Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (41-47)
2 6 2
Cincinnati Reds (41-46)
3 8 0
W: Diaz (2-2) L: Hernandez (2-5) SV: Davis (13)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Things looked good for the Cincinnati Reds most of the night. They were not trailing for 7 1/2 innings of the game. But then things went south when the Colorado Rockies hit two home runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to take a lead that they didn’t give back.

The Offense

Despite being played in Colorado, the offense was slow to get going for both teams. After Curt Casali singled in the 6th inning, Jesse Winker uncorked a triple into the left field corner that bounced around and by David Dahl and it scored Casali from first. That gave the Reds a 1-0 lead. Colorado tied things up in the bottom of the inning, but Eugenio Suarez got Cincinnati the lead right back. He led off the top of the 7th with a solo home run – his 21st of the season. But that was the last time they would push a run across the plate. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough.

The Pitching

After missing out on participating in the All-Star game, Sonny Gray got the nod to open up the second half for Cincinnati. What a start he had, too. Gray allowed just one run over 7.0 innings. He walked three batters and struck out nine as he lowered his ERA to 3.42 on the year.

David Hernandez came out for the 8th inning and things didn’t go well. After a strikeout to lead off the inning David Dahl hit a solo home run to right-center field to tie the game up. Nolan Arenado flew out to Nick Senzel in center for the second out of the inning. But then Daniel Murphy untied the game by cracking the second solo homer of the inning for the Rockies. Ian Desmond followed up with a double to end the night for David Hernandez. Michael Lorenzen came on to finish out the inning and he did so on three pitches, striking out Ryan McMahon.

Notes Worth Noting

Jose Iglesias and Curt Casli both had two hits in the game.

David Hernandez, after the game, saw his ERA jump up to 6.28. He’s allowed runs in five of his last six appearances. In that span he’s given up 11 earned runs in just 4.0 innings with 13 hits allowed.

Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

Saturday July 13th, 8:10pm

Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.51 ERA) vs Kyle Freeland (2-6, 7.13 ERA)

65 Responses

  1. matt hendley

    david hernandez has lost it. Simple as that

    • RefAlert

      Don’t care how supposedly smart Bell is – lack of in-game management is disturbing. I realize that players have to execute , but SO DOES THE MANAGER . Eighth inning Coors Field ,one run lead with fully rested bullpen – and he goes to Hernandez first – REALLY !!!??? Common sense says NO

  2. Ted

    Considering how bad he’s been lately it’s kind of hard to believe David Bell brought him in in that situation in the bottom of the eighth inning when you have a completely rested Bullpen… makes absolutely no sense

  3. Wayne nabors

    Bell said in his post game remarks ,that Hernandez is gonna get many more opportunities,so I don’t see anything changing for the better anytime soon

    • Aaron B.

      His ERA is 6.28 but sure keep callling his number, Skip. LOL… Bell is learning on the job to the detriment of the team.

    • RedAlert

      Sell Bell at the trade deadline then…stupid thing or him to say after the way Hernandez has pitched recently . Wreaks of the
      stubbornness of Dusty and Price !!

    • Hotto4Votto

      Something about the definition of insanity…

  4. Stoney

    I was on the fence regarding Bell but that decision to bring in Hernandez with a fully rested bullpen tells me everything I need to know. Bells main concern at this point should be trying to win ballgames. There is no justification to bring in Hernandez in that situation. This loss is on Bell.

    • Slicc50

      Yes……I knew this game was lost as soon as I saw Hernandez coming into this game. Personally, I would have brought in Lorenzen with Iggy warming up in the pen in the 8th inning. This was a very important game, and right there to be taken!

      • Colorado Red

        That is exactly what I was think
        What is bell doing?
        This may make the buy/sell decision much easier.

      • Scott C

        I felt the same. Hernandez started the year off being hit very hard, straightened things up for a couple of months and now is back to being hit hard, at this point he needs to be relegated to mop up duty.

  5. Scott Gennett

    The problem is bullpen has been reduced to a few reliable arms in Lorenzen, Iglesias and Garrett. All others aren’t just fit for high leverage situations, so better off make some roster moves/trades.

