Free agency is now upon us. The Cincinnati Reds, as currently constructed, project for the 2020 season according to ZiPS to be in that 82-85 win range. That’s a good place to start. But it’s also not likely to be enough to make the playoffs. And that is the Reds stated goal for 2020 – as it should be. They’ve reportedly got plenty of money to spend, too.

We’ve already taken a look at options among the position players on the free agent market. Today we’re going to move to the mound and focus on the starting pitching that could be available to the Reds on the market.

Before diving into who is available and could fit, let’s take a quick look at what Cincinnati already has. At the top of their rotation they’ve got two 2018 National League All-Stars in Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. Behind them they’re going to have former Cy Young contender and former All-Star Trevor Bauer. The fourth spot in the rotation is going to go to Anthony DeSclafani. He’s coming off of a 2019 that saw him post a 3.89 ERA in 166.2 innings over 31 starts. The final spot would seem to be there for the taking. Tyler Mahle would be the front runner for the spot with no acquisition.

The unlikely top of the rotation options

While we can all dream of having three, or even four potential aces, it doesn’t seem likely that the Reds are going to be able to go out and sign Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Hyun-Jin Ryu given what it will likely take to get them. But let’s dare to dream for a second.

Fresh off of their World Series match up, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are clearly the top two starters on the market. Cole led the American League with a 2.50 ERA in his 212.1 innings pitched. He also led the league with an absurd 326 strikeouts – giving up just 142 hits along the way. Strasburg wasn’t quite as good. He led the National League in wins with 18, and in innings with 209.0. His ERA was 3.32 on the season and he struck out 251 batters. He was dominant in the playoffs, too – allowing just eight earned runs in 36.1 innings (1.98 ERA).

Landing either of these two pitchers would unequivocally put the Reds rotation at or near the top of Major League Baseball. But while the team does seem to have plenty of money to spend – these kinds of moves just seem like something so far out of where Cincinnati has gone in the past that it seems like a needle in the proverbial haystack.

While not quite on par with those two, Hyun-Jin Ryu is probably still in that top tier ahead of the next group. He’s had some problems staying on the mound since coming to the United States. But when he’s been on the mound he’s been awfully good. He’ll enter free agency with a career 2.98 ERA. It’s been even better the last two seasons – posting a 2.21 ERA in 44 starts and 265.0 innings between 2018 and 2019. The lefty has just gone to the next level the last two years by cutting his walk rate down to elite levels. With his age, and his history with missing time, he’ll likely cost significantly less than Strasburg or Cole, but will still likely be a high-dollar signing.

The more likely middle of the rotation options

If the Reds are looking for a solid option to round out the rotation, there are plenty of options on the market. It may come down to how much money they want to commit to starting pitching versus some of their other needs. The old saying is that you can never have too much starting pitching. And it holds true in just about every case. As things stand right now, 1-4 in the Reds rotation all look strong. It’s that final spot where the questions arise. You can see the entire list of free agents

Dallas Keuchel

Cincinnati was linked for a time last offseason to Dallas Keuchel. He’ll hit the market for the second consecutive season. This time a year older, but with fewer innings on his arm than the previous offseason thanks to Major League Baseball’s strange offseason when it comes to non-elite free agents. Once he signed with Atlanta after the draft, he made 19 starts and was better than he had been the previous season with Houston. He posted a 121 ERA+ in his 112.2 innings pitched. The former All-Star would likely be a big upgrade to the starting five in Cincinnati given his history and expectations. His 3.75 ERA would have been third best among the Reds starters. Unlike the rest of the group, he doesn’t miss bats. Instead he relies on tons of ground balls and keeping the ball in the park.

