In the classic film Good Will Hunting, the title character and his friends get into a fight on a basketball court with another group of young men. Will slugs his adversary in the face, vengeance for the way this individual treated Will when they were both in elementary school.

The police come, and Will ill-advisedly strikes a cop.

Turns out, this wasn’t the first time Will has been in trouble with the law, but he has always found a way out of trouble in the past. Not so this time. The judge orders prison time.

But shortly after, an esteemed professor works out a deal with the judge to allow Will to go free. Why? Because even though Will has demons that have contributed to many bad choices, he also has virtues and strengths, at least one of which is very important to this professor: Will can do math that literally no one else can.

Thus, Will must work with this professor and see a psychiatrist to stave off a prison sentence. His unmatched ability to do math trumps his assault of a police officer and checkered history. His strengths outweigh his weaknesses, at least in this instance.

In baseball, we typically aren’t comparing a player’s personal shortcomings against the positives they bring to the team. But most players do have playing vices and virtues.

For example, Joey Votto might be the best hitter on the planet. Outside of one awful season, he has been above-average defensively. But have you seen him run the bases? Not so speedy. However, Votto is so good at hitting and defense that we don’t mind his plodding from base to base.

A player’s strengths must outweigh their weaknesses for them to be useful. The better he is at one aspect, the easier it is to overlook his flaws.

Scooter Gennett is one of those players with clear strengths and weaknesses. He has a slightly above average wRC+ (105) for his career, posting an impressive 124 wRC+ in 2017. Last season seemed like an outlier compared to past years, but in 2018, Gennett has looked like the same guy offensively, batting .318/.356/.503 with six homeruns.

The underlying numbers are quite promising as well. First, Gennett is laying off pitches outside the zone better than he ever has. For his career, Gennett has swung at 36.6% of pitches outside the zone. This season, that number has dipped to 28.8%, which would be the first mark under 30% of his career if he can sustain it.

The change in approach, which began in 2017, has thus far led to fewer swings and misses and strikeouts. Gennett has cut down on strikeouts by roughly 5% from last year, and his BB% remains above his career average. His plate discipline is arguably the best it has ever been.

And a better approach doesn’t just lead to better walk and strikeout numbers, it’s often the catalyst to better contact. Gennett is hitting the ball with much more authority than years past. During his breakout 2017, he had a 34.4% Hard%, which measures how often players hit the ball hard. That’s right around league average but a big step up for Gennett from earlier years. This season, that number has skyrocketed to 42.3%, the fourth highest among second basemen in all of baseball.

We can expect his batting average to come down because he has an elevated BABIP of .362, but Gennett has always hit for a high BABIP in the past (.329 career mark), so it won’t come down as much as you might think. And he has the third highest line drive percentage in the National League among his second-base brethren, something we would expect from someone with a high batting average. It shouldn’t shock anyone to see him match his 2017 BABIP of .339.

The numbers suggest that he will continue to be a good offensive player.

But, is he good enough to offset the defense he plays? Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is one of the best all-encompassing defensive stats we have. It attempts to place a “run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof)”.

Among qualified second basemen, Gennett has the worst UZR in baseball. According to Fangraphs, he’s on pace to rate somewhere between “poor” and “awful.” Gennett is playing about as bad on defense as a middle infielder will play.

Last year, his poor defense diminished his overall value significantly. He was the second best hitter among NL second basemen with at least 450 plate appearances; he was 19th out of 20 in UZR. While hitting 24% better than the average player, he accumulated only 2.3 fWAR, roughly that of an average player.

What does this mean for Gennett’s future in the big leagues and with the Reds? First, Gennett’s offense is probably good enough for him to be a starting second basemen, even with the terrible defense. There’s a good chance he’s a 1.5-2.5 WAR player over the next few seasons, and that’s a starter for most teams.

But, unless vertigo or some other injury knocks him off course, Nick Senzel will beat down the door to the major leagues. The 22-year-old needs a place to play, and second base seems like the most likely landing spot.

