After a thrilling victory Monday night that saw the Cincinnati Reds (43-48) come from behind to beat the Chicago Cubs (50-44) for the seventh time in their last ten games against the division leader, the Reds look to win their fourth straight series against the Cubs tonight.

What’s even more rare than a single night game at Wrigley? Two night games in a row at Wrigley. But that’s what we get this week, as first pitch will again be at 8:05 ET.

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA FIP xFIP K% BB%
Anthony DeSclafani 86.2 4.26 4.65 4.44 24.1% 7.0%
Alec Mills (AAA stats) 80.0 4.73 5.32 5.38 22.7% 7.0%

REDS

On June 30, Anthony DeSclafani faced the Cubs at Great American Ball Park and pitched six innings of shut out baseball while striking out seven, earning the win in the process. It was one of his best performances of the 2019 season. He built off that start by going to Cleveland the following week and giving up only two runs in six innings, both off home runs from Francisco Lindor. DeSclafani is starting to pitch well at the right time, and has lowered his ERA from 4.70 to 4.26 in that span.

There are two reasons that can be attributed to DeSclafani’s high ERA right now. First, he had a terrible month of May, in which he had a 5.59 ERA and gave up nine home runs in 29.0 innings. He’s given up eight home runs the rest of the season. Second, he has not been a great pitcher the third time through the lineup. Yes, he’s only pitched 14.0 innings when he gets that far into the game, but he still has a 7.71 ERA and only 11 strikeouts. Once hitters have seen him a couple times, DeSclafani hasn’t been fooling a lot of people. However, each of his last two starts have been his longest starts since May 6, and in both starts, he faced 27 and 24 batters, respectively.

Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez both hit DeSclafani well, but watch out for Anthony Rizzo too. He’s only 6-for-29 against DeSclafani, but has two home runs within those six hits.

CUBS

The Cubs will call up Alec Mills to start tonight. Mills has not yet pitched at the major league level in 2019, and he wasn’t exactly tearing it up at Triple-A Iowa. In 80.0 innings, his ERA sits at 4.73 and his FIP is north of 5.00. It’s been the home run that has hurt him this season. He’s given up 15 home runs and his HR/9 is at 1.69. Mills has some upside though, mainly because he throws strikes and doesn’t walk a lot of batters (only 26 in 80.0 innings).

Mills pitched for the Cubs during the second half of last season. In 18.0 innings, Mills had a 4.00 ERA/2.49 FIP while striking out 23 and walking only seven. He has five pitches, but threw mostly his four-seamer, sinker, and change up in what was a very small sample size in 2018.

Bullpens

Both teams should have relatively well-rested bullpens. Raisel Iglesias has pitched in back-to-back games for the Reds. He could be the pitcher who gets a break tonight; however, he has only thrown 36 pitches in those two outings. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in a close game, David Bell calls upon him. And the Reds should get Amir Garrett back for the Cardinals series.

Randy Rosario is the only Cubs reliever to pitch more than one inning since the second half began on Friday, but he faced two batters last night. With the All-Star break being last week, he should still be fairly rested.

Lineups

REDS CUBS
1. Jesse Winker (LF)
2. Joey Votto (1B)
3. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
4. Yasiel Puig (RF)
5. Derek Dietrich (2B)
6. Nick Senzel (CF)
7. Jose Peraza (SS)
8. Kyle Farmer (C)
9. Anthony DeSclafani (P)
1. Kyle Schwarber (LF)
2. Javier Baez (SS)
3. Kris Bryant (3B)
4. Anthony Rizzo (1B)
5. Robel Garcia (2B)
6. Jason Heyward (RF)
7. Albert Almora Jr. (CF)
8. Martin Maldonado (C)
9. Alec Mills (P)

-Only five Reds players have faced Mills before and none have faced him more than three times. Scooter Gennett has two hits off Mills, while Phillip Ervin is 1-for-2.

-Yasiel Puig has been the best hitter in baseball over the last month. Hopefully he can continue hitting this way for awhile.

News, Notes, and Pre-Game Reading

The catching situation may get more dire than it currently is if Curt Casali’s knee gets worse.

José Iglesias is the Reds Heart and Hustle Award winner this season.

