“When I was a boy, I dreamed of Philip Marlowe,
Took me as his partner, took me as his friend,
Gave me his fedora, gave me shotgun fever,
Took me as his partner, ‘til the end” — Burton Cummings

According to Baseball Reference, the breeze was a light six miles per hour and from an unknown direction that day. It was the first post-season start of Johnny Cueto’s career. Facing Cole Hamels, Johnny Beisbol stood bravely at the ramparts, taking a solo arrow from the bow of Chase Utley, the only earned run in five innings of work. Hamels would surrender nothing for nine, however, and Cueto would take the loss, his post-season history with the Reds—like the wind that day—headed in an unknown direction.

Now, we know how and where the road turned for Cueto, the twist and turns that—like his Luis Tiant-like delivery—took him in one direction, then another. Two years further down that road, he would walk off the hill in San Francisco, wounded after all of 7 pitches. He would spend much of 2013 fighting injury, pitching 61 innings, rushing back as September drew to a close, readying himself for a Wild Card game in Pittsburgh. He wasn’t the pitcher he would become a year later in 2014, when he shouldered the load of a team ravaged by injury, pitching a career-high 244 innings. No. In this, his last October appearance in red, he came into PNC Park without his armor, the lasting image a baseball, slipping, as if in slow motion from his hands, quietly landing on the soft earth that was the mound, amid the roar of the Pirate plebeians.

Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake collectively missed zero starts in 2012. In 2013, I remember National League managers being asked to name their quintessential starting pitchers 1-5. At the top of their rotation was Clayton Kershaw. They named Latos their ideal #2 and Homer Bailey their #3. It’s quite a pitching staff when Mike Leake is your #5.

The Baseball Gods would answer the 2012 season, calling for recompense. When Homer was healthy, Latos would be pitching with an abdominal strain, elbow and knee surgery ruining his 2014. While Cueto was pitching brilliantly, Bailey would succumb to a flexor mass injury late in 2014, eventually succumbing to the Tommy John flu. Those three would never be healthy again at the same time. For all the pitching they had, in the end they didn’t have enough at the very moments they so desperately needed it.

When I was a boy, I believed in the might and the hammer of offense above all else. And why not? Each summer day, the only thing hotter than the artificial playing surface at Riverfront Stadium was the lumber the Great Eight brandished, often beating rivals into submission well before 9 innings had passed. A voyage back to 1970, 1972 and 1973 via rows and rows of numbers and Wins Above Replacement tells us now what my youthful eyes told me every summer and fall: no matter who took the hill for the Reds, they would end the day victorious because they would simply push more runs across the plate due to the sheer will of the everyday eight and their almost mythical bats.

But Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar and Dave McNally would prove too much starting pitching for the Reds in the 1970 World Series; and in ’72, Catfish Hunter, Ken Holtzman and a bullpen led by Rollie Fingers once again stymied the powerful Machine. 1973 would be particularly painful as the New York Mets brought a pedestrian 82-win team into a 5-game playoff series against the Reds. But Cincinnati, with their poor starting pitching, were no match for Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and John Matlack, who held the Reds to a paltry 8 runs in 5 games, sending a team that won 99 games home in shocking fashion.

When I was a boy, I marked down the end of each season on my mental scorecard to bad luck, or those vengeful baseball gods. I was too young to understand opportunity cost, but I sure understood opportunity lost. If only home plate umpire Ken Burkhart hadn’t blown that out call at home on Bernie Carbo in Game 1. If only those big city imposters from New York had to face my Big Red Machine for 7 games instead of 5. If only a journeyman catcher in tacky white shoes named Tenace hadn’t stumbled into a hall of fame week that mournful October of 1972 at the expense of my clean-shaven boys.

I know better now. I know that just because you can split a game into two halves, it doesn’t mean they are equal. Human nature wants to believe that in sport, offense and defense are just two sides of the same coin; a 50/50 proposition. It’s easy. It’s a clean proposition. But, they are not.

Brad Pitt gave a wholesome face and earnest voice to Billy Beane, bringing analytics to the masses in the form of on base percentage with a side of popcorn. But, the run prevention wing of analytics struck back. Shifts and pitch framing were just the beginning. Platoon advantages would wane as relievers matched up batter to batter. Long after the last reel had unspooled, we would discover that pitchers and run prevention in general have one decided advantage. They have the rules of the game in their favor.

