The Milwaukee Brewers won 86 games in 2017, a 13-game improvement over 2016. They finished one win short of the N.L. wild card play-in game. Despite that progress — dare one say, a winning culture — the front office and ownership proceeded to acquire a new centerfielder, a new right fielder, a new third baseman, a new shortstop and a new first baseman. They benched last season’s starting second baseman. They have three new starting pitchers, a new closer and new primary set-up reliever. Some of the new acquisitions were long-term (Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain), some were rentals (Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop). It’s yet to be seen whether this is a better team than last year’s and whether all those changes were worth it. They’re on pace to win 89-90. But it sure is hard to imagine the risk-averse, change-averse Reds front office and ownership doing anything remotely like it.  

Cincinnati Reds 2 (55-70) • Milwaukee Brewers 5 (70-57)

Box Score || Win % || Statcast Hitters Report || Statcast Pitchers Report

Homer Bailey pitched six innings, giving up three runs – a solo home run to Christian Yelich and a 2-run shot by Travis Shaw. Bailey walked one and struck out five on 96 pitches. Since Bailey has returned from the DL he’s: (1) pitched into the 7th inning, score tied 2-2, (2) thrown a complete game loss 2-1, (3) pitched into the fifth inning, down 5-0, (4) pitched into the 6th inning, leaving with the score 3-2, (5) pitched six innings, losing 3-2. So the Reds have scored 2, 1, 0, 2 and 2 runs while he’s pitched. He’s struck out 26 and walked 6 in 29.1 innings. 

Cody Reed and Jared Hughes combined to pitch a shutout 7th. Jared Hughes started the 8th inning and gave up two big insurance runs on a walk, a triple and a sacrifice fly. It was first time Hughes has given up two earned runs all season. He had gone since July 21 without giving up a single earned run. Hughes pitched a full season for the Brewers last year. Milwaukee non-tendered him this offseason. 

The Reds scored on two solo home runs in the second. Eugenio Suarez hit his 28th of the season, blasting it 426 feet into left-center. Two batters later, Phillip Ervin followed with his 4th homer, to left. Ervin has 128 plate appearances and isolated power (ISO) of .191. That compares to Scooter Gennett (.180), Scott Schebler (.192) and Adam Duvall (.193). Dilson Herrera’s ISO is .243. Michael Lorenzen’s is .450. 

After a couple nice games against the punchless, pitchless San Francisco Giants, the Reds offensive woes returned. They managed just two hits until the 9th when Mason Williams singled and Jose Peraza walked a batter later. The top three hitters (Billy Hamilton, Peraza and Scooter Gennett) went a quiet 0-for-11. It’s worth pointing out they are playing without Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler and Joey Votto. 

Schebler Rehab Scott Schebler started in LEFT FIELD tonight for Pensacola and hit third. The Reds outfielder has been sidelined with a sprained AC shoulder joint since July 14 when a wall ran into him in St. Louis. Schebler could join the Reds as early as Thursday in Chicago. Schebler has hit .278/.351/.470 and wRC+ of 120 this year. In his 103 plate appearances leading off, Schebler hit .301/.376/.544 with a walk rate of 10.3% and wRC+ of 143. He was 1 for 4 tonight, with a single. 

Better Late Than Never This move should have been made right after Joey Votto went on the DL to give Dilson Herrera a long stretch of games at 2B. If Tucker Barnhart (5’11”) can play 1B, Scooter Gennett (5’10”) can. At least Gennett is used to an infielder’s glove. Barnhart needs the rest when he has days off. 

Checking in on the Duvall Trade Adam Duvall has 28 plate appearances for the Atlanta Braves with three singles and two walks to show for it. That’s a line of .115/.179/.115. Meanwhile Preston Tucker is hitting .207/.303/.345 for the Reds in 31 PA. Tucker has a homer and double. Pitcher Lucas Sims has started three games for Louisville. He has 19 strikeouts (30.2%) and 3 walks in 16.1 innings and an ERA of 3.31 and FIP of 3.08. 

