After what looked like was going to be a brutal defeat last night, Eugenio Suarez gave everyone in Reds country a much-needed victory with a bomb to right field to give the Reds a 6-5 lead in the ninth inning.  I don’t believe for a second that his home run was only 433 feet.

The Reds (45-53) will try to do it again tonight against the Brewers (53-49), except with less drama. First pitch is 8:10 EDT from Miller Park.

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA FIP xFIP K% BB%
Tanner Roark 102.0 3.97 4.26 4.48 22.90% 7.50%
Zach Davies 109.2 2.79 4.30 5.18 14.80% 7.60%

REDS

I think he’ll get one more start in a Reds uniform after tonight, but it is possible this could be Tanner Roark’s last start as a Cincinnati Red. If the Reds are going to sell at the trade deadline (and they should), Roark is a prime candidate. His 3.97 ERA is the lowest it’s been since 2016, and he’s been a innings eater in the middle of the rotation. It’s hard not to imagine a team in playoff contention wouldn’t want Roark.

Of his 19 starts, only three have been under 5.0 innings. He’s also striking out more batters than in recent years. His K% is up about three percent from a year ago. Roark has been a little shaky recently, with a 7.16 ERA in July. However, one of those starts was at Coors Field. If you take away just three of the seven runs he gave up there, Roark has given up nine runs in 16.1 innings instead of 13 runs.

Roark hasn’t pitched well against the Brewers this season. In 11 innings, he has given up 12 hits and seven runs while striking out 11 and walking four. Especially watch out for the home run ball, as Roark has allowed seven home runs to the Brewers players with ten or more at-bats against him.

BREWERS

According to Fangraphs WAR, Zach Davies has been the Brewers’ third best pitcher this season, behind Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader. The Brewers have had a rough season in terms of pitching, but Davies has been one of the bright spots at times. He’s not a high strikeout–he pitches to contact instead, with a career high 83.5 Contact% this season. He’s always been that type of pitcher, but this season, he’s been even better. And July has been his best month. He’s given up only one earned run in three starts with nine strikeouts.

Davies has faced the Reds twice already in 2019. He pitched fairly well at Great American Ball Park in early April, going five innings and giving up two runs on four hits. But the Reds are also responsible for his worst start of 2019. On May 22, he gave up six runs on six hits in three innings.

Davies throws five pitches, but relies very heavily on his sinker (57.5%). This season, he did something different and started throwing his change up a lot more, while limiting his curve. In 2018, he threw his change up only 12.3% and his curve 16.3% of the time. In 2019, he has thrown his change up 28.9% and his curve only 3.6%. It’s paid off of him, as he has 30 strikeouts off the change up and has a Whiff% of 31.0%.

Here’s how the Reds have fared against Davies:

Bullpens

No words needed here. Except to say that Raisel Iglesias needs to find some resiliency and figure out what is going wrong this season.

In all seriousness, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why Iglesias is struggling so much. It’s obvious something is going on with his pitch mechanics or he wouldn’t be in this situation. But I think it’s also mental. If you keep failing at something you’re usually good at over and over again, it’s going to wear you down mentally. Iglesias is human, just like the rest of us. He’s not purposefully trying to lose games.

Lineups

REDS BREWERS
1. Nick Senzel (CF)
2. Joey Votto (1B)
3. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
4. Yasiel Puig (RF)
5. Jesse Winker (LF)
6. Scooter Gennett (2B)
7. Jose Iglesias (SS)
8. Ryan Lavarnway (C)
9. Tanner Roark (P)
1. Lorenzo Cain (CF)
2. Christian Yelich (RF)
3. Yasmani Grandal (C)
4. Mike Moustakas (3B)
5. Ryan Braun (LF)
6. Eric Thames (1B)
7. Keston Hiura (2B)
8. Tyler Saladino (SS)
9. Zach Davies (P)

News and Notes

-Alex Wood made another rehab start last night. And the Chattanooga Lookouts snapped a 14-game (!!) losing streak.

-There was a minor roster move today.

