If you missed the news yesterday, it’s been reported that the Cincinnati Reds and Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama have agreed to a 3-year deal. Nikkan Sports was the first to report the agreement, just before noon. Things were initially unconfirmed, and there were some contradictory reports that the deal wasn’t yet done and the price was rising, but after a few hours other sources confirmed the agreement.

Adding Shogo Akiyama to an already crowded outfield leaves open plenty of unanswered questions. How does he fit in with Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, and a group of about five other potential outfielders vying for playing time? The Reds believe he can play around the outfield according to what General Manager Nick Krall told the Cincinnati Enquirer back at the Winter Meetings.

Trying to figure out exactly where and how Akiyama fits in is one question. But the other question is how he will perform – particularly at the plate – when he is on the field. As was noted last week when discussing possible comparisons, there have only been five players from Japan make the transition to Major League Baseball in the last decade that have gotten 200 total plate appearances in the majors. One of those players happens to be Kenta Maeda, who is a pitcher. That leaves just four players who are actual hitters. Nori Aoki had 3044 plate appearances and hit .285/.350/.387 as a Major Leaguer. Shohei Ohtani is next on the list with just 792 total plate appearances. Munenori Kawasaki and Tsuoshi Nishioka are the other two players and the both struggled with the transition, both slugging under .300.

The decade prior saw more players make the move from Japan to the Major Leagues, but there’s some small issues with trying to make a comparison between those players and the players today. The first big issue is that prior to the 2011 season the baseball in Japan was a bit different than the one that’s been used ever since. The ball moves differently now than it used to.

The other big issue is simply that there really aren’t many players to look at who have come over recently. But since players also go from the US to Japan, it is a little bit easier to at least have some statistical models to use. Of course, stat models miss plenty of things – such as the difference in how the game itself is approached between the two leagues. Pitchers throw harder in the United States as a whole. And in Japan pitchers tend to work backwards far more often than pitchers in the US.

With that said, the statistical models are as good as we’ve got right now. Clay Davenport had the Cincinnati Reds projected as the winners of the National League Central last week with his projections for 2020. He’s not just projecting Major League players, though – he also has translations and projections for players in Japan. His projections for Shogo Akiyama moving forward certainly look good. Davenport has projections for the outfielder over the next six seasons, but let’s focus on the next three since those are the ones that will take place in a Cincinnati Reds uniform.

Last season with Seibu saw Shogo Akiyama hit .303/.392/.471 with 31 doubles, four triples, and 20 home runs in 143 games. It was his worst offensive season in the last three years. At least in 2019, his home ballpark played as hitter friendly. Great American Ballpark isn’t quite as hitter friendly as the reputation suggests – but it is power friendly. It boosts power, but suppresses all other types of offensive output.

Rotowire’s Senior Editor Jeff Erickson had two different projections last night on twitter. His first one, after some feedback, felt like it was too friendly – in particular with the power – and he adjusted things.

1st Projection .298 .382 .478 23 104 73
2nd Projection .281 .366 .443 18 89 66

Now, the runs and RBI totals don’t really matter much in the projection. Where he will hit, and how the players around him perform matter quite a bit in how those turn out. What does matter is the slash line and the home runs – those are things that he has control over. The first projection would be very good. That’s an .860 OPS. The second projection isn’t quite as good, but an .809 OPS would still be an above-average bat for an outfielder.

For now, those are the projections we have to look at. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS have not come out for Shogo Akiyama (or the 2020 Reds). The Marcel Projection System that’s available at Baseball Reference is only showing up for players who have been in the Major Leagues before, so there’s nothing available here, either. The projections we do have, though, seem to suggest that Akiyama is going to be an above-average hitter.

77 Responses

  1. RedsFan11

    My New Years wish is for one of these 8 outfielders to really break out and have an MVP Caliber season.

    Thanks Doug and all the writers at RLN for keeping us well informed for another year of Reds baseball! May 2020 bring us joy again!

  2. AirborneJayJay

    Batting leadoff Akiyama will bring us a .255/.335/.435/.770 slash line. Good thing runs scored and rbi’s don’t matter, especially for a leadoff hitter.

  3. Don

    really appreciate all the articles and data on the Reds.

    Those numbers would be an above average batter in the lead off (above average across all metrics) or #2 spot (Above average on all metrics but HRs) in any MLB lineup.