Steve grew up in Cincinnati as a die-hard fan of Sparky’s Big Red Machine. After 25 years living outside of Ohio, mostly in Ann Arbor, he returned to the Queen City in 2004. He has resumed a first-person love affair with the Cincinnati Reds and is a season ticket holder at Great American Ball Park. The only place to find Steve’s thoughts of more than 140 characters is Redleg Nation. Follow his tweets @spmancuso.

Join the conversation! 79 Comments

  1. Huh – you didn’t mention how many hits Baily gave up…. SO’s – check… walks – check… runs scored for him over last 4 games… check…. but no mention of his getting hit hard.

    • I almost never mention the number of hits pitchers give up. In large part, it’s a matter of luck since batters have little control over where the ball goes. Walks and strikeouts are what pitchers mainly control. If you’ve read my writing for any length of time, you’d know those are outcomes I look at the most for pitchers. That’s also the basis of ERA predictor stats like FIP, xFIP and SIERA, all of which do a better job of predicting future runs surrendered than does ERA.

      • Sure from a game to game perspective it doesn’t carry as much weight as walks and K’s.

        But this is a trend that one could observe over his whole season that he has allowed a fair number of hits. Why might that be. We have enough data to dig into the BABIP and LD% and hard-hit% to find if there is a connection or if it is just luck of if he is just more hittable after all the injuries.

        It was a nice QS for him last night, but 1.5 WHIP is skating on thin ice.

        Overall this season his BABIP is lower than last year, OBP lower, Slugging higher, K/9 lower, BB/9 lower, H/9 higher, HR/9 higher (almost 2x). (this is all I can find quickly).

        So if anything on the hits he is actually being luckier than last year, but the results are not following since the K’s are down, and he’s being squared up more perhaps.

      • ?! At some point you’d think reality would break through your theory about hits being luck. For each individual hit, you’re right – there’s some luck involved (a dink double vs a screaming line drive out) but in aggregate – is there a good pitcher who gives up more hits than innings pitched? It’s certainly a time tested – easily discernable – indicator of success.

  2. Tonight was a great example of why W-L can be deceiving and why the “blame Homer” narrative is just….wrong.

    Pitching a quality start in Miwaukee with that kind of offensive support is going to lead to a lot of pitchers losing.

    By the way…Ol’ Havoc went 0 for 4 in the leadoff spot, with 2Ks, including a K in the ninth with one guy already on base.

    Not enough HRs, not enough SP, key injuries and lousy game and lineup management…but, sure, Homer is holding this team back from being .500.

    (By the way, still counting down to the day when Homer is bought out and the $ is used to fill holes to start the contention window.)

    • Wins/Losses isn’t deceiving here at all…. Bailey stinks>

      IP: 91.1 Hits: 118 Walks 30 HRs 20 WHIP 1.62

      That’s a bad pitcher – right there.

      • Overall, yes he has been bad. Last night he had a performance that would have resulted in a win in any of the three previous games. W/L is like RBI, strongly tied to the performance of others

        • Baseball is a team sport. You need guys who can get on base….but they’re worthless unless someone drives them in. Pitching is awesome, but in the end you need your hitting to overcome your pitching and defense on average more than 57% of the time to make the playoffs. Or you need pitchers who can pitch better than whatever offense you get on any given day.

          This site is awesome. Except when the biases show, thus to make certain players appear more valuable than others.

          Best to be objective as much as possible when it comes to matters regarding the team and what’s best for the TEAM.

    • They’re 1-16 when Homer starts and his era is north of 6….but its bad luck. I’d say yeah…..forcing Homer and Finnegan on the team put the nail in the .500 coffin. Of course when Disco goes 5.1 and a guy gets on then he’ll pull him but Homer gets $20 mil worth of rope. Reed’s warming up but Homer stays in to face LH Shaw. Brilliant! Ervin is killing it, but he won’t play the second Schebler shows up. I’ll be surprised if Havoc gets moved back to 9th?

