After last night’s game in which Matt Harvey’s trade value decreased and no one except Curt Casali could hit a rookie lefty pitcher, the Reds (21-38) and Padres (26-34) face each other in the rubber match of the series. It’s an odd start time for this game, as on a Sunday evening, first pitch is at 6:10 ET.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA xFIP K% BB%
Luis Castillo 62.1 5.49 3.95 22.5% 9.2%
Tyson Ross 65.2 3.29 3.47 24.9% 8.8%

Luis Castillo will try to bounce back from a poor performance in Arizona last Tuesday where he gave up four hits and five runs, four of them earned, in only five innings pitched. While he struck out six, he also walked three.

Castillo has already given up 12 home runs in 2018, one more than he gave up in all of 2017. His HR/FB% in 2018 is 19.2%, compared to last season when it was 17.2%. Not only are more of the fly balls he gives up going out of ballparks, he is giving up more fly balls in general. In 2017, Castillo’s GB% was 58.8%. This year, it’s currently sitting at 47.6%. Meanwhile, his FB% has gone from 29.0% to 33.0%. Why is he giving up more fly balls?  It could have something to do with throwing more change-ups this season. In 2018, 26.8% of Castillo’s pitches are change-ups, up from 22.7% in 2017.

Castillo has faced the Padres before, albeit in limited at-bats.

luis castillo vs padres

Tyson Ross is the veteran of the Padres’ pitching staff and he’s also been the best pitcher in their rotation in 2018. He leads all Padres starters in nearly every category. In a wild year of injuries for Padres pitching, Ross has been a constant at the top of the rotation, which is a bit ironic because he’s coming back from injuries of his own.

After a shoulder injury in 2016 and thoracic outlet surgery in 2017, Ross seems to be returning to the pitcher he was in 2014 and 2015. Ross has already pitched more innings in 2018 than the last two seasons combined. His numbers reflect similarly with his numbers from the 2014 and 2015 seasons, particularly his K% and BB%. Ross has four pitches: fastball, slider, cutter, and change-up. The difference from four years ago to now is that he’s throwing a lot more breaking stuff, and it seems to be working for him.

Only four Reds have faced Ross in their careers. Scooter Gennett has had the most success off him.

reds vs tyson ross

Lineups

REDS PADRES
1. Jesse Winker (RF)
2. Tucker Barnhart (C)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Scooter Gennett (2B)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Adam Duvall (LF)
7. Jose Peraza (SS)
8. Luis Castillo (P)
9. Billy Hamilton (CF)
1. Travis Jankowski (LF)
2. Eric Hosmer (1B)
3. Jose Pirela (2B)
4. Christian Villanueva (3B)
5. Franmil Reyes (RF)
6. Freddy Galvis (SS)
7. Manuel Margot (CF)
8. Raffy Lopez (C)
9. Tyson Ross (P)

News and Notes

-Anthony DeSclafani will be back on the mound Tuesday.

-Interesting statistics on a comparison between Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler. I think this proves again that Duvall is an all-or-nothing hitter.

-A Reds prospect at Daytona is doing an incredible thing.

-More Reds prospects playing well.

 

Join the conversation! 35 Comments

  1. DeSclafani starting Tuesday is official. The Reds have the next 3 Mondays off plus a Thursday off on the 14th. That’s 4 off days on the next 2 1/2 weeks. Not a need for a 5th starter over the time. Wonder how this all shakes out? Add in a possible Lorenzen move too. Some big moves seem to be on the horizon.

    • I think the only move left in the rotation is if Romano can keep his spot or if Bob Steve takes his place. I don’t think Lorenzen will get a chance this year, nor should he…He’s tried starting twice and his arm didn’t hold up

      • Finnegan went 7 innings today in Louisville. He gave up 1 ER, 3 hits, 1 BB & 7K. He’s one of our top 5 sp when he’s healthy. I wouldn’t forget about him.

    • Looks like the only move on the current 25/40 man roster is to send a pitcher back to AAA. Disco is on the 40 man but inactive. Somebody needs to go.

  2. Prospects. Prospects. Prospects. Almost as frustrating a word as Potential. Potential. Potential. Well I guess it’s better to have them than not.

    • The All-Pro offensive guard Bill Fralic (later known for participating in Wrestlemania 2) was once asked about the potential of the Falcons rookies.

      His response: “Potential is just a French word meaning you aren’t worth a (darn) yet.”

      Still the best description of potential I have ever heard.

  3. Pickoff for the good guys for a change

  4. Luis Castillo hitting 97-98 mph out of the stretch in the 1st inning. Bears watching.

  5. Castillo threw some nasty pitches that first inning.. Suarez is locked in.

  6. SUAREZ!!!! bomb

  7. Very efficient pitching

  8. Three pitches, two outs.

    • I can’t remember a Reds starter starting the 3rd with only 24 pitches in the first 2. This season it seem that a pitch count of 24 usually happens with the 3rd or 4th batter in the 1st inning with only 1 out.

  9. Castillo looking good….only Hosmer has hit a few singles.

  10. His reaction after that last strikeout was more “old” Castillo…good to see.

    All day, he has had more of that confident vibe back, like he has figured something out, or was just simply locked in from the warm-up.

  11. Scooter doubles the lead with a nice 2 out opposite field single

  12. PH grand slam flips the script. Hanging slider. I’ve hardly seen him throw the wipeout chnmgeup

    • Was probably afraid to throw it too far outside with the bases loaded, bad pitch selection for that situation.

  13. The Reds have a rested bullpen and a day off tomorrow. This was a perfect day to yank Castillo as soon as the wheels started falling off this inning.

    • I’m not necessarily for that. Let the youngsters learn to pitch out of trouble in a year (another year) where it doesn’t matter. A single, bunt single, and a walk is nothing to push the panic button on.

      • I agree VA. Let the young pitchers figure out how to pitch in pressure situations.

        • You’re both probably right. It’s just that it was so obvious that Castillo had lost his focus.

  14. Grand slam on 1-2 pitch on a slider.

    SMH.

    Guys were not catching up to his fastball all inning, consistently above 95+.

    Wonder if Rosecrans can get Barnhart to walk through this at-bat after the game for The Athletic, like he did the other day.

  15. Jeez Louise. We’re down by two runs. It ain’t the end of the world.

    • Its not this game in particular….its just making the key UNFORCED mistake again and again and again and again! Castillo had the guy dead to rights and made absolutely the worst pitch possible. If its not the players then its Riggleman having guys giving away outs so Billy can suddenly turn into Hack Wilson RBI machine! It fails again and again and again and again. Its not entertaining to me. They have some entertaining players but they consistently ruin it with complete organizational stupidity from top to bottom.

  16. Amazing AB for Gennett. Dude is locked in

  17. WInker’s AB…strong candidate for longest, loudest single by a Reds player in 2018.

    Hit it too well, apparently (LOL).

  18. Same ole Hamilton, big smile after a strike out. Set him for a week and see if it changes him.

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2018 Reds, Game Thread

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