Jake Ororizzi

He hasn’t had a breakout season to this point in his career – at least not on the surface. But his 2019 season very well could have been just that. The 29-year-old right-handed starter went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA for the Minnesota Twins this season over his 30 starts. He only threw 159.0 innings – but he was quite good when he was out there. His 131 ERA+ is well above-average, and he was an All-Star for his efforts in 2019 with the Twins. He’s going to hit free agency with a career ERA of 3.88. His 131 ERA+ in 2019 was easily a career best. Odorizzi’s been healthy throughout his career, making at least 28 starts every season since his first full season in the Majors back in 2014.

Cole Hamels

Left-handed pitcher Cole Hamels is hitting free agency at age 36. He’s coming off of a solid season with the Cubs where he made 27 starts and threw 141.2 innings with a 3.81 ERA. That’s pretty much in line with where he’s been at over the last five seasons (3.72). There’s age working against him, but that might also mean that signing him won’t require 4+ years to bring him on board, either. He misses bats and generally has kept the ball in the park.

Madison Bumgarner

Another big name could be Madison Bumgarner. He’s not quite what he used to be, but he still found plenty of success in 2019 for the Giants. The lefty started 34 games and threw 207.2 innings. He’s a work horse in a day and age where there aren’t many. His ERA was 3.90 while missing plenty of bats and walking next to no one. He’s already thrown 2000 innings in his career if you include the playoffs – and he just turned 30-years-old in August. That’s a lot of mileage on his arm, so if there’s going to be some concern with Bumgarner, it’s probably going to come from that. But if he remains healthy and performs as expected, he’d likely be a big boost to the rotation.

Zack Wheeler

For what feels like the last decade, the Cincinnati Reds have continuously been linked to Zack Wheeler. After bursting int he Majors in 2013 and 2014 with a 3.50 ERA over 49 starts, he missed all of the 2015 and 2016 season. His first season back in 2017 was struggle. But he’s been above-average in the last two years, throwing 377.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA for the Mets. Wheeler misses plenty of bats and he doesn’t walk guys anymore, either. This could be an interesting one to really keep an eye on given how frequently the Reds have been rumored to be interested in acquiring him.

Julio Teheran

The Atlanta Braves turned down their $12M option for Julio Teheran on Monday. That sends the 28-year-old right-handed pitcher to free agency. He’s been an above-average starter for his career – he’ll enter the offseason with a career 110 ERA+ (10% better than league average). In the last two seasons he’s thrown 350.1 innings, allowed 270 hits, and posted a 3.88 ERA (111 ERA+). That’s come with 167 walks and 324 strikeouts. The walks are a little higher than you’d like to see. That’s also an issue that’s only been there for the last two seasons. This is where you could lean on Derek Johnson and Caleb Cotham to see if they believe they can get his control back to where it was prior to 2018.

Michael Pineda

The right-handed pitcher has always been a “stuff” guy. But he’s struggled at times to remain healthy, and get the full potential of that stuff. The 30-year-old missed the second half of 2017 and all of 2018 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. It was his second major arm surgery in his career. He missed 2012 and most of 2013 after having shoulder surgery. But in 2019 it was another issue that kept him off of the mound: He failed a PED test. His suspension was shortened after arguing that while he did take what he said, a diuretic, it wasn’t to mask a performance enhancing drug. Still, he faced a 60-game suspension as a result of the test.

He began serving that on September 7th. That means he will have to continue serving the remainder of it to begin the 2020 season. On one hand, that could give teams a pause as they’ll have to begin the season without him. On the other hand, perhaps it means you could acquire a pitcher coming off of a 114 ERA+ and a 4.01 ERA who walks no one and misses plenty of bats at a discounted price and a shorter-term deal.

The Wild Card Options

While this could be filled up with a lot of options, I’m going to look at a few that jumped out to me. The first would be Alex Wood. Clearly the Reds had interest in him and what he could bring to the table. His 2019 didn’t work out. The talent has always been there. When he’s been healthy, he’s been a well above-average pitcher. I don’t want to dive into this much more – if you are reading here at Redleg Nation, you know about Alex Wood.

