Anthony DeSclafani pitched five terrific innings, but his 2019 debut was spoiled on a three-run home run by Orlando Arcia off Michael Lorenzen in the sixth inning. The Reds got the tying run in scoring position in the bottom of the sixth and cut the deficit to one on a Eugenio Suarez solo home run in the eight, but could never get over the hump. The Reds fall to 1-3 on the season, matching their same start through four games last season. The Reds are already 3.0 games behind the first place Brewers.

Final R H E
Milwaukee Brewers (5-1) 4 7 0
Cincinnati Reds (1-3) 3 4 0
W: Chacin (1-0) L: Duke (0-1) S: Hader (4)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Michael Lorenzen allowing a 3-run home run to Orlando Arcia with 2 outs in the 6th inning, giving the Brewers a 4-1 lead. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 33.4% (from 48.7% to 15.3%).

Positives

Anthony DeSclafani pitched really well in his 2019 debut: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 8 K, 1.54 FIP. Bell pulled him after 89 pitches. If the Reds can get 2016 retro Disco back, this rotation starts looking a lot better.

Eugenio Suarez drove in his first run of the season with a double in the 4th inning and topped that with a solo home run in the 8th inning. He was 1 for 10 through the first 3 games, so that had to feel good.

Joey Votto had a pair of walks, scoring both times. Votto’s OBP is a mere .412.

Yasiel Puig had two hits. One of those hits had an exit velocity of 65.0 MPH and an expected batting average of .060, but I am sure he will take it.

Robert Stephenson pitched two scoreless innings in relief. He gave up some hard contact that he was fortunate were outs in the first inning, but had two nasty strikeouts in his second inning of relief.

Negatives

Michael Lorenzen made a big mistake to the Brewers #8 hitter, Orlando Arcia that cost the Reds the ball game tonight. He had looked pretty sharp in his season debut on Sunday, but tonight was one he’d assume to forget.

Jesse Winker got the start tonight and went 0 for 4. He is now 0 for 9 on the season. Matt Kemp struck out in a pinch-hit appearance tonight and is now 0 for 8. For all the debate of who should start in left, neither is off to a good start.

Not so random thoughts…….

David Bell has certainly showed early in his managerial career that he is going to the bullpen early and often. Bell did not let his starter finish the 6th inning for the fourth straight game to start 2019. This explains the eight man bullpen. It seems at least early on that the Reds are not going to allow their average starting rotation to face hitters a third and fourth time through the order. The numbers back this up as the correct move. Bell will certainly face plenty of criticism for this, but this exact handling of a rotation won the Brewers the NL Central in 2018.

The big second guessing tonight came in the 6th inning. Bell pulled DeSclafani for a pinch-hitter in a 1-1 game in the bottom of the 5th. Disco had 89 pitches, so at best he had one inning (is that worth not using a pinch hitter in a tie game…no). Bell brought in Michael Lorenzen with runners on 2nd & 3rd with 2 outs and Orlando Arcia up with the pitchers spot up next. Bell elected to have Lorenzen pitch to Arcia instead of forcing Craig Counsell to take out his pitcher who was cruising. The move backfired with Lorenzen giving up a 3-run bomb to Arcia and that allowed Chacin to say in the game. I still believe this was the correct move all around by Bell. Arcia hit .233/.265/.305 in 280 PA last year vs RHP and Ryan Braun was in the on-deck circle. You just tip your cap and move on. And as far as not forcing the Brewers to take out Chacin, he loaded the bases in the bottom of the 6th after 2 walks and had to be pulled.

Up Next:

Reds vs Brewers
Wednesday, 12:30 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Luis Castillo (1.59 ERA/1.71 FIP) vs Freddy Peralta (12.00 ERA/9.27 FIP)

70 Responses

  1. Alex

    The 8,000 attendance figures say that Reds game will not have much patience for a lifeless team. It’s never early when you’re in last.

    • TomN

      Who wants to freeze at a game when they can sit in a warm home and watch it on TV? What would the Brewers attendance be if they didn’t have a roof?