      I cannot express how badly I want them to lose 90 again! They’d love to promote 74-88 like they’re making progress! They have more talent overall and the bench is better, but its the same idiotic logic running the organization.

    • Didn’t mention Ol’ Havoc’s previous game though, did you? Quite a few 0-fers last night, for that matter.

      • 2 triples….yeah they may not be worth $50 mil apiece like 2 no-no’s, but Billy isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. The best we can hope for is that they move him back to 9th. Don’t get me wrong….I enjoy his D as much as anyone. It’s crazy how strong his arm is for a toothpick, but his offense (and cost) doesn’t make up for it and never will.

        • I’d bat him 9th, too. I was just reflecting on the deafening silence that follow a good game by BH and the predictable snark that follows a bad (offensively) one. He’s become the whipping boy for a team that sorely needs good starting pitching.

          • 1000 times …YES

          • Right or wrong he is the whipping boy and if we had 5 good starters and a MLB hitter with power at every other position we would only be talking about that defense like they do on the Reds site almost daily.His offensive numbers are what they are and have been for 5 soon to be 6 years.He will be back next year and some will condemn him while others commend him.No worries because Bob love him.

          • Yep, next year the same poster will be reviewing the game threads and gave review threads and pointing out the inconsistencies.

            Is there an update on what number of games can be utilized to prove that this is a good Reds team? How many of the losses don’t really count?
            Do first place/wild card teams that have more injuries than the Reds get to disregard losses as well when determining the state of their teams?

          • He was mentioned favorably in that game’s recap.

      • I prefer to mention his performance for the entire season. Thus far an OPS+ of 67. And a bWAR of 0.8. Right on par with last year’s effort. Not a guy you want hitting leadoff and not a guy you want to pay $8-9MM per year, which is about what he’ll be next year.

        Seems like a guy that a winning organization would move on from. Does that describe the Reds?

        • All that matters is that said terrible hitter had a good game and no one was giving him credit. He had a good game, therefore, the season rates are irrelevant and $8-$9 million seems like a bargain.

          • If that were an alleged quote from BC, I’m afraid I’d have to believe it…

          • No, my point–and what really matters–is that good and consistent starting pitching is the issue, not BH smiling inappropriately. He’s easy to pick on, so people do. He’s become the symbol for the losing, but the losing will only be fixed when the pitching is fixed. Would a better all-around centerfielder be helpful? Certainly. But the offense isn’t really the main problem.

  3. As an alternative to Herrera at 2B and Gennett at 1B, how about Herrera in LF, Ervin in CF, and Schebler in RF.

    • Schebler is on rehab. It’s true, though: If BH had been traded during the off-season, the Reds would have won it all this year.

      • Who’s making that claim?

        • It seems as though everybody but me is making that claim.

          • I think Hamilton gets a good deal of the blame from the fanbase when he sputters offensively and the Reds’ offense sputters right along with him. If the Reds had better hitters throughout the lineup or didn’t have other options for CF, then it probably would be a non-issue because his defense is excellent and has value. I don’t think he’s taking the burden of the blame for losing though. It seems most people know that it’s primarily pitching that’s letting this team down. If anyone is the target of “It’s his fault the Reds stink!!” comments it’s Homer Bailey.

          • Riggleman and Jocketty and Castellini get their share of vitriol, too, but the harping on Billy is nearly constant. People pay lip-service to the pitching, but BH seems to raise a lot of hackles.

      • GREENMTRED — I realize Schebler is on rehab and will probably not play until Thursday against the Cubs. Nor do I think if we traded BH during the off-season we would make the playoffs. I am not trying to bash BH. Here is my logic:

        1) Hamilton with 2376 at bats has a career OBP of .299. His OBP this year is .302. Given the sample size this is probably who Hamilton is.

        2) The probability the Reds make the playoffs this year is essentially zero.

        3) Given 1) and 2) I would like to see the Reds be more Cub-like and experiment with different lineups for 2019.

