The Short Version: After dropping a 7-6 decision to the Metropolitans, the Cincinnati Reds have now lost six of their last seven games, and they are 8-27 on the season. Eight and twenty-seven.

Final R H E
New York Mets (18-15) 7 13 0
Cincinnati Reds (8-27) 6 8 0
W: Gsellman (4-0) L: Bailey (0-5) S: Familia (10)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

 

 

 

 

 

Blame Chad for creating this mess.

Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

Join the conversation! 99 Comments

  1. Oh, for the love of God..another HR derby for the other team.

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    • Homer is living up to his name unfortunately. 11 HR given up so far. Milton’s 40 HR is the most ever given up by a Reds’ pitcher in a season. The record for RHP is 35. Aaron Harang shares that one with another pitcher.

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  2. Sal and Tyler seem to be our only dependable starters. Finnegan is terrible, Bailey has been garbage,and Castillo is still figuring things out – IF he isn’t hurt.

    Seems like the Reds pitchers spot the other team 3-6 runs very early in each contest. The fact that it is happening so often speaks to a lack of talent and also a lack of major league coaching.

    Things are probably going to get worse before they get better.

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    • Should the catcher share any blame?

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      • YES! Tucker won a GG last year, but has made a few errors this season. This lack of focus probably bleeds over to pitch selection. You wonder if maybe he’s not the receiver to help these young pitchers along….

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    • Pitchers that have the injuries that Bailey, Finnegan, and Desclafani have suffered usually don’t do well afterwards. Some fans expected these guys to return to near normal. It doesn’t look like any of the three injured starters for the Reds are going to be able to come back. I wish they would, but 58 years as a fan tells me they most likely won’t be able to do so. I hate it for Bailey especially— he was so good before his injury.

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      • Speaking only of Bailey, the issue seems more about location than stuff. Maybe that’s injury-related, but that seems counter-intuitive.

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        • Mostly location, but also his fastball, which has always been rather straight, is arrow-straight these days.

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  3. More of the The Count on this site, please.

    On this home stand:

    6-5 L
    7-6 L
    3-1 L
    4-1 W
    6-0 L
    8-5 L
    7-6 L

    Good teams find different ways to win games…bad teams find different ways to lose, and boy, are we seeing that. Giving up runs in each of the first 5 innings and losing by one is not bad luck, just bad.

    Homer is done. And there is still a season and a half to go with him. No one is taking on him or his contract.

    Tomorrow, Castillo vs. a guy with a 16.20 ERA (Vargas). It looks good, but then again, it looked good earlier today, Homer vs. a kid making his first start.

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    • “Good teams find different ways to win games…bad teams find different ways to lose, and boy, are we seeing that.”
      The Bungles have practically made it into an art form and it may be rubbing off.

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  4. So can we finally jump off the Homer Bailey train now… I think it is fully derailed, decommissioned, and thrown a piston.

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    • ahhhh, yep!

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    • His velocity was good. His breaking stuff and location were bad. Those seem like correctable issues to me.

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      • Velocity is the last thing to go with an injured arm. Location is the first problem when pitchers have arm injuries. I doubt it is correctable.

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        • Brantley seemed to think it was notable and important that Bailey was still pushing into the mid 90’s. His splitter wasn’t diving and his breaking ball was just spiining.

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          • Good post surgery. He’s topping at 95. Was 97-98 preinjury. His average is probably 3-3.5 mph less. He is a fastball first guy. He doesn’t have the approach when it isn’t his out pitch. Just my guesses

    • So then what? DFA him? It’s a lost season and there aren’t guys in the minors right now knocking down the door to give the Reds good starts. I’m fine with him taking the ball every 5th day. The Reds are paying him good money and they have to see if he can be a solid MLB starter. They need to give him at least 15-20 starts I think.

      I’d like to see Garrett and Finnegan swap but don’t see that happening because I think they are grooming Garrett to be the next closer.

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  5. Dis is a berry, berry bad besball team

    Berry bad.

    Tomorrow, more ways to lose. Dees Reds find da way to lose.

