Recently I’ve noticed that certain Reds broadcasters (Marty and Jeff) love to bring up the fact that José Iglesias is good at getting two-strike hits, especially on 0-2 counts. So I started paying closer attention to Iglesias’ at-bats. Sure enough, he does seem to get a lot of hits with two strikes. But just how many does he get? And how does it compare to other major leaguers? Does his seemingly clutch hitting warrant a contract extension?

Comparing Hitters

Marty and the Cowboy aren’t wrong. Iglesias has been one of the best two strike hitters on the Reds this season, in a minimum of 50 plate appearances. But he’s not leaps and bounds ahead of any other player either. He has 59 hits or walks on two strike counts in 1515 pitches, good for 4.0% of pitches he sees. The next closest for the Reds is Joey Votto. Votto has 76 hits/walks in 1976 pitches (3.8%). Votto does have more hits than Iglesias, but he also sees more pitches because he works the count more. Therefore, Votto’s percentage is lower. Following Iglesias are Jesse Winker at 3.7% and Eugenio Suarez at 3.2%.

In the National League, Iglesias is 51st in hits and walks with two strikes. Other players close to him include Jeff McNeil of the Mets (60 in 1609 pitches), Trea Turner of the Nationals (60 in 1559 pitches), and Jose Martinez of the Cardinals (58 in 1463 pitches). While he’s not one of the elite hitters, he stacks up well with other decent players in the league.

Iglesias has been a consistent hitter with two strikes all season. Since July 1, he has 22 hits/walks on two strikes, and before July (Mar. 28-June 30), he had 38 hits. Stats like this one are not too predictive because a player can have a lot of hits one year and regress the next year, but Iglesias has remained consistent throughout his career. He’s already surpassed his hit total from the last two years and is closing in on his 2016 total of 65.

There are four different counts a batter can be in with two strikes: 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2. Of these four counts, Iglesias is the best when he’s in an 0-2 hole. He has 23 hits/walks when he’s in the worst of the four counts and 18 hits/walks when there’s a 1-2 count. He also gets to a two-strike count more often than other counts. 30.4% of the pitches he’s seen have been with two strikes. 11.0% of the pitches he’s seen have come on an 0-2 count. Iglesias gets behind in the count, but still manages to turn it into a positive a lot of the time.

If a batter is a good two-strike hitter, it usually means that batter makes good contact and knows the zone. We’ll get to how well Iglesias knows the zone later. First, let’s talk about how often he makes contact when he’s up to bat.

Making Contact

According to Fangraphs, Iglesias’ contact percentage is 86.1%. His career average is 87.9%, so this season it’s right in line with his career. In comparison, the best contact hitter in MLB last season was Michael Brantley, then with the Indians and now with the Astros. His contact percentage is 90.9% in 2019 and his career rate is 91.1%. Iglesias is not as good as Brantley at making contact, but is better than two players named Mike Trout and Joey Votto, whose career contact rates are 81.8% and 80.7%, respectively. Obviously Iglesias isn’t as good as Trout or Votto, but a player can be good at making contact while not being a better overall player.

Iglesias makes decent contact on pitches inside the zone. His z-contact% of 90.5% this season is lower than his normal average of 94.1%. He’s making contact on pitches outside of the zone slightly more than in previous seasons as well, but it’s not a huge difference. Last season, his o-contact% was 76.7% and this season it’s 78.6%. That number is still right around where he normally is for his career.

Knowing the Zone

This is where Iglesias has struggled. He has seen his swing rates climb higher than average. His total swing percentage went from 49.7% in 2018 to 54.7% this season. Of pitches Iglesias does swing at, his percentage of pitches inside the zone (z-swing%) has gone from 61.9% with the Tigers last year to 67.4% this year. The major increase in his swing percentage has been his o-swing%, however. His career o-swing% is 38.0%, but this season it’s jumped all the way to 46.1%. While Iglesias makes decent contact, especially with two strikes, he has swung at more pitches outside the zone. One reason for this could be that Iglesias is seeing less pitches inside the zone. His zone% (percentage of pitches seen inside the zone) went down from 45.1% to 40.3% this year.

Despite chasing more pitches, his strikeout totals haven’t gone up dramatically. Iglesias has never been a high strikeout guy, mainly because he is a higher contact hitter. He’s struck out 56 times in 2019, more than the 47 times he did a year ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up surpassing his career high of 65 strikeouts in 2017. Chasing pitches hasn’t affected his production drastically (especially when he’s already got a career high eight home runs), but Iglesias could be even better this season if he was more aware of where the pitches are that he’s swinging at.

To Sign Him or Not to Sign Him?

Iglesias is a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. With the season he’s having, I could see the Reds extending him, but he’s probably going to want the kind of money the Reds might not want to pay a bench player. I’m not sure if the Reds are completely sold on him being the everyday starter at shortstop in 2020, especially now with Freddy Galvis as a option too. With a 89 wRC+, Iglesias hasn’t been the best player on the team, but he’s been an asset to the Reds this season. He’s not without his flaws, but he’s shown he can be better than other options as long as he can fix his latest tendency to swing at bad pitches.

 

Stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant.

18 Responses

  1. matthew hendley

    The question is will he sign for less then 5.5 Mil. You are not getting him on a MiLB deal for 2.5 Mil again, so you can write that out of your mind right now. 5.5 is the price that Gavis will command with his option exercised. If the Reds are willing to go higher then that, or add multiple years favorable to Jose, then it would seem they really want him, and he will sign. If the Reds try another 1 year or lowball the offer, then he is going to the Market and very well clear 5.5 with a deal with a new team. After this year, He is probably not accepting a backup job either, forcing Galvis to 2nd, and would not and should not accept a backup job to Jose P.

