The Cincinnati Reds (57-75) will battle the Milwaukee Brewers (73-59) again tonight at 7:10 PM. The Reds offense came to life last night, leading the way to a 9-7 win to end the five-game losing streak.

Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey has pitched very well over his last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3 R, 3 BB, 18 K, 1.48 ERA. The Reds have decided to keep him until the end of the season, and now they will get an extended look if they are going to try to sign him this off-season. Harvey’s last start against the Brewers (7/1) was good one: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. He has a career 4.14 ERA in 4 starts against the Brewers.

Freddy Peralta‘s last start came against the Reds a week ago, and it was a good one: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K. Here is what I wrote about Peralta last weekThe 22-year old Freddy Peralta is having a great rookie year for the Brewers. His ERA would look a lot better if not for two starts where he allowed a combined 14 earned runs. He was only the Brewers 10th best prospect entering 2018. The Brewers acquired Peralta from the Mariners for Adam Lind back in 2015. 

Starting Lineups

You can find the lineups here.

Jose Peraza

Peraza just continues to have a delightful 2018 season. His wRC+ is now up to 99. The league average for a SS is just 88. Take a look at where Peraza ranks among Reds SS in wRC+ post-Barry Larkin:

  1. 2017 Cozart 141
  2. 2005 Lopez 116
  3. 2015 Suarez 106
  4. 2007 Peraza 99
  5. 2018 Gonzalez 99
  6. 2006 Lopez 95
  7. 2016 Cozart 91
  8. 2012 Cozart 83
  9. 2013 Cozart 78
  10. 2010 Cabrera 75
  11. 2008 Keppinger 69
  12. 2014 Cozart 56
  13. 2011 Janish 40
  14. 2009 Gonzalez 37

Yelich?

It has not been fun to watch Christian Yelich torch the Reds this year, especially when many begged the Reds to acquire him this off-season. It is important to remember the price tag the Brewers paid for him. The centerpiece of the deal was Lewis Brinson, who at the time was the #13 prospect in baseball. Nick Senzel was the #9 prospect in baseball, so in order for the Reds to beat the Brewers deal, it likely would have required him.

Nick is a lifelong Reds fan who was born and raised in Cincinnati. He acquired his love of baseball from his late grandfather. Nick moved to the Cleveland area in 2014 with his wife, and his currently fighting to convert his beautiful baby daughter Emma to Reds fandom. Nick has been writing for Redleg Nation since 2013. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicholaspkirby.

Join the conversation! 118 Comments

  1. Reds have 30 games left, including tonight. Anything better than 15-15 the rest of the way means….Riggleman is announced as full-time manager before the World Series is over.

    (A winning record also means the Reds avoid 90 losses).

    The excitement of the final losing record is almost too much to bear.

    Go Redlegs.

  2. The hope here is Harvey pitches a gem tonight and gets to 7.0 IP.
    I have to disagree about the price for Yelich. A package headlined by Hunter Greene and Jose Siri would have been better than what the Brewers gave. But it would have had to include 3 more Reds top-15 prospects.
    Brinson .186/.232/338 for the Marlins.
    Monte Harrison (OF): .243/.317.408 at AA.
    Isan Diaz (2B): .245/.365/.418 at AA and .217/.301/.392 at AAA.
    Jordan Yamamoto: very good pitching at A+ and some good pitching at AA.

    The Reds could have beaten this package with 4 players actually, or with 5. Even without Senzel, but including Greene though. Greene, Siri, Long, Gutierrez, Downs or Fairchild would have beaten this easily.

    • I’m not a poker player but isn’t there some disparaging cliché about held hands?

    • The Brewers won 86 games last year…the Reds won 68 games.

      MIL played a heavy price to get Yelich. because they thought his 4 WAR would get them to 90 wins or above, and into the playoffs.

      Even with Yelich…and Cain…and Schoop….and Moustakas…..the Brewers did not address the SP. The owner told fans in March they would in-season, the GM said they would at the trade deadline and the closest they came was…Matt Harvey? Yikes.

