This season was supposed to be a throw-away. “2020,” I heard, time and time again in 2018. “2020 is the year.”

This season was supposed to have Nick Senzel steep in the minors for two weeks before coming up to get his sea legs the rest of the way. This season was supposed to have Billy Hamilton eating at-bats and Homer Bailey laboring through innings. This season was supposed to let Joey Votto’s joints and ligaments decay one year closer to retirement and one year less to compete for anything of meaning.

Then, to borrow a phrase from our friend Thom Brennanman, “all of the sudden” nothing was going as was supposed.

Joey Votto came roaring back over the offseason — joints, ligaments and resolve all stronger than ever. Billy Hamilton and Homer Bailey both found a new home in Kansas City, filling time for some other also-ran. And Nick Senzel proved a competent center fielder, the Opening Day starting center fielder many thought through Spring Training.

More importantly though, the Reds acquired Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Matt Kemp, remolding their roster into one with a chance. David Bell took the reins and brought in Derek Johnson and Turner Ward, the Sonny Gray and Yasiel Puig whisperers respectively.

The Reds essentially took their blueprint that read “Do not open until 2020,” burned it, and picked up a copy of Drake’s “Nonstop” instead. All offseason, I imagine Reds staffers were treated to Dick Williams singing, “Look, I just flipped a switch (Nick Krall: Flipped, Flipped) / I don’t know nobody else that’s doin’ this.”

This season was supposed to be a throw-away, but the Reds threw away that plan and raised everybody’s expectations instead.

The only problem with great expectations is the ease with which they can be undercut. For a fanbase so accustomed to apathy and cynicism of late, any move, personnel decision or injury that undermines the plan feels like an instantaneous slide back to the bad times. Nick Senzel won’t be starting Opening Day? Scooter Gennett is hurt now? Might as well put Tim Adleman on the mound because what’s this all worth anyway.

Take a breath, everyone. Yes, I feel like Senzel should have made the Opening Day roster too, service time be darned. But before this past December, none of us credibly felt that he would. His absence in Cincinnati come March 28 will neither doom this season nor drastically change the fortunes of the franchise.

FanGraphs projects Scott Schebler, Senzel’s center field replacement, to produce a .327 wOBA in 2019. After Schebler hit the cover off of the ball all Spring Training, I believe it. It’s not like the Reds are slipping back down to Billy Hamilton levels of production, who is projected for a .281 wOBA, by keeping Senzel down. Senzel to Schebler defensively also likely represents a wash considering the former is out of position and the latter just ain’t that fast.

Then there’s the Reds other current doomsday situation: Scooter Gennett’s injury. A groin strain that will keep the Reds All-Star second baseman out two to three months seemingly paved the way for the club to backtrack and let Senzel onto the Opening Day roster. No chance, said Dick Williams in a few more words.

“(Senzel) is showing such good progress in center field and that’s so valuable to us that I’d hate to just give up on that plan and cut that short,” Williams said in a press conference after Scooter’s injury, a fair but unfortunate assessment.

Past the Senzel implications, Scooter out for so long seemingly takes a major bat out of the Reds lineup. The FanGraphs projections show Scooter recording a .326 wOBA in 2019 while his replacement, Jose Iglesias, only projects for a .296 wOBA. But if the Reds deviate from the stated course and start Derek Dietrich instead they only fall to a … wait, they climb to a projected .327 wOBA? My point is: Scooter is a great guy and an awesome second baseman to have, but his production is replaceable.

When Senzel does come up for good, this lineup likely becomes a juggernaut. The setbacks so far don’t change that fact, and they certainly don’t make the lineup ineffective in the meantime. They’re really just setbacks.

Last week, before Senzel’s demotion or Gennett’s injury, Chad Dotson wrote optimistically for Cincinnati Magazine about the Reds offseason and their sudden, supercharged rebuild. In particular, one paragraph stood out to me:

At a pivotal moment, with the Cincinnati Reds in danger of alienating an entire generation (or two) of fans, management took a huge first step toward rebuilding the trust they’d squandered over the last 25 years. There remains work to do to convince an apathetic fan base to return to the fold, but it’s hard to believe that the Reds could have done more to change the narrative in just a few short months.

The Reds haven’t squandered their rebuilt trust just yet with their Senzel shenanigans. They will still start Yasiel Puig on Opening Day. Jesse Winker will hopefully have a full season in the lineup this time around. Sonny Gray will take the bump over the weekend, following Luis Castillo and before Tanner Roark.

