The Short Version: Why isn’t this season over yet?

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (64-87) 0 8 2
Milwaukee Brewers (86-65) 8 11 0
W: Miley (5-2) L: DeSclafani (7-6)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

The Good

The Bad
–Anthony DeSclafani wasn’t particularly sharp, but he entered the fifth inning having allowed just one run on three hits. That’s when things fell apart. By the time the third out was recorded, the Reds were losing 4-0 and the game was all but over. I’m still very much optimistic about Disco being a solid member of the rotation next year, but he’s fading a bit after a pretty good stretch of baseball (4-3 over ten starts, with a 3.95 ERA, striking out 50 while walking 13).

–The Reds were only charged with two errors — both by Eugenio Suarez — but they made at least two others that the official scorer screwed up. Incredibly shoddy performance tonight.

–Wandy Peralta and Jesus Reyes weren’t good in relief.

Not-So-Random Thoughts
–Only 11 games to go. Four losses in their last five, and I can’t wait for this season to end.

–There was one player I wanted the Reds to acquire this off-season. That player was Christian Yelich. And Yelich — who hit for the cycle today, the second time he’s done that against Cincinnati this season — is doing everything he can to make me cry every time I see him play. Thanks for letting a division rival acquire him, Reds.

–Curt Casali had a couple of hits, so that’s fine. Scooter Gennett got a hit as he tries to stay ahead of Yelich in the batting race.

–I’m pretty bullish on the Reds’ chances in 2019 — as you’ll see in my Cincinnati Magazine column later this week. But watching my team — a team that made no effort whatsoever to win in 2018 — embarrass themselves against a team that actually went all-in to win last off-season, with a player the Reds should have targeted leading the charge…well, that’s a little much for me right now.

Today’s Tweets

53 Responses

  1. Sliotar

    “I’m pretty bullish on the Reds’ chances in 2019.”


    To each their own.

    I would simply suggest that everyone who feels think twice about mocking Reds executives for saying “Positive Momentum.”

    Glass houses and all that.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Until the owner backs off and lets baseball people make baseball decisions, or even better, sell off the team, I’m not sure I’ll be bullish on the Reds chances. For all his talk of bringing winning baseball back, much of that team was built on the work of his predecessors.

      • Scott C

        Walt Jockey handprints are all over this team and he still has the owners ear. So the only real shot it seems at having a legitimate baseball team is if Castellini sells the team, because I think he is going to continue to listen to Walt.

  2. Rut

    Chad you fool… take out the games against the Reds and Yelich is nothing but an overpaid Scooter!

    Just kidding, I “cried and peed” when the Reds twiddled their thumbs and the best player on Team USA from the WBC just slid up to Brewtown.

    Oh yeah, my bad, the thumbs weren’t twiddling, they were stuffed up their @$%*&$!!!!

  3. kmartin

    It may be the case that DeSclafani is simply worn out given that he was injured last year. However, looking at his numbers since August 23 makes me wonder if he is injured and the Reds are not revealing what is really going on with him.

    • jazzmanbbfan

      If he is injured, and the Reds know about it and continue to send him out there, it would constitute gross misuse of an asset I assume they’re counting on for next year. I’ve wondered if it is just fatigue from not pitching the past couple of years or if there is something more going on that he hasn’t revealed to the medical staff (his bad if that’s the case). Hopefully just fatigue. Brantley on the TV broadcast was guessing that he’s just not trusting his stuff and trying to throw too hard the 2nd time through the lineup.

  4. Sliotar

    Really looking forward to Senzel, likely the best infield defender in the entire Reds organization, fighting for playing time in the OF in 2019…


    Peraza and Gennett play Keystone Cops in the middle infield.

    If Hamilton stays (who says he isn’t coming back?)…how much will Senzel even play?

    Remember when Winker would get called up..only to sit on the bench?

    • David

      That’s the Reds way of winning baseball! Play your worst offensive player every night, and hope he stays forever. And sometimes he even leads off.