Rich Hill

He’s about to turn 40 (March), making him perhaps the oldest pitcher on the market. The left-handed starter has been pretty stinking good for the last five seasons. That is, at least while he’s been able to stay on the mound. And that’s the rub with Hill – he’s rarely made it through a season completely healthy. Outside of 2007 and 2013, he’s never really been able to do it. In 2019 he missed most of April, then he missed half of June, all of July, all of August, and half of September before returning for three starts in September and another one in the playoffs. That could be why he may be able to be brought in, though. While he has stated he’d like to re-sign with the Dodgers, if they aren’t as interested in his return, he’ll need to look elsewhere. Coming off of a 2.45 ERA season with 72 strikeouts in 58.2 innings – if he can remain on the mound, he’d be a rather interesting addition to the team.

Drew Pomeranz

He had a strong four year run from 2014-2017 between Oakland, San Diego, and Boston. He made 81 starts and 55 relief appearances in that span, posting a 3.24 ERA with 506 strikeouts in 499.1 innings. But he really struggled in 2018 with the Red Sox, posting a 6.08 ERA. He signed with the Giants prior to the 2019 season, and he didn’t perform well there, either – at least when it comes to ERA. His ERA was a robust 5.68 in 17 starts and 4 relief appearances for San Francisco, but he struck out 92 batters in 77.2 innings. He simply gave up a ton of home runs and hits along the way.

Still, Milwaukee traded for him at the deadline and he was lights out for the Brewers out of the bullpen. In 26.1 innings he struck out 45 batters and had just eight walks while posting a 2.39 ERA. There’s obviously a difference between the rotation and the bullpen, and his pitch selection did get quite a bit more fastball heavy after the trade – but there could be something worth looking into there as a potential upside play at the back end of the rotation. And if it doesn’t quite work out, well, the bullpen treated him quite well in 2019.

As noted, there are a lot of pitchers out there. Rather than write 10,000 words covering them all, I kept it to 2,000 covering some. The link to MLB Trade Rumors is above if you want to take a look at all of them. You’ll probably be interested in some of the ones that weren’t covered here – especially if you’re looking for middle of the rotation or back end guys.

Photo of Zack Wheeler by slgckgc on flickr and was altered to fit the site. The license can be found here.

45 Responses

  1. CFD3000

    Sure, Cole, Strasbourg or Ryu would be great. But the Reds need offense even more than they need a rotation upgrade. Unfortunately the options for better offense through free agency aren’t great. Maybe Grandal, maybe Castellanos, and you can dream about Rendon. So if there’s going to be a free agent splurge this winter I’d focus on Wheeler, Odirizzi and Bumgarner. Any one of those three raises the rotation even further into top tier status. And if the payroll is going to jump a good bit perhaps that’s where some of those extra dollars could be well spent. Then the FO can start to get creative about trading for a near future stud to play SS or CF.

  2. Redleg4life

    I really like the option of adding a competent starter out of a particularly deep starting pitching class. Of the starters mentioned the most needed and fairly likely to be signed would be Dallas Kuechel. He is a veteran lefty and the Reds need a lefty in the rotation.

  3. Steve Schoenbaechler

    Of course, getting anyone and any position better than who we have right now would be a plus for the team.

    However, it’s the allocation of resources. We need offense, not starting pitching right now. That should be priority.

    If we do get a starting pitcher, just no reclamation projects. At least someone like Roark, bringing him back. I could handle that, I believe.

    • doofus

      Agree, offense is needed, but you always need starting pitching.

  4. GhostRunner

    Bauer’s 6.39 era with the Reds has me concerned.

    • Phil

      Bauer’s ERA over the last 3 seasons is 3.68 which is #35 among qualified starters in MLB. FIP and xFIP rank him a little higher than that.
      His numbers for the entire 2019 season have him at just above average.
      I trust his numbers over the last 1-3 seasons more than the 10 games he started for the Reds.
      The Reds are not likely to get a repeat of his 2018 season, but at worst should have an above-average #3 starter with an ace-level ceiling.