Pull up a barstool on any given Sunday in November and you’ll hear the NFL fan next to you drop some age old wisdom: defense wins championships. There’s both truth and fallacy in that old trope. The rules of the game in fact favor the offense. It’s why teams march down the field without completing a pass. It’s why Tom Brady will play until he’s 50. You can’t touch the quarterback in today’s NFL and every receiver knows how to draw a flag downfield on a pass he had no intention of catching. Still, football has always been defined by defense and hitting. That’s been the culture of the game. Everybody remembers the Steel Curtain, the Doomsday Defense, the Orange Crush Defense, the Sack Exchange, the Fearsome Foursome. Nobody gives offenses memorable names. There are plenty of examples of defense carrying the day because that’s how the tenants of the game thought it should be played. So, they hired the people who preached and carried out that philosophy. Sure, there were offensive minds, but they were few and far between; and straying from the herd has always been bad for job security.

All that is changing. Head coaches with a degree in defense are disappearing. More and more, analytics are convincing owners that offensive minds are best suited to leading football teams because the rules favor that side of the coin.

For its part, baseball has velocity. Pitcher velocity. Velocity eats offense. Batters change their launch angle and teams retaliate by teaching their pitchers to pitch up in the zone. Batters feast on pitchers the third time through the lineup, so teams bring in relievers early, relievers throwing with max effort before handing off the ball to the next man up. Longer-limbed pitchers like Aroldis Chapman and Amir Garrett shrink the diamond’s dimensions, the 60 feet, 6 inches reality broken, exploiting what is now known as “perceived velocity” to further handcuff hitters.

Opener use is only rising, as the run prevention side recognizes the first inning is the most potent for offenses. Strikeouts have risen in every season since 2007. It’s the first time a major stat has gone up unabated for 13 straight years. Why? Pitchers have the hammer and hitters know it. Hitters are countering by selling out for the long ball because they know that sequencing hits together to plate runs has become a losing proposition, especially in the post-season.

The conventional wisdom is that the Reds #GotThePitching. The development of Luis Castillo, the rebirth of Sonny Gray, and the acquisition of analytic wonderkid Trevor Bauer have turned eyes to the newest object in need of repair: an underachieving offense.

All the talk now centers on deficiencies at shortstop and catcher, two positions that are defense-first positions. Talk revolves around Didi Gregorius and Yasmani Grandal because there’s a dearth of available players at those positions. As such, the overpay—like the rent—will be high. Last year, Grandal would have been fine on a one-year contract, but as his age …

Josh VanMeter and Aristides Aquino are huge question marks. Playing them every day for the remainder of the season won’t tell the Reds what they need to know. It will take several hundred at bats to discover if they can handle the adjustments pitchers will throw at them; and in Aquino’s case, pitchers will come at him like Michael Corleone came at Moe Green.

The Reds could make a play for Marcell Ozuna to bolster the offense, but ultimately, they will need Winker, Votto and Suarez to bounce back from sub-standard seasons and Nick Senzel to continue to improve.

The words ALL IN have reappeared in the Reds’ lexicon. If the trade of the top prospect for one year of Trevor Bauer is the bat signal announcing the Reds are going for it, then they should go after Gerritt Cole. Cole is the biggest impact free agent of the off-season. There is no equivalent on the offensive side of the ledger, no single player that can improve the Reds’ fortunes like Cole can.

There are all kinds of ways to convince yourself that Cole would never come to Cincinnati. But they should nevertheless offer him more money than any other team and force him to turn down the highest offer to go somewhere else. The Reds have the money. The payroll is lean. ALL IN shouldn’t mean the payroll increases merely to league average. ALL IN should mean a payroll in the top ten in baseball—$160-170M. The ballpark shouldn’t matter to Cole, as, at 29 years of age, he would be signing a career contract, 6 or 7 years in length. Max Scherzer got 7 years at $210M, covering his age-seasons 30-36. Zack Greinke? 6 years, 206.5M, covering age 32-37. Jon Lester? 6 years, $155M, covering age 31-36. Yu Darvish? 6 years, $126M, covering age 31-36.

The Reds have that kind of money. What would a Gerritt Cole signing mean for the Reds?

It would set the Reds pitching up for the foreseeable future. As Sonny Gray’s contract expires, Hunter Greene will be poised to take his place. The Reds could now conceivably match up with anyone in a 7 game series. With Cole in the fold, Bauer could be traded for prospects to replenish the farm system or an outfielder to improve the offense. They could even face down injury and those baseball gods who so often have written a different post-season script for Cincinnati’s best.