-Here’s some pre-game reading for you:

137 Responses

  1. Steve Schoenbaechler

    I would still take my time with Wood. No reason to bring him back quickly. I would bring him back to get just long enough to make a judgement if we should extend him or not.

    • CI3J

      That’s assuming Wood even wants to extend. I think it’s telling we’ve heard nothing of the sort to date.

      • jazzmanbbfan

        Since he’s been injured all year, I don’t know why the Reds would be talking about an extension. Let’s see how he pitches before going down that path.

  2. Indy Red Man

    Ervin last 30 days:

    21-48 (.437 & 1.210 ops) with 2 doubles, 3 triples, 2 hrs, and 2 steals. He barely missed a HR to left and then had a hit to right. He takes pitches. I know they like Winker, but its a shame to see Ervin sit. They’d have to give Scooter away, but clearing out 2B for Senzel would be their best bet at this point. I guess they could trade Puig, but he needs to get paid!! He did the impossible last night! He made Yelich look like a Red! The one being taken advantage of by smarter and harder working players!

    • Jim Walker

      Here is a Winker/ Ervin comparison that’s interesting. Ervin for his entire MLB career has better OPS and wRC+ numbers from his strong side (RH), .391/.563/.954; wRC+149 than Winker has from his strong side (LH), .390/ .502/.892; wRC+134. Ervin also has better numbers from his weaker side: 318/.388/.706, wRC+ 87 vs Winker, .295 /.258/.553; w2RC+55.

      It is only when they are looked at versus all pitching that Winker has an edge, .374/.459/.833; 120 over Ervin, .343/.447/.790; 108. This is clearly because there are so many more RH than LH pitchers, a lucky thing for Winker.

  3. Jreis

    Honestly I like our chances with Ervin and Peraza in the lineup. Over Scooter and Winker. They just give you a different dimension when they are in there

    • CFD3000

      Agree on Ervin, not so much on Peraza. What does he add besides not striking out?

      • Jreis

        He just seems a little more engaged in the game right now than Scooter. I think his defense is better right now and if he gets on base he just has a better chance of getting from first to third or second to home than Scooter right now. Just more athleticism right now

    • Danny Ray Chapman

      Can someone tell me their take on Lavarnway behind the plate? IMO, he deserved to be backup to Sanchez in Yankees lineup, ahead of Austin Romine and certainly their third catcher. I was glad to see him picked up by the Reds. But he could be traded in the next 7 days.

  4. CFD3000

    I’m an anal retentive engineer, so I can’t let this slide. C. Trent tweeted that Trammell homered, and was somehow a homer short of the cycle. Huh?

    It won’t be a popular opinion, but I think the Scooter Gennett experiment needs to end. He has no trade value, there’s no reason the Reds should resign or extend him, and he’s blocking at least one if not two big prospects – Van Meter, and/or depending on what you think about who should play the outfield, Ervin (because if Senzel moves to second, Ervin gets to play the outfield). His WRC+ so far this (admittedly brief) year is -1. 100 is league average. So… not good. Time to get some production from the second baseman besides the occasional Dietrich HBP. Free the kids!

    I’m excited to see what they get in return for Roark (who will be traded, right?) and what becomes of the latest new Joey Votto. I love seeing that he’s still making adjustments to his approach at the plate, and I love hearing that he’s not okay with how he’s hitting. And I really love the feedback from Jim Day about his early BP results. So… will it translate into live games? And I’m excited to see the Reds beat Davies tonight so they can pummel Chacin tomorrow and sweep the Brewers. Go Reds!

  5. Seat101

    I went to bed last night before the grand slam, stating “I’ve already seen this movie!” Well it turns out that I should’ve stayed for the ending credits.

    If Iglesias has physical problems and hasn’t told anyone he’s being selfish. It hurts his team. If he’s incapable of pitching well in any situation that’s not a save situation then get rid of him because That is not what this team needs.

    I haven’t read any of Bell’s comments about the pitching last night. Did he have any comments?

