This week, the View of the Reds Farm from the Old Recliner reviews the season results of the Cincinnati Reds minor league affiliates along with the personal perspective from the Old Recliner of a top performer from each affiliate for the past three weeks.

Triple-A Louisville Bats (International League – West Division)

The Triple-A Louisville Bats maintain a 16-21 record and reside in 3rd place in the 4-team International League West Division.

Injured List (IL)

Hernan Iribarren (04/03/19).
Aristides Aquino (04/23/19).

The Perspective on Nick Longhi from the Old Recliner

Over the past 3 weeks, 23-year-old Nick Longhi slashed .353/.421/.471/.892 in 58 plate appearances. Longhi ranks 38th among qualifying hitters in the Triple-A International League. The Cincinnati Reds obtained Longhi from the Boston Red Sox in July 2017 in an obscure, minor trade. Within two weeks, the Pensacola Blue Wahoos assigned Longhi to the Disabled List, where he remained for the next year. During the second half of the 2018 season, Longhi slashed .244/.299/.320/.619 in 291 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. Nick Longhi produced a career minor league slash of .275/.334/.394/.728. A three week .892 OPS doesn’t represent too much to get excited about yet, but Longhi is 4 years younger than the average Triple-A position player.

Pitchers

Pitchers in the Triple-A International League average a 4.86 ERA; 1.449 WHIP; 9.2 SO9; 2.39 SO/W and 1.2 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Triple-A Louisville Bats pitchers average a 4.60 ERA; 1.448 WHIP; 9.2 SO9; 2.08 SO/W and 1.1 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Bats pitching ranks 8th among 14 International League teams with a 4.68 ERA.

The Louisville Bats top pitchers

Odrisamer Despaigne (SP) – 3.92 ERA; 1.355 WHIP; 8.7 SO9; 2.50 SO/W and 1.1 HR9 in 41.1 innings pitched.
Lucas Sims (SP) – 4.23 ERA; 1.383 WHIP; 13.6 SO9; 3.63 SO/W and 1.4 HR9 in 38.1 innings pitched.
Anthony Bass (RP) – 2.37 ERA; 0.895 WHIP; 8.1 SO9; 2.83 SO/W and 0.5 HR9 in 19.0 innings pitched.
Ian Krol (RP) – 2.63 ERA; 1.463 WHIP; 9.2 SO9; 2.33 SO/W and 0.7 HR9 in 13.2 innings pitched.
Jackson Stephens (RP) – 3.18 ERA; 1.147 WHIP; 9.1 SO9; 2.30 SO/W and 0.4 HR9 in 22.2 innings pitched.
Cody Reed (RP) – 3.24 ERA; 1.140 WHIP; 12.4 SO9; 3.29 SO/W and 0.5 HR9 in 16.2 innings pitched.
Matt Bowman (RP) – 3.72 ERA; 1.500 WHIP; 7.9 SO9; 1.42 SO/W and 0.5 HR9 in 19.1 innings pitched.

Hitters

Hitters in the Triple-A International League average a .264/.343/.439/.781 slash line during the 2019 season.

The Triple-A Louisville Bats hitters average a .262/.338/.419/.757 slash line during the 2019 season.

The Bats hitting ranks 11th among 14 International League teams with a .753 OPS.

The Louisville Bats top hitters

Brian O’Grady (1B) – .347/.449/.632/1.081 in 119 plate appearances.
Rob Refsnyder (RF) – .289/.366/.495/.861 in 112 plate appearances.
Nick Longhi (LF) – .298/.360/.481/.840 in 115 plate appearances.
Christian Colon (3B) – .316/.395/.397/.792 in 162 plate appearances.

Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts (Southern League – North Division)

The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts maintain a 21-16 record and reside in 2nd place in the 5-team Southern League North Division.

Roster Moves

Joe Mantiply assigned to 7-day Injured List (05/07/19).
TJ Friedl activated from the 7-day Injured List (05/07/19).
Alberti Chavez assigned to Chattanooga Lookouts from Billings Mustangs (05/09/19)
Tejay Antone assigned to the 7-day Injured List (05/10/19).
Rob Wooten activated from the 7-day Injured List (05/12/19).
Cory Thompson assigned to Chattanooga Lookouts from Daytona Tortugas (05/16/19).

Injured List (IL)

Nick Howard (04/02/19).
Cassidy Brown (04/22/19).
Ryan Hendrix (05/02/2019).
Joe Mantiply (05/07/19).
Tejay Antone (05/10/19).

