The Cincinnati Reds (62-83) will look to continue their domination of the defending NL champs, the Los Angels Dodgers (78-66) at 6:40 PM. The Reds beat the Dodgers to 9-5 last evening to improve to 5-0 against them in 2018. The Reds were however eliminated from the 2018 postseason last night when the Cardinals won.

The Dodgers really need these final two games in Cincinnati. They are now 1.5 back behind the Rockies in the NL West, and 2.0 games behind the Cardinals for the second wild-card spot. Can the Reds play spoiler again?

Starting Pitchers

This might surprise some, but Luis Castillo’s xFIP (3.71) is the 22nd best in the MLB out of the 69 qualifiers. It is has been a disappointing season overall full of inconsistency for Castillo, but his good strikeout and walk rates are encouraging going into 2019. His only career start against the Dodgers came on May 13th of this season: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. He allowed homers to Puig and Grandal in that contest.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is really good starting pitcher when he can stay healthy. He has a career 3.27 ERA/3.40 FIP since he came over from the KBO league in 2013. He has only been able to make 36 starts over the last 3 seasons due to a variety of injuries. He has been very good in his 11 starts this season. The Reds have done fairly well against him, as he has a 4.30 ERA in 5 career starts. He did take a perfect game into the 8th inning against the Reds in 2014. The Reds have never been on the wrong side of a perfect game.

Starting Lineups

Dodgers Reds
1. Joc Pederson (LF)
2. Max Muncy (2B)
3. Manny Machado (3B)
4. Cody Bellinger (1B)
5. Yasmani Grandal (C)
6. Alex Verdugo (CF)
7. Chris Taylor (SS)
8. Yasiel Puig (RF)
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu (P)
1. Scott Schebler (RF)
2. Jose Peraza (SS)
3. Scooter Gennett (2B)
4. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
5. Phillip Ervin (LF)
6. Curt Casali (C)
7. Brandon Dixon (1B)
8. Gabriel Guerrero (CF)
9. Luis Castillo (P)

48 Responses

  1. WVRedlegs

    Joey Votto has hit .364 off of Ryu and isn’t in the lineup tonight. Did Votto stay out late last night celebrating his birthday? Reds don’t have an off day until all the way until Thursday of this week. Two days. Joey needed an off day today. Right.
    Riggle-insanity at work.

  2. Hanawi

    Well a few things are obvious from the Reds’ standpoint. 1. They have no faith that Ervin can play even a passable CF. 2. They think Dixon has more future value to the club than Herrera. 3. They are going to offer Scooter an extension as they see him as a core component of the club.

  3. docproctor

    If Joey isn’t injured, then sitting him tonight in front of a home crowd (albeit a small one) is crazy–especially since he’s heated up lately.
    And c’mon–this is a good chance to see what Ervin can do in CF.
    Rig is driving me nuts.

    • doofus

      The way Castellini meddles, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was informing Riggleman who should play and where.

  4. Old-school

    Tomorrow is a 1235 start against a righty pitcher. Votto and Barnhart were both going to sit one and Hamilton will be back tomorrow as well.

  5. Wayne nabors

    Votto justs seems to sit at the most in opportune times,never understand riggs reasoning

  6. Jim Walker

    I’m not inclined to put a lot of faith behind xFIP particularly when a pitcher pitches his home games at GABP. Now if xFIP used the average FB/HR rate for all pitchers when pitching at GABP (or whatever park a game was being played for each HR hit) instead of the league average FB/HR rate, that might change my opinion of it. This is likely an example of how team analytic departments are extending metrics.

    The other side of the coin is that Castillo with 27 HR allowed is tied for 60th of 68 qualifiers on the home runs allowed list (lower number is better than higher number). At least he isn’t being paid as much as Zack Greinke who has allowed the same number of HRs.

  7. Old-school

    Alex Verdugo starting in CF for LA tonight.
    The Reds need him as their CF of the future . If Garrett is a reliever now, trade him and Shed Long and the OF is done.

  8. Matt Hendley

    One of the articles just out. Sitting votto came from higher then him, blames it in part to “expanded rosters” sounds like FO shenanigans to me. Plus erwin is a 4th OF on a hot streak. Scooter is in the future and herrera is getting traded.

    • Rut

      Herrera traded? For what, bag of beans? Bc unless you let him play to show value you get less than even the proverbial bag o balls…

    • Aaron Bradley

      This is the time to jockey for draft position and that is what they are doing. I don’t necessarily blame them.. it’s not throwing a game per se, but we are better off losing at this point.
      Apparently Riggelman got the memo… it is apparent to me Riggs has tied his fate to this franchise, this is it for him… if he would be less inclined to bunt I wouldn’t mind letting him stay on for another year he def. had things much improved after Price was shown the exit.