    • The defense with that outfield is cringe-worthy

  4. Steve, the very first entry of the recap is spot on. Milwaukee is reaching strenuously for success, Cincinnati seem to be waiting around for success to just fall out of the sky and hit them on the head as they are meandering about in the game of professional baseball.

    • How about this old Pink Floyd Lyric to sum up the Reds and rebuild…..

      “And then one day you find ten years have got behind you.
      No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun”.

      Still a few years to go for the Reds but I think the sentiment fits perfectly.

  5. Atleast Milw traded Khris Davis….37 Hrs and 99 rbis. The guy is amazing!! If they had Davis and Scooter then they could’ve bought enough pitching like the Cubs did. Woulda, coulda, shoulda

    • I know why they moved Gennet though. They felt, in the sample they had seen, Gennett wasn’t going to hit LHP. Therefore they looked at him as a platoon player (on the long-side of the platoon as he’d play vs RHP), and LH bench bat. THey didn’t feel that was worth what they were going to pay him in arbitration and they had Villar and a couple other options they felt could produce in roughly the same way. They were clearly wrong but their logic in waving Gennet made sense.

      The Reds made a brilliant move in claiming him. Picking up Dan Straily was equally impressive. Trading him for Castillo also impressive as I think Castillo will be a legit #2 or #3 starter on the next great Reds team (if such a team ever happens). Those moves along with the coup of trading Simon for Suarez are things the Reds’ FO have definitely gotten right.

  6. Interesting to note that Schebler played LF on his rebab tonight. Wonder if they are planning on using in in LF when he gets back to MLB, and if so if it is to save his shoulder from longer throws required in RF.

    • Interesting thought, Jim.

      Just like the discussion on the Bob Steve article, some of these Reds players aren’t young by MLB standards, even though they haven’t played much at the MLB level.

      Schebler is turning 28 in October, Ervin just turned 26.

      The Reds definitely need more HR power, but have a potential logjam as it is in IF and C is well-stocked.

      Maybe only 1 of the 2 guys above ends up sticking, if the Reds try to get more power from a OF through an Iglesias winter trade or even (sticker stock alert) through free agency?

      (I am assuming Hamilton is in CF, at least for 2019).

      • Outfield “rotation” has a poor connotation in Reds country but based on Schebler’s injury history and even Winker’s in the minors (shoulder this year aside), the 4th OF figures to play a lot next year.

        If nobody new is brought in from outside the org, the Reds could do a lot worse than insightful mixing and matching of Winker, Schebler, and Ervin (based on the last month) in 2019. That’s also presuming Nick Senzel is on the infield and as you surmised BHam is the CF and not Ervin or Schebler.

  7. FO should turn the page at end of the season and DFA Bailey. You may say many things about his performance, but at his age and injury history he’s not getting any better with an ERA north of six. Also, his presence does not help the dugout morale, nor is giving a good example to the young arms.

    • I don’t know whether Homer can improve at this point, but if you’ve spent enough time in the dugout to know his affect on its morale, I imagine you’ve got many insights to share.

      • Well a clear bad example is when the idea of Bailey to the pen was floated, he shot it down. A better example would have been to say, “I understand why they need to do this, and I will do my best to make this adjustment to my routine and help the team. If I pitch well there, I hope to earn my way back into the rotation.”

        I don’t expect him to like it, but we’ve all had to swallow our pride from time-to-time, sometimes its just gotta go that way.

      • If the Reds would have traded Hamilton in the off season they would be leading the Central and contenders for the World Series.

        Homer had a good game a few times this year, did you review the game threads and game reviews to ensure he received the amount of credit you deem proper?

        • Addressed to me, I assume? No, I haven’t, because Homer has not been the focus for everyone’s frustration.

          • Yes, yes he has. Maybe not as much in this thread but in almost every conversation about “what is wrong with the Reds” Homer and his contract is given a ton of blame.

          • Now that I think about it, you’re right, LW. Homer does get dumped on–well, Homer and his contract–but I still think that Billy gets dumped on more. It would be a mood-depressor to tabulate this, though.

