Recently, I started re-reading The Art of Fielding by Chad Harbach. In some abstract way, the impetus behind that decision was that I wanted to start writing a baseball novel and how else to pump up your ambition than to read the best baseball novel of all time? (Yes, I will consider The Natural an acceptable answer as well.) Instead, I have found myself mostly thinking about Billy Hamilton, the very real, non-fiction centerfielder for the Cincinnati Reds, and not about fictional characters of my own device.

To offer a refresher: In The Art of Fielding, Henry Skrimshander is an otherworldly defensive shortstop, anticipating where balls will end up before the bat has even made contact. He can’t hit when Westish College catcher Mike Schwartz first sees him, but who cares, he’s a savant. After two years with a college weight room and six chapters into the book, Henry is suddenly hitting .358 and has made himself a bonafide D3 prospect.

Oh, if only it were that easy for Billy Hamilton.

Nick Kirby wrote extensively about Billy earlier this week, touching on his offense, his defense, and his baserunning value, but I just want to dive into the defense. Specifically, does the art of fielding matter much at all?

According to Fangraphs, Billy Hamilton has been worth 5 Defensive Runs Saved this season with a 7.4 UZR/150. Among all Major League outfielders, Billy is tied for 16th for DRS and in 13th for UZR/150. Both strong and good numbers, but not nearly as strong and good as Mookie Betts (19/19.9) or JaCoby Jones (21/14.5) or Lorenzo Cain (17/10.9). All three of those guys also have the added benefit of being decent to good hitters.

These are only statistics from part of one season, and defensive statistics are unreliable. If you take the longview, Billy is ninth for DRS and fourth for UZR/150 among outfielders since 2015. He’s a good defender! Just not the best, sadly.

Now that we can move past the fallacy that Billy is some unparalleled superman in centerfield, there’s one argument that keeps cropping up for why he should continue taking starts from more accomplished hitters. Namely, the Reds’ young pitchers are prone to giving up lots of contact and Billy negates some fraction, presumably a large fraction, of that contact. (This sentence will hereafter be called our “test statement.”)

To test if that statement holds its water, let’s break out some old-fashioned defensive range stats. And yes by old-fashioned I mean created in 2007. Ancient, basically.

BIZ, RZR, and OOZ — rudimentary measures that seek to quantify a player’s range. UZR and UZR/150 are both better at this particular task, but the calculations behind them confound me so to illustrate this point, I’ll use statistics I can explain. Also, UZR and UZR/150 include arm strength calculations, which I believe falls outside the realm of our test statement. If Billy is negating some contact the Reds’ pitching is giving up, he’s doing so by turning hits into outs off the bat.

Let’s start with BIZ, Balls in Zone. Every fielder has a zone on the field, in which their position is expected to field the ball 50 percent of the time. If a ball is in a player’s zone, he should theoretically be the one fielding it, if the ball is within his physical limitations.

Here are some BIZ ratings for a cherry-picked set of five centerfielders:

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Billy has the most Balls in Zone of the five! In fact, Billy has the most Balls in Zone of all MLB outfielders! Ender Inciarte and Adam Jones are tied for second for clarity, with Herrara and Cain coming much further down on the leaderboard.

The argument that Billy needs to be in centerfield because the awful Reds’ pitching leads to more fielding opportunities does have credibility then. It took Inciarte nearly 100 additional innings to have as many balls hit his way and Adam Jones, bless his soul, plays for the Orioles, who are in a similar boat as the Reds. In terms of progress of testing our statement’s validity, the first part rings true. The young Reds’ pitching does indeed give up more contact in Billy’s general direction.

Now, RZR — Revised Zone Rating. This number takes a player’s BIZ and makes it the denominator with the number of plays made on those Balls in Zone as the numerator. Here’s how our five centerfielders rank:

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 9.33.18 PM.png

Billy comes in third across this particular set. Lorenzo Cain — the aforementioned savvy-hitting and savvy-fielding centerfielder — is 17th across all MLB outfielders in RZR, with Ender Inciarte at sixth. Billy ranks 25th, a good ways down the list.

Now is as good a time as any to explain why I picked each of these centerfielders for inclusion, absent reasoning for Billy of course. Lorenzo, by virtue of his greatness in more advanced stats, was included to compare Billy to the elite class of defender. Ender Inciarte was included because he represents the closest statistical equal to Billy this season, with a 15 DRS and 6.8 UZR/150. Adam Jones and Odubel Herrera were both included because, the former for his age and the latter for his inability, they are horrible, horrible centerfielders. They are the fifth and seventh worst MLB outfielders by UZR/150, respectively.