      The Reds weren’t close to contending last off-season and I am not sure they are any closer right now.

      Hopefully, there will be a time for an “over the top” trade. But, for now, no need to mortgage the future…keep the prospects developing and options open on them.

      • Starting pitching is a bit of a crapshoot. For a while, the Brewers had a dynamite bullpen. But probably overused, and faded the last 30-40 games.
        Yes, they are going to fall short this year, but it is singularly obvious that their starting pitching has to get better. They know that better than anyone. 2019 may be a big year for them.

        Or not.

        The Reds will finish in last place in 2019 too. So we have that figured out already.

    • As the headliner in the trade to the Fish, Lewis Brinson was one of the most over-rated minor league prospects playing over the past 6 seasons. He had classic inflated performances due to the PCL (AAA) and Cal League (A+). In between, Brinson posted a pedestrian .740 OPS in the Southern League (AA). The Brew Crew took the Fish to the cleaners in the Yelich trade. Unlike Brinson’s inflated performance, Yelich’s performance was deflated due to playing in that gosh-awful ugly monstrosity of a stadium.

      The Brew Crew would have made that trade every day and twice on Tuesdays without thinking twice or even thinking hard once. Kudos for the Brew Crew’s management for pulling off such a steal. The no-so-funny thing was that Yelich was no where close to as valuable to the Brew Crew as he should have been or would have been to the Reds and the Reds couldn’t pull off that trade.

      sigh…water over that darn dam…

      • Maybe he was overrated, but the people who make that analysis for a living felt otherwise. Yelich wouldn’t make the team competitive, he might not even be enough to get the Brewers in the playoffs. The Brewers were much further along in their rebuild and the Reds don’t even look to be competitive next year. Yelich will still be good, but nowhere near the bargain he is now once he starts making $12.5 million in 2020 when the Reds have a chance. That money could better be utilized on a starter

    • It was announced right after the trade happend that the “starting point” was Senzil” Green and more. that is an auto hangup, you dont trade the future for anyone, Mat Latos anyone?

  3. How is Cozart doing now? Should we have signed him?

    • not for the amount the angels paid him. He spent some time on the DL, (might still be there), is not hitting horribly well. Now in fairness he is not familiar with AL pitching yet and will need next year to determine if he will be good enough. But the reds couldn’t of afforded it.

  4. I think you flip-flopped the listings for Peraza and Gonzalez.
    Peraza is playing in 2018.

    And, who can forget Felipe Lopez? A couple of good years, and then nothing. Never was a very good defensive SS.

    Meanwhile in California, Zach Cozart is batting 0.219 for the season with 5 Hr. So yeah, I think the Angels paid high for that one. The Angels are 5 games under .500, 18 games out of 1st place. With a much higher payroll than the Reds, I would wager.

  5. Here’s hoping that Harvey puts the first nail in the Brewer’s season coffin tonight.

    • Reds hurt Brewers chances last night. Cubs now with 6 less losses. Cards with 2 less losses. Nail #2 comin’ up.

  6. Ugh, no Herrera, no Ervin and Hamilton in CF and leading off again.

  7. The Brewers don’t have the SP to win in October or perhape get to October.

    Listened to the Reds pregame.
    Amir Garrett on the DL with ankle/foot issue . With Reed starting tomorrow, Peralta is it in the Bullpen. Riggleman was refreshing- we don’t have a lefty in AAA to fill the gap. The righties in the pen need to do the job

    Votto was on the field today working and is close. Riggleman got a shot in about getting hit in the knee and that made it worse. He wasn’t hit in the backside .

    I don’t like Rigglemans bunting. I do think the Reds FO and ownership have too many cooks in the kitchen and Riggleman doesn’t have a choice about who hits leadoff and plays CF. I do like Riggleman. He answers questions .He’s professional.

  8. Scooter is 5’10.
    Senzel is 6’1 and athletic.

    Senzel catches the Lorenzo Cain single and Milwaukee only scores 1.

    There are 493 people at the game .