Final Thoughts

Please enjoy these GIFs of Luis Castillo’s ridiculously good change up from last night.

 

130 Responses

  1. Rich H

    Some good news for the Reds; Matt Carpenter will be on the IL during their next series.

    • doofus

      Who cares? Carpenter is just another piss ant Cardinal. BFD.

  2. matthew hendley

    Just a reminder disco, Alex Wood is working his way back.

    Beat up on the new kid night.

    • Doc

      Disco should note; Mahle should really take note.
      They are going in opposite directions.

    • matthew hendley

      evidently the new kid wants to be beaten up, the rate that he is HBP Reds players.

  3. C Holbert

    Maybe the Reds should look to get Almora. He is relatively cheap and can play great CF, and hit a little. That would allow Senzel to go back to IF somewhere.

    • doofus

      “We don’t need no stinking Cubs!”

      • doofus

        Correction: “We don’t need stinking Cubs!”

  4. Seat101

    12 pitches. Seven of them to Suarez

  5. Indy Red Man

    On the Reds Over 4.5 tonite + the Twins. Lets Go!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Indy Red Man

        I bet that the Reds will score more then 4.5 runs tonite. So far so good:)

      • doofus

        Now I get it. You are big into wagering the outcome of ball games, given your recent comment about online betting coming to Indiana?

  6. Seat101

    Typical Peraza! Last out of the ending comes at his at bat! Just like last night

    • matthew Hendley

      if had homered instead of doubled, Senzel wouldn’t have been out at the plate

      In all fairness. I mentioned it earlier that I was pumping the Breaks on the peraza bashing for a minute. He has been better as of late. However, he must beat someone from their position and HOLD IT. No freebees.

  7. Indy Red Man

    Gosh….how did Senzel not score on that ball? I guess Wrigley isn’t that big and the ball got off the wall pretty quickly but still? 2 outs….should 1/3 of the way to 2nd and moving on contact. Maybe Peraza is going on a 2nd half heater like last year, but you can’t take 60% of the season off.

    • Seat101

      As I’ve said earlier I’m sure if Santa uses stealth technology when he flies over some of your houses

  8. VaRedsFan

    Said it all last year…Peraza is so much more dangerous when he pulls the ball.

    • Indy Red Man

      When Peraza came up he hit the ball on the ground. He was pretty sneaky with the bunt hits and stole 21 bases in half a season. Problem he’s a bad outfielder. Doesn’t walk or have much power and he’s probably about a C- shortstop defensively.

      Maybe he’s in the wrong park? If he was in a huge park like SF then his counterpart most likely isn’t hitting bombs either. More of his bloops would fall in. GABP is tiny. If you don’t walk or hit HRs and you’re not SSIggy defensively then you can’t be a starter.

  9. Indy Red Man

    Scott Kingery (.890 ops) is really blooming for the Phils. Of course they signed to a long deal a year or 2 ago. I wonder if the Reds could try that with Castillo and Senzel. Save them $$ on the back end….when they’ll hopefully have a winner around those two.

  10. Sliotar

    What is going on with this team? Can’t even get a run in at the gym, and get home without missing runs. Fun times.

    Rizzo has 1 HR, just 1 vs. the Reds this season. Still getting on base (9 for 26), but none of the killer HR blows of last season.

    Hopefully, Disco keeps him in the park. Some of that Cubs lineup…meh.

  11. Indy Red Man

    Disco…what a terrible pitch. That kid looks like a hitter though….saw that last night!
    Sometimes you can just see it immediately whether they hit immediately or not. I like what I saw of JVM, but he didnt crank any like that.

  12. Seat101

    @indy Please tell me how a double off-the-wall is the wrong kind of hit.

    This ought to be fascinating

    • VaRedsFan

      He never said that. He (and me) wondered how Senzel didn’t score on that hit. Without replay we can only speculate that he wasn’t running 100% at the crack of the bat.

    • Indy Red Man

      I don’t understand? Todays game is hr derby….just 162 games worth. Doubles are good, but HRs are better. If you walk and hit doubles then that works. If you don’t walk. You don’t hit HRs. You can’t count to 3. Then I am going to ride you to the point where the drill instructor in Full Metal Jacket looks like Mr Rogers. He wanted the non-hackers out of his beloved Marine Corp. I want the hackers off my beloved Reds!