  8. But how many RBIs does Duvall have?

    • Why play Duvall when Acuna is in Left? They aren’t the Reds. Atlanta is trying to win.

  9. A few years ago, Craig Counsell was on an interview with one of the Reds broadcasters. Craig discussed his interview for the manager job at Tampa Bay, after Joe Maddon left.
    Craig was impressed by the use of advanced metrics by Tampa Bay, and how they understood them to get the most out of their roster, talent, etc.
    My impression is that the Brewers use a lot of advance metrics in making decisions. I think they WANTED something for Scooter when he was released, but nobody was buying (except the Reds), who probably had in mind a “reserve infielder” and pinch hitter. You can say getting rid of Scooter (who has had two phenomenal years in a row, well above career average previously) and Khrys Davis were bad moves, but all the other moves have made them better, albeit at a price.

    The Reds interest in “getting better” is marginal, largely limited by the willingness to spend money. The Brewers have a domed stadium, and will ALWAYS play. They had a nice crowd last night for a Monday night game.
    The Reds attendance is pretty poor, as the fans smell the losing. The Reds have been both unlucky and made mistakes with money and signings in the past. Injuries to Mesoraco and Bailey have really stung. plus the payroll cost. They will be very reluctant to take on major payroll risks.

    And so I think the Reds are stuck in 4th-5th place for the forseeable future. There is no real “rebuild” on this team. That is a buzzword that has been tossed about to appease the fans. All the ideas about what the Reds could do with their roster really hinge on the success of their starting pitching, which largely remains bad. Until they pay for a better staff, they will remain where they re. We will be teased by occasional good performances by Castillo, Mahle, etc. But it will still be a while, if ever, when the young guys can sustain their good starts. And sadly, Homer is just not going to be a successful starter again. I watched the game last night, and Travis Shaw was absolutely locked in against Homer. Homer had no idea how to get him out prior to the 2 run dinger.

    • Homer definitely had no business throwing Shaw another fastball after he had just hit one 200 mph foul. He made the same mistake to another lefty in a previous start. Inside fastball, that wasn’t inside enough.

  10. Here is a thought for Riggleman. Stop using Hughes against his old teammates. He has given up 11 runs this year. 5 against Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.

  11. I find it instructive to read the comments after a win and compare them to the comments after a loss. We can say, and we do, that we want them to lose to get better draft position and get Riggleman fired, but it ain’t so.

    • I agree. That said, I’d never even say that personally. I don’t like Riggleman and I hope he isn’t the guy in 2019 and beyond. As far as losing for a better draft pick, I absolutely hate tanking. A lot of traditionalists have been pointing the finger at analytics and stat nerds ruining the game but that isn’t the case. What’s ruining the game is that more than a few teams aren’t trying to win baseball games. They are tanking and banking. Part of that may be the financial disparity but that isn’t the whole story.

  12. Milwaukee,Pittsburgh,Philly and Atlanta are all in the playoff hunt after major rebuilds. Granted the Pirates have struggled of late but they are certainly in a better position for future success as compared to the Reds. The difference with all of those franchises is they were/are proactive. The Reds FO/ownership sit on their hands and wait and hope. They are slow to make moves. That was the case at the beginning of the rebuild. They never made a trade when a player was the most valuable. Instead they waited. Some of it was bad luck but most was just bad decision making. This franchise could be close if the right moves are made but I just don’t see it happening given the history.

    • Not that it really matters if the Reds are 4th or 5th, but I think Pitt really sunk themselves with that Archer trade?

      • I agree and think the Pirates are on the downswing. They should have been sellers this year and instead traded some good prospects for a decent, but not great SP, who isn’t enough to make them a playoff team. Cards are also struggling and need to make a decision on rebuild or reload. Brewers and Cubs are the two teams the Reds need to catch and probably won’t in 2019.

