After Eugenio Suarez allowed a grounder to roll between his legs, right after he and Scooter Gennett couldn’t be bothered to hold on to the ball on simple, consecutive tag plays, and right after Suarez airmailed a throw to first base, it occurred to me last night that watching the Reds had become morbid habit, rather than cheerful exercise. 

In what’ll amount to a sick one-two punch, this sad display of baseball will be followed by ownership pablum and media fluffing about how the team has “played hard” for Jim Fundamentals to the end. I mean, what should we believe, tired baseball clichés and narratives about Good Ol’ Jim or our lying eyes?

As if this Reds season itself hasn’t been enough of an insult to our intelligence. 

It’s profound understatement to say the Reds have done little of late on the field or off to inspire viewership. Yet tonight, I’ll watch. Eagerly. There’s a compelling reason to tune in. Two, really. 

Michael Lorenzen’s pitching and Michael Lorenzen’s hitting. 

Lorenzen will toe the rubber with max effort at Miller Park as the Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher. His last major league start was September 16, 2015, eerily almost three years ago to the date. Since then, the strapping Californian has made more than 150 appearances as a reliever for the Reds. 

It’s mid-September and, as you’ll see, the writers here have authored an ocean of pixels analyzing Lorenzen’s pitching and hitting. There isn’t much new to say about him this year. So this post is a retrospective of the 26-year-old’s rollercoaster journey with the Reds organization and its chronicling by the writers of Redleg Nation. 

College and the Draft

Michael Lorenzen was a two-way player for college baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton. By his junior season, Lorenzen had become the team’s starting center fielder, clean-up hitter and closer. He earned several First Team All-American honors. Lorenzen had arrived to college out of Fullerton High School as a position player. But because of his outstanding arm, he was asked by his manager to ascend from centerfield to the pitcher’s mound to finish games. Lorenzen did this 42 times for Fullerton over two seasons.

Photo: ESPN Go

The Cincinnati Reds chose Lorenzen after his junior season in the 2013 June amateur draft. He was the 38th selection overall, a competitive balance pick sandwiched between the first two rounds. 

Would Lorenzen be a pitcher or position player for the Reds? He was eager to try both. The Reds said they would entertain this. “We’re going to kind of have a unique plan with him,” said Chris Buckely, Reds scouting director. “We’re going to try to let him do a little bit of both.” 

That turned out to not be the case. The plan, far from unique, was to have Lorenzen pitch. Just pitch. In fact, Michael Lorenzen hadn’t played a minute as an outfielder for the Reds at any level until taking right field for an inning in an emergency this August. 

Minor League Years

On July 4, 2013, Lorenzen’s name appeared for the first time at Redleg Nation, in Greg Dafler’s daily “Down on the Farm” column, the morning after the young right-hander had taken the mound in his first game. “Michael Lorenzen made his professional debut, pitching in just the first inning. In his inning of work, he struck out a batter, allowed one hit and one unearned run.” 

Lorenzen rocketed through the Reds farm system that summer he was drafted. He spent brief time with the Arizona Reds Rookie team, the A-level Dayton Dragons, the A+ Bakersfield Blaze and ended 2013 with the AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos. He had pitched in 22 games, with 19 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. 

Lorenzen spent the entire 2014 season at AA with Pensacola. That April, Doug Gray penned the first analysis of Lorenzen’s pitching here. That was also when the Reds converted the outfielder-turned-closer into a starting pitcher. Lorenzen made 24 appearances in 2014 — all as a starter — over 120.2 innings, with a 3.13 ERA.

Photo: Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Lorenzen had pitched well enough the previous year to be considered, albeit a long shot, for the 2015 Reds rotation. Due to several injuries to other Reds pitchers, Lorenzen almost did reach the major league Opening Day staff. He made it to the final round of cuts, losing out to Raisel Iglesias for the fifth spot. Lorenzen was assigned to AAA-Louisville where he made six April starts. His ERA was 1.88, but he’d struck out just 19 batters in 43 innings. 

