When a team has an 8-0 lead in the 3rd, they have a 98.8% chance of winning.

When they lead 10-3 in the 5th, they have a 99.0% chance of winning.

When they lead 11-7 in the 7th inning, they have a 97% chance to win.

When they’re ahead 11-10 with two outs in the 9th, they have a 96.4% chance.

Reds 11 – Giants 12 | Game 31 of 162

Box Score | Win Probability | Exit Velocity | Pitch Velocity

Run Prevention

Sonny Gray made it through five innings. He struck out two and walked three. The fact that he qualified for a Win tonight, but not in his previous five starts when he’d struck out 36 batters and walked four should tell you what you need to know about the value of pitcher Wins. And should make you wonder why certain broadcasters spend so much time babbling about it. Gray looked good the first three innings, but struggled with control in the final two. He was pulled after throwing 82 pitches. 

Wandy Peralta pitched the 6th. He gave up four hits and four earned runs. The Giants managed five singles in the 8th inning off of Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias, scoring three runs before Iglesias struck out Brandon Crawford to end the threat. 

Raisel Iglesias retired the first two batters in the 9th before Stephen Vogt hit a 97-mph fastball 386 feet into the Moon Deck in right field to tie the game 11-11. 

Jared Hughes pitched a clean 10th inning with two strikeouts. Hughes wasn’t as effective in the 11th, giving up a leadoff homer to Evan Longoria. 

The Reds played good defense. Joey Votto saved a run in the 3rd inning diving for a ball down the line. Derek Dietrich contributed with the glove when he laid out to his left for a ground ball that would have been a bases-loaded single. Nick Senzel chased down a ball over his head in deep center. 

Run Production

Have a night, Nick Senzel! Derek Dietrich! Jeff Brantley called the shot. Called ’em both.

“This should be a good match-up for Dietrich,” said the Reds broadcaster as Derek Dietrich settled into the batter’s box in the bottom of the 1st inning against the Giants starting pitcher Tyler Beede. “Dietrich is good fastball hitter and he likes them outside where he can get his arms extended. And Tyler Beede is a young pitcher who will probably be reluctant to pitch inside.” 

Just as The Cowboy finished that statement, Dietrich drilled the third pitch of the at bat 348 feet into the right field bleachers. The homer drove in Jesse Winker and Yasiel Puig who had singled. In the bottom of the third, Dietrich blasted a Beede pitch for another 3-run homer. This time Dietrich hit it 410 feet deep into the right-center seats.  

In addition to Dietrich’s bombs, Jesse Winker had three hits including two doubles. Yasiel Puig had two hits. Kyle Farmer had two hits, including his fourth homer of the year. Tucker Barnhart, batting ninth, had two walks. Jose Iglesias had two hits. 

Nick Senzel was 1-5 with two walks and strikeout. Senzel’s single in the 9th inning dribbled about 30 feet down the 3rd base line.

At least that’s out of the way. Senzel showed excellent plate discipline during long at bats his first two trips to the plate and also later in the game. It was good to see it. Senzel has always had a superb 10+% walk-rate in the minor leagues, but he hadn’t walked a single time in 39 PA in spring training.   

The Reds offense showed a sign of life tonight with 13 hits and 3 homers. It was evident they weren’t facing Jacob deGrom and 100-mph Noah Syndergaard fastballs. 

What’s Next

The Reds (13-19) and Giants (14-18) play again tomorrow night at 7:10 PM ET. The starting pitching matchup features starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Dereck Rodriguez (26, RHP). 

130 Responses

  1. CincyBorn23

    The Reds are not a good baseball team.

    • RojoBenjy

      The Reds do not have a good baseball team manager.

  2. WVRedlegs

    This one hurt more than losing 1-0 on a pitchers home run.

  3. Brad

    Sitting here at the game and it is more than an embarrassment. I have to put at least 3 runs David Bell. 1st base open , 2 out with the pitcher on deck and you pitch to the Number 8 hitter? Of course he hit a 3 run jack. Almost at my limit with this team.

    • #22 Double Deuce

      Totally agree. Bell always has a “deer in the headlights look about him.” He has no feel for the game.

  4. Ethan L

    I said it at the beginning of the year when everyone was yakking about this team contending for the playoffs: I will consider this season a success if we lose 89 games or less. Tonight shows that this team does not have what it takes to contend at all. That is why an 89- loss season should be our goal. Absolute garbage tonight!

  5. Jeff Morris

    Only the Reds figure out a way to lose a game, where they had Big Leads.

  6. matthew hendley

    Lost a must win game as well. Must sweep the rest of them. Deitrich should start tomorrow. Votto is not going anywhere. I am sure he is already in the Batting cages trying to figure things out. Say what you will, the man is a professional.

    • lost11found

      The sunsets happen when they happen. maybe he will figure something maybe he will not. only time will tell.