  5. WVRedlegs

    DeSclafani with 5.0 IP, 4 runs, and 2 HR allowed. That has been a carbon copy of his starts over the last month and a half. He is cementing a spot on the DL for 2019.
    Some on here took me to task last month when I mentioned that Christian Yelich should be in the NL MVP conversation.
    Yelich will be the NL MVP.
    And Dick Williams didn’t think enough of Yelich to make the trade. Who is in charge of this Rebuild? One Dick Williams. Or is it Jocketty? Or is it Castellini?
    That “next good Reds team” may never materialize.

    • Jim Walker

      I think it is very possible Disco is just used up. However even if that is the case continuing to use him when he is fatigued could make him more susceptible to injury. It might make sense to declare his return from a missed 2017 a successful step in a progression and shut him down.

    • Matt WI

      I’m fully on board the Yelich MVP train. I missed that thread… I got your back.

  6. Turbobuckeye

    When Price was fired DW said they players needed to have a greater “sense of urgency.” We’ll see if big Bob has a sense of urgency this offseason.

    • Jim Walker

      My vote for comment of the night!

      • WVRedlegs

        Yes. I said to myself “oohhhhhh” when I read it. Maybe even comment of the year. And there have been many, many good comments this year. Big Bob and Dick Williams have painted themselves into a corner with what is left of the fan base.
        When I see a picture of Big Bob, the first thing I think of is the team owner in the movie “Major League”. Except she was a little prettier and more competent than Big Bob. Big Bob has surpassed the Wilpons and Peter Angelos as the worst team owner in MLB. That is pretty bad.

      • lwblogger2

        I’d argue Angelos is still worse. He spends money (good!) but he’s a serious meddler in the day-to-day operations and he ends up spending money poorly (Chris Davis contract).

    • Michael E

      Well, we have been wondering that for two straight off-seasons and we got crickets. I will go out on a limb and say…NO.

      I am cynical beyond repair about the paralysis in the front office and in Bob’s owner suite. I am all but certain they’ll find a way to overpay a BELOW-average SP in Harvey so we can have SP4 and SP5’s in our SP1, SP2 and SP3 spots with no payroll flexibility.

      • David

        Eric Milton redux. Bob and his silent sidekick Walt will continue to make the key decisions that will keep the Reds in the cellar for the foreseeable future.
        Dick Williams, son of one of the ownership partners, is safe in his job to speak the correct platitudes to encourage the dwindling fan base.
        This is Reds winning baseball.

  7. Michael E

    Yeah, last I checked, he doesn’t pitch. I would love to have Yelich, sure, but I’d rather not have him and trade half our current lineup if we could put together a top 5 MLB rotation.

  8. davy13

    Even if those prospects had to be traded to acquire Yelich, they are just prospects not realizations. Other than Suarez, what other prospect acquired by the Reds in the last few years has turned into a bonafide All-Star. Is it guaranteed that Senzel or Trammell will have the same productivity as Yelich? Yelich is still young, entering his prime, and contract-friendly for a few more years. So yeah I want the Reds to build a team with really good players – Yelich would have been a significant piece to that winning puzzle.

  9. davy13

    “There was one player I wanted the Reds to acquire this off-season. That player was Christian Yelich. And Yelich — who hit for the cycle today, the second time he’s done that against Cincinnati this season — is doing everything he can to make me cry every time I see him play. Thanks for letting a division rival acquire him, Reds.”

    Chad, my sentiments exactly. I feel your pain. Misery loves company.

    I am tired of these comments that essentially claim that the Reds are better off not to have acquired Yelich. Maybe in Bizarro/MLB world that would be the case. I think in any sane situation would consider having Yelich in the lineup is a major upgrade to what we have now and probably of most of the team’s prospects. Which one of the prospects that the Reds have is a guarantee All-Star and possible batting title champion?

