Final R H E
Milwaukee Brewers (4-1) 4 11 0
Cincinnati Reds (1-2) 3 8 1
W: Alex Wilson (1-0) LRaisel Iglesias (0-1) SV: Josh Hader (3)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread | Statcast

Well, the good news is Christian Yelich didn’t set the MLB record for most consecutive games with a home run to start a season. The bad news is he — along with long-time Reds killer Ryan Braun — still hurt Cincinnati pitching anyway.

The reigning National League MVP doubled and scored the winning run in the top of the ninth against Raisel Iglesias as the Milwaukee Brewers continued their recent dominance over the Cincinnati Reds.

Following a rough debut for Tanner Roark, the bullpen was mostly lights-out and the Reds offense came back from a three-run deficit. But it ultimately wasn’t enough to overcome some missed opportunities and the dangerous Milwaukee offense on a chilly Monday night.

Here’s how it all went down:

The Hitters

The Reds scattered eight hits on the night, including two each from Jose Peraza and Tucker Barnhart. Yasiel Puig also picked up his first hit as a Red, and it was a big one as he lined a two-run double down the left field line in the fifth inning.

However, the night was full of missed opportunities. The Reds loaded the bases with one out in the first inning, but Matt Kemp and Peraza each struck out on seven combined pitches to end the scoring threat. They threatened again in the third when Scott Schebler walked and Joey Votto singled to lead off the inning, but a Puig double play stifled the rally.

Cincinnati didn’t break through against Zach Davies until the fifth when Puig notched his first hit of the year. That cut the deficit to one. In the sixth, the Reds pulled even. Peraza and Barnhart hit back-to-back singles to open up the inning, and the former ultimately came around to score after a pair of fielder’s choices.

Down one run in the ninth, Curt Casali led things off by doubling down the left field line against Josh Hader. (Not bad for your first at-bat of the season.) Michael Lorenzen pinch ran for Casali and never moved as Hader buckled in and did what he normally does against the top of the Reds’ lineup. Schebler struck out, Votto flew out to left field, and Puig popped out in foul territory.

The Hurlers

Tanner Roark’s debut with the Reds did not start as planned. He allowed three runs in the opening inning on three walks (one intentional), two doubles, and a single while nibbling around the strike zone. It took 34 pitches for him to get out of the first, and only 16 of those were strikes. As Chris Welsh said on the Fox Sports Ohio broadcast, “He’s pitching not to make a mistake rather than taking it to the hitter.”

The right-hander settled down over the next 3 1/3 innings and started painting the corners with his fastball. No more Brewers crossed the plate under his watch, as he allowed three singles and no walks after the first inning. In particular, Roark used his slider effectively, getting a swing and miss over a quarter of the time he threw it. He ended the night with six strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings.

David Bell removed Roark with one out in the fifth inning and turned the ball over to Amir Garrett. That would start a stretch of 3 2/3 scoreless innings by the bullpen. It wasn’t the cleanest of outings for Garrett (two singles, one walk), but his stuff looked as good as ever. He peppered Brewers hitters with 98 mph fastballs and sweeping sliders, striking out three in 1 2/3 innings.

Zach Duke tossed a perfect seventh inning, while David Hernandez worked around a single in the eighth. That left the game tied heading into the ninth, when Bell opted to bring in Iglesias to face the top of the Brewers’ order. As was the case on Opening Day, Iglesias didn’t look like his normal self. The weather may have played a factor, but he only averaged 92 mph on his fastball and topped out at 93, and his breaking balls didn’t look as crisp as usual.

After Yelich, who had been 0-for-4, to that point, doubled with two outs, Braun swatted a double of his own amidst jeers from the GABP crowd to break the tie.