The Perspective on Jose Siri from the Old Recliner

Over the past 3 weeks, 23-year-old center fielder, Jose Siri slashed .342/.380/.452/.832. Siri ranks 18th among qualified hitters in the Double-A Southern League with a .750 OPS. The three-week surge for Siri represents some of the best possible news for the Cincinnati Reds future, but that surge comes with a huge caveat, a .462 BAbip. During the 2018 Double-A season, Siri struggled with a 32% strikeout rate. Those struggles continued in the 2019 Double-A season with a 30% strikeout rate. Even during his three-week surge, Siri still maintained a 26% strikeout rate. Siri’s struggle with an excessive strikeout rate represents a significant barrier to major league success, but not an insurmountable barrier.

Pitchers

Pitchers in the Double-A Southern League average a 3.59 ERA; 1.286 WHIP; 8.9 SO9; 2.37 SO/W and 0.7 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts pitchers average a 4.18 ERA; 1.370 WHIP; 8.9 SO9; 2.04 SO/W and 0.9 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Lookouts pitching ranks 9th among 10 Southern League teams with a 4.18 ERA.

The Lookouts top pitchers

Tony Santillan (SP) – 3.34 ERA; 1.457 WHIP; 10.3 SO9; 2.00 SO/W and 0.5 HR9 in 35.0 innings pitched.
Scott Moss (SP) – 3.55 ERA; 1.485 WHIP; 12.3 SO9; 1.61 SO/W and 0.8 HR9 in 33.0 innings pitched.
Alex Powes (RP) – 1.50 ERA; 0.778 WHIP; 12.0 SO9; 4.80 SO/W and 1.0 HR9 in 18.0 innings pitched.
Joel Kuhnel (RP) – 2.29 ERA; 0.915 WHIP; 10.1 SO9; 4.40 SO/W and 1.4 HR9 in 19.2 innings pitched.

Hitters

Hitters in the Double-A Southern League average a .234/.319/.351/.670 slash line during the 2019 season.

The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts hitters average a .252/.337/.387/.724 slash line during the 2019 season.

The Lookouts hitting ranks 2nd among 10 Southern League teams with a .724 OPS.

The Lookouts top hitters

Ibandel Isabel (1B) – .244/.306/.496/.802 in 144 plate appearances.
Brantley Bell (2B) – .264/.355/.443/.799 in 122 plate appearances.
Jose Siri (CF) – .293/.356/.421/.777 in 150 plate appearances.
Tyler Stephenson (C) – .279/.347/.419/.766 in 98 plate appearances.
Taylor Trammell (LF) – .259/.386/.371/.757 in 145 plate appearances.
Alfredo Rodriguez (SS) – .303/.350/.358/.708 in 118 plate appearances.
TJ Friedl (RF) – .213/.356/.330/.686 in 119 plate appearances.

Advanced-A Daytona Tortugas (Florida State League – North Division)

The Advanced-A Daytona Tortugas maintain a 19-18 record and reside in 2nd place in the 6-team Florida State League North Division.

Roster Moves

Julio Pinto assigned to Daytona Tortugas from Dayton Dragons (05/10/19).
Andy Cox assigned to Daytona Tortugas from Dayton Dragons (05/15/19)

Injured List (IL)

Hunter Greene (04/02/2019).
Ryan Olson (05/03/2019).

The Perspective on Jonathan India from the Old Recliner

Over the past 3 weeks, 22-year-old third baseman, Jonathan India, began establishing a star by his prospect status by slashing .262/.366/.557/.924 that included 4 doubles, 1 triple and 4 home runs in 71 plate appearances. The Cincinnati Reds invested a lot of their future success in Jonathan India when they selected the third baseman in last season’s Rule 4 draft. If India can ride this recent wave of success to a mid-season promotion, he could factor into the near-term success at the major league level. He certainly has the tools and capability to produce results that would fast track his development.

Pitchers

Pitchers in the Advanced-A Florida State League average a 3.44 ERA; 1.265 WHIP; 8.9 SO9; 2.69 SO/W and 0.6 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Advanced-A Daytona Tortugas pitchers average a 3.87 ERA; 1.295 WHIP; 8.9 SO9; 3.30 SO/W and 0.9 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Tortugas pitching ranks 10th among 12 Southern League teams with a 3.87 ERA.

