The Reds got off to a great start in Queens when they scored four runs in the second inning. However, starting pitcher Tanner Roark was unable to hold that lead as walks burned him tonight. The Mets tied the game at 4 in the fourth inning when Wandy Peralta walked in the tying run on four pitches.

The Reds bullpen after Peralta got the job done, throwing 5.1 scoreless innings. Jesse Winker hit a 415 foot blast in the top of the ninth off Mets closer Edwin Diaz to give the Reds a 5-4 lead. Raisel Iglesias finished off the Mets with two scoreless innings, including striking out the final four hitters.

Final R H E
New York Mets (14-14) 4 6 0
Cincinnati Reds (12-16) 5 9 0
W: Iglesias (1-3) L: Diaz (0-1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Jesse Winker’s solo home run with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, giving the Reds a 5-4 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 42.6% (from 40.8% to 83.4%).

Positives

Jesse Winker blasted a ball 415 feet (104.5 EV) for his 8th home run of the season (new career high in HR). This is the same guy that hit only 5 home runs in an entire season in the minors in 2016. He was pumped too after the bomb. You have to love Winker’s passion.

Jose IglesiasTucker Barnhart and Jose Peraza all had RBI singles in the Reds 4-run second inning. They made Wheeler pay for walks to Puig and Schebler to get the inning started.

Yasiel Puig doubled and walked.

Jose Peraza had a 2-hit night in the leadoff spot. They were both legit hits too with both having an xBA > .500.

Scott Schebler walked twice, and he is now remarkably tied with Joey Votto for the team lead in walks with 14. Schebs has obviously had a miserable start to the season, but it is good to see him grinding out his plate appearances.

The Reds bullpen (Peralta, Hernandez, Garrett, Lorenzen and Iglesias) combined to pitch 5.1 scoreless innings of relief (2 H, 3 BB, 7 K). Rasiel Iglesias pitched two innings and struck out the last four Mets batters.

Joey Votto had a walk and a hit. Votto worked a great first inning AB before collecting an infield single with an exit velocity of a whopping 42.1 MPH. Votto also hit a ball 395 feet that resulted in an out (.620 xBA). Baseball is a crazy game.

Negatives

Tanner Roark could not get out of the 4th inning after walking the bases loaded. Roark was given a 4-0 lead in this one and proceed to give up 4 earned runs. His last inning was especially brutal as he had the #8 spot in the lineup up with two outs and no one on base. Roark proceed to walk the #8 hitter, give up a single to the pitcher, and then he walked the next two batters.

Wandy Peralta came in with the bases loaded in the 4th, and he walked the first batter on four pitches. Peralta has been great this season so far, but his control issues are something of concern as this season moves on.

Not so random thoughts…………

Jose Iglesias has got a lot of praise this season for his bat. I thought to myself when he had an RBI single tonight, “wow, how good has this guy been?”. I looked up the numbers to back that……and…….well……he hasn’t really been that good. Iglesias now has an 88 wRC+ following tonight’s 2-hit performance. That is right around his career wRC+ of 83 and his 2019 projected number of 80. That type of production is certainly fine given his incredible defensive ability, but his overall offense has been below average despite his .297 AVG. This is due to the fact that he has only walked 4 times and has a total of just 5 extra base hits.

David Bell decided to bring in Wandy Peralta with the bases loaded in the 4th inning. Peralta has been great this season, but this is the same pitcher that had a 6.15 BB/9 last season in 45.1 innings. The move should have been Garrett there. I have been a big Bell fan overall, but he has not delivered the promise that he would be progressive with his usage of relievers outside of going to them quickly. He did bring in Iglesias in the 8th inning, but he also called for a bunt in the 8th inning against a pitcher that was struggling to throw strikes.

Josh VanMeter continues to rake for Louisville. Nick Senzel was also 3 for 6 with a home run.

Up Next:

Reds at Mets
Tuesday, 7:10 PM
TV: FOX Sport Ohio
Luis Castillo (1.23 ERA/2.53 FIP) vs Jason Vargas (7.20 ERA/6.40 FIP)

36 Responses

  1. Grand Salami

    The Reds are the only team in MLB with a positive run differential and a losing record. Considering the hitting is getting back on pace, I really like this team as a plus .500 club this year!

