The Short Version: The Reds led 4-1 after three innings — thanks largely to good ol’ Eugenio Suarez — but Sal Romano can’t hang on. Reds lose.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (18-34) 4 8 0
Colorado Rockies (27-24) 5 8 0
W: Gray (5-6) L: Romano (2-6) S: Davis (18)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

The Good
–Eugenio Suarez seems to be getting back into a groove; tonight he went 2-3 with a homer, a run scored, and two runs batted in (plus an HBP). On the season, Suarez is now hitting .289/.367/.594, and he leads the National League in RBI, despite missing 16 games. That ain’t bad, friends and neighbors.

–Joey Votto was 2-4 with a double and two runs scored. Tucker Barnhart batted second again and had two more hits, plus a run scored.

–Wandy Peralta, Tanner Rainey, and Michael Lorenzen didn’t permit a single Colorado run in 2.2 innings of relief.

The Bad
–Once again, Sal Romano was not sharp. Handed a 4-1 lead, Romano surrendered it all. His final line: 5.1 innings, five runs allowed on eight hits and four walks, with five strikeouts.

–Jose Peraza has been (thankfully) dropped to seventh in the lineup, and he was 0-4 tonight. Despite one hot stretch, Peraza is hitting .243/.279/.317 in 2018.

–I love Suarez, but he made a bone-headed play defensively in the third. It wasn’t charged as an error, but it was a mental error, at least. Essentially, he took a cutoff throw from the outfield and, with Colorado runners stuck between both 1st/2nd and 2nd/3rd, Suarez inexplicably didn’t try to get the lead runner. As a result, all hands were safe.

Aaaah, whatever. Suarez has cool hair.

Not-So-Random Thoughts
–Reds could have won this one, but they didn’t, because they are the Reds, I guess. Cincinnati is now 13.5 games out of first place.

–The Reds got things started early. In the top of the first, Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett singled with one away, with Scooter collecting an RBI. After Suarez was hit by a pitch, Scott Schebler hit into the ever-popular RBI fielder’s choice, giving the Reds a quick 2-0 lead.

–The score was 2-1 when Votto doubled to lead off the third. One out later, Suarez homered to center, his 9th of the season. Reds 4, Rockies 1. Unfortunately, the Redlegs did not score again.

–Barnhart is hitting .271/.352/.417 this season, and I’ll take that, thank you very much.

–I’m really glad to see that Rainey has hit the ground running in his second shot at the big leagues. The kid has a chance to be a good reliever.

–My daughter’s softball team lost in their district tournament tonight, ending a disappointing season.

–Eight more games on this road trip after tonight. Tyler Mahle will return to the hill tomorrow night in another late-night affair. We’ll be following it with you, same bat time, same bat channel.

Tonight’s Tweets

Blame Chad for creating this mess.

Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

You can email Chad at chaddotson@redlegnation.com.

Join the conversation! 60 Comments

  1. Peraza might be too young to give up on, but sending him down to AAA to find some plate discipline probably wouldn’t be the worst idea.

    Romano might also be in line for a trip to AAA to find a better change. Disco didn’t pitch very well tonight but should be back soon. Homer isn’t going anywhere, so that probably leaves either Romano or Mahle to be the odd man out.

    Reply
    • Not too much too choose from now but, yes, when time is right, a Disco/Stephenson switch for Romano/Mahle should make it. However, I hope Mahle will have a strong outing tomorrow. I don’t think Peraza will improve his hitting in AAA at all, he’s just another lost cause, time to give Blandino more playing time. The offensive is good and the bullpen is even better, it’s the starting rotation what’s killing the Reds.

      Reply
      • Stephenson should never replace none, especially Mahle. Stephenson had his chance and he failed.

