Tonight the Reds open a 10 game road trip with the first of two games versus the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. The Reds (48-58; 5th place NL Central) are 5-5 in 10 games since the All Star break. After being swept by the Pirates in their first post break series, they  have bounced back to win  5 of  7 games. The Tigers (45-62; 3rd place AL Central) are also 5-5 over their last 10 games.  Despite being in 3rd place in their division, the Tigers have a  worse record than the Reds and are only half a game closer to the top of their division than are the 5th place Reds to the top of theirs. Game time is 7:10pm.

Starting Pitchers

Reds right hander Homer Bailey will face off against Tiger leftie Matthew Boyd at the game’s beginning.

Tonight will be Homer Bailey’s second  start since returning from his most recent stint on the DL.  Last week in an encouraging return versus the Cardinals, Bailey pitched 6.2 innings allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits while striking out 8. He was able to control the flow of the game by throwing  first pitch strikes. The effort mirrored Bailey’s strong opening at the beginning of 2018 season prior to him slipping off into deep mediocrity and eventually landing on the DL. Fans can only hope Bailey will remain healthy and maintain the strong level of performance he posted last week because with about $35M guaranteed remaining due on contract, Bailey figures to be around at least through the end of the 2018 season.

Matthew Boyd faced the Reds on June 19 at GABP. He lasted just 4 innings in the game won 9-5 by the Reds. Boyd allowed 5 runs in those 4.0 innings of work with the big blow being  a Joey Votto grand slam he gave up as the Reds cruised to a 9-0 lead before the Tigers posted all 5 of their runs in the 9th inning. Since that start Boyd has been on a rough road, pitching to a 6.90 ERA in 6 starts. However in his last two appearances he has allowed just 3 earned runs in 11.0 innings of work.  MLB.com notes that Boyd typically makes good use of the sizable dimensions of Comerica Park, pitching to a 3.40 ERA and allowing a slugging percentage of just .328 on his home ground.

PITCHER FIP IP/ Start HR/9 BB% K%
Homer Bailey 5.84 5.1 1.97 8.2% 14.5%
Matthew Boyd 3.99 5.1 0.99 8.3% 21.8%

Once upon a time before TJ surgery, Homer Bailey’s K% hovered at around 20% and his HR/9 rate was around half of what it is now. Whether he can get back anywhere close to those numbers is the $35M question.

Bullpens

Both teams were off on Monday and should be at full strength tonight.

Lineups

            REDS

SP: Homer Bailey

            TIGERS

SP: Matt Boyd

1. Jose Peraza (SS)
2. Phillip Ervin (LF)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
5. Scooter Gennett (DH)
6. Tucker Barnhart (C)
7. Dilson Herrera (2B)
8. Brandon Dixon (RF)
9. Billy Hamilton (CF)
1. JaCoby Jones (CF)
2. Nicholas Castellanos (RF)
3. Niko Goodrum (2B)
4. Victor Martinez (DH)
5. Jeimer Candelario (3B)
6. John Hicks (1B)
7. James McCann (C)
8. Jose Iglesias (SS)
9. Mike Gerber (LF)

 

I like this look for the Reds given that Schebler will go back in when he returns from the DL. Hopefully when that happens, Ervin is not the odd man out. It will be interesting to see if Gennett plays any OF to give Herrera more looks at 2B.

News and Notes

You’ve probably heard already but if not, this happened late Monday

Here’s a guy the Reds won’t be seeing tonight.  Perhaps Billy Hamilton is still a Red because of this deal?

Final Thoughts

Well, are you happy with the way the trade deadline played out with the Reds?  The deadline has passed; and, apparently the Reds only move has been the trade of Adam Duvall.

A part of me was sad to see Adam Duvall leave. He has been one of my favorites since he exploded onto the scene with his big first half in 2016. I’d stop whatever else was sharing my time with following the Reds game just to see his at bats and appreciated seeing the replays of some of his defensive exploits I missed in real time. However,  I understand it was time for the organization to make this move; and, the fact they got what appears to be outstanding return for him makes it even better.  Thanks Adam for your efforts. I hope you find yourself in the postseason with the Braves and do well.

Now I’m excited to (hopefully) see a lot more of Phillip Ervin in the next two months. If he can reach his draft day potential (#27 overall 2013) he should be at least as good as Jesse Winker (#49 overall 2012). And then there is that wave of young outfielders making noise at AA,  A+ and on down the line. Life goes on.   GO REDS!


Data courtesy of Fangraphs and MLB.com

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Join the conversation! 59 Comments

  1. The forecast is for rain in Detroit this evening. But by no means am I gloomy about what the Reds did before the deadline passed.

    I’m very interested to see if anyone can tell me what they expected to get for Harvey

    .

    • I’ve been checking every several minutes since this post went up and the Tigers still don’t seem to have posted a lineup. Maybe they have insight on the weather?

    • I would have expect 2 high minor bullpen arms boardline top 30 prospects or 1 low minor lottery pick in the 15 to 20 range.

      My guess is that the Reds were looking for better and are hoping to get their price in August.

