Tyler Mahle struggled early and the Reds trailed 4-0 after two innings. That would be more than enough for Kenta Madeda and the Dodgers as the Reds offense could never get anything going tonight. The Reds have now lost 3 straight games immediately following their four game win streak.

Final R H E
Los Angeles Dodgers (11-8) 6 13 0
Cincinnati Reds (5-11) 1 4 0
W: Maeda (3-1) L: Mahle (0-1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Tyler Mahle allowing a 2-run home run to Joc Pederson with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, giving the Dodgers a 3-0 lead. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 16.5% (from 34.3% to 17.8%).

Positives

Derek Dietrich drew two walks tonight. He only had one walk through his first 34 PA of the season. He also had a 10 pitch AB in the 9th inning.

Jared Hughes pitched a perfect inning, striking out 2 batters. He entered tonight with an 8.10 ERA, so that was good to see.

Negatives

Tyler Mahle gave up a career high 11 hits. He was not fooling anyone early and consistently fell behind in the count. Mahle did settle down and got through 6 innings. He impressively did not walk anyone all night despite some command issues.

Jose Peraza continues to look lost at the plate. He went 0-4 and is now hitting .154/.170/.231. Peraza entered today seeing 3.22 pitches per PA, which is the 3rd worst in the MLB. I don’t want to give up on Peraza because he had a really poor start last year, but if he doesn’t start turning it around the Reds might need to bench him vs RHP in favor of Iglesias at SS and Dietrich at 2B.

Zach Duke struggled again as he allowed 2 runs. Duke continues to fall behind in the count and is getting burned because of it.

Not so random thoughts……

I have been a big fan of David Bell and his analytic approach this season, but there was one move tonight that I thought was absolutely bizarre. The Reds had the bases loaded in the top of the 4th inning with two outs and Mahle due up. Bell has been known for his quick hook early, but for some reason he allowed Mahle to hit for himself. That would end up being the Reds only real chance to get back in the game.

Up next:

Reds at Dodgers
Wednesday, 3:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Sonny Gray (2.03 ERA/2.32 FIP) vs Walker Buehler (8.25 ERA/4.22 FIP)

41 Responses

  1. jreis

    man, this season has 1982 written all over it. that year we only won 61 games but I remember a lot of the games being fairly competitive. we had decent starting pitching with Soto, Berenyi, Pastore and an aging Seaver that kept us in the game but we never had enough offense to get us over the hump. a lot of 4-3, 3-1 scores.

    you had some aging stars too like Bench ,Dreisen and Concepcion. Bench really showed his age that year. you can draw some comparisons to Kemp and Votto.

    • Ghettotrout1

      I had real hope for this season but I now realize this team just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to be good Kemp is garbage and Votto has zero power. I hope they make the playoffs at some point before I die.

  2. Sliotar

    Bell can’t have a quick hook with the starter every night.

    The bullpen gets fried, even if it’s good, which the Reds bullpen wasn’t compared to other teams’ to start and isn’t scaring anyone now. Too little swing-and-miss from everyone except Stephenson.

    The starting outfield of Winker, Puig and Kemp now have averages of .191 / .176 /.200. There are others just as bad or worse (Hi, Peraza).

    10% of the season is in the books. This team better gets it’s act together over the next 10%, or they will already be out of it before the Kentucky Derby is run.

    • ohiojimw

      Senzel is playing CF and batting in games in Arizona. Not sure if they are just “in camp” games among Reds or involve “real games” versus other orgs. Hopefully he will be at AAA soon and then…….

      • Reaganspad

        The problem is that Senzel needs to come up and play 4 positions…

        the game turned before the home run. 2 plays at second base that DD 1) could not get to and 2) could not make led to the 4-0 deficit. DD and Scooter are not known for their defense, but Phillips makes both of those plays.

        Those plays extended the pitches that Mahle had to throw in the first 2 innings and I think caused his nibbling. Confidence in the gloves behind you is a big dang deal for a pitcher.