    • greenmtred

      And Garrett wasn’t available, so rested or not, the pen didn’t have its most (only?) reliable pitcher.

  6. jessecuster44

    Maddening. Put a GOOD pitcher in a situation like that.

  7. Old-school

    David Hernandez has appeared in 41 games. Per Cots contracts, he just received a $50000 bonus for appearing in 40 games. He gets $100000 when he hits 45 games, another $100000 at 50, another $100000 at 55 games and another $100000 at 60.

    Bell knows that.

  8. Reddawg12

    I understand that Hernandez basically blew the game, but I think the bigger issue continues to be the offense. So disappointing. You cannot score 2 runs at Coors Field against the Rockies and that offense and expect to win the game. They are going to get their runs eventually (the top 4 hitters in their order are all stars!) The lack of scoring has held the Reds back all season and it continued last night. A masterful start by Sonny Gray was wasted, and I put it more on the failing lineup than Hernandez or Bell’s decision to bring him in.

    • Don A

      Yes, but the fact remains that they were leading in the 8th inning and relievers are supposed to get the job done! You are supposed to win games when you have a lead late in games. I cringed when I saw Hernandez coming in to pitch. He has not shown the ability to get the job done. A rested bullpen, and this is your choice! Sorry, David Bell did not manage to win this game!

    • Pete

      2 runs in Coors to start the second half is not a good sign. There is a very good chance using 4, 5 and 6 relievers in many, many games early on sapped the relievers. We’ll see as the season unwinds but just like the team doesn’t hit as a collective unit, it now appears the bullpen has lost it en masse.

  9. redsfan06

    I have not been critical of Bell’s management up to this point. But how does he justify bringing Hernandez in to pitch the 8th inning nursing a 1 run lead when the complete bullpen is fully rested after the All Star break? Wouldn’t an analytic adherent Bell choose one of his best relievers to pitch in this critical situation?

    Sure, the offense can be blamed for only coming up with two runs. But you manage to the situation. Whatever the score was, the team had a one run lead late in the game.

    All I needed to hear Bell say was , “We are trying to get him going.”

  10. Klugo

    Yes, Hernandez threw a couple of taters up there, but he’s really just missing with his 4seam fastball. The same one that he got the strikeout with, he left down for the HRs. You could see where Casali was setting his glove up in the zone. I don’t think Hernandez is that far off. This is the type of stretch that many times lead to a move to the IL for a minor (or “undisclosed”)injury to save face (and money) while making some adjustments. The fact that he was at Coors field and that he is a mentally tough dude makes me think, he’ll stick it out and turn the corner sooner than later. I like this guy. I believe in him and I think David Bell does too.
    Now, it’s hard to expect to win at Coors Field scoring only two runs. Shoulda,coulda,woulda.

    • Don A

      He has been struggling for a while now with location. This is why he should not be pitching in these situations. Let him work out these issues in games with larger leads or in mop up situations. Once he shows that consistency to hit those spots get him worked back in…

    • Indy Red Man

      Have to disagree. Most of the guys in AAA are not that far off. Its not like DH is a young guy with great potential. He’s declining because he’s old. If you’re recruiting for a track team then you don’t start in a nursing home.

      Its not even like the guy was elite when he was younger? For some reason it seemed like they had the Reds open w/Philly at home for several years in a row. I remember the Reds beating up David Hernandez to win a game in the opening series like 7-8 years ago.

      Bell is going the wrong direction fast. “He’s gotta get DH going” and “He’s gotta get Peraza going”. NO YOU DON’T!!! You fire or demote them and replace them with other people. Just like the real world!

      • Indy Red Man

        I guess it was 2016….sure seems like a long time ago. Either way DH is 34 years old.

        2013 = 4.48 era
        2014 = Injured evidently
        2015 = 4.28 era
        2016 = 3.84 era with a 1.50 whip

        Does that scream elite high leverage guy to any of you? A guy that you have to ride the waves with because he’s that talented!