The Tortugas top pitchers

Packy Naughton (SP) – 2.35 ERA; 1.252 WHIP; 9.4 SO9; 5.00 SO/W and 0.0 HR9 in 38.1 innings pitched.
Cory Thompson (RP) – 1.96 ERA; 0.739 WHIP; 9.8 SO9; 6.25 SO/W and 0.8 HR9 in 23.0 innings pitched.
John Ghyzel (RP) – 2.08 ERA; 1.327 WHIP; 8.3 SO9; 2.00 SO/W and 0.0 HR9 in 17.1 innings pitched.
Wendolyn Bautista (RP) – 2.35 ERA; 0.978 WHIP; 11.2 SO9; 4.75 SO/W and 0.6 HR9 in 15.1 innings pitched.
Aneurys Zabala (RP) – 2.45 ERA; 1.227 WHIP; 9.4 SO9; 2.88 SO/W and 0.0 HR9 in 22.0 innings pitched.

Hitters

Hitters in the Advanced-A Florida State League average a .240/.314/.351/.665 slash line during the 2019 season.
The Advanced-A Daytona Tortugas hitters average a .245/.314/.351/.656 slash line during the 2019 season.
The Tortugas hitting ranks 7th among 12 Florida State League teams with a .656 OPS.

The Tortugas top hitters

Jonathan India (3B) – .267/.356/.466/.821 in 149 plate appearances.
Mark Kolozsvary (C) – .230/.356/.410/.766 in 73 plate appearances.
Jose Garcia (SS) – .257/.325/.400/.725 in 77 plate appearances.
Alejo Lopez (2B) – .288/.355/.360/.715 in 156 plate appearances.
Hendrik Clementina (C) – .265/.286/.402/.688 in 105 plate appearances.

Low-A Dayton Dragons (Midwest League – Eastern Division)

The Low-A Dayton Dragons maintain an 13-24 record and reside in 8th place in the 8-team Midwest League Eastern Division.

Roster Moves

Michael Siani assigned to the 7-day injured list (05/07/2019).
Carlos Machorro assigned to Dayton Dragons from Billings Mustangs (05/10/19).
Adrian Rodriguez assigned to Dayton Dragons from Greeneville Reds (05/11/19).
Jhon De Jesus assigned to the 7-day injured list (05/11/19).
Michael Siani activated from the 7-day injured list (05/14/19).

Injured List (IL)

Ryan Campbell (04/19/2019).
Jacob Heatherly (04/24/2019).
Jhon De Jesus (05/11/2019).

Pitchers

Pitchers in the Low-A Midwest League average a 3.72 ERA; 1.343 WHIP; 9.5 SO9; 2.31 SO/W and 0.6 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Low-A Dayton Dragons pitchers maintain a 5.16 ERA; 1.557 WHIP; 10.5 SO9; 2.31 SO/W and 0.8 HR9 during the 2019 season.

The Dragons pitching ranks 16th among 16 Midwest League teams with a 5.16 ERA.

The Dragons top pitchers

Ricky Salinas (RP) – 3.63 ERA; 1.500 WHIP; 14.0 SO9; 3.86 SO/W and 1.6 HR9 in 17.1 innings pitched.

Hitters

Hitters in the Low-A Midwest League average a .235/.325/.350/.674 slash line during the 2019 season.

The Low-A Dayton Dragons hitters average a .216/.295/.331/.625 slash line during the 2019 season.

The Dragons hitting ranks 15th among 16 Midwest League teams with a .625 OPS.

The Dragons top hitters

Shard Munroe (LF) – .245/.376/.426/.802 in 117 plate appearances.
Juan Martinez (3B) – .255/.372/.373/.744 in 124 plate appearances.
Pabel Manzanero (C) – .254/.271/.456/.727 in 101 plate appearances.
Mariel Bautista (LF) – .250/.322/.430/.752 in 115 plate appearances.

34 Responses

  1. matthew hendley

    Good Roundup. Like the Critic about Siri. Obvious that he has not solved his strikeout issues, Latest hitting streak, while good based on an unsustainable BABIP. No where near ready for a MLB look. Strikeout rate needs to drop by 7 percent or we will just end up with Billy Hamilton V2.

    • Warren Leeman

      There have been a few outlier players capable of success at the major league level while juggling a 30% strike out rate, but the odds are certainly stacked against Siri if he continues to deal with a 30% strike out rate.

      • ToBeDetermined

        If someone asked me to tell them the 1st name that comes into my mind when they say player with highest strikeout rate I’d say “Dave Kingman”

        In his career spanning 1971 to 1986 Kingman had 7,429 plate appearances and stuck out 1,816 times. That came out to 24%.

      • ToBeDetermined

        Hey me.

        That’s not the correct amount on Kingman. Me calculated it wrong.

      • Big Ed

        Joey Gallo comes to mind. He is having a breakout year this year, too.