      • Jim Walker

        Exactly. I think Votto is busting his back side trying to figure something out; but, if the clock is closing in on midnight, there is only a limited amount he can do.

        We have to accept that Joey is what he is now and not what he was even very recently. As you said time will tell us day to day, week to week and ultimately month to month what is left in the tank.

        The only thing we can count on is that whatever he’s got left to give, he will find a way to give 100% of.

      • daytonnati

        I do think he seems uncomfortable leading off. I would slide him down to 5, maybe, and see what happens?

  7. Sliotar

    The Giants broadcast (because he’s though he is old now, Duane Kuiper still runs rings around Thom) stated that Votto went 0 for 7 one other time in his career, in 2013.

    3 more K’s tonight, at least one virtually every game now for Votto.

    If he stays in the leadoff spot continuing this way, hard to take seriously that the Reds are even trying to win, and instead are catering to him.

    • Vancouver Dave

      Batting a player who has won seven of the last nine NL OBP titles leadoff is proof that the team isn’t serious about winning?

      • greenmtred

        By your reasoning, Schebler should be playing a lot and batting in the upper half of the order. At some point, what’s happening this season needs to be factored in. Votto may well start hitting, but he’s struggling now.

      • matthew hendley

        2 things, Votto cant hit from the Bench. Schebler is not an all star in preputium. Votto is. Votto is having a bad stretch, that is true, but he will get out of it. Schebler may not.

      • greenmtred

        I was only saying that moving a guy’s slot in the batting order based on what he’s been doing this season is not unreasonable. And no, Schebler isn’t Votto, but, like Votto, he has played much better in the past than he has so far this year.

    • matthew hendley

      Disclaimer: its a free country, of course. That said, if you start your argument with, I listened to the other teams broadcast. your argement is invalid, and I don’t care if you are arguing that the sky is blue. The only reason there should be a non reds broadcast for a Reds game is Blackout restrictions.

      • Matt WI

        Absolutely not. Listening to the other team’s broadcast demonstrates multiple things– including being open to outside views instead of your own thought bubble. But also, and I can’t stress this enough, Thom is so bombastic that many, many rational people choose not to listen to him despite being Reds fans. Don’t go policing that in the name of what counts. A real fan can also own the faults. I know you like Thom and bless your heart for it.

      • matthew hendley

        It would be different if there was an option waiting in the wings, there isn’t. Jim day isn’t even close to Thom. And while I admit I sort of wrote the above while the wound of last nights loss was still fresh, of course, do what you want. I just find it akin to listening to ISIS videos to explain the progress of American forces in Iraq/Syria.

      • Matt WI

        Matthew, it’s exactly NOT like that at all. Get some perspective, please. It’s sports. If you honestly feel that it compares to religious extremism, you need to know that 99.9% of us don’t.

    • Tony Cloninger

      Catering to him how? You think he is demanding to be hitting 1st. Talk about showing g your true colors about how you really feel about player. He must be purposely making Bell play him of course. It’s not like anyone else is not sucking it in the order. But it must be him.

  8. WVRedlegs

    Maybe the Reds can make a trade with the Dodgers to try and right their ship.

    • Sliotar

      With all due respect, who do the Reds have to trade?

      I used the word “bums” in the pre-game and it still applies to many, IMO.

      They can’t go much further depleting the farm system… many of the guys the Reds used tonight are 30 or older, or soon will be. Hopefully, there are replacements coming.

      Reportedly, the Dodgers would not part with Verdugo/Stripling for Kluber and 3 years of control. Who do the Reds have to match that?

      • Hanawi

        Any team in baseball could have had Aquino for free last year, but no one claimed him. Mella and Gutierrez are both struggling mightily in AAA and Siri is back in AA at the age of 24. None of those guys are getting anything in return with the possible exception of Gutierrez if he doesn’t kill all his value this year.

    • RojoBenjy

      @Sliotar
      I suspect the trade with LAD comment is a sarcastic one.

    • Matt WI

      Maybe time to quit banging the Dodger trade? You’d rather they kept Homer or had no money to compensate anyone else if they DFA’d him? They made a move to try something new. It was not irrational to expect Puig to hit better than last year’s OF. Farmer is a bench player, it’s fine. Kemp was a pill to swallow. Wood’s back sucks, but him not pitching is the same as Homer not pitching. Nobody said they were WS contenders after that move. But really, that horse is dead. Who knows what the next months will bring. Move along to the next diatribe.

      • PhP

        I dont get it either. Loved the trade at the time and still do. Unless the prospects turn into studs in the future it’s not a bad deal at all.

  9. Chris Holbert

    Another 5 inning start tomorrow, Roark, then who???

    • matthew hendley

      Bob steve was saved as was david Hernandez

    • Jim Walker

      They’ll be needing the 14th pitcher again.