If you think the Reds have enough pitching now, you need to not only learn the lessons of Cueto, Latos and Co., you need to heed the example of the Houston Astros. The 2019 Astros offense is not only the best in baseball this season, they are bordering on being historically great:

AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR WAR
1976 Reds .280 .357 .424 120 19.0 45.9
2019 Astros .274 .349 .486 123 -8.8 30.2

 

At the trade deadline, this is what the Astros top three starters looked like:

Verlander Cole Miley
ERA 2.86 2.94 3.06
Innings 144.2 143.2 126.2
K/9 11.4 13.3 7.5

Yet unbelievably, the Astros went out and traded for Zack Grenke. This is the current environment in baseball. No matter how swaggy the offense may be, the Astros know they have to contend with the Nationals’ Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin; and/or the Dodgers’ Ryu, Buehler and Kershaw; and/or the Mets’ deGrom and Syndergaard.

Erstwhile Fangraphs managing editor Dave Cameron once said:

“Obviously your SS and 1B won’t be exactly the same, but you can have relatively good glove/average bat players everywhere and be fine if the pitching and defense are good enough.”

Cameron also broke down the discrete parts of the game thusly: 40% pitching, 35% hitting, 20% defense, 5% baserunning. That’s a 60-40 split between run creation and run prevention. But, I would posit the recent increased advantage in pitching skews the advantage to run prevention even more.

Whether the Reds intend to cash in the farm system for a two or three year run—or instead attempt to build a young and sustainable organization that competes seemingly every year like the Cardinals do—they will have to confront the reality that the Dodgers and Astros are not going away. That while the Nationals’ window may be closing, the Braves’ window is opening and the Phillies will continue to spend “stupid” money and both will almost certainly spend it on pitching.

When I was a boy, I believed in lucky jerseys that never saw the washing machine and clutch hitting that would somehow find a way. I’ve put all those things away now. Now, I just want the pitching. All of it.

22 Responses

  1. Pete

    My God this is great stuff.

    Watched the Astros last night and they are just awesome all the way around. When they play the Yankees, in the playoffs, it will be fun and enlightening. Every bat in the Yankee lineup can hit HR’s and they hit them in unreal quantity. Like most teams/pitchers they face, can they bludgeon the Astros’ hurlers? Unbelievably the Yankees have 17 players on the IL. 17!

    Richard, we can argue details but you have the big picture nailed. Does great starting pitching still rule the day? When the Astros meet the Bombers, we will find out. I really don’t see the Dodgers having much of a chance against either but that’s why they play the games.

    Jason Linden penned a fantastic piece regarding the minor leagues, AAA in particular, and it is a masterpiece but saying all that, he is no Richard Fitch. Poetry, pure baseball poetry!

    • AirborneJayJay

      I can second this. Great piece of writing by Mr. Fitch. Wonderful.

  2. RojoBenjy

    Nice job, Richard.

    One question though–do the Reds leaders know that #getthepitching is far from over?

    Acquiring Bauer seems to say they do know that–as long as that trend continues into the offseason.

  3. Daytonnati

    I read this morning that the Royals might be for sale. It is expected they go for a billion dollars. The current owner bought them for 76 million two decades ago. The Reds have the money. All that said, the first rock concert I ever attended was at the old University of Dayton fieldhouse – Loggins and Messina warmed up for The Guess Who, early 1970. Great show. Burton Cummings killed. And underrated rock genius. Thanks for the memories.

      • Sliotar

        But, sure….. creating a non-realistic scenario, signing Gerrit Cole …. yeah, that’s the ticket.

        (He will demand $200 million … Lead owner paying that after Homer Bailey? That aside… the player will likely have multiple other options).

        The cultural references and references to self by author….I will go off others’ comments …

        but, IMO, the quality of baseball strategy in this piece that is realistic to get the Reds into the playoffs in 2020 ….. yikes.

        #MustFixTheOffense
        #KeepUpgradingItEveryYearToOvercomePlayingADecliningVotto

      • RedNat

        I think Richard’s point is that it is a heck of a lot harder these day to #get the hitting than to #get the pitching. the top players and athletes in the league are all pitchers. even though are pitching is strong the only way to really make this team any better is to get even better in the pitching department.

      • Pete

        Sliotar, the very things that make Richard such a wonderful writer are they very things that would make him a terrible GM. He’s a romantic and wants to see romance in all things. Unfortunately, this character trait will also blind you to the obvious sometimes. He was big on Puig and he is huge on Votto. From his POV, I completely understand. From mine, it will derail the franchise and I think you agree.

