The Cincinnati Reds (45-53) defeated the Milwaukee Brewers (53-49) by a score of 6-5 at Miller Park, Monday night.

Okay…I’ll be honest, I really had no clue had to frame that, so I kept it simple. This was one of the single most stressful wins I can remember. I mean, sure, there probably have been more stressful wins to endure, as a fan, but I cannot remember one. Let me explain.

Sonny Gray (ND, 3.29 ERA) pitched an absolutely phenomenal six innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts. His curveball was ridiculous:

He kept the Brewers at bay, for two thirds of the game, and put the Reds in a position to win.

The lineup was also effective, which is not something we have said a bunch, but it really was a decent night at the plate for the Reds. They had 12 hits in 36 at-bats, including 5-for-10 with runners in scoring position, and left just one more runner on base than did score (seven).

With the game tied at one, Jose Iglesias hit a single that deflected off of the pitcher into centerfield and scored Yasiel Puig, from second. Then, with Joey Votto on base, Eugenio Suarez delivered a few insurance runs:

That would prove important, as we move forward. After Amir Garrett got the Reds out of a bases loaded jam in the seventh, he allows a single to Mike Moustakas to start the eighth. David Bell decided to bring in Raisel Iglesias, then. If you didn’t watch the game, you missed some frustrating pitching. Iglesias proceeds to allow a single to Jesus Aguilar and a walk to Keston Hiura to load the bases with no one out. 

A very generous appeal call, by the first base umpire, bails Iglesias out of walking in a run, as Orlando Arcia fails to check a swing on ball four. It was an ill-gotten gain, as it turned out, because the very next batter, Tyler Saladino (and his .173 slugging percentage) launched a 419-foot grand slam to dead-centerfield. The Reds three-run lead turned into a one-run deficit. 

Here we go again, right? Wrong.

The Brewers had not lost a game, when leading after eight innings this season, but they did on Monday. Wandy Peralta and Jared Hughes combined to close out the win as the Reds defeated the Brewers.

I’m going to go recover from this one, now. Here’s Geno to make you smile:

Tomorrow, the Reds go for a road series win as Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.97) takes the mound. Opposite him will be Milwaukee’s Zach Davies (8-2, 2.79).

Box scores!

Batting AB R H RBI BB SO LOB AVG
Senzel CF 4 0 2 0 1 1 0 0.276
Votto 1B 5 1 2 1 0 0 2 0.260
Suarez, E 3B 5 2 2 4 0 2 0 0.253
Puig RF 3 1 1 0 1 1 0 0.261
-Garrett P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000
-VanMeter PH, 2B 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.236
Peraza 2B, LF 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.241
Ervin LF, RF 3 0 1 0 1 2 1 0.347
– Iglesias, R P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000
– Peralta P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000
– Hughes P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000
Iglesias, J SS 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 0.281
Graterol C 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.200
Gray, S P

1

0 1 0 0 0 0 0.172
Winker PH

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.255
Lorenzen P, LF

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.273
Dietrich PH

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

0.215
Totals

34

5

12

6

3

6

4

HR – Suarez 2 (26)

2B – Puig (14)
Team RISP – 5-for-10
SB – Ervin (2)
Pitching IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Gray, S 6.0 4 1 1 2 7 0 3.29
Lorenzen 0.2 0 0 0 2 1 0 3.51
Garrett 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1.88
Iglesias, R 0.2 3 3 3 1 2 1 4.60
Peralta, W (1-1) 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.94
Hughes, S (1) 0.1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2.93
Totals 6.2 4 1 1 4 8 0

30 Responses

  1. Sliotar

    Nice to see the gut-wrenching ending goes the Reds way. Has the other way a few times in 2019. Kudos Suarez.

    Thought experiment – NBA teams often trade bad contracts, or players needing a change.

    I looked up trading Raisel Iglesias for Cardinals “closer” Carlos Martinez.
    I use quotations because Martinez is so shaky right now, he makes JJ Hoover a Hall of Fame Candidate. Martinez all but blew a 6-2 10th inning lead at Pittsburgh tonight.

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

    The Reds would have to throw in Amir Garrett to get close to even value.

    Site isn’t “end all, be all” but it shows that Iglesias’ age, performance and usage (8th inning…yikes) really doesn’t seem to make him a valuable trade chip in 2019.

    • Pete

      He’s a penny stock at the moment. As we discussed, Iglesias should only close and only pitch the 9th inning or later. First priority with Rasiel is build back his value then move him. This will probably be mid-2020 earliest given how far his star has fallen but if the Reds have one thing in abundance it’s time.

  2. Scott Gennett

    This has been really a down year for Raisel Iglesias, wonder what could be the issue. As far as known, there’re no injury issues, nor speed concerns.