      My fear is that they have convinced themselves that Harvey will resign at a discount.

  2. The domination of AL Basement Dwellers resumes tonight. (Weather permitting).

    Go Redlegs.

  3. Good to see Harvey remaining as a Red, it’ll help to continue developing the rotation, perhaps Mahle or Romano will be shut-down soon. I wonder how the OF will fold next season with so many corner options (Schebler, Winker, Ervin, Tucker) and only two natural CF’ers in Hamilton and Williams.

  4. Regarding trade deadline, the most interesting aspect to me isn’t Harvey not being traded. Plenty here at RLN questioned on the day he came if he could be flipped and whether it was worth the opportunity cost of missed starts for the young arms in Louisville.

    No, the most interesting thing is Dick WIlliams touting the winning culture and “we don’t want to do anything to disrupt it.”

    https://twitter.com/JeffWallner/status/1024318713661726720

    As of today, the Reds are projected to finish 73-89.

    Guess Riggleman will be back next year on a full-time basis. Replacing the manager would sure seem to be “disrupting a winning culture.”

    (There is a reason family members hold the top positions in the Reds organization. No MLB executive who values his/her career would publicly oversell a situation like this. Would another team hire Dick WIlliams right now as president of their baseball operations?)

    • “Would another team hire Dick WIlliams right now as president of their baseball operations?”

      Thank you for the insight. To my old mind that question has never been posted and the answer to that ? answers any and all questions about the Reds.

    • Management does seem to be putting a lot of weight on winning as many games possible this year.

  5. Nice to see the average innings the starters pitch, that’s nice to see! Useful stat you don’t see shown, thanks!

  6. I saw a shirt today at Cincyshirts: “Rigglemania!”

  7. I really hope they give Ervin some run here! This could be a real opportunity for him! He had a .864 ops at Lville….thats better then Senzel was doing. Schebler can’t throw so I’d put him in LF when he gets back. Ervin in CF and platoon Tucker/Dixon in RF. In reality it will be Billy, Schebler, and maybe Ervin comes in a distant 3rd and gets some regular playing time? Forgot about Mason Williams….like him more then Tucker actually. Anyway you slice it…you have 3 CFs so no reason to put Schebler back in CF and he can’t throw. LF should be mandatory for him.

  8. My degenerate play for tonite is Reds +.5 (-130) 5 innings. All they have to do is to be ahead or tied thru 5!

  9. I really thought schebler was gonna have a monster year but now I’m thinking Austin kearns,hurt quite a bit,sure hope he comes back

  10. Ervin doesn’t score from 2nd on a double off the wall? No need to be going back to 2nd to tag up.

  11. My God I hate dumb baseball!!! Deaf, dumb, and blind baseball actually. He had the same view from 2nd base that we do from the CF camera….could he not see or hear that Votto got all of that one? Cmon?

    • Gambler’s lament?

      • Its Homer after all…didn’t bet much. Dumb baseball always irritates me. Some guys have more talent then others, but you don’t have to be clueless out there.

  12. That was really bad wasn’t it.

  13. Homer might have another 50 mil coming stay tuned:)

    Schebler 2-2 with a bomb tonite in Toledo. He’ll prob be in there tomorrow? He’s our Charlie Blackmon if he runs with it!

    • I went to a Rockies game this year at Coors. I didn’t here anyone complaining about Blackmon’s defense. The guy can hit.

  14. 407 feet at Commerica only lands you in the first row in right-center

  15. Rookie mistake and a bad one. He needs to play. Reds committed to elite offense with Winker and Schebler yesterday so a player like Ervin could be a solid 4th outfielder being able to play all 3 spots and fill in with speed.defense and a RH bat. Alex blandino is the versatile infield equivalent. Both need experience and both are Swiss army knives.

    • Thom and Welsh are full of bs right now….talking about how BobSteve has had opportunity after opportunity?

      3.30 in the 2nd half last year!!!! Does that not count? Thats taking an opportunity and doing well with it! When has Romano had a run like that for 60-70 ip….whatever it was?

      • They are managing the media on why Homer and Harvey are pitching and Stephenson is not. Loyal corporate soldiers. In fairness, I doubt a year from now this will an issue. DW talked today about the young “inventory” of pitchers with Castillo / Ramono/ Mahle/ Stephenson/ Reed/ and Sims and how fun ST will be as they compete to field the best 25 man roster. I could see Sal and Reed in the bullpen and he specifically mentioned Sims had an option next year.

        • I heard and thought about the same. It is like nobody can be sent down because the guy beating on the door might actually be better? Mahle in particular has had probably his worst 2 starts of the year in his last 2 appearances.

  16. Schebler up for Dixon can’t happen fast enough

    • Dixon is just lost at this level. He has to be hitting 91 mph fastballs at AAA? He’s been killing it down there. Its in his head. He’s 0-2 after 2 pitches every atbat

      • But I’ll bet it will be Williams or Ervin or the new guy (Tucker) instead of Dixon because he can play every where beside C, SS, CF.