  10. Tim Gates

    I have been a fan of the Cincinnati Reds since I was 8 years old(1975). I live in central NY State which is the heart of Yankee country. It is not, and never has been, easy to cheer for the Reds with all of the Yankee fans telling me how great the Yanks are. After tonight I think I just need a break. I’m simply embarrassed at the complete ineptitude of this team. It just never seems to change. A complete joke.

  11. Reddawg12

    On the bright side, it was around April 15th that I gave up hope last season. I made it until May 3rd this season!

  12. Coachgates

    I have been a fan of the Cincinnati Reds since I was 8 years old(1975). I live in central NY State which is the heart of Yankee country. It is not, and never has been, easy to cheer for the Reds with all of the Yankee fans telling me how great the Yanks are. After tonight I think I just need a break. I’m simply embarrassed at the complete ineptitude of this team. It just never seems to change. A complete joke.

    • James H.

      Most recent travesties…
      Pitcher hitting a home run to score the only and winning run of the game: Reds.
      Up by insane amt and a still lose: Reds.
      Everything that sucks about baseball, these guys are doing it. It’s like they have a “what else can we do wrong” checklist.

  13. Bdh

    I guess I learned today that not even a 10-3 lead can prevent Bell from over managing a game into a loss. Didn’t they announce that the fireworks had to be canceled too since the game ran late? Double whammy from Bell to Reds fans tonight

    • RojoBenjy

      Some of the overmanaging occurred before this game with using up the ‘pen. Many posters have wondered when the overtaxed relief corps would show cracks…now we know when.

      • greenmtred

        Others have pointed out before that the Reds’ ‘pen is being used pretty much the same way as most other teams’ ‘pens. When the evidence is that starters falter when the other team’s hitters see them the third time, it stands to reason that you’d go the relief pitchers before the sky falls in. Maybe they were ineffective last night because they’ve been over-worked, and maybe not. They’ve been pretty good up until that game, so if it’s over-work, than the last game against the Mets was a pretty serious straw on the camel’s back.

    • Still a Red

      Earlier posts mentioned that maybe if the Reds had a bigger lead, DB would not go the bull pen so quickly. Apparently not. So Gray got erratic in the 4th, he righted himself in the 5th. He still only had 85 pitches. Let him pitch a little more. OR maybe you bring in Peralta in a easy situation? I just a shame to lose this one. Joey, where are you?

  14. Cyrus

    Steve, are these recaps, in the words of Joe Friday, “just the facts”? I’m used to you providing more opinion but tonight’s recap seemed sterile.

    • HoosierRed

      I agree with this. I used to love reading these recaps, but they have all been boring this year.

    • RojoBenjy

      My guess is that he’s too numb. I know I am.

    • lost11found

      his pointed opinions are for those he’s not a fan of. either no targets from last night or too many. 🙂

  15. Scott Gennett

    Bruce Bochy 12 – David Bell 11. Very poor managed game by DB. Countless non-sense decisions. Time to start thinking about Votto’s future role after a 0-7 night and a .688 OPS for the season. Also Kemp, Peraza, Peralta and Duke; all deadweight.

    • Reddawg12

      If we’re talking about dead weights, I think Scott Schebler has to be included.

  16. Big Ed

    Is Votto still wearing his “Decline Phase” t-shirt?

    It’s gonna be brutal watching him for another $120 million. Teams have figured out that his bat isn’t really gonna hurt them much, so they just pound the strike zone, mostly with fast balls.

    He is still as good of a base runner as he ever was, though.

    • scotly50

      “He is still as good of a base runner as he ever was, though.”

      Nice Quip

  17. Kypodman

    Over managed game, why would you double switch out the player with 2 3-run bombs (and 3 hits) and your hottest hitter with 3 hits on the night. Also, pitch to the 8 hitter with 2 outs, first base open and 2 on.

    • Kypodman

      And replace them with 2 guys hitting below 200

    • doofus

      Exactly. Bell over managed himself into double-switching the two Red’s hitters who were hitting Giant pitchers: Winker and Dietrich 6 for 9 combined.

      Votto should start to consider a gig with the RCMP.

  18. TR

    The San Francisco jinx strikes again (2012 playoffs and two Bengal super bowl losses). Senzel looks like a positive in centerfield.

    • Doc

      Senzel did everything he said he would! He said that hitting behind Votto meant his job was that every time Votto got on base Senzel needed to drive him in. He did exactly that!

      I am well out of the Reds market and am limited to Sirius XM broadcasts, but I can’t stomach Brenneman so I don’t listen to Reds broadcasts. I want to hear play by play and insightful commentary, not the ramblings of some old man and ASK MARTY anything stupid questions. I frequently turn to opposition broadcasts so I can actually hear the game or I watch the play-by-play on Gameday or Scorecard. I’m neither ashamed of it nor embarrassed by it.