  3. Scott Gennett

    Last season, IF (Votto, Gennett, Suarez, Peraza) had an overall .830 OPS. This season (Votto, 2B, Iglesias, Suarez) is down to .750, including Dietrich’s .883.

  4. Scott Gennett

    I hope FO will be able to maintain the roster’s core of Castillo, Gray, Disco, Garrett, Lorenzen, Suarez, Senzel, Ervin & Winker after the trade line. I’d try to workout contract extensions with Puig, Iglesias and Wood (if finally healthy). C, 1B & 2B are also covered for the time being with Tucker, Casali, Votto, Peraza and VanMeter, so the real needs for next season would be concentrated around the bullpen, another starter and perhaps a top hitting catcher. Not returning (traded or released at the end of the season): Roark, Hughes, Hernandez, Gennett, Dietrich.

      • Pee

        From the article linked:

        “Hopefully, I continue to play well,” he said. “If I do have success, I get to go out there and play. That’s all anyone can ask for. It’s always hard coming off the bench. Either way, I look at it as this is my opportunity to go in and get a hit. Try to conquer that challenge – do my best and help the team win.”

        His attitude will take him a long way at some point. Very happy to see this. Untll/if they trade Puig, I think Bell will platoon Phil with Jesse and I have no problem with this. But in the end both need to play full-time. oonto Puig is a dubious decision at best, holding onto him and losing him after the season is doubly bad. The younger guys need the time on the field.

        Phil made a base running blunder in the game but he did single, walk and steal a base as well…..

      • Jefferson Green

        Guys like Ervin and Van Meter may wind up as solid contributors, but they are not part of a core to build around at this point – they are the ones who build around the core of players like Senzel, Suarez, etc. I would love to see him break out and become more than what he has projected over the last several years – and he has been improving, for sure, but the most likely good outcome for the Reds at this point is Ervin as the 4th outfielder.

      • Pete

        JG, I hear you but Ervin keeps on banging. VanMeter was the best hitter in AAA. and not by a little, his wRC+ is an astonishing 173 the closest guy to him is at 150. You’re probably right in your assessment but let’s give the kids a close look just in case. I would suggest looking more at objective evidence than relying on someone’s pedigree.

        Honestly, you do sound like a guy in the Reds FO I’ll give you that.

      • Roger Garrett

        Price said the same about Winker.Funny or maybe not so funny that the Reds never give some guys legit chances but never move on from them while others get soooooooooo many chances and years and never move on from them either.Reds love all their players and it has little or nothing to do with performance its like a Mother’s love in some respects.

      • Lwblogger2

        I’m not so sure Ervin isn’t a better overall player thank Winker. At minimum, since Bell doesn’t like Winker against LHP, Ervin should be in there then. Winker is overall the better hitter and his offensive upside seems way higher than Ervin but something clicked with Ervin last year. He’s getting it. He’s a 1st-round talent that in my opinion is being undervalued.

  5. Mike Adams

    Jeff Carr, I was one of those suggesting a boxscore in the Game Recap.
    I did not mean an actual boxscore but rather a quick link to it.
    Based on various formats you have provided, an actual boxscore may be hard to do.
    Can’t speak for what others wanted but I wanted to clarify my suggestion.
    Thanks for your work at RLN.

    • Jeff Carr

      Thanks, Mike! Yeah, I just can’t get it to look right. Tweaking some things for my next recap. Thanks for hitting me back up! And thanks for reading!

  6. Klugo

    Riggy gotta be headed to the IL, right??

    • Ethan L

      The NFL has treated PUP list. Iggy should go to the MUP list: mentally unable/unwilling to perform.

  7. KYPodman

    Iglesias is currently not able to through any off speed pitch for a strike. Hitters know this and are sitting fast ball. Also, for some reason he has shied away from his change-up which is typically pretty good. Hitters are no longer “off balance” on his stuff. Just my opinion and what I can tell (see) from watching.

    • VaRedsFan

      I concur. Exactly what I was thinking, when he couldn’t throw an off speed strike to Arcia. They were sitting on the fastball.

  8. TR

    A win to lessen some of the shock of the recent first two losses to St. Louis.

  9. Jim Walker

    Another productive game for Phil Ervin versus RH pitching. He was on base 2x in 4 PAs with a hit and a walk. He did however get caught in a TootBlan. Ultimately it was Ervin’s fault but a person has to wonder if the 1B coach wasn’t also caught short not seeing the 2Bman slipping into the uncovered 1st base behind PE.

    • Big Ed

      I thought Ervin had a clear shot to draw an interference from the fielder in front of him, if he had kept running. I need to see another replay on it, though.

