We made predictions for win totals at the start of the season. It would be interesting to know what impact, if any, the last week or so had on our expectations. So here’s the question

Question: How many games will the Reds win in 2019?

Nick Carrington: The Reds win 82-84 games. They’ve had two significant injuries, Scooter Gennett and Alex Wood, but the potential problems were mitigated by Derek Dietrich and Tyler Mahle. That shows some depth, but I anticipate a few more injuries along the way that will test them. I’m not convinced the pitching staff is quite this good nor the offense quite as bad as they’ve been overall. Still, I think they are a solid team who got off to a terrible start, one that probably doomed their playoff chances.

Still, a lot could go right, causing them to win a few more games. Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, and Joey Votto probably end the season with better numbers than they have now. Nick Senzel should continue to grow. The pitching is good, even if they regress a little. I can squint and see 88 wins; I’m just not planning on everything going right.

Ashley Davis: The Reds will finish with 85 wins. This would surpass my preseason prediction of 82 wins, but after watching the improved pitching from a year ago, it’s very possible the Reds can reach that mark. We’re almost three months into the season and I think this is what the Reds are–a .500 team. They’ll have another win streak like the one that was just snapped Saturday, but they will lose some series as well. As of Saturday, the Reds would have to go 49-37 the rest of the way to reach 85 wins. They haven’t played to that kind of record yet, but the schedule does get easier. Twenty-two of the last 35 games are against teams that currently have losing records. If the Reds at least can continue playing the way they have been playing, there’s a chance to finish strong in 2019.

Chad Dotson: Before the season, I predicted 81 wins and I see no reason to change that prediction at this point. The Reds have been on one big losing streak and now we see they can go on a nice winning streak too (against good teams, no less!). The rest of the season has looked like a decent but flawed team being competitive most nights. Almost precisely what you’d expect from a .500 team.

But if they want to surprise me the rest of the way, I won’t complain.

Matt Habel: Prior to the season I predicted 78 wins and I am sticking to that. FanGraphs still only projects 79 wins even after this past week. Factoring out the slow start and this unexpected win streak, this team has showed they are about average. I go back to the strength of the division as a real barrier to 80+ wins for the entire year.

Bill Lack: Before the season, I predicted a 90-win season. I still think that it’s possible, though not probable. At this time last year, the Reds were hot also (winning 6 in a row and 8 of their last 10), but were still 31-45 (.407). Doesn’t this team (currently 36-39) seem much more than 5 wins better than last year’s squad?

To finish at 90 wins, the Reds would have to go 54-33 (.620) the rest of the season and despite the current hot streak, I don’t see them going 21 over .500 the remainder of the season, they’ve simply been too streaky. So, I’m going to back pedal a bit and predict an 85- or 86-win season, which would require them to play about .575 ball the rest of the way.

But this is very much dependent on what they do at the trading deadline. If they unload Puig, Gennett, Dietrich, or some other offensive piece for which they don’t really have a replacement, this number will be worse. Finishing .500 might even be in jeopardy. But if they add a solid offensive piece, which is the current rumor, then the 90-win season is back in play, maybe more. Dare we say Wild Card or even possibly the Division championship?

35 Responses

  1. Mason Red

    I figure they will finish around .500 but I don’t think they have the talent to make a playoff push even though they are within striking distance. Puig is heating up but will be traded for prospects which was why he was brought here in the first place. I’m not sure the FO or ownership is comfortable with the team on the fringe of being in a playoff hunt which is why I believe they will be sellers and not buyers at the deadline. I do admire the grit of this team but there just isn’t enough talent or depth.

  2. Tom

    The Reds are much improved over last year, but this probably means a .500 season is most likely. I think anywhere from 79-83 wins. Agree, the pitching will regress and the hitting should improve. I am concerned however about Suarez. He tailed off late last year and has not improved this year. Pitchers have found a way to get him out and he has not made any adjustments. Where do the Reds need to improve their lineup or pitching staff? If Gennett and Wood can excel in their returns it would be a huge lift. Still need more out of the 3rd spot in lineup and catcher.

  3. Roger Garrett

    Much better team but not as good as the Cards,Cubs and Brewers.Haven’t beat the Pirates this year either.They could win any where from 72 to 80 games depending on what they do at the deadline.They have pieces they could and should trade to get younger but is more wins what the front office really wants or do they want to prepare for 2020?Just imagine for a minute starting 2020 with the same 25 man roster even if Wood and Scooter were on it.Even if the other teams never made the first move do you think we could beat them?If wins are important right now then they are competing only against themselves and have been for a few years.