The fraction of the contact given up by the Reds’ pitching staff that Billy negates then falls well short of his best comparison (Inciarte), noticeably short of the paradigm (Cain), and a good deal above the basement, which is a relief. By this measure, Billy is an above-average centerfielder, but not a great one.

Lastly, OOZ — Out of Zone Plays Made, and conversely, Billy’s last gasp. These are balls where a fielder makes a play out of his designated zone. They don’t factor into RZR at all, but when viewed in addition, they can indicate which fielders have exceptional range to all fields. Our contenders:

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 9.29.56 PM.png

To no one’s surprise, Adam Jones’ old legs can’t quite carry him out of centerfield anymore. Lorenzo Cain has also done serviceably ranging out of his position, but not quite to the elite level his other numbers would indicate.

As for the other three, Billy comes in third, behind one of the worst centerfielders in the sport and still well behind his contemporary. As I said earlier in the season, anything the Reds can do, the Braves can do better because it seems the Reds would be better off playing Ender Inciarte behind their young pitching than they are Billy Hamilton.

If you take it back to 2017, Billy Hamilton (9 DRS, 11.2 UZR/150) outperforms Ender Inciarte (5 DRS, 2.7 UZR/150) in almost every category, except OOZ where Billy gets spanked again, 71 to 129. Lorenzo Cain had 136 OOZ plays last season, which led the league, but his DRS lagged at 5 as well.

What I’m saying here is, defensive numbers vary season to season. In 2017, Billy Hamilton was a superb centerfielder, much better than he has been this year. He also had fewer BIZ last season with only 243 over the full year. But even with all that variance and the possibility of Billy’s defense to bounce back…

Billy’s defense doesn’t matter to the Reds in 2019 for three reasons:

  1. It’s not as irreplaceable as it’s made out to be. Ender Inciarte’s 86 wRC+ is 14 percent below average and still, it’s 18 percentage points higher than Billy’s 68 wRC+ mark! Inciarte has provided better defense this year and slightly lesser defense last year than Billy, while somewhat contributing to the lineup. Billy is not head and shoulders above the rest of the league; he’s maybe a forehead at best.
  2. For all that’s made of the awful Reds’ pitching and the importance of Billy to negate it, Billy doesn’t really negate it at all. Inciarte has made more plays on less opportunities and ranged far outside to create more opportunities for himself. For every big ticket highlight reel Billy finds himself on, he’s still failing to make a fair number of plays he could.
  3. Free agency pending, the pitching should be better making point two moot. Banking on something as volatile as defense to bail out pitching instead of just getting better pitching is the worst strategic idea I’ve heard since marching on Stalingrad in the winter. Billy could be 2017 Billy or 2018 Billy or some new defensive version of Billy in 2019. None of those alternate Billy universes will make him a) a better hitter or b) really help the pitchers in any meaningful way that some other schmuck named Phil Ervin couldn’t! (For reference, Ervin has a .947 RZR with 26 OOZ so far. His negative marks for DRS and UZR/150 come from his lacking arm and not his range.)

The Reds do not need Billy Hamilton in center to help their young pitchers because the art of fielding truly does not matter as much as scoring runs does. Never forget that Henry Skrimshander only became a legit prospect when he started hitting like Ted Williams. Defensive wizardry means nothing without a bat to back it up, but it means even less when it’s more smoke, mirrors, and confirmation bias than real magic.

42 Responses

  1. KDJ

    Very interesting . . . and I am a little surprised by the results.
    Thanks for the post.

  2. jreis

    I enjoyed the article. BIZ AND OOZ ARE cool advnaced stats that I actually can understand lol. However I have to say that Billy is our guy in center for the for seeable future. The only other guy that I see in our system hat has command of the cf position is Jose Siri and I GOT A feeling he is a couple of years away. our pitchers always say they are most comfortable with him out there roaming center and their mentality is something that is important and cannot be measured.
    Ervin, Schebler, Winker, Trammel all look like corner outfielders to me. I worry about Senzel manning center with the Vertigo issues as well.

    Yes, I wish he was a better hitter, about as much as I wish Joey was a better base runner but he is not chopped liver at the plate. he is 4 th on the team in runs scored. that aint bad for a 9 hole hitter and still scores about 50% of the time he gets on base.

