It is one down and two to go for a Reds sweep  after they crushed the Nats  9-3 in Friday night’s series opener at GABP.  Action goes live Saturday at 4:10PM.

Starting Pitchers

Former Nat and current Red Tanner Roark  squares off against EriK Fedde in a battle of righthanders today.

Nationals

Erik Fedde was drafted by the Nationals in first round (#18 overall) of the  2014 Draft. He made his MLB debut in 2017 making 3 late season starts.  In 2018 as injuries took a toll on the Nats rotation Feede was called up and inserted into the MLB rotation. However Fedde himself was subsequently beset by shoulder issues which limited him to 11 appearances in 2018, all starts. Fedde began the 2019 in the bullpen despite being seen by many as the Nats top pitching prospect. On May 21, he was elevated to the rotation. Today marks his just third start of the season among 7 previous appearances..

So far in 2019 Fedde has been essentially a sinker/ curve ball pitcher with these 2 pitches accounting for nearly 80% of his offerings (sinker 54%; curve  25%). He has spread the remainder of his pitches pretty much equally among a 4 seam fastball, cutter and change up.

Like many aspiring young starters, Fedde has had trouble with command and control. At times he walks too many hitters and leaves too many pitches in prime hitting zones. Conversely he does not strike out a lot of hitters. Watch for these trends this afternoon.

 

Reds

The Reds acquired Tanner Roark to eat innings while keeping the team in games.  Roark has done well at keeping the Reds in games but has averaged just over 5 innings a start to date for the Reds.  This is a drop of right at an inning per game over his 2018 performance.

While  the Reds almost certainly were expecting  better longevity from Roark, there is a reason for the divergence. Roark’s FIP balloons from under 3.00 for his first and second time through an opponents’ lineup to  5.55 during  his third time through the opposition batting order.  Similarly, his K rate falls from 28% his first time through the opposition order to about 17%. From under 10% his BB rate shoots up to nearly 15%. So, there is a reason David Bell gets Roark out of games when he does.

PITCHER FIP WHIP HR/9 BB% K%
Erik Fedde 4.07 1.11 0.44 9.8% 14.6%
Tanner Roark 3.00 1.42 0.32 9.8% 24.0%

Bear in mind Fedde’s numbers are based on a very small sample size and mostly as a reliever, as opposed to a typical starter a third of the way through the season. Keep an eye on Roark’s HR/9 as the weather warms and the ball starts flying out of GABP. His WHIP suggests there could be trouble ahead if it normalizes to near his career 0.91 HR/9 rate.

Bullpens

Nationals

The Nats used 3 pitchers to cover 5.1 innings of relief Friday. Javy Guerra worked 3.1 of those innings and almost certainly is unavailable today.  The other 2 Nats relievers used worked an inning each with both throwing around a dozen pitches. Given the short turnaround, they likely would see only very limited action on Saturday.

Reds

The Reds used 3 relievers to cover 4 innings of work Friday. Jared Hughes worked 2.0 inning (28 pitches) while Zach Duke required 23 pitches for a single inning. Both would seemingly be unavailable given the short turnaround. Matt Bowman needed just 10 pitches for his inning and could presumably do a similar stint today if needed.

Lineups

        NATIONALS           REDS
1. Adam Eaton (RF)
2. Trea Turner (SS)
3. Juan Soto (LF)
4. Anthony Rendon (3B)
5. Matt Adams (1B)
6. Brian Dozier (2B)
7. Gerardo Parra (CF)
8. Yan Gomes (C)
9. Erick Fedde (P)
1. Nick Senzel (CF)
2. Joey Votto (1B)
3. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
4. Derek Dietrich (2B)
5. Jesse Winker (LF)
6. Yasiel Puig (RF)
7. Jose Iglesias (SS)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Tanner Roark (P)

Looks like the emerging Reds regular 8 versus right handed pitching. Hope they put another 9 or more on the board today.

 

News and Notes

Wondering how things are going down on the Reds farm? Wonder no more. Doug Gray and Reds Minor Leagues have this wrap on Friday’s action.

In case you missed it on a busy Friday night, here is Curt Casali talking about his big 3 run HR versus the Nationals

Final Thoughts

Yesterday I lamented the Reds struggle to progress from the fringes of respectability to being a legitimate playoff contender. Today let’s look at an opportunity which could get them to relevancy without the miracle of a 10 game winning streak.

Beginning with Friday’s game the Reds had 32 games before the all  All Star break. These break down into 6 three game series, 2 four game series and 3 two game series with just fewer than half the contests within the NL Central.