  17. If THOM has a polar opposite, the color guy for Detroit is it. They need to check this guy for a pulse.

  18. Homer with a great curveball tonite? Where did that come from? Of course Thom called it a split when he K’d the first batter, but that big loop gives it away.

    I may change my mind on Homer?

  19. Billy Hamilton not hitting can’t happen fast enough lol. I realize the Reds biggest weakness is starting pitching. They are also not great great defensively which Billy is their best defender. But watching Billy Hamilton hit, omg.

    If you just keep it simple, either someone gets traded or the Reds plan would be to play either Schebler or Senzel in CF. Unless of course their plan was to not play one of Schebler, Winker, Senzel, or Gennett every day. The Reds have done some dumb things but I can’t believe without a trade they wouldn’t want these guys in the lineup every day.

    They don’t seem to believe that Senzel or Suerez should or could be playing SS every day.

    Is there something I’m missing or without a trade of one of the mentioned above, it definitely seems like the plan would be to play either Senzel or Schebler in CF.

    Or is there not a plan ? Maybe that’s the answer.

    • Still have a whole off season to go through. Somebody will be traded for some pitching.

    • Billy is on an island with his 5 loyal RLN supporters. He s not an everyday CF. He cant hit . He cant even steal a base anymore. The national media Twitter comments on MLB traderumors the last few days were brutal- particularly on how the Indians desperately needed a CF but Hamilton hitting was so bad he was not in the discussion. No one wants him.

      Thankfully- DW gets it. Offense and OBP and runs are important.

      • I cant imagine a weaker hitting outfield than what the reds fielded tonite

      • The National media has been pretty much spot on with the Reds organization. Several articles pointing out how the Reds overvalue their own players and for some reason refuse to trade at their peak value.

        Hamilton is an awful hitter, not surprising that no other team wants him. Yet, the Reds are going to be paying him over 10 million a year soon

  20. RN is cranky lately.

  21. Maybe Homer can put together 3-4 solid starts and some team will be dumb enough to put a waiver claim in for him. A man can dream right?

  22. Peraza with 4 weak popups tonite. I’ve never seen a guy with a decent batting average hit the ball softer in my life! Then they get Dilson on to lead off an inning and he stands there all inning….while their pitcher throws big slow curves half the time? He didn’t even run with Peraza up and 2 outs? He can only hit a single so it might be wise to try to get to 2nd? Passive on the bases when speed is the only thing that some of these guys bring to the table and yet bunt happy at the same time?

  23. Peraza refuses to dive for balls up the middle

  24. When Peraza does go to the ground it seems like it’s feet first and awkward. It’s like he either doesn’t know how or is scared.

    But it does pretty much seem like if he can’t get to it from his feet or some feet first half slide, then he isn’t going to get it or even knock it down in most cases.

    I remember one in particular in the last Cubs series that contributed to costing the Reds the game.

    • Yeah….it was Baez that hit it. If he just stops the ball then it saves a run and we lost by 1

  25. Detroit is AAAA… But Homer pitched well and good for Darwin to stretch him out .
    Reds offense without Winker and Schebler can’t win games. 1 step forward.

  26. And now Peraza not being able to make that play cost a run here as well.

  27. Two straight lights-out starts for Homer. If this continues, this would be just like signing a big-money starting pitcher free agent. 😉 (One that gets people out.)

    • So, if Homer pitches well to the end of the season, do you trust him to be able to come out of the chute clean next spring? If it were Disco, I wouldn’t because his issues three years running have been getting started back up. But Homer?

      I think you go on and follow through with previous plan and if everybody comes through deal from a position of strength.

      • What I truly think should happen (but it won’t) is that all of the candidates for major league starting pitcher are placed into an open competition in spring training next year. Nobody on the starting pitching staff has done enough to merit a guaranteed spot in the rotation in ’19. If Bailey continues to pitch well, then he will certainly have a spot next year, provided he doesn’t break down again next year. There are enough arms with enough experience that if you tell them all, go fight it out and may the best men win, hopefully you’ll get the four or five best. The rest can go to the bullpen and-or Louisville to be ready in case of injury.

        • Sounds fair enough but there are situations with option status which could come into play.

          It is very difficult if not impossible to come by spring training data for activities that go on in the minor league “back 40” so to speak where Bailey and Castillo did much of their prep work during the spring to allow for maximum exposure of the other guys to MLB level competition. However in retrospect I keep recalling that the sparse reports we got on both Bailey and Castillo seemed to indicate that both of them were being knocked around a fair amount in the process of “getting in” their prep work. Perhaps this should have been a warning sign. Perhaps it was but concerns were held in close quarters.

  28. Where was wanna be Captain Hook tonight?

  29. Nice outing by Homer

    Should Ervin really risk getting thrown out there?

  30. So frustrating for Homer. Every time he gets a quality start there is no offense. I like Barnhart but he choked in the worst possible way early on. The only thing worse than Harvey not being dealt was this game. Do better tomorrow boys.

  31. Ervin had a good night at the plate , but his baserunning blunder cost the Reds a run

  32. Billy Hatcher, it’s time to retire.

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