Notes & Random Thoughts

  • A bit of bad news broke toward the end of the game that overshadowed the events on the field: The Reds announced Hunter Greene will have Tommy John surgery after experiencing a setback in Arizona.
  • There was a lot of talk about whether Schebler should’ve bunted Lorenzen over to third with no outs in the ninth inning. Three factors make that a questionable call:
    1. Schebler doesn’t have a sacrifice bunt at any level since 2014. Do you want him trying it against one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game?
    2. He’s a power threat, and there’s an argument for letting him swing the bat to win the game.
    3. Per Tom Tango’s most recent run expectancy charts: With no outs and a runner on second, the average run expectancy is 1.10. With one out and a runner on third, that drops to 0.95.
  • Curiously, Matt Kemp started over Jesse Winker against a right-handed pitcher for a second straight game. Winker has a 144 wRC+ against righties, though in a fairly small sample (379 plate appearances). Kemp isn’t a terrible hitter against right-handers by any stretch, but you’d ideally like to see your left fielder of the future get playing time against pitchers he mashes against. The decision didn’t work out, as Kemp went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and was ejected after the second.
  • The Reds’ defense, which didn’t figure to be a strength this season, had more problems. Joey Votto dropped a foul pop-up in the top of the fourth inning that extended an at-bat for Lorenzo Cain, who later singled. Although it didn’t result in a run, the shaky start continues on this side of the ball.
  • A trade occurred in the middle of tonight’s game. Reliever Matt Wisler, who the Reds designated for assignment last week, was dealt to the Padres for minor-league pitcher Diomar Lopez.
  • Only 7,799 fans walked through the turnstiles at GABP tonight, the lowest total since May 28, 2004. That’s not surprising for a 40-degree game on a Monday in April, but eek.

Stat of the Game

To take this stat a step further, no Reds player has been hit more than 34 times in this time span (Votto). In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1999 to find a Cincinnati hitter who matches that number (Jason LaRue).

Up Next

Let’s meet back here at the same time tomorrow. The Reds and Brewers will meet for game two on Tuesday for another early start at 6:40 p.m. ET. Anthony DeSclafani (4.93 ERA, 3.86 xFIP in 2018) will make his season debut in April for the first time since 2015. Reds hitters will square off against Jhoulys Chacin (3.50 ERA, 4.47 xFIP in 2018), the Brewers’ Opening Day starter.

66 Responses

  1. Matthew

    I know it’s still early, but I can’t help but see the same old Reds we’ve become accustomed to the last four years.

    • Jay

      We’re 3 games in yet. Not a large enough sample size to determine that yet. Looks like DB is still figuring out his new team. I’d give it awhile longer before getting too concerned about it. In the bright side, they still had a chance to win this one in the end, against a very good Brewers team. If they can hang with the Brew Crew. They should be able to hang with just about any team in the NL.

    • kuz

      Let’s let the rotation get at least 2 starts each before we start worrying…

    • Patrick Jeter

      The only thing that feels similar to me, thus far, is the infuriating inability of almost every pitcher to not walk half the opposing team. I’m sure the cold weather and early season play a part in it, but too many walks has always seemed to be an issue for the Reds staff, and it doesn’t look like the new folks have helped yet. Even Castillo walked 4 (?) in his pretty good start.

  2. Indy Red Man

    You have to give Milwaukee credit. They’ve built a pretty strong for a small market. Just think what they’d look like if they didn’t let Khris Davis go (5th hr tonite). Or Domingo Santana for that matter.

  3. J

    There seems to be something fundamentally wrong with this organization’s understanding of bunts. For years they’ve had players bunting in all kinds of situations where bunting was clearly a bad idea, but tonight in what seemed to be an obvious bunt situation….

    • Jay

      I will agree on that. Scott Schebler was having a rough night already and facing a really good lefty. If there was one instance where a guy should have given himself up it was that AB. Go figure, Votto hits a deep fly the very next play. Runs tend to be at a premium in cold weather, and DB must learn to play small ball on nights like these.

      • Tom

        Agree. Team play is how you win games. Small ball.

    • Phil

      The article states above that a team can expect to average 1.10 runs in an inning with a runner on 2nd with 0 outs. That expected average drops to .95 runs with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.
      The same source though shows that there is a 61.4% chance of scoring at least 1 run in an inning with a runner on 2nd with 0 outs. That increases to a 66% chance with the runner on 3rd with 1 out.
      So assuming Schebler could get the sac bunt down successfully, the Reds would have had a better chance of tying the game (scoring 1 run) but decreased their chances winning the game that inning (scoring 2 runs).

      • lost11found

        I normally don’t like playing for one run, but would have been okay here to extend the game.

        Although its not a sure thing with schebler trying to bunt, its not a half bad idea. Hader fall towards 3B a bit and if the 1B was playing back against the lefty, then your bunt doesn’t even have to be all that good.