Major League Debut

Much-needed development time as a starter was not in Lorenzen’s future. That April, Homer Bailey made two starts before being sidelined with a torn UCL requiring Tommy John surgery. Michael Lorenzen was rushed up to take Bailey’s place in the rotation. His first major league start occurred on April 28, 2015, an afternoon game against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Several Redleg Nation writers made a point of attending that game together. In the recap, I wrote: 

“Lorenzen seemed poised. His only walk was a pitch-around. No wild pitches, no hit batters. I’ve seen plenty of pitchers show nerves in their first game and Lorenzen was the opposite of that. The Brewers hit him hard at times, particularly when Lorenzen’s fastball elevated. He threw a lot of pitches, which isn’t unusual for a first game. On the stadium radar gun, Lorenzen’s fastball sat 93-95 all day. He threw a breaking ball in the mid-80s. On his first pitch in the top of the third, Lorenzen showed a 78-mph breaking ball. It went for a strike against Jean Segura, as the Brewers lineup turned over to face the young right-hander for a second time.”

Also: “One last note: Lorenzen is going to hit some. He played centerfield for Cal State Fullerton. In the first AB of his career, he lined a sharp single to right field.”

Kevin Michell wrote a longer analysis of Lorenzen’s debut the next day:

“Despite the end result, his first start displayed his exceptional ability but maybe more so his focus and rapid maturation as a starter, particularly when he worked out of jams in the fourth and fifth innings. Now with the jitters and uncertainty of his first start out of the way, we can sit back and watch a young, talented pitcher learn and improve at the highest level.”

Photo: USATSI

Nick Doran, who was with the RN group at Lorenzen’s debut, had this to say two weeks later: 

“I believe Lorenzen will eventually be a good pitcher, but he has been rushed to the majors before he is ready because the Reds needed a replacement for Homer Bailey and had no other alternatives ready to step in. Lorenzen is still learning how to pitch and he is going to have to do it in the majors. That is a tough situation for any young pitcher, especially so for a guy who was still an outfielder a couple years ago. He has a very strong arm and a lot of athletic ability. I think he will succeed but there will be a lot of bumps in the road along the way.”

A couple months into the season, his fastball velocity began to wane and Lorenzen become more hittable.

“Needless to say, there’s a big difference between pitching at 96 and pitching at 92. As I’m sure they realize, the club has to figure out if Lorenzen is suffering from a temporary condition like dead arm, or fatigue from how much he’s pitched. I’ve been reading up on Tommy John surgery for an upcoming post(s) and the studies are clear that pitching with a fatigued arm puts the elbow at risk. Lorenzen’s great physical conditioning could help with that. It’s important to keep in mind how little starting (all pitching, for that matter) experience he has.”

Lorenzen went on to make 21 starts for the Reds in 2015, pitching 113.1 innings. He struck out 83 and walked 57. It had gone about as well as you would expect (5.40 ERA / 4.82 xFIP / 4.98 SIERA) for a young, inexperienced pitcher thrown into that situation. 

Ongoing Debate Over Role

Heading into the 2016 season, we began to wonder what Michael Lorenzen’s role would be for the Reds. In February it looked like he would make the Reds rotation again but elbow tenderness (sprained right ulnar collateral ligament) intervened and Lorenzen missed most of spring training and the first three months of the regular season.

If you remember, the Reds bullpen was a historic shambles in the first half of 2016. Raisel Iglesias returned from the DL in mid-June. Both he and Michael Lorenzen were assigned as relievers when shoulders and elbows permitted. Jason Linden talked with Lorenzen in Louisville about a potential role in the bullpen with the Reds and the pitcher was open to it. Lorenzen made his first appearance in 2016 on June 24 and his return, along with Iglesias, made a huge difference at the end of games. 

It didn’t take long for the issue of Lorenzen’s role to resurface. Nick Carrington wrote “The Case for Michael Lorenzen: Starting Pitcher” on August 16. A month later, Matt Wilkes added to the discussion with “Health permitting, Iglesias and Lorenzen must get a chance to start.” As the 2016 season came to a conclusion, Nick Carrington mused about Lorenzen being used as a 100-inning reliever. I suggested giving Lorenzen a half-year of starts in 2017. 