    • Indy Red Man

      Raisel hit 99 mph last week I think? I don’t think he’s hurt…just grooving pitches. Iggy, Lorenzen, and Garrett all go 3-0 and 3-1 on guys constantly, but Iggy seems to get hurt the most.

      • VaRedsFan

        Several have noted that he can’t throw his breaking pitches for strikes. Players sit on the fastball, with no fear of being rung up on the soft stuff

      • Tomn

        Iggy is getting behind in the count too often. He looks to me like he’s pressing and over-throwing. He looks strong to me.

    • VaRedsFan

      I tell you, looks like a totally different player since the stance change.

      • RedsMonk65

        Think you’re right. Let’s hope.

  6. VaRedsFan

    Votto and Geno strike again for 2

  7. RedsMonk65

    If only we could play the first inning over and over, every night.

  8. Jreis

    He just seems a little more engaged in the game right now than Scooter. I think his defense is better right now and if he gets on base he just has a better chance of getting from first to third or second to home than Scooter right now. Just more athleticism right now

  9. Jim Walker

    It is great to see Winker and Ervin pushing each other down the road. And don’t forget VanMeter is lurking just behind them.

    • Sliotar

      But, but…. this team “has” to re-sign Puig.

      (LOL. that is outright general trolling).

      I don’t mind Puig, but there are kids who need to see the field.
      Cheap, controllable kids.

      • Indy Red Man

        Well Winker is terrible defensively and hasn’t hit lefties. Ervin is playing great, but so was Casali til they started really playing him alot. They’ve needed more RH power since Suarez started. So yeah…..they NEED to resign Puig! He brings an attitude and energy that they lack as well…plus his big arm and speed! They have none of that. Winker and Ervin don’t throw well. Cut him loose and they’re looking for the same thing this winter.

        Not to mention….everyone but the Reds plays their top/major league ready 21-22 year olds. They’d only get maybe/maybe not teenagers for Puig most likely.

      • RojoBenjy

        The Reds don’t have MLB ready 20-22 year olds though.

      • Indy Red Man

        Their names are Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker.

  10. Seat101

    I understand sending him. You had the pitcher coming up next

    • VaRedsFan

      Worth the chance….the catcher appeared to be blocking the plate….wonder if they will look at it?

  11. VaRedsFan

    Now can they keep the foot on the gas for the whole game…Or will the Brewers eventually catch up…

  12. doofus

    Votto and Suarez have the Brewer tv clowns searching. Their fall back is to proclaim that the GABP is a “band box” and that is why the Reds hit so many home runs. They never mention that they are hitting HR’s in MILLER PARK where it is well known to be kind to home runs.

    Bill Schroeder (former Brewer catcher) and some other stooge are their “personalities.”

  13. RedsMonk65

    Don’t think I would have sent Scooter around on that one, all things considered. Ah, well. 4 runs in the 1st is good. Keep it up! it likely won’t be enough.

  14. Indy Red Man

    What in the world? Is Scooter only running 80% or something? I have a better arm then Braun & his lollipop. Well atleast they beat the tar out of Davies that inning!

    • Sliotar

      Ashley’s set-up has Davies as MIL’s third-best pitcher. Yikes.

      David Stearns better be working the phones. With Woodruff hurt, this team feels a couple of pitchers short of the playoffs.

      Missing with Yelich’s 2019 stats is like prime-Votto level criminal.

  15. Eric B

    Ala Billy Hatcher. He would send them around everytime until he got so many thrown out and then would hardly send anyone. It did appear the catcher blocked before recieving. Maybe after a 4 run lead Bell didn’t want to risk another ejection.

    • VaRedsFan

      Pretty sure if the pitcher wasn’t on deck, he holds Scooter 99% of the time

    • Indy Red Man

      Braun might have the worst arm (now that Schebler’s out) in the bigs. They had to send Scooter there. The ball was hit pretty hard, but he must’ve got a bad break or isn’t running 100% yet?