Over this run if the Reds can manage the equivalent of winning all the three games series 2 games to 1 and splitting the two and four game series, their record for the 32 contests would be 19-13 (.593). The Reds would then find themselves at  +2 against .500 for the season at 45-43 (.511) going into the All Star break.

Yes, this climb would be a little bit of a steep one. But that’s what’s needed to put that 1-8 start clearly in the rear view mirror. Most importantly as the season progresses, this opportunity provides a lifeline to relevancy.  GO REDS! 


Stats and data courtesy of MLB.com and Fangraphs

73 Responses

  1. matt hendley

    Reds go for the series win today. New Nats Kids has a shiny ERA, hope the reds break it. Like the lineup.

  2. CFD3000

    Jim I get the thinking on playing well through the all star break, and how the match can put the Reds over .500 at that point. And I think in terms of expectations your plan is entirely realistic. But in terms of goals and potential and mindset I think it’s selling this current team short. They have four starting pitchers who are solid right now (all but Disco), and an offense that’s coming together nicely, piling up hits and scoring runs and yet still with room to grow, whether by improved individual results (Winker and Puig in particular) or by roster changes (adding Gennett and Ervin and Blandino). The goal should be to win every day. And I absolutely think it’s achievable to win 2 of 3 for the next month. How about 21-11 instead of 19-13? That’s just two more wins, but a big jump relative to .500. I’ll bet to a man the Reds players think that’s more than possible – they’re planning on it. It’s going to be fun to watch!

    • CFD3000

      *and how the MATH can put the Reds over .500

    • Jim Walker

      I agree with you that the mindset should be to try and win everyday. But we know that in the end only the best of the best win as many as 60% of their games in a season; and only the truly worst like Reds have been the past several years fail to win at least 40% of their games.

      So, with 32 games representing essentially 20% of the season, I think it is really pushing to get over 20 wins (21 wins would equal .656) in such a stretch. There are no true doormat teams in the 32 game run I described. In fact the Nats have lowest win % of the group. At the the other extreme the Reds will see a .600+ team ( Astros) and a couple of .550 plus teams (Cubs and Brewers) plus teams clustered as closely or more closely + or – to .500 as the Reds themselves are.

      For me a real key to a potential run here for the Reds are the 2 game series. It seems easier to sweep a 2 game series (or conversely get swept) than to win even 3 of 4, let alone get a sweep in a 4 gamer. Meanwhile somebody wins 2 of 3 in every three game series; and, that’s where the consistent focus has to be.

      BTW both of the 4 game series before the All Star break are with the Brewers. If the Reds could manage to win as many as 6 of those, it could reshape the NL Central race not just for the Reds but for everyone.

    • C Holbert

      Everyone keeps talking about Blandino. When Gennett comes back someone has to go, Perasa, or Farmer?..Who goes for Blandino, and do we really need another utility player. Whose spot does Ervin take?

      • matt hendley

        Peraza and farmer go for Blandino and Scooter, either DIsco or Mahle for Wood. All those people have options so it is not an issue.
        An Ervin call up would have to come at a more permanent result of someone not producing. whether that means a WInker demotion or a Puig trade Etc. It could also come from a DFA of Duke, or a reduction of Bullpen pitchers to the traditional normal numbers.
        WHere there is a will there is a way.

  3. John Ring

    Love this lineup. Puig needs to catch fire. If he and Votto get it going, watch out. Joey looks to be on his way.

  4. matt hendley

    Vottos strike three is Deitrichs Ball three. Funny how that works

  5. VaRedsFan

    3-0 hole to dig out of…get to work.

  6. Indy Red Man

    Just getting ready to say that Roark’s 1.42 whip makes a 3.20 era unsustainable? 2 hrs allowed is just flukey pretty much. I like the way he competes, but he’s got like 5th starter 4.40 era stuff. Still the 1st inning and the Nats aren’t rolling out any good pitching today.

  7. matt hendley

    Fedde might not have given up any runs yet, but he is going to pitch himself out the game early, 1.1 IP 41 pitches

  8. matt hendley

    Reds new Slugger Tanner Roark gets the RBI

    • matt hendley

      I will just point out that i posted this 35 mins ago. I see the future

  9. VaRedsFan

    Nice execution on the bunt by Roark

  10. VaRedsFan

    bases loaded 2 times in 2 innings

    • Indy Red Man

      Well we have their guy struggling to get thru 5 and their pen is the worst in the NL by a mile. I think the magic number is 5 for them because we should put up some runs. Its summer time in gabp.

