Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (61-69)
6 10 0
Miami Marlins (47-83)
3 5 0
W: Gray (10-6) L: Lopez (5-6)
Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

The Cincinnati Reds put it all together to defeat the Miami Marlins 6-2 on Monday night at Marlins Park. This marks just the third time in the last two weeks that the Reds have scored more than four runs in a game.

Freddy Galvis was the offensive catalyst on this night. He got three hits, one of them a three-run homer, and a total of four RBI. He now has four dingers in 13 games with Cincinnati.

The man of the night, though, was the man on the mound. Sonny Gray tossed six brilliant innings. He did issue five walks, something he has had trouble with in road games, but just two hits. He allowed two earned runs on a homer by Neil Walker (the only Marlin to drive any runs in against the Reds this year) but he also fanned six Marlins. Pitching Ninja was all about him.

His wife asked him to hit a homer and Eugenio Suarez knows a happy wife means a happy life.

Following suit, Phillip Ervin launched his fourth dinger of the year to put the Reds up by four.

David Bell brought Raisel Iglesias into the game in the ninth, with a four-run lead, in hopes of getting his confidence back. After mowing down Isan Diaz to begin the inning, calm seas turned rough for Iglesias as he gave up an opposite-field shot to Jorge Alfaro and a triple to Lewis Brinson. Thankfully, he was able to buckle down and strike out the rest of the side to help seal the Reds defeat of the Marlins.

One last thing: shout out to Doug’s favorite player, Josh VanMeter. Dude notched his first career triple on Monday.

The Reds end the losing skid and now have a shot at back-to-back wins with Luis Castillo on the mound, tomorrow.

37 Responses

  1. matthew hendley

    A good win for Gray, lets see if castillo can match it. The Reds need a Series sweep. Good work by GF Freddy Galvis as well

  2. Sliotar

    Nice win…and what a season by Sonny Gray.

    Now….remember the “But, but … Run Differential” crowd?

    A few here …. telling the rest of us how great the Reds “should be” because they had a positive run differential early on?

    Plenty of us tried to remind that beating up on the Marlins and Giants (before their revival) distorted that statistic.

    Currently, the Reds are +11 runs on the season.
    The Reds are 4-0 and +23 runs vs. the Marlins.

    (And it’s not cherry-picking, because Miami is the only NL team projected to lose 100 games, 10 worse than anyone else. They aren’t much better than a AAAA team.)

    • Sliotar

      And y’all who said over the weekend that Suarez “quit”, “was disinterested”, “in a recliner already” ….. yikes.

      Garbage time HRs or not in the last 2 days, he is a ridiculous value for his contract.
      ($19.8M entering today, per FanGraphs)

      Suarez has more HRs than Votto/Senzel/Aquino…. combined.

      Maybe if the team had more healthy hitting threats, Suarez could take a day off.
      73 wins isn’t in the bag yet.

      • Jim Walker

        Iggy managed to make the Suarez Monday bomb something beyond garbage time.

    • wkuchad

      you do realize every other NL team also plays against the Marlins, except of course the Marlins?

    • Matt WI

      So the run differential issue demonstrates something that a lot of people get wrong about “new” stats thinking: The math says the Reds “should” be better, and we hoped it would turn that way. But the numbers are not infallible, it’s a percentage thing.

      Yet, to people who complain about “garbage time” and things that don’t count, what is the alternative?- have hitters only contribute when they “know” it’s going to help win a game? Let’s make sure to figure that out- Walk offs only, all others need not apply. They score when they score. They all count.

  3. TR

    A needed win to break the three game losing streak before all of 5,297 at Marlins Park.

  4. rex

    I went to the marlins park sat behind the dug out and loved all of it

    happy night

    • TR

      A real nice ballpark but the Marlins need some dedicated fans which is not easy in football crazy Miami//Fort Lauderdale. And the same story in Tampa Bay without the nice ballpark.

  5. Jim Walker

    A good night for JVM. Reached twice and scored both times. Per Bobby Nightengale, @nightengalejr, “since start of July” JVM’s slash is 388/.546/.934 (Fangraphs shows him at .381/ .528/.909 for the same period). Both of those are before Monday night.

    I’m wondering who plays where and who sits if Votto and Winker both turn up healthy any time soon.

    • Slicc50

      Yes, no matter what happens for the rest of the season. Josh VanMeter needs to play every day!

      • Indy Red Man

        I don’t see any glaring weaknesses with JVM. Atleast not yet. The only time I’ve seen him look bad is against a good change-up and not everybody has one. In fact lefties don’t throw change-ups to lefty hitters so maybe thats why he tore up lefties at AAA. Now if someone would just tell Bell.

      • CI3J

        So instead of “Better Call Saul”, we should have “Better Tell Bell”.

      • James H.

        He should be the team’s 2nd baseman.

      • Centerfield

        This would be the logical path, but don’t forget who is managing….
        JVM will go back to being the utility player, 2B, 1B, OF.

  6. Mason Red

    SG and LC are the real deal and the Reds need to build around them. One more similar starter at the 3 and TB at 4 would give the Reds a strong starting staff. They need to shore up the BP and add some offense although Galvis looks like a masher to me. Going to be an interesting and busy offseason…hopefully.

