On the heels of their incredible ninth inning comeback last night, the Reds hope to get out the brooms tonight and sweep the Indians into Lake Erie in the series final. Same Bat Time; Same Bat Channel (7:10pm Eastern Fox Sports Ohio).

Starting Pitchers

Tonight will feature another battle of right handers, Tyler Mahle for the Reds versus Carlos Carrasco. for the Indians

At just 23 years of age Tyler Mahle appears to be stepping to the head of the class among the Reds young starters.  In 7 starts since the first of June Mahle has compiled an ERA/FIP of 2.04/3.56 over 39.2 innings pitched.  While he still has bouts of control issues resulting in too many walks, he has offset the walks by severely cutting back on his HR/9 rate and striking batters at a rate of just better than 1 per inning.  Mahle is demonstrating that location, command and varying pitch speeds, even on the same pitch type, are all more important than raw speed for an MLB starting pitcher. Other young Reds pitchers  would be well served to grasp these concepts and follow Mahle’s example.

Carlos Carrasco, 31, was  signed by out of Venezuela by the Phillies in 2003. He came to the Indians in a 2009 trading deadline deal which most notably sent star pitcher Cliff Lee (43.5 career bWAR) to the Phillies. In 2015 Carrasco was installed into the Cleveland rotation and has remained there since making 103 starts and compiling and ERA/FIP of 3.55/3.24. Carrasco has earned 17.8 career bWAR, essentially all as pitching from the Indians rotation. Tonight will be Carrasco’s second start since returning from the DL following a forearm bruise suffered in mid June when he was struck by a line drive while pitching. He pitched 5 innings and allowed 3 ER in  his return July 6.  Carrasco throws his fastball (4 seamer/ sinker) on about 50% of  his pitches (mid 90MPH range) and mixes a curve, slider and change fairly equally on the remainder of his offerings.

Comparative 2018 Stats:

PITCHER FIP IP/ Start HR/9 BB% K%
Tyler Mahle 4.58 5.1 1.46 9.7% 22.9%
Carlos Carrasco 3.59 6.0 1.21 5.5% 25.9%

Another Indians starter with a very high K rate; and, this guy is stingy with the BB’s too.

Bullpens

The Reds pen looks to be in overall good shape thanks to Sal Romano’s strong effort on Tuesday. Raisel Iglesias would be pitching for a third consecutive day if called upon. However Iglesias has thrown just 20 pitches combined in the last two days and is probably available for a 3 out save attempt, especially given the Reds are off on Thursday. Nonetheless don’t be surprised if Jim Riggleman goes in a different direct to open the ninth if he has a 2 or 3 run lead.

Cleveland closer Cody Allen threw 31 pitches in his failed save attempt Tuesday and would seem to be a question mark at best for tonight. All other hands look set such as they are.

Lineups

            REDS           INDIANS
1. Scott Schebler (RF)
2. Jose Peraza (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Scooter Gennett (2B)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Jesse Winker (DH)
7. Tucker Barnhart (C)
8. Adam Duvall (LF)
9. Billy Hamilton (CF)
1. Francisco Lindor (SS)
2. Michael Brantley (LF)
3. Jose Ramirez (3B)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (DH)
5. Yonder Alonso (1B)
6. Jason Kipnis (2B)
7. Yan Gomes (C)
8. Tyler Naquin (RF)
9. Greg Allen (CF)

Not a lot of creativity in the Reds lineup as they are just using the DH to  accommodate the outfield rotation members.

News and Notes

Michael Lorenzen in the Home Run Derby?

Should Nick bring a broom to the game tonight?

A possible trading partner for the Reds?

Fans express their feelings about the Reds.

It is perfectly OK this happened last night since the Reds got the last laugh!

Final Thoughts

The good guys came out on top again last night in the latest exciting episode of Who Are Those Guys Wearing Reds Uniforms? This team seems to be growing by leaps and bounds. They get burned, sometimes twice, but take their medicine and bounce back. Over the last three weeks they have played really good baseball against several very good teams. There are important, even crucial, personnel decisions ahead for the Reds front office as the trade deadline approaches. Whatever the front office decides to do, let’s hope they find a way to bolster and ensure the future while avoiding a giant step back to the recent boring and distasteful recent past. GO REDS!


