The Reds offense was dominated for most of the night in San Diego by Padres’ pitching. The Reds at one point had 16 consecutive batters retired and had just three hits entering the 11th inning. It only took one mighty swing off the bat by Derek Dietrich to change the outcome of this game. Dietrich destroyed a 3-1 pitch into the right field seats to give the Reds a 3-1 lead. Zack Duke and Michael Lorenzen finished off another outstanding night of Reds pitching to secure the Reds second consecutive win.

Final R H E
San Diego Padres (11-10) 2 4 2
Cincinnati Reds (7-12) 3 4 3
W: Hughes (2-0) L: Stammen (2-1) S: Lorenzen (1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Derek Dietrich’s 2-run home run with 1 out in the top of the 11th inning, giving the Reds a 3-2 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 36.6% (from 56.1% to 92.7%).

Positives

Anthony DeSclafani had a big bounce-back start: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K. Disco attacked the hitters mostly on the outer-half of the plate, and it worked tonight. It is amazing what the Reds starters continue to do so far in 2019.

How about Derek Dietrich? He now has 5 homers in just 40 at-bats. I have literally no idea how the Reds signed this dude on a minor league contract.

Eugenio Suarez got the Reds started off right with a first inning home run. It was his 4th bomb of the season.

Raisel Iglesias is back! Raisel struck out the side in his only inning of work (the bottom of the 9th), and he looked absolutely nasty in the process.

Yasiel Puig went 1 for 4, but his best swing of the night resulted in a out. Puig hit a ball 388 feet with an exit velocity of 102.2 MPH. The ball had an expected batting average of .700, but resulted in an out on a nice catch by Myers.

Wandy Peralta pitched a perfect 8th inning, striking out 2. Peralta has yet to allow a run in 7.1 inning this season.

Negatives

The Reds only collected 4 hits in 11 innings. This offense overall is just brutal right now. Kemp and Winker were both 0 for 4. Dietrich really saved them.

Not so random thoughts………..

The Reds are now just 4.0 games behind the Brewers (the Pirates are in first place by a game….but they aren’t winning the division). It could be so much worse for the Reds right now in the standings than it is. Dare I say the Reds are back in the mix?

In today’s edition of your eyes can be deceiving: Wil Myers had a terrific over the shoulder catch, robbing Jose Peraza of extra bases. Statcast only had the expected average of that Peraza flyout at .260. Myers is a first-baseman playing centerfield, so it sounds like he made that catch look way more difficult than it was.

Up Next:

Reds at Padres
Saturday, 8:40 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Luis Castillo (1.46 ERA/2.33 FIP) vs Eric Lauer (4.91 ERA/4.51 FIP)

64 Responses

  1. Sliotar

    “Dare I say the Reds are back in the mix?”
    The mix of bad baseball teams, like the Padres? For sure. Anything else….meh.

    Reds entered tonight with 8th highest K rate as hitters, Padres 7th, and it showed.

    As many combined errors as total runs in the game.

    The Reds overcome the Padres being 69% favorites to win after Kinsler’s double, and it took 7 pitchers tonight, (after 6 last night), and another Dietrich HR off the bench to get the victory.

    Only 2 Reds starters now with an OBP over .300, Votto and Suarez.

    A win is always better than a loss, but let’s not confuse this slop with being sustainable to compete in the division over 162 games. Has to be much better.

      • Bobby

        I personally don’t blame someone for being upset with those stats.

        Some people don’t accept mediocrity (or less in the Reds’ case), and expect more. I am the same way, in real life you don’t always get a trophy… even if that concept isn’t “fun” to grasp.

    • Matthew Johnson

      As long as the pitching is at this level the Reds are “in the mix”. No way the offense doesn’t stabilize somewhere near avg’s. If the pithere continue to give the O a chance then more wins will come. Pitching wins in baseball.

    • Reddawg12

      You don’t really seem to enjoy baseball. Lighten up and enjoy the W.

      • Mason Red

        Maybe he enjoys good baseball. Yes it was a win but this isn’t a good baseball team.

    • Old-school

      Go reds.
      Go back a year ago. Suarez injured. Bad pitching. 3-15.
      2 gutty wins in San Diego. Pitching is better . Dietrich winning games and no Phil Gosselin on the bench.

      Let’s win 1 more and take 3/4 in SD and save the season.

      Go reds.

    • TR

      Slop? A description of the Great Game I’ve never heard before. With good pitching and 143 games to go, it’s a little early to count the Reds out of a chance at the playoffs.

      • vegastypo

        I suppose you’re never out of it until the math says you are, but check with me in August and if we’re close then, I could take a postseason push a little more seriously.