  7. Klugo

    This game is such a mental battle. Sonny Gray is a mental Superman.

    • Jim Walker

      What was it the Yogi (Berra) said? Something about baseball being 90% mental and the other half physical? Think he had it dialed in.

  8. Rob

    Thom and Chris seemed pretty certain last night that Jose I was going to get an offer to return to the Reds. If that is the case, then wouldn t the offer be reasonably attractive and competitive? Why would you waste your time with a n offer below market value? What do we think this means if accurate? 1-2 years at $5M per? Who is a fair comp? Mercer?

    • Pete

      Why even consider a better offer than $2.5/M? Here are the hard facts, emphasis on facts:

      Jose Iglesias, 2018:
      wRC+: 90
      WAR: +2.5
      oWAR: -4.2
      dWAR: 13.6
      BsR (baserunning): 1.3

      2019:
      wRC+: 88
      WAR: +1.5
      oWAR: -8.4
      dWAR: 10.2
      BsR: -1.6

      Imagine yourself as GM and you are going to the Owner to explain why you want to double Jose’s salary to $5M. What do you say? By every category, JI is slipping and he will be 30 next season. Seriously, justify your request.

      If the Reds run the team like this they will always be bad. They must be objective in there analysis. Jose is a great guy, one of the greatest but he is a mediocre ballplayer. While we’re at it, let’s offer Puig a 5-year, $18M per, contract. Why not? Great guy, one of the best. Who cares about winning, we have a club made up of the greatest guys. For people like me who only go by objective evidence (numbers), this is maddening. Good Lord, please take time to stop and think it through.

      • Roger Garrett

        I agree Pete but the Reds just love their players.Nobody else wanted a lifetime 270 hitter that could play defense at an above average level but he was better then what they had which underlies the problem.Same with DD.Hard for the Reds to move on from his two months of fame because they love their players.Wandy has had two months of fame in two years or more,Billy had 5 years and Peraza now 4 years and will get one more.Galvis had power and will get 5.5 or a 1 mil buy out I believe and for me for 2020 it is a no brainer cause you can’t possibly have both of them as starters next year and throw JVM in to an outfield platoon.Don’t be shocked if that’s not exactly what they do because they are doing it now.

      • Pete

        Roger, I wish I could argue with you but what’s past is prologue… Hey starting next March the chase for the title of 4th place in the NL Central is on!

  9. Don

    Senzel was 2 for 3, JVM got on twice, Galvis got 3 hits. good offensive production.

    Gray was great and Lorenzen bailed him out in the 7th and had a very solid 8th inning.

    Good win.

    Not to cherry pick teams for win differential, the Reds are -14 vs Dodgers (only NL team which is on pace for more than 100 wins).

    So they have beaten up on the worst team in the NL and were beaten up by the best team in the NL.

    All 5 teams in the NL playoffs today are +61 or better in run differential.
    The top 7 teams in the AL are all +89 or better in run differential.

    Run differential is a good metric for winning expectation and the Reds (5 less wins than the run differential expectation) and Arizona is +60 which correlates to 6 less wins than run differential says they should have.

    Below are 4 games the Reds should have one which is 1 less than Run differential is predicting.

    SF – May 3 – Lost 8 run lead (1 run loss)
    SF – May 5 – Lost 4 run lead (1 run loss)
    Milwaukee – May 22 – Lost 5 run lead (2 run loss)
    St Louis – July 19 – Lost 7 run lead(1 run loss)

    Reds are 4-7 in extra inning games, 15-27 in 1 run games and 18-15 in blowout (> 5 run) games.

    Reds do need more consistent/timely offense and their 1 run game record shows this to be true.

    If they would not have turned what should have been blowout wins into losses (+4) and would have been 500 team in the other 1 run games(15-24 becomes 19-20) they would have 8 more wins. That would have been 69-61 (vs 61-69 reality) at this point in the season which would be tied with the Cubs for 2nd place in division and 2nd Wild Card.

    That is how close this team was to competing for the playoffs in 2019.

    4 blowouts not lost (pitching, starters and BP collapses) and 4 more 1 run games with a timely hit to win (offensive improvement, bloop hits like vs Iglesias last Friday).

    The reality is they lost those games are are out of the playoff contention but I do not see how the conclusion can be the Reds are significantly off from contention.

    • CFD3000

      Don, the woulda coulda shoulda game is tough, and apparently every round of golf I play shoulda been about 6 shots lower. But in this case there are some important insights in your interesting post. My takeaway here is threefold:
      1. This team, when healthy, really is close to contention already. I expect them to contend for a division title in 2020, based largely on the top 3 starters Gray, Castillo, and Bauer, combined with a young and improving lineup.
      2. The bullpen must get upgraded. Iglesias with 9 losses is brutal for the team’s W-L record. And those 4 big blown leads have to be eliminated. There has to be a reliable arm or three to stop the bleeding on those days. Turn around just those four losses and this is already a .500 club.
      3. It really is the little things. In the first game at Pittsburgh the Reds had 1st and 3rd nobody out and the next three batters failed to put a ball in play. One run loss. Ervin missing cutoff men, Dietrich dropping a cutoff throw from Aquino, both this week. Over the course of a season those little failures lead to half a dozen losses that could be wins. That’s a 12 game difference relative to .500. To me that’s a manager / coaching / leadership / accountability problem. Fix that and this is definitely a playoff team.
      I don’t watch enough non-Reds games to know if every team has frequent problems with the fine points of professional baseball but there’s an opportunity there for the Reds.