Data and Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference Fangraphs and www.MLB.com

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/jim.walker.79
ohiojim67@hotmail.com
@jn_walkerjr

Join the conversation! 77 Comments

  1. More news for you Jim. I posted this in the other thread.

    More news from Bobby Nightengale at the Enquirer.

    “Homer Bailey will continue his rehab assignment as a starter, per GM Nick Krall. He will return to rotation when he’s done with rehab.”

    Oh, I don’t like where this is heading.

    Reply
  2. I hope he doesn’t come back to rotation,this will kill the Reds momentum.I really believe the team has a shot to make playoffs.

    Reply
    • They are 10 games out of the wild card and need to pass about 8 teams. That alone will be hard to overcome. That doesn’t even take into account the impending loss of Harvey or any of the relievers. Even if the Reds keep all of them and leave Homer in the minors those other teams are also looking to upgrade at the deadline

      Reply
  3. C trent is reporting he is starting Friday, will make another start then return to the Reds rotation. Trade Harvey abd replace him with Homer. That’s tanking – plain and simple. It’s also not part of a rebuild.

    And Williams says spending money depends on the fans support?

    Reply
    • I will not attend a game at GABP in which Homer is the scheduled starting pitcher.

      Reply
    • Realistically what do you expect? They’re paying him a fortune to start. You’re trying to recoup Anything they can. Frankly it’s common sense and good management.

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      • Seat101;
        I don’t disagree that Reds management will put Homer in the rotation. It is strictly a financial move. If he was to win 3 and lose 6 or 7, they will be happy.
        Not that I agree with the move, it is just the way they operate. Based on media in LA the dodgers are really interested in “Scooter”. It will be interested to see if the Reds pull it off and get a ML player back.

        Reply
        • I don’t expect it to bear any fruit, either. Yeah I’m not surprised they’re doing it.

          Yeah, I think no more than 48 hours after the end of the All-Star game Scooter is in another team’s uniform.

          Reply
      • What do I expect? I expect the Reds’ FO to realize that Bailey’s a sunk cost who has sunk, and that continuing to trot him out there stifles the development of youngsters who should be given a shot at that slot in the rotation. THAT is common sense.

        Reply
    • Is his rehab time frame up at that point? What are the team options, assuming they do not feel he is ready? Also, why put him in the bullpen for the 2 inning session and give lip service to seeing how his arm responds to relief pitching? I don’t like the mixed messages. Who is calling the shots here?

      Reply
  4. The only way bringing Homer back to the rotation makes any sense is if he returns as the Homer of the 2012-2014 era. We all know that won’t happen. Probably (at least I hope) what has happened is that Bob Castellini wants one more look to see if anything is left before he cuts Homer loose and swallows about $40 million.

    Reply
    • Since the end of 2014, Homer is 9-19 with a 6.49 ERA. Obviously he’s had very bad luck with serious arm injuries. But there seems very little light at the end of his current four-year statistical tunnel.

      Reply
    • I think they are hoping for some sort on improvement like Harvey showed otherwise they are out $21 million with nothing to show next year.

      Reply
    • Bob C. theory is very possible as reason for Bailey returning to rotation. Would like to see if injury was sole reason for bad pitching this year, but hate to see momentum Reds have to be stalled by Homer.

      Plus Stephenson probably deserves a shot.

      Reply
  5. On another topic, I think we’ve reached a tipping point with Jose Peraza. Did you see how Joey can use him on the telecast after the game last night? I take it as a sign that Joey thinks Jose has arrived

    Reply
  6. Homer might make a decent bullpen pitcher. He seems to run into trouble when he goes through the lineup multiple times. If he were in the bullpen, maybe he could crank things up just a tad and put a little more giddyup on his fastball if he knows he’ll only be throwing about 20-40 pitches, max. He might make a decent mopup guy, or he could surprise us and actually be pretty good.

    But he has no business being in the rotation ever again.

    Reply
    • Isn’t Homer’s ERA over 9.0 in the first inning this season? Problems the first time thru the lineup as well….