        Reallistically the Reds are playing for third place and a long shot for the wild card next year. How realistic that is depends on what moves are made in the off season

      • I agree 100%. They gave up one arm that I’m pretty sure will be better than Archer in 2020 and beyond (and perhaps as early as next year), another top arm, and Meadows, who’s still project-able.

    • let us once again review the return for the Aroldis Chapman trade. The Reds netted…..nothing. One of the more dominant and iconic relievers in baseball, and the Reds got nothing of value in return. A bunch of guys from the Yankees that were either almost out of options, or they had determined had no future with the ML Club. Shrewd…..for the Yankees. Not so much for the Reds.

      The Frazier trade, on the other hand, has been a very good one. Todd has been hurt a lot the last few years, and his OPS has been falling. Schebler has proven to have some ML value. Peraza is still improving at SS, and Dixon will, I think, emerge as a good ML hitter.

      The verdict is still out on the Jay Bruce trade. Dilson has been hurt, but has at last made it to the majors to stay. Jay has really not hit well since he left Cincy.

      Cueto trade yielded three pitchers. One (Lamb) is gone. We still don’t know what happened to Finnegan, but I suspect he has deeper issues that what the fans can see. Maybe he can recapture his stuff, but I think he is washed out. Reed still may prove to be a ML quality pitcher.

      Leake trade yielded Duvall (who had two pretty good years, and the most recent lousy year), and Mella, who may now begin to emerge as a possible ML starter. Tough to yet evaluate this trade. One more year, maybe.

      One trade bombed, one trade was very good, the two others still are “wait and see”. This is what happens when you trade for young prospects and give up veteran ML players.

      • Not to mention the Simon, Latos, and Strailey trades, that were out of the park winners. Bruce was nothing special, at that time in his career. to begin with, and has continued to be nothing special. Herrera may, or may not ever pan out, but it wasn’t as if we traded Frank Robinson.

        • Except at first it was Zach Wheeler for Bruce….then it was Nimmo. Both have had excellent years and could be an instant starter w/the Reds. Instead we get Dilson who has no place to play.

          • Bruce still had 2 years of control left when the Wheeler deal was discussed. It fell through however because Wheeler was coming off TJS and his recovery/rehab had a setback. Nimmo apparently had a medical issue as well that the Reds didn’t like. They ended up trading for the guy they thought would be the most healthy and who many folks thought (myself included) would be a better MLB player than Nimmo. Turns out he had shoulder issues so he was way behind schedule. Of course the Reds waited a long time to finally decide to go with a surgical solution. I’m ok with that considering his age but it’s made it so he hasn’t had a chance to contribute much. I’m still not convinced that Hererra won’t be a better player than Nimmo.

  13. Steve, you say a hit is a matter of luck, but so are strikeouts. Of all the calculation on pitchers the 2 I like the best are percentages of ground ball and solid contact.

    • It’s all luck, in the end, and all of the luck is bad.

      • By that reasoning, Billy Hamilton is a very unlucky ballplayer. Perhaps the Reds are on to a new metric. Luck.
        Let’s figure out who is lucky in baseball and go out and get them!!! We’ll trade in Mr. Red as a team icon and create a new one call “Mr. Lucky”.

  14. Homer Bailey has been awful at times, but last night wasn’t one of them. That Bailey has a place in my 2019 rotation – he just needs to show one way or the other whether he can repeat that or not.

    The offense was anemic and really missed Schebler, Winker and Votto but in their absence Philip Ervin might be my new favorite Reds hitter.

    And Steve I understand your point but I can’t get excited about Preston Tucker. Sims may prove a valuable acquisition, but I can’t get worked up about an upgrade to the Reds fifth best outfield position. Meh.

  15. The game looked close … right up until it wasn’t. I tend to forget our stellar offense through the previous games when pining for a little more last night. As long as we can get back on track and plague those pesky Bernie Brewers tonight and tomorrow, that’s fine by me. Frankly, no NL team appears to have “it” this year anyway. I’m thinking whoever emerges from the AL (especially Boston or Cleveland) will make short work of the NL challenger this October.