    • Redleg4life

      Baits last few starts for Cindy were solid and I think he was like our bull pen being tired. He should be a solid three hole pitcher for us

  5. Bob Purkey

    Roark or Wood on a “prove it” contract.

    However, have to keep in mind that Bauer will probably only be in Cincy for 1 year and would have to fill that spot next year. If that is the Reds’ mindset, I would focus on Wheeler, since Jim Maloney, Bob Purkey, Jim O’Toole or Joey Jay are not available any longer. . .?

  6. Ed

    Hedging bets on Bauer or Mahle hitting their stride- I’d totally add a top tier arm to strengthen the rotation. It doesn’t always work that way- Greinke struggled with the Astros after the trade last year. Bauer struggled here…. if you have Gray and Castillo with another powerhouse, and Bauer as your number 4, you have an awesome rotation ready for playoffs. Bauer was a number 3/4 starter in Cleveland anyway. Seems unrealistic to assume he’d be much more than that here.

    • Pete

      Bauer has ace stuff but…his control will desert him. I’m still trying to figure out how a guy with his stuff struggles so badly. One thing I observed is he shakes off a lot of the catcher’s signs. Maybe he should just relax and pitch what is called for? So far the trade with Cleveland is another bad one. The onus is now on Trevor Bauer, is this all there is?

      • GhostRunner

        I’ve wondered if he might be better off not using 6 different pitches. Might be better to just use his best 3 or 4?

      • Reaganspad

        Why does he keep calling me meat?

        I wonder the same thing. You go all DJ on him coach

      • Redleg4life

        I don’t think our puig trade hurt us all that much and Baur should have a strong 2020. The only problem is that he is a free agent after the 2020 season so we should sign Kuechel or Ordirizzi to add insurance to the rotation.

  7. Jim t

    Sign DiDi for SS, bring back Wood for a year, move Senzel to 2nd and trade for Marte.

    • Bob Purkey

      I like it. . .Keep Barnhart and Casali for a year until Stephenson is ready.

    • Colorado Red

      I go for Yasmani.
      Our catchers are not cutting in on the hitting side.
      A trade for Marte would be good (no on Betts, to costly for 1 year).
      I would sign Didi.

      • Michael E

        Ketel is probably untouchable right now, so they’re talking Starling who would cost a lot in prospects himself.

    • jon

      sign dickerson.Why trade prospects when the reds can get a Fa. for nothing.

      • JoshG

        I don’t think Dickerson is much of an upgrade, if any

    • A.J. gilman

      That makes the most sense of all previous suggestions!

  8. Justin

    With Mahle and Sims able to fill in the #5 spot and two highly ranked prospects in AAA (though both stumbled last year), I’m guessing they gamble here and not add unless it’s a cheap pickup. Maybe a guy who has lingered and wants to get a chance to prove his worth.

    Money and trade resources for sure need to be allocated to bats first and bullpen second.

    My guess: Jhoulys Chacín on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

    • Colorado Red

      Might make that offer to Wood.

  9. BK

    Assuming the Reds have about $40M to spend, these would be my first two FA targets using mlbtraderumours.com for pricing:

    1. Sign Moustakas for 2 years/$20M to play 2B. 3.2 bWAR represents a huge upgrade over incumbents Peraza (-0.9 bWAR) and VanMeter (0.2 bWAR). 3.9 bWAR upgrade for $10M AAV. Moustakas plugs in as the Reds clean-up hitter just behind Suarez to solidify the middle of our lineup.

    2. Sign Keuchel for 3 years/$39M to round out our starting rotation. His 2019 bWAR of 2.0 extrapolates to 3.3 bWAR over 32 starts. He replaces Mahle (-0.1 bWAR), who has options remaining and provides solid depth at AAA. 3.4 bWAR upgrade for $13M AAV. Keuchel provides a LHP for our rotation and builds on one of the best rotations in the NL. Good starting pitching also helps the bullpen.