  4. Steven Ross

    Better team this year, no doubt but unless they get five games OVER .500, I think it’s too much to overcome. I’m interested in seeing the moving parts once Wood and Scooter return. Going to be some tough decisions plus an intriguing trade deadline.

  5. Brian S Jolley

    I could see their record ending up in a wide range depending how so many things go. If Castillo continues to revert back to a #2 or #3 starter, Mahle and Gray continue to perform in a similar matter, Disco gets injured again, Wood can’t get/stay healthy, and they become sellers at the deadline then I could see a 70-75 win team. I Castillo recovers from the recent blip to a consistent ace, Wood gets/stays healthy and pitches to the back of his baseball card, Mahle takes a step forward, Roark continues to be solid and the bullpen holds up, Votto continues to make strides, Puig stays productive if not red hot as of late, Scooter comes back and hits like Scooter, Winker and Senzel get into a grove, Suarez plays like last year, Iglesias continues to hit well, etc., then I see them challenging for the Wild Card and maybe 88-90 wins. AT LEAST THERE IS HOPE TOWARDS THE END OF JUNE THIS YEAR!!!

  6. SteveLV

    The chance of them making the playoffs this year has got to be in the teens, which isn’t enough to bank on, but an improvement in that we’re having a conversation about the topic.
    I was a little concerned by Williams’ comment that the Reds were in buy mode. Unless that translates into good, controllable players, that statement or action seems like marketing. As a first priority, make the Reds better in the future.
    If they make trades at the deadline, I think they fade a little and end up with 75 wins.

    • Curt

      The Williams comment that concerned me was the one that went along the lines of…”The days of a starting eight are over”, everybody needs to play everywhere now or something like that. While there might be some truth in there sure, it sounds more to me like a big fat excuse for not being able to field a starting 8. If tossing Peraza out into centerfield when you have an outfielder on the bench is an example of that philosophy. I’m not sold.

  7. Scott C

    I still see the Reds at about .500 79 to 83 wins. Still a big improvement over last year. Again a lot of that depends on what they do prior and up to the trade deadline. There are still some holes. Castillo as good as he has been is still not an ace and won’t be until he gets his walks down. Mahle is probably going to run out of gas by the end of the year. Peraza is a defensive liability everywhere he plays except perhaps second, but Farmer is as good defensively and better offensively. Dietrich and Gennett when he get back are better often offensively. Twice in this past series Peraza has come up in big situations and swung at the first pitch and made a routine out. He has less base on balls than anyone playing regularly and less than Senzel and Barnhart even though they have less at bats. He even has less than Schebler who has been toiling away in Louisville since the end of April. If he had drawn a walk yesterday we would have had two of our best hitters coming to the plate in Winker and Votto. As long as Peraza continues to play we have a big hole in our lineup that will keep us below 500.

  8. ToBeDetermined

    Since you asked.
    I see the win total about the same as I did at the beginning of the year – About a .500 team.

    Now, 2 caveats:
    1) I don’t believe they are a middle of the road team overall in baseball. This is a tough division. As I looked over their schedule the rest of the year. They may get a series that they should definitely win but then followed by 2 or 3 tough series. It is going to difficult to rattle off a long win streak or to win consecutive series.

    2) The path they have taken to get to .500 is certainly not what I expected. The pitching overall has blown my mind of how good they have been. Likewise, the hitting has given me headaches (certainly not expected). Their defense has been actually better than I expected.

    • greenmtred

      Pretty much agree with your assessment across the board, TBD. The hitting does seem to be waking up, but for the Reds to be substantially better than .500, the pitching would have to continue its dominance.

      • ToBeDetermined

        green

        “but for the Reds to be substantially better than .500, the pitching would have to continue its dominance.”

        Agreed that will be tough to sustain the pitching dominance. Also, considering that it hasn’t been that hot and humid yet. Once the heat and humidity arrive in town, it may be very difficult to keep the ball in GABP for either the Reds or the oppositions pitching staffs. So that could be just kind of a wash.

  9. TR

    I think the Reds will win79-83 games ending up around .500. A lot better than the last four years. The good pitching is a real positive and the second half will be interesting with changes coming looking forward to 2020.