    • Indy Red Man

      Dude you don’t have to answer although I’m happy to read it, but I’m worn out w/Peraza talk every night. Its my fault if I started it….don’t know?

      My question is this though. Maybe the question isn’t why we crack on Peraza. Maybe its what do you have against Josh Van Meter or Phillip Ervin? Bell had Peraza in LF vs lefties quite a bit despite 1st rounder Ervin being good vs lefties. Peraza never put up 1.100 ops in AAA. Never .800 I don’t think? JVM has!! Why do you hate them? Someone’s career has to die a little for someone else to live in MLB.
      Shouldn’t the guys with the best numbers play over those with weaker numbers?

      • Seat101

        Look, I’m trying to get me and my five-year-old ready for a two day camping trip I was not expecting to make until yesterday morning.

        Did I tell you I turn 65 next month?

        Anyway allow me some time between posts. You guys really don’t know much about the difference between the journey man shortstop and the young future every day short stop

        José Iglesias over his last 30 games:
        .243 AVG, .269 OBP, .301 SLG

        José Peraza over his last 30 games:
        .312 AVG, .337 OBP, .455 SLG

      • matthew hendley

        whoa there, just cause he has had a good 3 weeks, doesn’t mean I am ready to call him the next Barry Larkin.

  13. RedAlert

    Disco trying to take the championship
    gopherball belt from Mahle – maybe he already has it anyway – dude can’t stand prosperity

  14. matthew hendley

    Deitrich OBP is going higher. Might explain his continued playing time. I mean if they all are going to be hit on the Arm Guard, I would keep doing it too

    • Indy Red Man

      I think he might be the perfect Zobrist type….just match him up against hard throwing righties. He’s terrible against good offspeed stuff.

      • Indy Red Man

        lol…thats what all the NFL pads are for:)

  15. Indy Red Man

    Winker rolling over on a outside pitch. Somebody on here tried to tell me that wasnt the case. Wrong. He inside out a basehit last night to left. Thats the good Winker. This Winker is average offensively at best and thats unacceptable because his bat needs to carry him.

    • Tomn

      Right on. Not sure why he’s decided to try to pull almost everything. I seem to remember him driving the ball to LC a lot last year. Not this year. It’s grounders to 2b.

  16. Indy Red Man

    DD!!! Liking this cat!! If you ain’t cheating you ain’t trying!!! Lolllll. Did he do it on purpose? Replay is hard to tell

    • matthew hendley

      I’m squinting real hard, so I can’t tell lol

  17. matthew hendley

    also another reason. DD with a baseball IQ out

  18. Sliotar

    Deshaies on Cubs TV – “Dietrich is really good at getting hit…by pitches and baserunners. Strong part of his game.”

    LOL.

    • matthew hendley

      Its True and even more funny it works!!!

    • Indy Red Man

      Good stuff! DD had to do that….if he waits for Rizzo to clear then the kids beats it easily

    • RojoBenjy

      Dear Cubs’ announcers—it is the burden of the baserunner to avoid contact. The fielder is entitled to a path to the ball.

      Perhaps you and Wehner should have dinner sometime and then go yell at clouds together.

  19. Seat101

    In case you missed my reply earlier in the thread

    These are the facts boys and girls

    José Iglesias over his last 30 games:
    .243 AVG, .269 OBP, .301 SLG

    José Peraza over his last 30 games:
    .312 AVG, .337 OBP, .455 SLG

    • RojoBenjy

      What’s the WAR and WRC+ though?

      • Seat101

        As I say I am packing for a camping trip I did not know I was going to have to go on. Look it up yourself.

        You stick with the journey man if you want to

      • RojoBenjy

        It’s all good, have a nice trip.

    • Indy Red Man

      The first 60 games do count. Peraza’s #s were good last year, but he helped bury them with a horrible first half. 3-15 start and all pressure was off. Iggy isn’t perfect, but he’d save them 3 runs a week over Peraza. JP couldn’t even catch liners last year.
      Someone smarter then me can tell you their defensive ratings, but Iggy is special defensively! If Peraza is going to hit though….then I have no problem with swapping roles. Whatever helps them win.