    His salary is to much to be a part time/backup player. This is an every day starter.

    Assuming Shogo will be an everyday player based on these projections and salary.
    If he is not, then this signing would be a bust for the Reds.

    There are just to many OF bodies and not enough in the IF to make a good balanced 14 man offensive team.

    Something else has to be in the works for changes to the roster.

  4. Steven Ross

    When Steven was right….when Steven was wrong! Thought he’d go to the Padres.

  5. Bromleyjake

    This is the kind of report I was waiting on to get excited about Shogo. The projections seem to be expecting him to be an everyday player with over 600 at bats. I certainly hope that is the case.

    • Champ Summers

      the projection is based in if he gets 600 PA. It’s not predicting that he gets the AB’s

  6. donny

    I project a .281 ave , 14 hrs, .344 obp , 81 runs , .435 slg

  7. Tom Mitsoff

    So far this offseason has been successful, no other way to characterize it. One more impact bat and it will rank among the best ever for the Reds.

    It certainly is reasonable to project Shogo as an above-average major league hitter, based on how he has dominated in Japan.

    • Old-school

      I agree with Tom. This has been a successful off-season and one befitting a small market team with a FO that has its focus on a “winning arc”. The SP is better. The offense is better. The budget is balanced for the long term and prospect capital and young emerging players are still part of the core.

      I don’t want an “all-in” on 2020/21. The Reds are still a draft and develop first team. No can predict what will happen in the NL but it’s fair to say the the Cards, Cubs will be formidable and the #1/2 wildcards will come from the NL east as the Nats/Phil’s/ Braves are all very good. The Reds need to see what happens with injuries and who breaks out and who regresses. Didi Gregorious would have been the short term answer at SS but that ship sailed.

      The Reds cannot afford all – in contracts at the highest tiers- $100 million plus over 5+ years. They also can’t bankrupt their prospect capital for rentals such that the farm system is barren in 2022 , their free agent rentals are elsewhere and rebuilds and losing become the new normal. If the Reds are 1 player away come July and are sitting in first in the NL, then revisit their options.

    • AirborneJayJay

      Yes, it has been successful to a point. More work to be done. The job is not finished by any stretch. Some offense has been added to the mix, sure. But they are players they settled for, and not ones they originally targeted. No cornerstones acquired, just more bricks for the wall. The Reds have one cornerstone, Suarez. That’s it offensively.
      But the Reds are still staring in the face of the reality that Freddy Galvis is the starting SS. That has to be rectified before February.
      They still have not addressed any bullpen needs. Two more “good” relievers need to be added. And not through the minor league deals with invites to spring training. Still a few good relievers are available on the free agent market. Reds have enough surplus to start to trade for a reliever or 2.
      Phase 2 of the winter has to begin soon. Extensions. All on the pitching side.
      Castillo? DeSclafani? Bauer? Lorenzen?

    • JayTheRed

      The guys over at MLB Network who were talking about Shogo were saying even if this guys on base skills drop 40 points or so. He would still be a quality hitter in the major leagues. I’m going to predict this for him.

      .282 BA, .370 OBP, 16 HR,

      With him having a little speed as well I’ll give him around 15 SB too

      • MBS

        I’m with you on that prediction. If so, he fills in that hole we’ve had at leadoff for a long time.

  8. GhostRunner

    Runs, runs, runs. If I counted right, the Reds lost 28 games last year by one run. Should be interesting to see how much difference Shogo and Moose make to the Reds offence.

  9. Tom

    If the Reds can’t make an additional upgrade at SS and assuming we don’t add any more position players, is Galvis the best in-house option. Defensively, absolutely.
    But, offensively?

    If everyone could play their best position on the field AND we wanted the best offensive lineup with the current roster, where would you field everyone? Assume there’s no legacy issues with positional moves – simply the right players in the right seats on the bus.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Good question. One factor to consider is that they currently have three players whose best position is third base: Moustakas, Suarez and Senzel.

      The only player whose best position is shortstop is Galvis. Even Blandino is best suited for second base.

      • Tom

        Great point!

        I don’t see Suarez making the transition back to SS athletically. Should Moose and Suarez flip? Moose had limited experience at 2B and that’s more than Suarez. I really hope ego’s stay out of the decision making process.