Photo: AP/Gregory Bell

Michael Lorenzen had been spectacular (2.88 ERA / 3.10 xFIP / 2.75 SIERA) in his 35 games and 51 innings as a reliever in 2016. But most of the staff at Redleg Nation believed that Lorenzen should return to the rotation, that his newfound success would translate to a larger role. Nick Carrington published posts in January, May, June and July arguing that point of view. Clay Marshall drew an interesting parallel with Norm Charlton as a starter. 

In 2017, the Reds had the opportunity during a year for sorting to try Lorenzen in a starting role. Instead, they wasted 67 opportunities on washed up journeymen who had no future with the club. Lorenzen had the best SIERA on the Reds staff in 2016, but the Reds learned the wrong lesson backward and kept Lorenzen in the bullpen all season. 

“Maybe Michael Lorenzen was the best pitcher in the Reds organization last year (2016) because he was in the bullpen. Or maybe he developed as a pitcher in ways that carry over to a starting role. Lorenzen wouldn’t be the first 24-year-old to do so. His age, stronger pitch composition and new mindset point in that direction. Maybe his vast improvement wasn’t due to pitching one or two innings at a time. Just maybe Michael Lorenzen became a different, better version of his professional self in 2016.”

The low point in the Reds mismanagement of Lorenzen came in July 2017 when manager Bryan Price said Lorenzen would stay in the bullpen because he filled a need there, not because he couldn’t start. It was breathtaking that the club hadn’t looked at the starting rotation the previous few seasons as, oh, I don’t know, a need. (We’ve Got Lorenzen for That):

“To be clear, there’s no guarantee that Michael Lorenzen would succeed as a starting pitcher. But this is the year to find out. Right now. Instead of giving useless starts to Tim Adleman and Asher Wojciechowski. Even instead of Scott Feldman. Find out now. Find out about Stephenson and Reed. And Michael Lorenzen. … The myopia over Michael Lorenzen’s role is a throwback to sluggish and failed decision-making. Putting off consideration of Lorenzen’s role to next year smacks of dinosaurs plodding away to extinction.”

Lorenzen had pitched a full, healthy season in 2017. His numbers (4.45 ERA / 3.89 xFIP / 3.84 SIERA) over 70 games and 83 innings weren’t as sparkling as 2016. But those ERA estimators were better than league average. Lorenzen was still developing as a pitcher. 

2018 and Beyond

The debate over how best to use Michael Lorenzen didn’t stop. Most of us again felt Lorenzen should get a shot at the 2018 rotation. The Reds did let him start a few games in spring training. But Lorenzen’s health (right shoulder strain) intervened and he began the year on the disabled list, returning to the active roster on May 23. By then, he was consigned back to the bullpen. I mentioned his fit in the role of a variation on Tampa Bay’s Opener, starting games pitching one time through the opposing lineup. While Lorenzen’s ERA this year (3.21) is excellent, other indicators point the other direction (4.43 xFIP, 4.49 SIERA). Lorenzen’s strikeout rate has dropped off substantially (22.2% to 17.1%) as has his swing-and-miss rate (10.4% to 7.0%).  

Adding to the controversy over Lorenzen’s pitching role was the re-emergence of his hitting prowess. Remember Lorenzen’s dramatic home run in 2016 (Chad Dotson) after returning from the bereavement list from the loss of his father? In 2018, he’s hit 4 home runs and a double in 28 plate appearances. Lorenzen’s prodigious bat raised anew the question of whether the Reds should give him practice and playing time in centerfield, where he was regarded as a plus-defender in college. Nick Carrington wrote 2500 words on the idea of Lorenzen as position player in July and concluded that using Lorenzen as a starting pitcher would best utilize his talents and athleticism.

Photo: AP/John Minchillo

Jim Walker has already started the drumbeat for Lorenzen to pitch in the 2019 rotation. 