        I also think the “Ole strike’m out/throw’em out” with 1 out and a man on 3rd deserves attention. For one…..Votto is absolutely pathetic when it comes to driving runs in! 25 mil/year and takes half swings on hard stuff inside just to foul it off. He looks ridiculous. I’m sorry, but I don’t care if a statue can draw walks. 25 mil means you put runs on the board. Period!!!!!!!!!! I’d rather have Puig or Soler with a .290 obp.

        Now the other half of the strike’m out/throw’em out with men on 1st/3rd. What on Gods green earth was Winker doing? How do you get picked off 3rd in that situation? Did Votto miss a squeeze? Completely idiotic. I’m taking some time off. Its not fun to me and football is close!! This team? Great series wins (5-2) over the Cubs/Milw & then just drop 3 in a row and look clueless in every aspect of the game from the manager to hitting/fielding/baserunning. What else is there? I’m sure their equipment manager did a swell job!

  11. Grand Salami

    The in game comments show surprise, concern and chagrin in equal parts when Bell tapped Hernandez in the 8th. Hernandez appears primarily as the lead man out of the pen. Based on what everyone else has said, his performance has not justified it but it hasn’t changed. Bell has a Dusty Baker-esque blind spot for DH and the fans reaction when he appears says it all.

    The hitting is a problem but the blown hold is the ball game.

  12. Armo21

    Did anyone notice that Bell said “We, need to get him going” …. David Bell is not making these decisions without alot of input from the pitching coach. Bell gets roasted for every decision that does not go the Reds way and he gets criticized often for making the correct decisions that actually do work out in the Reds favor. It sucks that Hernandez gave it up last night, but let’s look at what went into that decision.
    1. Wandy is your only lefty, coming off injury
    2. the bullpen has very few shutdown arms
    3. Coors is tough place to pitch, Hernandez knows this and has pitched there more than anyone else on this roster.
    4. While Hernandez has struggled recently, he was fresh coming off the AS Break.

    David Bell is not the problem, lack of hitting overall, poor base running and a 2 hole hitter that has 22 RBI’s, strikes out looking way above league average, strikes out too often in key situations and is getting on base way below his career norm. The players are the problem.

    I really like this team, but it has flaws. Derick Johnson is helping Bell make every decision regarding the pitching, he is not just sitting over there saying who is available to pitch.

    • Colorado Red

      Still much better options in situation.
      DH has been rocked.
      Terrible decision by bell.
      If Lorenzen gives up the bombs, its baseball.
      But after the break, do with the best pitcher.

    • Tony Cloninger

      David Bell has been a problem in close games due to some over managing of situations and stubbornly going with a pitcher who has been in a Hoover like slump. Coming into this game he has been bombed hard. Worse numbers of any reliever during any bad stretch this year. Including Iglesias and his struggles.
      You may not have great options but DH is no option either. Jared Hughes has better numbers vs LH this year as well. So what if the offense only scored 2 runs. You still had the lead. The situation dictated a better option than the struggling one.
      Nice excuse making though.

  13. Steven Ross

    Can’t find fault or add more than what’s already been said about Bell and Hernandez. Lost in the debacle of those two was Votto going 0 for 4 with 3 LOB. Paying the man $25 mil and he has 22 RBI. Come on.

    • Roger Garrett

      Throw in 1-12 for Suarez/Puig and DD and it really tells the story as it has all year long.Throw in 3 pitiful at bats against Davis,who will walk you if you let him,in the ninth then you really understand the problem.

    • Jim Walker

      RBIs are a function of the situations a batter is put in. Run Expectancy (RE24) measures how a batter did in those situations versus actual league average of how all batters have done in those same situations.

      RE24 is defined by the number of men on base, what bases they were and how many outs in the innings when a plate appearance happens. For purposes of comparison, RE24 is normalized to make the league average be 0.

      Votto’s RE24 last night was -1.63 (runs). Last Sunday versus Cleveland it was -1.32. For the season to date, at 4.40 he is still better than league average. So, he has had a couple of tough games at the plate.

      By way of personal comparison, in 2018 after the same number of games played his RE24 was 20.95. So, if a person buys into RE24, Votto has fallen off a bit of cliff this season versus last.