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  6. Clearly, it was Bryan Price’s fault.

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  7. The reds will NOT lose another game the rest of the year and win the world series.

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  8. “You gotta have heart, miles and miles and mile of heart …”

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  9. Just read where the Reds are in the mix for Matt Harvey.

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    • That isn’t a bad idea. Reclamation project but nothing really to lose. Unlike Reed or Stephenson, both of whom I like and am pulling for, Harvey has been a very good starter at the MLB level. He’s still young. The Price will probably be right.

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      • I redact this comment as I didn’t realize that Harvey is a free-agent after the season. If this was spring training and the Reds could fix him and flip him, I’d be all for trying. I think now that it’s coming up on mid-May, even if the Reds got him and fixed him, he wouldn’t get enough good starts in to convince a buying team to give up much in trade if the Reds tried to flip him.

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  10. After leading the NL in appearances Milton is named the Reds lone All Star.

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    • Really well played comment.

      If only the Reds could be as sharp, night after night, as the commenters are around here.

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  11. We need to re-read the definition of “ace”. What’s Phil Niekro up to these days? No way he’d cost more than $15M/yr.

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  12. Chins up. There are still 3 1/2 weeks and 2 west coast trips still to go in May. Reds could very well not have 15 wins by May 31.
    Might be looking for an interim, interim manager by mid-June.
    Falling deeper into the abyss.

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    • This is no rebuild. It’s a catastrophe premised upon bad scouting and projections. The Reds need to get something for Iglesias. Deadline trades aren’t supposed to be acts of necessity in the ‘last’ year of a “rebuild”

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      • Get something for Iglesias. They’ll get nothing and like it!!
        Hold on to your seats, boys. It’s going to be a rough ride.

        This is not all Bryan Price’s fault, or Walt Jocketty, or Dusty Baker, or Dick Williams, or anyone else you’d like to blame. It is, however the RESPONSIBILITY of the ownership.

        There is something deeply WRONG with the approach and management of this team. Someone is responsible. There are some gaping holes in this team, starting with….the starting pitching. And it has been this way for a while. And it doesn’t look to get much better anytime soon.

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        • If you’re looking to pinpoint the blame and responsibility, it begins and ends at 100 Joe Nuxhall Way in the corner suite with the sign outside the door that reads “Robert Castellini, CEO”. This is his team, his management and his people that are overseeing this dreadful rebuild.

          I’m not ready to give final judgment on the rebuild; there are still some important pieces that can be added to the team in the next couple years to turn things around. But, in the preceeding several years, we have seen critical missteps from management that have thwarted the rebuild efforts and those missteps were obvious from the day they were made. At best, I’m doubtful at this point that this group can figure things out, short of getting some lucky breaks.

          Steel yourselves, brave Reds fans. It is said that the darkest hour is just before dawn. Unfortunately, it’s still just approaching midnight in RLN.

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    • Obviously the interim manager is not the reason the Reds are falling further into the abyss. It’s the quality of the starting pitching and until that improves or is rectified by acquisition, little will change. It seems to me the plethora of young pitchers the Red’s farm system has had, with a couple exceptions, were not seasoned sufficiently in the minors and were brought up too soon. This is a failure of the organization, pure and simple, from the top down.

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    • Shouldn’t it be clear now that manager, whoever he is, isn’t the main problem? What could Riggleman do differently that would matter?

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    • It occurred to me last night after the game that these are truly historic times the team is going through. Historic to the bad side of the ledger but nonetheless historic. When human organizations go through times like these big changes inevitably happen, changes that no one saw coming until events mandated them.

      So, what might we be looking at in the next year to 18 months. Perhaps a new ownership or at least a change in the managing partner? The scion of one of the principal ownership families being removed from his position as GM/ President of Baseball Operations?

      Or might DW simply fire himself from the GM spot and bring somebody else to be GM and conduct a midlevel house cleaning while he retains the PoBO post?

      Whatever it is, It needs to happen sooner rather than later, preferably in time to let the new wave choose the next “permanent” manager least the carnage be extended even longer.