    The reasoning that the team’s record would not have made much of a difference this season is unproven and irrelevant. Many close games were lost because of a lack of run production and clutch hitting. Replace BillyH with Yelich in the lineup (esp with RISP) and there would have been a really big difference according to the numbers alone. For the sake of argument, let’s suppose that the team’s record would not have changed much with Yelich. A ball club with a genuine winning culture needs a plurality of very good players. Yelich could have been another big building-block piece. As a Reds fan, I would rather see the team in the Brewers place contending for the playoffs after trading for and signing good players, like Yelich. In the meantime, Reds fandom’s cause for celebration is not having another +100 loss season (without Yelich). Yeah! Go Reds!

    • lost11found

      Problem is that if you thought that the brewers overpaid for yelich, its hard to justify torches and pitchforks now. Sure you can be disapointed in hindsight but getting upset by it comes across a little hollow.

      • WVRedlegs

        No one I know. The thing is, the Reds could have given up a much better package without giving up Senzel. Sure Greene would have then had to be included, but what the heck. He is now shelved with elbow problems and facing possible TJ surgery. And he was about 5 years away from the Majors anyway.
        The Reds Way==Wasted opportunities !!

      • lwblogger2

        I still don’t think Green would have gotten it done as the headliner. They wanted players closer the MLB ready. I think Senzel or Winker would have had to have headlined the deal.

      • Jim Walker

        I suspect Senzel then Greene or Trammell, If Greene add in Siri; if Trammell add in Santillan. Also maybe an additional middling arm.

      • lost11found

        Our very own Chad Dotson expressed some reservations when the trade went down. Another thing we can blame him for perhaps. 🙂

    • Scott C

      And he was affordable and controllable. Makes it even worse.

  10. Matt Hendley

    And i am getting tired of everyone opening there legs for yelich. Seriously. The Reds need pitching, starting pitching, at this point they are going through the motions. Billy does need to go yes. Trade him, and then use an internal option. We are not getting yelich, we are better off. The brewers will be competitive this year and next and then find they will have to rebuild cause the farm is empty. Cause cain is old. For the record, nick senzel will be rookie of the year 2019 and taylor trammel should finish ROY top 3 for 2020. Will combine for a total war higher then yelich in 2020. Will cost one tenth the cost. Will be controlled into 2025 or longer. Thats why we didnt get yelich so we could finish with 78 wins this year. DA

    • jazzmanbbfan

      “For the record”? Wow I wish I had your optimism. We don’t even know if he can get through a full season without an injury or vertigo sidlining him.

    • Davy13

      Man, you must be the best stock broker on Wall Street or you should apply to be one, since you are so sure of your speculations. I hope we live long enough to see these prophecies come to pass, IF they come true. I know that Cubs fans are enjoying the team’s forlorn success, but ask any of the long-suffering old-timers whether they would have preferred to see this a lot sooner or rather a lot later (80+ years later).

      Don’t get me wrong. The Reds have what they have. As a fan, I hope you’re right and the team finds great success with the current list of top prospects.

  11. Klugo

    Yelich has a lot of team control left too; but I dont think I wouldve wanted to part with Senzel or Greene for him.

    • David

      I would have done that in a heartbeat. I would wager Greene has less than a 50/50 chance to make it to the majors. Senzel might be an injury prone player.
      Yelich could win the NL MVP this year.

      • Matt WI

        Yup… any time a team wants Greene so they can pay for his eventual TJ, more power to them.

      • Hotto4Votto

        Starting to feel this way as well. If we’re going to target a top of rotation cost controlled pitcher at some point, Greene is the prospect I’d be most willing to part with as a headliner. He may have the highest ceiling of the group, but the riskiest road to get to that ceiling.

    • big5ed

      I remain flabbergasted by the Greene hatred here. He was the youngest guy in the league, and did fine. And if he has TJ surgery, I’d recommend he go to the same guy who did Walker Buehler’s TJ surgery.

  12. Jack

    This team isn’t making the playoffs next year. They couldn’t sign enough pitchers to pass the rest of the central teams. They sign Tim Adelmans and Scott Feldmans. This off season will be quiet and a joke.