        But a win is a win, and I’ll take that anytime.

    • Reaganspad

      7 pitchers…

      That is why I wanted Stephenson to pitch the 8th and possibly the 9th on Thursday. He was dealin

      Instead, we burned Amir and Raisel. We used 5 pitchers in a game we controlled.

  2. Davy13

    I live in Miami, been following the Marlins from their beginning. I knew Dietrich was a real good signing, because he was an impactful player off the bench with timely hitting, playing multi-positions on the field, and plenty of HBPs. Glad DD is a Red!

    • Big Ed

      I think DD is well-suited for about 300 ABs. His defensive limitations start to show when he plays every day, and he is better against RH pitching.

      I sure wasn’t surprised when I checked the box score this morning that it was DD with the homer.

      • vegastypo

        His defensive limitations begin to show as he gets increased playing time, and his defensive limitations in the outfield scream out. I love him for what he brings, though, a booming bat.

  3. jreis

    I Agree Nick, we can make some noise but I think it is time to make a move to get a little more juice into this line up. maybe you bring up Ervin or even Taylor Trammel at least until Scooter is back. 9 of the 12 losses have been close affairs. if we had just a little more offense we could easily be a .500 team right now

    • Colorado Red

      I agree with Phil, not so sure with Taylor yet.
      Taylor MAY need a bit more seasoning.
      No way Votto, Puig, etc does not pick it up

    • ohiojimw

      Phil Ervin is heating up. Nick Senzel is back on the field playing in extended ST games. Got to believe one or both will be with the Reds sooner rather than later. Whether the Reds find 2 roster spots or just one too easy one for their likes will say a lot about how the org really sees the season.

      I believe the team needs a 5 man bench to truly compete; and, Kyle Farmer should to be one of the 5 because of the utility he provides defensively. Most notably, having him keeps Casali from typically being bench bound as the only remaining catcher.

      They really need to take a very long look at the opportunity costs of carrying the 13th pitcher. That’s one spot. If they want 2 then it is time to option Schebler or cut bait on Kemp.

      If Farmer is optioned and that is the only roster spot created, that’s just the same old same old we’ve seen for too long.

  4. Scott Gennett

    The offensive should improve if only Senzel is brought up and inserted as leadoff playing CF, leaving Puig in RF and Kemp/Winker in LF. Once Gennett is back Dietrich should take over LF. Winker should be sent down and Kemp traded or DFA.

    • Jason

      Send Winker down and have Dietrich playing in LF every day? Lol no. Did you see his attempt at a catch two nights ago? I like him a lot as a pinch hitter and backup in the infield but if you think he should be starting over Winker I don’t know what to tell you. Winker has been so much better than his stats look and over the course of the season he will be great.

      • Matt WI

        I agree Jason. And with whoever said above that DD maybe is best suited for 300 AB’s. Worst thing to do is fall in love with short term production and over expose it, especially given his defensive liability.

      • vegastypo

        Send Winker down? Seriously? I wonder if the ‘book’ on Winker right now is to pitch him away, and if he keeps going to the opposite field, I can begin to dream of how good he can be with the ability to pull the ball and go the other way when the pitching merits.

        And you don’t want him even on the 25-man roster? I’m thinking it’s about time he plays every day and let him get more used to facing lefties. Let Puig play a day or two if need be, but geez, free Jesse !!

      • matt hendley

        Agreed, Sending Winker down is an idea of ridicule, Detrich should get playing time that is correct, however, I think calling him an outfielder is a bit…..much

    • Doc

      On what basis is Senzel the saviour? Forty four games in AAA about nine months ago? Hasn’t faced live pitching in meaningful games in that long and it is assumed he will step right in and carry a team comprised of players who have performed at the major league level? Had a chance to win the CF job in ST and was out-performed offensively by both Schebler and Ervin. Let the kid get some games under his belt in Louisville before burdening him with carrying this team on his back.

      • greenmtred

        Desperate people are desperate to find saviors. Senzel is very highly-regarded hitting prospect, but even if he joins the team and lives up to expectations, it will take much more from other guys to make the Reds competitive, I think.

  5. Reddawg12

    Great win! I have no problem staying up until 1am to watch an extra innings victory. Really need to get at least 1 more in San Diego.

    In other news, the Reds team BABIP is .217. Dead last in all of baseball and it’s not even close. That can’t possibly continue over the course of a whole season. Even the unluckiest of teams usually end up with a BABIP in the .280 range. It’s just a matter of time before the bats heat up. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.

    • Big Ed

      They were about 2-for-29 last night on balls in play. They were 2-for-21 on Thursday night. 4-for-50 is hard to do.