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      • Now those are some interesting ruminations, Jim. My first question would be, why do you think there would be an ownership change? From what info we do have, it would appear that the value of the franchise has grown mightily during the current regime. This despite the fact that they have overseen only 3 winning seasons.

        Would they be inclined to sell just because of the current abysmal stretch? There doesn’t seem to be a financial incentive to do so.

        Might there be a change in FO management, without a change in ownership? Perhaps. But all appearances are that they will give DW time to work through this iteration of the rebuild. After all, they haven’t really parted ways with Jocketty as he appears to be very much involved in day to day operations. Given that the team really hasn’t made a clear transition in the FO, it doesn’t make sense for DW to bear the brunt of the current mess; unless, of course, DW himself gets fed up being in a can’t win situation.

        I think the only other plausible change (that, I might add, would work) would be for Castellini to take a further step back from management and let DW take the reigns. But, I don’t put those events as being likely to occur. Castellini’s recent Enquirer interview yielded no indication that he is changing course with the way things are done down at GABP. From my point of view, BC has too much direct involvement and not enough competency to get this team back on the right course. This seems to be the confluence of two unfortunate situations: A passionate owner who is really involved in his hobby and someone suffering the Dunning-Kruger effect in operating a successful MLB franchise.

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        • I’m just saying that in human organizations, not particularly MLB or specifically the Reds, when crashes like this happen, monumental changes almost always follow. Businesses go out of business or are broken up. CEO’s and Chairperson of the board are sent packing etc. Stuff that would not have been in the conversation 6 months ago may come onto the table. Sometimes the least probable are what end up happening.

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      • Wish I knew… The entire org seems like a mess. I don’t see how it is DW fault but he would ultimately be the fall guy. I definitely don’t see a change in ownership on the horizon. Linder had a hard enough time finding a buyer. I do think that WJ needs to go away and Castellini needs to let his baseball ops people just do their job, so that DW can actually have full reign. That discussion about how he provides his input and if there are no objections that usually is what they decide to do as a organization, makes me think that DW has very little actual power as far as player-personnel.

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  13. Hey, Silver Lining – we’re witnessing history here. We’re on the bandwagon of the worst team in 137 years –

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  14. a year ago the reds were 17-15 on this date. since that time we have gone 59-106. yikes

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  15. Forget about 2019 too. The year to target is 2020. How anyone thinks Schebler is more than a 4th outfield on a contending team is beyond me. What playoff team does Scott Schebler start for? That’s WJ type of thinking.

    In 2020:
    OF: Winker, Trammell, Player to be Acquired
    IF: Votto, Suarez, Senzel, Long (figure it out, cards and cubs do)
    SP: #1 Player to be Acquired, #2 Castillo, #3 Mahle, #4 Gutierez or Santillan, #5 Romano
    Closer: Garrett
    BP: Enough arms between Finnegan, BobSteve, Reed, Lorenzen, Mella, etc

    That’s 2 big holes to fill, at a minimum. Get 1 by trading Rasiel and get the other in the offseason.

    That would give them hope for 2020, but 2021 ideally as the year to start the window. Greene, Siri, Ty Stephenson, other prospects should be pushing AAA by then and the window starts to open. Need that other front of the rotation arm and outfielder, though.

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    • Even with your 2020 team, the rotation is still an top arm short. The “enough arms” for the bullpen approach may be fine, but the arms you list for the rotation are not. We may have a #3, #4 and a #5 in house by 2020.
      But no matter whatever else the Reds put on the field, it will not be enough until the team acquires a solid and dependable #1 and a #2 starter from outside the organization.

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  16. It’s official. As of May 7th, I found myself bored watching the Reds and said: that’s enough. May 7th. Can this team win 50 games?

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    • I found myself reduced to watching the Caps take down the Pens despite the fact I am a dyed in the wool BlueJackets fan. Finding joy in watching one of my team’s mortal enemies eliminate another from the playoffs is like getting a thrill from seeing the Cubs beat The Cards. Not what I really wanted to be doing but better than watching the Reds.