  13. VaRedsFan

    The Brewers gave their top prospect, and two prospects outside of the top 10….not their top 3 prospects like you are suggesting.

    So no, They would still have 2 of the 3 players you listed if a similar deal was made.

  14. Redgoggles

    Yelich would have been an awesome addition, but I’m not finding his pitching statistics? So, he helps our offense. That’s not the problem…..for 5+ years and counting.

    • BigRedMike

      Reds are going to keep Hamilton and Gennett for around $20 million in 2019, I am not finding their pitching statistics. Reds have cost controlled players to replace them and that money could be used for pitching.

  15. Bill j

    As some have said, why would a pitcher want to come to Cincinnati where a fly ball is a home run or where the defense looks like a colander.

  16. lost11found

    Sorry Chad, but your disappointment over Yelich seems like Bill Hall syndrome at this point. You wanted the reds to get Yelich but were not sure if you would have been happy to give up what the brewers gave up.

    The numbers he put up this year against the reds is salt in the wound, but it’s water under the bridge at this point. No point in ruining your day over it.

    Seriously though, when was the last time a player had two cycles in a season, let alone against the same team. A baseball quirk to be sure.

  17. Hotto4Votto

    Doesn’t it seem now that all the extension talk of DeSclafani this offseason was premature at this point? This is exactly why I want to see a full season of health (and hopefully production) before I even start going down that road.

  18. WVRedlegs

    What would the 2018 Reds have looked like if they had successfully traded for Yelich, and made a minor free agent signing of a pitcher, say like Miles Mikolas that the Cardinals got?
    It would have set them up to be contenders with the possible addition of a pitcher at the trade deadline. And the Reds would not have traded for Matt Harvey when they did. And Riggleman probably isn’t the interim manager.
    It would have cost some prospects, maybe Greene and Siri or Trammell and a couple of others. Plus about a 2 year $17.5M deal with Mikolas, who actually signed for 2 years and $15.5M with the Cards.
    But the Reds front office was content to see both go to division rivals instead. Two sensible moves and the Reds would have been a much different, and much better team.

    • lwblogger2

      Gotta admit, you nailed the Mikolas signing. I wasn’t so sure he’d be decent, let alone actually good.

  19. roger garrett

    Going through the motions is all that they are doing right now.Unless Disco is hurt I am not worried about him.The front office has a lot of work to do and if they do it then I can be bullish as well for 2019.Falling in love with players is the problem on this team and it has been for awhile.How could anybody be untradeable,most have been here for at least two years,on a team that is so bad.At the same time we have a top 5 prospect that has no place to play in the infield so he is learning to play the outfield to join that just dumb rotation.We must say good bye to Billy and package some of these players that are loved so much,they are good remember and get some starting pitching.Iggy is good and affordable as is Hughes and Hernandez not to mention all of these young power arms that weren’t really given a chance.Just for fun,the Duvall trade and the Winker/Scott injuries gave us a chance by default I guess to see Ervin play.Based on what he has done he could hit 270 with 15 to 20 homers and play a good enough outfield along with Scott and Winker.Of course Billy will return.Senzel will be in the 4 or 5 man platoon,the rest of our good players will return at the same positions doing the same thing while we pick up pitchers others throw away and lose 90+ again.But count me in,Lord willing,as being a fan for life regardless.

  20. big5ed

    My take on Yelich is that the Marlins were utter nuts to trade him to anybody. Plus, there was a lot of skepticism about Lewis Brinson, the centerpiece of the deal, even if he was rated high on some Top XX prospect lists (which are inherently ridiculous).

    The Marlins violated Big Ed’s Rule #1 of being General Manager: Never Trade An Excellent Contract. They correctly dumped G. Stanton to whoever would pay the contract, and I understand their off-loading Marcel Ozuna as he hit his high-dollar arbitration year. It made below-freezing sense to trade Yelich at all.