        Really sound baseball minds are in his camp. They are in love with the idea of Joey Votto – yesterday’s Joey Votto. I doubt he is ever coming back but he could…. I pray the Reds FO does not share their unrequited love for baseball Joey. If Votto does not return to some semblance of previous form, he is the biggest hole on the team.

        The most glaring item in this wonderful article is the Astros have a hitter average wRC+ of 123. Reds “might” have three everyday players who can match this: Suarez, Aquino and Winker/Ervin. I didn’t include JVM because it appears the Reds, or Bell, don’t see him as an everyday guy.

        There are three juggernaut teams in MLB: Astros, Yankees and Dodgers. All are head and shoulders above the other teams but they are also the standard that must be met. So what can be done: we all better kneel and pray that Erin, Aquino, Senzel, Bauer, and JVM turn out to be the real deal. Also, the recent Tucker Barnhart is a true new and improved hitter. They have to hit on some of the young guys coming up: Garcia (ss) and Lodolo (LHP starter). Not that these guys become above average players but they need to be elite. They also have to get them through the farm system fast while the window is open.

        The Reds can plug one, or two, holes through FA but they can’t build a team through free agency. Long term, they have to improve player recruitment and development. It’s a difficult task and isn’t exactly sexy to watch unfold, and can be painful but no more than currently.

  4. FreeHouse

    Reds should consider signing Nick Castellanos or Gerrit Cole. From the 2 I think Cole will be the hardest to sign because he’s the best arm available in free agency and the money other teams (Yankees) will be throwing at him the Reds will not be able to compete with that.

  5. Jon

    The point in this article that I agree with the most is the idea that playing Aquino and Vanmeter regularly the rest of the season still won’t tell you (or the Reds) what you need to know going into 2020. They need more at-bats than what we will see the rest of 2019 to know if they are everyday players or not. If the Reds are “all-in” for 2020, they need a lineup with players they can count on being above-average hitters over the course of the entire season. If I’m Dick Williams, I’m planning my 2020 roster with those two guys as bench players and looking to sign a proven 2B and outfielder this winter (as well as a shortstop).

    • Pete

      Okay, so now we are down to Winker, Ervin and Suarez as the only hitters above average. So we assume going into 2020 the following positions are all below average hitters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, CF and RF. That’s a tall order…. I doubt ignoring Aquino and VanMeter’s results are a luxury the Reds can afford. We might be able to re-sign Puig but he is below average too. That’s a lot or work to plug those holes.

      At some point realism must hit us.

      • george

        AHH!! Yes Reality, a very unhappy, tough, information set of facts.
        This year has proven that the Reds can’t hide from reality. The end of rainbow thoughts of a play off spot have blinded many and caused the existing short comings to not be addressed, The current starting pitchers are a glimpse of what is the bare minimum of expectation to be in the NL play-offs. Joey V. is where he is and yes we can remember the past but the Reds haven’t won a play off spot with him in his prime so his future value can’t be expected to be a major contribution. Reds ownership needs to understand that future team payroll will need to be closer to $165-$175 million a year or more every year in order to compete and not just dream or wish.

    • AirborneJayJay

      VanMeter is the 2B for 2020.
      By “sign a proven 2B”, I assume you mean as a free agent. Who on this list of probable free agent 2B do you suggest the Reds sign???
      Gordon Beckham (33)
      Starlin Castro (30)
      Brian Dozier (33)
      Wilmer Flores (28)
      Scooter Gennett (30)
      Jedd Gyorko (31)
      Josh Harrison (32)
      Brock Holt (32)
      Howie Kendrick (36)
      Jason Kipnis (33)
      Brad Miller (30)
      Mike Moustakas (31)
      Eduardo Nuñez (33)
      Chris Owings (28)
      Jonathan Schoop (28)
      Yangervis Solarte (32)
      Neil Walker (34)
      Ben Zobrist (39)

      Moustakas will have his option picked up by Milwaukee. But he is really the only one that would be of interest, and you will have to pay him 25x to 30x more than you will for VanMeter. Almost all of those listed are coming off of big injuries in recent years, are in the twilight of their careers, or just meh as a player. And the aging decline seems to hit 2B the hardest.
      I thought the Reds had finally broken the cycle of former Cardinals, but you could bring in former Cardinal Jedd Gyorko. Nah.
      We can’t get behind this type of thinking.
      The OF is only a slightly better kettle of fish. Castellanos, Eaton, Ozuna, and maybe Puig. We can watch Ozuna “trying” to rob homeruns in LF for 3 or 4 years. No thanks.