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      • Speaking of, did you see the traumatic injury to Molina? Yikes, hard to watch. Don’t like the guy but don’t wish injury on anyone.

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  17. Better off look for a couple of capable starters, otherwise they’re going to need at least ten bullpen arms to endure the season. I just can think off Castillo, Mahle and Romano now (and perhaps Garrett) to remain in the rotation until the end of the season.

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  18. “We’ve just come to a point where we’re not going to lose anymore.”

    Bob Castellini

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    • Maybe BC was a little confused on the meaning of win/lose there.
      Did he mean to say “….not going to win anymore”?

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  19. Good plan, Bob

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  20. $600,000 per game—assuming he plays in 32-33 games per year.. That’s how much we paid Homer Bailey for his performance against the Mets. Now, this is the fault of former Reds General Manager, Walt Jockety, who cooked up Homer’s multi-year contract when Walt got excited about two homerless and gutless games Homer pitched years ago. Not Homer’s fault, but it does tell you why Reds management is financially hamstrung in its player acquisition strategy. And that has contributed to a tailspin.

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    • I know making Bailey the scapegoat is easy and it’s clear that contract hasn’t worked out for the Reds but, there are 24 other players and the Reds used to have a payroll over $15-million higher than they have now. They also should have more revenue coming in than they used to due to increased national TV money as well as their new local TV contract. Plus, they got approximately a $50-million windfall from the sale of MLBAM. The Reds are not hamstrung financially. They can’t go crazy but cries that they are poor are lies.

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  21. Spellcheck did it again! Should be “hitless” not “gutless”!!!!

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  22. The team is exactly what we thought it was, a sufficient offense, questionable defense and dependent on young pitchers developing and veterans coming back from injury. After a slow start the bats have come alive, even Peraza who we had all written off is hitting. Hamilton has even looked decent in the 9th spot lately.

    While many on this site want to blame Hamilton, Peraza, Duvall, Schebler, and Votto (who’s hits evidently don’t count when losing or winning) it is the pitching that is to blame. The entire rebuild was based on the pitching and the team hired a respected pitching coach to manage the team. The injuries piled up at an abnormal rate and the young guys all regressed.

    In my opinion the lessons to be learned for rebuild 2.0 are. Draft the best hitters available, hire all new pitching coaches/trainers/scouts, overhaul the front office, trade Duvall, Hamilton, Gennett, Mesoraco, Iglesias, Hughes, and some of these pitching “prospects”. This group isn’t going to return a lot, but it saves money on the arbitration guys that can be used to pay for extensions and free agents. It also rids the team of the logjams and rotations forcing the young guys to prove themselves. Going forward 1B, 3B, C, and LF are the only positions locked up, with Peraza getting one last chance to earn SS. Maybe 2 or 3 SP can be sorted out. Schebler should be sufficient in RF and if Senzel overcomes the vertigo issues he can lock down 2B.

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    • Agree with all of this

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    • Your first sentence is 100% correct but it is what it is because well last year was a complete waste by not sorting through these young pitchers.You can’t sort by a few starts here or there,anointing guys then throwing them under the bus when they have some stinkers(Garrett and Castillo come to mind)the only way is to let them pitch.Right now Homer and Finny are bad and may stay that way and unless they can make it past the 3rd or 4th inning they have to be replaced.The others are young and deserve 20 or 25 starts or more to show either they can or not.Right now I think we end up with 3 or 4 major league average pitchers with some upside but it is a process.One last thing we have lost a ton of one run games and have been shut out 7 times.Yes the pitching must improve but our record is not solely based on a lack of pitching.

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      • The record is not entirely because of pitching, there have been defensive and offensive problems, but when you lose 8-7 the offense is not to blame. Giving up 8 runs out s the issue. Of course scoring 10 runs a game is a recipe for success it is not something that should be expected

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        • I was wrong about the number of times we have been shut out it is actually 5 times but we have scored 4 runs or less 18 more times.It starts with pitching of course and ends there most of the time.Last night’s game and Sunday’s game are exactly how most of the games were last year.We get behind early and then get cookies to hit and we make it close and lose 8-5 and 7-6.Hopefully we start scoring when a starter gives us some good innings but right now when we pitch we don’t hit and when we hit we don’t pitch.Castillo gave up 3 in 6 innings last time and we lost 3-1 and Mahle did the same and we get shut out.

