The Cincinnati Reds (62-69) take on the Miami Marlins (47-84) in game three of their four game series tonight. The Reds have taken the first two games of the series and look to keep that rolling tonight as they try to climb closer to the .500 mark.

Starting Pitchers

Anthony DeSclafani (8-7, 4.27 ERA, 128.2IP, 25 HR, 41 BB, 131 K)

As we’ve seen for the last few seasons from Anthony DeSclafani, he’s going to throw strikes – he doesn’t walk many hitters – and he’s going to rack up plenty of strikeouts. But his kryptonite is the home run ball. He’s given up 25 of them this season. His home runs allowed per 9-innings pitched is the 8th highest rate in the league among pitchers with at least 120 innings this year.

In a large ballpark like Miami there is less of a chance that could be an issue versus when he pitches at home, or even around the National League Central which has several home run friendly ballparks. But when he does run into problems, it’s usually a home run that causes it rather than a lack of control coming on where he’s giving up free bases left and right.

After a very strong run in June and July, DeSclafani has posted a 5.33 ERA thus far in August thanks in part to allowing six home runs in just 25.1 innings. He had allowed five home runs in the previous two months combined. If there’s something beyond the home run ball that is the kryptonite for the right-handed pitcher, it’s left-handed hitters. Overall lefties are hitting .289/.371/.550 against him. They are doing even better than that on the road where they have a .328/.397/.592 line against him. Tread lightly against the lefties.

Sandy Alcantara (4-11, 4.15 ERA, 149.2IP, 22 HR, 71 BB, 108 K)

The ERA for Sandy Alcantara is slightly above-average this season, even when adjusted (he has a 104 ERA+). He’s gotten by with an ability to keep the baseball in the ballpark in a time when the ball is leaving at record levels. His home runs allowed per 9-innings pitched is the 19th best in baseball among 105 starters with 100 or more innings.

Keeping the ball in front of the fences is good, and it will generally limit the runs you allow. But the rest of the things he does seem to be issues for he and the Marlins, and good for the opposition. He walks a lot of guys. He’s handed out 71 walks this season. His 11% walk rate is the 3rd worst in baseball among starters. He also doesn’t strike hitters out. His 16.8% strikeout rate is the 10th worst among starters in baseball.

Lots of walks? Lots of contact? That sounds like a good thing for opposing hitters. The right-handed pitcher doesn’t really show platoon splits. Lefties are hitting .238/.330/.404 against him. Righties have a .240/.340/.399 line against him. With that said, lefties hit a lot more home runs, and a lot fewer doubles than righties do against him. His ERA in August is 2.36, though it’s been fueled by a .181 BABIP. His walk and strikeout rates have remained very poor during the month.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

  1. Josh VanMeter – LF
  2. Joey Votto – 1B
  3. Eugenio Suarez – 3B
  4. Aristides Aquino – RF
  5. Freddy Galvis – 2B
  6. Nick Senzel – CF
  7. Tucker Barnhart – C
  8. Jose Iglesias – SS
  9. Anthony DeSclafani – SP

Miami Marlins

  1. Jon Berti – SS
  2. Neil Walker – 1B
  3. Garrett Cooper – RF
  4. Starlin Castro – 3B
  5. Isan Diaz – 2B
  6. Lewis Brinson – CF
  7. Austin Dean – LF
  8. Bryan Holaday – C
  9. Sandy Alcantara – SP

Pre-Game Notes

Jeff Passan has up some thoughts on all kinds of things heading into the 2019-2020 offseason. One of the things he touches on is free agency. In that talk he notes that he believes Yasiel Puig is going to struggle to get more than a 1-year deal unless he has a big September or playoff run. He also notes to keep an eye on Luis Castillo as a possible extension candidate this offseason.

Reading from earlier today

This morning Matt Wilkes took a look at what’s been holding back Alex Wood from pitching like he has in the past. The stuff is still there, but the execution hasn’t quite been. This afternoon Richard Fitch looked at why the Reds will still need to “get the pitching” moving forward. If you missed out on either of those, go check them out.

43 Responses

  1. matthew hendley

    This looks like the kinda game where disco can right the ship again. Really good Ball park for him, really low pressure v competition. Reds gotta go out and keep beating the AAAA team that is sent up against them.

  2. DocProc

    Have Votto and Senzel swap spots and I would like that lineup a lot.

    • Curt

      I was hoping that might be addressed during his IL stint. wishful thinking. guess it doesn’t really matter at this point.

  3. Klugo

    How many different batting orders has Bell drawn up? Game 132 and we’re still experimenting. He’s taking “get out of your comfort zone” to a different level.