All of the reasons for excitement and great expectations are still in place; the Reds just need a moment to shake off the last vestiges of the lost season that was planned.


This season, Regularly Scheduled Rain Delay will be moving to a podcast format. Occasionally, I will include a new episode with my Tuesday morning weekly column. This inaugural Redleg Nation Rain Delay pod focuses on Luis Castillo as the Opening Day starter and my 3 Bold Predictions for the Reds 2019. As this is a work in progress, please leave any suggestions for future episodes in the comments below.

41 Responses

  1. doofus

    Wes, you are back!

    As usual, you are a sage. “Senzel to Schebler defensively also likely represents a wash considering the former is out of position and the latter just ain’t that fast.”

    The Red’s FO believe that slow centerfielders like Schebler will be the wave of the future.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Schebler’s sprint speed (ft/sec) last season was 27.7, which is above average and third best on the Reds behind Peraza and Ervin (of players who return). Schebler doesn’t get enough credit for how quickly he can move. I don’t believe the OP is accurate in saying Schebler isn’t fast. He’s not Billy fast, but very few humans (or mammals) are, but he’s well above average.

      • reaganspad

        I agree Hotto. In the ST games, everyone was having problems with the sun, not only Schebler and Senzel but Kemp and Siri also.

        Schebler seemed to be getting to everything but the one play that showed me that Senzel needed time in AAA was the can of corn ball that fell in between he and Puig for a triple.

        You can be fast, but also not know how to apply those skills to the position you play. His reads off the bat still need work in CF.

        I am happy with Schebler in CF. We talk about a lot of guys in contract years with something to prove. I think that you can add Schebler to that list in that he does not want to give up this position that everyone has penciled in to another player

      • doofus

        Lorenzo Cain and Leonys Martin did not have problems with the sun. I was at the games on Friday and Saturday.

  2. doofus

    Molasses is faster than the present Red’s outfield

  3. WVRedlegs

    “(Senzel) is showing such good progress in center field and that’s so valuable to us that I’d hate to just give up on that plan and cut that short,” said Williams.
    However, Senzel was voted best defensive 2B in the International League by the IL managers in 2018 with only 44 games played. In 2017, Senzel was voted the best 3B in all of minor league baseball. Yet the Reds big plans were to move Senzel off of the dirt and to the outfield.
    And look where that has gotten the Reds front office. Senzel hurt again and out for another extended period of time to heal. Senzel wouldn’t be hurt if they had just moved him back to 2B after Gennett’s injury. He would have been in Atlanta and not in Arizona playing in a minor league game when he got hurt.
    As that baseball savant, Forrest Gump, once said, “Stupid is as Stupid does.” Looking right at you Dick Williams. Life is like a box of chocolates, and Senzel is getting all of the coconut filled chocolates from the Reds front office.

    • ToBeDetermined

      WV
      I don’t get your point…
      “Senzel is getting all of the coconut filled chocolates from the Reds front office”
      …Because I like coconut filled chocolates.
      Yum. I think I’ll go get one. naw, how about two. Yum and Yum.
      🙂

      • WVRedlegs

        You can have them. They are always the last ones left at my house. Nobody will eat them. The dogs even walk away from a free treat.

      • ToBeDetermined

        WV
        Maybe your getting a different kind than I get.
        BTW, isn’t chocolate bad for dogs ? (actually being serious with that comment)

      • matt hendley

        Chocolate is bad for Dogs. Furthermore, Nicks injury officially places him in the Injury prone section. I mean the guy has effectivly spent a seasons worth of games on the IL in the last 2 years. That all being said, the reds look much better this year. The offseason was conducted in such a way that both fans and players could hold their head high. However Thursday, it will be time to see if all this effort was worth it

      • VaRedsFan

        Coconut in the chocolate is the worst! That’s like putting kale inside a twinkie.

    • ben

      Agreed, I don’t understand why Senzel didn’t make the team even as a utility player. You can’t tell me that he’s putting time in to center and you wouldn’t feel okay with him in left. I don’t know if his arm plays in right. He can also spend time at three infield positions when guys need a day off. A guy that hits like Senzel and can conceivably play five positions should have been in our opening day plans.