  20. RojoBenjy

    Not sure what plausible argument Maddon could possibly have with the interference call.

  21. Tomn

    This strikes me as a game we should win, that we are going to fritter away. A nobody SP is now shutting us down. Meanwhile Disco is showing signs of losing his touch. 3-2 on almost every hitter. Missing with high FBs. Just a matter of time. I’d have someone up for the 6th. No idea who though.

  22. Indy Red Man

    I need 2 runs!!! What is it with the Reds scoring in the 1st and then going on cruise control? This guy is a journeyman scrub.

    • Roger Garrett

      That’s the difference record wise with this club.They don’t walk much and they score by the long ball.They are feast and famine and like someone said the other night this is why they don’t put winning streaks together.Hitters start swinging often and early and when it works the pitcher adjusts and the Reds don’t.

      • Indy Red Man

        Station to station. Look at DD. Never steals and I don’t see him taking extra bases. I happened to catch WGN last week and they said Bryant leads the NL in 1st/3rd on singles….and how much he practices cutting his angle instead of rounding the bag. All without a single steal!

        I remember Johnny Bench was 10-10 in steals one year. Its baseball smarts and being ready when opportunity comes.

  23. Sliotar

    @Tomn,

    I was thinking…. David Hernandez time approaching soon?

    Iglesias pitched the last 2 days, Lorenzen got a good stretch in last night.

    2 more runs would make Indy a winner … and let all of us breathe easier.

    • Tomn

      Get Stephenson ready. He’s been underutilized for the last month. He should be good for at least 2 innings. He should be warming up NOW.

  24. Indy Red Man

    Hiura from Milw going off!! He’s 22. Meanwhile Travis Shaw is in the minors.

    What would Dusty/Priggleman/Bell do? “We gotta get Shaw going. I know he’s hitting .180, but he’ll turn it around” Josh Van Meter should pull a LaStella when he was with the Cubs. Play me or I quit. He could sell cars and make more then AAA

  25. Seat101

    @Ashley

    Good prequel by the way.

    I got an early day tomorrow. So once again it’s up to you to hold the lead.

    • Indy Red Man

      Have fun. See you soon!!

      I cannot believe the Reds still have 3 runs? I think I’m going down? The wind is nil tonite….3 mph blowing out. Still have to see what Senzel was doing on Peraza’s double? I wonder if he forgot the outs again…like the 2 out Votto single a while back?
      That run is looming large!

  26. Sliotar

    I am dead serious about this …. no trolling.

    The Reds should seriously consider trading Disco to the Padres this winter.

    Disco gives up too many HRs to be in the NL Central.

    San Diego has a good (the best?) farm system, and a home pitcher’s park. Far more forgiving than GABP.

    • Indy Red Man

      Any of those teams….or Oakland. ERvin>Winker….thats why

  27. RedAlert

    GOPHERBALL KING !!!!! AWFUL PITCH !!!!
    This guy gets burned by the long ball more than Almost anybody I’ve everr seen (with the exception of Mahle- lol ) – terrible

  28. TomN

    Red’s offense letting the team down tonight. Everyone trying to homer? Disco, good but can’t give up HRs like this. Cubs a good team. Our offense has to come alive.

    • Indy Red Man

      I have to question Bell on that sequence too. 1st/2nd nobody out….why not have Peraza bunt them up for a pinch-hitter with 2nd/3rd 1 out. Infield has to come in and that raises the hitter batt avg a ton!

      Versus letting Disco face the lineup for a 3rd time. Top of this thread will tell you he struggles in the 3rd round. Doesn’t Bell know that? He’s failing the Reds right now!
      Cost them both games in Colorado

      • Rich H

        Stop saying David Bell cost them every loss, because you never say he got them every win. It’s annoying and dumb.

      • matthew hendley

        it would also help not to refer to tie games as losses

      • Indy Red Man

        Thats not true. I’ve been pretty high on Bell til this last few weeks and this ride or die thing with Hernandez. Thanks though. He’s 7-3 vs the Cubs! nothing wrong with that, but everyone and their cousin could see Mahle didn’t have it and he left him for a 5 spot on Sunday…9 runs total. Inexecusable

      • Indy Red Man

        Also many were blaming him for their lack of offense on here, but I stood up for Bell. He was changing the lineup every other game. He was trying.