    • Roger Garrett

      I agree to a point.The Reds rarely give their young guys enough playing time to see what they can actually do but that only applies to some players which is really the bigger problem.All players have not and will not be given the same chances and while we continue to evaluate after 1500 or more at bats as in Peraza’a case others watch.Or in the case of vets playing right now that aren’t under contract for next year along with bench pieces playing we still never find out about younger guys so we just recycle again and again.As a small market team the Reds live in fear of releasing or trading a younger player that still has options left because he may break out some where else.Bob Steve is one that comes to mind and next year there will be more.Who knows how long it takes to evaluate a hitter or pitcher but the most successful rebuilding teams tell their fans we will play young guys all season and expect us to lose and lose badly but hang in there.The Reds never have and never will do that as evident by the lineups each night filled with vets and bench players that we know about while others we don’t watch.

  6. Daytonian

    Nice writing, Mr. Fitch. I always appreciate a Palmer, Cuellar, McNally reference followed by an allusion to Moe Green. Excellent and stylish.

  7. matthew hendley

    An idea for the Bullpen, Watch the Yankees. A. Chapman has an opt out after the season is complete. If he does, the reds should consider a reunion. Even if 105 has turned into 99 that is still heads and shoulders over Peralta, or even Garrett. Cole is a Boras Client, it’s not going to happen sadly.

  8. Big Ed

    The Reds’ long-term solution to “get the pitching” is to develop it themselves, like the Dodgers and Mets do.

    That is much easier said than done, and the Reds haven’t done it, since maybe 1940, if ever. That is why they hired Derek Johnson. I don’t think that they can afford the risk of a $30mm/year pitcher; both the Sale and Price contracts have the much richer Red Sox in a pickle.

    While it is correct that another 125 ABs this year for Aquino and VanMeter won’t tell the Reds everything they need to know, it will tell them more than than nothing. I am confident that VanMeter’s swing will hold up under the bright lights. He is very short to the ball and will take singles to left if the pitchers give him that.

    Aquino is a bigger unknown, but the extra 125 ABs will tell a lot about his ability to absorb coaching and making adjustments. His swing already looks to me like it is longer than it was 2 weeks ago, so we will see how he can corral that tendency.

  9. Steve Schoenbaechler

    Oh, the Reds are far from where they need to be with anything. They can still do a lot.

    The pitching did take a huge step up this season, particular thanks to Castillo, Gray, and Roark. But, my question has always been “Who’s next?” I mean, we should always be ready to the perverbial “Plan B” in case we lose someone to FA or something. And, right now, from within the organization, there’s simply not that much “ready for prime time” in the minors.

    This aspect in the minors has been horrible, from what I can tell. I mean, in recent years, I remember us talking about how there would be as many as 12 possible “young stud” arms who could make the top 5 rotation out of spring training. And, from what I remember, I believe it was ST 2018, none of Castillo, Mahle, and Romano were among any of those 12. But, those were the 3 who came out on top? Now, how is it that those 3 came out on top, bypassing so many other prospects who were essentially deemed “can’t miss”?

    I just don’t see us having done much pitching development in the minors.

    This is one reason why, during the off season, not only do I hope to see the FA do:

    1) Find some offense
    2) Shore up the bullpen

    But, also, and I believe possibly the best thing that can happen for the organization the long run:

    3) Get some more scouts, instructors, etc., in the minors, especially with the pitching.

    That’s where I believe Krivsky and O’Brien had it right, build from within. They emphasized developing the minors. And, because of them, we got a lot of good players from our minors. And, for a team in this market, that’s where I believe we are going to be more successful from.

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m not against going to get the FA or two that we could also use when the time comes. But, a majority of our success needs to come from the minors.

    • Rob

      Think you are close. 2-3 key free agents or non farm guys. Cards have Goldsmith, Ozuna, and Fowler. Brewers have Moose, Yelich, Cain, and Grandahl. Cubs are pretty much home grown except on the pitching end with Hamil, Darvish, Lester, and Kimbrel. Phillies have Harper, Segura, and Realmuto. Reds are close with Bauer, Gray, and Galvis. Braves are young and still have studs coming. Still got to develop the farm and either count on the developed pieces or move them to a developing team for the big piece. I am talking guys like Stephenson, Ervin, Winker, and possibly Greene who won’t help us until 2022.