        I think that Senzel needs to be brought up to play 2nd base. We have a lot of holes, fix the most important one now.

        There was not a ball hit to CF that was a difference maker and Winker performed well. Not saying that he is Trammell or Siri out there, but last night’s game was lost at 2nd base

      • greenmtred

        Didn’t see the game , but your summary (lost at second base) seems plausible. The thing is, a game could be lost in center or any other position. The Reds seem to have de-emphasized defense and only have a superlative fielder when Iglesias is playing short. That might be a sound strategy, but it’s still true that a run given away counts as much as a run scored and, right now, the Reds aren’t scoring anyway.

    • da bear

      Only two teams began season 1-8 and made playoffs, including 1995 Reds. Season was lost within first 6% of season. Best to use this season preparing for next season. Bring up the value of Scooter once healthy then trade him. Hope Kemp catches fire then trade him. Votto can’t be moved, just live with his bloated remaining five years and hope for the best. Tell him to communicate with his pitchers and stop creating balks. Work Senzel in ASAP once healthy, and prep Stevenson and possibly Garrett despite his preferences for starting next year. Get Reed and Romano up to see if they can be bullpen pieces. Tell Peraza to walk at least 10 times in his next 60 ABs or he becomes a utility player.

      2019 is lost. 2020 depends upon what is done now.

  3. ToBeDetermined

    A couple more bad appearances by Duke and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get cut.

    I know, that won’t solve the hitting problem but sometimes you got to start somewhere.

    • CincyBorn23

      Signing Zach Duke was probably the worst move of the offseason.

  4. Scott Gennett

    We’re getting closer to the point that FO either starts to make some roster/coaches moves or they give the season up. The OF offensive has been a bust, Senzel and Ervin should be brought up as soon as possible to replace Kemp and Schebler, assuming that Winker and Puig will get better. Until Gennett recovers, Iglesias and Dietrich should man the IF. The problem is neither Iglesias nor Peraza represent any offensive threat, maybe they should think about deploying Senzel at 3B, Gennett at 2B and move Suarez back to SS. Lastly, Duke has no business in the majors anymore.

  5. Reddawg12

    Man, after all the offseason moves and excitement, all the build-up and anticipation, it seems as if it’s just another typical, last place season rounding into form for the Reds. So disappointing.

    • Mason Red

      Well the new phrase being tossed around is “bridge season”. Success is just down the road. Continue to be patient. More prospects will come when the players traded for in the offseason are unloaded. The magical season is now 2020.

  6. matt hendley

    The Reds had a chance to win Monday. They had no chance yesterday. Peraza is hot Garbage, worst player on the team. Finally some improvement from Kemp 6 hits in his last 9 AB. Votto with a double. Pitching is a problem. I got that Mahle had a bad day, but some of the bullpen pieces need a quick change.
    David Bell is not engendering any support. This early in the season, his bullpen, (which is one man heavy), is suffering from burnout he can always call AAA for reinforcements. Should of bat for mahle in the 4th. A hit would have made the game competitive. Just waives the white flag early instead.

  7. Roger Garrett

    No hitting means we lose and I always felt we weren’t as good on offense.Scooter and Senzel make a big difference when they arrive but for now Dietrich must play every day,Irvin needs called up and he plays and Casali needs at least 50% of the time behind the plate.Peraza,Tucker and Schebler aren’t doing anything offensively and we need to be able to score.Starting pitching numbers say we are pretty good but unless this offense move in to a top 5 spot in runs scored its 2020 as Red said.

  8. Old-school

    Bell may have left Mahle in for his personal development as a pitcher. The Reds were never in the game. Many criticized Price for managing for his job instead of managing for the development of the young core.

    The offense is bad. It will come around some in June at gabp- but the season is teetering on being over already. A sweep in LA and losing 3/4 in San Diego would accomplish that. Can’t get 10 under or it’s over.