Lorenzen’s Shot

Michael Lorenzen has drawn a tough assignment tonight, facing the big-bat Brewers in their home park and still in contention. It’s the same team Lorenzen debuted against in 2015. And the team Lorenzen is playing for seems to have quit for the year. The really great news is that Lorenzen will be with the Reds for at least three more seasons, if they don’t trade him. He can’t become a free agent until 2022. There’s still time to take advantage of his athleticism, skills and commitment. 

The truth is, we don’t know how 26-year-old Michael Lorenzen will do in a starter role. He’s nowhere near the same pitcher he was in 2015, the last time he started. But there are indications he also isn’t the same guy as the 2016 shutdown reliever. 

That’s the broader point, isn’t it?

Over three years the Cincinnati Reds haven’t given Michael Lorenzen a single start to find out.

But tonight, he finally has a chance. Lorenzen has thrown 60+ pitches twice this year, his limit could be 75 tonight. That’s 4 or 5 innings, depending on how he does. Maybe he’ll get a couple other starts in this dismal season’s last days to create an impression heading into 2019.

Better than never, I suppose. But this opportunity is long overdue. 

So, yes, I’ll be watching tonight. And cheering like crazy for Michael Lorenzen on every pitch and at bat.

Steve grew up in Cincinnati a die-hard fan of Sparky’s Big Red Machine. After 25 years living outside of Ohio, mostly in Ann Arbor, he returned to the Queen City in 2004. Contemporary Reds thrills: witnessing Jay Bruce’s 2010 homer and Homer Bailey’s 2013 no-hitter in person. The only place to find Steve’s thoughts of more than 280 characters about the Reds is Redleg Nation, although you can follow his tweets @spmancuso.

About The Author

Steve grew up in Cincinnati a die-hard fan of Sparky's Big Red Machine. After 25 years living outside of Ohio, mostly in Ann Arbor, he returned to the Queen City in 2004. Contemporary Reds thrills: witnessing Jay Bruce's 2010 homer and Homer Bailey's 2013 no-hitter in person. The only place to find Steve's thoughts of more than 280 characters about the Reds is Redleg Nation, although you can follow his tweets @spmancuso.

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34 Responses

  1. WVRedlegs

    Finally. I hope he gets those 4 or 5 innings to pitch tonight. Then when they bring in another pitcher, move Lorenzen to LF and substitute the new pitcher for whoever is in LF in the lineup. Or CF for that matter. Let him go the 4 or 5 innings as a starter and then 9 innings as a hitter tonight. Now that would set the Reds world on its collective ear.

    • WVRedlegs

      Oh, by the way, an excellent one with “Jim Fundamentals”. That hit the target like a GPS precision guided bomb. I wished I had thought of that one.

      • cfd3000

        Agree WV, but I don’t want anyone to miss the sarcasm embedded in that name and mistake it for endorsement. I’ve been referring to him as Interim Jim lately, in hopes that everyone will remember he’s NOT the Reds manager of the future.

      • I-71_Exile

        True. “Fundamentals Jim” could end up like Charlie Hustle—a dig worn as a mistaken badge of honor. Interim Jim leaves no room for error or errors if his team is factored in.

  2. VaRedsFan

    Hoping he will do better as a starter than in most of his bullpen appearances this year.

  3. roger garrett

    Just like some of the others he was threw under the bus and they are now dragging him out again so it gives us some reason to tune in and see what happens.It appears others have quit on this team so he may have to do it all himself for a few innings but hey he could do it.Might want to let Dixon follow him and then Ervin just for more fun.Couldn’t be any worse then last night’s effort by the offense and defense which some think is good enough to compete.

  4. cfd3000

    I don’t know if this long delay before giving Lorenzen a start is down to Interim Jim or if it comes from higher up, or both. But either way it feels like there are at least 4 pitchers who need exposure and experience – Lorenzen, Reed, Stephenson and Garrett. Yet so far none of them has – zero starts for Lorenzen and Garrett, a few for Stephenson and Reed, and only Reed will have had more than a handful by year’s end. I don’t know how it will go tonight – tough assignment – but I know I’ll be watching closely and rooting hard as well Steve, and every time Michael and Cody take the mound to start another Reds game.