      The buck stops with Ervin on the tootblan, though.

      Ervin has a OPS against RH of .688. Winker’s is .838. If they trade Puig, both will get more ABs.

      • Jim Walker

        OPS versus LH pitching in 2019, Ervin .962; Winker .463. Career v. LH Ervin .954; Winker ,553

        They are an ideal platoon match right now with Ervin being clearly stronger versus his weaker side than Winker versus his weaker side.

        It is right at a year ago since Ervin was brought up and made a starter when Winker was injured, in that year versus all pitching, he has had a .353/.480/ .833 slash line and wRC+ of 118 over 286 PAs.

        From the time Winker was brought up to stay in late July/ August of 2017 until he went down with season ending injury last July was also about a year. During that period versus all pitching he slashed at .396/,464/.860 with a 131 wRC+ over 451PAs.

        As would be expected since there are more RH pitchers than LH pitchers, Winker’s numbers are marginally better than Ervin’s. However just as with the 2019 figures. Ervin’s superiority from his weaker side vs Winker’s weaker side cuts into the overall difference.

        So, why do we hear chatter that Winker needs room to grow his weaker side but not a lot of chatter than Ervin should get the same chance?

  10. joshtrum

    Maybe it’s just me, but in seeing the way this team is competitive night in/out (for most part) I’m just getting 2009 reds vibes. I really feel this team can finish alright and improve upon a solid foundation next year. I know people are quick to write this team off, but that’s what happens when you use advanced metrics to scrutinize every part of a players game. I’m all for advanced analytics, but just like anything in life you can over analyze something. This is also coming from someone who suffered through all of Friday’s game in person. No rose colored glasses here(well maybe the frames)

  11. Dan Patterson

    Can someone tell Bell that the shift never works with lefties when Garrett is on the bump. They are always late on the swing thus hitting a weak grounder or liner to left field and then Bell takes Garrett out and then inherited runs are scored against Garrett. Not hard to figure out!!

    • Frank

      It is hard to figure out, apparently, because the data shows that you are in fact very incorrect.

      Lefties go the opposite way against Amir Garrett 13.3% of the time in the “traditional shift”…..

      You can find this information on Fangraphs in the splits tool section.

  12. RedsMonk65

    OK, after a relatively sleepless night (over-stimulated after that ending, to be sure), I have recovered, had my morning coffee, and caught up with all the postings.

    Not much to add to what’s been said above. Mostly:

    Iglesias is a conundrum. Not sure what to do about him, except (for now) not put him in such situations. Who else can close? Romano, perhaps? I’m not really sure about Lorenzen there.

    In the end, the first commenter above said it all:
    “Nice to see the gut-wrenching ending go the Reds way.”

    For a change.

    Let’s do it again tonight. Let’s have a Reds’ laugher, though, boys. These close games (either way) or killing me.

  13. Don

    Jeff,
    I like the article and write-up. Went to bed after Suarez 1st home run in 7th as I had a 4:30 AM EST wake up this morning. I figured the reds would hold down the brewers down with Garrett and Lorenzen available. Both glad and sad I missed the 8th and 9th innings.

    Glad some of the right handed batters had some success vs a right handed pitchers, goods use of looking at opposing pitchers metrics to create lineup. Have to give Bell and his staff credit for using the numbers and creating that starting lineup. Gray looked great again after getting out of the 1st.

    Hopefully the team can string a few wins together and gain confidence in themselves. Would be nice to beat the Brewers in this series and then have a great series @ home vs the pirates this weekend to move out of 5th place in the division.

    • Jeff Carr

      Don, you made the smart decision, man. Was pretty much useless for the better part of this morning. I’m really hoping they can beat up on them ol Pirates. This last place crap is tiresome

  14. Centerfield

    RI kicked something in the dugout after he was taken out. My first thought was that he probably broke his foot. I was less upset with him than in previous outings. He just came back from paternity leave and Lorenzen & Garrett didn’t do their jobs in front on him. You have to wonder about the home run pitch, this guy was being pitched in all night and was obviously looking for just that pitch. I put that brain cramp that on the catcher or bench. I think Barnhardt would have made a difference in this situation.

  15. Roger Garrett

    Relievers are relievers and you just never know.Reds signed him for 3 years and very reasonable but you just never ever sign guys that long to pitch out of the pen.He may bounce back over the next couple of months and may pick up next year and be lights out or fall off a cliff.Its just another example of selling when a player’s value is at his highest or holding on to the player too long.Building up his trade value is just pie in the sky.Teams may still take a chance on him if for no other reason to add length to their pen but nobody sees him as a lights out closer.In fact is there such a thing any more?It would be the last thing on my list if I were building a team.