  16. Let the PA play Henry Mancini’s theme from Mr. LUCKY before every game.

  17. Per ESPN’s David Schoenfield

    The Reds are now 1-16 in games Homer Bailey starts, which means they’re a respectable 54-54 in games he doesn’t start. The worst team record in the wild-card era (minimum 20 starts): the 2010 Mariners went 3-17 in Ryan Rowland-Smith’s starts.

    • I’m certainly not a Homer fan and have never understood the Reds continued fascination with him but I highly doubt the Reds would have won a high percentage of those games if he hadn’t started. The best would be .500 or slightly below. Just basing that on how they have played all year regardless of who is on the mound. It also surprises me how so many people here still think Homer can be part of the future in any way,shape or form.

      • As of now Homer is a part of the future one way or another. It is unlikely they let him go at this point and if he is DFA’d his $20+ million paycheck is money not being used to improve the team. As a fan all you can do is hope he pitches well

  18. I would gladly take a 2019 Homer Bailey that has pitched like he has since he came off of the DL. He has gotten no to very little run support in those 5 starts, 7 total runs. Only one stinker game and 4 good starts.
    I have soured on his attitude a little. But I think those that call him a locker room cancer, a distraction to the team, and whatever are very misinformed and and are making erroneous statements. I see him talking to other players in the dugout during TV shots of the dugout. And during the home plate celebration of Ervin’s recent walk off HR there was #34 right there in the middle of it jumping up and down with the rest.
    The younger pitchers just haven’t developed as most of us have hoped. Lorenzen, Reed and Garrett already are in the pen. Romano is about to join them. Finnegan is way back in the AAA bullpen. Mahle back at AAA. Stephenson is mucking up his last shot at the rotation. Like it or not, Bailey is pitching pretty decently since his DL return. He is pitching like a good #3 or #4 starter right now.
    For 2019, the rotation has DeSclafani, Castillo, and Bailey locked in at #2-#4. However you want to arrange it. Not one other pitcher has risen to the occasion to claim a spot for next year.
    For that reason, if Bailey continues to pitch like he has since coming off the DL, we ought to stop complaining about Bailey and complain about the non-existent run support, and the manager.

  19. Homer has been good enough in all but one of his starts since his return.We just haven’t scored any runs for him.His results from last night I will take day in and day out from him or anybody else.

  20. I felt like when they fired Dusty Baker they made a good move. They needed to get over that hump of not being to win in the playoffs. Now, I think they need to bring Dusty back. I am positive he could be worth 10-20 more wins a season just by how his players rally around him. I don’t necessarily agree with everything he does. But he is a proven winning manager in the regular season. I’ll take playoffs over finishing last all day, every day. Bryan Price was taken out of his element when he was put in as manager. Or maybe his pitching coach skills were elevated by the likes of Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Bronson, Homer, and Latos. Who knows?

  21. I don’t put too much significance in one road loss with Hader coming in early to nail down 6 outs and secure the W. Let’s see what Romano and Stephenson do against a playoff lineup.

    Bailey was ok and he certainly deserves to have won 4-5 games. That said, he’s not that power pitcher from 2013 with 8.5k/ 9 innings and 4 WAR and 208 innings with 199 K.

  22. Bailey xFIP is 4.72, 6th from the bottom of pitchers with at least 80 innings thrown. He also has the 7th highest “hard contact” rate of said pitchers, with the 2nd to last “soft contact” rate.

    He has pitched better since coming off the DL, but he’s still a below average pitcher.

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About Steve Mancuso

Steve grew up in Cincinnati as a die-hard fan of Sparky's Big Red Machine. After 25 years living outside of Ohio, mostly in Ann Arbor, he returned to the Queen City in 2004. He has resumed a first-person love affair with the Cincinnati Reds and is a season ticket holder at Great American Ball Park. The only place to find Steve's thoughts of more than 140 characters is Redleg Nation. Follow his tweets @spmancuso.

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