    • Jim Walker

      For the entire season counting his terrible April/ May before he was sent down and made the adjustments needed, Ervin’s wRC+ is 113 that’s a pretty long hot streak at 13% better than league average.

      Since he was brought up on July 20, his wRC+ is 130 over 156 PAs. That’s also getting to be a sizable run to be written off as a mere “hot streak”.

      • Matt Hendley

        He had a slump when he returned, i remember that for sure. He was hot, then he wasn’t then he was again. his glove isn’t good enough for center. We all remember the Cut off problems. But he is a RH bat, with considerable power, a young chris Heisey, just much better. Certainly a future with the reds. Just not in center.

  9. Matt Hendley

    Fay article, the Herrera bit is conjecture from me. Votto portion is in there

  10. Aaron Bradley

    BTW Pederson leading off for Dodgers is the guy I was talking about trading for,,, he can play CF… he has power and some speed… he was their 4th OF for awhile maybe he won a job now I don’t know… but the Reds need to be far more proactive in seeking trades, they just sit back and wait for stuff to fall in their lap. We need pitching for instance, and a team like the DOdgers has plenty of it, if we gave them Iglesias before they got Madsen we could have gotten a decent return.

    • Matt Hendley

      He hasn’t won the Job, actually he has been trending downward, not by cincinnati standards of course but he lost what was a guaranteed starting job at the beginning of the year

  11. Seat101

    So where does Jose play next year?

    I say shortstop. Although he be OK at second and passable center, I think

      • Seat101

        What kind of value do you think he Hass to another team

      • Matt Hendley

        he can be their error prone SS, while we get their #2 Pitcher he was part of a Package for

  12. Seat101

    I assume we’re going to try to extend Scooter.

  13. Sliotar

    Welsh, trying to knock analytics….

    “Verdugo isn’t one of those uber prospects.”

    FanGraphs from July…Verdugo #1 ranked prospect in Dodgers system

    FG “With most organizations, Verdugo would be a starting outfielder — and would have been since the beginning of the year. With the Dodgers, though, he’s a handy player to have at triple-A to fill in for injuries. He’s an extremely advanced hitter for his age, as witnessed by his .352 average, and he rarely gives away an at-bat. ”

    Chad’s article about apathy towards the Reds is spot on, If these 2 hacks on TV were in a market where people still cared about the local team…they would be replaced eventually.

    • Matt Hendley

      The Son of the Best Radio announcer in Baseball, and a world series hero being replaced? GTFOH, only when they retire. THom is a good announcer. and Welsh knows what he is talking about. After all the Scouting reports are also where the Ervin as a 4th OF reports originated for the reds. JS

      • Bill

        Thom is horrible and his father has been an angry old man spewing nonsense for the last decade

      • doofus

        I’ll be kind, Thom Brennaman is a bumbling, boob.

      • Matt Hendley

        compared to who, Jim Day, and his kid like hero worship, and that’s it.

  14. VaRedsFan

    Wayyyyy into the upper tank for Dixon

  15. Matt Hendley

    Dixon said his Tater ability is better then herrera, and he actually has an OF glove. LOL

  16. Matt Hendley

    Schebler said RF ain’t available either.

  17. docproctor

    Yeah, I’m glad Schebler sat out yesterday because he can’t hit lefties….

  18. Sliotar

    Just saw maybe the defining moment of the Riggleman 2018 Reds…

    Gennett, hitting third, current NL batting leader. trying to drop a bunt on a guy that has already given up 2 healthy HRs.

    Swing away…all 4500 people there did not come to watch Scooter bunt.

    • Matt Hendley

      Gonna stop you there, that bunt attempt came 1000% from the mind of one Scooter Gennett. lets blame RIggleman where he is blameworthy, but when a batter tries to get cute, call them out on it.

      • Sliotar

        If the bunting virus wasn’t so strong with this club, especially playing tonight in GABP, a real manager would tell Scooter upon getting back to the dugout….

        “Swing away…all 4500 people here did not come to watch you bunt. Plus, the guy out there is throwing softballs right now. Maybe try and jerk one down the line next time, OK?”

      • Sliotar

        It crossed my mind when he walked up that he might sacrifice….

        1st and 2nd, nobody out.

        Sad.

  19. docproctor

    Castillo rolling–and flashing 98 several times.

  20. VaRedsFan

    Here comes Hernandez, hold your breath…

  21. Matt Hendley

    if it hits the heel of the glove it means it could of gone in the webing of the glove. Peraza can apologize all he wants but at this point he has shot the dog. I know its not an error, and i know they got the DP but still this game is still to close for any extra Baseruners

  22. WVRedlegs

    How about them apples? 4-6-3 DP. Hernandez doing his Hughes imitation.

  23. Matt Hendley

    DIxon Does Homers, DIxon Does Defense, Dixon Does Everything

  24. msanmoore

    I cannot believe that DP I just saw. What a night for Dixon.

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