      Disco was very good tonight and Roark recovered after a very nervous 1st inning. Get Gray over his shabby start and if we ever start hitting the ball, we can be a good team.

      But I agree in some ways, Kemp looks old to me. (He is old but he just doesn’t look like he’s got much in the tank. I wish we could have found someone to trade him to (to eat at least part of his contract), so we could have started Senzel or at least Ervin.

      • Jay

        This is also true, but it was not nearly as cold as it was Sunday. 8,000 is just a really poor number at any time of the as season.

      • Jay

        And I agree. If Gray is on his game and we have at least 4 legitimate starters, this may turn into a strength. I doubt the bats will stay this anemic.

        They’ll give Kemp a little more time with that kind of money. If this continues later into the month though, you may see some moves being made.

      • Mason Red

        What makes you think people are watching them at home? And things will warm up when the fire sale begins. That was the plan anyway.

      • Andy

        I’m gonna just point out that Brewers attendance would likely be pretty similar. This is the land of the frozen tundra of Green Bay where the house is packed for temps well below freezing. Wisconsin sports fans be crazy.

    • Jay

      Might be part of the problem though, not having fans come out for the first 4 games when its really anyone’s season. On opening day the crowd was electric and the Reds fed off that energy. It’s a vicious cycle I guess, but if we can’t support even 15k fans showing up to a divisional game 6 days into a new season what should we really expect from this team? Nah, let’s just have 8,000 fans bellowing Ric Flair “whoos” all throughout. The team doesn’t deserve any better, right?

      • Indy Red Man

        The Marlins won 2 WS and nobody ever showed up. I don’t buy that. Of course it helps to have big crowds, but the team has been bad for many years and its cold. Indy built a dome for the Colts. Milw built a dome for the Brewers. Houston has one so their fans don’t have to sit and melt during a game. It is what it is? Give them a reason to come.

      • Eric Wormus

        Correct, the team does not deserve any better.

    • Indy Red Man

      The fact that the Reds are also 8,000-1 to win the division hurts a little too.

      • Jay

        This is pathetic though. I know its slowly turning into an MLS town, but come on Reds have been a fixture alot longer than the Marlins who’ve never had a fanbase btw. This is weak even if the temps were in the 40s tonight.

  2. matt hendley

    Your argument carries some…. weight, however, the wrong PH was used, and I would have placed someone else in instead of Lorenzen. Are the reds Walking more? compared to Last season.

    • m

      also you forgot the Free Pizza everyone got lol

    • Rotoboto

      Through four games in 2018 they walked 13 times. In four games in 2019 they have walked 14 times.

  3. Jay

    Well fiddlesticks! That’s two winnable games in a row. The Reds offense looks lethargic through first 4 games and better get going quick. 11 out of the first 14 games are against central division opponents. They could get buried in the NL central before mid April unless the bats catch up. On a positive note it was good to see Suarez and Puig break out of their funks tonight. Not going to overanalyze it. Just hoping it’s a slow start. It figures that they got Hader on back to back nights which I’m sure if you’re a Reds hitter you gotta be asking what gives. Let’s hope he is unavailable tomorrow. So far the Reds pitching has kept them in every game. DB is using up a lot of pitchers in the process though. We don’t have a good track record with a tired bullpen so we will see if the 13 pitcher staff pays off.

  4. VaRedsFan

    What’s the backup plan for CF if Schebler continues to stink. Even Billy mixed in hit every now and then.

    • TomN

      DFA Kemp and bring up Ervin. It’s spent money anyway.

      • ohiojimw

        Schebler is optionable. Just let Ervin get a head of steam up at AAA and then if Schebler is still struggling, make a straight swap. Then when Senzel is healthy and back up to speed, bring him up.

  5. Reddawg12

    The issue with this handling of the rotation is that the bullpen is also average. Especially as long as Iglesias is struggling. Milwaukee had a very strong pen last season to make up for their average rotation.

    With that said, it’s still super early. I think the offense will come around soon and we will string together a few W’s. Winker, Schebler, and Kemp are not this bad.