    Together, these two moves gain the Reds 7+ wins over the current roster for just $23M. Neither have QO, so no draft picks forfeited. This leaves a good chunk of money to pursue other upgrades:

    – SS: perhaps Gregorius as a FA or Villar in a trade with Baltimore. The Reds remain postured to be opportunistic if the likes of Seager, Story or Lindor become available via trade.

    – C: Signing Grandal at $19M AAV over 4 years is still possible. He’s probably a 3.0 bWAR player (I realize Fangraphs is higher on him). Barnhart (0.6 bWAR) and Casali (1.2 bWAR) are positive contributors. In short, Grandal is probably a 2.0 to 3.0 bWAR upgrade. For an aging catcher may not be the best investment. Also, help is on the way in the form of Tyler Stephenson. The Reds should stay engaged with Grandal, but he may not be the best value for the Reds.

    – Look for opportunistic upgrades to the bench/bullpen. Eric Thames is now a FA. He would provide competition for Aquino in RF and can back up Votto at 1B. Travis Wood in the bullpen?

    • Bob Purkey

      Can’t see getting Mous for 2 years/$20MM. He has played on 1 year contracts for the last 3 years-don’t believe that he’ll do that again after the recent production. I think that you will have to go to $13/$15MM to get him, at least. Hope you’re right @ $10, but just can’t see it right now.

      • BK

        Jim Bowden @ The Athletic has Moustakas getting 2 years and $24M and Keuchel netting 3 years and $42M. That works out to an outlay of $26M for 2020 and still leaves a good bit of room to address other needs.

        What will affect Moustakas is that he is only the third best 3B and although I think he profiles as the top 2B available, there are about 5 players that can handle 2B that produced within a range of 2-3 WAR last year. In other words, unlike SS or CF, there is ample supply of 2B/3B available to keep Moustakas in the obtainable range again this year.

  10. Bob Purkey

    I wouldn’t mind “helping Boston with their financial issues” by taking JD Martinez off their hands, for some marginal minor leaguers. He is due $60MM over the next 3 years. Have Boston pay $5.0MM and put him in LF. His OBP of .383 and .939 OPS would look good in that lineup. Only 32 years old, but not sure if his contract includes a no-trade or not!

    • doofus

      JD can block trade to 3 teams. I do not know what teams.

      Where does the defensive liability play?

      • Bob Purkey

        He played LF in the NL. As Sparky Anderson said “You can shake a tree and the gloves will fall out, but if you find a bat climb the tree to get it!”

        With the way that guy hits, LF will be just fine.

  11. AirborneJayJay

    As it stands now, the Reds will lose both Bauer and DeSclafani from the rotation after 2020. The Reds need to either sign DeSclafani to an extension, or look to the outside. The Reds could move Robert Stephenson back to the rotation into the #5 spot. He is a better option than Mahle, Sims or Romano. If they go outside the organization this winter, I like Wheeler or Bumgardner.

    • AirborneJayJay

      Unfortunately both Bumgardner and Wheeler were given qualifying offers. I don’t think the Reds will be players for any of the 10 that got the QO.
      Unfortunately too I think the Reds are figuring on Gausman playing a role in next year’s rotation. My confidence level in that move would be low. In this conversation about next year’s rotation Gausman is the wild card. But that will be answered in a couple of weeks at the tender/non-tender deadline.

      • Redleg4life

        I was in the stands the day Kevin Gausman struck out the side with nobody out. He looked impressive now granted he needs a third pitch but he should be a solid back of the rotation starter, or a good long relief.

      • Redleg4life

        Forgot to mention the bases were loaded.?

      • Michael E

        Sadly that is Gausman. He has flashes once a month of being a really good SP. Then they’re are the other 4 or 5 starts and…yuck. He is kinda pricey for a shot-in-the-dark chance he might overachieve. I think I’d rather pass. We’ll get a Gausman that looks good in April and then the wheels fall off in May and June and he has a 5.50 ERA come July.