  11. Indy Red Man

    Brandon Dixon hitting .316 and batting cleanup for the Tigers today. I thought he had some potential!

    • matt hendley

      i know its the Tigers but some people here had writen him off.

  12. matt hendley

    unbeleiveable. If the reds have to Squeeze every run in then they need too. Fedde is about to pitch himself out the game. This game is winnable. Stop with the DP

  13. VaRedsFan

    1st and 3rd…no outs. Come away empty.
    They’ve reverted back to can’t get a big hit mode.

  14. Indy Red Man

    1st/3rd nobody out & get nothing? Puig? The search for another big RH bat continues. Small ball still has its place, but not so much in gabp. We need big boppers

  15. VaRedsFan

    The Reds should seriously think about acquiring Matt Adams. At least he wouldn’t inflict any more pain against them.

    • matt hendley

      after trade deadline. REds have 150 players on 60 day IL to avoid playing against them.

  16. VaRedsFan

    Roark +/- now at 2. Gave up 4 but knocked in 2.

  17. Broseph

    No Thom. Roarke is not kidding you. Awesome for Roarke, but Thom might be the worst announcer for hyperbole and bringing color to the broadcast.

    • matt hendley

      No, he isn’t the worse, He isn’t even the worst on the reds usual compliment of PBP announcers.

  18. Indy Red Man

    Puig will be 29 in December. I was really excited to get him! Its twice as hard to hit the ball out of LA at night then gabp. He’s been a bust though so far. 13 walks and 54 Ks. I like the guy! He plays hard and he’s a good defender, but at this point it would be crazy to pay him? I’m sort of afraid he’ll have 8 hrs/20 rbis in Sept and finish with like 28/85 so they’ll pay him. So far this year if you don’t hang something or groove something then he isn’t hitting it? He hasn’t done anything with pitchers pitches all year?

    Roark!!! 2 run game!!!

    • VaRedsFan

      I agree with every thing you said. I really thought he would be great here. He will need to be the driving force in a Reds playoff run to get an extension.

  19. matt hendley

    Tanner Grand Slam Rainey, in the Nats BP right now. Reds push out Fedde after 4. Gentle tunes of ‘in the air tonight’ permeate the ballpark, announcing Maximus Dietrich’s arrival.

    • matt hendley

      if I have to cite it. its Phil Collins, but I am pretty sure many in this chat knew that already

      • daytonnati

        I expect nothing less for Sonny Crockett, er, Dietrich …

  20. Seat101

    Just got home from running errands. Here comes Jessie Wenker. Fingers are crossed

  21. VaRedsFan

    Winker not helping his case vs. lefties…another GIDP

  22. matt hendley

    Boos for WInker deserved. a week or so, it’s just a bad stretch, this is becoming a problem. Those asking why Peraza is starting over WInker against LHP should have their answer there. They should be asking why Ervin isn’t starting against LHP, but thats something else entirely.
    Scooter comes back, and Winker hasn’t improved, may need to move DD over to LF on a semi-permanent basis.
    Puig needs to get this run in, more if he can but definitely one run.

  23. TyGuy88

    How many crucial double plays has Winker hit into this season? Seems like something has changed with him or his swing this season.

    • matt hendley

      4 in 2 games minimum, probebly more but that what i remember off hand.

    • Hanawi

      He was an on base machine in the minors and last year in the bigs. Trying to hit home runs every at bat now. I think Ward’s influence had hurt this team overall

  24. Indy Red Man

    Puig zero chance. He’s the Cuban Adam Duvall

      • Indy Red Man

        Yeah…I’m sorry Adam. He put 30/100 with .795 ops or whatever. I’m just disappointed. I hope Puig gets it together, but he’s a K machine

  25. WVRedlegs

    Puig. Another golden sombrero. O-le.

  26. matt hendley

    REds still in this, need to destroy this bullpen up though.

  27. Roger Garrett

    One of those games so far.Obviously the double plays have been killers.Got to keep the pressure on.They will crack.

  28. Curt

    If platooning is the game plan for this team, maybe they should consider doing it in RF as well.

  29. Indy Red Man

    Winker’s struggles are troubling too. Both Jesse & Joey were rolling over on everything earlier. Wink hit a few HRs to left, but almost every out was a weak grounder to the right side. When he starts stinging the ball the other way then the dp’s will cease to be an issue. Right now though….couldn’t argue against Scooter/DD both playing. Puig and Winker haven’t done anything to beat them out.