    • The Duke

      How does Senzel playing CF or 2B figure into him hurting himself sliding into 2nd as a base runner? 3B is likely the most valuable position to play Senzel at. 3B is filled by Suarez for the next 6 years. 2B had Scooter in it, and will have Scooter in it later this season. It’s also one of the easier positions to fill in baseball to the point where there was essentially no trade market for Scooter over the past year. CF is much harder to fill, especially with a bat like we expect Senzel to have. Let Senzel heal, put him back out there in CF, and sometime in May have him take over if Schebler isn’t getting the job done offensively or defensively. Schebler has been given a gift of about 6 weeks of playing time to show he should be out there.

  4. andybado

    Great post! I needed it! 2019 will be better than the last 4 years combined.

    • ToBeDetermined

      Andy
      Hoping that 2019 is the apology for 2015 – 2018.

  5. Jeff in AL

    ‘ “(Senzel) is showing such good progress in center field and that’s so valuable to us that I’d hate to just give up on that plan and cut that short,” Williams said in a press conference after Scooter’s injury, a fair but unfortunate assessment. ‘

    When I read this, I thought of what might have been with Aroldis Chapman. Similar in that he was pressed into service as a replacement for the evil Ryan Madson and he never realized his full potential as a starter.

    Glad that DW stuck to his guns on this decision and in the long run, Senzel WILL be more valuable as a CF than 2B. The market is flooded with 2B and values are low. Just look at last year when the Reds couldn’t even trade away an ALL STAR 2B.

    Go Reds.

  6. theRickDeLux

    I don’t know how optimistic I am about this team. I know that they say “Spring Training stats don’t matter”, but this team performed… poorly. Now, there are injuries which = depth issues for a team not especially rich in depth. Another 60ish win season is pretty dang pathetic. Honestly, I am looking for this team to be around .500 to be labelled a success. Which, quite honest, are pathetic expectations.

  7. Bill J

    Like WV, I thought send Senzel down & he’ll get hurt again. I know, he could get hurt with the big club but we’ll never know. Maybe the REDS tried to trade Scooter & couldn’t get what they wanted, but I seen where the Yankee looked for a left-handed bat with some power & I thought he would have been a great fit for Yankee stadium.

  8. Sandman

    Is Nick Senzel injury prone? Honestly curious.

    • lwblogger2

      As far as I know he was healthy in NCAA. He was healthy three seasons ago. 2017, 2018 and now 2019 aren’t looking so good. Players get hurt. We’ll have to see if he can recover and then manage to stay on the field the rest of the season. If this lingers or he misses more time, through no fault of his own he’ll gain the reputation of not being able to stay healthy.

  9. zigbee

    Reds front office CANNOT look back and be upset due to sending Senzel down and him having a minor injury. It’s baseball, injuries occur. He also could have been seriously injured in the two games played in Atlanta and not played the rest of the year. Reds made wise moves acquiring OF help in Kemp and Puig– albeit it seems for just one year ostensibly. Combine those hitters with Schebler and Winker with an upcoming first round pick in Phil Ervin, the club has time to delay FA on Sensel and also for him to continue to work on the CF job he’ll play this summer.

    The Gennett injury is pure providence; it just was bad luck. Was a smart where the off season moves by the Reds front office to bringing in Dietrich and Iglesias. The club can make it quite well until Scooter returns.

    The bigger question is the pitching. The Bullpen will be solid and do very well. The starters will do well, not dominating at all but well. Using the late inning guys in different ways may offer more wins. The bullpen is key along with the defense not imploding. That will take work. New alignments may pay off big to help the pitchers. Got some guys in AAA who may contribute as well in Sal Romano and others.

    • VaRedsFan

      What makes you think the bullpen will do well?
      Our best RP, Iglesias, has lost MPH, and has been getting drilled this Spring.
      Rare is the day, when Lorenzen and Garrett don’t give up hits/walks/runs. Hughes is solid, but Hernandez gives up his share of missles . Zach Duke has turned into a mop up man. The one guy that’s shining at the moment, Peralta, has 2 good months of pitching 2 years ago.

      You are correct about the bullpen being the key….but I think it’s shakey, at best.

    • Mike Adams

      I am a little worried about the Reds bullpen. Seems like more often than not I would leave a spring game where the Reds had the lead in the first four or five innings. Checking back later I would find out the bullpen gave up the lead.
      I hope this is because the guys who will be being relied upon this year were working on new pitches, adjustments to existing pitches, location and so forth.
      And for what it is worth, I think starting pitching and offense will be a little better this year (offense more than starters).