    • da bear

      Not going to happen. The Brewers, Cubs, Cards are better teams.

      The positive run differential is a sham based on two blowouts. Mean value theorem. It’s far better to score 4runs a game than to score 1,1,2,4,12. The latter way you’re likely 2-3 or 1-4. The former 3-2 or 2-3….especially as well as the Reds have surprisingly pitched.

      • ToBeDetermined

        Da Bear
        You’re being a kill-joy. 🙂

      • Richard

        They ‘ll reach 500. The Reds have given up the fewest runs in the entire league. The bats will pickup as the pitching comes down … easily making up for the unusually unlucky record in 1 run game in the first 9 games.

  2. VaRedsFan

    FYI…Peralta did record the last out in the 4th…after the 4 pitch walk.

    • Doc

      Author had a rough time. Peralta, as you noted, faced 2 batters, not one. Also, Winker’s blast gave the Reds a 5-4 lead, as stated early in the article, not 2-0, as stated in the Biggest Play of the Game segment.

  3. Sliotar

    A lot of us (me certainly included) thought Winker leadoff, Votto 2nd was the optimal play at the top of the lineup.

    Tonight showed why Votto needs to stay at #2. He got his nightly K again tonight.

    However, when the guy ahead of him is on, Votto can be more selective (than usual) and maybe gets a boost from the pitcher in the stretch, worried about the runner. And, the hole at 1B.

    6 pitchers used? Insanity. At least a win came on a night where R Iglesias went 2 innings.

    As Old-School posted in the game thread, this is 1 of those 40 – 60 games that every team has up for grabs, really defines the final record. Good the Reds pulled it out.

    • matthew hendley

      Senzel has batted leadoff every game he has played for the bats, its pretty clear he is going to be the LO guy when he gets up. THat situation will sort itself out.

      • B-town fan

        Perhaps that’s true Matthew, but it might just be they are trying to get Senzel as many AB’s as possible.

      • Reddawg12

        I don’t think batting leadoff at AAA means he’s batting leadoff as soon as he gets called up. I would almost bet they bat him lower in the order at first to help him settle in. We all have to remember he’s a rookie who barely has 200 at-bats above AA.

  4. jessecuster44

    Jesse F’n Winker!!!!!

    This team is fun to watch.

  5. VaRedsFan

    Diaz pitched for the 3rd straight game today. So most likely out for tomorrow.
    Didn’t Scooter go yard vs. Diaz in the All Star game??

  6. matthew hendley

    ROark didn’t have it tonight. Shouldn’t have been out for the 4th at all. Oh well, bullpen came through, hitting came through. Da Wink came through, Schebs is at least demonstrating plate discipline and scored. Peraza did get 2 hits (which is good), but not when it counted (which is bad). At least it is not all bad with him.
    I would have bunted there as well, that wasn’t the issue. the issue was having possibly the worst person to bat leadoff, batting leadoff.

    Great on Senzel, it was a blowout in LOU but still good to see him heating up. Should be ready for which ever homestand we bring him up on. As far as J Vanmeter, cool story, who is losing their 40 man roster spot. ( a question I have asked 3 times tonight with no answer)

    • VaRedsFan

      They could DFA Duke for Vanmeter. Senzel takes Ervin’s spot.
      I doubt they go with 1 less reliever with the way Bell burns through RPs.

      • matthew hendley

        DFA Duke for JVMR. Then who do you DFA for Senzels spot. He too is not on the 40 man. I suppose you could 60 Day IL, Scooter or Kemp, but Scooter seems to be beating that timeline to get back. Kemps injury may also not take that long. It has seemed the FO has been against using the 60 day. Regardless, eventually the player comes back and the problem repeats.

    • Doc

      Unusual to get three hits and only have the third highest hit total on the team for the game. Glad to see Senzel finding his eye and some power. Still a lot to look forward to this season when some moves start.

      Bad thing about burning six RP tonight is that Duke wasn’t one of them. I hope the starter goes 7 and Stephenson 2 tomorrow.

      Wonder what they are doing with Ervin. Apparently 2018 season and 2019 ST didn’t mean much.

      • RojoBenjy

        I too, am frustrated with the non-use of Ervin. If anything, play him to see if he can build some trade value. Schebler sure doesn’t have any at this point. What is there to lose?