    • RojoBenjy

      A great research question. THom needs to get his interns on that.

      Doug—you have interns too, right?

      • Doug Gray

        Baseball-Reference might have that answer on the team page within the “lineups” section.

      • Don

        according to baseball-reference the reds have 111 different batting orders for 131 games not counting pitchers in BA.

        The most common batting order has been used 5 times.
        Senzel
        Votto
        Suarez
        Winker
        Puig
        Dietrich
        Iglesias
        Pitcher
        Barnhardt

        2nd most common – 4 times
        Senzel
        Votto
        Suarez
        Deitrich
        Winker
        Puig
        Iglesias
        Barnhardt
        Pitcher

        One other line has been used three times, no other lineup has been used more than 2 times.

        Comparisions
        Cubs – 114 batting orders in 131 games – Most common 4 games (x2) and 3 games *x2)
        Dodgers – 111 lineups in 132 games – Most common 3 games for 6 lineups
        Cards – 85 lineups in 131 games – Most common used 16 tines

      • RojoBenjy

        Thanks, Don.

        Really interesting. Especially the comparison teams—meaning who they are and where they are in the standings.

  4. Seat101

    Alcantara Is a very fast worker. Bodes well. For him at least. Who’s going to hit for the cycle tonight?

      • RojoBenjy

        If Votto walks 4 times tonight i’m calling it the Golden Mounty.

      • RojoBenjy

        Aquino throwing his name in the cycle pool with a HR and double.

    • Sliotar

      Aquino now halfway to the cycle.

      Park is big enough to let him leg out a triple.

  5. Indy Red Man

    Disco now has a 3.61 era since June 1.

    His last 14 starts since June 1:

    Only 3 starts with 4+ runs allowed with 9 starts of 2 runs or less

    If the pitching coach can help him limit his HRs then he could be an excellent 3rd/4th starter. Thats if?

    JVM with a smash that was turned into an out. He’s had alot of outs that look they were hit 100+ mph. Hammered one to right the other night that the RF snagged 2 inches off the grass. Alot to like with him!

  6. RojoBenjy

    In the radio Cowboy and Thrall talking about Marlins pitcher Alcantara as having the least amount of run support of all MLB starters.

    Would he be an intriguing addition if the Reds could go get him? Just 23 years old.

  7. Matthew Habel

    tHom falls flat on his face while ripping the Marlins attendance. Claimed that all pro football in North America draws 1,000,000 fans a year.

    Corrected himself but then went right back to it to make another stab. Had to make the Marlins look worse than himself.

      • Billy

        Same story every night…..
        Whining about umpires or complaining about the teams announcers..
        Consistency

      • Billy

        Same story every night…..
        Whining about umpires or complaining about the teams announcers.

      • RojoBenjy

        Billy-

        You can say that again.

        Another part of the same story every night are the posts that say every night the posts are only complaining.

        It’s a waltz.

      • RojoBenjy

        Shrewd observation.

        I too participate in the dance.

  8. VaRedsFan

    It’s been a real pleasure getting the Marlins broadcast for the last 3 games. Great production work on the telecast….multiple replay angles…great in play commentary.

  9. VaRedsFan

    Castro…what a play near the dugout

  10. RedsMonk65

    Wow, Disco is dealing tonight. 1 hit in nearly 7 innings. 8Ks and counting.

  11. VaRedsFan

    That would have been the best Iggy play of all time, if only Pujols, Molina or Votto had been running.

    • JB

      Just the fact he hit the glove is amazing.

  12. VaRedsFan

    4th straight game for Geno-Bambino!!

  13. Seat101

    I may be able to stay awake for the recap tonight. Hope I don’t jinx anything

    • RojoBenjy

      My prediction about Disco for the cycle came to naught since Bell went and pinch hit for him.

      C’mon, give the guy a chance!

      • Billy

        Again…..
        What? Bell should let him throw 130 pitches?
        Jeez….. complain about EVERYTHING!
        Manager, announcers, umpires

      • RojoBenjy

        Nice. I was talking about his hitting. It was for humor.

  14. JB

    I think everybody in the stands got a baseball tonight. All 14 of them.

  15. Seat101

    @Billy All we wanted was for Disco to have a chance to hit for the cycle.

  16. RedsMonk65

    Nice game all around — especially Disco and the ‘pen. Hats off.

  17. Roger Garrett

    I know who we are playing but its nice to not have to use 2 or 3 guys to get 6 outs with a big lead.So often we have to but Gausman did it by himself.Its often overlooked but it really important to have guys that can do what he just did.If he had one more pitch he would be something.His fastball and split are above average pitches.