      Reply
  7. HOmer returns while BobSteve stays? Are you kidding me? I haven’t been down I-74 in years because of this kind of nonsense?

    As for this game….didn’t score but drove up the pitch count and getting into their pen can be profitable!

    Reply
  8. Yeah lets trade Scooter and force Homer on the fans. Homer is not even a nice guy? He’s surly and has a weird personality. I can’t remember a Red I’ve liked less? $100 mil on the basis of 2 meaningless no-hitters….one season of 3.49 or whatever it was? Disco had a 3.28 in 2016 and didn’t see where they gave him the big bucks?

    Reply
    • Disco wasn’t a free agent. If he continues pitching well he will get the money. The Bailey contract is only horrible because he got hurt. At the time it was inline with what others were getting. Unfortunately like the Mesoraco injuries the Reds gambled and lost

      Reply
  9. Ramirez is the most underpaid player, not still under original team control, in the game of baseball.

    Reply
    • Lindor and Ramirez are outstanding hitters and players As a fan of baseball, I like watching them play. Trevor Bauer was remarkable last night . Indians have 4-5 incredible players.

      Reply
      • Its too bad they were missing Carrasco (and Salazar?) in the WS. Maybe you Cincinnati guys would hate to see Cleveland win anything but I despise the Cubs.

        It is crazy though….how much talent they have but 12-15 of their guys aren’t even average.

        Reply
        • I grew up in southern Ohio, but now live in Cleveland area. Have season tickets to the single a lake county Indians affiliate up here. Have a picture of my kids with lindor there, when he could not have weighed 160 pounds, and was the nicest kid you could ever meet. I have no problem rooting for this group of Indians when our interests do not conflict.

          This week though to heck with them…

          Reply
          • I go to a Lake County game every year and to about 2-3 Akron Rubberduck games and try to go to a Mahoning Valley game if I can . Planning on going at end of August. I enjoy both Classic Park & Canal Park in Akron more than Progressive Field.

        • The cub’s announcers are obnoxious pukes. The Indian announcers are cool. They are easy to listen to, don’t go off on meaningless tangents (e.g. like Thom Brennaman), keep an even keel throughout the game describing their players and the opposition. A complete 180 degrees from the cub announcers.

          Reply
        • I have no problem with the Indians, but I would gladly give the city of Cleveland to the state up north

          Reply
          • Probably a bad time to mention I am a U of M grad as well 🙂

            Agree with you on the substance though. Cleveland management/governance is embarrassing.

      • Ramirez is signed this year for 2.8. Next year is 4.1, then 6.6, and 9.1. Indians then have options that in his 2023 age 30 season would pay him 13. We have learned the hard way that long term extensions do not always work, but when they work man do they work.

        Reply
        • Indians have done a good job at keeping young players under club control deals. Guys like Brantley, Kluber, Carrasco, Ramirez, Kipnis, Allen had all signed team friendly deals. Brantley, Allen, & Miller are FA after this year and probably won’t be re-signed which except for Brantley might be a good thing because Allen & Miller don’t have a lot of tread in the tires. Kluber signed through 2021 , Carrasco 2020, Ramirez 2023 but Lindor not locked in deal as of yet. Should be able to have about 2-4 year window to compete.

          Reply
          • It is easy to wishcast trades between teams you know, but this is why I have always thought the Indians are a natural fit for Iglesias. It extends the bullpen this year, and gives them a controllable option when Allen/Miller depart. You want a grand bargain, with Chisenhall gone for the year, package an outfielder and ask for Bieber/Meija.

  10. Just read through the thread and saw the Homer news. If you wanted to be really charitable, you could interrupt this as an organization, knowing it is not competing this season, wanting to give a long time player one last chance to build some value or at least go out on a good note.

    If you wanted to be charitable. I have to believe they understand sunk costs. And opportunity costs. I just have to….

    Reply
  11. Adam Duvall is tied for 2nd in the league with 33 RBI on the road per Thom.

    Paul Oneill in his 50’s would have more RBI than Duvall hitting behind 3 of the top 6 obp guys in the NL.