        On Senzel, maybe the ship has sailed (or never existed) on him playing SS. I know some people thought he was fine in his limited minor league experiment and believe he can absolutely play it. And, others don’t think he can ever do it. I’m not sure I understand the evidence for either perspective but I’m sure the Reds do.

        Of course, maybe a very well designed, metric based platooning in the OF is the best way to maximize Shogu, Senzel, Winker, Aquino, and Erwin’s performance and that makes up for Galvis’ offense at SS. His defense should be strong.

        In the minors, I hope the Reds are thinking right now of trying India at SS.

      • Indy Red Man

        “I don’t see Suarez making the transition back to SS athletically”

        If I’m not mistaken, aren’t the Reds one of the leaders in shifting? Suarez is already playing SS quite often

      • Doug Gray

        I see people bring this up a lot. And I think people miss the entire point of this: When a guy is “playing shortstop in the shift” it’s happening because the team doesn’t expect the ball to be hit there. The team isn’t expecting the guy “at shortstop” to actually need to show the tools or abilities of an actual shortstop. They don’t expect him to need to be able to range far in both directions because they don’t even expect the ball to be hit to that side of the field.

    • Old-school

      I can’t see the reds acquiring an elite SS at this time without bankrupting 2022+.

      I would sign Jose Iglesias to a 2 year 6 million contract with a $1 million team buyout for 2021.

      1.) The Reds don’t have a back up SS if Galvis gets injured. Iglesias is an elite glove who gives the infield a supersub.

      2.) Galvis is a below avg hitter with some pop. But, the big issue with the Reds in 2019 was 1 run losses due to no offense.. David Bell has proven he will rotate/sub/pinch hit within the game.

      With the Reds outfield depth, late inning matchups, and 3 batter lefty rule, Bell needs to be able to pinch hit for Galvis in high leverage late inning situations. If the reds are trailing 3-1 with a runner on and they need a home run , the Punisher pinch hits for Galvis and Iglesias goes to SS. Similarly , a tie game going to extras and Winker or Ervin is needed to pinch hit, Iglesias is perfect to play 2-3 innings+ after the available OF has pinch hit for Galvis. Shogo and Senzel give Bell good outfield defense late in games.

      3.) Iglesias also gives the perfect supersub to start the day game after a night game or get away day on a long road trip to keep the infield rested.

      Iglesias is my 26 th player.

      • Tom

        I like this thinking. It’s a good way to work around lack of offense at SS without losing defense.

      • Bob

        How about Galvis, Mahle, India, and Senzel for Lindor?

      • Doc

        If Galvis is strong defensively but a liability offensively, and since Galvis can play multiple positions in the infield, were the Reds to re-sign Iglesius, why would you not put Iglesius back at SS where he is outstanding defensively, and make Galvis your infield utility guy? I don’t understand how Galvis suddenly became a better option at SS than Iglesius, other than that Galvis is currently on the roster and Iglesius is not.

      • Mike

        We don’t have and will need a backup at SS.
        I think the Reds are holding off on Iglesias until all of the top tier SS options are off the table. and that Lindor, Correa & Seager are all in the mix.
        Still negotiating….
        On that note, I don’t see how Senzel remains a Red if one of those options joins the team.

  10. BK

    I think Akiyama will be a terrific signing–another good piece of the puzzle. He brings exactly what the Reds needed in an outfielder: flexibility to cover all three spots and the ability to get on base. Top it off with decent power and he should be one of the best bargains of the offseason. I see Ervin and Winker platooning in LF. The Reds now have three quality players in Akiyama, Senzel and Aquino to cover the other spots. Aquino is the wildcard, but if he brings more consistent production this year he will be a star–he has potential to be the prototypical RF. The other 40-man roster outfielders are depth pieces. Akiyama will be at the top of the order and play nearly everyday unless Aquino steps up, but if Aquino steps up, the Reds will be thrilled to pay their fourth outfielder 3/~20.

    • David

      in analyzing Aquino and right field, remember that in 2019, Puig and Aquino actually combined for 41 homers for the year (Puig 22, and Aquino 19). It might be tough for Aquino to do that (or he may hit 41 homers or more, with RBI’s and OPS).
      He’s a young guy, and power hitters are ALWAYS streaky. They run hot and cold. Don’t give up on him because he might struggle a little next year.