  6. Sliotar

    “Bell will certainly face plenty of criticism for this, but this exact handling of a rotation won the Brewers the NL Central in 2018.”

    Nice plan…however…

    the Brewers 2018 trio of Jeffress/Knebel/Hader (all all-stars at some point) is light years ahead of Iglesias and the “Scrap Heap” trio of Duke/Hughes/Hernandez
    (average age 100. Just kidding. Kind of.)

    and Lorenzen? He was “meh” last year, at best.

    This team better start hitting soon, because the Reds bullpen collectively last season was bottom top 10 in xFIP and bottom five in K/9.

    And it’s the same guys back this season. No bueno.

    • Jay

      Yeah that was just because they were out of gas the whole year, especially after having to come in the 3rd inning the whole month of April last season. Hughes, Hernandez, Lorenzen, and Iglesias were more than adequate last year. Even if the bullpen were bottom of the NL in all those categories, those 4 did their jobs. It was the patchwork players coming in and out of the roster that made this bullpen look worse than it was.

      • ToBeDetermined

        Jay
        Good Point. Stats can be deceptive on the surface.

  7. WVRedlegs

    The Reds offense sputtering. Dare I ask. Was Scooter the straw that stirred the Reds offense the last 2 seasons?? It wasn’t Billy. But something seems like it is missing.

    • Jay

      Yup I think Scooter was their mojo and without him they seem melancholy. Always seemed like Scooter contributed every game. Lets hope they find their mojo elsewhere.

      • TomN

        What would the offense be like with Gennett and Senzel back in the order? Scheb needs to produce. He goes through slumps like this from time to time. But we could have beaten the Brewers the last two nights with some hitting. Can’t leave MOB against top teams and expect to win. Our SP the last two nights was enough to keep us in the games. Even with Lorenzen tonight, we could have gotten right back in the game.

  8. TR

    Is the offense aware that spring training is over?

    • ohiojimw

      Should be since now they are seeing serious pitching in a mood very focused on getting outs.

    • Hanawi

      Schebler is aware because he was actually hitting in spring training

  9. CP

    Every year, I forget about fans overreact the first 10 games of the year. Every.Single.Time. It’d be nice if the Reds got off to like a 8-2 start for once though.

    Losing stinks but I think the Reds will win a good amount of ball games if they give up 4 runs or less. The Brewers still look like the best team in the division, and it seems like some of the Reds are struggling pretty hard out of the gate. We’ll see how it goes next time we see them in late May. Hopefully at least 2 of 3 of Alex Wood, Scooter Gennett, and Nick Senzel are healthy by then. I doubt the Reds really envisioned Kyle Farmer getting high leverage ABs very often this point in the season.

    • Jay

      Well said. Its been 4 games and already seeing the “same old Reds” comments. People need to lighten up.

      • Indy Red Man

        Well their lineup still isn’t as good as Milw or Chicago. St. Louis picked up Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller. The Cards have better young arms then the Reds. Iggy looks shaky and so is everyone else in the pen. Hughes & Hernandez won’t last forever. I like Garrett and the starters should be better, but I don’t see .500 anytime soon, let competing for the playoffs. Yes its early, but it is the same old Reds.

      • Jay

        Then why bother? Why even be watching or commenting if you feel that way? If you really want to throw in the towel when there is 159 games to go, go ahead. However, if you want to be a reasonable fan and know that ups and downs occur for every team at various periods I think we would all prefer you withhold judgement until after 10 seconds into 2019.

      • Indy Red Man

        I’m a Reds fan and have been for 45 years. I watch when they’re 50-70 every year and 18 games out. This team isn’t competing. Face the facts. I’d love to be wrong? I’ve been wrong before.

      • citizen54

        Isn’t competing? Come one man. They lost a couple of 1 run games. Arcia’s home run was 342 ft which mean hit anywhere else would have been a routine flyout. If things bounce the Reds way they very easily could be 3-1. They aren’t getting blown out against a team that beat their brains out last year and that’s a good sign. The pitching has been good so far. The hitting will come probably come around.