    Once that happens, Bell has to manage for 2020 with personnel. That starts with Nick Senzel in CF and Jesse Winker in LF every day when Senzel is ready.

    • matt hendley

      Oh here comes the development excuse answer. First, as the nature of time itself, your not out of a game in the 4th inning unless its a 20 run lead or something like that. secondly, you are definitely not out of it when a player at bat constitutes the winning run at the time. A home run would have given the Reds the lead. A single would have had them behind by one. Price for all his faults was trying to win games. That is the goal here, to win games. The Reds did not go out and pick up these players to ‘develop’ other individuals. David Bell would be behoven to remembering the goal here. Writing of 2019 in the middle of April is also a mistake. Real players will understand that they are in a sink or swim environment and learn how to swim. If not, Triple A awaits. Senzel should get regular at bats when he arrives, but he better prove the Hype.

      • old-school

        “The Reds had a chance to win Monday. They had no chance yesterday”.
        Which one is it?

        NIck has the Fangraph’s win probability for the game. The Reds had a 17% chance to win after Pederson’s home run in the second inning. I thought Mahle was done and Bell should have pinch hit for him. Perhaps they wanted Mahle to grind through a few more innings and learn how to pitch with some adversity. Perhaps they wanted to save the bullpen, with a day game today and then 4 more in San Diego. A burned out bullpen half way through a 9 game West Coast road trip is a bad thing. Ask Aaron Harang what can go wrong in San Diego when there’s no pitchers left.

      • matt hendley

        On Monday, Literally Not a pitch was thrown where the reds were losing, the loss coming on a walk off. That kind of game, where the reds battle, take the lead late. reflects the type of reds that should be expected. Regardless of the outcome of that particular game. Yesterday, you blinked and we were down a 4 spot. Votto comes through with a clutch hit, attempting to chisel away. But a position player cannot get a clutch pinch-hit if they dont get to the plate. That game was done when DB did not pinch hit for Mahle in the 4th. I got the arguments about the bullpen, but there are players in the minors that can do some bullpen emergency work. Duke might be due up a phantom IL trip soon, etc. It starts with leadership and tough decisions. Neither which were in abundance yesterday.

  9. old-school

    Peraza is taking a lot of heat and rightfully so. 52 PA with 2 xtra base-hits 14 k and 0 walks and lots of soft contact. But, he needs to play every day. Gennett is hurt and not coming back anytime soon. It is crucial to pin down the role of Peraza in 2020 +. He had a strong year of development in 2018. He turns 25 in 2 weeks. Is he a starting middle infielder on the next good Reds team? Or, is he a utility infielder? Until last year, I thought his ceiling was a utility infielder. The Reds have 20 games in 20 days after this West Coast trip. Put him in the 6 hole and middle IF every day with lots of SS. If he’s not appreciably better in late May with 50 games and 200+ at bats under his belt, then its time to move to plan B for the starting middle infield in 2020.

    • matt hendley

      Peraza has options. (doesn’t he), play him every day, In Louisville. When Senzel is ready, which looks to be no more than 2 weeks, send Peraza down. Deitrich and Farmer split 2B. Farmer can also play the IF positions, and Suarez can spot start SS if Iglesisias needs a day off. I am not averse to the idea of a final look, (even if you know it will never happen) but late may is too long to have an underperforming bat in the lineup

  10. WVRedlegs

    Silent bats again. The theme of 2019. The Pedro Cerano effect. Bats are afraid.
    The problem is the hitting coach. Turner Ward is a bust. Where art Don Long? We need you back.
    Fire Turner Ward while in LA would be very fitting.
    Fire Turner Ward !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Mike Adams

      You are right! Let’s dump Bell while we are at it.

      Duke, Kemp and Peraza are out of here too.

      Pitching coach should go due to bullpen but since the starters are doing better we will keep him with a caveat: perfection every appearance but with continual improvement thereafter for all pitchers.