      Johnny Bench “struggled” in 1971 with “only” 27 homers and a low average, and then bounced back for an MVP season in 1972.

      • JayTheRed

        Here is a question I have. What if Aquino puts it all together and hits a line something like this?

        .260 BA, 25 HR, .320 OBP Does he see more playing time and what happens to the rest of the outfield.

  11. Optimist

    If he gets 600 PAs, almost all leadoff or 2-spot, and has an OBP better than .370, it’s a good deal. Seems to be sound defensively, though I expect the power numbers to come in below these projections. In the words of Dusty, he needs to “clog the base paths.”.

  12. Redsvol

    I am stoked for 2020! I’ll take any of these projections you’ve shown Doug. All show a much better OBP than anyone could reasonable project from the 2019 outfielders. We need someone with plate discipline that will see more pitches and get on base. 2019 team was much too dependent on the homer. go Shogo!

  13. STEVEN

    Now go get a two of the top three relievers left and go for it!

  14. STEVEN

    Only thing except to relievers would be Corey Seager. I would rather have him For alonger term than Lindor for two years. Use some of the overflow of outfielders.

    • Colorado Red

      But for now, Coery, Lindor and Story all are FAs at the end of 2021.
      He would probably be cheaper to resign, but no guarantee of that.

      • Jim H.

        Story & Seager are both 2022 per baseball-reference.com

  15. RedNat

    this complicates the Senzel issue to an extent. it appears that if he wants to be an everyday player for this team it will have to be in the infield. the most obvious position would be shortstop. another option is moving Suarez to first and allowing Nick to move to his natural position at third. yes I realize this puts Votto on the bench but just think how strong our bench would be

    • Dawson

      It definitely complicates things with Senzel. Seems like there has to be a trade coming for a SS. I hope that trade doesn’t include Senzel. I’d rather see Aquino or Winker traded away than Senzel.

      Another option could be Senzel as a pure utility player. They may prapare him to fill in at every infield and outfield position and rotate rest days around. He would get regular at bats and guys would get a day off here and there.

      It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Who knows what can happen with injuries too. Seems like we have great depth everywhere but SS.

      • TR

        I sense a big three-way trade coming up that will center on Senzel, Lindor and Seager with others coming and going. Corey Seager will end up as the Reds shortstop.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        I would not give up Senzel for Seager. I would give up Senzel for Lindor.

      • Marc Parkinson

        I agree and Senzel, for Story I was thinking India, and Winker
        If Col, does not trade Nolan, they are not trading Story, if they do, they might start the rebuild.

      • Still a Red

        I would reluctantly give up Senzel for Lindor now that we have Akiyama…but otherwise, I think Akiyama starts in right until Aquino shows us who he really is. You have to play Senzel if he stays.

      • TR

        I don’t see Senzel/Seager as a one on one. The Reds would probably get, in addition, relief pitching.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Tom, agree. I’d give up Senzel for Lindor, but unless Mike Trout becomes available that’s the only way I’m parting with Senzel. Lindor is a superstar in his prime, that’s why you roll the dice there. Seager is very good, but not on Lindor’s level.

  16. AirborneJayJay

    Lets say on average, the Reds 3 outfielders will get 13 PA’s per game. That is 4 per game with an extra one thrown in. So that will be on average 2,106 PA’s for the outfielders in a season.
    In an ideal world we would want Winker and Senzel to get about 600 PA’s each. But lets say they get 550 each. Akiyama looks to get right at about 500. That is going to leave only about 500 more PA’s for the 4th, 5th and possibly 6th outfielders. For this reason, it looks like Aquino would be better served going to AAA to play everyday instead of getting maybe 10 PA’s a week on the Reds bench. Or maybe as trade bait. Ervin is more suited to that 4th OF/ RH bench bat role. He did well in that role in 2019. With Akiyama now on board, it means a much, much more diminished role for Aquino and Ervin. One of either Aquino or Ervin is now very expendable.

    • AllTheHype

      I wouldn’t give Winker 550 PAs. That would mean about 150-200 PAs against LHP where his slash line is horrific. So on those days he is horrific on both sides of the ball. The roster has much better options against LHP than Winker.