Senzel is the antithesis of Gennett’s unbalanced game. He is a plus runner who defends well; he has above-average raw power and an exceptional hit tool. Senzel does everything well, which makes his floor very high and margin for error quite large.

While he may not be an immediate offensive upgrade, Senzel would certainly provide more value on defense and the bases than Gennett. It’s easy to see how Senzel could exceed Gennett’s overall production as soon as he gets regular playing time.

That leaves the Reds in a difficult spot with Gennett. He’s useful, probably a low-end starter but at least a good part-time player. He’s signed through next season. Do they try shifting Suarez back to shortstop to make room for Senzel and Gennett? The Reds don’t appear to have any interest in that right now. Will Gennett accept a role as a part-time player?

Or maybe Gennett has hit his way into some value on the trade market. It’s tough to say how other teams may evaluate him, but there’s enough risk to Gennett that I doubt the Reds get a major haul for him.

Scooter Gennett has glaring strengths and weaknesses. In 2017 and so far this season, his good has outweighed his bad. However, while he adds value to the current team, he is also blocking the Reds best hitting prospect since Jay Bruce. Whether the value Gennett adds is enough for the Reds to find a spot for him in 2019 is yet to be seen.

Join the conversation! 70 Comments

  1. When evaluating Scooter’s weaknesses, you also have to figure in that he historically hits poorly against lefties (much better so far this year, but likely to come back to normal). He’s also going to get more expensive. I love what he’s added to the team, but he would make a great DH and backup infielder for an AL team.

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  2. For the 2017 and 2018 seasons combined, Gennett has a wRC+ of 126, tied with Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez, pretty good company. I agree that his defense is not acceptable at second base. I don’t think the front office should be eager to unload him unless the return is fantastic. He can contribute to this team as a sometimes starter at second and perhaps even in the outfield.

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    • I agree with Tom I wish they could find a way to keep his bat in the lineup and get Senzel up here. I would hate to see us trade him away only to find out that Vertigo is going to constantly be an issue or that we end up getting a player who never pans out. I’m fine with a trade but would prefer to see Suares at SS, Senzel at 3rd and Scooter and 2nd. The infield defense probably wouldn’t be great but we sure would rake.

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      • I was watching the Milwaukee telecast of a Brewers-Reds game earlier this season, and the announcers made the comment that Gennett was let go by Milwaukee because he only played second base, and they were looking for a utility player with versatility.

        I see Gennett’s ceiling as a Ben Zobrist-type player who can fill a lot of positions in a pinch, and swing a productive bat. However, I have no idea whether or not Gennett is making any effort to practice at other positions. He has to know that Senzel is working at second base in Louisville, and that’s not an accident. My sense is that he enjoys playing for his hometown team and would probably like to stay. But someone close to him needs to tell him that the way he currently plays second base defensively is not adequate at the major league level, and second base is a position where defense trumps offense.

        I don’t want to see Gennett unloaded for Class A or AA prospects. Gang, this is year four of this rebuild, and this is the time when you HAVE to start playing to win, to see what players you have who can help you do that.

        I am very eager to see what happens with Homer Bailey once DeSclafani is ready. Clearly, Homer is not going to be a member of the next good Reds team. Dick Williams is paying Mesoraco’s salary while he plays for the Mets. What that tells me is that just because someone on the roster is a sunk cost doesn’t mean he has to play regularly and help sink the team.

        Homer is going to make $45 million from the Reds in the next two-plus years whether he pitches every five days or sits at home in Texas. Nothing can change that. I hope that roster decisions continue to be made based on who gives the team the best chance to win this year, knowing that the post-season is a pipe dream. Unless a top-level prospect comes in return, Gennett has an important role on this team, as he showed during last week’s six-game winning streak.