      ** these stats via Baseball Reference game logs for 2018 and 2019.

      • Indy Red Man

        Votto is on pace for 14-15 hrs. Thats with a juiced baseball & in a launching pad. Iggy at SS…because of poor drafting and team building, they’re prob forced to sign him. I like him, but thats another spot with no power. Our catchers have no power. Senzel might hit 15…atleast at this point in his career. Winker? Baseball is 6 months of HR derby now and our pitching can only hold them down for so long.

      • VaRedsFan

        Jim, that’s with all game situations being the same, which they aren’t. Performing in late game situations is where Votto fails time and time again. He has had very few game changing hits in the last 2 years. People will argue until they are blue in the face, about late inning close game at bats being the same as early game. I know the truth about pressure, because I have experience with it in baseball and golf.

      • Jim Walker

        @va reds fan. Makes sense to me that if there is leverage time for pitchers there must be the same for hitters.

        Votto is 11th (and last) in 2019 for Run Expectancy Wins among qualified NL qualified 1B.

        Here’s a link to the Fangraphs leaderboard sorted for REW. The REW figure itself is over the right half of the columns,d

  14. Pete

    Bell is in a bit of a bind, xFIP for July:
    Lorenzen: 1.54
    Bowman: 4.19
    Iglesias: 5.50
    Hughes: 5.66
    Stephenson: 5.71
    Hernandez: 6.47

    Did not include Garrett since he is on the IL and only pitched 1 inning in July.

    • Davy13

      Point well taken. Yet, Bell still chose the worst of the bunch by far.

  15. Jim Walker

    Let’s take a step back for a minute and consider what the decision to open the Rockies 8th with Hernandez says by inference.

    The Reds had a 1 run lead and were 6 outs away from the win. The Rocks were opening the inning with their #2 hitter.

    Isn’t this a situation where the manager has to lead with his best available arm?

    The bigger news has to be we didn’t see Iglesias in that situation.

    • TR

      Instead of DH in the 8th. inning, Manager Bell should have turned to the well rested R. Iglesias who apparently loves that save stat.

    • Bob Purkey

      Exactly! Haven’t we been hearing that we don’t care about 9th inning saves and we’ll use the best, regardless of inning for a key situation?

      Well, I guess facing the heart of the Rockies lineup wasn’t a key situation, ad facing the bottom of their order in the 9th would have been? HUH?

  16. Still a Red

    Everyone loved DH earlier this season, coming in in high leverage situations (striking out the side with bases loaded and no outs). Now he and Bell are the goats. Yes he’s been off lately, but Murphy’s HR was on a slider down and away…good hit. Re: a rested bullpen, DH was as rested as the rest of the bullpen, plus Lorenzen is the only possible other guy to have put in…and he’s not been his best of late either. That said DH has been used alot this year compared to last and it appears to be showing. Not sure why Hughes is not being used a bit more.

    Now, hitting. Joey Votto ends two innings striking out with runners in scoring position. I am an ardent Joey fan, but either he’s declining rapidly or he’s trying to do something that aint working.

    • Jim Walker

      Check my reply above to @Roger Garrett RE: run expectancy/ RE24.
      Votto’s production in relation to the rest of the league in similar situations is well off from last season but still hanging slightly better than league average.

      • Pete

        Jim maybe to do an apples-to- apples comparison can you look at 1B only?

      • Indy Red Man

        Better then league average? Maybe when you throw in pitchers at-bats, catchers, and middle infielders?

        Compare him to Josh Bell, Rizzo, or even Thames (.893 ops) then not so much. Absolutely has to be in the bottom 10 when compared to 1B of 30 teams. I like Joey. His personality is different. His approach is different. He’s been fun to watch, but he ain’t cutting it at the present time and its always “What have you done for me lately”!

      • Pete

        Indy, this was the point of my question. Joey’s wRC+ is ranked dead last out of 1B’s with at least 30 PA’s (100). Teams have to get production out of their corner fielders. FWIW: Winker, Puig and Suarez aren’t much better.