  16. Indy Red Man

    Here comes a 5-6 winning streak and Jocketty tells his boy Dickie “BUY BUY BUY”! This team? On paper they look more then good enough! Run differential is really good as well, but Bill Parcells nailed it “They are what their record says they are”

    • Sliotar

      That’s funny stuff.

      Jeff Passan on ESPN wrote that even though Roark was one of his top 10 trade targets, the Reds may decide to ride it out with him.

      • Indy Red Man

        Thom is going on & on about Roark’s “veteran-ness/grit”….lol. Of course he is!

        I have to admit I thought he was a bad signing. I saw all the HRs allowed as a Nat, but he’s been solid. The thing is…he’ll be 33 in Oct. and they’re not going anywhere this year. If you don’t get a return that you like then keep him, but if they get any offers with any potential then they have to move him along. Its not like his era is 2.60 and they’re 1.5 games out. They could replace him with someone or just make it bullpen day like Tampa does. They have 13 pitchers!

  17. Seat101

    Aaahgghhhhhh!

    Jesse.

    Slow as molasses in February

  18. Eric B

    Winker looked like a goose landing on a frozen pond.

  19. Sliotar

    This game has gotten sleepy…hope it does not bite the Reds.

    Third time through starts next inning, need to nip Davies for a couple more runs.

  20. VaRedsFan

    Finally a tack on. Geno makes them pay for the error.

  21. Indy Red Man

    Bell got bailed out there…..should’ve had Senzel running with Votto up. Milw is flat though. They were bad last night til we started walking everyone. Reds need to sweep!!

  22. Seat101

    The Dodgers now have two spaces on the 40 man roster.

    I wonder what’s coming next…

  23. RedsMonk65

    Ervin in for Da Wink against the LHP. Hope it pays off

  24. VaRedsFan

    Philly Ervin!!!! 3 run triple.
    Great call by Bell so subbing him in.

  25. VaRedsFan

    Scooter drove it deep off the lefty…sac fly

  26. Indy Red Man

    Puig beats out a hit. Ervin gets another triple because he can run. Speed doesn’t slump. Except for Billy:)

    Ervin is somebody they need to really examine! He just missed a HR down the LF line last night and hits the ball the other way so naturally! He takes pitches! Wow!!

    • Pete

      His raw talent is intriguing along with VanMeter ability to sting the baseball, the Reds might get really lucky with either of these or really, really fortunate with both. Hey, we’re Reds fans we should be aloud to dream.

  27. Reddawg12

    I absolutely cannot stand Thom. After Ervin’s 3 run triple “I’m wondering if Puig is hurt. As a matter of fact I’m quite sure he’s hurt. Or maybe not. I don’t know. Maybe he’s just out of gas. We’ll see. Hopefully not.”

    • rex

      Thom is the only trade i’m hoping happens.

      he makes me miss Gorge Grand

      • Jack

        You and me both. I get so tired of his pontificating, his opinions that are totally unsupported by any evidence.

  28. RedsMonk65

    Brewers starting to rev up. Shut ’em down, guys.

    Might be it for Roark after this.

  29. George

    Was it last week the Reds imploded with a 8-9 run lead?? I think we have seen this act before.

    • RedsMonk65

      No large lead is safe enough. To be sure.

  30. VaRedsFan

    Who here besides me is worried…up 9-2.

    • Sliotar

      Big stop there.

      Reds analytics will have to figure out how long he can keep doing it, but Roark is a grinder. Gives everything he has.

      Glad he qualfies for win here.

    • RedsMonk65

      Not worried quite yet. Definitely wary.

  31. RedsMonk65

    Escaped with limited damage done.

    Roark probably finished.

  32. Indy Red Man

    My boy Trea Turner with the Cycle tonite!! Fantasy cash leagues loving it::)) Wouldn’t want to play the Nats in the playoffs! Soto, Turner, Rendon, and Robles with Scherzer and Strasburg. They need some help in the pen, but thats it!

  33. Pete

    Votto looks vintage. Could it be? It would solve several problems.

    • RedsMonk65

      That would be fantastic. So let it be so.