        End of rant. 🙂

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        • I agree with your post for the most part. Learned to never count in Disco. With Scooter, I really feel center field may be his and the teams best option since left and right are taken. Less arm strain than playing 2b. He would be an offensive upgrade to Billy and could play 2B when Senzel needs a rest or has a vertigo bout. Start shopping Duvall and maybe Homer as a package for something, anything. Homer may be could be a trade deadline trade if someone is desperate for a pitcher for a year and half at that salary.

          Just a thought.

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          • Need Disco to be healthy enough to pitch well before the trade deadline so he can be dealt. He will never stay healthy. Need to trade Billy if we can get much in return because he will never hit. Need Duvall to start hitting so we can trade him as well. I don’t think Peraza is the answer at SS but maybe it is to soon to make that call? The rebuild has taken too dam long so lets finish it this year!

          • Craig Biggio is a far better athlete than Scooter Gennett but played an abysmal CF. Senzel has a better chance than Scooter of being even a fair Center-fielder. I don’t think anyone is picking up Homer the way he’s been pitching, at even half his salary. Duvall doesn’t add much to any package. I get what you’re trying to do but I just don’t see how it really could be done.

  3. Unless vertigo sidetracks Senzel, it’s hard to imagine he’s not part of the Reds long term success, and probably at 2nd base. That’s bad for Scooter but I do think there is trade value there. He mashes right handed pitching, and if he is getting better against lefties and improving his plate discipline then he will be attractive to certain teams. Good trades aren’t just about the absolute value of a player, but about the relative value in the context of each team’s needs. Find a team where 2nd base is a black hole of offense, or where the primary 2nd baseman has just been injured (looking at you Seattle) and that is opportunity. Perhaps the timing isn’t perfect since Senzel is still out, but Blandino can fill in fine for a little while if the Mariners have value to offer the Reds now. But either way I expect to see Gennett traded away this summer while his value is highest. Here’s hoping the Reds get back more than they have in certain recent, disappointing trades.

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  4. Scooter reminds me of Daniel Murphy, all hit, no field. Look where Murphy is playing.

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  5. Remember all the hand-wringing over Zack Cozart?

    How the Reds would regret not signing him to a FA deal, how they would not be able to replace him?

    Cozart’s numbers are better than Peraza’s but hardly worth matching the dollars the Angels gave a 32-year old.
    99 wRC+ (league average), .299 OBP.
    LA has already tried to move him throughout the lineup, trying to re-kindle those hot first few weeks Cozart had.

    LA can afford to miss financially on Cozart, the Reds cannot (or won’t, depending on point of view) with keeping Gennett around, financially or development-wise.

    For those who value Gennett so much, why are his home/road splits as a Red never mentioned? MLB teams surely know this:

    Home:
    2017 – 140 wRC+
    2018 – 157 wRC+

    Away:
    2017 – 111 wRC+
    2018 – 116 wRC+

    When you wonder why the re-build never feels finished….Duvall takes away from Winker in LF, a AAAA-hitter play every day in CF and it’s possible a guy greatly boosted by the GABP bandbox could be blocking the development of the Reds top prospect.

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    • Slotar ……. WRC+ of 111 and 116 is still pretty good. I’m not sure what you are trying to prove here yes GABP is a good hitters park good thing they play half their games here…… What would you suggest giving Scooter away like we did Jay Bruce…. Unless you can get a solid prospect with true upside who gives a flying F about saving the 4 or 5 million a year the Reds haven’t spent any of the money they have saved thus far and honestly I don’t see the 4 or 5 mil savings really doing anything to their off season plans they won’t go after Machado or Harper they will get out bid by the Yankees on Patrick Corbin…. AJ Pollack maybe I guess but doubt that….. I guess I just don’t see the point in trading someone for the sake of trading them.

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      • Trout,

        I did not think I would have to spell it out, but…3 of the other 4 NL Central parks are in the top half of Runs as a Park Factor in 2018.

        http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

        Now, we are up to more than 100 games potentially where Scooter gets number inflation. Add in…sub-par defense, can’t hit LHP, not of prospect age.