        Jay is correct. People often make too much out of the first few games of the season. If the Reds go 1-3 in the middle of the year losing a couple of 1 run games, no one bats an eye.

      • greenmtred

        They may or may not be any better than they were last year, but they aren’t the same. They’ve revamped the rotation, and it’s too early to tell how much benefit this will provide. They’ve also added hitting (based upon track record, at least) and lost some defense in the outfield. Too early to tell how that will work out, as well. Not to mention the new manager and coaches.

    • Eric Wormus

      But…the Reds DID envision Kyle Farmer getting high leverage ABs because they literally kept him on the 25 man roster at the expense of Nick Senzel.

      • lost11found

        Moot point. Senzel’s hurt. Doesn’t matter if it was a MLB game, MiLB game, or twisting his ankle stepping on a gopher hole in his front yard.

      • Eric Wormus

        No, it’s not a moot point. The Reds chose Farmer over Senzel when both were healthy. They knew there’d be games where Farmer was batting in critical situations and still chose him over Senzel. They deserve all the bad breaks they are getting.

      • matthew hendley

        Eric, that statement is False. Farmer got Optioned literally hours prior to Scooters injury. Since they were still in Arizona, they just had to turn him around and recall him back to the Majors. If Scooter was healthy, Farmer would be in Louisville right now.

  10. jay johnson

    the team is batting 083 with risp.That cant continue.Even little league hitters do better than that.Things will get better.
    Doesnt anyone think that Bell is over managing?

  11. ohiojimw

    Getting touched up for a 3 run homer by the #8 hitter with 1st base open is a mistake that should not be made. But let’s not sweep under the rug the role of the guy who allowed the hit and walk which put the first two runners aboard. There is blame to share and go around.

    • scotly50

      Thank goodness the Reds got such a homer from a pinch hitter or they would be winless.

    • Hotto4Votto

      I didn’t quite understand the move to go to Duke there. Aguilar is RH, Moose a LH, but Grandal is a switch hitter. Both Aguilar and Grandal reached on a guy that struggles to get righties out.

      And I agree that they should walk the 8 hitter with the open base to force the Brewers to take out Chacin. I believe I heard Arcia was perfect against Lorenzen going into the AB.

      Curious and questionable for both calls there.

      • Jefferson Green

        The question on going to Duke there is a good one, but walking a lousy 8 hole hitter in order to face Ryan Braun with the bases loaded is not a preferable option. Getting Chacin out of the game was not nearly so important as preventing runs in that instance. And Chacin was not very effective that next inning and wound up coming out mid-inning, so nothing lost there. DB’s reasoning there was solid; Lorenzen didn’t execute. No amount of managerial decision-making can overcome poor execution.

      • Michael

        With 2 outs in the inning, I would rather face their #8 hitter, who hits 8th for a reason, then load the bases for a pinch hitter named Ryan Braun. You can say that they brought in the wrong pitcher in that “high leverage” situation, but I was ok with Lorenzen coming in. He just made a bad pitch and the hitter got too much of the ball. I thought that DB would not hesitate to use his best relievers in high leverage situations, i.e. Garrett or Iglesias, at any time in the game to get crucial outs. I am not a saber metrics guy, but that appeared to be the highest of high leverage situations in the game to that point.

    • indydoug

      Braun was on deck. Rather face him with the bases loaded? Not me.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Right. You absolutely pitch to the #8 hitter (who is a poor hitter, to say the least) instead of the pinch hitter at #9 spot with bases loaded. I couldn’t understand why the radio broadcast was questioning Bell’s decision to pitch to Arcia. Seemed obvious.

        Reds were victims of terrible relief pitching that inning. Zach Duke let two right-handed hitters on base. I don’t think he should be used for entire innings. Maybe let DeSclafani get the first guy (RH) then bring in Duke.

        Then Lorenzen grooved the home run pitch. Really bad pitch.