  19. Don

    Every batter tries to hit home run with upper cut swing every at bat for every count and all situations.
    Bottom of 9th and 10th leadoff hitter both get on in tie game. Next batter strikes out swinging for fences. Just bad baseball. Playing the game by computer analytics and not playing situational baseball is root cause. This is modern baseball run by analytics. Every move was most likely the statistically correct analytical move. Problem with the theory is that game is played by humans and not robots programmed with the analytics.

    • RichS

      Bingo! Games are managed like video games. Why do we need real players?

    • Doc

      The hitters are not playing by computer analytics, they are playing by where the money is. HR get paid, singles do not. Sad situation.

      I would make any ball hit over the fence a ground rule double until the ninth inning!

      • lwblogger2

        Why not just go a step further and do what they do in some lower rec-league softball games; ball over the fence is an out?

        Chicks dig the long-ball… Ok, clearly dating myself with that one.

  20. Klugo

    Senzel looked very comfortable out there. I like this kid. He definitely knows what he’s doing at the plate.

    • RojoBenjy

      Unfortunately for him he has to be managed by a dude that doesn’t know what he’s doing in the dugout.

  21. Klugo

    Pitcher Wins are about as valuable as Win Probabilities.

  22. old-school

    The Reds had a tough week and last 2 days. Losing 1-0 and then 12-11 on consecutive days pretty much summarizes how this team doesn’t really have an identity or consistent formula for winning.

    Their should be some bullpen changes but its the offense that needs an identity and a plan now that the season is 20% complete.

    The Reds had good offense in 2017/18.
    2017:
    Joey Votto- 6.5 WAR , wRC+ 164 and top 3 in MVP
    Zack Cozart- 5.0 WAR, wRC+140
    Eugenio Suarez- 3.9 WAR, wRC +115
    Scooter Gennett -2.2 WAR, wRC+ 123

    Duvall and Schebler were both average hitters at wRC+ of 97/99 respectively, but surrounded by 4 elite hitters with good on base skills, their power helped create an offensive identity with 31/30 home runs respectively.

    2018:
    Gennett 4.5 WAR and wRC+125
    Suarez 3.9 WAR and wRC+ 135
    Votto 3.5 WAR and wRC+131
    Winker wRC+128
    Schebler wRC+109

    The Reds offense is desperately missing the 2017 bat of Cozart, the 2017/18 bat of Gennett and the 2017/18 bat of Votto. Their missing the power of 2017 from Schebler and Duvall. What to do in 2019?

    1.) Trust the outfield. Winker Senzel and Puig need to play every day x for the occasional day off. If these 3 guys don’t get it done, the offense is doomed. Send Schebler to AAA to get 100 at bats. He’s been awful but his lefty power bat might be found somewhere in AAA.
    2.) Put your hitters with plate discipline who can wear down opposing pitchers with quality at bats 1-4 and leave them there. Senzel/Votto/Suarez/ Winker.
    3.) Put Puig in the 5 hole and Dietrich in the 6 hole. Their job is to hit for power with guys on base ahead of them.

    The only way the offense can get back to 2017/18 levels is for the best hitters to lead this offense. Matchups and managing won’t create a high powered offense. Senzel, Votto, Suarez, Winker, and Puig are the core of this offense. Dietrich is supplying the pop. Schebler can still give some pop but needs to regroup in AAA. Gennett will certainly help that core, unless the team is so far out when he returns its moot.
    Go Reds.

    • Klugo

      There are going to be outlying performances. I’d put last night’s 12-11game in that file. So far, the pitching has been pretty consistent. This team just needs to start hitting for average. That’s it. They’ve hit for power. They just need people on base. The frustrating part is when we have the hitting, we don’t have the pitching and when we are pitching well, we don’t have the hitting. If we can just get it all in sync. It starts and ends with Votto, imo.

    • KDJ

      Are we really talking about the glory days of 2017/2018?
      We are in trouble.

  23. lost11found

    nights like last night are when baseball is not fun.

  24. doofus

    Senzel’s new nickname: “Ice.”

    • Doc

      Ice, depending upon the meaning assigned, could pretty well apply across the board to this team’s current players, with rare exception.

      Fortunately for them, the other two offensive outbursts were accompanied by quality pitching; the quality last night would require a different adjective.

      Is the concept of a long reliever dead? If you know you are likely to yank starters after five innings, why not have a bullpen with two or three guys prepared to go three innings? That only gets the long man through the lineup once, not violating the new holy grail of third time through.

  25. ohiojimw

    What is there to say about a mess last night? I thought Chris Welch summed it up well in his postgame comments.

    Chris said (paraphrasing) that every member of the Reds was probably thinking of the one very little thing they could have done differently which would have changed the outcome of the game.