        Reply
        • This is a false narrative. The Reds misused him in the bullpen to start last season where he pitched so inconsistently there was no chance of success. Once he came back at the end of the July as a starter he pitched 60 innings with a 3.30 ERA, and 59 K’s. That is not failing by any stretch. He has things to work on, as he had 37 BB’s during that time, but all pitchers have things to work on. During the last three weeks in AAA Stephenson has made 4 starts, worked 24 innings with 31 K’s vs 7 BBs with a 2.25 ERA. Outside of two games (6.1 IP 11 BBs) he’s pitched well overall this season in AAA.
          Why does he not get another shot when other pitchers are struggling? Mahle needs to reduce the amount of HRs allowed. Romano needs a viable 3rd pitch he’ll use and also needs to work on his control. To suggest that Stephenson has exhausted his chances and should not be considered is either trolling with an agenda or demonstrates a complete lack of understanding on how baseball works.

          Reply
          • Thank you H4V. Stephenson may or may not end up being a decent ML pitcher but at this point the jury is still out. I hope he gets another consistent shot at starting for the Reds this year.

          • Mahle and Romano have demonstrated more in the MLB than Stephenson. I am fine letting another team give Stephenson a shot. Not trolling, just do not want him on the team.

          • Here, Here! You just saved me from going to Fangraphs and dredging out the numbers.

            But just for fun I did go look up Romano’s numbers from 2017. He made 16 starts, 87IP, 4.45 ERA. Stephenson’s and Romano’s inning per start were virtually identical.

            If we use FIP instead of ERA the comp is Romano 4.45/ Stephenson 4.22. Only is we extend out to xFIP does Romano come out better at 4.47/ 4.98. This is because xFIP which mitigates home runs against league average “punishes” RS whose HR/9 rate was actually lower than Romano’s.

            As I see it. If one of them failed in 2017, they both did.

          • Here’s some relevant numbers from the three as starters in MLB:

            Romano: 142 IP, 5.01 ERA, 112 K, 66 BB, 1.1 HR/9
            Stephenson: 97 IP, 4.36 ERA, 90 K, 56 BB, 1.3 HR/9
            Mahle: 73.2 IP, 4.03 ERA, 66K, 29 BB, 1.6 HR/9

            So it’s clear that Romano and Mahle have demonstrated more? To me it seems that they are relatively evenly grouped based on production as starters. It really depends on what you want to focus on. Based on run prevention, Mahle and Stephenson have been above average where Romano has not been. They all have issues to work on, Romano has the worst ERA, Stephenson the worst BB rate, Mahle the worst HR rate. Mahle has the least amount of innings (and his ERA is aided by 20 IP last season with a 2.70 ERA but 4.01 FIP) Likewise, Mahle has a 4.87 ERA since May began, compared to a 4.32 ERA in April, so it’s not like he’s necessarily trending upward at this moment in time.

            That isn’t meant to say that any of the three pitchers are awful, or that we should give up on the lot. It’s just that they’re all young, and inconsistent, and should be given more opportunities to improve. I’m not going to sit here and declare that Stephenson is going to out pitch both moving forward. He absolutely needs to tone down the walks because his rate is not a recipe for long term success. At the same time he’s shown over a period of time (in the minors) that he can go stretches where his control is solid and that he absolutely has ML stuff that can get guys out when he’s around the zone.

            I have no idea why anyone could look at these three pitchers and say Stephenson doesn’t belong or deserves another shot with the Reds. He absolutely has the best pure stuff of the three and honestly I believe he’s the only one of the three that could *potentially* find success as a top of the rotation pitcher. You don’t give up on that sort of ceiling, least of all with less than 100 IP as a starter.

            Disregarding how he’s done in comparison to the other young pitchers, he at least should be considered to replace Bailey in the rotation. Homer Bailey has just been brutal as a starter and is not part of the Reds future, yet you wouldn’t want to replace him with a 25 year old Stephenson who has by far out-produced Bailey when given the opportunity to start over the last year?

          • I believe the org’s issue with RS is two fold. First of all his BB rate/% is legitimately troubling. As his 2017 MLB xFIP as a starter versus his FIP (4.98/4.22) indicates he dodged some bullets. The other side of that coin, did he dodge them strictly from luck or perhaps because of his stuff did he come up with some big K’s when they made a difference? We could argue forever about that if we chose to.

            I believe the Reds org actually believes it wasn’t just all luck RS dodged a lot of the bullets in 2017; and, he’s getting the 2nd class citizen treatment because they are trying to push him beyond just skating along and barely/ mostly getting by and hope to find his true ceiling.