    • Bill

      If Hamilton is the CF plan for the foreseeable future the Reds don’t intend to win. His bat doesn’t belong in any starting lineup. He is a game changer if used correctly as a late inning replacement and pinch runner. He also has one year left on his contract so if Schebler, Ervin, Trammell, or Senzel aren’t able to play CF the Reds should need to pay in free agency or in a trade. Choo was in CF for an entire year and the Reds won 97 games so there is no reason anyone in the OF mix besides Winker couldn’t hold down CF while they put their resources into fixing the pitching.

    • Shchi Cossack

      Hamilton has scored 71 runs in 139 games and 511 PA. He has reached base 153 times, excluding defensive errors, and has an OBP of .300. The Reds have played 147 games.

      If Hamilton was utilized strictly as a PR replacement in the 6th/7th inning and a defensive replacement after entering the game he would have reach base about 150 times as a PR plus about 30 more times as a hitter. That would put him on base about 180 times compared to his current 153 times, with the ability to score about 90 runs compared to his current 71 runs.

      Why exactly does Hamilton need to start in CF and get 4 PA every game as the worst hitter on the roster? One of the few decisions I agreed with by Dusty was his utilization of Hamilton as a PR rather than a starter when Hamilton was summoned to the MLB roster at the tail end of the 2013 season.

      • Hotto4Votto

        Good points here. Maximizing value from Hamilton if he’s still on the roster next year will be important. This seems a good place to start.

      • eric3287

        I’m going to have to disagree with your point about how Dusty utilized Billy in 2013. You may be forgetting that from the middle of August through the end of the season, the Reds starting left fielder was Ryan Ludwick. He was injured on Opening Day and once he came off the DL was gift-wrapped the starting job again. He finished the year .240/.293/.326 with a 70 wRC+. In September he hit .224/.277/.263. That was while playing bad defense in LF.

        I think there’s a decent chance the 2013 season ends differently if, once it was apparent how bad Ludwick was coming back from injury, they called Billy up in late August and stuck him in CF batting 8th/9th. You improve your LF defense with Choo replacing Ludwick, and vastly improve your CF defense with Billy replacing Choo. Those two moves alone more than make up for any offense you might have lost from Ludwick to Billy (and honestly, it wouldn’t have been that much). Even if BBilly replicated 2015, his worst year statistically (53 wRC+), that’s not terribly far off from what Ludwick provided.

  3. Steve Mancuso

    Confirmation bias and nightly fluffing by Thom Brennaman.

    Great post, Wes.

  4. JimHeath

    Is OOZ generated by Statcast now or is it done by the stringer doing the game (human)? If it is not Statcast then maybe it would be interesting to see home vs away as the human in Cincinnati may be less generous, or just not as good as, other humans doing it at other parks.

    Also, OOZ seems like it would rely heavily on who is playing the corner outfield positions. If a team has two corner outfielders with limited range, then the centerfielder is going to have to get some balls that another centerfieder who is playing with corners with more range would not have to get or even have the chance to get.

    • Wesley Jenkins

      To the first point, I have no idea actually. And that’s something worth investigating, you’re right.

      To the second, I agree OOZ does depend mightily on the corners too. Which points to why Odubel has as many OOZ as he does (Rhys Hoskins, the left fielder, is not fleet of foot himself.) Though, this line of thinking also works against Billy because a year of Winker, Schebler and Ervin around him does not “good” corner outfielders make

      • Still a Red

        I would think that beyond range of the corner outfielders, location also comes into play regarding their ability to get to balls outside Billy’s BIZ, taking away from Billy’s OOZ. Maybe the small confines of GABP affect that too.

      • greenmtred

        I don’t think of Schebler or Ervin as having limited range for corner outfielders. They’re both pretty fast. Does that not translate to covering their positions?

  5. Klugo

    Just trade him or bench him, already!

  6. Bill j

    As I said I think Billy is more interested in making running and diving catches than just playing centerfield.

