The Cincinnati Reds (11-14) are coming off a 12-1 beat down of the first place St. Louis Cardinals (15-10) at Busch Stadium last night. The Reds will try to keep it going this afternoon at 2:15 PM. The Reds pitching staff is now tied for the fewest runs allowed in baseball with the Tampa Rays with 80.

Programming note: today’s game is available on the MLB Network for those outside of the Cincinnati market. 

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Mahle has got hit pretty hard in his last two starts (18 H in 12.0 IP), but he has done a good job limiting the damage. Mahle has only walked 4 batters all year, and his 1.57 BB/9 ranks 5th best in the MLB behind Ryu, Felix Hernandez, Scherzer and Bumgarner (*min 20 IP). Mahle has a career 4.35 ERA in 2 starts against the Cardinals.

Dakota Hudson was the Cardinals first round draft pick from 2016. He has only made 35 career minor league starts. He was the Cardinals #3 prospect entering this season. Things haven’t gone great so far for Hudson. He is currently dead last in the MLB in fWAR at -0.7. He has also allowed 7 home runs in just 18.1 innings. Hudson’s velocity is down nearly 4 MPH from what we saw last year when he was used exclusively as a reliever. The Reds have only faced Hudson once, and it came last year in relief during a Reds win (2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K). However, new Reds’ Puig and Dietrich are a combined 3 for 3 off him.

Starting Lineups

Reds Cardinals
1. Joey Votto (1B)
2. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
3. Jesse Winker (LF)
4. Yasiel Puig (RF)
5. Derek Dietrich (2B)
6. Tucker Barnhart (C)
7. Scott Schebler (CF)
8. Tyler Mahle (P)
9. Jose Peraza (SS)
1. Matt Carpenter (3B)
2. Paul Goldschmidt (1B)
3. Paul DeJong (SS)
4. Marcell Ozuna (LF)
5. Jose Martinez (RF)
6. Yadier Molina (C)
7. Dexter Fowler (CF)
8. Kolten Wong (2B)
9. Dakota Hudson (P)

Senzel update

Nick Senzel is 3 for 12 with 2 walks through his first 3 games with the Bats. He was 1 for 4 yesterday.

Reds defense

There has been a lot of talk about how terrible the Reds defense has been, but the advanced stats surprisingly do not back that up. The Reds as a team have +11 defensive runs saved, which has them tied for 10th best in the MLB. The standouts are Jose Iglesias (+4) and Yasiel Puig (+3). The knocks are Jesse Winker (-3) and Matt Kemp (-2). Scott Schebler is remarkably is at 0, which the Reds have to feel good about.

Conclusion

The Reds are playing good baseball, winners in 10 of their last 16 games. The next four games for the Reds are against beatable starters, but then they’ll face Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard back-to-back in New York. Dakota Hudson has given a lot of bombs, and the Reds are coming off a five home run night yesterday. Let’s hope they can keep it rolling this afternoon. Go Reds!

37 Responses

  1. matthew hendley

    Going for the third series win in a Row.

  2. Mark Lang

    Any victory over the Cardinals feels better than 2 victories over any other team. I needed a cigarette after last nights game… and I don’t smoke.

  3. Old-school

    Tough road trip. Starting 2-0 in St Louis would be huge. Go Reds.

  4. Pete

    The Reds positioning in their shifts might be among the league leaders. Last night’s effort was very impressive. The four outfielder alignment seems to be providing dividends. I haven’t seen any other team use it as often.

  5. Old-school

    Interesting info on reds defense. It’s still early, but Geno Suarez looks back to his 2017 defense. Jose Iglesias is very good. He’s been top 3-5 in MLB defensively several years now- right there with Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford and Francisco Lindor. Jose Peraza is still an important piece and needs to play- but increasingly it’s looking like his ceiling is a utility player and nothing wrong with that. Injuries happen and you need someone with experience to step in if an injury occurs at SS.

    David bell commented this week that there are parallels with Omar Vizquel ( who Bell played with) and Iglesias. Bell made the point elite defensive SS can sometimes develop as hitters mid career ( Cozart did from age 29-31). Iglesias glove at SS should continue at 29.
    Right now- Suarez and Iglesias look really good on the left side.

    • Wayne nabors

      to bad iglasias is not gonna get a chance to show us his new hitting prowess today,should play most every day in my opinion

      • TR

        Iglesias should be a regular. He’s not Barry Larkin at the bat, but he is a real smooth shortstop.

  6. Warren Leeman

    “…winners in 10 of their last 16 games.”

    Votto 101 OPS+ for the season, but .806 OPS in last 12 games.
    Winker 101 OPS+ for the season, but .901 OPS in last 12 games.
    Puig 52 OPS+ for the season, but .793 OPS in last 12 games.

    The Reds are ready to turn the page to May and are gearing up for a serious march to the NLCD lead. Buckle up ladies and gents. This is going to be fun.

  7. Warren Leeman

    “The [defensive] standouts are Jose Iglesias (+4) and Yasiel Puig (+3). The knocks are Jesse Winker (-3) and Matt Kemp (-2). Scott Schebler is remarkably is at 0.”

    I’m thrilled with Suarez’ defensive rebound. He looks like an absolute stud at the hot corner. I was VERY concerned about his defensive regression last season.

    I am not surprised by Schebler’s defensive performance in CF. He’s always been an average defensive CF in the limited opportunities he’s had. Winker has looked better recently in his LF opportunities. If he can become an average LF, that’s a huge bonus, since I believe he can be an .800++ OPS hitter.

    • MK

      Votto is one of the 5 worst defensive first basemen in the National League and I am having trouble thinking of the other four.

      • Phil Gasson

        Maybe he shouldn’t wear his gold glove on defense.