        Who is coming in for Gennett? Dodgers are smart, they know his bat doesn’t play in a pitchers’ park. Same with Seattle.

        As ScottyA lists below, the opportunity cost alone on Senzel playing time is costly, plus the salary next year.

        I used to think Duvall was the most over-rated Reds players on RLN, but Gennett may have the crown now.

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        • Slotar – so let me ask you again please let me know your solution. Non tender him after this season? Because you can’t think we will get a prospect for him right?

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          • The solution to me would be, see what is being offered at the trade deadline. There may be someone in need who will give up a prospect. If there is no market for him, obviously you hold onto him and try again during the off season and again during the 2019 season. Unless the Reds have an interest in extending him, which doesn’t seem likely, he will leave as a free agent with nothing in return. Of course if the Reds plan to spend the money to bring in multiple high dollar free agents in an attempt to win in 2019 then Scooter has a higher value to the team. However based on what we know the payroll is not going to allow that to happen.

    • You know wrc+ is ballpark adjusted… right?

      Scooter isn’t the first hitter to show a home/road split, many do.

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    • wRC+ accounts for park effects. Scooter’s Home wRC+ demonstrates that he has been 40-50% better than hitters even after accounting for the GABP-boost. This can also be seen if you look at DJ LeMahieu’s splits from last year: he had better pure numbers at home but a worse wRC+ because the Coors effect boosts every hitters offensive numbers.

      Scooter’s game may play up in a small ballpark, but almost all hitters do too. I’d be surprised if his 17-18 home/away wRC+ splits amount to much more than a preference for playing at home (he’s always hit better at home even in Milwaukee) and noise/randomness in just 1 full season’s worth of data.

      I am far from a Scooter proponent and favor trading him if they can find teams that believe in his offensive awakening. Teams get more desperate closer to the trade deadline, so if Scooter can keep this up for another 2 months, he could have good value (or at least as much value as a weak fielding 2nd baseman can have).

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    • As already mentioned, 111 and 116 wRC+ values are still pretty good. This is especially true for a guy who can play 2B at all. Then there is the fact that Senzel hasn’t played in 2 weeks. In my opinion, Gennett isn’t blocking anyone. Senzel is fine at AAA right now. It’s not stunting his development in any way. I don’t understand why so many seem in such a hurry to get him up here.

      I also agree that Winker needs to be playing every day but I’m not sold on his game. I am impressed with his approach and his plate discipline. His walk-rate and ability to hit the ball will mean he has some value as a high-OBP player. That said, there isn’t anything else he’s particularly good at. He’s an average base-runner, he has displayed limited power at AAA and MLB, and he’s not a particularly good OF. I see a very average player with potential. The Reds need to keep playing him but I’m not sure that I would agree that Duvall and Duvall alone should be the guy who gets put on the bench. I There are some peripherals that suggest Duvall has been very, very unlucky. If I were deciding upon playing time, Winker would get full playing time in LF or RF with occasional days of rest (a couple days a month). Schebler, Hamilton, and Duvall would be mixed and matched based on Reds’ starting pitcher, opponent’s ballpark, and general health and availability for the other 2 OF slots on a daily basis.

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  6. Well said and with the data to back it up sooooooo they will keep him right.

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  7. We’ll written article. We need to also account for his salary especially in 19′ and the opportunity cost of it; If senzel comes on and takes over second. Gennett’s appx 7 million salary + additional $ could be used to sign a good starting pitcher.

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    • Gennett, like Votto, is once again giving you more value than you’re paying him.

      His hit tools have staying power.

      The Reds can easily afford him.

      All good teams have legit players on their bench. He could get 400 ABs between 2B/3B/LF.

      Scooter would probably give the Reds a hometown discount for an extension.

      Makes a lot of sense to keep him around!

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      • I agree that Gennett’s contract is a value at approximately 6 million for 1.5 to 2.5 war this season and 7+million next. Sure that’s “affordable”, but it’s also a cost that could be spent where the team needs to improve = CF, Starting pitching and SS.

