This year represents the fifteenth Opening Day that we’ve celebrated here at Redleg Nation. Fifteen consecutive seasons that Reds fans have bounded through the gates at Great American Ball Park, filled with excitement and optimism over the possibilities of the upcoming baseball campaign. This is going to be our year!

Sure, Cincinnati’s record over the first fourteen seasons in the Nation’s history is 1,077-1,191, and more than a generation of fans haven’t seen the Reds win a playoff series…but we just can’t help ourselves every spring. As Opening Day approaches, Reds fans always seem to get a little over-enthusiastic about the club’s chances.

I remember the first Opening Day I ever attended, back in 1993. Jose Rijo pitched eight shutout innings, Chris Sabo hit a homer, and Rob Dibble surrendered a mammoth home run in the ninth. The Reds won 2-1 and it snowed much of the day, but we were sure that the win was going to launch Cincinnati to a second World Series championship in four years.

The Reds lost 89 games that year.

On Opening Day 2005, we had just launched this silly little website and hopes were high that we were going to have a fun team to cover. Here’s something I posted the day before the season began:

The next day, Adam Dunn hit two home runs, a packed GABP chanted “who’s your daddy” to Pedro Martinez in unison, and Joe Randa delivered a walk-off homer to defeat the Mets, 7-6. Here’s my report, which is strange to read all these years later.

I vividly recall leaving the park after that game, exhausted and absolutely sure that the walk-off win was an omen that the Reds were going to surprise everyone that year. After all, they were such a fun team with so many great personalities; not just Dunn and Randa, but Sean Casey and Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns and Aaron Harang (and, ummm, some other pitchers). Finally, the good guys were headed for a fun season.

The Reds lost 89 games that year.

Which brings us to 2019, our fifteenth Opening Day. At the end of last season, after five full years of simply awful baseball, my optimism had been completely exhausted. I had none left to give. And if you had told me then that the Reds were going to play cynical service time games with Nick Senzel again this year in a bid to save Bob Castellini a bit of cash in 2025 — as they did last week, to my consternation — I feel like I would have probably given up and spent my discretionary income on FC Cincinnati gear and tickets instead of the Redlegs.

And yet…here we are. I’m definitely irritated by the Senzel saga and it really dampened my enthusiasm for Opening Day. But the Reds did so much during the off-season to improve this club, I can’t help but be irrationally optimistic. It’s what I do this time of year.

So let’s do this. Here are the five biggest reasons that I’m optimistic about watching the latest edition of Cincinnati Reds baseball.

1. David Bell and the new coaching staff.

I’ve been pretty enthusiastic about every single hire the Reds have made since dismissing the Not-So-Dynamic Duo of Bryan Price and Jim Riggleman last year. David Bell has been a breath of fresh air, evidencing a mind that is wide open to every advanced analytic concept that can be found in a spreadsheet. There is also reason to hope that Bell, who has been in many big league clubhouses during his career as a player and coach, will be able to translate the new direction of the front office to the players on the field. A lack of communication between front office and the playing field was a very real problem with the previous administration, and I’m really interested in seeing how Bell impacts the actual games.

I’m certain there will be times when I am befuddled by a decision made by Bell. The early returns, however, are good. I mean, look at this Opening Day lineup!

Just as exciting to me is the way president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall joined with Bell to fill out the rest of the staff. Derek Johnson is one of the most well-respected pitching coaches in the game. Turner Ward has a similar reputation as a hitting coach. Stealing those two from the Brewers and Dodgers, respectively, was an underrated coup.

But it didn’t stop there. The Reds have a “Game Planning Coach” now, Jeff Pickler. I don’t even know what that is, but I love it. Former Red Caleb Cotham is the assistant pitching coach, tasked with helping communicate all the new technology the Reds have obtained with the pitchers and how it can help them improve. Will any of this mean more wins? I don’t know…but I’m optimistic.

2. Luis Castillo

Matt Wilkes has begun making the case for how Castillo can become an ace. Reading that gets me antsy with anticipation. That fastball! That changeup!

Castillo has shown flashes over the last couple of years as to what he can be. He’ll be 26 years old this season, and you don’t have to squint very hard to see him finally coming into his own. This will be Castillo’s second full season in the majors, and I’m feeling optimistic that he will reach full maturity in 2019, and become the guy that Jeff Sullivan described thusly just one year ago:

What is important to the Reds is that the only thing Luis Castillo has left to do is keep on staying healthy. He already has the arm. He already has all of the pitches. Eight months from now, it might not be very hard to identify the best starting pitcher in the NL Central. Castillo simply has to keep himself together.

I have a good feeling about this.

3. Yasiel Puig

His Instagram account is legendary. He licks bats and flips them, too. He embraced Cincinnati immediately upon his arrival, and the Queen City returned the love. Puig is your friend.