      FO and owners have to go too since the Reds haven’t won all their games this year.

      Fans’ attendance has been way too low so they have to suffer also, say let’s double concession and ticket prices.

      Stadium staff probably bloated for the attendance so lay half of them off.

      Cut all those injured guys, they are just laying around wasting roster space and healing oh, so slowly.

      Oh, yeah throw in Thom! Brennaman from the broadcast team.

      Have I left anyone out?

  11. MARK MOORE

    No bats always equals no chance to win.

  12. FreeHouse

    Kevin Gregg, Jason Marquis, Ross Ohlendorf, Gallardo and Duke all sound the same or bring the same just a different season. Don’t tell me Duke is better than Reed or Big Sally. Cut Duke don’t matter if it’s a high or low leverage situation he’s still going to stink.

    • matt hendley

      I am remembering now why we let him walk the first time.

    • wizeman

      Romano getting lit up in Louisville.

  13. Wayne nabors

    I know I keep beating the same ol drum,but this offense was doomed when the fo decided to send their best pure hitter down,who promptly got hurt.I just hope all who thought annointing schebler the centerfielder are happy now

    • matthew hendley

      That may have had some validity if he had not gotten hurt, needless to say there would be egg on everyone’s face if he was on the MLB IL gaining service time, losing a year and still getting no production. If it was a freak injury, (a singular injury) then the argument could be made as it was unseeable, but there is China in a Bull shop (or something like that, lol) that is less fragile then him. Once he is healthy it will be interesting what the FO does with him.

      • Wayne nabors

        How many times and I’m gonna have to tell you Matt,he got hurt when he WAS SENT DOWN, do you really think he has same exact injury if he stays with club?if the answer is yes ,then you go man

    • Mason Red

      Even if he is their best pure hitter he couldn’t have saved this mess. Eventually this team will hit but they will be completely and totally out of it by then. But that means those hitting well who are a part of “the bride” and not part of the future will be traded. Such is life with this franchise.

  14. No it’s not me

    Bingo ,if your in last place in spring training your not ready for season.Ward ,Johnson their not bad coaches but I would be an outstanding batting coach in LA right now.The 4 or 5 wins in the spring we’re produced with Irvan ,Siri and mostly minors. Who woulda figured these results?Hell, everyone is giddy over Puig ,he’s a great personality ,but if your rung up ,or swing and miss get off the field in a hurry,it’s an embarrassing slow slink back to dugout.

  15. WVRedlegs

    Add the 2019 season to the 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 season as being over by the end of April and the remaining 5 months allegedly supposed to be for “developmental purposes”. Five years running now. Aaahhhh, Reds baseball.
    What happened to all that over-the-top optimism from all the way back to March 28? Where is the offensive juggernaut so many were proclaiming the Reds had?
    They had the Opening Day parade on March 28. On April 17 we are ready for the Funeral Parade for the 2019 season.
    I believe David Bell is going to give Tony Perez a run for the record for a first time Reds manager to get fired before 44 games are complete. Perez was 20-24 in 1993 for a .455 winning percentage. Bell stands at 5-11, a .313 winning percentage. Or more appropriately, Bell has a healthy .687 losing percentage.
    David Bell and his .687 losing percentage brought to you by Dick Williams, Nick Krall and Bob Castellini. Thank you boys. What a Cluster-F these 3 have made of the Reds organization.
    At the conclusion of this disastrous road trip, seats should be starting to get warm for the POBO, GM and Manager.

    • Alex

      I mean, we think the reds FO has been unsuccessful but I don’t think big Bob feels that way. If it’s about putting a good product on the field,
      they are horrible failures in every way, but the aim is money. The team stopped paying Homer and will get way cheaper next year when like 65 millions comes off the books. Picked up some buzz with Puig. Steve outlined how they made 37 million last year despite 95 losses. Again guys, this has nothing to do with winning, it’s about making money and by that measure, big Bob would say they have been successful.