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  23. Right now the Red’s pythagorean record on baseball reference is (12-22), which is a 4 game swing. Looking at that stat on their site, 4 games in 34 played is pretty big swing and indicates along with being pretty bad, they are also pretty unlucky.

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  24. A round of BLARGH! for all my friends here … and a Double BLARGH for Milton.

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  25. Our SP has been horrendous. Here are their respective (not respectable) FIPs.

    Finnegan: 7.14
    Baily: 6.28 (worst in MLB for those under the “qualified” category for IP)
    Castillo: 5.22
    Romano: 5.16
    Mahle: 4.85

    All those guys are in the bottom decile in MLB.

    #yikes #thankswalt #thanksdick #thanksbob #youkiddingme
    #vomit

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    • The plan “hope” was that the 3 injured starters would be back and that would solve most of the problems. Strange that a plan based on hope does not work.

      Bailey -0.4 WAR
      Finnegan -0.4 WAR
      DeSclafani not pitching

      Mahle has potential as does Castillo, beyond that, very little

      This is why you do not do a rebuild based on pitching

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      • I say we cut ties with Disco. I would also say them same for Lorenzen. I would give Finnegan and Homer 2-3 more starts and can them too if they can’t perform. Also, throw Mesoraco in the mix too. This might be drastic, but I’m fed up. I say injured players let the team down more than poorly performing ones. Why is it so hard for these guys to stay healthy?! You let the team down; we let you down! Clean house, baby!

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  26. Going to Milton this early and often in the season I hope there’s a Milton 2 ready in the bullpen!

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  27. My inner Pete Rose will probably force me to continue to watch this team. Taking the other team over vs Finnegan is as dependable as a paycheck. Bailey is trending that way too. Sad! Even the Reds HRs are just gabp oppo bloops in the 2nd row in LF. If the Reds played in LA…Scooter might have 1 HR and I think Votto would be shut out. The other teams hit cheapies in gabp too, but many are absolute bombs as well.

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  28. Steve Adams/MLBTR:

    “Three years ago on the MLBTR Podcast, Jeff Todd and I discussed how the Reds were in position to rapidly rebuild their farm system by trading not only rental pieces (e.g. Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake) but also several players with additional control remaining. Doing so would’ve meant selling high on assets like Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce and Aroldis Chapman — a tough sell for the fanbase but one that likely would’ve been considerably more beneficial than the route the Reds ultimately took in holding onto those stars and watching their value diminish.”

    WJ spent his entire tenure utilizing players provided by the previous management team and drafting pitching, pitching and more pitching. The existing players handed to WJ on the proverbial silver platter produced the first winning/competitive team in over a decade. The mismanagement by WJ and BC made that winning cycle both short-lived, under-achieving and utterly disappointing. Now the legacy produced by WJ and BC strangles the Reds organization with the worst pitching staff in the league, not only a failed rebuild but a historically miserable failed rebuild and a wasted career for Joey Votto.

    I am a fan of the Reds team and have been for much more than a half-century, but the management group is an absolute disgrace and embarrassment to Reds fans, the Reds organization and the Reds history. I can’t imagine anyone trusting the current Reds management group to extricate the team and organization from the morass they’ve created or to start over and properly execute an organizational rebuild. The really sad obituary will leave the ownership group walking away with hundreds of millions of dollars profit and leaving a cesspool laying in waste in their wake.

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    • And let’s hope not a leveraged buyout when they leave to deposit their profits

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    • A plan of overvaluing your existing players, drafting pitching, trading for pitching is showing to be a complete failure. That plan has brought very little hitting talent and none of the pitchers have produced to this point.

      The Reds plan right now is to continue running out the same lineup and players that produce 90 plus loss seasons and expect different results I guess.