    • rex

      a few days ago I moved my hands down a little on my steering wheel and now I drive much better….it works….I wish I’d tried it last spring

  34. VaRedsFan

    Votto gets those 2 right back.
    Low and inside….exactly what he is supposed to attempt to do…yank it …pull side!!

    • Pete

      This was the best swing I’ve seen him take all year. Looked effortless, ball jumped off the bat. Don’t want to get ahead of myself but if…

      • RedsMonk65

        Thinking the same thing. He jumped all over that. Sweet. Let’s hope it continues.

  35. E2n2

    Best birthday present ever – Joey Votto being Joey Votto! 🙂

    • Indy Red Man

      I don’t want to get carried away. Father Time never loses, but alot of guys still had some fight left at his age! Maybe like a .870 ops next year with 20/.400 obp? Thats not farfetched

  36. Eric B

    I haven’t seen Votto hit one like that in a while. Whatever he changed with the grip may just be working. Growing the beard? Looking meaner? just keep doing it.

  37. Jack

    Man, the way this bullpen has pitched Bell chancing it by putting in the second team already

    • Pete

      Bullpen has imploded, nothing more to say.

  38. Don

    since Votto has stood up straighter against the cards, holding bat at end and wearing the pants to his cleats he has been crushing the ball even on his outs. He looks to be swinging and hitting the ball and not trying to guide the ball to some place and hope it falls.

    Hoping this is start of a trend for him.

    • VaRedsFan

      I’ve been asking this question for 1.5 years, on why he changed his approach after a highly successful 2017.

      Nobody could ever explain to me how he went from MVP runner up in a great season, to totally changing his approach in 2018, by bent arm swinging, inside out swinging, and check swinging in the very next year. Trying to hit every inside pitch to left field was not Votto from the year before. All they kept saying was he was getting old…I didn’t buy it

      • Indy Red Man

        It is puzzling. From what I could tell…opponents just started pounding him inside. That would’ve been my scouting report 10 years ago. He quit getting so many pitches away and out over the plate which he used to hit out at gabp to left….or gappers on the road.

    • Jack

      Votto is smart but maybe also a little stubborn and thought he could make it work if he just practiced enough I think. Frustrated enough to finally abandon it maybe? Anyway I am much happier to believe he just took his approach too far rather than he got old all of a sudden. You can’t fix old age…not without chemical help anyway.

  39. VaRedsFan

    Maybe Stephenson should stick to curve balls.

    • RedAlert

      11-2 lead and STILL can’t hide Robert Stephenson – geeze ridiculous

  40. Indy Red Man

    BobSteve is back!! What a shame because he’s got fantastic stuff! You still have to locate though! He’s always behind in the count so he starts off the guy with a meatball right down the middle. Ouch.

    • RedsMonk65

      At least we have a little bit of cushion to absorb his learning curve (if he’s learning).

      Still not comfortable, though, even at 12-5, the way these two teams go at it sometimes.

  41. Hanawi

    Hope Bell doesn’t regret switching out Puig, Votto, and Winker.

  42. Indy Red Man

    The A’s 2B is hitting .122. I think they’re too cheap to pay Scooter though? He could get it back pretty quickly though. If I was in the race and needed offense then I’d pick him up!

  43. Eric B

    Figity, pulling on his sleeve again, terribly anxious. Stephenson may need the team shrink to get his head in a good place. He can pitch. He just has always lacked confidence and can’t say stupid stuff on postgame interviews anymore.

  44. VaRedsFan

    Lavarnway might want to start getting 3 outta 4 opportunities to start

  45. Indy Red Man

    Game is 2:40 in and technically only 2/3 over.

  46. Greg Pearson

    That is an absurd rule. If they want to call the runner out at first for the double play, fine. But sending the other runners back to their basis is not logical whatsoever.

  47. Indy Red Man

    Save some for tomorrow!! Last couple times we crushed somebody then they couldn’t score the next day or two. Cards and somebody?

    • VaRedsFan

      Noooooo….that’s never happened

  48. Seat101

    Our pinch-hitter seem to be doing very well tonight!