        I think you undersold India’s current hot streak in the “perspective” paragraph on him. In 13 games in May, he’s slashed .333/.455/.622./1.077, which is spectacular for that league. I was a little discouraged about him last year, but he is looking like he’s ready to be movin’ on up.

      • Matt WI

        Think no further than once upon a time Red, Drew Stubbs. Guy eeked out a 9 year career but had a career 30.7% K ratio. Yeesh!

      • Warren Leeman

        For reference…

        Adam Dunn => 28.6% SO, 25.6 WAR
        Ryan Howard => 28.2% SO, 19.5 WAR
        Giancarlo Stanton => 28.0 SO, 38.8 WAR

      • ToBeDetermined

        Is Siri expected to have the type of power of any of those guys you mention ?

      • Warren Leeman

        @TBD…

        2016 in 255 PA at Billings Siri produced a .241 ISO.
        2017 in 552 PA at Dayton Siri produced a .237 ISO.
        2018 in 283 PA at Pensacola Siri produced a .245 ISO.

        Siri has a 55 rating for raw power. The potential is there.

    • Lwblogger2

      I don’t think so on that. He has way more power. I agree that the poor K-rate will not play in the Majors. He’d end up with a 35% K-rate or perhaps higher. He’d hit some HR and play good defense but would likely struggle to reach the Mendoza line and would probably carry an OBP well south of .300.

  2. Roger Garrett

    Do you think Longhi can move up to the big club?When will Sir or India move up to the next level in your opinion.I know its early but these two guys seem to be getting it.

    • Warren Leeman

      Personal opinion, I don’t think Longhi will make the transition to major league competition, other than a cup of coffee here and there.

      Siri stays at AA this season unless he can be more selective at the plate. He can play defensively at the major league level right now, but I just think major league pitchers will chew him up and spit him out with his current plate approach. He probably moves up to AAA next season irrespective because there are other OF coming up behind him who will need playing time at AA next season.

      If India has actually turned a corner in his brief professional career and continues to rake, he will be a mid-season promotion to AA and could possibly see AAA next season. He can successfully carry a .260 AVG with his on-base skills and power.

  3. Chris Holbert

    I would not at all be surprised if India surpassed most of the other “top” prospects. i t seems highly drafted college players are already ahead in development. It is not always the case, but major college players in a highly competitive conference, usually get it quickly.

  4. David

    Bobby Bonds, who came up to the SF Giants in 1968 at age 22, averaged about a 25% strike out rate for the first part of his career with SF.

    His career strikeout rate was around 21%.

    Bobby Bonds might be a good comp for Jose Siri. Bonds played 14 seasons and had 332 career homers, with a lifetime 0.268 BA.

    • Brian S Jolley

      If he resembles Bobby Bonds in any way in his career with the Reds I would be absolutely thrilled. These things are so hard to predict. I just looked at all the Reds first round draft picks the past 20 years and then looked below to see who they could have picked. It was not a very encouraging exercise. For example, selecting Mike Leake instead of Mike Trout. My point though is that it is so hard to tell even for people who make their livings trying to do so. The current regime seems to have a little better handle on it though.

    • ToBeDetermined

      David
      How did you calculate his strikeout rate.
      I thought it would be SO / PA
      But, I could be wrong
      If that’s not how you calculate it then my Dave Kingman example above would be incorrect.

      thanks

      Yea, it looks like I need to subtract Walks and maybe HBP from the PA. But, I don’t know where to get that. So, Kingman’s is definitely higher.
      Sorry for the confusion.
      Maybe someone can help me out on that one.

      • Warren Leeman

        @TBD, you are correct.
        SO/PA=SO%
        BB/PA=BB%

      • ToBeDetermined

        Warren

        If I’m right. Then WOW, 30% is hideous.
        Especially in the minor leagues. You get to the majors and they have so much more information about your strengths and weaknesses and they have pitchers who can execute a game plan against you.

      • Matt WI

        TBD– if you look up “advanced hitting stats” on Baseball-Reference it already has it calculated for you– you were right at 24%

  5. Brian S Jolley

    I really enjoy and appreciate this series of posts. Thank you.

    • Warren Leeman

      TYVM Brian. I really enjoy sharing the information and opinions.