      • Rich H

        My apologies Indy, I just see the same thing said every time the Reds lose and it’s incredibly silly to me.

  29. Roger Garrett

    Reds have teased us all year but none of us thought after the 3 spot in the first we would win.Now after 5 more innings we see again why we struggle to win really really important games.Just can’t score and every pitch we make and every defensive play is high leverage all the time.Last night they came back and put the game away which is what you do against guys like the Cubs have in their pen.Today against Mills we make him look like Cy Young and you can almost guaranteed it before the first pitch was thrown.I hope we do come back but nobody would be surprised if we don’t because its what they have shown all year long.

    • matthew hendley

      6IP 3ER basic quality start? No, no one looks like Cy young with that. Quit your overreacting.

      • Roger Garrett

        5 innings and 1 hit after the first inning?Do you get it?Let me say it again 3 runs on 4 hits in the first and 1 hit by Disco over the next 5 innings.

      • matthew hendley

        not saying he pitched a bad game. Infact I would say he pitched a quality….Start.

        But the reds did get to him, he is gone now. SOmetimes you have a good game.

        Not CY young though. If he threw 8IP with 1ER then we can talk.

        And its every single time. Im tired of hearing it. I was able to make a change on talking about peraza, when he improved. I am just tired of hearing Dumb stuff come out on here.

      • matthew hendley

        Plus 3 HBP, and 2 BB. Try all the stats next time

  30. matthew hendley

    look at that, peralta lookin like….cy young

  31. Curt

    3 k’s and a home run for Suarez, starting to feel like the new M.O.

    • Indy Red Man

      Good point. I was going to say that. Every swing is a big looping hack. When he came up he hit .280 because he hit it to RF quite a bit. The HRs are great, but he’s capable of being a better overall hitter.

      Man….Suarez got some pitches down the middle and so did Puig

    • Bruuuuuccceee

      1.250 OPS with those results.

  32. Indy Red Man

    Peraza is a good bunter…could’ve had 2nd/3rd with 1 out and a .360 hitter at the plate with the infield in. Maybe Maddon walks him, but that puts some heat on their pitcher w/the bases loaded & 1 out. Not 2nd guessing either….Maddon was looking for the bunt.

  33. rex

    At least I can drink beer past the 7th at home

  34. Roger Garrett

    Matthew I will be glad to make a change as you said you did when Peraza improved when the Reds start scoring runs.How about we just call it and move on.We both want the Reds to win.

  35. Sliotar

    Really nice job Stephenson.

    Down 3-0 on Rizzo and made a “had to swing at” 3-2 pitch, down in zone.

    Good game.

    • Indy Red Man

      Very good stuff. Obviously hitters don’t pick him up that well. Its all about throwing enough strikes with him. See if they scratch out something now?

  36. RedAlert

    Sit down Rizzo ! Reds win coming !

  37. Don

    Winker should never, ever be the lead off hitter again. He swings at the 1st pitch every time up. Not close to how he approached hitting before he was hurt in 2018.

    Senzel needs to be in the leadoff spot 100% of the time against all pitchers. He is the best player on the team and should get the most ABs of anyone.

    The not scoring runs is the analytics approach to hitting. Hit or home run or strike out with the right swing to get a “launch angle” if one happens to touch the ball once every so often.

    Bell would never tell Pereza to bunt there as it is not the right statistical/analytic approach to the game.
    Ignore 100 years of how to score runs cause some math genius can show that there is a 0.001% better chance to score with 1st and 2nd with no outs than 2nd and 3rd with one out.

    Great job by Bob Steve vs Rizzo.
    Hope reds can get a single run and win

    • Bruuuuuccceee

      Recency bias? The last 4 games for Winker (didn’t feel like going further back, but you get the idea). Did he swing at the first pitch in his plate appearance?

      Winker Fri vs. COL – No, yes, no, yes
      Winker Sun vs COL – Yes, no, no, no
      Winker Sun vs CLE – No, yes, no, no
      Winker Sat vs CLE – No, no, no, no

  38. Mutton Lettuce Tomato

    Bob Steve just dodged a Rizzo… Let’s go get a run and finish this thing up.

    • RojoBenjy

      Sorry—game day was messing me up. No walk.