  49. RojoBenjy

    Big Sally in da house!

    Wonder what he’ll show?

    Honestly curious.

  50. RedsMonk65

    Welcome back, Sal. Bring us home.

  51. VaRedsFan

    Sal looks more fit than I remember.

    • RedsMonk65

      I had heard/read somewhere that he had slimmed down.

  52. Seat101

    Well I’m heading to bed guys and gals ladies and gentlemen boys and girls and children of all ages.

    Please try your darndest to hold the lead.

    I understand it Pete Rose just said that the only person who could be his all-time hit record is Ted Williams

  53. Eric B

    I don’t like what if’s but what if this version would have shown up against the cubbies and those dirty birds. They would have been right in the hunt and out of the cellar already. Still could be if anything even similar to this would continue for while. Goodness Gracious!

    • RedsMonk65

      So let it be written. So let it be done.

    • Sliotar

      I am not sure anything has fundamentally changed….

      Caught the Brewers pitching in a rut
      (maybe it just stinks, except for Woodruff and Hader)

      Maybe a series sweep changes Reds thinking from seller to standing pat?
      Hope that is not the case.

      This team still has holes at 2B, SS, C and some spots in bullpen.

      • Sliotar

        We are living in a world where the Giants are leading the Cubs, could go to 52-50, in wild card hunt, and they were in “sell everyone not named Posey” mode six weeks ago.

        Crazy season.

      • Grand Salami

        Agreed. Getting back near ASG standing is not a reason to ‘stay the course’ for fan enthusiasm, let alone think about leveraging assets to buy ‘now’ type players.

        This team has Moxie. They bottomed out and are fighting back. The kids need lots of PT (Winker, Senzel, Ervin, VM, and even Peraza) because it’s their show next year. Move the expiring to get things to support them or move them too if an upgrade with similar control presents itself!

  54. Don

    Gennett has 2 hits tonight, I think first time since coming back.
    Perraza has key hit off bench.
    Ervin key hit as pinch hitter.

    Overall great hitting night and every time brewers got a run, reds came right back and put the same number or more on the board.

    Roark pitched well

    Sal does look like he has lost a lot of weight since last year.
    Hope he can pitch a solid 3 innings and get a save in 1st game back with a +9 or more run differential win.

    Hopefully Sims has another great start on Wednesday afternoon.

  55. RedsMonk65

    Cashing in — Hope to see the final score still at 14(+) to 5 when I awake.

  56. Don

    Reds will be in 4th place after tonight (assuming that keep lead). Hoping they win a few more to put some space between them and pirates.

    • RojoBenjy

      Is something wrong with GameDay app? Pitches 1 and 3 to Piña are shown as well over the outside half of the plate.

      • Pete

        Jeff Brantley thinks because Sal was wild early on the ump was squeezing and it looked like it. I don’t know if Sal needs to be so fine given his stuff. I like what I see of Romano but he has some rough edges. He is coming back for the 9th..

      • RojoBenjy

        Thanks Pete.

        I really don’t like it when umpires do that.

        Wish is could watch tonight.

      • Pete

        You bet. Really impressed with Sal’s stuff, he consistently throws hard and has some movement on the ball. Brantley said he has a real bulldog mentality.

  57. Don

    Love Thom trying to downplay Reds run differential and claiming it is all due the 9 Marlin and Giants games.

    He left out that they are -14 vs the Dodgers 6 games whom as by far the best team in baseball @ +165

    The +20 vs the marlins 3 games is almost offset by the dodgers.

    Anyone can cherry pick a few games and make a criticism, he seems to really tries to down play any Reds positives with a negative comment

    • RojoBenjy

      And that is why I want him to find employment elsewhere.

  58. Pete

    Sal Romano threw several pitches 98 mph. Hope he sticks around long enough for Doc Johnson to work him.

  59. RojoBenjy

    Anyone notice how Manny Piña is Reds’ kryptonite?

    Seriously, for like 3 seasons running.