        More concerned about Iglesias slow start. But as long as he’s not hiding an injury, he should come around.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Great post, Phil. I was coming to post the same thing. Perhaps Bell thought of this and decided he should try to win the game given that his bench and bullpen were close to spent.

        Even hardcore sabermetric guys always qualify their statements with something like “bunts are almost always wrong.” Perhaps last night was a time where one might have worked.

        Also, however, in making the decision to bunt or not bunt, one must factor in the expected success rate of the bunt. If the odds of scoring a run were 61% before and 65% after, that assumes success. Against Hader, I can’t imagine success was any more than 50/50. So, a failure moves odds from 61% to 40% of scoring a run. A decrease of ~20% versus a potential increase of only ~5%. What that means is that Schebler would need about an 80% success chance on a sac bunt to make the decision even, and a greater than 80% success change to make it the “right call.”

        I guess i just reasoned myself back in “NO BUNTS!” 😉

      • LWBlogger2

        @lost11found – I could see that thinking but also, in general, when trying to advance a runner to 3B, the idea is to try to force the 3B to field the bunt, and that is also a little easier of a sac for most LH hitters. That said, either way (down 1B or down 3B), I’m not sure if I like Schebler’s chances of success in getting it down versus his chances of getting a hit, flyball to the OF, walking, or hitting one out there.

  4. ToBeDetermined

    I guess I’m not the only one who really has nothing to say after that game and the news of Hunter Greene.
    Some concerning performances from guys who are expected to perform.
    Tomorrow is another game.

    • ToBeDetermined

      I thought I was going to be the first comment. There’s others out there.

      • Sliotar

        About 20 more comments and we will be within shouting distance of a total similiar to all those actually in attendance tonight.

        Twitter is reporting that its the lowest in GABP history.

    • Gonzo Reds

      Hunter Greene could be the Marlins problem right now and Yelich could be on the Reds. But we didn’t pull the trigger. That’s really the applicable comment to make.

      • Patrick Jeter

        There was a Yelich for Greene trade on the table?

      • Big Ed

        No Greene-Yelich discussions have ever been divulged. Possible, but who knows? Nothing will ever stop posters here from speculating about Yelich. It’s like Citizen Kane pining for Rosebud, or George Jones’s friend who finally stopped loving her today.

        I prefer to wonder why the Reds took Mike Leake in 2009, instead of Mike Trout.

  5. matt hendley

    Roark did pitch better then Gray, that is positive. I hope it is just nerves for both of them. WIll see after a few starts. Yelich didnt home that is a positive. Reds Managers are afraid to bunt. THat is negative. CHacin used to suck before last year if memory serves. Hopefully for him 2018 was a aberation

    • Jay

      Not even a full week into the season and here come the same old Reds comments. They battled in this one and could have won with some timely hits. Its frustrating sure, but nobody should throw in the towel after only 3 games into 2019.

      • Mason Red

        I think it’s perfectly fair for some fans to be skeptical. Yes it’s only been a week but spring training didn’t exactly give reasons to be encouraged. I admire any fan who has hope and believes success is really around the corner with this franchise. Yes they made moves and actually did something this past offseason but not nearly enough was done to fix the biggest issue which was/is starting pitching. That was obvious in ST and it will continue to be a problem now that the season has started. Yes the pitching may be better than it was but it was at the bottom. I simply don’t see an ace of any kind on this team or 2 or 3 quality,consistent starters that would give this team a chance to compete.

      • Jay

        So when did Spring Training become a measuring stick for how a team will perform in the actual season? For some players ST may be cause for concern, but for the majority, no way. Guys are trying new things during ST and not trying to injure themselves. I’ll give you Raisel Iglesias maybe. He hasn’t looked good at all. Other than that though guys like Peraza, Dietrich have not missed a beat. Again, its not even been a week and fans already losing their heads. Luis Castillo has looked great and I’m sure Roark and Gray will figure their stuff out. May not have any aces on this team, but any of them should be able to go out there and throw quality starts.