        The Reds should try to move JV for two reasons: to salvage whatever money they can from his contract and he will not be on the next Reds playoff team – at least a team that compete seriously for a WS. There are many who believe Joey is set as a Red for 4 years after this one due to a no trade clause. Maybe that’s so but I’d like to see the Reds try. That is $25M/yr for a player who is already ranked last in hitting with four more seasons to go.

        I love JV and believe he is the greatest all-around hitter in Reds history but facts are facts.

      • Jim Walker

        I’ll look into this and try to get maybe at least a select few. I do not subscribe to BBREFs premium service. I just pulled the Votto figures “by hand” off the game logs. So, it is time consuming process.

        Fangraphs shows seasonal RE24 in the Win Probability chart for each player. From the player’s home page just scroll down through until you get to it.
        BTW, FG is currently showing Votto at 7.01 RE24 for 2019 vs the 4.40 I quoted above based on a BBREF point and click query of games logs. Maybe a like with WAR a calculation difference. Or perhaps since the big negatives for Votto in his 2 most recent games work out to close to the difference between the BBREF and FG totals, maybe this FG table hasn’t been updated this week.

        Perhaps there is someone who knows and has access to a site where they can mine this data in a single query or 2?

      • Jim Walker

        Here are three for you from Fangraphs 2019 seasonal data. format is: plate appearances/RE24 since this is essentially a counting versus rate stat.

        Votto 303/7.01
        Goldschmidt 381/11.64
        Freeman 410/36.68
        Thames 245/15.17

      • Pete

        Jim, thanks for the good work. I really appreciate the diligence in how you go about your business, you’re objective in your analysis and a joy to read. By the way, referring to “30 PA’s” in my post above, should be “300 PA’s” – sorry for the error.

  17. doofus

    The bad defense and poor base running could have sunk this team last night, but it was the bullpen.

    This team will not sniff the playoffs again this season, nor will they deal the impending free agents like normal teams will do. Sell high on Puig and Roark is not in Bob “We will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati” Castellini vocabulary. He will work in the shadows to disallow their trades. The “entertainment” value of certain players, not baseball talent will prevail.

    • Pete

      The Cubs didn’t get serious until they brought in Theo Epstein. Are the Reds serious? Are they prepared to do what it takes to be so? Or, like the Bengals, is this a family affair where accountability is not stressed? As fans, these are the key questions – not individual players. Do we have structural problems preventing a first-class organization, a winning organization. When I moved to Charlotte after spending 22 years in Cincy, it took about 5 minutes to ditch the Bengals after the Panthers were established.

      • Bob Purkey

        IMHO, Theo Epstein is the most over-rated GM in the league. He had bushel baskets full of money in Boston and Chicago and has made MANY horrible FA decisions with both clubs.

        Give the Reds the money that Epstein has/had and it might be different. I would live to see Epstein with Pitts/Mia/Cin/Det/KC budgets and see what he does.

      • Pete

        This wasn’t the point: the Cubs had pretty much been garbage, year after year, decade after decade. Epstein comes to the team and they are perennial WS contenders. Cubs ownership appeared to get tired of being bottom feeders. I don’t like being a fan of lovable losers.

        Epstein, whether overrated or not, has WS rings from two different teams in two different leagues – that’s all I know.

  18. Doc

    It doesn’t matter whether the game is played at Coors Field or a little league park. The Reds had a one run lead in the eighth and you have to manage to protect it. I don’t believe that was done well last night.

    Regarding offense: no matter where a team plays, some games are 10-9 where nobody gets anybody out, and some games are 2-1 where neither offense can buy a hit. Last night was not a Coors Field loss; it was a Reds bullpen loss, and some poor management choices, as others have stated.

  19. Indy Red Man

    Both Dahl and Murphy hit lefties well, but look at the numbers overall:

    Dahl vs LHP 3 hrs/96 atbats (HR every 32 atbats)
    vs RHP 9 hrs/207 atbats (HR every 23 atbats)

    Dahl 2016-18 = .905 ops vs RHP & .710 ops vs LHP

    Murphy vs LHP 1 hr/58 ab’s (hr every 58 ab’s)
    vs RHP 6 hrs/165 ab’s (hr every 27.5 ab’s)

    Peralta has already been warming up? They were 5 outs from a win. Peralta is probably only slightly better then 50/50 to get Dahl out, but its probably a walk and not a moonshot HR! Jared Hughes has a career 2.73 era (DH 3.99). 4-5 options for Bell and DH was the worst one and thats not second guessing. We said it before it happened!