        It would be different if we weren’t loaded at 3b, 2b and having a lf that doesn’t need to give up any at bats.

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  8. A few weeks ago the thought was that we should have traded Gennett at the trade deadline last year or over the winter when his value was as high as it was going to be. Now, we are talking about an increase in offensive performance over his breakout year all while he is blocking a prime hitting prospect from the Reds. I will take that all day considering the trades that have not panned out and are biting us in the behind.

    With that said, I believe his trade value will increase and an AL team will find him incredibly appealing over the coming weeks. He can play just enough defensively to warrant a start against an NL team occasionally, but the pop in his bat to go along with increased plate discipline will provide most AL teams great value in their lineup.

    I don’t think moving Suarez to short is a great idea. Dude is playing great at third and is raking offensively. Peraza still has a lot to prove but has shown a significant jump over what we were expecting to begin the season and is playing more than adequate defense at short and has shown the ability to make highlight plays. Senzel at 2nd makes the most sense considering who we have at short and third.

    Billy as the starting CF still makes the most sense until we have something better, not just a popular alternative (Sheb or Winker don’t make sense in CF long term). Moving Winker into LF full-time is the move that needs to be made now and I think we have the lineup we expect to see when we are trying to contend next year.

    Now if we could just fix that rotation…

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  9. Another part of this equation is the LONG line of second base prospects waiting for an opening. Senzel is obvious, but there’s also Blandino, Dixon, Herrera, and Long.

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    • Yep. Good point. Not convinced Dixon is anything more than a power bench bat, but the other four have starting potential to varying degrees.

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      • Yep. Dixon is Scooter all over again–bad glove, good bat. In fact, their offensive slash lines are almost identical right now.

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        • And it’s a shame we didn’t have Dixon up here instead of Gosselington.

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          • I’m with you, which probably means you’re wrong, but I thought Dixon made sense as well.

  10. Anyone who watched Senzel in spring training knows he can make every play you need a SS to make–charging balls, converting tricky hops into outs, making the long throw from the 5 1/2 hole.

    Peraza, even after his hot streak, still sports a paltry .655 OPS. His no-walk, serve it into the OF approach will never allow him to OPS over .700.

    Keep Scooter at 2B, platoon him with Blandino until Shed is ready, and make Senzel your SS.

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    • You have said that before. But the Reds, meaning guys like Barry Larkin and Freddie Benavides, both of whom know more about infield play than I ever will and actually worked with Senzel this spring, apparently do not agree with you.

      I therefore believe the Senzel-as-shortstop ship has sailed. I wouldn’t mind Senzel at left or even center, but the Reds haven’t really tried it.

      As to Gennett, the Reds are already overloaded with LH hitters, including two switch hitters who hit righties better. Votto, Winker, Schebler, Gennett, Hamilton and Barnhart. Scooter, given what is emerging in the minor leagues, may be the first to go. Robinson Cano was just suspended for 80 games, so maybe that is now an option, although I agree with others that Gennett won’t likely bring much in return. Maybe an A-ball arm.

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      • Agree with everything you said here… If an “A” ball arm is all that can come back, I don’t think the Reds should make that move. Unless that arm is a guy with a very high ceiling.

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    • I saw him some in spring training and he looked good at SS but that said, I didn’t see nearly enough of him to make such a declaration. The Reds obviously don’t think he’s an every day SS and said as much. While the team has made a myriad of mistakes during this rebuild (my opinion only), I think they probably have a better understanding of where guys stand as far as defensive ability at a given position. I base this on the fact that they see so much more of the players than we do, especially in spring training.

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  11. Unless the FO has really changed they will do like they have other times wait until his value has dropped & try to trade him.

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  12. For those who are looking for possible trade destinations for Gennett, Seattle’s Robinson Cano was suspended 80 games today for positive PED test.

