Estragon: You can start from anything.
Vladimir: Yes, but you have to decide.

There’s the rub, Horatio. You have to decide. The Reds’ front office finally decided to bring their most heralded prospect to The Show. For those who thought it should have been sooner, who viewed Nick Senzel’s purgatory in the minors as the utmost example of theater of the absurd, who spat the words “service time” as if they were cottage cheese in their morning coffee, you could forgive had they nicknamed him “Gadot,” never to appear on that stage defined by chalk lines, third decks and endless banks of lights.

But all that is past as the prologue of Nicholas Peter Senzel’s major league career has finally begun.

It was a balmy 80 degrees, one hour before game time at beautiful Coca-Cola Park, a delightful anomaly, given that I had yet to flip my desk calendar over to May. But, here I was, a full 90 minutes west of New York City, in the Piano Man’s “Pennsylvania we never found,” to catch a glimpse of wonderkid Nick Senzel as he and his Louisville mates prepared to turn the Lehigh Valley IronPigs into bacon bits. Hog references abound. A wall of names on the third base side of the park displays names of minor league players that have made it to The Show in Philadelphia with the title “Pigs to the Bigs.”

There to catch my first glimpse of Senzel’s offensive prowess, I was surprised at how athletic he looked at second base, smooth and agile, making one remarkable play, in particular. At the plate he was quiet, and being April, the temperature had dropped 25 degrees by the 6th inning. Deciding to get a jump on the drive home, I left in the 8th. Then, this happened:

Never one to leave a ballpark early, I had violated my own time-honored tenet. Barely a year later, as Jesse Winker lifted a 9th inning ball into the centerfield seats of Citi Field to give the Reds the lead, I rose from my seat behind the Reds dugout—a cold, damp night in its own right, not unlike that evening near Allentown—and remembered the scolding young Senzel had given me as I drove through the New Jersey night, homeward.

.312 / .387 / .509

This is Nick Senzel’s minor league history in one Instagramic snapshot. The hours leading up to—and after—his arrival have led to countless comparisons to Jay Bruce’s debut. But there was a larger moment here if one were so inclined to see it. For Nick Senzel represents a foundational footprint of the rebuild, the first high pick to arrive vis-à-vis the draft since disastrous seasons began guaranteeing high draft picks. Yes, this team has been forged in part by shrewd acquisitions (Castillo, Suarez, DeSclafani) and mining beyond the first round of the draft (Winker (#49), Garrett (#685), Mahle (#225)). But the payoff for all the losing is hitting on those high first round draft picks. They are the difference-makers who strengthen and lengthen the core.

These picks become even more important when you consider that trading for prospects has perils of its own. As Zach Kram over at The Ringer noted, there’s some evidence that even with the most liberal eye, non-traded prospects fare better than traded ones:

Through their first six MLB seasons, the non-traded prospects accrued an average of 27 percent more WAR than their traded counterparts, with sizable advantages for both pitchers (who saw a 25 percent gap) and position players (31 percent). It’s a statistically significant difference, too, which suggests that the discrepancy stems from a real effect and not mere chance.

So, while trading aging players for prospects and staying young is crucial to Reds’ October sustainability, it is those home grown top prospects that likely will provide the cornerstones of teams that fans will remember long after their stat lines fade on the pages of Baseball Reference.

In 2015, Jeff Sullivan wrote at Fangraphs about the forgotten prospects, those that never appeared in the Baseball America Top 100, but nevertheless managed to show themselves good players. Sullivan defined a “good” player as one who amassed at least 3 WAR in a given season. Jeff looked at three seasons, 2012-2014. And what he discovered was that over that period of time, a full third of “good” players were so-called “poor prospects,” players that resided outside the top 100.

It’s comforting to remember that those players exist, that these first-round picks do not purpose the future’s entire burden. But as we ponder Joey Votto’s inevitable retreat from the ranks of the elite in the coming years, this is the likely place where the hammers will be found to close the rivets up and armor the everyday eight for seasons to come.

The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have set the bar for building a strong core to build around. The success of each organization through the draft has been instructive, not only for what each has achieved, but for how difficult it is hit on even the highest of picks.

1st Round Selections—Chicago Cubs

Draft Year Pick # Age WAR
Javier Báez 2011 9 26 14.4
Albert Almora, Jr. 2012 6 25 3.7
Kris Bryant 2013 2 27 22.9
Kyle Schwarber 2014 4 26 2.6
Ian Happ 2015 9 24 2.4

 

1st Round Selections—Houston Astros

Draft Year Pick # Age WAR
George Springer 2011 11 29 20.8
Carlos Correa 2012 1 24 19.6
Mark Appel 2013 1
Brady Aiken 2014 1
Alex Bregman 2015 2 25 14.7

In the five years the Cubs were awarded a high pick, they’ve hit on two players, Báez and Bryant. Despite the considerable hype, Schwarber has thus far produced but 2.6 WAR and Happ is back in the minors.

For their part, the Astros have hit on three players, Springer, Correa and Bregman, but failed ignominiously with two #1 picks in a row, selecting one pitcher who never signed—and another who is no longer with the organization.