  6. Jay

    Bummer. Could have won that game tonight. Reds were 2-15 RISP. Roark settled down and the bullpen was moving along nicely until the 9th. Have to find out what’s wrong with Raisel Iglesias. He didn’t look all that great in Spring Training and his velocity is down. I just hope it’s something with his mechanics and nothing injury related. Good to see a comeback. It’s just too bad they fell short. My one gripe is with Scott Schebler. All he had to do was hit the ball somewhere in the infield. Lorenzen has the speed to get to third. Votto hit the ball deep enough to score Lorenzen the very next play. Oh well, it’s pretty early and the Reds just need to get the bats going.

    • Indy Red Man

      You have to realize where Hader is releasing the ball from. It must seem to a lefty like he’s throwing it from 1st base. Ervin would’ve had a shot atleast? Better then having a useless 13th pitcher when it rains half the time in April. You’re guaranteed to have atleast 2-3 rainouts

      • Jay

        All I’m saying is Scheb could have bunted. No way they’re throwing out Lorenzen. It changed the dynamic of the game. Votto hits that flyball on the next play, and they at least go to extra innings. They essentially wasted a lead off double by not utilizing the bunt.

      • Big Ed

        Jay, I guess that Schebler is a lousy bunter (granted, his own shortcoming), and that Hader is very difficult to bunt, especially for LH hitters. The Brewers just had a very good matchup, from their point of view.

        To me, it shows the limitation of a 4-man bench. Phillip Ervin would have been a better option, or Blandino specifically for the bunt. Alas, they want to carry 13 pitchers, instead.

    • Don A

      Iglesias actually struggled somewhat last year… I do not understand the fascination with Schebler. Look at the back of his Baseball Card, He is got a very good hitter or defender for that matter. Time to move on…

    • Patrick Jeter

      Jay – In your opinion, what percentage chance did Schebler have to lay down a successful sacrifice if he tried?

    • Hotto4Votto

      The Reds short bench came back to bite them a bit with no one left to call on when it was going to be a tough matchup for Schebler.

      I wouldn’t have minded (as I armchair manage with hindsight) to see someone else PR for Casali, probably Mahle, and then send Lorenzen to face Hader. Lorenzen could have taken over in CF if they tied it up.

      The other thing that hurt was Kemp’s ejection/start. If Winker starts it’s doubtful he’s ejected, or at least less likely, and then Kemp would have been available to PH in that spot.

      But again, I get to use hindsight, which Bell doesn’t have the luxury of using.

  7. KYPodman

    Why would you not pinch hit Lorenzon (a dead red fastball hitter) for Schebler, instead you of have him pinch run for Caselli, makes no sense.

    • ToBeDetermined

      If the Reds need to have Lorenzen pinch hit for your leadoff hitter everyday starting centerfielder then have we truly moved on from the days of Billy Hamilton?

      • Hotto4Votto

        Hader is particularly hard on LH hitters, Lorenzen being a RH mayhave fared better in this particular situation.

  8. WVRedlegs

    I am concerned we will hear the same news on Iglesias soon that we heard on Hunter Greene tonight. Being that up and down on velocity doesn’t sound good.

    • Dewey Roberts

      I will be surprised and pleased if Greene ever pitches for the Reds. I just think the odds of that happening are very slim.

    • ToBeDetermined

      WV

      I thought the same thing. Especially with the fact that he also is apparently having problems with his breaking pitches (according to Jeff Brantly on the radio).

  9. jreis

    again, possibly another blessing in disguise with the Hunter Greene injury. this kid is an athlete, not a pitcher. maybe we have our new shortstop of the future now.

  10. Eddiek957

    I’d like to see him move back to short. After last years start being 1-2 to start the season at home is disappointing. Like to see Jessie in the lineup kemp and puig played for the dodgers they are used to sitting. Be nice if we can get a nice start from Disco

  11. Scott Gennett

    So far it’s been kind of discourage results, cold offensive and ineffective starting pitching. Nevertheless it should improve as the talent is there. My major concerns are Schebler’s defense in CF and Votto’s downturn with age.

  12. Ben

    The Hunter Greene news really sucks. Has Chad been tweeting again?

  13. TR

    The Reds need to get it going against the Brewers who have become a roadblock with the trio of Yelich, Braun and Hader.

    • ToBeDetermined

      TR

      Yea, it looks like the Brewers are starting off just where they left off last year.
      We knew this was going to be a competitive division.

  14. Eric Wormus

    We’re seeing early just how poorly constructed this roster really is. Matt Kemp looks about as washed as any player I’ve seen since 2014 Ryan Ludwick. The Brewers closer is a tough lefty. The Brewers starter was a righty. So the game plan was to…start the righty and save the lefty?