      Guessing the Reds management will continue on the same path of overvaluing their existing closer.

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    • Amen to this.

      I think the failure also speaks to the arrogance/ignorance of Jocketty/front office in consistently drafting players with the expectation of changing their use. From OF/SP for Lorenzen, to RP/SP for Iglesius/Finnegan/Howard, etc. All failures to some degree, plus bad injury luck to key players (Homer, Mez) have cratered the pipeline of major league ready players. This is why it is so frustrating that Price is fired, while Walt remains employed in any capacity. Talk about treating symptoms rather than the cause. With his tract record, I don’t want him influencing Williams!

      Overall, I think I’m most disappointed this season with the lack of really any obvious improvement of our young starting pitchers. (Small exception, Amir….although who knows how effective he would be the second/third time through the lineup.) I remain hopeful that some (any!) will take some steps forward…..especially enough to put the pressure on team to address Finnegan’s role in the starting rotation. That has to be tenuous by now, right? We have options – good or bad – I’m ready to see them try someone else and let him figure it out in AAA or the bullpen.

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  29. Believe it or not, Homer Bailey would be the 2nd best SP on the Cubs, who have 3 starters worse than the Reds in WHIP. Their bullpen and defense is no better. They have 3 position players OPS’ing over .900, but 4 are in the .600s.

    So why aren’t they 19 games under .500???

    The Reds have allowed 56 home runs and lead the majors. Specifically, the Reds starting pitchers have allowed 39 HR’s to the Cub’s 24.

    I’ve said it before, it boils down to de-emphasizing the fastball and adjusting the pitch sequencing with runners on base so that multiple runs aren’t crossing the plate on one swing of the bat. I just feel like we’re getting crushed in the analytics department night in night out. Maddening!!!

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  30. It’s time to surrender on Homer Bailey.

    Jason Marquis, 2015: 47.1 IP, 10 HR, 62 ERA+, 5.27 FIP, 5.2 BB/9, 5.5 K/9
    Homer Bailey, 2018: 43.1 IP, 11 HR, 72 ERA+, 6.28 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9

    The big difference is that Homer walks fewer guys, compared to the Gold Standard of Stinkage. My view is that Homer CAN’T walk very many guys, because he usually throws a beach ball down the middle in his first 4 pitches. Homer’s given up 15 runs in his last 14 innings, with 7 HRs and 4 Ks, and 38 flyball outs to 20 ground outs. He couldn’t get college players out, and you can see it in his face.

    Homer is clearly not going to be on the next good Reds team. I don’t even want him on the next bad Reds team, in 2019. Quit giving him opportunities that should be going to younger pitchers, like Garrett and Stephenson. They need to move Bailey to bullpen, as a mop-up man, and let him work on the side.

    There is maybe a 1 in 5 chance that, with a reset, he will improve enough to be productive. If so, they can trade him, having to eat 85% of his contract. As it stands now, they are getting below-replacement level production out of him. Any amount over $600,000/year that another team agrees to take on should be deemed a success.

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    • No team is going to take him on, even at $600K. The Reds have 2 options, release him or pitch him in the rotation. He won’t work well for the bullpen because part of his issue is the length of time it takes him to warm up. He is worth more to the Reds than he is to anyone else and they need to hope he can be an adequate MLB SP again. He really isn’t holding anyone back as I think they’ve decided that Garrett is their next closer and Stephenson still can’t throw strikes (although he threw very well his last start out). The Reds need to give Bailey 10-15 more starts to see if he can get sorted. If he can’t, then really the only other choice is to DFA him and subsequently release him.

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      • When I mean” bullpen” for Homer, I mean pitch him in the 8th and 9th when down by 6 runs. (He ought to get plenty of work in that role.) I believe that the Reds in fact will give him another 10 starts, but that depends on who they surrender on when Desclafani comes back (and how many starts he gets before re-injuring himself.) Instead of Bailey getting more chances, I’d rather see almost anybody, including guys like Austin Brice (a minor-league starter, for the most part) and even Jared Hughes. What do they have to lose? Worried about falling behind the ’62 Mets? They are already there.