  12. Yea its me

    If you can’t hit the other way ,u lose
    If your pitchers are struggling with strike zone ,you can’t waste pitches
    If your in last place in spring training your not ready for season
    If your not ready for season who kept you on the roster or who hired you to coach?

  13. jreis

    A couple of points.

    1. this season so far reminds me of the 1982-1983 years. we had good enough starting pitching to keep us in the games but we could never quite score enough runs to get over the hump to win many games. but I will take these 4-3 losses any day to the 15-1 beatings of the last few years.

    2. I love Puig’s passion for the game and enthusiasm. the clubhouse has sorely missed this type of leadership since Scott Rolen left. I loved in the bottom of the ninth all the Reds, led by Puig, were standing at the edge of the dugout cheering the reds on. been a while since I have seen that. I don’t know what the plans are for Puig longterm but I would certainly like to keep around long enough to be a mentor for guys like Senzel and Trammel. He reminds me a lot of Dave Parker who was a huge influence on guys like Barry Larkin and Eric Davis.

    3. I don’t know what the club record is for stolen base futility but I guarantee we are going to crush it this year.

    4. these 6:40 starts stink I am sorry. the reds are not a local city team like the newYork mets where people catch the subway to get to the game. fans come from Indiana, Knetucky, West Virginia. It’s too hard to get off work at 5, beat rush hour traffic on 1 -75 and get to the game nearly on time. You wonder if that is contributing to lower attendance numbers on weekday games the past 2 years?

  14. Big Ed

    Kemp, Schebler and Winker are a collective 0-for-31. That is almost impossible.

    There was a famous sign in London in 1939, as Britain’s peril was becoming obvious: “What price Churchill?”

    What price Senzel?

    • Mason Red

      The price is trading possible success now for possible success later. For the Reds success is always down the road or just around the corner. Be patient and wait. How’s that working attendance wise? 8,000 last night? Yeah it was cold but I’m not buying that’s the only reason for 35,000 empty seats. I haven’t been to a game for 3 years. Call me a fair weather fan if you want but I’m not driving a hour and spend over $100 for tickets and concessions to watch a bad team. And I think a lot of fans feel the same way.

      • Westfester

        In my opinion you don’t have the right to complain about the attendance if you admit you haven’t been to a game in 3 years.

    • Michael

      Update: After 5 innings today, that is now 0-for-37…….Yikes!

  15. Ted A

    With a couple of decent at-bats the last two games by Schebler we very well could have won both. I really think the biggest mistake they made in the spring was not putting Senzel on the 25-man roster and I think these first few games could have played out a little differently had he been playing instead of getting sent down to AAA, but we will never know. I do know Schebler has looked absolutely terrible in every aspect of the game through the first four. I also think sending Senzel down might have contributed a little bit to these terrible numbers at the gate after opening day…a decision that I think most fans disagreed with and felt let down by the organization…again.

    • Doc

      Winker had a bad spring coming off an injury and surgery, and has kept up the poor performance. Ervin should have been kept and Winker sent down on the bases of: spring performance, 2018 performance over the entire season; play same position. Schebler/Senzel is not the only questionable roster decision.

  16. PhP

    Seems like every move Bell has made so far this season has backfired.

    As others have mentioned already, the bullpen isn’t supposed to be a strength of the team so pulling pitchers after 5 every game may not be the best course. Especially at the expense of an extra position player on the bench.

    • greenmtred

      DeSclafani was pitching well, but he was nearing 90 pitches on a chilly night in his first start, and was due to bat the next inning. That move is easy to criticize in hindsight, but it made sense.

    • Nate

      Dietrich pinch hitting on opening day didn’t back fire

      • PhP

        I’m not saying I’m criticizing his moves. I was making the observation that the outcome of his moves have seemed to backfire (Hughes giving up the lead on opening day, Iglesias giving up first bat homer on opening day, not having Schebler bunt in the 9th first Brewers game and Duke/Lorenzen last night).