    • Hanawi

      They have a bunch of guys mashing in AAA. Wouldn’t mind seeing Ervin get a few more at bats in the outfield too

  30. Roger Garrett

    It feels like we are actually ahead in this game and we will be before long.Hang on nation it ain’t over yet.If we hold em at 4 we will win it.

  31. matt hendley

    no excuse for that. Scouting department should have told the reds to Statue it when Rainey was on the mound. Would have walked the game tied.

    • Curt

      Yep, Van Senzel both should have walked.

  32. Indy Red Man

    Rainey? Hate to give up on young guys throwing 98-99. They gave up on him quick. I hope it doesn’t come back to haunt them. He’ll be in the league when everyone has long forgot about H&H.

    • matt hendley

      There is a reason they gave up on him. Control was Horrible. Still is. Considering what we have in Roark, the trade was a win for the reds.

      • matt hendley

        Lorenzen shows 99 with Control. Which is why he is still a red.

      • Indy Red Man

        Charlie Morton came up in 2008 w/Atlanta. 41 walks in 74 innings. Its pretty common with young guys. Whats not common is 98-99 mph. Not saying he’ll make it, but look at Castillo. The Marlins gave up way too quickly.

      • matt hendley

        True, but the Marlins have committed the FO version of giving up on life. There was an article that said that if MIA had not made any of the (in)famous trades, they would be enroute to a 125+ win season.

  33. Curt

    That’s the spirit Roger, I’m with ya

  34. Indy Red Man

    Lorenzen at 99. 2 groundballs and a K

    There is their 2nd/3rd/4th starter….too bad the Reds can’t see it? Better stuff then anyone but Castillo. He keeps the ball in the park and he can drive in runs too.

    • matt hendley

      Velo will not remain at 99 if he is converted to a starter. Also sports a Career 3.7 BB/9 rate. Not great for a starter. WHIP at 1.5, 9H/IP (which has jumped this season) also not spectacular. Needless to say, the claim that he would be the second best Starting pitcher is a claim not based in reality. Would he be better than disco, perhaps enough of a chance that it’s worth a look.

      • VaRedsFan

        Have to agree….rarely a clean inning (thus the big WHIP). Had allowed runs in 4 of last 5 until today. But he did look brilliant today, which he will occasionally do.

  35. Curt

    How many HIDP’s is that for Winker?

    • matt hendley

      Still 2, that was a FC to end the inning. Reds need to get it going now. running out of time. Sean Doolittle still brings something.

  36. Jim Walker

    Maybe not the Reds day. Looked like Double D had a hanging breaking pitch or 3/4 FB to go hacking at and just missed it for a foul away.

  37. VaRedsFan

    6 GIDB for Winker last year.
    Already 8 this year. Reds are 1-4 in games he has GIDP
    The Reds lost by 2 in all 4 of the losses.
    The Reds currently trail by 2.

  38. matt hendley

    A few players having a bad day all at once. A few having days (neutral but not spectacular) and then DD.
    Still within reach, but there is the feast and famine effect again. At least the reds have run this BP ragged.
    Hopefully, Scherzer is not his historical self tomorrow

  39. matt hendley

    red should start VMTR in place of winker in LF tomorrow, See what he does against an Ace. mght become a short term solution while we wait on Scooter

  40. VaRedsFan

    Nats bullpen is awful….just like Kingham (Pitt) on Tuesday, and Brault (Pitt) on Thursday

  41. Roger Garrett

    Yes they are but we just aren’t ready to take the next step.We are consistently inconsistent at the plate and it really doesn’t matter who is pitching against us we can make anybody look like Cy Young or anybody look like Loretta Young and these last two games are the greatest of examples.I think we will eventually get there but we have been handcuffed by scrub pitchers way to many times.I feel its the overall approach of our hitters and their inability to adjust at the plate within an at bat or on the next at bat.I see guys that are really aggressive that aren’t patient enough to wait out a pitcher or make him throw strikes.At times they give great at bats but most of the time they don’t.We went out in order last night in the last 3 innings against mop of guys and in today’s game against their pen we get humbled again.Nobody in their pen is any good except their closer.

  42. matt hendley

    Well, Tanner Roark tried to fix his mistakes. couldn’t fix winkers mistakes though. Or Puigs.

    Going with the trend of this series the reds will knock out MS in 1.1 innings. lol. Crazy.

    But the reds do still have the chance to win this series.

  43. Roger Garrett

    Roark was our best guy at the plate today which kind of tells the story.Last night was a ho hum win and today was a ho hum loss.Still got to believe we can and will do better.Go get em tomorrow.