  39. Indy Red Man

    Lorenzen never steals. Time to break that tendency!

    • Indy Red Man

      He can do that all day. Why do they put a horse out on the track and won’t let him run?

  40. RojoBenjy

    Wouldn’t it be grand to see Joey put this game on ice right now?

  41. matthew hendley

    A votto chip hit is what is needed now.

    The loss would not be on DB tonight. THis game is a hard fought one.

    • Indy Red Man

      No…nothing glaring, but 2nd/3rd 1 out & Ervin at the plate would’ve looked good! Maybe Maddon walks him anyway? Goodnight all. Have to catch this one tomorrow

      • RedAlert

        Votto about threw that away – geeze !

    • RojoBenjy

      And here they go. First batter singles,

      Well they got Heyward out.

  42. matthew hendley

    So you pull the guy that got on base 3 times? that’s due up this inning?

  43. d

    should be walking #8 hitter to get Kimbrle out of game. Run means nothing

    • Aaron B.

      Kimbrel had something like 30 pitches already, and was afraid to challenge hitters, there was no reason to force him from the game at that juncture. Hitter had a .220 average.

  44. Don

    took Kimbrle out anyway. Reds and 3,4,5 and need 1 run

  45. Don

    ervin still hitting, to bad it is with 2 outs.

    • RojoBenjy

      You got it. Guess who with a hit when it matters.

      Gotta wonder what the game would have been like if he had started in LF.

      • Aaron B.

        He needs to play more at least until he cools off. He is swinging the hottest stick on the team.

  46. Don

    Senzel just needs a single now with 2 outs to go ahead

  47. RojoBenjy

    A closer with 8 losses on July 16.

    • Pete

      Not good. Not scoring a single run over 9 innings is a bit discouraging.

  48. Tomn

    Bummer. Game we should have won. Another one. Thought he should have just kept Stephenson in for another inning at least and spared Iglesias until it was a save situation. Now he’s probably not available tomorrow.

  49. matthew hendley

    Cant even be mad. Schebler went after a pitchers pitch. Just happens GOtta get the Rubber match tommrow. Ervin should start. Really thinking that winker is playing himself to the bench.

    • RojoBenjy

      Perhaps Winker’s little swinging injury is more serious than originally thought? An astute GM would place him on IL and recall VanMeter.

      Do the Reds have one of those astute GMs?

      • matthew hendley

        Are the PBO and GM even on the same page?

        That’s your answer

  50. RedAlert

    Reds got exactly what they deserved – make sure to keep sitting Ervin while you’re at it Bell. Not gaonna blame Bell for this one though – offense stunk it up after first inning . Been the problem with this team all year long. JUST TOO INCONSISTENT and can’t ever really depend on any prolonged winning streaks . Pitching most games plenty enough to win – offense is like a box of chocolates

  51. TyGuy88

    People will blame Iglesias, but not scoring any runs after the 1st inning is going to make it tough to win games. Offense falls asleep again.

    • Tomn

      Yep. Last night poor Cub D cost the Cubs the game. Tonight the two plays in the 1st inning probably won them the game. The play on Votto’s long drive to the wall and the throw and relay to nail Senzel. If either or both of those fall, it’s at least a 4 run lead and maybe 5.

      Then the bats go cold. Ugh.

    • Bruuuuuccceee

      True. That “home-run” was a Wrigley Field Special.

  52. C Holbert

    RI was pushing 65 pitches, three days in a row. DB goes from extreme to the other..

  53. matthew hendley

    SOFTBALL rules. Ditch a SS all together. Put Ervin winker senzel and Puig in a 4 man outfield

      • matthew hendley

        not if you yell softball rules prior to doing it.

  54. Tomn

    Nice to see Gennett get a solid hit. Maybe he’ll come around after all. We could hit a 300 hitter in the lineup (in addition to Ervin that is).

  55. matthew hendley

    DD on base 3 times. Switched out. Scooter has a solid hit. Not switched in. Ervin still hitting. Winker….. not so much. Understand Casalli is hurt.

    Jose P did have the hit. But he also had the DP attempting to force the issue, and not taking initiative to at least attempt a BFH. Neutral outcome. But I think he will be sat tomorrow due to PLaying full game.