      • Jefferson Green

        You forget that most first basemen are poor fielders. They hit and teams find a place for their bat. If you sort Fangraphs fielding stats for first basement for the last three seasons, Votto is #1 in several categories (UZR, DRS) and top 5 in almost all. No, he often doesn’t look good, but many others look worse according to Fangraphs.

  8. Warren Leeman

    Is DB rewarding Peraza with a start at SS for his big knock yesterday? If so, then I don’t have an issue with Peraza starting over Iglesias at SS today. If DB simply wants to give Peraza playing time at SS, like any other utility player, then I have a big issue with Peraza starting at SS today. Iglesias should be the starting SS…period. This should not be a time-share arrangement. Defense at SS is way too important, much more important than CF defense, and when playing a division rival, Iglesias needs to be a fixture at SS.

    • Wayne nabors

      i think its more that bell refuses to play same lineup 2 days in a row,scored 12 runs last night,if it aint broke dont fix it

    • Jefferson Green

      Bell sets most lineups a full day (or two) in advance and shares them with the players so that they can prepare. Probably not related to last night.

    • Jazzmanbbfan

      Peraza drove in the first run today so whatever the reason is, I’ll take it.

  9. Roger Garrett

    Good at bat by Schebler.Walks are good.

  10. Roger Garrett

    Walks are better when the guys scores.Peraza comes through.

  11. Hanawi

    Mahle needs another pitch. I’m in favor of him going down to work on developing one.

  12. Big Ed

    Ted Barrett has a terrible strike zone.

  13. Seat101

    I had the wrong start time for the game. From what I’ve seen so far, Mahle looks very hittable.

    As an aside The FO did a great job over the off-season.

    Go Reds!

    • Seat101

      Shucks! I would’ve much preferred to of been wrong about Mahle’s
      Hitability.

      There are five of us who have a bet on which red will hit the first grand slam homerun

      Every game we put a dollar into the kitty for our player home we picked at the beginning of the year.

      Votto (son)
      Suárez (brother)
      Winker (friend)
      Puig (friend)
      Peraza (me)

      If your guy comes up to bat with bases-loaded and doesn’t hit a homerun you owe an extra five dollars. So far my guy is the only one in that situation.

      If the first grand slam is hit by scooter or a picture the money will go to the Reds community fund.

  14. Warren Leeman

    Those two runs are on DB! Mahle obviously does not have his best stuff. His control and command of the strike zone leaves a lot to be desired today. The Dirty Birds start the inning with the top of the lineup, the third time thru the lineup. The result, a 5-2 hole.

  15. Warren Leeman

    Really nice AB by Dietrich! Dang the excellent SS defense by the Dirty birds to retire Suarez on the ball headed for CF, but at least Winker scored one run and the Reds get to the bullpen.

  16. Reddawg12

    Good grief. How many times does Zach Duke need to fail before he’s out of chances?

    • Seat101

      One fewer than he had this morning.

  17. Seat101

    This is not fun

    When was the last time a Reds pitcher hit two batters consecutively?

    Just a guess but I’m thinking it was against the pirates or the Giants

  18. Andy

    Human rally killer Zach duke

    He has to have blackmail files on David Bell

  19. Hanawi

    Continuing to run Duke out there is managerial malpractice at this point. I’m hoping he’s just trying to force the front office’s hand.

  20. Warren Leeman

    Duke enters game…HBP…HBP…1RUN SCORES…Runners on 2B & 3B…Duke exits game…

    That’s at least 1 more run on DB.

  21. Warren Leeman

    Suarez continues to flash the leather, bailing the Reds out of the inning and further damage.

  22. Roger Garrett

    Duke was a head scratcher when he was signed and more scratching came when Reed was sent down not to start but to be a reliever.Not sure what the Reds saw when they signed him nor what they see now because he has nothing to get guys out with that Reed doesn’t have that’s better.Maybe it will turn around but I just don’t see it.Reality is Mahle’s velocity is very hittable.He set at 95 early last year and I don’t think he has shown that yet this year and he throws mostly fast balls so in time good hitters do catch up with it.Ozuna should never see a fastball strike.He will chase sliders down and away most of the time.He beat Disco in Mexico and he has done it again today.

    • Warren Leeman

      Mahle just didn’t have the command to keep the ball out of the hitting zone today.

  23. Kettering Reds Fan

    Memo to Chad:

    Possible post topic…….

    Zach Duke….WHY?

    • Warren Leeman

      Sounds like an idea for Wesley’s next topic…

  24. matthew hendley

    Well, I did like most of the batting.

    I think it is obvious and deserving now that when Alex Wood returns, Tyler Mahle is going down. I think the new question is, does the #5 spot in the rotation need to be addressed prior to him returning? An opener perhaps, Mahle has potential that’s for sure, just needs that second and third pitch. DB left him in to long that is true but someone has to pitch those innings….. which leads to….

    WTF…that game was close when DB put duke in, Peralta is rested, WHY was he placed into this game. When in this game he went from unlucky bad, to unemployable bad. I would bet money that he is DFA for Senzels movement to the Majors on whichever homestand that is going to happen on.

    2 of those runs though go to the Stupid shift. Ball gets though the infield when the field is shifted right, who were then scored by Ozuna (one man wrecking crew, right) on his double to Right. A normal field set up, it would be a 4-3 out. The game would be a one run lead and Duke would not have set foot on the mound. QUote numbers, but I have only seen one instance in the last week of the shift actually producing an out. Shift a fielder left or right a bit, that’s cool, but the 8 people on the left side, That has to stop.

    Another Rubber game, with a good (knock on wood) Pitcher coming out tomorrow, Time to win another series.