  7. WVRedlegs

    Nice article. Gets you to think it is possible to let go of BHam. I have been thinking some about Inciarte over the last few weeks. If Acuna is going to be their CF next year, where does that leave Inciate? And would the Braves entertain the thought of trading him? Markakis is a free agent after this year. Even if they re-sign Markakis that would leave a hole in the Braves OF. There have been some rumors that the Braves would like to upgrade in power over Inciarte. They like Acuna’s power for CF and would like a 25-30 HR corner OF opposite Markakis. It is like Inciarte will be the odd man out, Acuna over Inciarte in CF, Markakis over Inciarte in one corner OF spot, and a new corner OF. What if the Braves sign Bryce Harper for that OF spot? Or the Braves could sign Manny Machado and then move Carmargo or Swanson to the OF. Braves are said to be going after one or the other in free agency this winter.
    If the Braves make Inciarte available, what could the Reds possibly offer them that they don’t have? Greene with a hurt elbow and Senzel are both overpays and won’t work for the Reds.
    Georgia native OF Taylor Trammell headlining a package may have to be it.
    Inciarte has 3 years left on his contract with the Braves and a team option for a 4th year, all very affordable. He is owed $5.0M in 2019, $7.0M in 2020, $8.0M in 2021, and a team option for $9.0M in 2022 with a $1.0M buyout. He is owed $21.0M over the next 3 years, or $29.0 M over the next 4 years if the option is exercised.
    Inciarte is 2 months younger than Hamilton.
    Inciarte is hitting .260/.317/.379 this year. He had a down first half and played with an injury. And he has had a good rebound second half.
    Inciate has averaged a line of .298/.351/.395 over the prior 2 seasons with the Braves. He had a little higher line 3 years prior with Arizona.
    Inciarte is a true leadoff hitter. He has a career line of .294/.342/.394 in 2139 PA’ from the leadoff spot.
    It would be an upgrade over Hamilton in CF.

    • Sabr Chris

      But is Inciarte a big enough upgrade to justify trading one of our better prospects who could be a better option in a few years or used in a deal for a pitcher which is the bigger team need? I’d say no.

      • MrRed

        I agree, Chris.This should be a resounding NO. Inciarte, I believe, is a better defensive CF than BH and he brings a better bat to the lineup. But he’s still not a good hitter himself and I don’t think his skillset ages that well over the coming years. Why would the Reds give up possibly their best prospect for that?

  8. doofus

    Wes, nice observations and good work!

    Either the Reds Analytical staff needs to start reading your columns or whoever is suppressing their findings needs to go away. For the Reds sure haven’t been using the data available to them to build a roster.

  9. Hotto4Votto

    Very nice article. Real informative and easy to follow.

    I do think upgrading the offense in CF should be a big priority this offseason.

  10. gusnwally

    Billy is obviously a poor hitter. Ridiculous to bat him leadoff constantly. But anyone who actually believes he has only saved 5 runs this year is a total doofus. Or someone who does not watch Reds baseball.

    • Shchi Cossack

      Hamilton has 0 catches with 0% probability, 3 catches with 1-10% probability & 3 catches with 10-40% probability. Hamilton also has 12 assists. That’s a total of just 18 possible plays to prevent a run. I think about 30% is probably a good approximation for hits producing a run. That falls right in line with 5 defensive runs saved.

      Hamilton provides a lot of excitement and entertainment roaming CF, but his actual defensive value is grossly over estimated.

      • Still a Red

        If we take specific events rather than some general non-event data, his 6 catches may have saved more than 6 runs (or less) depending on how many people were on base and where when he made those catches.

      • greenmtred

        nd it’s also impossible to know what would have happened subsequent to those catches, with the other team having one less out.

      • MrRed

        But we still must account for that fact that the Reds are running out one of the (if not THE) worst hitter in MLB nearly every day. His defense, no matter how great you think it is, does not come close to compensating for the runs he is costing this team.

      • greenmtred

        I’ve come around to your point of view, MRRED, particularly because Billy’s defense and baserunning are visiibly less formidible than they have been.

  11. old-school

    With today’s news that Nick Senzel is playing OF in the Reds Instructional League, the 2019 plan seems clearer. Assuming health for all, by about April 25th the lineup could be:

    Schebler CF
    Senzel RF
    Votto 1b
    Suarez 3b
    Gennett 2B
    Winker LF
    Barnhart C
    Peraza SS

    Hamilton and Ervin are back up OF. Hamilton plays a lot of late innings and business day specials. Ervin plays a lot against lefties.
    Casali is back up C
    Blandino is utility infielder and back up SS. If he’s not ready, its Dixon as he is more versatile than Herrera. That’s why Herrera isn’t playing. He’s not in the plans. Senzel or Suarez are emergency shortstops until Blandino is back. If Blandino isn’t ready for a chunk of 2019, look for a FA back up SS signing like Alcides Escobar and both Dixon and Herrera go through waivers.

  12. Bill

    Is Dixon really more versatile? I know he has more experience in the OF, but I assume that is because Herrera was always starting at 2B and 3B. I have always heard Dixon had poor defense.
    Now that Herrera is out of options and the third in line for 2B/3B, unless he is traded, it makes sense to give him some more chances in the OF. I am really surprised he seems to be the odd man out with his pedigree and only being 24.