      Part of it, though, is that many hitters are in legitimate slumps; they don’t get the good part of the bat on the ball, so they shouldn’t expect much “luck.”

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Agreed. I don’t have the exit velocity stats in front of me, but the eye test indicates a lot of outs on weak grounders and lazy fly balls.

  6. Brian

    Derek Dietrich exemplifies why I’m not a big believer in wins above replacement as a stat. I think it’s an ok stat, but definitely not one that should be relied on nearly as heavily as it is. Case in point, Dietrich probably has a .4 or .5 WAR right now. But in real life, his WAR would be three. As in, we have now won three games that we wouldn’t have had a replacement player been in there for him. Baseball games are whole entities. You shouldn’t get credit for a .2 for a couple homers in a 14-6 loss. And if you have an Iglesias 9th inning against LA, that should get you -1, in that, he lost the team a game they would have won without him. Love the guy, just using his outing to illustrate my point

    • Mason Red

      I agree with your comments. Stats like WAR are sometimes deceiving IMO. Some players just have a knack for delivering in key situations even though their overall stats aren’t that great. Personally I think baseball has become over saturated with stats especially at the FO level when trying to predict the value of young players. I think they still should be watched playing the game instead of analyzing the plethora of stats.

    • Steve Mancuso

      You can give out 1 WAR per game total. Dietrich gets some, but so do the players that got the Reds to the 1:1 tie in the first place, like Anthony DeSclafani for 6 innings of pitching, Eugenio Suarez for his home run, etc. In real life, without those contributions, Dietrich doesn’t get to hit that ball in extras. Individual players don’t win or lose a game. They may be responsible for the final winning or losing run, but that’s not what WAR measures.

      • Mason Red

        Without the HR what happened before hand wouldn’t have mattered. A debate like this is akin to which came first,the chicken or the egg. Which is appropriate considering it’s Easter weekend.

      • Steve Mancuso

        You misunderstood my point. I wasn’t saying that only the HR and SP before should get credit. I was saying that all the components of the win should get credit. I wasn’t choosing the chicken OR the egg, I was saying both deserve credit. Just like Michael Lorenzen gets credit for recording the last out. You divide up the 1 WAR among all those contributions. Dietrich gets his share, so do the others. Not a choice, like you suggest in your chicken-egg analogy.

        It’s definitely interesting to see which players contribute game-winning performances. Dietrich has contributed a lot there. But that’s not what WAR does as a statistic.

      • Nick Kirby

        Dietrich also leads all Reds hitters in WAR at the moment…..

      • Old-school

        That’s actually a very helpful dialogue. I like the Win probability graph in the post game summary as well and perhaps WPA might be that metric that tries to be identify those players who stood out at crunch time. Dietrich had a big 3 run Homer on opening day as well.

        Everyone can agree Dietrich has been a valuable contributor of a deeper bench.

    • Amarillo

      You are looking for WPA or Win Probability Added which was listed in this article and is basically a “clutch” stat. It calculates the likelihood a specific game is won by a player’s actions. Dietrich leads the team with .5. Schebler is at -1.0. For reference the MLB leader right now is Yelich at 1.8.

      WPA isn’t a measure of skill. Luis Castillo for example has a WPA of -.2 because he hasn’t made a lot of specific plays that would turn a lost game into a win, which you can blame on run support.

  7. matt hendley

    Another saved by the Detrich, GOod pitching all around….except for Duke. Tonights game at a little bit more manageable time.

    • Big Ed

      Duke faced three hitters and walked one. Tatis got 2 SBs off him, but his run wasn’t that important. Lorenzen retired one of the two hitters he faced.

      I will concede he isn’t Trevor Hoffman, but I can get too down on Duke for that job.

      • matt hendley

        I suppose he did alright, I just didn’t like how Tatis just stole 3rd without a pitch. Plus one of his outs was against that bum Eric Hosmer

      • Jason

        @Matt Hendley He stole third without a pitch because the defense was shifted and there was no one covering third. That literally had nothing to do with Duke. I was nervous since I don’t think he has been great but I think he did pretty well

      • vegastypo

        They gave Tatis a “stolen base” for taking third?? Whatever happened to defensive indifference? Not only did the Reds not make an attempt to hold at second, they didn’t have a player anywhere near third base. How is that a stolen base?

    • Klugo

      And his body language was just awful. Didn’t look like he wanted to be there. Something doesn’t seem right with that dude.

  8. Big Ed

    Tom Mitsoff got us two straight wins with his game-thread write-ups, and we revert to Kiss-of-Death Kirby for the Recap?

    • Reaganspad

      Troubling… More so than our hitting right now.