    • David

      Stephenson is on the DL with a sore shoulder. He will not pitch anymore this year.

  5. lost11found

    I hope he does well as starter the remainder of the season, and gets a good shot at it next spring. He’s more than deserving based on the quality of his pitching.

    Perhaps this is the reds dipping their toes in the water using an ‘opener’ as well.

  6. Sliotar

    Yes, #FreeLorenzen has arrived. Anything he does tonight will be better than the no-show the Reds did last night.

    If he does not embarrass himself (and I doubt he can worse than the Reds did last night)….

    A) Why would the team consider re-signing Matt Harvey

    when

    B) You have younger, cost-controlled arms that need SP innings in 2019…to be “sorted”

    Besides DeSclafani, Castillo and Bailey…Mahle/Reed/Romano/Lorenzen all need to be seen in 2019 regular season games as SPs.

    This team could very well lose more than 94 games. It is (still) not close to contending.

    The idea that the Reds would not take the time to sort through the above guys in 2019, even if it means delaying a contention window, does not feel like a good strategy, IMO, for a small-market team.

  7. jreis

    you would like to see Lorenzen become a good starter. this would you allow him strictly to be a pinch hitter/runner or even defensive replacement the other 4 days. that would allow you to carry an extra pitcher on the roster potentially as you may need 1 less bench player.

    • David

      Excellent point, that I hope the Reds have already considered. I think Mike might turn out to be a pretty good hitter if he got enough at bats to be able to recognize ML breaking balls. He seems to be able to turn on most fastballs.

  8. KDJ

    Thanks for the good, historical perspective in the post. It is hard to believe how long he has been with the Reds and not given better opportunity to find where he could best contribute. Do I dare ask how many starts Arroyo, et al. received during that time?

    • David

      I think Price rushed him, because he had a lot of faith in Michael’s attitude and physical ability. Mike wants to learn, and wants to succeed. I think it is an unspoken article that some guys are very stubborn and don’t take coaching wel. Mike is just the opposite

  9. davemoorewvu

    I hope he throws a no hitter and hits 3 HR’s. He’s an easy guy to root for..

  10. Scott C

    I am as excited tonight as I have been for awhile to watch a Reds game. I am just hoping that the fielders behind him wake up and play interested defense. Wouldn’t hurt to get the bats going either. At least there is now once less hole at the bottom of the order.

  11. Corky Miller

    Just praying for a couple Lorenzen bunt attempts tonight so everyone on this site will lose their minds at Riggleman.

    Makes for entertaining reading tomorrow.

    • Scott C

      Most of us have already lost our minds over Riggleman bunting. Before this season started I didn’t have any gray hair.

  12. sultanofswaff

    Excellent post. Reads like a federal indictment lol.

    The only thing I’ll say in the defense of Reds management is that he got hurt. As with Iglesias, it’s defensible to say his arm cannot withstand the rigors of starting. That said, I’m firmly in the camp of nothing ventured nothing gained with both of them, especially considering how little of the payroll they take up.

    • Steve Mancuso

      The injuries are a legitimate consideration. As great of a starter as Rasiel Iglesias would have been, I think the Reds have done the right thing moving him to the bullpen permanently because of his shoulder.

      But the timing of Lorenzen’s injuries don’t really track with his starting workload. Both times he got hurt were in spring training when he’d just pitched a few innings. Not during 2015 when he pitched 156 innings. It’s also tempting to just look at him and say there’s no way that his injuries are caused by fatigue.

      He’s pitched so little in his life compared to other major leaguers.

  13. roger garrett

    He and everybody else should ignore a bunt sign.It would be a surprise if we don’t and maybe somebody would knock down a charging corner guy.Don’t want to hurt him just knock him down with a line drive.I know that’s a stretch with this great offense but it would be something to smile about.Could start a bench clearing brawl,not with the other team,just our guys fighting our guys because after last night’s game somebody ought to be mad at somebody already and maybe just bump in to a guy while laughing so hard and here we go.Now that is entertainment.