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    • Whoa. Didn’t Cano just go on the DL with a broken hand? Won’t he have to come off of the DL before he starts to serve that suspension? That could be 10 + days and then 80 games, or worse, 60 days and then 80 games. Could make the M’s more of a buyer. Scooter could probably play some 1B/DH next year for them as Cruz and Smoak are free agents after the year.

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      • Reports are that Cano can serve his suspension while on the DL.

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        • That is what the report says I just saw. He failed the test over the winter and had been negotiating with MLB. Now that he is hurt he dropped his appeal.
          He’ll be eligible to come off of suspension around mid-August. But he won’t be eligible for the post-season if Seattle were to make it. That might be important. They will need a back up plan.

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          • Ahhh. He went to the Braun school. Except he hasn’t blamed the courier for bias yet.

        • Edinson Volquez served his suspension while on the DL. I don’t have any problem with that. The punishment, as much as possible, should hit the player and not the team. Suspended players on the DL lose their salary and that’s what they care about the most and it’s also neatly targeted at the player not the team. Of course, the player is also precluded from postseason games, which does impact the team.

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      • Smoak hasn’t been with Seattle since end of 2014 season. He Is in Toronto. Oops

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    • That would be 80 games from when he is off the DL? He’s 6-8 weeks away with fracture. . So effectively season ending.
      He was sure fire HOF.

      Astros and Mariners now possible partners

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    • I was thinking the same thing! But, good point made above about possible park factor benefits of playing in the NL Central vs the bigger Western parks. But, we won’t know if they don’t ask…

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  13. Scooter is a nice lefty bat with pop. In this era of the superteam, he will have value at the trade deadline assuming he can hit another 10 home runs in the the next 60 days and OPS >800. The Astros are already evaluating trade options to add offense. It wouldnt make sense to pay him 10 million next year and he wouldn’t get much back in a trade a year from now.

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  14. Maybe it’s hopeless, and maybe hard work is out of style, but how about Scooter putting in some long hours of practice, to get better defensively? It wouldn’t take a lot of reps to get him to stop throwing underhand/sidearm, for example.

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    • Apparently his shoulder is bugging him most on throws. That’s why his arm-angle is even lower than normal. He tends to drop down anyway but he’s doing it way more since the shoulder has been barking at him. It also probably is limiting his reps at 2B on the rare occasion he takes grounders there during down time.

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  15. Jason Kipnis is hitting .170 and Scooter could just cross dugouts like Mesoraco did. The thing is…thats assuming Senzel can really hit and that he’ll be healthy. That’s assuming Senzel or Suarez can’t play SS….or assuming Peraza will ever be a player. Billy literally couldn’t steal a base the other night because Jose swung at every pitch and fouled it off until he hit one. Maybe Dilson Herrera figures in at some point? Its a big disadvantage to play in a bandbox and still have 2-3 guys in the lineup that can’t reach the seats more then 1-2 month.

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  16. I hope there is an RLN article up soon about Joey Votto’s conversation with Jeff Passan. Holy moly.
    The losing, the bad start of 2018, Bryan Price’s firing, have worn thin on him.
    Nick Krall hasn’t even gotten his seat warm in the GM’s office and kaboom. Nothing was said to that effect, but something is afoot.
    I would sense that privately that Joey Votto maybe will consider waiving his no-trade clause if a few certain teams would be involved and has relayed that info to the front office. He isn’t going to give the Reds front office a blanket waiver and they could trade him to any team. But I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that he as given them a very short list with his preferences. If it will help the team with acquiring some top young talent and he picks where he goes, now he might be in. The wanting to be a Red for life might be a fading fancy with him now.

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    • I think you might be right.

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    • Its on Yahoo sports as well. I can’t even see a rich team forking over 25/mil a year til he 39-40 years old? The Reds would probably have to eat some of the salary and wouldn’t get as much back in return. If he put up a month like his 2nd half last year then maybe someone rich bites the bullet but I can’t see it?