            Personally, if it were my call I’d have let events at the MLB level do the work because the luck side of things would have eventually caught up with him anyway and that I suspect in the long run would be greater motivation than being banished to AAA.

          • Taking a look at Romano, the relatively tight spread between his ERA/FIP/xFIP at the MLB level (5.89.5.40/5.08) would seem to indicate what we are seeing may well be the limit of his current skills. He needs to have that third effective pitch to be an MLB starter long run.

          • Oops. Blipped the numbers on Sal here. The numbers are above are 2018 ONLY. Here are the correct numbers for his entire MLB career:
            ERA/FIP/xFIP 5.01/4.71/.470.

            This actually reinforces what I said. The spread on him is tight pretty much regardless of where it is split chronologically. What he is; he is.

          • Good thoughts Jim. For whatever their reasoning, I do believe that the organization was trying to send a message to Stephenson by starting him in AAA. There’s really no other explanation why, coming off a solid stretch of starting at the end of 2017, he wasn’t one of the best 5 options to start the season (especially as Finnegan and Disco were injured). His BB% is an issue that he needs to work out. I do think you hit on something when talking about his stuff being able to get him out of bad situations. That’s an advantage Stephenson has over Mahle and Romano, his stuff can and has been able to compensate for his lack of control and command. At the same time he’s probably developed some bad habits, and possibly some bad philosophy when it comes to pitching.

            I agree I’d let him work it out at the ML level against the best hitters.

          • Good stuff Jim. I do think the reason Stephenson started the year in AAA was because the organization wanted to send a message. Stephenson does have enough stuff that he’s been able to get by without having to improve on his control/command. I think he’s probably developed some bad pitching philosophy and habits because of that. At the same time, if he’s going to improve upon it, I think it needs to be done at the ML level against the best hitters in the game. Being in AAA for the third straight year probably isn’t going to help a whole lot.

          • The main issue facing Stephenson right now, beyond his walk rate, is options. Stephenson has one option left. Once that option is gone, he remains on the 25-man roster or the Reds lose him on waivers. When the Reds bring him up this season, they are making a commitment that this is the last season he will ride the Louisville shuttle and they need his role defined as a starter or reliever before that happens.

            We know that if he can control his walk rate, then he can perform as a starter. We don’t know if he can perform as a reliever under any circumstances. If the Reds make a competitive run next season, such sorting at the MLB level will not be viable any longer.

          • I believe the option for the year (his last) was used when he was sent to Louisville. He can be sent up and down any number of times sub to the 10 day rule etc. However, next year he has to make the team out spring or be exposed to waivers, all the more reason he is a guy they need to be seeing at MLB level.

          • Jim, I had always understood that an option was excercised only when the player moved between MLB and MiBL, so any season that involved a player spending the entire time in MiBL did not burn an option. Your comment made me actually look up thye rule and I stand corrected, actually I’m reclining corrected, but you get my point. Thanks for correcting my long-held misunderstanding of the rule.

            With the new understanding, Stephenson needs to be on the 25-man roster and pitching when the Reds open the series in Arizona on 5/28. The Reds can do whatever they want with Bailey (bullpen, DFA, DL), but Stephenson needs to start for Reds on 5/28.

        • No second chances in baseball? If that were the case, there wouldn’t be enough players to staff one team.

          Reply
          • For Stephen this would be like his 3rd or 4th chance. It is a waste of time and money to keep trying with him. He does not have what it takes to be a successful pitcher. His control is poor.

          • How are you determining chances? Stephenson made two spot starts in April of 2016 (12 IP, 4 BB 4 K, 4ER). Then he was in the minors until a September call up. Then his next opportunity as a starter came in July of 2017 to finish the season (see numbers above). He’s been given two extensive looks as a starter and one came in a September call up.

            Do spot starts count as opportunities? Because then Sal’s on his third opportunity, and if he’s sent down to the minors this year, he’ll be on his 4th opportunity if he comes back. Should we all write him off then because he’s a waste of money? (This in itself is silly because they make league minimum and you couldn’t bring up anyone to replace them on the roster that would be cheaper) Do we determine he does not have what it takes as his results are similar or worse than Stephenson?