      • Reddawg12

        ST success should mean nothing. Scott Schebler is a perfect example.

      • Scott C

        But if Duke had been one of the pitchers tonight, we probably would have lost. Duke should only be used in mop up situations.

  7. VaRedsFan

    Iggy was only throwing 91 in the 8th. He did eventually pump it up in the 9th (96 I think). But his change up was truly nasty tonight.

  8. WVRedlegs

    Good win on the road. Blowing a 4 run lead isn’t good. Bullpen was amazing aside from Peralta walking in the tying run. The calender turns the page after tomorrow, maybe the bats will completely wake up then.
    It might be time to get Vanmeter up to the Reds. Might be the spark they need. Play him at 2B.

  9. jreis

    I think DB Is really putting a lot of emphasis on winning that first game of each series. which is interesting because that is more of an old school approach, but he definitely seems most aggressive with his moves in the first game. it is working because we are now 7-3 in series openers so far this year.

  10. da bear

    wRC is a flawed metric. Iglesias has been at least as productive offensively as Joey Votto this season. Joey has 15 runs+RBIs-HRs in 90 ABs (not plate appearances). Jose has 13 runs+RBIs-HRs in 74 ABs.

    That doesn’t even normalize for Joey batting mostly 2nd or 1st whereas Jose has been batting mostly 8th, 7th or 9th. Jose has produced just as much as Joey under fewer run production opportunities.

    Iglesias offensively has been a pleasant surprise, and his defense has saved numerous runs compared to the shoddy defensive capabilities of most Reds – outside of Puig (when he isn’t bobbling easy balls) or Suarez (same as Puig).

    • Wayne nabors

      Now just ain’t you a breath of fresh air tonight,

      • ToBeDetermined

        Da Bear strikes again. I commented on his ray of sunshine attitude above.

        BTW. Where were you when the Reds were 1 – 8.? I’m glad I didn’t see your comments then or I might have jumped out a window.

      • da bear

        At 1-8 I da barely stepped back off that ledge my friend….(my third eye is blind)

        Don’t mistake my 2019 pessimism for long term hopelessness! Despite the albatross of $25MM a year for one player the next few years….thanks to the enormously underpaid future production of Jesse Winker, Luis Castillo, Mahle, and hopefully Senzel, coupled with continued shrewd front office moves to keep a great bullpen going and good value solid pickup performers like Dietrich and Iglesias, I see a light at the end of this long drawn out period of awfulness.

      • ToBeDetermined

        Thanks my friend.
        Good to have you off the edge.

    • VaRedsFan

      It’s always been a flawed stat. I looked, at a game log of WRC after a game the Reds won one time. Votto was 0-3 with a walk, no RBIs or Runs Scored, and he had a higher wRC for the game than Billy, who went 1-5 with an RBI, Run scored, and stole 2 bases. I just ignore all references to it most of the time.

      Last year, who had a better wRC+…Scooter or Votto?

      Votto 131
      Scooter 125

      That tells you all you need to know about that stat.

      • Steve Mancuso

        It’s close, but in terms of run creation, 66 walks are worth more than 11 home runs and 24 singles. That’s all there is to it.

      • Hanawi

        So Votto made fewer outs and you don’t understand how that is better? I think you’re looking for WAR stats if you want to include stolen bases.

  11. lost11found

    A shout-out to our very own Chad Dotson whose tweet about AG and JV’s footrace made the highlight package on MLB’s Quick Pitch!

  12. Big Ed

    At one point in the bottom of the 4th last night, the Reds threw 12 of 13 pitches for balls. Wandy finally relaxed and got out of it, but it looked bleak for about 10 minutes.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      In the early 1980’s, I personally witnessed Bruce Berenyi throw 15 straight balls (out of the strike zone) in a National League game at Riverfront Stadium.

      • lwblogger2

        Sometimes when you can’t find the strikezone, you just can’t find the strikezone. 15 straight balls… Painful!

  13. bmblue

    Doug, I am offended by Jesse Winker taunting fans in the outfield last night and making gestures towards the mets bench. Will you please tweet about it? Please lead the crusade. This must be addressed. I am offended and I am not sure how I will be able to live another second in this world unless it is addressed. You are the man for the job. Address it! Address it! Address!