    • That half-inning went on for a bit, I believe you were able to count every single person in the seats. Kudos.

      Per Dick Williams hint about attendance in the second half affecting payroll, I guess that because they did not get 500 in there, we should only count on a #3 FA SP being added?

    • Did you include media, ball boys, and vendors???

  9. That might be the longest HR Billy has ever hit.

  10. BH leading off must be a last ditch effort to get him going and see if he’s capable before unloading him this off-season or demoting him next. I can’t see any other reason for this insanity.

  11. I’m going to the game tomorrow. Just bought a couple of bleacher seats for 4 bucks (plus fees) apiece. Glad to know we’ll be able to sit wherever we want.

    • Have a good time, Doc.

      I always have fun when I go to GABP.

      If the niceness of virtually all the game day staff could be translated into good front office decisions, the Redlegs would contend every season.

  12. I’m going to support the Reds tomorrow as well. Thom and Welsh very good tonight.
    Harvey good as well.

  13. Thom and Welsh didn’t seem to realize that Schebler has been doing that silly 2-strike crouch for quite awhile. I haven’t seen it yield anything other than a strikeout.

    • He tried it (and failed) before the DL. I’m with you Doc….K every time.

  14. Kind of hate to agree with Thom, but Schebler look lost to me. Funky stance and weird swings.

    Go Tucker!!! ⚾️⚾️⚾️⚾️

  15. Third time through lineup. Not off to a good start going through it.

  16. Youchich!!

  17. Did Yelich change his last name to Thames? He’s sure hitting like Thames does against the Reds..

  18. So do we sign Harvey because he can get Thames out, or dump him because he can’t get the rest of the Brewers out?

  19. Thom. “Matt Harvey leaves after giving up 5 straight hits”.

    Welsh. ” that was an ambush”

    Yes and yes.

    Someone needs to orchestrate a winning 2019. I’m not seeing it. Be

  20. lets keep it at 2, good grief

  21. unbelievable, I wish there was a stat that showed how many runs a players mistake caused for the other team to score, Cause Jose Peraza would have a nice high one of those as well. Shame, Looked like matt Harvey was doing so well until the 5th. But at least we can give a couple of these pitchers a look in a environment where it does not damage the reds chance of winning the game too much.

  22. Billy 2 for 3, and the homer nice.

  23. The Legend takes Bader off the wall with a 2 run double!!

  24. oh and someone remind me why we should trade scooter and keep Peraza again. Clutch hitting. Go Scooter

  25. SCOOTER! Against the toughest lefty reliever in the league.
    That might put him back in NL batting lead, too.

  26. And Geno scrapes the wall with a 2 run dinger.

  27. Geno with a GABP 1st Row Special.

  28. Suarez is the New Votto

  29. Scooter has 4 hits vs. the Brewers that have either tied the game or given the Reds the lead.

  30. I guess Senzel would have hit a 5 run homer? Scooter is just doing the best he can? I hope leading the NL in hitting is worth something? Who says it has to be Scooter OR Senzel anyway? What more does Scooter have to do to earn his keep around here?

    All that stuff I said about Harvey yesterday? Never mind….lol. Actually…who knows with any of our pitchers? It just looks like the Cubs and Brewers are going to score off whoever we put out there.

    • na your good the thing is everyone is entitled to A bad start, even Jonney Cueto had one in ’12. Its when every start becomes a bad start that its a problem. Plus i don’t think anyone thinks that Harvey is #1 material, but he is a Solid #3/4 and will agree to be paid as such. Plus name will put butts in seats which will pay for the #1 or 2 that we have to get from FA and not Trade,

    • ANd no Senzil should play short, or Maybe Left,

    • Use Senzel to get an ace pitcher, which is what the Reds really need. Scooter trade, would not net an ace. Teams looking to rebuild want that shiny prospect to give up their ace. How about Blake Snell for Senzel and a few others?