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      • I agree with Indy on this… I don’t see even the rich teams giving us much for Votto I think I would rather just watch the best hitter in Reds history stay unless someone blows the FO’s mind with an offer. Votto is one of the best reasons to watch the games.

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      • Big Papi? Big Papi Votto. I could see Votto making a living in Boston and setting 2B’s records hitting the other way off of the Green Monster at age 39. He would be just one of the guys in Boston’s lineup, not the main feature like in Cincinnati.
        Boston hasn’t been the same without Big Papi. Big Papi Votto

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        • They haven’t been the same, no, but they’re not so bad, either.

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        • I love Votto but it’s Votto, and “old” Votto hitting liners off the Green Monster is going to be looking at mostly singles 🙂

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    • I was cringing watching JV tag against LA and run home. He looked like a hamstring waiting to happen. His hit skill translates till 39-40 as a DH. Nothing else does. He’s already a poor baserunner and poor fielder. I do think a big market AL team would take his salary. Maybe the NL will adopt the DL in 2021 . One thing is for certain.He can’t play 160 games. He needs 145.

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      • Votto rates as a good defender by UZR throughout his career. He’s on pace right now for the second best UZR of his career, so he’s actually a good defender right now and has been most years except 2016.

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    • Maybe, or maybe not. Made my opinion on Twitter about what he said but I’ll make it again here. I applaud Votto for saying what he did. In fact, I’m a little disappointed he stepped back from it. We have been talking here about maybe getting 2-3 guys in free-agency to help get back to competitiveness but who wants to come play for this mess of an organization right now? The Reds would probably have to overpay to get someone in, especially any pitcher. This team’s ownership and front-office needs to show a commitment to winning again or we are looking at another lost decade.

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  17. Scooter’s value on an AL team is obviously higher than an NL team. Reds should be on the phone with any AL team in need of left-handed hitting.

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    • To reply to @J and @Trout,

      Yeah, the Cano thing is a perfect chance to dump Gennett, if Dick Williams isn’t trying to “win” the trade. Move him for a lottery ticket prospect, or the cash considerations (is it $50K? 25K?)

      Blandino and later, Senzel, need the playing time at 2B and they fit into that “critical mass” of developed, young controllable talent for 2020-2023 that small markets need to have a contention window.

      Gennett could be the backup in 2019 to Senzel, but at $7/8/9 million, that does not seem like a Reds type of investment in a part-time player.

      At some point, Gennett needs to be walked away from, if he can’t be traded. As I pointed out above, his game has several flaws and he benefits bigly from GABP. Teams aren’t paying much for that.

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  18. Gennett is trade bait. Harvey is trade bait. They might also prevent the Reds from using Iglesias as tradebait.

    Gennett has saved his career here in cincy but he’s not the future.

    Senzel is the future. Suarez is the present and future. Votto is the present and hopefully holds it together to be a huge part of the future. Barnhart – present and future. Pereza? Maybe if he keeps it up. Same for Winker. I don’t think Duvall, Schebler, or Gennett are in the future.

    If the lineup of the future looks like this, it’s pretty good:

    – Winker – .OBP

    – Senzel – .OPS/Speed/Defense

    – Votto – World Class .OPS/Defense

    – Suarez – .OPS/Defense

    – Right Field high OPS bat and strong defense (that’s one missing piece)

    – Peraza – Batting .AVG/Speed

    – Barnhart – Defense

    – Pitcher

    – Hamilton – World Class Speed/Defense

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  19. Common sense which I have found is not that common is that the value for SG is as a DH!!!! I am old fashioned and my lack experience ( I have only coached 9 to 18 year olds) I really believe in the strong defense up the middle!! I think another solid year at the plate with some pop would price him out of a bench role even if he was willing !!!!!! I have lost any faith Stephenson is going to pull his head out but there is enough arm threaten the package would be interesting!!!

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  20. Good stuff, Nick. No easy answers when it comes to Scooter, because he does have some value.