  20. Hotto4Votto

    Sonny was great. The offense was largely still on AS break. Hernandez has been pitching like hot garbage lately. Honestly wasn’t surprised he gave up the lead. The bullpen has been a real let down lately. Probably need to add some help there if the Reds hope to stick around playing competitive ball.

  21. Russ Proctor

    This is all so depressing. I was busy watching Peter Frampton at Riverbend last night, so it was one of the few games I didn’t watch this year. To learn that David Bell put David Hernandez in the game with a one-run lead in the 8th is just crazy. It means HE LEARNED NOTHING from the last few weeks of DH getting blown up. How come every Reds fan in the world knew that was a stupid move, yet David Bell doesn’t?

    • Wayne nabors

      Wondering the same thing,beginning to think he’s over his head

    • greenmtred

      Every Reds’ fan always knows more than any Reds’ manager. That’s why we’re fans.

      • Pete

        Exactly. Not making excuses but the bullpen is thin. IMO, Bell makes far more good decisions than not.

      • daytonnati

        For some reason, I am under the obviously mistaken belief that no one would want to win a game more than the guy getting paid to win games and that he would make every decision in his own self-interest. Granted, you can make a bad decision, but I don’t think you do it deliberately. Pete Carroll won the Super Bowl one year and had the best team in the league and then the next season called for a short pass at the goal line that was intercepted and cost them back-to-back titles. I think guys like Carroll and Bell have hunches. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. Anyone willing to trade Bell for Dusty or Price? Not me.

      • Old-school

        Bell has made some poor decisions this year. I like his forward thinking and analytics based approach, but at times he overmanages and applies hypotheticals instead of actual human beings.

        Pulling Tanner Roarck or Tyler Mahle dominating at 70 pitches for inferior pitchers- Wandy Peralta. Pinch hitting Jose Peraza for Jesse Winker. Playing 5 left fielder’s against Cleveland when Senzel got hurt. Just put Phil Ervin in CF and be done with it. Playing AAAA players and utility players based on handedness instead of top prospects or former first round picks who are better baseball.players. The offense is getting worse … Now below the Orioles and in 27th or 28th or 26th depending on your metric. Runs scored, obp, wRC+, team WAR.

        The reds need an everyday 6 or 7. They have an everyday 4 because of Bell. Suarez is the only reds player who is above average for his position. Some of that is roster construction and that needs to be addressed very soon.

  22. Roger Garrett

    Reds are thin right now in the pen although I think when Garrett and Reed return it gets better.Problem is what happened last night will continue to happen.When you can’t score and the Reds are 14th out of 15 teams then every thing else you do must be really really good.Relievers are just up and down because well they are relievers and you never know what may happen.Having said that if Hernandez was the best guy to face 2 3 4 then I don’t know what that says about everybody else.Long season and you win some you shouldn’t and lose some you shouldn’t but the Reds,outside of Gray and Casali/Iggy with 2 hits a piece were just pitiful in all aspects.Almost looked like nobody wanted to be playing and it showed.To me choosing Hernandez to pitch the 8th and the lack of readiness to play concerns me more then the loss.This for sure is not the first time nor the last and that is on everybody associated with the club.The players should not need to be told to be ready to play but if they aren’t then Bell must prepare them to play.It really boils down to the Reds lack leadership on and off the field to get them out of this losing culture.Not saying they won’t get there but when you lose for so long its just hard to get over that.I will say the Reds have cut some guys loose this year and that is a good thing but this roster will need a major over haul and soon.Hopefully they play enough younger guys after July 31 so we can see who we can count on in 2020.

  23. Wayne nabors

    daytonnati,dusty has won everywhere he has gone,just look what happened to reds and nationals after he departed,yessir I’ll take him