    The one thing that the 2 strike hitting shows though that is good, is that Jose is not giving up on at bats. Always good.

    I just don’t think he is coming back.

    • Ashley Davis

      I agree that he’s not going to sign another $2.5 million deal. His season has been too good for that.

  2. VaRedsFan

    Since the article was titled 2-strike HITTER, walks should not have been included in the analysis. Compare him with everybody else on hits alone, and see where he stacks up.

    He does indeed swing at just about everything…especially after he gets 2 strikes.
    He does become a situational hitter in those instances. (make contact vs. trying to go yard). I like that quality.

    • vegastypo

      That was my first reaction also, Va. When he gets to two strikes, he takes the “protect the plate” to bigger extremes. I’m glad he’s able to make enough contact to get his share of hits, but that doesn’t seem sustainable over the long run.

      If the Reds can seriously upgrade at shortstop next season, great, go for it. But I hope people don’t sell his defense short. In a tiny park like GABP, every baserunner is that much closer to being a potential run because fly balls end up as home runs.

      Upgrade offense at 2B (Gee, VanMeter maybe?) and catcher, but I’m pretty sold on Iglesias.

      Thanks for the article, Ashley.

  3. Pete

    Great analysis Ashley. I don’t quite get where your coming from on the 2-strike count hitting. I just did a simple exercise, through counts measuring wRC+:
    0-2: 66
    1-2: 19
    2-2: 22
    3-2: 30

    These numbers don’t look particularly good to me but I’m not comparing them to other hitters. On the surface, it appears Marty & Jeff didn’t do their homework. Admittedly, my analysis is the roughest of rough.

    I doubt they try to retain JI but if they can get a low ball contract they might sign him for a year or two. Looking at it objectively, Iglesias hit slightly better last year so why he would all of sudden get a really nice offer is hard to imagine. I agree with those who say Jose is better than what his stats show. He is a very heady player who is very consistent in his play and is a awesome defensive player. IMO, the Reds brought in Galvis for a reason and I doubt it’s to play 2B long-term. Bell may be confused about this and that’s always dangerous. One of the other should go or we are likely to see a Galvis-Iglesias keystone combo.

    • Alex

      I was curious so I looked up NL average wRC+ this season through each of those counts:
      0-2: 19
      1-2: 35
      2-2: 67
      3-2: 134

    • Pete

      I found this topic interesting (2-strike counts) and asked my self who looks like they are the most comfortable with 2 strikes? Phil Ervin and it was a good choice. Since Phil was called back his K-rate has dropped each month:
      June: 38.5%
      July: 20.4%
      August: 10%

      He is slumping in August and as Doug pointed out he wasn’t going to maintain that BABIP forever. However, with a 10% K-rate he will not require a real high BABIP to be very successful but he must continue to hit line drives – he has dropped his LD% from 38.2% in July to 21.4% in August. I just hope he isn’t sacrificing hard hit balls for a low K-rate. If he can mange both simultaneously, he will really be some kind of hitter.

      Phil’s wRC+ through 2-strike counts:
      0-2: 39
      1-2: 78
      2-2-: 119
      3-2: 199

    • Ashley Davis

      I used Baseball Savant/Statcast search and input the parameters I wanted. It gave me how many hits depending on the count, how many pitches the player has seen, and what the percentage is.

    • A. Bradley

      Galvis has done nothing but crush so far. There is always an inherent bias for the youthful players. I love JVM as much as the next guy, but he can get a tone of playing time and learn versatility by being utility next season.

      • Doug Gray

        Two weeks out of his entire career shouldn’t change the plans for an above-average hitting 24-year-old middle infielder.

        IF Freddy Galvis had a track record of actually being a quality bat, maybe we could make the argument you are making. But he hasn’t got that track record. And he’s going to be 30 next season. Having him take away at-bats from Josh VanMeter, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Phillip Ervin, and Aristides Aquino is a strange way to go about things (which is what would happen if Galvis takes at-bats away from VanMeter at 2B, because then he’s got to play in the outfield, which takes at-bats away from those guys).

      • TR

        The Reds have turned a corner toward contention in 2020 and beyond and in order to keep turning corners the Reds must play the young guys who are ready for the Bigs. Until someone younger comes along who can be the regular shortstop, the Reds should hold on to J. Iglesias or Galvis, not both. JVM should be at second base in 2020.

  4. BigRedMike

    Might be concerning that he has 116 PA with a 0-2 count and 47 with a 2-0 count.

    3.6% walk rate is not encouraging

    Iglesias is not a good hitter, but, he would be a dependable 8 hitter as long as the defense stays. Not sure why the Reds would sign him with other options available.

    • Ashley Davis

      He’s never had a high walk rate, but he also doesn’t have a high strikeout rate. Right now the other options are Galvis and Peraza, and I don’t know if I’m sold on either.

      Now if the Reds were to go sign free agent Didi Gregorius in the off-season, that would be a better option than all three.

  5. Bill J

    I read an article in Baseball Digest in the late 50s on the subject that showed that then many hitters were better 2 strike hitters than with none of 1 strike.

  6. Ken

    I think they should try to find a way to keep them together. They are why we are winning Votto, Suarez the duo next year.

  7. Pete

    Jesse Winker is put on the 10-day IL retro to Monday so he is out for the Pirate series. Stat hunting: since Jesse has been out Phil Ervin has a wRC+ of 43. If Phil can hit RHP, he needs to show it this weekend,

  8. Steve Schoenbaechler

    Nice article. Agreed. I will say, I believe he’s serviceable at SS, but there’s better out there.

    Can we get others? That’s something else. I’m not sure we can. For, if we don’t do something internal, we have to rely on other teams being able to offer us something. There’s little in the FA market this off season, I don’t believe any better than Jose is.