    I had the volume muted and read his words off closed caption. So, I didn’t have his inflections to tell me if he was inferring he thought there were points when perhaps guys were less than totally focused in their effort. But I suspect just because he said what he said, that he was probably thinking that.

    Let’s hope that Welch was correct about what the individual Reds were thinking postgame because if he isn’t, the season truly is lost already.

    • matthew hendley

      What were the comments from the players? from Bell?

    • matthew hendley

      is there anyway to get this without paying?

  26. Steven Ross

    You can rip me all you want but I honestly feel Father Time is tapping Votto on the shoulder. He should not be leading off. Don’t spin the OBP, he can’t hit or run so far this year. Hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see it with Bell as Manager either.

    In response to Sliotar and Matthew: Duane Kuiper of the SF Giants, is one of the fairest and best broadcasters out there. Health reasons prevent Mike Krukow from doing color commentary for road games anymore but these two make it a joy to watch a game. I like Thom and Chris too but Kruk and Kuip are special.

    • Old-school

      Votto is in decline because he’s turning 36. He’s never going to accrue 5 WAR or hit 28 home runs or OPS at .950 again.

      That doesn’t mean he can’t be an above average hitter with good on base skills and 10-12 home runs for 2019/20. He’s become Joe Mauer. He needs to hit second though. Nick Senzel is the leadoff hitter.

    • Klugo

      Votto seems to do this every yr. Starts slow until someone starts ripping him. Then he goes off and finishes the yr batting .300. We need the Brennamans to start talking about how he’s past his prime. That usually does the trick.

      • matthew hendley

        but how will that work when no one listens to him? 😛

      • Big Ed

        He typically gets hot when I start giving him a hard time. But even my efforts are failing this time.

        Old Joe Mauer is a good comp (though not the base runner that JV is). Guys like Dave Magadan fit, too. Pujols.

    • Jim Walker

      In the 2018 season, Votto had 623 PAs and earned a wRC+ of 131 with an OPS of .836. In the last calendar year (4 May ’18 thru 3 May ’19) he had 611 PAs with a wRC+ of 124 and OPS of .818.

      However since the 2018 All Star Break in 323 PAs (i.e. about half a season), his wRC+ is 104 and his OPS is .746. Unless he posts really strong numbers between now and 2019 All Star break (2.5 months) that is going to be a significant seasonal equivalent drop off.

      Put these numbers alongside the drop off from 2017 when his wRC+ was 164 and OPS was 1.033: and, it would seem he is declining.

      The question is at what level can he stabilize and how long can he maintain that level.

      • Pete

        My concern is he is already fighting father time tooth and nail and this may be the best we can expect. No doubt Votto gets every last once from his talent but aging is a cruel master. If by All-Star break he is posting the numbers you suggest, and there is no hidden injury, we probably need a new first baseman, stat.

        In short, maybe he has stabilized. Then where are we? DD assumes firstbase?

      • Jim Walker

        Pete> Votto’s numbers since the 2018 AS break are in the league average range for all hitters. Assuming he can maintain or better where he stands for this year to date (83 wRC+; ~.690 OPS), ride it our with him until the AS break.

        I realize there is a huge amount of money in the balance; but, BB Reference estimates he has already made $153M without counting the outstanding balance on his contract. So, It is difficult to imagine Joey Votto just hanging around for a check if he becomes convinced he can’t be at least a league average hitter.

      • 19 Lost in space

        His base running blunder the other day was epic. He is in the zone. The twilight zone!

  27. Mason Red

    Be kind Reds fans. This is just another bump on that glorious road to 2020…or 2021….or 2022. Continue to listen to the eternal optimists who actually believe this franchise has a plan…or a clue.

  28. matthew hendley

    There were some significant positives that got overlooked in the travesty though.
    1. Senzel with a good 2BB, 1B, 1 run scored Debut. I think the batting second is temporary, until his feet are wet.
    2. Puig had a multi-hit game and was on base 3 times last night, its coming and I think its coming soon.

    3. Deitrich- nough said.

    4. Thoms broadcasting- Cause it was.

    • matthew hendley

      Oh I did forget. One of the Jose’s is also batting over .300 right now as well.

  29. Eric

    Ive said it before ill say it again Bell doesn’t belong…he had no feel for the game at all..he just looks at numbers only. Tunnel vision isnt good I either side of the stats vs scouts arguments. He has destroyed the bully, made bonehead decision after bonehead decision, and has completely lost this team trust. Half the bully leads the league in appearances yet they are middle of the pack in innings??? He is rediculous. I know this isn’t a competitive year and ive been disgusted by his handling of the team; i just hope he has enough intelligence and a small enough ego to adjust.

    • RojoBenjy

      That’s a good phrase, “He has no feel for the game.” Like when they talk about a pitcher having “a feel for his slider.”