        Bailey and Stephenson have the same problem, of command. Stephenson’s problem manifests itself in his missing the strike zone while he tries to hit the corners. Bailey’s problem manifests itself when whatever he throws ends up in the geometric center of the strike zone, as if pulled by a tractor beam. Give me Stephenson’s walks over Bailey’s homers.

        And if they want Garrett to be the next closer, then they are stupid. That’s like the University of Kentucky saving their best player for punt returns, when they can’t force any team to punt.

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        • I agree on Garrett and closer. The guy should start. The Reds tend to define roles though and once in a role, it seldom seems to change. In other words, I am banking on them being dumb about this.

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    • Buy him a boat and send him on his way down the Ohio. See if Louisville wants him. If not, he can make the long trek to eventually be in Pensacola or Daytona.

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  31. Omigod. I can’t imagine going thru an entire season like this. And yet, that’s what’s happening….

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    • I can deal with the lost season and the one probably coming next year. As many stated before opening day, I’m also glad baseball is back until November. As a long time fan, I’ll just watch the games with the mute on to avoid the occasional insipid comment from the broadcasters and follow the Reds in whatever way they rebuild.

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      • The only thing worse than looking at the scoreboard in the ninth is to listen to Thom B’s most irritating forced laugh. He and Welsh are unlistenable.

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  32. ….it’s like watching the Zapruder film in slow motion over and over and over.

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  33. Anyone know what Duvalls numbers are from the all star break last year to now?

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  34. I agree because 94/95 should be good enough to get people out.His secondary pitches aren’t good at all right now.I also think Finny should get a few more starts as well although his velocity is way down.

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    • Finnegan should be optioned to AAA, if he has any options left. I think the jury is still out whether or not he has the value that was assigned to him after his first full year with the Reds. So let him get his brains beat in a few more times, and then let him figure it out for himself.
      Maybe the Royals would want him back, and give us some marginally talented A – ball pitcher or player. That’s about all he is worth now.

      Oh, and in 13 IP for the Dodgers, Tony Cingrani has a 6.23 ERA, 2 losses, two blown save opportunities, and has surrendered 2 home runs, and has a WHIP of 1.31. So, he’s not exactly burning it up with LA. I know people always blame the pitching coach or the organization, but sometimes a guy just loses it.

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      • Some guys can pitch effectively at 90-91 but those guys must have pin point control.Good big league hitters can hit a fastball regardless of the velocity and most bad hitters can as well.Finny has been one of those that at 94-95 is effectively wild and that velocity helps his change up and slider and unless he gets his velocity back he will struggle.No control at 90-91 can become batting practice when you have to throw a strike on 2-0 and 3-1 which it has in his starts.

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  35. To follow up on Sultan’s earlier comment about de-emphasizing the fastball, here is an article supplying the reasoning to go along with his comment:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-fast-fastball-isnt-enough-anymore/

    Reply
    • Interesting article. I do wonder if it takes into account the difference in velocity noted between the old Pitchfx velocity numbers and the Statcast numbers though.

      Reply
    • Spoiler alert.

      This is not news. Never in the history of baseball was having a good fastball enough. The fact the Reds don’t draft and acquire pitchers with at least ONE good breaking ball is a big problem.

      It doesn’t take analytics to know if you throw 80% fastballs, and aren’t Walter Johnson or Bob Feller good compared to the rest of the league, you ain’t going to be successful. We already knew this, no need for some new story/article acting like they stumbled on to something.

      Every great fastball pitcher had a just as great breaking ball of some sort (or at least a split-finger fastball or sinker), Ryan and his curve, Johnson and his slider, Koufax and the curve, Clemens and the slurve and splitter, etc.

      I just don’t get why we have so many drafted and traded for pitchers that can’t throw something as simple as a curver or slider with some level of effectiveness.

      Either our scouts suck, or more likely, our organizational instruction simply doesn’t keep pestering the kids to keep throwing the breaking ball until you master it.