He’s also a pretty good baseball player. Puig was an All-Star almost immediately, playing at a very high level — .305/.386/.502, 151 OPS+ — in his first two seasons (at the ages of 22-23). He’s 28 now and while he hasn’t reached those early numbers in the years since, he remains a productive hitter (.264/.337/.490 and 119 OPS+ the last two years). He’s in the final year of his contract, motivated, and playing in a park that encourages home runs for the first time in his career. I’m, yes, optimistic that he’s going to be a dynamic presence in the middle of Cincinnati’s order.

He’s also fun. I like fun.

4. The Projection Systems

Pretty much all of the mathematical projection systems see the Reds as a .500 team, middle of the pack in the National League Central. But those same systems see the Central as the tightest division in baseball, top to bottom.

So while I don’t necessarily expect the Redlegs to make the playoffs, only a few things would have to go right in order for the Reds to make a push for October baseball. Meaningful games in September? Color me optimistic.

5. Joey Votto

We may never again see another hitter as good as Joey Votto in a Cincinnati Reds uniform. And I’m here to guarantee you that he is going to return to form in 2019. We’re going to see vintage Votto.

And he’s already trolling everyone who says he’s begun an age-related decline:

Votto is an international treasure, and I can’t wait to watch him play every single day.

Ultimately, the Reds may limp to the October finish line once again. If so, I’m sure we’ll have plenty to say about that here at the Nation. But now, with the sun appearing over the horizon on the annual Cincinnati Opening Day holiday celebration, feel free to give in to your impulses. Get excited.

It’s going to be a great season. Our guys are finally going to be back in the playoff hunt, and even better, they’re going to be fun. I choose to be optimistic. For now, anyway.

31 Responses

  1. doctor

    Yes, somebody has to be the NL 2019 version of the 2018 Oakland A’s(97 W’s). Enough talent and pieces are there for the Reds to be that team(well maybe not 97 W’s, lol).

  2. matthew hendley

    I think the reds will do particularly well this year, certainly better then just a run of the mill team. I think the Centeral will be close to the point the reds can compete.

  3. Wayne nabors

    Chad thanks for the 05 memories,remember it like it was yesterday,seems I remember someone saying this ball is headed to Kentucky after Adam hit his 2nd haha.would have been a great day but later on Illinois was robbed by the stripes in champ game

  4. SultanofSwaff

    This division is going to be a bloodbath!

    • Shchi Cossack

      Five teams just beating each other to a pulp! Last team standing in a cage match. This season should be fun and it feels good to be a Reds fan.

      • Jim Walker

        Agree and it doesn’t really matter to a degree if the baseball isn’t always top tier when 5 teams are evenly matched and playing each other 19 times. The competitiveness should more than make up for any lack of quality.

  5. CFD3000

    Thanks for this and your perpetual optimism (and that Linden guy’s too). Im optimistic because it’s Opening Day! Isn’t that how it’s supposed to work? But from a tangible perspective, forget for a moment that Jesse Winker is healthy and Jose Peraza is improving and Joey Votto is rededicated and the front office is shrewd (mostly) and the new coaching staff is state of the art and the bench is upgraded and the starting staff is formidable. Just consider these two upgrades:
    1. The Reds were 1-19 in Homer Bailey’s starts last year. He has been replaced by Sonny Gray (or Alex Wood or Tanner Roark – take your pick). That’s almost certainly at least a 9 game improvement form last year. Bailey was literally the worst pitcher in the NL last year. No more.
    2. Billy Hamilton, human highlight reel, was also the worst every day hitter in the league. He’s been replaced by Yasiel Puig, actual Slugger. Hamilton was literally the worst hitter hitter in the NL. No more.
    There are many reasons to be optimistic but if those two BIG upgrades alone are cause for excitemtent. Opening Day! Go Reds!

    • Amarillo

      It’s even more than that. In my opinion this stat is ridiculous. There were 1,482 plate appearances last year by position players who are who are no longer in the organization (23.75% of the total plate appearances). Hamilton (556), Duvall (379) , Williams (132), Dixon (124), D Herrera (97), Mesoraco (45), Tucker (42), Pennington (34), Gosselin (28), Cruz (26), Guerrero (18), R Herrera (13), Federowicz (7)…and there isn’t a single player in that group that would have made our bench this year.

      There were also 319 Innings pitched (basically 36 games worth of innings) by pitchers no longer in the organization. Harvey (128), Bailey (106.1), Brice (37.1), Floro (36.1), Crockett (9.1), Quackenbush (9), Shackelford (8), Rainey (7), Reyes (5.2), Gallardo (2.1), Weiss (0.0, 4 runs no outs in one appearance)

      Of that group of pitchers the only player I’d want back is Dylan Floro.

      • Jefferson Green

        Great stats and reminder. Yes, this team will be much better.

        And to think that between Bailey and Finnegan, the record was 1-17. In their 25 starts, only 4 games had the Reds opponent scoring less than 3 runs while Homer or Brandon was on the mound. Big improvement coming.

      • Armo21

        Great Posts CFD3000 & Amarillo!

        Go Reds!