        Once again, not saying these weren’t correct moves, just saying the players aren’t making his decisions look good in hindsight. In 3 of the 4 games there have been manager decisions that people have questioned and in hindsight seemingly all of them haven’t worked out in Reds favor.

  17. Nate

    Disco looked good, hopefully this will be the norm going forward. Bob Steve may want to be a starter, and that may be in the cards for next year, but I really like his stuff coming out of the bullpen. I can see him becoming a big part of the bullpen if his flashes become more consistent.

    It’s early, only 4 games in but Winker, Schebler and Kemp all seem to be trying to hard to hard. Not sure if they feel like they are still auditioning or what, but they don’t look comfortable or relaxed at the plate.

    On to the next one

  18. jessecuster44

    Tip your cap? Baloney. Lorenzen missed his spot by two feet. Catcher set up way outside, and Lorenzen’s pitch sailed right over the heart of the plate.

    Cold weather or not, first week of season or not, that pitch was inexcusable. It cost the Reds the game. Lorenzen said all the right things after the game, but Reds pitchers are going to have to be smarter in key spots this year if the team’s record is to improve.

    • Big Ed

      Yes. Lorenzen looks to me like he sacrifices command for an extra couple of MPH. When Lorenzen recoils after a pitch, instead of going straight to the plate like Roger Clemens, he is lost.

      The Reds needed a good start to the season, or else they would burn the optimism that the off-season had generated. Four games in, and they have the worst record in the National League. Only the total die-hards (like us) will still be paying attention by Derby Day, still hoping to catch the first game of the season in which the Reds’ staff walks less than 5 in a game. 26 walks in the first 4 games.

      But, hey, they will have “control” over Nick Senzel in 2025, and 5,300 people will be there in April 2025 to watch him.

  19. Hotto4Votto

    It’s interesting, (cold weather, SSS, and all other cautions applied) that after a winter mandate to get the pitching, that it’s been the two returning starters that have put together the better two starts the first time through the rotation.

  20. matthew hendley

    Senzel had a serious ankle sprain sliding into second. This may shock some of you, but there are second bases in both the Minors and the Majors. Putting him on the 40 and 25 man rosters (cause you would have to do both) would not change the fact that there are second bases to slide into and subsequently sprain ankles on. The only difference is that Schebler would be in the Outfield, while Senzel was picking up a Major league Paycheck, and burning MLB service time while not contributing. The reds would have also lost a year of team control. Sending him down was the right move and has been vindicated. Saying otherwise is not only childish, it is outright unintelligent.

    • Big Ed

      Senzel will be a mainstay on the Next Good Reds Team, mythical as that may be. Schebler is very unlikely to be on that team, and Kemp for an absolute certainty will be not be. This horse has been beaten to death and through purgatory, but I thought the wiser move was to play Senzel — the future — now, not relegate him to AAA so as to gain some silly amount of “control” in 2025.

      Schebler reminds me a bit of Chris Heisey, who would show flashes, then completely step on himself when given a few weeks to play regularly. They need to trade Kemp, for whatever they can get, even if it is only a case of Swiffer pads from Wal-Mart. And play Senzel.

    • VaRedsFan

      The extra year of control does not matter as much as it use to. If a prospect comes up and shows he belongs and is star material, is now just extended beyond his control years at a discount. If a top prospect fizzles, you just let his control years melt away, and since he fizzled, nobody is worried about that 6th year anyway.

  21. Ted A

    You are a moron. You have no idea what would have happened had Senzel been up woth the Reds…I do know Schebler has been downright terrible in a few game changing at bats already. Before you come off next time acting as if you know everything, maybe realize none of us have a crystal ball including you.

    • matthew hendley

      Kettle calling the pot black here. No one is arguing that Schebler is a world beater right now. However, WITHOUT A DOUBT, he would play better defense then Senzel would right now with that boot on. UNDOUBTABLY, if Senzel was on the 25IL and the 40 man right now, collecting Major League service time and Salary, while still producing the exact same he is now (nothing), everyone here would be calling for the heads of the FO for not sending him down. I don’t claim to know everything, but I sure as hell know more then you.