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  21. Scooter, Duvall and Schebler had no market last season or the off season. There simply wasn’t any market for average corner OF and middle IF and all three players had warts. Criticism directed at the Reds for not trading them is completely misdirected unless you are proposing that they should have been given away for no real return.

    This season is suddenly developing into an entirely different environment, at least for Scooter. PLayers like Robinson Cano are not easily replaced. If Seatle intends to compete this season (and they currently stand 1.5 games behind LAA & HOU), they can not afford to wait to replace Cano. By the time Cano does return, there will only be 41 games remaining in the regular season and Cano will also be out for any playoff run. Cano has an .825 OPS as a LH hitter in the middle of the Mariners lineup playing 2B. Scooter has an .860 OPS as a LH hitter in the middle of the lineup playinfg 2B. Scooter has defensive flaws, but those flaws were exacerbated early this season due to a gimpy shoulder from spring training. Once Cano returns, Scooter would become a great LH bat off the bench and a superb DH for the remaining 40 games of the regular season and next season could step in nicely as the DH. This just seems like too much of a natural match to pass up. If the Meriners don’t do something significant, they will be buried in the standings by the time Cano returns.

    Another possible option between the Reds and Mariners is Dilson Herrera. Herrera is now playing regularly at 2B in AAA and has an .803 OPS at AAA.

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    • Along that same train of thought, if the LAD are not burning up the phone lines trying to work out a deal for Iggy, they’re fools. The fans and media are going to really turn on them if that bullpen drags the team into a 2nd division finish this season. It’s a shame that the LAD organization can not filed a winning team without a $300MM budget for MLB salaries.

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  22. Tonight’s lineup in SF…

    1. Jose Peraza (R) SS
    2. Jesse Winker (L) LF
    3. Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
    4. Scooter Gennett (L) 2B
    5. Adam Duvall (R) 1B
    6. Scott Schebler (L) RF
    7. Tony Cruz (R) C
    8. Tyler Mahle (R) P
    9. Billy Hamilton (S) CF

    This lineup just doesn’t look nearly as formidible without Votto in it.

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    • I really wish the Reds would immediately place Votto on the 10-day DL to make sure he gets the rest and recovery needed to prevent that back from becoming a lingering issue this season. 10 days with Winker, Schebler, Hamilton and Duvall playing every day would be a nice option right now. The player the Reds should promote to fill the open spot on the 25-man roster, if Votto was DL’d, would also have to be added to the 40-man roster. Unfortunately the Reds needed to add Harvey and they used the last remaining slot available on the 40-man roster except for the slot being held to activate Disco from the 60-day DL when he completes his rehab.

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      • Ervin is 26 and taking a roster spot. How long they going to wait on this guy? Shackelford is 29 and taking up a spot. Can’t wait forever for these guys.

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    • Ouch. They just said on MLB network that basically Houston was the only team tanking when they did it. Now there is about 10 teams doing it and that is to many . Some teams arent going to make it. At the time they were talking about Votto and his rant. So they were basically saying the Reds weren’t going to make it. I think this team is 3 years away. At least until trammel and others are here.

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  23. Scooter must be traded, not only for his age (29), soon-to-be expensive and awful defense in the middle, a no-no for a team with struggling pitching and playing at GABP. It won’t be easy and Mariners not only have a thin farm but already said that Dee Gordon will go back to 2b (at least provisionally).

    I would try Senzel in RF. His arm, speed and overall defense plus his bat is fine for a corner OF. I am not sold on any of the 4-man rotation. Winker has no enough power or defense, Duvall and Schebler are more 4th OF. High hopes that Siri in CF (who’s came back very hot) and Trammel in LF will be the OF in 2020. Great prospect of an OF. And that’s not counting Aquino or Fairchild.

    And 2b has two very good prospects to look at: Shed ;Long and Dilson Herrera. And Blandino (probably more of a utility guy and a good one at that).

    Reply

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