      It’s that intangible quality that some’s got, and some ain’t.

    • Shchi Cossack

      Enter the role of Freddie Benavides. I found Freddie’s promotion to bench coach interesting and out-of-line with the other coaching additions. There is a place for good old common baseball sense in the new world of analytics. I think Freddie could have an impactful role in combining the full-on move to analytics with some god old fashioned baseball common sense. DB’s evolution as an on-field manager and member of the inner circle management team is a work in progress.

      I harken back to the Old Cossack’s first managerial role with the difficulties and challenges the faced and the mistakes made. DB is changing the culture within the clubhouse and the organization…dramatically. He’s making some mistakes but he’s making positive changes that will impact the future. He will make fewer mistakes and have more positive impact going forward. We can at least give him the benefit of more than a month after suffering through the years of ineptitude by his predecessors.

      • matthew hendley

        “DB is changing the culture within the clubhouse and the organization…dramatically.” Really, how? Specific examples? No. Cause he is not.

        This is a results oriented enterprise. The results of a baseball team are to win more games that they lose, and to win games at a roughly 60% rate or higher, if possible. David Bell has been provided the Best lineups, Pitching rotation, and Bullpen since 2013, and he is in the process of squandering it all. Poor Performance both from coaches (Ward) and Players (Peraza, TB, ZD) are not punished. Good performances from players are either not rewarded, (Deitirch, Farmer) or extremely late on promoting success, (Stephenson). He is not out clamoring for extensions to producers, he makes poor lineups (strategic planning), poor in game decisions (reflexive planning). He relies too much on his Dogma (analytics) despite the growing tendency for the shift to be beaten through either deliberate planning (bunting against, hitting against) or accidental contact.

        You Talk about his predecessors. You are right about Bryan Price. Dusty took the Reds to the playoffs 3 separate times, at least once with a lineup less then this years. Riggleman was never a long term solution, but acquitted himself in a situation that he was thrust into, with no control of his situation.

        David Bell needs to turn around his results, NOW. Even I know the Folly of demanding the firing of an individual on the first month of a three year deal. But Dusty was fired with a year left (a mistake without a doubt now), Talk about these fantasy positive influences and hopes of getting better sound a lot like the ‘positive momentum’ of last season.
        He needs to win games now. This years roster was not designed to take the early L in the season (re: Marlins), This roster was designed to Win this year. He needs to do so, and do it now.

      • RojoBenjy

        I would love to believe this.

        Does this mean that Freddie was ignored last night, though? Because Bell crippled his team with pointless moves.

    • Scott C

      I don’t remember it, I was too young, but in his first years as a head coach they hung Dean Smith in effigy, constantly calling for his resignation, but Smith was building a culture, not trying just to win but to build a climate of winning. That takes T-I-M-E. The years of neglect in the Reds clubhouse and trying to win the good old boys way is going to take some time. In fact up until the Michal Jordan/James Worthy Championship, the knock on Smith was he could win in the regular season but couldn’t win the big one. Now UNC has a legacy of 5 NCAA National Championships (actually 6 Frank McGuire’s team won one in 1957). I want the REDS to build that kind of culture, where we don’t rebuild constantly but reload.
      I can kind of get the idea that Joey should not be leading off right now but really who should be? I am confident that Joey will get it rolling, again T-I-M-E,

      • RichS

        Time is for high school kids. These are supposed to be pros who are ready when the bell rings. These are not government workers.

      • matthew hendley

        RIck S. Correct. 100% Correct. Not just the players, but the coaches as well

  30. WVRedlegs

    A lot of noise about Votto, age and a decline.
    But not one freaking word about the new lack of hitting coach Turner Ward.
    Ward has Votto’s head and approach all screwed up. Votto is trying to be a good soldier about it and be with the program. It isn’t just Votto that Ward has screwed up. Ward has Suarez looking bad. Ward has all the offensive players except Jose Iglesias all discombobulated.
    Give Bell an ultimatum, fire Turner Ward today.

    • Still a Red

      I’ve not read a word about what Ward may or may not be telling the Red’s hitters. No one here has dug up any major changes in hitter’s approach using any data or even eye-balls. Yes the Reds hitting was supposed to be better, and as suspicious as it may seem that with a new hitting coach the hitting has gone sourth, we can’t be sure without hearing more about what if anything Ward has tried to change. I can’t believe Ward would even try to change Votto’s approach.

  31. WVRedlegs

    Go David Bell, and take Turner Ward with you.

  32. Shchi Cossack

    If anyone jumped to the bottom of the thread without reviewing the earlier comments, I encourage you to read @old-school’s insightful and detailed comment above regarding the team’s identity. He lays out an excellent approach to dealing with the early season quagmire facing the Reds.