      • Bob Purkey

        I just can’t see them keeping Gausman at $10MM. Right now he’s a bullpen guy, and MAYBE a #5 starter. There are pitchers that I would pay $10MM for to be a 5th starter, but he isn’t one of them

  12. Tom Mitsoff

    The priority has to be to get the hitting. If one of the names listed above lasts through most of the off-season, he might be willing to sign a 2-year, $20-million deal to become the fifth starter. That would give both the player and the Reds some security. If Alex Wood is still out there at that point, he would probably cost less than that and might be worth another shot.

    • BK

      I agree with hitting being the priority, but I also think the Reds can make the team stronger by going after a starting pitcher–I think there is actually a pretty good supply of starters available this year. With so many potential spots to upgrade the roster: SS, 2B, CF, corner outfield, C, 5th starter, bullpen, bench … it seems the best approach is to look for value where the supply is strongest (2B, starting pitcher, corner OF). The Reds have a number of high floor players, so there really is not a dire need at any one spot. The need is to add some difference makers … lots of options on where they may play on the 2020 roster.

      As for Alex Wood, I would consider going after him for a relief role. Reed should be healthy and will pair nicely with Garrett in the pen, but a third arm would be helpful considering that so many of the elite hitters in the NL Central are left handed.

  13. SultanofSwaff

    Wheeler is the only guy that makes sense to me……maybe Pineda.

    If MLBTR is correct that Castellanos will only get ~$60mil for 4 years I think you have to be the team that snags him.

    Again, adding a 3-4 win player is my litmus test for the front office this winter. Adding two would be a home run. It’s going to be a delicate situation—they need to be ready to strike early in free agency to get their guy but they should keep some prospect capital (India/Mahle/Sims/etc.) on hand in case a trade opportunity materializes.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      I agree with your estimate of a 3 to 4 win player (or two). That has to be the objective. Anything less is just treading water.

  14. doofus

    I could see the Reds signing Pomeranz or Alex Wood; or, if they help the Red Sox with salary relief, say trading for Price and Benintendi, then they will spend dollars to cover Price’s salary the next 3 seasons. And, may be signing a catcher like D’Arnaud. Remember, Tyler Steve is on the horizon.

    Then making a trade for someone like Andres Gimenez who has been supplanted by Ronny Mauricio as their #1 SS prospects (Peraza?). Personally, I think Gimenez is the better SS prospect.

    There: needs at C, SS, CF, starting pitching and capable lefthanded hitter is addressed. Senzel to 2B.

    • doofus

      A nice mix of young guys (under 25), mid range guys 25-28 and older guys 29+.

      A signing of Gregorious and Grandal contributes to an aging roster. No balance. Questionable quality contributions from vets on the downside of their careers.

    • Curt

      Pomeranz would be nice. Need a southpaw. Not so sure d’Arnaud would be much if any of an upgrade. His numbers aren’t that different from Casali and the injury history isn’t pretty. Better framer though. And he can play 1st. Maybe on a one year with a team option. It would give you 3 catchers without having to go to Farmer. Buy some time for Stephenson or trade for someone who’s closer. Not a bad plan B if they can’t get Grandal which I would guess is 50/50 at best.

      I really like Benintendi, and he grew up a Reds fan in Cincy, wonder if he could move to CF? Doesn’t look like he needs to be platooned either if he’s in left. 25 years old. perfect. Can bat 1st or 2nd. I think he’d be a good fit on the Reds.

      Don’t know anything about Gimenez, looks like he’d be a good guy for SS depth. Are you thinking he’s MLB ready?

      Wonder what it takes to get Benintendi?

      Alex Wood? Oy ..if you could get him cheap, he could be useful.

  15. Goat

    Sign Jason Castro, Nick Castellanos,Bumgarner, Hamels, or Wheeler
    and trade Castro and Winker for Tommy Pham. Also, resign José Iglesias and the roster will be competitive.