            Seriously man, I think you have an agenda against Stephenson.

          • Aren’t we all at least a little envious at times of someone who does well in life (read “well” as better than us) but seems to just be skating by and not fully engaged to the limits of their skills? It is not until we get comfortable inside our own skin that it is easy to day that as long as they aren’t endangering someone’s safety, more power to them.

          • Agreed. The Big Unit was prohibitively wild at the start of his career. But the mariners were patient and he turned out a little better than replacement I’d say.

            Nolan Ryan walked 4 guys per start. Also turned out half way decent.

            Growing aces is the hardest thing to do in any professional sport. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it (and alas, they’d no longer be considered Aces).

            There is hope for Bob Steve. Romano is a place holder.

    • He’s had over 1000 PAs at the Major League level. Over that span, he’s merely produced 0.2 war and an anemic 72 wRC+. Furthermore, his 3.6 BB% has indicated that he has horrible plate discipline and will never get on base at even a sub-par clip. In fact, according to Fangraphs, his walk rate is worse than awful. I have seen a large enough sample to be willing to give up on him. It’s time to move on from this guy imo. All of this despite being better than Juan Castro!

      At least he’s fast and creates chaos! Once again, we see the folly in choosing speed over actually being a good hitter.

      Reply
  2. That’s the most concerning thing about the rebuild – the SP better continue to grow and develop or this thing won’t get off the ground.

    Hearing BobSteve’s lines is very encouraging but it’s clear that Homer won’t have a veteran role like Votto. I just hope Disco can be a contributor or this Rotation is essentially working from scratch.

    Reply
  3. I want to stump again for Blandino and Peraza to switch roles. Blandino was a first-round pick, drafted as a shortstop, who is a slick fielder and has had OBPs around .360 everywhere he’s played. I know they want to give Peraza a full shot because he was the centerpiece of the Frazier trade, but I would think they would have a high commitment to a first-round pick, too. Peraza is simply not working out, and his lack of mental toughness is only going to make things worse.

    Reply
    • IllI vote for Blandino at SS. High OBP and a Stanford guy will get my vote over a speedy guy who’s game is based on making contact

      Reply
      • I do not believe Blandino can adequately field the position.

        Reply
        • He might not, but I am not sure there is anyone on the team who can. I haven’t checked Peraza’s stats lately, but he has either been at or below replacement level for defensive metrics the times I have looked. I admit I haven’t looked into Blandino’s numbers for comparison

          Reply
        • Blandino is a very good defensive 2B, much better than Peraza. Blandino is not nearly as good as a defensive SS, but he is as good as Peraza. If Peraza’s defense at SS is adequate, then Blandino’s defense at SS should be adequate also and Blandino is a much better offensive player, even though he doesn’t run as fast as Peraza. They play the game of baseball between the white lines. Track meets are held in an entirely different stadium.

          Reply
          • If we were willing to watch Cozart play for 3/4 of a season on 1 1/2 legs to get his bat in the lineup, then we should be willing to play Blandio, who is much more accomplished as a hitter (at this age) than Cozart was.

          • See, I get what you’re saying and maybe, right now today, Blandino’s defense at SS is about the same as Peraza’s. I’m not so sure about that though. I personally think Peraza, at SS, is a slightly better defender than Blandino right now. But, for argument’s sake, lets assume that they are equal. I think what the Reds are seeing and what I am thinking is that Peraza still has a good amount of room to grow defensively. Blandino on the other hand is probably not going to get much better defensively than he already is. The arm and pure athleticism just isn’t what Peraza’s is. Therefore, I’m thinking that Peraza has a higher defensive ceiling than Blandino and that Blandino probably won’t ever be a good enough defender at SS to be an everyday player there.

        • I’m inclined to agree. He can go out there and give you a few starts but he probably isn’t the guy you want at SS every day defensively.

          Reply
  4. Letting Romano hit in the 6th. inning with the score tied was puzzling. Does he have a reputation as a hitting pitcher?