    • Old-school

      Dixon and Herrera are both marginal 25th roster insurance guys. Scooter is staying. Senzel is playing. Blandino is the only backup SS when healthy.

      • Sabr Chris

        I’d expect Herrera to stick over Dixon, unless he’s moved as piece in in a big trade or exchanged for an out of options pitcher the Reds want to take a flyer on.

      • Jim Walker

        I agree. Herrera will either be moved in a trade or stick over Dixon.

        Blandino’s knee work was a major deal. Don’t know that it was (or wasn’t) as big a deal as Cozart’s but it was far more than a simple scope job. He may or may not be ready by spring and may or may not be the same player as before.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Dixon also have options, so I’d expect Herrera to put in extra time becoming more versatile this offseason if not traded.

  13. Dave Roemerman

    Wes, top-notch statistical analysis! Too bad it leads to a disappointing outcome. I’d be interested in seeing you run the same numbers on our offensive CF, Ervin.

    And SCHICOSSACK, nice look at how Hamilton would get on base more (and score more) if he let others attempt to reach on his behalf. My only worry there is that fewer plate appearances totally craters his already poor offensive skills. I could easily see him falling off a cliff to a sub-50 wRC+ with sporadic and late appearances, against setup guys and closers, most likely. I think both Wes’ article and the pinch runner point show us who should be starting and who should be subbing in, airmailed cutoff men be dammed.

    • Bill

      Fewer ABs may cause a drop off in his hitting, but if he comes in during the eighth inning as a pinch runner he wouldnt have too many at bats.

  14. Mocat

    Going off topic. What about the Reds “sitting” Scooter for the rest of the year to protect his batting title? He has enough plate appearances to qualify, and a .0074 lead over Cain/Yelich. Assuming in 16 remaining games each gets 4 plate appearances per game, that is 48 more for each. If Yelich hits .400 for the rest of the year he will still be .0002 behind Scooter. If Cain hits .400 he would win the batting title by .0003. The strategy could be tweeked if Cain/Yelich get on a run, but a few days off for Scooter could be a good thing (or blow up on them since he seems to be on a hot streak). A batting title is forever. It might be a bright spot in an otherwise dark year. Thoughts?

    • Bill

      I believe that tyoe of thing is frowned upon. I remember people being upset in the past when the guy leading sat the last game of the year to preserve his BA. Sitting for 14 games would take that to a whole new level and isn’t something I see Gennett being in favor of. I would personally think less of a player who did this just to win a meaningless stat competition

      • Mocat

        I certainly understand the thought process of questioning a guy sitting. The reason I ask is because old school ball players played every day. Today it seems like players tend to get more days off, either for rest, or platoon type advantages. Scooter has played in 141 games, Cain 127, Yelich 131, Zobrist 123. Scooter has 539 AB’s, Cain 488, Yelich 520, Zobrist 396. Scooter has more games played, more PA’s, more at bats, and more hits. So much of our conversations are stats driven it just makes me wonder what we should be considering purely based on comparable stats, and what we still view as old school rules within the game. All three not named Scooter took essentially two weeks off (or were on the DL, I did not look) during the season.

    • eric3287

      Oh my goodness, I hope the Reds do this. There would be nothing more on brand for the Reds to do than to sit Scooter now, not to let a young guy play (it would most certainly be Dixon starting), but to make sure a player on the team wins an award that is about 30 years out dated. Just think of the amount of bobbleheads they could sell next year.

  15. greenmtred

    My quibble: It isn’t just bad pitchers who need good fielders behind them. All pitchers depend upon defense, since strikeouts do not comprise half of the outs in most games. It isn’t that Billy is irreplaceable, in my view; it’s that he is one of two better than average defenders among the starters (Tucker being the other). The infield in its entirety doesn’t make it to mediocre, and Winker might make a barely serviceable left-fielder. That’s a tough hill to climb for any pitcher, since it results in prolonged innings, unearned runs and more pressure situations. The Reds need hitting, yes, and they need pitching, yes, yes, but they need decent defense, too.

  16. daytonnati

    Wes – Thanks for the reference to “The Art of Fielding”, one of the great sports novels of all-time.

    “Thoughtless being is attained by everyone, the return to thoughtless being by a very few”.

    Perhaps we should copies of Aparicio Rodriguez to all the Reds pitchers??