This week’s respondents are Bill Lack, Nick Carrington, Jim Walker, Wes Jenkins, and Jeff Gangloff.
Our Weekly Reds Obsession: Will Jose Peraza or Scott Schebler be a member of the next good Reds team, and if so, in what role?
Bill Lack: I honestly have no idea. I believed that the Reds were closer to the next good team than they are, apparently, and I’m dumbfounded by how bad this team has been thus far this year. If they don’t take a step-forward this year, the whole theory/philosophy of this rebuild has to be questioned and then, who knows when the next good Reds team will be?
To answer the question, I’d say “no”. I don’t think either will be here in 2-3 years (and that’s making major assumptions). I think they’ll likely both be traded for portions of the “next” wave of young players to believe in. I think Schebler will be traded off because he has some value (not because there’s a ton of talent pushing him in the minor league outfield slots) and Peraza will be traded off as part of a larger deal (because he’s never gotten any better than he is now, at age 24, and there are possible replacements at SS/2B coming up behind him).
I hope I’m wrong and they begin to play much better baseball this season and we see progress, so they can be competitive for a playoff spot in ’19 or maybe ’20; but you have to really be wearing some “Rose”-colored glasses to think that right now.
Nick Carrington: Both Schebler and Peraza will likely be part of the next good Reds team, but I’m far more confident that Schebler will be a starter. He has reduced his strikeout rate so far this year and has shown hulk-like power in the past (.252 ISO in 2017). Schebler is also deceptively fast, maybe a tad quicker than Peraza who is known for his speed. If not for an injury last season, his solid numbers look better, and I think he improves on the margins for the next 2-3 years.
Peraza has some skill with the bat, and he has hit the ball harder so far this year. There’s hope there. But he has the most risky profile of any position player the Reds have. He has very little power or ability to take a walk. That puts a ton of pressure on him to hit for a high batting average. A little bad luck and he becomes unplayable offensively. He’s on the next Reds team, but he might be a utility guy at that point.
Jim Walker: My short answer is probably not for both. I’m guessing the next Reds team which meets my idea of good will be 2021 or 2022. If both players remain exclusively at the MLB level, they will each be out of team control at the end of 2022 unless signed to an extension beyond that date. Additionally, each could possibly become eligible for arbitration via Super 2 status as soon as the end of this season given that Peraza started 2018 with 1 year and 141 days of service time and Schebler with 1 year and 132 days. Thus, because of cost, neither is likely to be around for my next good Reds team unless as an everyday player. I doubt that in both cases, given talent in the pipeline.
Wes Jenkins: Jose Peraza has done enough to prove himself as the Reds starting shortstop, at least for the next two years. His swing has come around and he’s good enough in the field to not be a nuisance. If the next Reds manager understands that he should hit sixth or seventh and not second, then all will be well with Jose.
Scott Schebler meanwhile should be traded yesterday. I’m not sold on him sustaining this breakout for multiple years at a time, so the Reds should capitalize on his value while they can. By the time the Reds are good again, it’ll be Jesse Winker and Taylor Trammell afield – Schebler shouldn’t be counted on to be the third name.
Jeff Gangloff: I don’t think it’s out of the question that both Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler could be a member of the next winning Reds team. If I had to choose one, though, it would be Schebler. I’ve always had an affinity toward Schebs and I truly believe he could take over and hold down the left field spot for years to come. This is becoming an even bigger possibility with the continuation of Adam Duvall’s offensive woes. I love Schebler’s offensive approach and I truly believe that the more consistently he plays the better he will be. Between being injured and having to split time with other players, Schebler has never really had the chance to be “the guy”. I think it’s only a matter of time before he starts stealing playing time from Adam Duvall and hopefully that cements his role as an everyday starting outfielder.
Blame Chad for creating this mess.
Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.
You can email Chad at firstname.lastname@example.org.