    Reply
  5. I ti amazing to me how easily so many fans give up on young players, Peraza just turned 24. I do believe that he needs to go back to AAA with specific instructions to work on plate discipline and hopefully get some confidence in his swing and learn that MLB positions are earned not handed. Roman is still 24 (turns 25 in October) and Robert Stephenson, though he seems to have been a prospect forever is just 25. Playing MLB baseball is hard and for most players it takes a while. All of them have several years till they reach their prime years. That does not mean they should be on a MLB roster, except perhaps Stephenson. It does mean we should not give up on any of them at this point. Personally I think it would be best for Peraza and especially Romano to be sent to AAA to learn.

    Reply
    • Yes they’re 23-24 years old but Billy was once 24 yrs old as well! Sometimes you just are what you are. Letting them “bloom” in AAA would be fine…just remove them as a starting shortstop and starting pitcher. The Reds will take guys that actually flash some talent like Winker (.904 ops in 121 atbats last year) and give him the fewest atbats of the 4 outfielders. Or Alex Blandino and Brandon Dixon getting held up by Pennington and Goose despite outplaying them in spring training. They’ll hold them up and then take random guys like Peraza and Romano and stick with them come hell or high water?

      Just reward production with playing time. Punish lack of production with demotions or being benched. Its really not a difficult concept?

      Reply
    • I don’t think I have given up on Peraza, he can still improve. I just think his skillset is similar to that o Hamilton. I would like to see Blandino given a shot as I prefer the OBP he provides

      Reply
  6. I wrote something similar in the game thread but this team will be good or bad based primarily on how the 4th and 5th best starters perform. Right now that’s Bailey and Romano, and Sal has shown that he’s not ready to succeed in the rotation. I know BobSteve and Cody Reed have both struggled with walks at AAA, with signs of improvement lately. I know Amir Garrett has settled into a bullpen role. I know Keury Mella is still young at AA. But not one of those, or a handful of other options, could do worse than lose every game for the Reds. It’s time to rotate Sal down to Louisville – to work on command of the fastball and slider, and consistency with the changeup – and rotate Robert or Cody or Amir or Keury into the rotation for an extended audition.

    Reply
  7. I’ve been a big Lorenzen fan on here since day 1 and its good to have him back, but he’s too big! He’s went crazy on the weightlifting? Pitching is such an abnormal activity for the human body and you need flexibility….not a ton of bulk and huge biceps? They start Billy for 4-5 years now and never manage to get him any bigger or stronger? Then they let a guy with one of their most promising arms in the organization gain 30+ lbs of muscle? I don’t any other pitchers that look like that? He’s a hard worker and competitor which we all appreciate but more injuries would not be unexpected.

    Reply
    • Baseball generally, not just pitching, demands flexibility.

      Reply
    • I also noticed his size this season. Promise I won’t go on one of my rants about how he has been used/ misused/ developed; but, imagine how hard and far he can probably hit a baseball now!
      I’m wondering if he is getting his body ready for the next chapter as an attempt to be position player if for health or performance reasons the pitching doesn’t work out beyond this year or next?

      Reply
      • Jim: I’m not saying that strength has no influence on how far/hard a player hits a ball, but I’d bet that swing mechanics and pitch recognition skills are bigger factors. Most great sluggers of the past didn’t look like competitive weight-lifters, and the competitve weight-lifters who wouldn’t have a prayer of hitting MLB pitching are legion. Perhaps Lorenzen could hit at the MLB level, but his added bulk isn’t proof of that.

        Reply
        • I agree, Until and unless he is facing MLB pitching on a regular basis we don’t know if he can hit it. But people who have seen him taking BP swings seem to be impressed; and Brantley along with some other former pitchers now commentators have gone out of their way to comment that Lorenzen at the plate looks like a hitter and not a pitcher with a bat in his hands. And finally there is the fact that virtually every other MLB org projected him as a mid 2nd round choices as an OF, not a pitcher which us why the Reds spent the supplemental 1st round pick on him.