      So bottom line I’m both frustrated by this team, and excited about the very near future. I hope they start with just one win, tonight.

      • Jim Walker

        @Don and CDF3000, I believe you are both on the beam. Its the runs a team doesn’t score which it should have and the runs it allows which it shouldn’t have which turn competitive games and seasons.

        What’s a standard to use? Probably Run Expectancy since it reflects the average number of runs teams actually scored (or conversely allowed) in specific men on base/ outs situations.

        It would be an interesting exercise for the professional number crunchers to pull their team’s numbers out of the mix and compare them with the average for the rest of the league. Plus of course compare them to the numbers of the more successful teams.

    • Centerfield

      I don’t believe the Reds are more than a .500 club in 2020 with the current roster and manager. Their strength is starting pitching, but that is partially negated when pitchers only go 5 innings. The single biggest need is a LF who can hit and not embarrass in the field (think of a Kevin Mitchell type). It wouldn’t hurt to ax Bell, get rid of Peraza and find a closer with some intestinal fortitude. Between JI and Galvis, only one should start. 1B may be a lost cause. I think a “winning culture” starts at the top and can be seen throughout an organization. I see too many players who can’t bunt, can’t put a ball in play, can’t hit the other way and can’t throw a strike. It has to be Delino DeShields fault….

      • Jim Walker

        Or going back a bit further than Mitchel, George Foster.

      • LWblogger2

        I’m sorry, did you actually see The Mitchelline Man in LF? He could absolutely rake and I loved him as a Red but his defense was every bit as bad as Winker’s and in my opinion much worse than Ervin’s. Foster on the other hand…

  10. matthew hendley

    Still not sold on the reds successfully resigning Iglesias. The Option on ‘glove first’ Galvis is getting exercised that is beyond a doubt. That leaves Jose I looking at 5.5yearly as his base value to compete with. He will test the waters. There will be teams may be willing to increase of meet that price. I do not see the Reds exceeding that price with Jose I, and I believe that he will walk. Its simple business. Now will the reds make an offer, of course, but some offers are just to show the base that ‘we are trying’. I would expect Galvis to be opening day starter at short in 2020.

    Obviously the follow on implications of that are that JVMR returns to second, DD to the bench piece (as designed), Winker, Ervin or a FA pickup to left. Its safe to say Aquino’s got right and Senzel CF for the foreseeable future.

    • Pete

      “There will be teams may be willing to increase of meet that price.”

      Why?

  11. matthew hendley

    First off thank you for pointing out the typo. That is supposed to be willing to increase OR meet that price.

    That said, never doubt a good agent. But for sure, anyone who thinks Jose I is signing a 2.5 mil Minor league deal after this season is out of their mind.

    • Pete

      I’m just trying to figure it out. Jose has regressed this year, so once again why would he expect to double his salary? I don’t get the logic. Is it the eyeballs once again?

      He has regressed in hitting, fielding, and baserunning. Also, he will be one year older. Unless the Reds will pay him greater than his current salary, I believe no one else will. All I can say is if you think he is good this year, you should’ve seen him last year.

      • matthew hendley

        Numbers mean little to nothing when contracts are involved. There are a multitude of factors that become involved. He was brought in as a backup short stop, and beat the starting SS out of a Job (that does happen a lot in Cincinnati). He will want a starter Job, or a backup on a shoe in contender, (ie. LA or NYY etc etc, Not saying those two are looking for him, just identifying what a shoe in contender is). His agent is going to take actual results (new HR high, credit for situational hitting) spruce it up and sell it. He is beating his current salary, whether in Cincinnati or not.

    • matthew hendley

      It also boils down to Jose Peraza. He will be tendered a contract this offseason, which means he is also getting offered Arbitration. (cause reds) He’s what 2.2 now. 2nd time through Arbitration, he will gun for an probably settle in the 3 mil range. That’s the absolute FLOOR for Jose I. There is no one on the planet who can convince me right now that Jose P is better then Jose I. They know that. Jose I agent knows this. Even if Peraza is optioned after the offseason the pay still remains. So you have a Target price of 5.5 and a floor of three. Yes, Jose will get that, and I don’t think the Reds will pay it.

      • LWblogger2

        I dont know. I like Peraza’s work ethic but he’s definitely in consideration for being non-tendered.

    • Pete

      I’m just trying to figure it out. Jose has regressed this year, so once again why would he expect to double his salary? I don’t get the logic. Is it the eyeballs once again?

      He has regressed in hitting, fielding, and baserunning. Also, he will be one year older. Unless the Reds will pay him greater than his current salary, I believe no one else will. All I can say is if you think he is good this year, you should’ve seen him last year. Oye.