  6. WVRedlegs

    The fans is Dayton have to be tremendously disappointed in what the Reds have assigned there. Brutal. Maybe that changes after the draft in a few weeks.
    It is amazing the K/9 that Lucas Sims and Cody Reed are putting up at AAA. Reed should already be in Cincinnati. If a RH reliever goes down, would the Reds call up Sims for a bullpen spot?
    I thought this comment was the most surprising, at first, “The Lookouts pitching ranks 9th among 10 Southern League teams with a 4.18 ERA.” With all the good pitching that is assigned there, that was stunning to see.
    But then I read further and I blurt out a “No way!” I was in complete disbelief when I read, “Alfredo Rodriguez (SS) – .303/.350/.358/.708 in 118 plate appearances.” This is a situation that will need to be monitored through the season. Sure SSS, but that is a quarter of the season with 118 PA’s. Like the little kid in the Clorox commercial, “Mom, we have a situation here.”
    Good job as always.
    Who do you have the Reds selecting at #7 in the first round? Just 2 1/2 weeks away. The college pitcher most mocks have going to the Reds at #7 will most likely be off the board by #7.

    • Warren Leeman

      @WVRedlegs, I tend to try and avoid guessing what someone else will do and the 1st 7 picks in the Rule 4 draft whole bunch of someones doing something.

      I’m not a big fan of drafting HS prospects unless they are just too good to pass up. Bobby Witt Jr. is the only HS prospect in this draft that I would touch with a top 10 pick and he will be gone well before the #7 pick.

      As the draft gets closer, I finding Bryson Stott more and more interesting, especially if they could sign him well below slot value.

  7. Eric the Red

    Good stuff. May I humbly suggest regularly adding details on the AAA guys that are maybe of extra interest when thinking about the big club? I mean guys like Ervin and Schebler, and some of the “experienced” pitchers like Reed and Romano. Even if they haven’t had a noteworthy week one way or the other, I’d get even more out of this excellent review with regular updates on those sorts of players.

    • Warren Leeman

      Please don’t hesitate offering suggestions. I welcome all rational feedback for discussion. I think that’s what blogs are (should) be about. That’s certainly what brought the Old Cossack to Chad’s and now Doug’s creation.

      I have actually been trying to figure out a way to balance more input regarding when and how MLB-ready or nearly ready prospects might impact the Big Club.

  8. ToBeDetermined

    Warren

    Thanks for the info on these guys.
    It is much more interesting now that the Reds have one of the more upper tier farm systems rather than bottom quartile.

  9. Chris Holbert

    I think the farm system is definitely better than previously, but I still do not see too many high end guys. I see Atlanta, San Diego, Tampa , Yankees, etc…churning out productive players one after the other. The Reds have not drafted too far from the bottom feeding clubs in the past few years. I have to wonder if we are coaching them up as well as could be, especially pitchers, in the system.

    • Warren Leeman

      I believe there are two issues impeding the ‘elite’ talent missing from the organization. First is the lack of high end prospects from the mishandling of trades that should have replenished the farm with elite talent. Second is the lack of inroads and effort to sign Latin America talent for years.

      Unfortunately, those issues are water over the dam at this point thanks to the Baseball Org from the previous decade. You are correct. There are holes in the prospect talent on the farm that the Reds are going to be paying for if they are serious about competing going forward.

      • Chris Holbert

        I would agree. It would seem to me that AA may be where most the future lies, but it seems there is a bit of a potential age issue. A lot of those guys seem to be 22 to 24. That would seem to make most of them at least 2 years away, if they become productive MLB players. At 24 and in AA, I wonder how that equates to helping anytime soon, with the “rebuild”.

  10. jreis

    thank you for the update Warren. I saw some lookout games recently and I got to tell I think Siri is ready to play centerfield today. defensively he may be Billy Hamilton but offensively he is much better. he is much better than Senzel in centerfield and has great instincts. I think Friedl looks major league ready too. he is going to be a pleasant surprise for the reds. Trammel to me was a little bit of a disappointment to. he still looks kind of raw up there at the plate and doesn’t have a very strong arm. I don’t really understand all the advanced stats that you use but that is just my assessment!

  11. Chris Holbert

    In looking at the AA stats. Tyler Stephenson may be closer, than some of the others. Face it, that is a glaring weakness on he big club, unless his catching skills are really bad. Always heard C was the quickest way to the majors. The Reds could definitely use an upgrade there.

  12. matthew hendley

    Triple A information now out of Date: Odrisamer Despaigne has opted out of his reds contract. and has been released.

  13. Curt

    Can Brian O’Grady play any other position than 1st? Am I seeing it right? Looks like he is killing it.

    And yes, thanks very much for this series Warren.

  14. Eddiek957

    A couple of questions you may provide insight for me Cossack. Do you think Alfredo Rodriguez is developing into a productive hitter? Why would a top prospect like India be played at a position that is blocked at the major league level? Nice article I’ve always appreciated your views on reds baseball. That includes when your view differed from my own