    The early season offensive identity did not anticipate having to deal with the number of holes in the lineup. While many questioned Schebler’s ability to handle the CF responsibilities defensively, I believe everyone expected a significant offensive upgrade in CF this season. Senzel was also the anticipated successor in CF, if not immediately, shortly after the season began. Everyone anticipated Scooter as a fixture at 2B with Peraza handling SS duties. Everyone anticipated a power addition to the OF by Puig. Everyone anticipated Votto and Winker to hit well above the Mendoza line. Well sometimes poop happens and we just have to deal with the situation. There are positive signs that the offense is on the verge of stabilizing and righting the ship.

    Senzel has now become the fixture in CF as anticipated. Winker his hitting a ton, .308/.400/.615 (that’s a cool 1.015 OPS) over the last 15 games. Puig appears to be getting ready to turn that early season corner we have been waiting for impatiently. Scooter is out for another month at least, but is anyone has not recognized the parallel between Scooter’s early season statement after being picked up off the scrap heap by the Reds and Dietrich’s early season statement after being picked up off the scrap heap by the Reds, do yourself a favor and take off those blinders.

    The holes are filling and the lineup may just be waiting for that consistent identity that @old-school referenced. Shoot, SS defense and offense may even be upgraded by Jose. The overall OF defense may be upgraded and the 3B defense may have returned to excellence. This team can still become an offensive juggernaut to support the upgraded pitching, but the pitching does need to be tweaked.

    • Old-school

      Nice comments. The upcoming road trip to SF and Oakland will be nicer to the pitchers than hitters but I’m circling that stretch the second half of May as a big opportunity to course correct things for the Redlegs, with a dive back into the NL central and some home cooking at GAPB for the offense.

    • RichS

      Wow! You must be watching a different team than I am . If their identity holds true, they should score about three runs the next three days.

      • Shchi Cossack

        I think you missed the point entirely RIch. The Reds identity has yet to be established, but the opportunity is coming. Naysayers may and probably will point to the early season struggles and shortcomings, but I choose to wait until the key pieces are in place before passing judgement.

      • matthew hendley

        With all due respect Cossack, I believe that you have missed the point. The designed losing has gone on long enough. When anyone is hired for a Job, especially one that has the potential for paying millions of dollars, you are expected to produce out the gate. Spring training is when you produce a identity etc. You also speak of pieces in place. Senzel is up. There is no other Position player prospect due up this year. The Pieces are here. Anyone else brought up will be either a pitcher or a bench piece.

      • RichS

        Cossack…I am a big fan but I have expectations from professionals. I expect my dentist to be proficient on my first visit. I expect my engineers to design a safe structure. I expect the players to produce. I do not see any taking a salary based on results. As fans we must insist on the best…unsatisfied with continued mediocrity.

      • Old-school

        Scooter is a key piece. The offense doesn’t miss him? He was nearly 5 WAR last year

      • matthew hendley

        Indeed, when is the 60th day of the IL over? His return will be important

      • PhP

        Mathew and Rich,
        Yes everyone wanted a better start and to start the season strong, but I think it’s laughable to just be like “they’re professionals they should win right now and if not fire them all”. You know they are also playing against professionals too? Baseball is a long season, you’re judging the Bell era based on 1 month! Not even a 1 full season. And you act like Senzel has been up the whole time, he’s played 1 frigging game, give me a break.

  33. matthew hendley

    MLB’s completely too early Mock draft has the reds taking LHP Nick Lodolo from Texas Christian. anybody know of this player?

  34. matthew hendley

    Tonight’s lineup
    1. Joey Votto
    2. Eugeno Suarez
    3. Jesse Winker
    4. Yasiel Puig
    5. Derek Dietrich
    6. Nick Senzel
    7. Jose Peraza
    8. Tanner Roark
    9. Tucker Barnhart
    Good to see DD in there, Hope Jose I absence is due to a planned night off.
    Hope Roark can stabilie and provide more then his usual.

    • Jim Walker

      If you missed it late, JI was hobbling around some after fouling a ball off his ankle/ foot area. I believe this was his next to last at bat. He reached and stayed in the game (and believe reached again); but he was still hobbling some.

      • matthew hendley

        Jim Walker, you are of course absolutely right. I completely forgot about that in the bigger events of the game. Hope it is short term and he is back at short in a few days.

  35. Shchi Cossack

    Josh VanMeter and Brian O’Grady continue to rake and taking turns destroying AAA pitching. VanMeter leads the AAA International League with a 1.189 OPS with O’Grady just behind and 2nd in the AAA International league with a 1.146 OPS. Last night was VanMeter’s turn against AAA pitching going 3-4 w/ 2-HR, 1-BB, 3-RBI, 2-R and 1-SB. VanMeter & O’grady are also #1 & #2 in SLG with both also top 10 in AVG & OBP.