          Reply
          • Lorenzen as a power-hitting centerfielder is certainly an intriguing vision, particularly if the rest of the bullpen continues to excell, But trading Iglesias and moving Garrett to the rotation, as many of us advocate, might alter the calculations, particularly since the starters are largely leaving 4+ innings per game for the pen. Also, I’d assume that transitioning Lorenzen to the outfield would require–probably–significant time in the minors. He’s young, certainly, but if it took him a couple of years to be ready to return, he’d be a couple of years older and the Reds wouldn’t have had his services as a pitcher for that time. Such a path might very well be the end of his chances of being a productive MLB pitcher should the experiment fail. I’m sounding pessimistic, and it could well be that the process wouldn’t be nearly as time-consuming as I’m projecting, but Senzel, the consensus best hitter in his draft class, will have needed several years to get to the Reds. Still, your idea of trying him as a two-way player is appealing, particularly in what appears to be a lost season.

    • Thor and look what happened to him last year.

      Reply
    • Also keep in mind that muscle cell hypertrophy from strength training does not alter ligamental or tendinous composition in any way.

      You may have heard this before— ligaments and tendons are somewhat important in the overhand throwing motion known as pitching.

      Lorenzen will be hurt again soon I’m afraid.

      Reply
  8. Three games in a row with a 5-4 score. The Reds are 1-2 and should be 3-0. Riggleman let 2 wins get away. He really doesn’t deserve to be managing the Reds. Under-achievement is what Riggleman brings. We’ve been overdosed on under-achievement for 4 seasons running.
    The Reds Way and Riggleman’s Way is total under-achievement.

    Reply
    • Reds record in 1 run games total this years is unbelievable (of course to the negative side). If they were close to .500 there, it would be a huge difference for the season.

      Reply
  9. I like Blandino a lot but it’s way to early to give up on just turned 24 year old Peraza. As for the SP, Romano is probably the odd man out IF Disco can come back and pitch consistently. Love to see a healthy Disco with Harvey continuing to improve as well. That would be fun to watch.

    Reply
    • I don’t think people are giving up on these 2. Send them to AAA to work on their game. Sal has potential . He just needs a 3rd pitch. AAA is the place to work on that. Peraza needs to work on his patience at the plate. Todd Hollandsworth said last week that he isn’t comfortable at the plate. He swings at the first pitch and he needs to take some pitches. The more pitches Peraza sees the more comfortable he will be and then he will drive the ball. Interesting that the announcer for Colorado? can see this but Peraza and the Reds can’t. Or maybe Peraza doesn’t care. I wonder what Perazas numbers are when he gets to see a few pitches.

      Reply
      • In know that in a recent game, Peraza took the 1st 2 pitches of the plate appearance, both well within the hitting zone and called strikes. I had the impression that he had no intention of swinging at those pitches under any cirdumstances (orders from the manager/hitting coach or personal initiative). After foinf down 0-2, Peraza ended up walking in the plate appearance. I found that very interesting and thought provoking.

        Reply
        • Cossack do you have any numbers on what his average is or OBP on how many pitches he sees every at bat? I don’t know where you guys get thst stuff but always find it interesting. Wonder how many times he has swung at the first pitch? I see a lot more potential for him offensively than I ever did in Hamilton.

          Reply
          • I don’t think this specifically answers your question(s), but for 2018, Peraza is AVERAGING(!) 3.24 pitches per PA. I had to look it up to make sure, but it turns out it takes at least 4 pitches to walk. Peraza’s 3.24 P/PA includes foul balls.

            Just 222 of the 711 Peraza’s received this season were taken as balls (31.2%), leaving 489 pitches received as swinging or taken strikes.

            For a direct comparison, Blandino is averging 3.95 pitches per PA and 141 of the 363 pitches Blandino received were taken as balls (38.8%), leaving 222 pitches received as swinging or taken strikes.

            Peraza has 38 PA hitting 7th or 8th in the lineup, ahead of the pitcher. He has 2 BB & -0- IBB. Bandino has 53 PA hitting 7th or 8th, in front of the pitcher and has 6 BB & 1 IBB.

          • 3.24! Wow that has to lead the league. I’m not really sure what to say here. Pretty dumbfounded. Maybe he is trying to do his part in making the game faster.