    The fact is, the Reds have an average corner OF playing CF, a poor defensive corner OF who is the backup CF, and your best defensive CF is a relief pitcher. The bench is Deitrich, Winker, backup C and for some reason Kyle Farmer. I still have no idea what he theoretically brings to the table.

    They are relying, in the bullpen, on two 33+ year olds who do not generate a lot of swings and misses to repeat career years and a closer who can’t keep the ball in the ball park.

    The Reds should have Senzel and Ervin on the team at the expense of Kyle Farmer and Wandy Peralta. They should have signed legitimate bullpen arms and taken what they could get for the H & H brothers.

    Instead, Bob is playing cheap. Senzel gets hurt in a minor league game he never should have been playing in, and so the Reds will continue to struggle so long as 3 bench players (Kemp/Schebler/Iglesias) continue to get the majority of starts.

  15. Vada

    It’s not that the negative commentators are throwing in the towel after just 3 games. It is that they have the SAME SENSE they had for the past 4 years. One can’t miss seeing it. I will say it again and again: the players are experiencing a negative attitude and payroll BIAS is the cause. If anyone reading this forum has a means to contact Pete Rose ask HIM if he knows what the Reds problem is. Before April ends I wonder if fans will be asking for Price to return as manager. DB hasn’t a clue as to how bunting can eliminate defensive shifts. Players don’t want to bunt because it decreases their future marketability. To expect the Reds to reach 81 wins this year, or even next year, is pure fantasy. There is only one Red that’s happy and that is the OWNER who is making more money than he can ever need. He buys HAS BEEN players while Brewers and Cubs, etc, buy PREMIUM players. These comments are not NEGATIVE, they are expressions of REALITY.

    • Big Ed

      Vada, man, they had 7,990 paid attendance last night. Ownership makes a ton more money when they win, because winning puts fannies in the seats. An extra million/year in attendance probably means about $30,000,000 more in revenue, most of which goes to the bottom line. And winning (with higher ratings) adds to the bottom line of the TV deal, in which I understand the Reds have an ownership interest.

      A winning Reds team is worth a lot more than a losing one.

  16. jessecuster44

    This is GAME 3. In 40 degree weather. Good Grief.

    Puig got a big hit in a big moment. That was AWESOME. The team came back from an early 3-0 hole and pitched 7 scoreless innings.

    The only alarming thing is Iggy. Two straight doubles, not good from a closer, or whatever we’re calling him.

    And Hunter Greene? (Get the surgery, move to shortstop, and become Lorenzen v 2.0. You heard it here first.

    Go Reds!

    • LWBlogger2

      With you on everything except maybe Greene at SS. Still might happen but I think it has to be the backup plan and not a knee-jerk reaction to the surgery. The Reds made him a pitcher because he’s got the kind of stuff that only comes around a couple times in a generation of players, in a particular system. You’ve got to see if the can pitch. If he struggles, you still can switch the guy to playing SS or somewhere else in the field and he’ll still be 22-23 years old. That’s younger than some guys drafted out of college.

  17. greenmtred

    Three games, two of which were played in cold weather, isn’t a persuasive sample size. The Reds are not a team without weaknesses, as others have noted: The bullpen may be a weakness, the defense clearly is. But before we get too wrapped up in the idea that a lack of bunting is to blame for the one and two start, let’s look at the top half of the lineup. Aside from Joey, not much hitting going on. If that continues, the season will be a disaster (as it would be for any team whose best hitters aren’t hitting). But it probably won’t continue and, besides, we’re only one game under .500, which is clsoe to where many have predicted the Reds would be at the end of the season.

    • LWBlogger2

      Agree that a 3 game sample is probably not the best way to determine rather or not the team will have success over a 162 game season. I have them winning 79 games. With some breaks, they could win 85-86 games. If things break poorly, I could see them at 74-75 wins. It’s a long season but one thing I can be almost certain about is that this team is better than last year’s team and will be way more fun to watch over the 162.

  18. David

    The Cubs are 1 -3 and got clobbered last night by the Braves. Upon modest observation, their starting pitching kind of stinks.

    They too played and pitched very poorly, in cold weather in Chicago. And the Cubs were picked by many to win the NL Central Division.

