After Matt Harvey’s scintillating four inning performance Friday night, the Reds look to continue their 2018 dominance of the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight at 9:10 ET.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA xFIP K% BB%
Homer Bailey 43.1 5.61 5.29 13.2% 6.9%
Ross Stripling 23.1 1.93 4.22 24.0% 9.0%

Homer Bailey’s last start against the Mets was his worst of the season so far, as he gave up six runs on eight hits in just four innings. That included three home runs. Bailey has now given up 11 home runs on the season, most among all National League pitchers.

Bailey’s K% is also down from previous years. He’s never been a high strikeout pitcher anyway, but this season it is only 13.2%. He is usually closer to 20%. If there’s a positive to Bailey’s stats, it’s that he’s not walking batters at a higher rate than normal. His 6.9 BB% is close to his career average.

Here are Bailey’s stats against Dodgers hitters:

dodgers vs homer bailey

Though Stripling has only pitched 23.1 innings in 2018 (he has been in the Dodgers bullpen and tonight is just his third game starting), he has been one of the best Dodger pitchers. Stripling has yet to go more than four innings in a start this season, and had his best performance of the year in his last start against the Padres when he pitched four innings, gave up four hits and no runs, and struck out five. Four of the five runs he has allowed this season came in his first start of the season against the Diamondbacks on April 30.

Stripling has a high FB% at 42.4%, but has only given up two home runs, making his HR/FB% only 7.1%. This means he’s either gotten extremely lucky in that the fly balls he’s given up have not been home runs, he pitches in a pitcher friendly stadium (he does), or a combination of both.

The Reds haven’t faced Stripling very often. Here are his numbers against the Reds:

reds vs ross stripling

Lineups

REDS DODGERS
1. Jesse Winker (RF)
2. Jose Peraza (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Scooter Gennett (2B)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (CF)
7. Tucker Barnhart (C)
8. Adam Duvall (LF)
9. Homer Bailey (P)
1. Chase Utley (2B)
2. Joc Pederson (LF)
3. Matt Kemp (RF)
4. Cody Bellinger (1B)
5. Chris Taylor (SS)
6. Max Muncy (3B)
7. Enrique Hernandez (CF)
8. Austin Barnes (C)
9. Ross Stripling (P)

-Jesse Winker has been in the lineup seven of the last eight days. I hope this means he is a part of the regular lineup now and exempt from the outfield rotation.

-Scooter Gennett continued swinging his hot bat last night, going 4-for-5 with two runs scored and three RBI. And he’s facing another right-handed pitcher tonight in Stripling.

News and Notes 

-Less media could very well be a factor if Matt Harvey does end up resurrecting his career in the next two months. Less media can mean less questions and sometimes less pressure, depending on the player.

-The Reds’ High-A team in Daytona is one of the best teams in the minor leagues right now.

-Joey Votto is the greatest.

-And if you’re interested in news about former Reds, Jay Bruce is on the paternity list for the Mets this week, as his wife just gave birth to their second child.

Final Thoughts

Maybe the Reds aren’t as bad as everyone has said they are?

55 Responses

  1. Jack

    These late night games are killing me. Need Homer to get back on track. Win the series tonight.

    • docproctor

      At least it’s 9:10 instead of 10:10. One less hour of sleep lost tonight.

  2. Mike Adams

    Ashley, a comment to your Final Thoughts: facts speak for themselves. The record is what it is and the Reds have been as bad as the record shows.
    BUT, I assume your question was asked with a long term view of a the final season record after all games.
    Based on recent play, I think the final season record will be better and no, the Reds aren’t as bad as everyone (me too) has said they are.

  3. TurboBuckeye

    Homer’s fastball just looks flat

  4. Jack

    Bailey got out of that one but he is flirting with disaster again.

  5. VaRedsFan

    Votto got away with another bad play in the field, going to his right while Scooter was waiting for the routine grounder…Votto had to dive,

  6. VaRedsFan

    Per the Dodgers broadcast…In Homer’s last 32 starts. Worst ERA in baseball

  7. james garrett

    Homer is just awful right now.Don’t know how else to describe it.Pitches have no life right now.

  8. VaRedsFan

    When will Reds pitchers stop pitching down and in to leftys? Up and in Homer to the guy with an uppercut swing

    • james garrett

      Was thinking the same thing.Pitch before was low and away for a strike then down and in to a lefty home run hitter and well there it goes.

  9. james garrett

    Homer battles but he just can’t get guys out.The Dodgers have 6 hits already and counting.

    • Jack

      Battling he is. 1 run through 3. Offense needs to get going.

      • james garrett

        Certainly would be nice to give him the lead right here.

  10. J

    I just realized Bailey’s contract includes a $25 million option for an additional year. That’s probably going to be a tough decision for this organization.

    • Jack

      They would have to be flat out clueless if they pick it up.

      • Colorado Red

        5 Mil buyout.
        No way they pick it up.
        If we had anyone who could pitch, then we could cut him.
        Still have to pay, but time to move on.

  11. Seat101

    Missle Man Gets his first hit of the evening and drives in a run.

  12. Wayne Nabors

    As mlb was going to break earlier jerry hairston was shown asking ump if he was going to warn him,said he didn’t care how many mvp’s he’s won.does anyone know what that was about,im sure he was referring to votto

  13. VaRedsFan

    Glad Stripling is gone…Reds have Trouble With The Curve

  14. VaRedsFan

    booom goes Schebler!!! 3 run job!

  15. Seat101

    I think I just woke up my four-year-old with that homerun

  16. Jack

    Why would you pitch Tucker away when the shift is on?

  17. Preach

    Brantley said the Dodgers have a ambidextrous pitcher up in the pen. Really wish I had video tonight. Radio only for me

  18. Jack

    Bailey should be mad at himself for pitching like crap.

      • Jack

        True but he shouldn’t be complaining he got pinch hit for. He was in trouble in every inning and after getting the lead Riggleman couldn’t trust him to go one more.

  19. earmbrister

    Had to tuck the kids in before Scheb finished his AB. This train just keeps on a rollin’!

  20. Preach

    Ok, it’s a hit, but not a homer. Scooter is slipping…..

  21. Preach

    Gotta like the 9pm start times for WC games, not quite midnight and we are in the 8th. Not bad

    • J

      Good thing they removed him before he got too many guys out.

  22. Preach

    One pitch DP! That’s pitch efficiency

  23. VaRedsFan

    Huge (Or is is Hughes) lineout DP

  24. J

    Glad it worked out, but for the life of me I’ll never understand managers. Hernandez hit for himself, he gets the first guy out with no problem, and then he has to come out of the game for a guy who’s been having trouble throwing strikes? I’ll just never understand what goes through a manager’s head.

  25. VaRedsFan

    super bear handed play by Peraza