      • Even 2 years ago i would begrudingly agree with you but i think the winds are shifting. Plus there is a list of Reds Prospects I would deem untouchable. Senzel, Green, trammel, Siri and Long any one else is fair game. As far as what you are suggesting, i would start with Snell and a prospect for Senzil. and work from there.

  31. GENO!!!! ⚾️⚾️⚾️⚾️

  32. Saying this now, this will be a SlugOUT. going the over on 20 runs

  33. Billy saved a run there, I don’t know if it counts as a DRS, but it was.

  34. May just want to try something else with Yelich cause it ain’t working.

  35. Lorenzen went full Jon Lester on that throw to 1st. Of course, that guys scores.
    Our once solid bullpen is crumbling like it did last year.

  36. “Not working for Hader tonight”

    I’d say that’s accurate

  37. counsells getting toosed if lorenzen isnt out

  38. THOM!: Who needs the stinking bunt!

  39. Ha Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah Hah

  40. Riggleman and his bunting…. the horror, the horror

  41. If that isn’t a lightbulb moment for Riggs on bunting, we will never get it.

  42. im gonna be honest I would of gotten tossed, at this point. But if you needed an answer why lorenzen is on the roster i think you got it. Oh and another hit for billy

  43. Billy has that Eddie Milner smile

  44. I think Lorenzen was kind of mad about getting thrown at.

    And then…..BOOM!

  45. another note….no offense from Perazza tonight.

    • Sometimes in the course of 162 games, a player will have a night where they don’t get a hit or a walk, and don’t have an opportunity for a sacrifice fly.

      Shocking, I know!

      • its not just a night, when he does get hits they are generally worthless, they neither form RBI’s or get him to score, most happen in low pressure situations. His Defense which is the PRIORITY of any SS is atrocious. he lets in more runs then he creates. And funny since everyone gets on billy when he does have days when he only has a single, or a singular walk but still brings that excellent defense like the first out in the 7th, and everyone piles up on him. hell yea, I bet Pena wont do what he did before again!!!! Wait, what did he do before to deserve that?

        • its not just a night, when he does get hits they are generally worthless, they neither form RBI’s or get him to score, most happen in low pressure situations.

          RBIs and Runs are more a product of the team, not the individual player. If you want to isolate an individual player’s contribution, the best stat we have available is Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+), and by that measure, Peraza is well above average for his position. That cannot be disputed.

          His Defense which is the PRIORITY of any SS is atrocious. he lets in more runs then he creates.

          I agree his defense needs to improve at SS (and I personally advocate for him moving to CF to replace BH), but it’s laughable to suggest Peraza has cost the team more runs than he has created.

          • Glad you asked cause i watched peraza last week, and we are going with 2 metrics that am going with, Actual Runs Created and Opponent Runs Caused, Actual Runs Created (and yes this is my reasoning and completely unscientific and done with 1 week of a sample size) is the Bat/Foot Run Rule, wherein if if the players bat (RBI) or he scores (foot) gets a run towards. Because i am not giving you credit for getting stranded on second cause you lead the team in doubles and get stuck there. ( but no one can steal home from first {billy} or score on a sac fly from second {also billy} ) which is a problem that wRC does not account for. Now Opponent Runs Caused is a scenario where a bonafide error directly results in the opponent scoring runs. Butcher a double play ball to end the inning. and a run scores you have a run. Drop a pop up with 2 outs and the other team scores 6 times you have 6 runs caused. Now lets look at last week. Monday, nothing tuesday didn’t play, wed nothing thursday, committed an error that directly led to 2 runs being scored so -2, friday nothing, saturday a blown double play, leading to 4 runs being scored in a game the reds lost by 4. so -6 overall, ( and yes he is getting hits and maybe even doubles, but he is not doing anything with them during this time. Three more runs on Sunday, to -9 overall, during this time not crossing the plate once or hitting one RBI AT ALL. SO finally monday, 4 runs (foot) and 2 RBI (bat) bringing the total back to -3. but that is three more runs he caused then he gave up. and yes that is ten days. incidentally during that time he also 0-4ed in 3 seperate games. WRC is great over a season. But i don’t need Jose Peraza to win games, I need the Reds to win games and his defense is directly stopping that. and i addressed center field yesterday. 2b/ss is his natural position and so CF will be a degrade.