  14. Nick Carrington

    Great overview, and it’s clear that I’ve written about Michael Lorenzen far too often. He just fascinates me. I’ve obviously advocated for him to start for a few years, but the decline is strikeout rate and rise in walk rate have given me pause this season.

    However, Lorenzen made two big changes about a month ago: he started throwing his curveball instead of his slider and his velocity ticked up substantially. It’s made a big difference:

    May 23-August 12: 15.4% K% 10.6% BB% 4.74 SIERA
    Cutter: 90 MPH; Sinker: 95.3 MPH

    August 14-Today: 20.4 K% 9.2 BB% 4.02 SIERA
    Cutter: 92.6 MPH; Sinker: 95.9 MPH

    August 14 was the first time that Brooks Baseball had Lorenzen throwing the curve and there is a clear spike in velocity from that day forward.

    That big improvement is either the product of a small sample or the adjustment has really paid off.

  15. Jack

    “Jim Fundamentals ” You might want to patent that . Put that on a tshirt and you could make millions.

    • John Ring

      If Lorenzen is ordered to bunt tonight, I’d better have some Jim Bean handy!

      • WVRedlegs

        It is nice to have those friends handy in times like these, Johnny, Jim, Jack, and George.

  16. WVRedlegs

    CTrent says Lorenzen will be on about a 50 pitch limit tonight. I don’t see how that is possible and thought that, like Steve noted, he would get 70-75 pitches as a limit. Fifty and he could be out after 3 innings and one AB. That won’t be much of an audition and frankly that would really suck if it is only 50.
    That is the Reds Way, wasted opportunities.

    • Nick Carrington

      50 makes no sense because he’s thrown at least 60 twice this season.

      • WVRedlegs

        I may have read his tweet a tad wrong and missed the if. “if he’s on a pitch count of somewhere around 50 pitches, probably only going to get 1 AB regardless.” The if gives it a different slant. Its a little ambiguous. So hopefully he gets 5 innings in at least.

  17. WVRedlegs

    Geno Suarez is really slumping here in September. In 16 games he is hitting a measly .208/.323/.340/.663 with 1 2B, 2 HR, and 5 RBI. He is letting the RBI title slip away. He is 4 behind the leader now. Suarez gets a rest tonight with Dixon at 3B.
    Scooter tied with Yelich for NL batting average lead at .318 going into tonight.
    Votto still way out in front in NL OBP lead at .424.
    Yelich and Cain lead the NL in fWAR. Reds won’t even come close this winter to make 2 additions like that.

    • Jack

      That’s what happens when the coach runs you out there every day in the dog days of summer.

      • roger garrett

        Riggs wants to win as many as he can because he needs a job.He will play the guys in the running for individual honors until they fall flat on their face because he knows if they win he wins.

    • Jim Walker

      I was doing some quick math on Suarez last night. He has played in 132 games and had 568 PAs.

      Now recall he sat out just short of 3 weeks in April with the thumb injury. Just quick and dirty math, he missed 16 games. Add that to the 132 he’s played in and the count is148 with 11 games left counting Tuesday night. So if I counted correctly, he has sat out 3 games all season since he came back from the DL in April. That’s craziness.

      Then I divided the PA’s by games played (568/132) to determine he is averaging 4.3 PAs a game. So not only is he playing every day, he plays virtually every inning.

      It is no wonder hen is fried and it is showing on both sides of the ball.

  18. Old-school

    In fairness- Riggleman trying to help him win RBi title. Also…he had no AS break either. He’s on fumes. With Senzel- no excuse next year.
    I don’t think any player should start more than 150 games and always get 3 games off a month plus the no game days.

    • greenmtred

      Also in fairness, I’d bet that guys like Suarez (we know this is true of Votto) want to play every day. I’d also bet that most, if not all of them want to win every game. They are by nature competitve. It isn’t just a Riggleman conspiracy.