    Too soon? Who can tell? It’s April.

  19. SultanofSwaff

    We always gripe when the third base coach gets someone thrown out at home because it costs the team a potential run. Last night in the 1st I thought not sending Schebler home from second on a single to right with one out cost the team a run because after that hold the ensuing 2 batters couldn’t drive him in. Seemed like an easy send to me—Scott’s a fast dude and Yelich’s arm is merely average. In a one run loss the little things matter.

    There’s an opportunity cost to being too conservative!

  20. Kyle Famer

    I was skeptical of the trade with the Dodgers from the beginning. I didn’t like the fact that Downs and Gray were both included. I didn’t like the fact that, other than Farmer, the other pieces were just rentals. But, most of all, I was extremely worried that Matt Kemp would take ABs away from Winker. Actually it’s even worse than I thought. I was worried Kemp would take away ABs from Winker against lefties. Heck, they’ve got Winker riding the bench against right handed starters. Unless Winker is hurt, I simply cannot come up with a logical reason why he should not be in the lineup pretty much every day. This team makes me scratch my head.

    Speaking of scratching my head, another bang up job by the Reds medical staff. Pretty much just threw away a year of development by Hunter Greene by not just getting the TJ done when it was needed last year. I was convinced that Homer would never come back from TJ, but I am optimistic that because of his age and attitude that Greene will be back to 100%. But, since it’s the Reds we’re talking about, I wouldn’t count on it.

    My guess is Iglesias goes on the IL within a week. Something is up with him. Too bad there’s not a closer and a starter on the market the team could sign to shore things up. Keuchel and Kimbrel for instance.

    • Matt Wilkes

      Hunter Greene decided not to have TJ surgery earlier, not the Reds medical staff. They can only recommend a course of action. It’s up to the player to decide.

      • Kyle Famer

        Fair point and I can’t blame a guy for trying to avoid surgery.

  21. WVRedlegs

    Would/Should the Reds considered moving Hunter Greene back to SS ?? I don’t know. If ever there was a time to do it now would be a good one. The SS position in the Reds organization is pretty barren. They have 2 Cuban youngsters that are inconsistent at best, and Miguel Hernandez way down in A ball. If it was the OF as a possible move for Greene I would say no, the Reds have an abundance of OF. But a premium SS is almost as hard to come by as an Ace for the rotation. If they were to move him to SS he might be back for the opening of spring training next year. If they keep him at Pitcher he probably won’t be back until the all-star break next year or possibly not at all. He potentially could miss 2 full seasons. One if they move him to SS.
    He has the potential to be a Doc Gooden on the mound, now with an elbow injury history. Or he has the potential to be an A-Rod at SS and like A-Rod a move to 3B as he ages. That is what the Reds should weigh over the next several months.
    This is where trading Josiah Gray to the Dodgers now really hurts.

    • LWBlogger2

      See my response to Jessecuster44 above.

    • Big Ed

      I don’t think any scout projected Hunter Greene to be A-Rod at shortstop. We have no idea if he can hit professional pitching, and by the time he is ready to play again, he will not have hit regularly for about 3 years.

  22. matthew hendley

    3. GAMES. IN. We are 3 Games in, of those games two were played in conditions that were more suited to November football then. We have not seen the Full Rotation. Many players are still under 10 AB. Of the two losses, only one was a complete clunker. Anyone who is complaining the WOE IS EVERYTHING line needs to put a lid on it until the end of May at least. A couple other things,

    1. Throw up all the Math you want. If Schebler had laid even a poor bunt down during his last at bat the game would have been tied. Math it all you want. Bunting is a tool that allows for tactical advantages in places to win games. It may have won one there, but it defiantly would have gone to extras.

    2. Matt Kemp is hitting the ball harder then any other regular without a first name of Joey. Don’t need stat cast where ears would do. He is having the hitting them where they ain’t problem. He was the victim of poor umpiring last night, and a quick toss, poor umpiring at its finest. Winker will get his chances. I would wager he starts tonight.

    3. The Hunter Greene TJ is unfortunate. Also unfortunate that they didn’t have the surgery last year. The good news. Most Pitchers only have it once. Him having it at 19, in single A is much better then at 25 at the MLB level. As far as trading him to the Marlins. JTR was not going to happen as the UCL sprain was already common knowledge. The Marlins were a victim of having an actual injured player traded to them from SD that actually caused a scandal and some firings when it happened. It also has a reds connection if you can find it. We should move to Two way Hunter, and do it as soon as is medically viable.

