short period of time you got him by having him as long as you can. It’s still going to cost a ton of prospects whenever he is traded.

  26. Sliotar

    @Colorado Red

    A couple of key differences between Lindor (definitely available) and Story (maybe available, maybe not…especially if Arenado is traded. Someone might have to be face of the Rockies).

    Lindor projected at 6.0 WAR by Steamer
    Story projected at 3.9 WAR by Steamer

    Story- home/away splits last 2 seasons
    Home – 144, 141 (wRC+)
    Away – 110, 98

    Lindor hasn’t been less than 114 wRC+, home or away, last 2 seasons

    Someone has to be real sure the Coors Field effect isn’t playing into Story’s career numbers … even if he can be traded for.

    • Indy Red Man

      Last 3 seasons Story’s road ops was .758. Josh Van Meter’s was .735 last year. End of silly discussion. Lindor is a superstar. Story is a beneficiary.

  27. Don

    If this trade is made as Bowden outlines and Reds do not reach at least the NLCS in 2020 and win World Series in on of next 2 years trade is a failure and Reds will not have a chance again until near end of decade.

    • VaRedsFan

      And if they don’t do the trade, and still lose 85 games per year for the next 6 years, we can all sit around and say, should have traded Senzel for Yelich, Trammell for Realmutto, or Senzel for Lindor. Sometime you have to go for it instead of punting all the time.

      • greenmtred

        I have to point out that none of the excellent players you mention brought the championship to their teams in 2019. It’s probably also the case that Senzel or Trammel alone would not have gotten the trades done. I don’t disagree about going for it, but I think it’s important to be judicious. When we’re considering a trade, we’re not just adding a player, we’re losing others.

  28. Paul Tackett

    Why would we want to trade away so much of our future for a player we will only have for two years. Believe me, we will not be able to pay him enough to keep him. We’ll have two years where we will be very competitive but there’s definitely no guaranty we will will a championship. Then what do we have, we just spent how many years of losing records. Why not move Senzel back to the infield. To say shortstop and maybe trade a fewer prospects for a up grade at catcher with power, maybe some bullpen help. Let the outfielder we just signed play center field. Lets be one of those teams that is competitive ever year not just two years. How many fans will be complaining in three years when we where great for two years and then we’re looking to trade again and don’t have the prospects to do it. I’m not good with trading away our future for two years of maybe. Just a thought.

    Watch your language. Only warning.

    • VaRedsFan

      Senzel doesn’t play SS, and has been deemed (not by me) by talent evaluators, to not be an option at SS.
      Which power hitting catcher are you trying to acquire. Maybe check the catcher tree out back to see if any are growing on them.

  29. Steve D

    Too rich for my blood. IMO if the Reds can make this work without giving away any MLB starters or starting pitchers or Tyler Stephenson or Jose Garcia I say do it. IMO I would tell Cleveland pick whatever four players you want in our entire organization outside of Suarez, Gray, Castillo, Iglesias, Senzel, Winker, Garrett, Lorenzen, Garcia (minors), Stephenson (minors). The reason I say take Garcia and Stephenson off the table is that we will need a SS in two years when Lindor walks. Also will need a catcher probably next year in Stephenson. With this scenario Cleveland could take: Hunter Greene, Jonathan India, Aristides Aquino and Nic Lodolo. I think that haul would get it done. That is quite the haul for Cleveland. Also that does not affect our team short term at all and we can go all in for 2020 and 2021. Sign a top end reliever and maybe Ozuna and this is a World Series contender.

    • Hanawi

      Greene and Lodolo? I wouldn’t trade either one for 2 years of anybody, much less both of them. Way too rich. I’d try to get them to bite on a deal led by Winker and India with either Mahle or Santillan as the third piece depending on whether they want future value or major league readiness. Winker has outperformed Senzel so far, but can’t play center, so can be extraneous. Could be a LF/DH in the AL, though, where he can maximize value. Anything more than that, I’m going to pass.