The Reds are now on the clock:

1st Round Selections—Cincinnati Reds

Draft Year Pick # Age WAR
Tyler Stephenson 2015 11 22 ??
Nick Senzel 2016 2 23 ??
Hunter Greene 2017 2 19 ??
Jonathan India 2018 5 22 ??
         ?? 2019 7 ?? ??

In order of quickest to the big leagues, on deck is Tyler Stephenson (#11). As a competitive balance pick, Taylor Trammell, (#35) doesn’t appear here, but is a welcome wildcard. Then, Jonathan India (#5) figures to arrive. Hunter Greene (#2) is set back at least 14 months with the Tommy John Flu; and barring a collapse this season that awards the Reds another top ten draft pick, the Reds’ last bite at the rebuild apple comes this summer with the #7 pick.

After the June draft, they will have crossed the Rubicon. Cincinnati will either have drafted a sustainable core in this rebuild womb of time, delivering success for years to come, or fall back, having missed an opportunity born of years of losing, suffering scorn and all too familiar contempt in the process.

Chicago and Houston’s draft results suggest the Reds need at least two of these rebuild picks to become foundational players. The Astros provide a particular warning of the fickleness of targeting young pitching. As the story of Mark Appel illustrates, when it comes to finding and successfully nurturing tomorrow’s elite players, the minor leagues—from rookie ball to Triple-A—can be a desert place where only the hardiest bloom. According to  SI’s Ben Reiter, Appel was “as risk-free a pitcher pick as has ever been made.”

Nothing is a given for Nick Senzel, nor is it for the other first round picks that hope to make the Reds contenders for years to come. While watching Senzel’s journey through the minor leagues—cataloging his every swing, following him from base to base—may give assurance of his ultimate ascendency, the cold reality is that fate can always pilfer a dream. Senzel and family know. If you are unsure of the veracity of that thought, debate with your bosom awhile, and let young Senzel’s own words to his father when he got the call remind you:

“Dad, I finally made it.”

17 Responses

  1. David

    Nick Howard

    Nick Travieso

    Where are they now? Well, Nick Howard is still in AA ball, I think. Struggling.

    Being a first round draft pick and success is not a given, but the odds are good that top round draft picks will make it to the Bigs for more than a drink of water.

      • David

        Yes, I know. The point being that these were #1 draft choices by the Reds that have failed. Taking pitchers with #1 draft choices is almost always a disappointment.

      • Doug Gray

        Did you know? Because you said “I think he’s in AA and struggling”, which is entirely inaccurate.

  2. matthew hendley

    Nick has come up and impressed. How did the Astros counter the fact that Appel was a bust, and akien refused to sign?

    • Earmbrister

      One way the Astros countered two #1 overall busts was being lousy for a LONG time. People forget that they were a losing team for 7 of 8 years, including the last six in a row.

  3. Mason Red

    And also see the lack of success so far for the Angels in the Trout era despite being the best player in baseball. One great player does not a team make.

    • BigRedMike

      Great point. The Reds have 2 players above average at this point, Senzel and Suarez. Votto is hitting the age decline, Winker has potential. This is why the Reds continue to be in last place in the NL Central.
      A significant increase in talent is needed to become a legit contender for the division.

      Great article in regards to Senzel. He has potential to become a great player.

      • Scott C

        I think you are right in your assessment overall, but I think you are forgetting Castillo. Unless you are only talking positional players.

  4. SultanofSwaff

    I’m optimistic about all the 1st round talent up the middle, possibly by 2020.
    Stephenson C
    India at 2B
    Senzel SS/CF/2B
    Trammell CF

    Of course the realities of veteran privilege will mean that Iglesias plays SS, and Trammell will probably move around a bit. Point is, there will be attractive options at the most difficult positions to draft and develop.

  5. jreis

    Thank you Richard. after watching the cubs and dodgers closely this week my fear is that even if Senzel, Trammel, Siri,India develop to their full potential it still may not be enough to compete with the top tier “super teams” in the NL. hopefully they will create enough interest in the team that attendance improves enough for ownership to start opening up their wallets a little more though!

  6. ToBeDetermined

    jreis

    Agreed. Once the Reds get competitive the FO will need to open “up their wallets a little more though” to cross into that ground