    4. Sonny Gray- If the next start is as bad as this one then I will start worrying. Tanner got his act together after the first inning. Again, fine motor movements in 30 degree weather is an actual problem sometimes.

    5. Rasiel Iglesias- Get a doc on him. If he is injured IL him, sign Kimbril to a 1 year what ever he wants deal. We can trade him at the deadline. If he isn’t and this is just a dead arm phase, hopefully it will pass. If not, reevaluate his role.

    6. Yelich- Like I said, once you take him out of a climate controlled environment, suddenly his statistics look human again. Still wouldn’t have sent Greene, trammel or senzel for him. Tired of all of you crying about that. There are many other players in the world.

    7. Thom is the best PBP broadcaster on the reds. I can barely stand Jim Day, and the rest are just awful. Literally do not understand where you all get all this hate for him from.

    Conclusions, The season is less then a week old. The weather at half the parks is barely habitable in temperature, the reds look more energetic and have more pride in their play. The biggest question right now is the Manager, however I am still reserving judgement on that as well.

    • greenmtred

      I certainly agree with your general outlook, Matthew. Concerning Thom, though: I find that he is, too often, waxing poetic (or indignant, or enthusiastic) about something else when there’s action in the game. I don’t mind Jim Day at all

      • matthew hendley

        Fair enough, and obviously the least of my complaints. I think Thom may be the William Shatner of PBP announcing, you think he is really good or really bad.

    • Patrick Jeter

      The disdain for math some show is mind boggling. It’s not about a single instance. It’s about a methodology for decision making. Basing your decision on data is usually preferable to basing your decision on… nothing?

      In the long run, using the bunt in the “correct” situations will lead to more runs and wins than otherwise. It’s not even tricky math. It’s just what has happened in the real world. Run expectancy is calculated from what actually happened on the field. Isn’t that what all the non-math folks want? Base your decisions on what you know! Well, RE24 is just a written down record of what happened in certain situations.

      • matthew hendley

        1. Not knocking all of analytics. 2. We are talking about a singular instance. Last nights game. 3. The argument was that we needed to have schebler bunt in that situation. It would have been obvious to all. All except David Bell, evidently. Votto’s fly out that could have been a SAC FLY RBI tying the game shows that. Seriously a rookie manager mistake. Also probably influenced from the ‘bunting doesn’t work crowd in analytics’. Except it clearly would have. We are trying to win games. we are trying to score on singular incidences. HE clearly should have bunted. With Lorenzen’s speed, it wouldn’t have to even be a good bunt.

      • Shchi Cossack

        Matthew, your statement as fact that the mere decision to have Schebler attempt a sac bunt would have definitely resulted in Lorenzen scoring a run in the 9th inning is misplaced. Even if the sac bunt had been successful, a statement that Lorenzen would have definitely scored would be misplaced.

        Your use of Votto’s line drive to LF as proof that Lorenzen would have scored on a sac fly is sheer fantasy. If (and that’s a huge IF) Schebler successfully executes a sac bunt, moving Lorenzen to 3B with 1 out, Votto never sees a pitch to hit. Hader never even throws a pitch to Votto.

        The issue most at dispute is the 4-man bench and 8-man bullpen, not DB’s decision to allow Schebler to hit rather than attempt a sac bunt.

      • Matt Hendley

        Cossack, lets play it out. Scheb lays down a SAC bunt. ML to 3rd. Votto gets the 4 finger treatment, then steals second on an attempt to draw the throw. If he does, its tied, if not 2nd and 3rd with one out. And puig up. And Suarez behind them with a win on a hit. The Sac should have been made. Your point about the roster is correct.

  23. Nate

    The had chances, just couldn’t convert. I missed the 2nd inning but there were 5 runners left on base, 3 in scoring position in the first and 3rd with nothing to show for it. That’s a big missed opportunity. Iglasias just doesn’t look right to me either. Not sure if it’s lack of confidence, a change in his delivery they are working on or he just doesn’t like the cold but he’s missing something.

    Shame about Greene but hopefully he can come back strong.