    Reply
  12. Marty on radio tonight:”This is no lock on Dustiy but according to Dusty he never made a mistake”

    Sidenote Marty’s son does not know the difference between “tactics” and”strategy””
    And it drive me crazy Because he does it almost every game

    Reply
  13. Astros send Ken Giles to minors. Got to think they will be looking for bull pen help with deadline approaching.

    Reply
  14. Our infield defense is really bad.

    Reply
  15. You have to admire Francona using his top three hitters at the top of the order. I wonder why Reds seem to have such trouble with that concept.

    Reply
  16. Apologize for the intrusion but being out of market I only get to see the games on a limited basis. Can I ask the community what you think of Peraza’s defense? Not sure I trust the fangraph stats over his sample size, but my limited eye test seems to be average to a tick below?

    Reply
    • I don’t think he will ever win the gold glove, but he has appeared to be improving. Maybe he ends up slightly above average

      Reply
    • Please remember that Peraza is stuck between a converted short stop at third base eh is making a heck of a lot of errors and a sore arm second baseman who never had much mobility, anyway.

      By this time next year you’ll have a second baseman he can rely upon and a third baseman who’s gotten over his yips.

      Reply
  17. This is ugly all the way around? They’re off tomorrow….put Lorenzen in for 2-3 innings and see if we can rally? Mahle doesn’t have it tonite.

    Reply
    • No Mahle had 50 pitches starting the 3rd. He wasn’t going to make it to 6. Definitely not now. Sometimes after a big emotional win like last night you come out the next night flat. They are that tonight.

      Reply
  18. Trust ur eye test steelerfan

    Reply
  19. Me thinks Votto should have been the DH tonight and every night for that matter. His defense just sux.

    Reply
  20. I think Rainey needs to develop another pitch. Something offspeed perhaps? Cause he’s got a good arm but he ain’t Chapman fast.

    Reply
    • I caint imagine what this bullpen will look like if reds trade Hughes, Hernandez or iggy,rainey the same batti g practice pitcher that was up ealier

      Reply
  21. Suarez tanked getting to first. If he hustles through the bag, he’s safe. This isn’t the first time this season that Suarez has displayed poor base running.

    Reply
  22. Stephens is warming up.

    Reply
  23. Can someone throw in the towel?

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  24. Rainey is in shock.

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  25. Bernie kosar with a passing TD abd earnest byner with a rushing TD. Cleveland is a good team and responded from their worst worst loss of the year.

    Put herrera and Blandino in. On to St Louis.

    Reply
    • A loss is a loss, no matter the score. Put the bench in and forget about it. They won the series and that’s what matters.

      Reply
  26. I’m pretty sure there will be no comeback tonight.

    Reply
  27. Reds were due for a bad game, did not expect it to be a Mahle start

    Reply
  28. Cleveland kicks a field goal. 17-0.

    Reply
  29. Scooter has a bum shoulder. Does he pitch tonight?

    Reply
    • No, there has to be an announcement from the ballclub that “he has some minor shoulder tenderness” THEN he can pitch ineffectively.

      Reply
  30. Do we have a Bat-Signal fir Jackson Stephens? Because I think we’ve identified an appropriate time to use it tonight.

    Reply
  31. Looks like the Indians are wearing their hitting shoes tonight.

    Reply
  32. The ninth inning comeback is going to be historic

    Reply
  33. I know it’s 11-0 but Suarez can’t trot to first like that because errors like last inningled to big innings and if he was running he’s on base.

    Reply
  34. Rainey and “Jackass” Stephens need to go. NOW!!!

    Reply
  35. It would be interesting to hear from Reds magt on what they really believe the upside is to keeping Homer on the roster. I would love to hear a reason from our billionaire owner.

    Reply
  36. I agree about the Cleveland announcers, I wish the Reds could find a couple like them.

    Reply
  37. Ok, the bullpen is in now. Here’s the time to start chipping away at the mountain.

    Reply
  38. The Reds comeback last night started at 9:25. With Scooters home run at 9:32 , I would say the comeback part 2 is on!

    Reply
  39. Herrera in LF?

    Reply
  40. Blandino for the rotation.

    Reply
  41. Let’s look on the bright sides ide.W not the only team having a bad blowout tonight. The D-Backs are being shellacked by Colorado 13-1 right now.

    Reply

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