      WInker should get max 350-400 PAs primarily against RHP.

  17. Hotto4Votto

    It has been a nice offseason. Happy about the additions to the team. We are certainly in the mix in the NLC. I don’t think we’re done adding by any means and to “rest on our laurels” at this point would be pre-mature. St. Louis is going to add. Chicago and Milwaukee are still talented and have time to make additions. The last time I checked (a week ago) betting odds the Reds were still behind all three of those clubs to win the NLC.
    I don’t know what Davenport’s track record is, but I believe that Davenport’s projections are very optimistic for 2020. He has Moose being more valuable than he’s been since 2015. He has Votto essentially doubling his value from last season. In fact, of the expected everyday players he only has Aquino taking a step backwards (which is understandable considering his Sept.) It’s very rare that everyone on the team takes a step forward collectively, so I’d take this projection with a grain of salt. I’m sure he has his reasons, but at the end of the day projections are educated guesses and no sure thing. As we saw last year, on paper the Reds should have been about .500 but reality is that they couldn’t quite live up to their on-paper projection.
    With that said, I’d love for these to be right.

  18. SultanofSwaff

    2 reminders on Senzel:
    1. Dick Williams said there’s nowhere on the field they believe he can’t play.
    2. Nick is a better SS than Winker is a CF and everyone seemed cool with that.

    • AllTheHype

      Just because Winker was played way out of position in CF last year doesn’t mean Senzel should also.

      • MBS

        Senzel has been out of position every year. He’s a 3B that plays CF, that played 2B, and dabbled as a SS. Some times Pete Rose has to move to another position to let George Foster get his AB’s. That move came in 75, so maybe a similar move could have a similar result in 20.

        PS i know Senzel is no Rose, in experience or performance. I am just showing that sometimes you have to make the pieces you have fit as well as you can.

      • Colorado Red

        Sparky did ask Pete about the move, and Pete agreed.
        Help get him his first ring.
        I would like to see another ring for the Red’s players.
        3 is not enough.

    • greenmtred

      I’m not sure they were cool with it. I think they had little choice: Desperation is the mother of questionable moves.

  19. Dawson

    Doug, do you think Senzel at SS is still an option? Seems like they passed on that idea before.

  20. Redfan15

    I posted this on the other story but this discussion is the active one-

    If a 3 team deal including the dodgers has any legs, do we (RLN) think that Winker and India to Cleveland while receiving Seager from LA would be enough to get it done? If so, that would be a no-brainer IMO. 4 years of Mouse at 2b, 6 years of Suárez at 3B and 3 years of Seager at SS effectively block India all the way around (I know he’s not a SS). 3 years of Shogo would profile similarly to the next 3 years of of Winker (better defense, hopefully the same OBP and power numbers). Would be able to keep Senzel long term in CF and have Shogo/Ervin/Aquino in the corners and have a lineup that’s competitive everywhere besides C. Aquino would still be a ? in RF.

    Some lineup of Votto-Mouse-Seager-Suárez backed by Senzel-Shogo-Aquino with Castillo-Gray-Bauer-Miley-Disco with a battery of Barnhart/Casali would seem to be a pennant winning lineup. Would probably need another bullpen arm (Stammen, Hudson, etc) but adding Seager would still give us plenty of payroll room.

    What say you?

    • Old-school

      Seager is only 2 years- not 3 unless I am reading wrong. I would agree if the reds controlled seager in 20-23. 2 years is a longish rental in exchange for core young talent controlled through 2025+.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Correct. Two years for Seager.

    • Hotto4Votto

      I’m thinking a three-team La/Cle/Cin is probably going to happen with us getting Seager. With that said, I’d hate to give up Winker in this deal. I’d rather give up more prospects. IMO, Winker is our best OF’er (offensively) at this point. Senzel may have more upside, but for a team “going for it” it’s hard to deal away one of your better offensive players who’s set up to help out now. If the Reds end up trading Winker I think they have to go out and sign another OF’er (one who’d be much more expensive and not much, if any, of an upgrade). Relying on Senzel, Akiyama, and Aquino as your top 3 outfielders seems awfully risky as all three will enter the season with big question marks.