      • Peraza sees a lot of pitches but as a hacker he swings at too many that are outside the strike zone. He’s relatively young but I doubt that time in AAA is going to much improve his plate approach.

        Reply
  10. Louisville may not be the place for Romano, Disco pitched there last nite, 5 innings-6 runs – 3 him runs.

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  11. Stipulate: Jose Peraza is 24, which means there’s considerable uncertainty regarding his future production. Not giving up on him, yet.

    That said, he’s played in 273 major league games. Every issue he had when the Reds traded for him remain struggles for Peraza today.

    His walk rate remains terrible – worst in his career. Peraza’s plate discipline, instead of improving, has been worse. He’s swinging at *more* pitches out the strike zone, by far, than previous years.

    Peraza has no power. Out of 179 players with at least 100 PA, Peraza is #177 in average exit velocity. (BTW, Billy Hamilton is #179.) If you prefer isolated power (ISO) as a measure, he’s #163 out of #166.

    Overall, Peraza’s wRC+ is #156 out of 166 qualified players (tied with Hamilton).

    Peraza’s defense is average at best. Most metrics are negative, but Baseball-Reference does have him at 0.1 dWAR.

    His overall WAR in 2018 at both FanGraphs and B-R is negative, as is his Win Probability Added.

    To this point, Peraza is looking like a total bust as a top prospect. If you’re trying to bend over backward to defend the front office, you can say that Todd Frazier didn’t have as much value in the market as we thought. BUT if reporting is correct, Peraza was also the headliner in expected return for the pre-scandal Chapman trade with the Dodgers.

    In contrast, Gleyber Torres, who the Yankees got from the Cubs when they traded a couple months of Chapman, has produced 1.8 WAR in 28 games with the Yankees. Peraza’s career WAR is 0.2 for FanGraphs and -0.8 at B-R. Peraza may be 24, but Torres is 21.

    Reply
    • At 24 ,what point do you move on? Let’s hope it’s not Billy Hamilton 2.0. That hurt s the team right now offensively. They have 2 guys in the lineup that are the same player. No matter what happens they always come up at critical times. Maybe they get away with having one guy in the lineup but not two. They are not sending Billy down to AAA. Only being 24 I think there is still time for Peraza to figure it out. But I think AAA is the best place for him. I wouldn’t even call it a demotion. I think he needs to work on things down there and get comfortable. Play Blandino at short for now.

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    • Peraza seems like a nice utility player, but then I see Blandino and he seems better than Peraza in that role. Jocketty clearly wanted Peraza . He is still sitting next to the owner. At what point are the Reds building for 2019 versus giving every opportunity to the players Jocketty acquired to elevate the Jocketty legacy?

      Castellini needs to get rid of his advisors. He has a deep baseball operations wing.

      I would DFA Walt and make Chad Dotson senior advisor to Bob C.
      I would remove Piniella and Farrell and Morgan as well. Appoint Steve M as special advisor to Dick Williams and just to make sure every one is on their toes, Ole Cossack gets a seat to chirp in the ear of Nick Krall. Now that would push this rebuild forward.

      Reply
    • True Steve, although the difference between Winker, Peraza, and Hamilton power wise is basically negligible, isn’t it? Except Winker occupies a corner OF spot and plays terrible defense to boot, whereas Peraza and Hamilton play solid and above average defense, respectively. Winker fails both the stat tests and the eyeball test on that end.

      I hope Winker gets a ton of rope but let’s not pretend that he isn’t a big problem. I mean, you bring up Torreyes’ WAR, but Winker, who is also 24, has -1.1 bWAR and -.3 fWAR.

      Reply
  12. Untill we move on from Peraza and Billy as every day major leaguers we will continue to be just what we are offensively.The stats don’t lie.Move Peraza down to the minors and play the Bob game in reverse.Tell him unless he gets his walk rate up he doesn’t sniff the majors.Let him set and room and hang out with Bob.For Billy trade him or release him and move on.

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About Chad Dotson

Blame Chad for creating this mess. Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds" is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad's musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine. You can email Chad at chaddotson@redlegnation.com.

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2018 Reds, Titanic Struggle Recap

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