    The whole point of being a GM is to collect excellent contracts. The Reds have one in Suarez. Barnhart’s is close, and the rights to Winker, Reed, Senzel and a couple of others are very favorable for the Reds. The Marlins had one, and gave it away.

    There isn’t much point to lamenting the Reds’ not trading for Yelich, especially if you don’t know what the Marlins asked for. You might as well cry over their taking Mike Leake in the 2009 draft, instead of a kid from Millville (NJ) Senior High School named Mike Trout.

  21. WVRedlegs

    How could the Reds have not beaten the Brewers trade package for Yelich, even without giving up Senzel. The Brewers traded:
    1. OF Lewis Brinson, 367 PA’s, .203/.243/.354 with 15 BB and 107 K at the ML level. Brutal.
    2. OF Monte Harrison, 583 PA’s, .240/.316/.399 with 44 BB and 215 K at AA level. Much speed and
    power potential with Harrison, but 215 K? That is a 37% K%. Brutal.
    3. 2B Isan Diaz, 356 PA’s, .245/.365/.418 at AA. 155 PA’s, .204/.281/.358 at AAA. Combined he had
    68 BB, 140 K.
    4. RHP Jordan Yamamoto, 13 starts at A+, AA, and a R league rehab assignment. Didn’t start his
    season until May 27th due to injury. Went on DL for 1 month in July, came back with the 3 rehab
    appearances in August, and had 1 AA start before being shut down for the year. He had very good
    pitching numbers though. He just didn’t get on the field much, 13 starts and 68.2 IP.

    For one, it looks like Milwaukee unloaded some very high K% and low BB% hitters on the Marlins.
    Secondly, a much better package could have been offered by the Reds front office if they had tried. OF Jose Siri would have been a better prospect than either Brinson or Harrison. Shed Long or Dilson Herrera would have been a better 2B prospect than Diaz. And Greene, or Santillan, would have been far superior to Yamamoto. The Reds would have to had a better 4th player than Brinson to this package and that would not have been hard to come up with. But the Reds Dick Williams bowed out very early in the sweepstakes and the Marlins Derek Jeter didn’t have a Reds prospect package to examine and compare to his other offers.
    Just flat out stupidity from the Reds front office on this one. Williams holds unproven prospects in a higher regard than a league MVP candidate.
    And the sad part is, that there will no player close to Yelich that the Reds could acquire this winter. Dick Williams always a day late and a dollar short.

    • big5ed

      Well, obviously, if the Marlins knew beforehand that Brinson would hit 203/.243/.354, then they would not have done the deal. Hindsight is 20/20.

      Siri was not regarded as a better prospect that Brinson at the time. In the ratings in early 2017 (, for example, Brinson was rated #13; Siri was not rated. The next season, after the trade, Fangraphs had Brinson listed as #13, and Siri at #93; Isan Diaz was #87.

      So, it is reasonable to think that the Reds would have had to give up Nick Senzel and Jose Siri and somebody else to get Yelich. Maybe even more; we don’t know and never will know, so there is no point in worrying about it.

      When (if??) Senzel and Trammell are putting up big numbers in 2020, not dealing for Yelich will look a lot better.

      • lwblogger2

        I think Doug Gray said something like Senzel, Trammel, Long, and Lopez as a similar package to what the Brewers offered. To me, that was too steep.

    • davy13

      I wholeheartedly agree. I live in Miami so I follow the Marlins as my 2nd favorite team. I hated that they traded away Yelich, but I was dumbfounded that the Reds did not acquire him. During the offseason, I came on this blog harping on the fact that Yelich was ripe for the taking, because the Jeter’s #1 priority to his investors was to unload contracts/reduce salary payroll (that was highly reported in the local news) and good prospects in return were the sweetener but not the priority.

      Yeah, I believe that the Reds could’ve bested the Brewers offer without sacrificing all of their top prospects. But remember that a prospect is potential unfulfilled. Yelich is proven. Anyway, after the season is over I will stop crying over spilled milk. Wah!