  10. doofus

    The only thing that I agree with in all this euphoria is that, Yes, there are many ‘IFs’ surrounding this team. Given, that I will predict 71 wins, which is slightly above my original predictions of 60+ wins.

    This team caught the Astros shorthanded, without Springer, Correa and Altuve (all but 1 game). And, split 4 games with the slumping Brewers.

    The starting pitching will need help before the end of the season. I do not see them maintaining decency the whole season.

    We are seeing the beginning of the end of Sir Joseph. He no longer is elite.

    Front office needs to respond with some adroit trades in next 5 weeks, or say goodbye to 70+ wins. I doubt it happens. Call me cynical, but I have seen Bob “Lucy with the football” Castellini and his front office stooges not get it done now for 14 seasons.

    • TR

      The Stooges have put together a pretty good pitching staff and it’s not The Stooges fault the Reds offense was not there after opening day losing seven in a row.

  11. matt hendley

    I think a wild card is not out of the question. I also think one way or another the Rebuild has stopped. There may be trades yes, but not for the sake of ‘tearing everything down’. If someone is on the roster AUG 1st, there is a good chance that the reds are at least discussing an extension with them.

    • Jefferson Green

      Agreed. Wild card requires a ton (almost everything) to go right, but the Reds have finally moved from the rebuilding stage to the ‘finish building’ stages.

      • Pete

        Except there’s a very good possibility in 2020 we may need a second baseman and shortstop, right fielder, catcher and a couple of starting pitchers. I don’t think the rebuild is anywhere near done. The more young talent we can add in the meantime would be preferable or at least a wise move. I love how the Reds are playing this year but realistically they have little shot of entering the playoff picture. Even if they do, they are unlikely to move past the first round or maybe with great luck, the second,

      • Curt

        When was the rebuild? I must have missed it. 🙂 Is there even an agreeable definition of rebuild?

  12. Indy Red Man

    They were hot and jumped up 3-0 on Saturday, then their “ace” melted down and they lost the streak. Then lost again. That’s 3 games blown with LC on the mound and with a 3, 4, and 5 run lead. Plus a 8-0 lead blown with Sonny. I think I had 84 wins coming in. I doubt that’s happening and even if it did its just fools gold. Problem is they’re too close to mail it in.

    2 steps forward and 3 back? Cleveland missed their shot at a WS ring, but you see them bring up countless young guys that are keeping them going. Mercado, Plesac, Luplow, etc. Atlanta just rolls out another youngster in Austin Riley and he’s killing it. Where are the Reds young guys? Senzel and that’s it?

  13. doofus

    Just curious, does anyone think that the Reds FO has an interest in Whit Merrifield? I have read a couple of rumors that they do?

    • VaRedsFan

      If that’s true, it would be a major acquisition. Not as big as getting Yelich or Realmuto, but still significant.

      • Grand Salami

        He would be forced to play corner OF and leave Puig/Winker/Senzel in a platoon situation. Ervin might as well go to KC for a chance to play.

        Whit
        Senzel
        Votto
        Suarez
        Winker
        Gennett
        Iglesias
        Catcher
        Pitcher

        Great lineup with Puig and Dietrich as pieces and Farmer. Would probably cost a top 3 prospect and a second top 12 + other pieces like and Ervin.

    • Indy Red Man

      Great player but he’ll be 31 in January. No way. If they were a 87 win team last year and close then maybe.

    • redfan4life

      For what it is worth. The K.C. GM said he will not trade Merrifield.

  14. Indy Red Man

    “But this is very much dependent on what they do at the trading deadline. If they unload Puig, Gennett, Dietrich, or some other offensive piece for which they don’t really have a replacement, this number will be worse”

    This is true, but wouldn’t DD have to replace Winker in LF after Scooter arrives? DD is a character and I’ve enjoyed watching him play, but if he hits some more HRs and gets hit 5x a week:) then he’ll have value in a trade! Otherwise its Scooter? How are they supposed to coexist? Can a .500ish team with a farm system that is devoid of major league ready talent afford to keep a guy like DD on the bench when he would be of more value to another team?

    • VaRedsFan

      I like DD, but the shine is starting to wear off, the more playing time that he gets.
      .175 w/ 1 HR in the last 19 games.
      He could get 3 starts a week. (1 for Votto, 1 for Scooter, and 1 in the OF)

    • doofus

      DD is the type of utility player the Reds have needed for years. 1. He is not a washed up Cardinal. 2. He is not 35 years old. 3. He is not a washed up Cardinal.