            Now did i create a new metric? or is it bullshit, i would appreciate honest opinions.

          • Because i am not giving you credit for getting stranded on second cause you lead the team in doubles and get stuck there.

            Why not? That’s not the player’s fault, it’s the team’s fault. If you have Player X that hits 1.000 with nothing but doubles but plays on a team where everyone else hits .000, Player X will score 0 runs. Are you saying Player X that hits 1.000 with 600+ doubles over a season is a bad player because he never scored or drove in any runs?

          • Why not? That’s not the player’s fault, it’s the team’s fault. If you have Player X that hits 1.000 with nothing but doubles but plays on a team where everyone else hits .000, Player X will score 0 runs. Are you saying Player X that hits 1.000 with 600+ doubles over a season is a bad player because he never scored or drove in any runs?

            Yes, we will run with your analogy for the sake of argument and cause my fingers are starting to hurt. but at some point that player will need to recognize that doubles are not enough. He will need to improve his stolen base game (extremely in your scenario). I know everyone hates thom but he points it out that Billy scores at a higher rate when on base, despite being on base less then an appropriate average. For example. its not what he does, (which analytics does very well) its what he does for the team.

          • Yes, we will run with your analogy for the sake of argument and cause my fingers are starting to hurt. but at some point that player will need to recognize that doubles are not enough.

            Seriously? A player that hits 1.000 with 600+ doubles every season would be the single greatest player in baseball history, bar none, and it wouldn’t be remotely close. Consider that Pete Rose in his CAREER hit 746 doubles. You have a player that would pass that number in one season and a few weeks.

            If you put him on a normal team, that team would challenge for the most wins in baseball history, and that player would very likely score 200+ runs with 200+ RBI. Even if pitchers wised up and walked him every time, that’s still a guaranteed baserunner every single time that player came to bat.

            If a player hits a double, he has had a very, very good AB. The only better outcome for him would be a triple or HR. The fact you’re arguing that hitting doubles is “not enough” just makes it seem like you’re arguing in bad faith at this point.

          • Matt – I’m mostly with you. This is a team sport. To measure contribution to a team’s success you have to look at the stats in FAR more detail than what is utilized typically in sabermetrics and toward the measurement of ‘individual achievement’, which renders stuff like wRC+ not nearly as useful as their proponents make them out to be.

            With respect to Peraza, because he is playing SS the # of plays he’s involved in is higher and thus far his play there is not strong enough. But Scooter’s defense has also been very subpar. Votto’s defense is poor but he is already shielded at first base, we can’t play Peraza, Scooter and Votto in the same spot unfortunately. Even Suarez while he makes some great plays has butchered a few which cost the pitchers several runs.

            It’s a dog awful defense that has inflated and will continue to inflate our pitcher’s ERAs all year long. Let alone the corner outfield defense…..

            Back to the original premise….I’ll take a guy who helps the team win for $600,000 per year over a guy who is dependent upon other members of the team to inflate his value at $25MM per year all day any day every day

          • CI3J,

            The point is this is a team game. Yes, the player who hits a double every single time is the best baseball hitter ever.mmbut because all his teammates hit .000, his value to the TEAM is no different than replacing him with a player (offensively) who hits far less, even .000, because the TEAM result is the same – ZERO runs scored.

            Your player who is an awesome hitter, his/her value to the TEAM is still dependent upon the performance of others. It’s a team game. Thus trying to separate out an individual’s performance is highly overrated, and paying up for individual achievement is being resource inefficient.

            I don’t know anybody on the A’s other than Manaee (sp?) or on Tampa Bay then Snell. Yet they are performing far better than the Reds with Votto and Suarez and Homer on the team. Don’t overpay for individual past performance, it isn’t rewarding unless you have the ability to outspend all your competition. The Reds aren’t in that position.