      • matthew hendley

        I saw that too… to keep In mind though many of the pitchers placed into the games much later were the minor leaguers who had no chance of making the roster and were just getting work in, or getting worked by MLB hitting. It is cases like these where ST stats such as winning and losing don’t matter.

  10. SteveO

    Finnegan to Chattanooga, didn’t see that coming. Starter or reliever?

    • Doug Gray

      I must have missed it…. where is someone showing Finnegan is heading to AA?

      • SteveO

        Go to either the Louisville or Chattanooga website and look at the roster or transactions

      • Doug Gray

        That does not mean that is where a player will actually be playing. It could, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that. Happens every year.

  11. Mason Red

    Injuries and mediocre pitching doesn’t bode well for a team trying to achieve respectability. A good start is absolutely essential for this team because if they’re out of it early there will be a fire sale and the rebuild will continue.

  12. TR

    The ones who know have told me that ST means next to nothing, so I’m not going to worry. Just stay tuned to MLB to see if the Reds are rejuvenated as the actions of the offseason have indicated. And also keeping an eye on my favorite AL team, the Rays, here in Tampa Bay.

  13. gusnwally

    I am a little confused as to the comments about how slow Schebler is. Since he holds the 55 yard dash record in H.S. I thinkhe might be getting shortchanger here.

    • Big Ed

      You are correct. People think that because Schebler is a white guy built like a linebacker, then he must be slow. He is about average for an outfielder, but a bit below for a centerfielder.

      The Statcast Sprint Speed figures have him at 27.7 feet/second, which would be below Peraza’s 28.8, Puig’s 28.3 and Ervin’s 28.0, but faster than almost everybody else on the team. Winker is 26.0; Scooter 26.4; Kemp 26.2, and Votto 25.4.

      League-wide, he is directly between Gregor Polanco and Jason Heyward.

      • Greg Pearson

        “People think that because Schebler is a white guy built like a linebacker, then he must be slow.”

        Not very PI, but very true nonetheless…

      • Wesley Jenkins

        Schebler did not qualify as a centerfielder last season, but if he had, he would have tied for 52nd among centerfielders in sprint speed. That’s out of 64. He is, objectively, quite slow for the position on the field that most necessitates speed.

    • j reis

      to me he is a good “down hill runner”. once he gets moving he is very fast but doesn’t have a quick first step. he is very fast from second to home and first to third.

  14. gusnwally

    That’s shortchanged obviously sorry.

  15. VaRedsFan

    “Joey Votto came roaring back over the offseason ”

    Which Spring were you watching?

  16. j reis

    the guy I am most interested in seeing this year is Jose Peraza. What happens if June comes and he is batting .320 with 10 homers and playing excellent defense at second? If Scooter and Senzel are healthy by then it leaves the reds with a lot of different options.
    other things I would like to see this year
    1. Senzel getting time at shortstop either in Louisville or in Cincy. this makes more sense to me then the cf experiment.

    2. I would like to see Hunter Greene gets some reps at shortstop too this year? he is too athletic to not at least give him a look.

    3. obviously I hope Joey bounces back big time this year. but if puts up another .284 12 hr 59 rbi,60 run, 2 sb season we have to really start thinking outside the box with him.

  17. zigbee

    I think Iglesias will be fine. If not the club really took a big risk with the extension to him. Lorenzen needs to focus on pitching and not the OF. That is a distraction in my mind. Hughes and Hernandez will be very good. Duke? Can be a question but gotta hope the pitching coach and assistant does well with him. Peralta? He looks sharp. Garrett? Needs confidence right now to go after hitters and not nibble about and walk guys. Keep the ball out of the zone. Robert Stephenson is on thin ice and I think they will release him. In fact if they could sign Kuechel and put Mahle in the pen they would have a shot at 88 wins.

    This bullpen is key to winning over 80 games as I think the starters can give us more innings than any staff they’ve had in maybe 4-5 years before the collapse. Get it to 6th with a lead and they have a great shot at winning a lot of games.

  18. Steve Mancuso

    Great podcast. Easy to listen to. I like your three bold predictions. You have a real shot at #1 and #3 being right, imo.