      He is not an everyday player. He sits if Scooter returns, but gets PA’s several times a week.

  15. Grand Salami

    This team can win 80 barring catastrophic injuries and returns of Scooter/Wood. To win nearly 90 this team needs to add a real bat to the lineup. Perhaps it’s Scooter or it could be someone else. Merrifield? Frazier?

  16. Don

    83 wins
    To get to 83 they need to go 14-10 through July 24 which would put them at a 50 – 50. Then they go 32-30 the last 62 games.

    If their record is not at least 50 wins by July 24 then sell and see what happens.
    Trade whatever you can get (used baseballs, cash to be paid later, low A players) for anyone not under contract for 2020: Puig, Scooter, Woods, Hughes, Roark, Duke and even David Hernandez & Jose Iglesias anyone not under contract/team control for 2020 and that the team does not want to extended or the player will not sign an extension now.

    A similiar roster in 2020 will be another maybe 500 team.

    Bring up VanMeter, Aquino, Blandino, Sims, Reed and anyone else. Start them all plus Farmer and Ervin at least 4 games a week for the last 60 games. See what they can do over the last 60 games and go into the off-season knowing whom has limited statistics for whom can be productive on 2020 roster and whom is to be in the minor leagues or another organization.

    • Curt

      Some form of this combined with a few variables is the only way to go yes, unless BobC is gonna suddenly up the game 50mil and even if he did I’d say it should go to 1 and 2 type ace starters who they are gonna have to buy at top premium since, hard truth, Cincy is not exactly a preferred destination. With 25mil a year going to JV then the rest of the field should be youngsters. If they pony up to pay guys like Puig and Scooter 10mil a year then they won’t have it for a bigger 1 or 2 FA starter who once again they will have to overpay if anything to come to GABP. Most importantly they need to come up with a plan that doesn’t involve more duct tape and stick to it. Maybe they could even go so far as to share with the fans what that plan is exactly, so we all know what we’re in for. Much easier to support a losing team if you at least understand the bigger picture. Unfortunately the Reds and so many others prefer keeping this information to themselves. Fair enough if your the Yankees, not so much for a team like Reds.

    • Roger Garrett

      I agree in a big time way but it won’t happen.Signals the fans we know we are going to lose but we will sort this team out and get younger and better prepared for the future which everybody on here wished they would have done 3 or 4 years ago.They don’t sort players they just hold on to all of them until they can get nothing in return and then just give them away or recycle them back through again while hoping they win a few more games in the process.The only really good thing is they extended Gray and I believe they have control of DD and maybe Farmer for next year but they are bench pieces.I don’t expect them to do anything and just go bargain hunting next year in hope they can piece together a few more wins in 2020.

  17. jreis

    this has been such a bizarre season so far. we have had a long loosing streak and win streak and sandwiched in between we have basically had alternating wins and losses.

    the offense is showing signs but not clicking on full cylinders yet. I expect the starting pitching to come back to earth a little bit the rest of the year. I expect the bullpen to continue to be lights out.

    I think we can win 85-86 games this year if Scooter remains healthy and wood can give us some productive starts

  18. Tom

    To be realistic the Reds are still 1 or 2 years away. If you look at their AA farm team, that is where the talent lies. I still think they will stay around .500 for the next two seasons. The FO seems to be thinking the same with the one-year get-out-of-last place acquisitions. The reality is that with the exception of Senzel and Mahle this is not a super young team. The one and done players, if not signed long-term, will be traded for AA to AAA talent that can be the wave for 2020 or 2021. Even the draft of a college pitcher who should make the majors quickly shows their plan. Lots of decisions to be made in July before the trade deadline. Who stays and who goes?

  19. Old-school

    The problem is the NL is good. Competitive baseball makes it hard to go 9-1. The reds played the 3rd and 4 th place teams in the NL east. Should be winnable series x you get deGrom, Thor,Corbin and Scherzer.

    They are 12-19 against the NL central. The only way to 85 wins abd a wildcard is to barnstorm the NL central over the next month- Cards/ Brewers/ Cubs. They’ve improved but not against the NL central.

    79-83.

  20. Lwblogger2

    Late to the party but I had them at 79 at the beginning of the season. Now? Well, I think they will sell some at the deadline (or they should). Good news is they have some easier series (no MLB team is easy) down the home stretch. I think they still land about 79 wins.