      • Last time tonight then im replying at work tommorow. You have a unrealistic scenario. I worked within the confines of that scenario. But what ever the issue is he is not scoring or batting in runs at a high enough rate. You furthermore have not countered the defensive side of the arguement at all.

        Its not the double its the actions after the double. Billy has scored on sac flies from second (plural). He has created other runs by himself after getting on base. Peraza needs to do that. He is literally being placed in the spot in the line up that will provide hime the highest likelyhood of getting knocked in if he is on any base.

        He is better then last year. Yes i will give everyone that. But senzel needs a spot.

    • FYI one of the Jose’s at bats was “productive”.

  46. Michael lorenzen is a weapon. 3 run homers at playoff time to ruin the Brewers???? That’s big time

    • 4 HR in 22 or so AB. Nearly as many bases as AB. He’s supposedly 2nd or 3rd fastest on the team. Is this our part time CF option???

  47. Never bunt. Hit dingers. Will Riggleman finally stop bunting?

  48. You can always count on GABP to have a max of only 2 poor camera angles, to miss the action at 2nd base.

  49. Thats why I want Lorenzen in the rotation. He’s raw but he’s got great talent and a work ethic. He’ll find a way to beat you more often then not!

  50. Bad Camera angles dont excuse the umpire from blowing the call

  51. After the Bengals took the lead on a touchdown and fieldgoal, the Packers have pulled within 2 with their own touchdown and 2-point conversion.

    The Bengals need another field goal to get some breathing room.

  52. Thank you, Billy.

    Looks like we may be “over” the 20 mark tonight after all.

  53. YIKES!!!!

  54. And Yelich for the cycle …

  55. We have a cycle. Not only by a player, but by the Brewers in the inning.

  56. Could these two teams just play a normal doggone baseball game?

  57. yea there is cycle, and yea the brewers hit for the cycle and yes unfortunatly my over on the 20 will now have to come true to end the game somehow, but we are tied, and many players are hitting the ball hard. WE CAN STILL WIN

  58. The Packers sack the QB in the endzone for a safety! We’re all tied up at 10, folks!

  59. Player of the game is Ramano. He put up a goose egg inning.
    There isn’t a guy in the bullpen that can be counted on for about the last 4-6 weeks

  60. I’m not very high on Lorenzen as a pitcher, but I think he could be a huge assest as a full-time CF.

    • At least give Lorenzen a try in the outfield. If not now, at least in spring training. Hopefully somebody in the front office with influence will see the light. Real good offense is going to waste.

  61. This game has Jackson Stephens written all over it.

  62. Wow, Geno is slow. He doesn’t “run” around the bases, he “chugs” around the bases. Or maybe “rumbles” around the bases.

  63. Yeah, the Reds didn’t need Yelich. What an awesome player.

    • oh the reds need yelich yes, they just need the players the marlins wanted more.

  64. WTYellich

  65. They would be better off bringing in Dixon to pitch.

    • blandino was better, maybe one game if next season goes down the crapper they should do a all position player pitchig game

  66. Hernandez is Peralta 2.0. A few good months, then throws batting practice

  67. Pure havoc! Billy having quite a game tonight.

  68. My God these umpires are horrible.

  69. pizza

  70. 6-6 and hit for the cycle. Whew!
    Reds can still walk it off even after giving up 19 hits. Ervin again maybe?

  71. Hahahaha.

    Good call earlier, VARedsFan.

    Extra innings in a crazy game….it’s Jackson Time.

  72. Uh oh, the White Flag is warming up in the bullpen.

    It’s now or never, boys!

  73. i smell a bunt,

  74. We had nobody that could hold the fort tonight.Sad

  75. At least we didnt take it lying down

Comments are closed.

About Nick Kirby

Nick is a lifelong Reds fan who was born and raised in Cincinnati. He acquired his love of baseball from his late grandfather. Nick moved to the Cleveland area in 2014 with his wife, and his currently fighting to convert his beautiful baby daughter Emma to Reds fandom. Nick has been writing for Redleg Nation since 2013. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicholaspkirby.

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