      • KDJ

        The Reds were notorious for giving Bailey no run support, even in the winning years. Not saying they should have kept him . . . just saying that many Bailey losses and no decisions over the years came after he pitched well. Bailey may go out and give up 1-2 runs through 8 (and lose), or he may give up 4 runs though 2+ innings. You did not know which pitcher would show up.

      • Jefferson Green

        Yes, Homer’s record was worse than his pitching deserved, partly thanks to unearned runs in some of his decent outings, but his pitching was still lousy overall (xFIP in bottom quartile of pitchers who threw 100+ innings). At the start of the season, in particular, he was up against the ace of the opposing staff, which further distorts won-loss records. In any case, if he had won at a more expected rate, the 2019 replacements for him and Finnegan would be expected to be closer to .500 and add numerous (5?) wins. Nice increase.

  6. Scott C

    So does that mean that after your optimism in 1993 and 2005 the Reds 89 games, that this team will lose 89 games???
    Like you I am optimistic, conservatively, optimistic. If we play a little above .500 and not totally out of the race by mid August, I’ll be reasonably happy. If we win 89 games I will very happy. If we get a wildcard or win the division I’ll be ecstatic. If we win the WS I’ll probably die a happy person.

  7. lost11found

    Optimistic for the season as always. It seems baseball triggers this in fans more than other sports. Perhaps since the sport has a high degree of luck, its possible to ride a stretch of ‘hot’ baseball and career years to the postseason and beyond.

    The roster spot that still makes me wonder is Peralta. Perhaps Derek Johnson found something in his delivery and helped him fix it. This crew of coaches doesn’t seem like a group to chase small-sample size without cause.

  8. Seat101

    The Reds will go 15 and 3 to start the season.

    • ToBeDetermined

      Seat

      I can’t recall but, did they go 3 and 15 last year ?

      • Steve Mancuso

        3-15 (Price fired) headed to 3-18.

    • WVRedlegs

      Seat, have you seen the schedule for April??
      Through May 2:
      7 games vs. PIT.
      3 games vs. MIL.
      3 games vs. MIA.
      5 games vs. STL. Two somewhere in Mexico.
      3 games vs. LAD.
      4 games vs. SD.
      3 games vs. ATL.
      4 games vs. NYM.
      After these first 32 games, if the Reds are at .500 that would be a good accomplishment. The NLC will be tough indeed. But really, the whole NL will be mostly a tough row to hoe. A 100 win team in the NL this year is very unlikely. A 95+ win team in the NL might not happen, either.
      The Reds usually don’t travel well out west and a west coast trip comes up in April, after they go to Mexico. That will be a 9 game road trip. Tough schedule in 2019 and interleague games with the AL West and 4 games with CLE.

      • VaRedsFan

        I think he was poking fun at last year’s start

      • Seat101

        My mistake… I meant to say 18 and three

        Hope Springs I-Ternal in the human breast.
        A feller can dream, can be not?

        It could happen

  9. Big Ed

    I was an inveterate Pokey Reese fan, so I call nobody out for boosting their favorite players.

    But Homer also had 8 starts where his WHIP was 2 or greater; he had 6 separate starts of giving up 5 ER or more. In 4 of his “only 3 ER” starts, he only pitched 5 innings, giving him an ERA for the start of 5.40. And in his last 3 starts, all of which were “only 3 ER” starts, he yielded 16 runs, 33 hits and 3 HRs over 15 innings.

    I still hope he gets it together and no-hits the Yankees this year.

  10. vegastypo

    Before we get to Just Win, Baby … I think we need to reach Just Be Competitive, Baby. That’s what I’m looking for. This is a year of “sorting” taken to a higher plane.

    Who, among the guys under contract only through this season, are worth keeping? And at what price? When the rest of that money comes off the books, who will the Reds go out and get? I think I’ve got 2020 vision right now.

    Note to Chad: Don’t let the Senzel thing get you down. Look ahead to the seasons we’ll have him! If he’s what we think he can be, it will be fun!

    • Chad Dotson

      I’m bummed out about it, man!

      • VaRedsFan

        Cheer up!!!…Our Cavs didn’t lose to a 16 seed this year

  11. WVRedlegs

    Joey Votto looking rather buff and ripped in that Aging Decline T-shirt. Good to see. I hope he gets an extra base hit in his first AB today.
    Worthless stat of the day: Joey Votto had 0 extra base hits in 50-some spring training AB’s.

  12. TR

    Opening Day and baseball returns to Redsland. It’s Cincinnati’s annual holiday with ups and downs to come, but with ups in the majority this season.

  13. Matt WI

    Google tells me that the weather looks tons better than last year’s Opening Day. Break out the bats!

  14. Seat101

    Peraza is my choice to hit the first homerun of the year for the Reds

  15. schneidley whiplash

    I attended opening day yesterday and noticed during Red’s pitching changes a “Ballboy” ran to the outfield and handed each outfielder a “note(?)” which each outfielder looked over and kept. I’ve never noticed that before… any idea’s what that was??