      It’s well known, but obviously we do agree this organization is lost when it comes to developing pitching prospects. LOST. Maybe Bert Blyleven would be open to coming aboard to lead pitching development so we can get a curve ball master drilling into their heads?

      Reply
  36. Given the early runs seemingly given up in damn near every game – any chance for a RLN article on how the Reds coaching staff conducts their SP pre-game approach? Would like to see/read what their specific prep looks like and potentially a compare/contrast with other clubs. With the offense starting in a hole night after night you would think that the club would re-look how they tee things up before the SPs really tee it up.

    Reply
  37. I would like to see one beat writer stand up at a press conference and ask Bob “What happened to winning baseball? How do you feel about this cesspool you have created?”

    Reply
    • “Mr. Castellini, the Reds had a nice run starting at 2010 of winning baseball but now are enduring what is likely another 90-loss season. It would mark the 4th such season in the last 4 years. This team has a fair chance of going down as having the most losses in franchise history and a passing chance at most losses in MLB history. What happened to the ‘we’re not going to lose anymore’ mindset? When can the fans expect winning baseball in Cincinnati?”

      Would go over like a turd in a punch-bowl but somebody has to ask. Probably shouldn’t be a beat-writer as they likely would end up persona non grata as far as the org is concerned going forward.

      Reply
      • 55 more wins to make it a 99 loss season. I don’t see it….thus breaking the 90 loss streak and starting a new one with triple digits! Yeah:)

        Reply
  38. The core players on the 2010, 2012 and 2013 division title teams were drafted/signed by O’Brien and Krivsky. The Cossack is correct, BC and WJ have squandered what others put in place before they arrived.

    Reply
    • This is true. Krivsky wasn’t a bad GM. He made 2 bad trades but several good ones and the team drafted pretty well under his limited time here.

      Reply
  39. The sad fact is we can’t fire the owner!!!!! The definition of insanity to continue the same D@MN stupid actions and expect a different outcome!

    Reply
    • We’ve had terrible ownership for 40 years now. It sucks. The poor decisions these owners make are staggering. Schott spent well, but her cheapskate scouting and coaching would not allow for a consistent winner.

      Linder was kind of a disinterested owner, but he may well have been the best of the last 3. At least Krivsky and O’Brien appeared to be solid GMs, albeit saddled with low payrolls and little flexibility.

      Castellini is spending fairly well on payroll and more recently upping investment in minors/training/misc, but his hiring and keeping around Walt Jocketty has completely sabotaged the rebuild and this franchise. It’s going to take several years to clean this up and it will likely require a new front office (unfair to DW or not), and that likely only gets done if Castellini sells or if he FINALLY gets completely out of any day-to-day affairs and realizes a full house-cleaning is in order AND that younger, newer thinking minds need to be considered for GM, ones that welcome using smartphones and computers and simulations and other such stuff.

      I just don’t see any really light at the end of this stinky, dank, dark tunnel we Reds fans are in…

      I suggest we all find another favorite team.

      Maybe when attendance is averaging 1,000 a game for the year Bob C will get the message. Hopefully Forbes comes in and says the Reds value was cut in half and scare Bob C into selling to someone, anyone that can afford it and would keep Reds in town (or not for that matter).

      Reply
    • Someone explain to me why the Reds are 25th in attendance? I get the die-hard Reds fans, but it only hurts this franchise when fans go to see a crappy product. I guess it has some positive, but I’d like to see Bob C squirm more myself.

      2018 Attendance
      RK TEAM GMS TOTAL AVG
      24 Oakland 18 329,356 18,297
      25 Cincinnati 19 324,651 17,086
      26 Cleveland 18 297,097 16,505
      27 Chicago (AL) 16 253,407 15,837
      28 Tampa Bay 16 237,331 14,833
      29 Pittsburgh 14 193,741 13,838
      30 Miami 18 202,052 11,225

      Reply

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About Chad Dotson

Blame Chad for creating this mess. Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds" is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad's musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

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2018 Reds, Titanic Struggle Recap

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