      Who is coaching this board? Why would you go to a reliever in that situation?

      Feels like Thursday night when they pulled Stephenson after the 7th

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Never fear, Tom has the preview for tonight, as well!

  9. Steven Ross

    Thankfully, something we haven’t said in a long time is saving this team: outstanding pitching! Never thought I’d say that. The offense is brutal. Except for Peraza’s blast for an out, most are K’s or rather routine. At some point we have to start hitting…right?

  10. matt hendley

    I find it funny that despite the 80-year contract to a substandard FIrst baseman the Padres were being lauded as the model for a successful rebuild 2 days ago. Reds win 2 straight and that is not due to a sudden hitting explosion. Have an opportunity for a series win tonight and salvaging of the road trip. (Mexico was TECHNICALLY, a set of home games).

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Matt, you’ll need to share what has you so down on Hosmer. It is a clear theme the past couple of days. 🙂

      • matt hendley

        Actually, I started it as a Joke when Eric Hosmer would oblige I Ran with it. My feeling on the contract is that it is somewhat suspect but….. every edge to win so I run with the joke.

    • CincyBorn23

      Agreed. Their starting pitching is legit. And if they don’t have a chance at winning the division, the Reds probably don’t either.

  11. Old-school

    The Reds have a 2 game win streak, on the road, on the left coast, and against a team with a winning record not from Miami. They have a chance to win a series, to salvage a road trip, to salvage a season and get to 4 under, when it looked like they were headed to 8 or 9 under .500.
    Luis Castillo on the bump. It’s time for all of RLN to come together and for 1 day, root this team on, stay positive and get the W and win a road series. Go Reds.

    • Colorado Red

      GO Reds.
      Will watch them in July at Coors.
      Hopefully a chance to harass a friend of mine.

  12. ChrisInVenice

    This is a good team that is hitting poorly.

    Defensive deficiencies withstanding, this roster is so much better than in past years with Gennett, Senzel, Ervin in the wings.

    This team will get hot offensively soon.

  13. Roger Garrett

    Agree 100% Old-school but I have never ever saw a whole team look so bad at the plate at the same time.Its hard to imagine winning these last two games by having a total of 9 hits but it does point out when you hit homers you win more then you lose.Five of the nine hits have left the yard and well that’s what we need to do especially when we play at home.Hats off to absolutely great starting pitching so far this year even without Wood.Lets get started early tonight and put up some runs and let Castillo do what he does.Go Reds.

    • Amarillo

      I’m convinced there has just been a lot of bad luck. The only player on the team who isn’t hitting significantly worse than last year is Barnhart. I don’t believe that 11 guys all just suddenly became much much worse at baseball than 6 months ago.

    • lost11found

      Relying on the HR ball is a trait that’s been tagged onto the Dodgers during Ward’s tenure (rightly or wrongly).

      If that was his philosophy and he’s trying to duplicate it here, it all comes down to if our team are natural HR hitters. If not, the philosophy probably fails in spectacularly.

  14. Matt WI

    Random thoughts: 1) Tatis Jr. is fun to watch. Hope that’s what Senzel can bring. 2) The pitching box score from last night is beautiful.

  15. WVRedlegs

    Getting Turner Ward as the hitting coach was a coup. He has the offense humming along on all 2 cylinders. The Turner Ward offense, the last Yugo standing. Or maybe it is a Ford Pinto offense. It might get you to where you are going, or it might burst into flames.

  16. KDJ

    If you are going to be competitive, you need to win some games even when some things are not working. This game was an example of that. Go Reds.

    • ohiojimw

      Yes. Jus find a way to win. No win is a bad win.

      Is the formula from the last 2 days sustainable? Almost certainly not; but, the wins buy time to work on getting things figured out. I believe the question for many is whether waiting for the current cast to come around is worthwhile or whether instead the mix needs to be changed.

      But whichever, just try and find a way to win the game being played today then do the same tomorrow and the next day and ……

  17. Steve Mancuso

    If you’re interested in the discussion above in the comments of how the win probability score is assigned for each game, you might find this FanGraphs page useful:

    https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

    Here are a few of the assigned total WPA from last night, remember this includes all their plate appearances:
    Dietrich: .311
    Suarez: .030
    Kemp: -.134
    Disco: .218
    Hughes: .128
    Iglesias: .128

    I don’t know all the ins-and-outs of how this works. I know for every plus assigned, a minus has to be assigned to the other team, so it adds up to zero.

  18. WVRedlegs

    Well doggies the lineup tonight with Castillo going is just absurd. Guys got to play but this is ridiculous with the top arm going. It is more of a Sunday get out of town lineup. No Votto again.