      I’d propose India, Mahle, Siani for Seager. On the trade calculator that’s about as even of value as you can get. Dodgers get 58.30 in trade value and Reds receive 57.40 in trade value. I think losing Mahle (with Lodolo on the way, and hopefully some untapped upside with DeLeon) is much easier to stomach than losing Winker.

      • Optimist

        Long term prospect projections are obviously unreliable, but I wonder if the tough player to lose in that deal is Siani. Seems he may have been a part of the reason they felt OK letting Trammell go, and while Mahle and India have longer pedigrees, CF is the premium position of that group. Have to go look, but does the trade calculator have higher value for Siani than Siri?

      • Hotto4Votto

        Yes it values Siri slightly more at 6.6 compared to Siani’s 4.2. That likely is a reflection of proximity. Siani may edge Siri in defense by a little bit, but Siri likely carries more raw power.
        For the Reds, in this scenario where they keep Senzel in CF for the foreseeable future, they’d still have other CF options on the way, and ahead of Siani in minor league development. Stuart Fairchild, TJ Friedl, and Siri all project as capable of playing CF. Doug’s most recent rankings has Fairchild #7, Siri #8, Friedl #11, and Siani #12. I’m sure the Reds would be amenable to the Dodgers taking their pick of those 4 to facilitate the trade as they all seem to have similar value at this point.

    • Colorado Red

      For Seager, I would think Senzel would be enough. In looking a baseball trade values, Senzel with worth a bit more then Lindor (I am skeptical of this site).

      • Indy Red Man

        If we got Seager then they could play Like A Rock when he comes up. Turn The Page if he makes an error. Flyball to the track in April in Wrigley…..Against The Wind

  21. Tom Mitsoff

    Reds have signed righthanded relief pitcher Tyler Thornburg to a minor league contract with spring training camp invitation.

    • CP

      That’s a good low cost/high upside move. I would expect a couple more of those before ST.

    • AirborneJayJay

      Definitely a Boddy resurrection project since it mentioned he had excellent spin rates.
      He was good at one time.

  22. Joey

    I love the off-season moves and am optimistic but if the Reds want to win it all they are going to need to make another big move. If you look at teams like the Astros and Nationals, they have at least 5-6 guys who have an OBP north of 350 and usually at least one guy on the .400 range. The Reds had Votto, Winker, and Suarez and all three barely made it. Moose probably isn’t going to get there, Senzel will have to increase his OBP by about 40 points to get there. Let’s say Akiyama is north of .350. We are banking on a big increase in Senzel, and praying that Votto, Suarez, and Winker out perform what they did last year. I think we are going to need one more bat that’s going to be closer to .400 than .350 to get us to the promised land.

  23. jon

    isn’t galvis good as or better than Igleasias?

    • DrunkenViking

      Iglesias has slight edge in WAR last 4 years for what it’s worth.
      Galvis WAR
      2016 1.2
      2017 1.1
      2018 2.3
      2019 1.6
      2016 1.7
      2017 1.4
      2018 2.2
      2019 1.5

  24. Steve

    I keep reading different sites to find out is the signing of Akiyama official or not ? And if so , what are the reported terms ?

    • Doug Gray

      It’s not official. He’s still got to come to Cincinnati and get a physical, then sign the contract.

  25. Steve

    Thanks Doug because early reports of 3 yrs $15 M were later disputed then reports of possibly $20 M and then maybe bidding was still going on between several teams and I have been searching ever since to see if anything was finalized … love this site .. you do a great job !!

  26. Old-school

    Happy New year and 2020 to Doug and all Reds fans. Go Reds.

  27. RedEd

    I’m excited about next year. As questionable as people make galvis and barnhart seem, they both won games for the reds last season. I would like to see more depth added in the bullpen including someone on deck for raisel Iglesias. ID even be adding him to trade packages. He cannot have half as bad of a season as he had last year.

  28. Indy Red Man

    I’m excited, but hate to see my boy JVM get left behind. I like him! Guess he’ll go back down to Lville and provide depth. You don’t want a promising young hitter to rot on the bench. If we can get 2 quality relievers now….atleast one of which is LH!!!

    • Redleg4life

      Totally agree. I do like Josh VanMeter and it is disappointing that he won’t get his opportunity to play. We really need another lefty or two.

  29. Dawson

    I, too, am disappointed that JVM is getting left behind. You never know what can happen with injuries though.