    As an aside, it looks like our old pal Adam Duvall is getting his stroke and confidence back, slashing .320/.413/.699 in 121 PA. Maybe a trip to AAA for Schebler to regain his stroke and confidence would produce similar results.

    • matthew hendley

      Neither of which are top 30 Reds Prospects. Or have 40 man Roster Spots. VMTR has had no success prior to this season….and…..O’Grady actually looks like he has been improving on a curve. A change to the OF Corner may be in his near future. Currently a blocked in 1B. Something to monitor at least.
      Live in the Braves radio area, on the occasion that I listen to the radio for them, (which is also the local oldies station, go figure) they are monitoring Duvalls improvement, but also talking exclusively about him as a possible trade chip. Do agree that schebler should spend a few weeks, in a mashing the ball environment.

      • Hanawi

        40 man roster spot is easy to fix. Trahan is expendable. So is Duke for that matter. Could also target Reyes, Stephens or Lopez. I’d argue Siri as well. He doesn’t look like he’ll ever be consistent enough at the plate to make it to the majors. They could easily send Schebler or Peraza down to make room on the 25 man.

      • matthew hendley

        OK, Lets take Reyes and Stephens. 40 Man covered, Schebler goes down, and one of the two comes up as an OF replacement. The Reds seem to be stuck on this extra pitcher thing. So they will not DFA Duke for him. They also seem to have no interest in DFAing Duke at all.
        Things to think about.

      • Shchi Cossack

        I’m with you 100% @Hanawi. The 5th inning should have been a showme opportunity after the 4th inning fiasco, and if so, Gray showed. I think Gray got hosed by the umpire on the 4-pitch walk to Gerber and he looked solid through the best hitters the Giants could offer. That deserved at least an opportunity to begin the 6th inning, unless Gray opted out of the opportunity to go back out for the 6th inning. I find Gray opting out of an opportunity to compete, hard to envision.

        No question, DB needs to refine his bullpen substitution patterns and roles. Peralta has really confused that process with his smoke and mirror success early in the season. I think it’s time to move past this 8-man bullpen and work with a more flexible, better equipped 7-man bullpen with capable pitchers working longer outings rather than playing perpetual matchup combined with replacing the absolute LOOGY role with Garrett and Reed, LH relievers capable of pitching full inning(s) and getting both RH & LH hitters out.

        That leaves Duke facing a DFA and Peralta facing an option back to AAA.

  36. Shchi Cossack

    Matt Bowman came and went on the Louisville shuttle without sniffing time on the big league mound, but his 4 days off didn’t seem to impact him negatively. He logged a 2.0 IP stint last night with 1-BB, 1-SO and no runs.

    Bowman may fit nicely into the 2020 bullpen in a Hughes role. He needs to reduce his walk rate (5.19 BB/9), but his MLB career walk rate of 2.95 combined with his MLB career GB rate (56.9%) and career HR rate (0.72 HR/9) mirroring his 2019 performance at AAA (55.3% GB & 0.00 HR/9) bodes well for future success.
    has a

    • matthew hendley

      I thought Bowman could have been a useful tool this year. At least he is on the 40man. He should have been retained, he should have also been kept up for senzel, and someone else sent down.

  37. Wayne nabors

    reds recall cody reed and oprion schebler to louisville

  38. matthew hendley

    OMG!!!! Schebler Optioned, Reed Called up. Obviously the immediate replacement to the pitching need and Scheblers Confidence. Wonder about long term repercussions

    • matthew hendley

      Additional news of Secondary Value, Jameson Tallion also goes to the IL with Elbow trouble. Now is the time to make a move on the weekend Pirates.

    • matthew hendley

      Just a theory of course, But the furthering inbalence in the pitching/position player make up makes this move look like a short term move. Schebler will undoubtedly play everyday in LOU and bat somewhere close to where the reds want him to come back too. The question is, with this being Reeds Final option, will he stay up for the rest of the year? SPell the end of Zack Duke

    • 19 Lost in space

      Bell has trashed the bullpen in no time flat. His learning curve is brutal on a daily basis. Dude is in waaaaay over his head. He is probably worse than Price . Dad and grandpa were his only real qualifications for the job.

      Last night was the second time this season he didn’t walk the 8 place hitter with 2 out and 2 on and first base open allowing 3 run homers each time. This amongst numerous other bad decisions on a daily basis. Thought this guy was a metric guru. Instead he is trying to reinvent managing based on God only knows what.

      • Doug Gray

        This is going to be your warning – you can criticize things, but we aren’t going to allow insults, or insulting nicknames to be used. If I see it again you will be banned from posting.

  39. Hanawi

    Kemp released! Wow. That’s huge. Never would have expected the Reds to eat that money.

    • Steve Mancuso

      Fixed cost. The Kemp money was eaten when they dumped Bailey’s salary.

  40. Old-school

    Reds are committing to an identity and a core on offense.