      I think fans have to realize that winning and making lots of money are not exclusive to one another. The reds will make a profit this year and the value of the team will continue to rise because of all the cost saving measures they are implementing.

      They’ll pay lip service to some big free agent signing next off-season, sign middling guys and suck again, but will make lots of money again. Rinse and repeat.

  16. Big Ed

    When playing teams other than the Marlins, the Reds are 2-11. Even having played the Marlins, they have the 28th best record in baseball.

    Puig, though energetic, has been a dud, with a .561 OPS. Puig, Peraza, Winker and Kemp are all at or below the Mendoza Line. Winker has shown some power, but all his homers have been in the front row of a short left-field porch. Suarez is the only Reds regular who is doing his job offensively. Dietrich, I suppose, but even he has only a .316 OBP.

    The Reds are painfully slow, dull and unathletic; they are last in the NL in stolen bases, but first in caught stealing. Iglesias is great defensively; Barnhart is acceptable, and every single other player is below average. They are 28th in MLB in batting average, and 29th in BB drawn. They are T26th in runs scored, and would be 29th but for facing Wei-Yin Chin when he took one for the team and gave up 10 runs.

    The Reds are at least 5 years into a rebuild, and yesterday they started a 35-year-old and a 34-year-old, and their two relievers were 33-year-old Hughes and Zach Duke, who turns 36 on Friday. Nobody under 25 starts, or won’t once Jose Peraza turns 25 in 2 weeks. Joey Votto is a shadow of his MVP self; he had a OPS last year against lefties that was lower than Peraza’s. His strikeout rate is soaring. He doesn’t consistently hit the ball with authority anymore; as a result, teams will continue to pound the strike zone on him, and his vaunted on-base ability will diminish. Pitchers do not fear his bat any more.

    What price Nick Senzel?

    Other than Senzel, there is little offensively in the minors that could help the Reds this year. Trammell looks like the real deal, and is off to a great start in AA, but we can count on the Reds to hold him back in AAA next year, to make the Nashville Reds better in . . . wait for it . . . 2026.

    But we’ll watch them anyway. It’s our lot in life.

    • matthew hendley

      Puig will improve. He also shows an emotional ‘want’ to win that the others seem to lack. Senzel is roughly 2 weeks away. Votto is just having a slow start. Kemp is showing minor signs of life. The only issue player is Peraza but the reds seem to have no interest in addressing his inability to play at the highest level. There will be an improvement. If the reds are giving up, the Cubs and Red Soxs should too, and obviously that isn’t happening

      • Big Ed

        Votto had a .781 OPS post-All Star last year. (Granted, Ryan Madson can take some credit for that.) He is at .735 so far this year. Against lefties last year, it was .758. Yeah, he’s off to a slow start, but isn’t it reasonable to wonder if that is the new normal for him?

        I don’t get the roster fit for Kemp at all. Never did. Any AB he gets is better used on a much younger player. Can’t run, can’t field, can’t hit. Doesn’t want to be here. DFA him. Somebody may pick him up and pay him $500k for the rest of the year. That will be a victory for the Reds.

  17. BigRedMike

    No hitting makes it painful. 2-11 against non Marlins teams.
    Schebler is a 4th or 5th OF at best, yet, the Reds seemed to think he is a starter.
    Peraza regressing right now, which will happen with no ability to walk.
    Journeymen playing significant roles, Dietrich and Iglesias.
    Votto likely slowing down
    Kemp getting significant amount of AB’s

    The Dodgers would not take Kemp or Puig back if MLB allowed 2 extra roster spots and the Reds paid the salary.

    Bullpen is just not well constructed. Building a bullpen is a challenge though due to the variance in results for relievers season to season.

  18. Joey

    73-89… Craig Counsel’s first full season as a coach. When he took over the year before he also had a losing season. There are differences but also a lot of similarities between Bell, Counsell, the Reds and the Brewers. Let’s be a little patient here.