  7. WVRedlegs

    Great article as usual by Mr. Fitch. Nice to see a side by side comparison with the Cubs and Astros since so many have used them as the barometer for rebuilds. Both teams did win a world series right after their 5 year plan. Tough for the Reds to match that. The Reds just haven’t had that big free agent signing and big trade that that both of those teams made. That can come this July and this winter. The Cubs signed Jon Lester in 2015, and Ben Zobist, John Lackey, Dexter Fowler, and Jason Heyward before the 2016 season. They also made trades at the 2016 deadline for Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery.
    The Astros followed a similar path, but not as big of one. Prior to 2017 they hit the free agent market for Charlie Morton and Josh Reddick. They made trades for closer Ken Giles and C Brian McCann. They then hit the proverbial grand slam with trading for Justin Verlander at the deadline.
    Notwithstanding the yet to be determined winter Dodgers trade for the Reds, the Reds have yet to go big like both of those teams did prior to their world series runs. The Sonny Gray trade/extension is a small start. It hardly compares to a John Lackey or Charlie Morton to date, but there is promise. The Reds-Dodgers trade looks like it will yield barely anything for post-2019 other than utilityman Kyle Farmer.
    The other place the Reds are coming up short is that the Reds are not drafting near MLB ready players with the exception of Senzel. TStephenson is still a couple of years away, as is India. Look at the list of first rounders again for both teams and see how long it took for each to make the Major Leagues. Not very long, and that hasn’t been the case for the Reds. The Reds need to hit one out of the park with their #7 selection for the 2019 draft, one that can rise quickly to Cincinnati.
    The Reds will also have to hit the market too like both teams did. The Reds have already folded their cards and walked away too early in trade discussions for Christian Yelich and JT Realmuto over the last two off-seasons. Making the error on Yelich was very costly. Went to a division rival and delivered Milwaukee an MVP season in his very first season and almost an NL pennant and world series birth. Boy, that guy sure has hit well in GABP since that trade, hasn’t he?
    And I didn’t even take into account Houston’s trade for Geritt Cole for a world series run in 2018 and 2019. The Reds are trying to make it out of the Rebuild Woods, but carrying the heavy load of the bloated corpses of Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood has taken an early toll. And add in the batter’s box casualties like Votto, Barnhart, Schebler, Peraza and Winker and it is hard to see the Reds with a Cubs-like or Astros-like rebuild. Not without some serious influx of talent and some major 25 man roster turnover this July and this winter. The Reds have a great opportunity for that with several contracts coming up after 2019. But will they be timid again like they were in the Yelich trade opportunity? We’ll see eventually.
    It shouldn’t have to be that way, but there sure is a lot riding on this Nick Senzel kid. C’mon Reds front office, give the kid some help to get this offense/defense going.
    The discussion on the near future (August 1 and beyond) centers around Senzel. But where does it go after that? It is hard to “trust the process” when there are too many unknowns.

    • ToBeDetermined

      WV
      ” It is hard to “trust the process” when there are too many unknowns.”
      Well clearly the process that the FO began with (how many years ago was that? that it wasn’t going to be a rebuild rather it was going to be a reboot) has taken a few twists and turns.
      At first they looked like they were going to go towards the KC model, in the type of players they were looking for. High OBP guys with lots of speed. That ended really quickly when the two players that they were looking at had two of the lowest OBP in the Majors ( Hamilton and Peraza)
      Then the trades (in general) did not work out. You got nothing for Chapman, the jury’s still out on what they got for Frazier and Cueto.
      The farm system and the major league bench were extremely weak when Brian Price took over and they were unable to weather any injuries of their Starting pitchers or regular position players.
      But, injuries did come.

      Well, this is getting long winded.
      I got to go , got a phone call

    • VaRedsFan

      @ WV…So you think going after Charlie Morton-type pitchers is the key?????????
      Before going to Houston he was 46-71 with about a 4.50 ERA

    • earmbrister

      The thing is, the Astros didn’t have a five year rebuild. They had an EIGHT year rebuild, having losing seasons in 7 of 8 years, including losing records in the last six years straight.

      The other notable difference is that the losing ended for both the Cubs and the Astros in 2014, with their last high draft choice occurring in 2015. Just about all of their high draft picks have hit their mid twenties, when they should be reaching the big leagues. The Reds high draft choices STARTED in 2015, and thus only one of them, a college player by the name of Senzel, has reached MLB. The Reds, like the Cubs and Astros, have drafted a mix of college and HS players with their #1 draft choices. They haven’t even made their draft choice yet that came from last year’s losing season.

      The Astros have certainly gotten their act together, though it came after that eight year stretch of futility, and then two more years of mediocrity, with 86 wins in 2015 and 84 wins in 2016.

      I like the direction that the Reds are going, and if the Reds had even half their lineup hitting to start the year, they’d have a winning record. The pitching, both starting and the BP, has been vastly improved from recent teams. The glass is way more than half full, and when the players from these recent drafts start joining the Reds, they are going to have a very competitive team. The biggest difference between the Reds and the Cubs/Astros is that those teams started their rebuild long before the Reds.

  8. Dave Roemerman

    This is self-selection bias. The “can’t miss” guys seldom get traded, especially these days. The ones who do end up being moved are often struggling and “need a change of scenery” (or are just not that good and won’t ever be great).

    And great teams are roughly 1/3 each draft picks, trades, and signings. Eno Sarris, I think it was, did something about it a year or so ago in looking at the Cubs and Astros and the myth of tanking your way to success. In the NBA, you can get 40% of your production (and 25%+ of your usage, if you’re into NBA advanced stats) from one pick. Two make for a solid team. Baseball? Not so much…

    Lester, Lackey, Zobrist, Verlander, Cole (not on the title team, but still)…