      At that point, I’d try to pry Seager from LA, perhaps using Iglesias as the key piece.

  30. Steve Schoenbaechler

    I think we all understand that the Indians are either going to look for prospects or pitching, or both.

    With us going after Lindor, it would be a question of “how much do we want to win now”.

    If we want to win now, we are going to give us prospects and/or pitching. If not now, we are going to keep the prospects and pitching.

    I could see the Reds pulling the trigger on anything to either extreme or something in the middle.

    I would hope we just play it smart. Trade away what we have “plan B’s” for. For example, I could see us trading away Senzel, since we now have Shogo we could plug in there.

    Or, trade from a position of excess. We have a lot of OF’s.

    Or, trade from a position of “a player being blocked”. For, instance, people are talking that India is blocked. If we have a player who is blocked, trade him off while we can get some value for him.

    Good arguments can be made for several to keep or trade away. For instance, I love Senzel’s style of play and his upside. But, you can’t just “throw away” the injuries.

    I love Winker. I can understand people consider him a platoon player. But, most pitchers we will face are right handers.

    Another important factor, do we have what the Indians are looking for? Are we willing to give up what they are looking for?

    • Indy Red Man

      As for Winker…..I think he really had a subpar year if you look inside the numbers.

      Road ops of .722, average dropped from .299 to .269 and obp dropped from .405 to .357. It seemed like a steady stream of 4-3 groundballs instead of shooting it the other way. It felt like the only he went the other way last year was on a HR to left. Plus it takes a triple to score him from 2nd, but RLN generally gives him a pass for some reason.

      • VaRedsFan

        Agree Indy…too many ground balls. He hardly ever pulled the ball in the air. Took zero advantage of the so-called juiced ball.

  31. Indy Red Man

    Lindor makes nearly 700 plate appearances a year. Senzel has a season high of 119 games as a pro. I keep hearing Lindor’s 2 vs Senzel’s 6. Well Lindor is a much better ball player then Senzel and you’ll most likely get 100 more games out of him in the next 2 years. Thats a full season for Nick! Not to mention Lindor is a SS and elite offensive/defensive shortstops don’t grow on trees. Shogo shows up everyday too. The biggest part of ability is availability!

    Also….nearly everyone on RLN wants to write off Aquino for some reason? Or semi-bury him in a platoon. Patience grasshoppers! Please!!!

    • Big Ed

      Agreed on Aquino.

      Do you realize that Jesse Winker, who is the same age as Lindor, has a higher career OPS and OPS+ than Lindor? Lindor had a .335 OBP last year; he led the league in making outs the year before. He is very good, but he is not Honus Wagner.

      • Doug Gray

        He’s not Honus Wagner, but he’s also the best shortstop in baseball. So let’s not get carried away with trying to run down exactly how good he is. He’s among the best players in the entire game.

    • greenmtred

      Indy, I don’t write off Aquino, but I do say that we don’t have enough unconflicting evidence to count on him. He was great for one month and awful for one month, and uninspiring in his minor league career. He clearly has lots of raw talent, though.

  32. Streamer88

    I wonder if the Lindor trade is effectively agreed upon but the Reds need Senzel to pass a physical thus waiting for his rehab to progress enough?

  33. Rod Andrews

    I’d rather trade Aquino than Senzel. No way should we let Lodolo go, even at the expense of Greene
    India is expendable for a big enough trade,as well as Mahle. Another player with Lindor would be nice for that much.

  34. Matt WI

    I’d do this, or something close to it- I understand the thinking behind what the Reds give up long term, but I’m starting to look at this way: Unless the front office truly has a methodology for making them a strong team more often than not (a la the Cards), then yes, preserve the Nick Senzels of the world.

    Otherwise, there comes a time when you have to seize a window when it’s there, understanding the other side of that window is going to hurt a little. Act while Votto still has a little something to give. But given what the last several seasons have looked like, I’m ready for the Reds to be aggressive and give it a try. Results not certain, but certainly better than what we’ve been looking at.