A couple of weeks ago, I took a look at the projections for the Reds offense. Things weren’t all that great. That’s fine, because as we all know, the Reds pitching staff over the past few years has been lights out. A big part of all three World Series championships in the past five years, when the offense has looked bad, the Reds have always had the super-reliable pitching staff to fall back on.

Wait, are you saying that’s not true? Ah, a guy can dream.

To the contrary, the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff has had a historically bad stretch over the past few seasons. Only a few seasons removed from a season in which none of the five starting pitchers on the Opening Day roster missed a start, the Reds have debuted a plethora of green arms to eat innings and fill in for the oft-injured top of the rotation. And indeed, the projection systems seem to think that trend will continue in 2018.

For our uses, I’ve only included players that project to be factors at the big league level as we enter Spring Training. You could add or subtract a few guys from this list, but for now it’ll do.

ZiPS Projections:

Steamer Projections

A few takeaways from these projections:

Holy Health Problems, Batman!

It’s more of the same health in 2018. According to both projection systems, not one Reds starter will reach 200 innings pitched, and none of them come particularly close. ZiPS projects Luis Castillo to lead the team in innings, but only projects him to pitch 156 of them. Interestingly, Tyler Mahle and Sal Romano are 2 and 3 on this list, presumably because the projections were made before Bryan Price pit them against each other in Spring Training. Or, because projections don’t care about local news media. Steamer thinks Anthony DeSclafani leads the team in innings pitched this year, just cracking 150. 150 innings from Disco likely means he’s hurt again, so I’ll drive quickly away from talking more about that.

Luis Castillo is Don Drysdale

Aren’t player comps fun? Don Drysdale pitched his entire career with the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers from 1956-1969. During that time all he was able to accomplish was a 3.02 FIP over more than 3,000 innings pitched, fueling his way to 9 All-Star teams, a Cy Young Award, 3 top 5 MVP-voting finishes, and 3 world series titles. Oh, and at the end of his career they hung a plaque up with his name and likeness in Cooperstown, New York at a little place called the Hall of Fame. Reds fans would surely take that in exchange for Dan Straily, right?

It’s high praise for a 25 year-old kid with 90 major league innings to his name. But, if you look at the numbers, their first seasons weren’t all that far off. It’s hard to compare across multiple decades like this, but one indicator we can use is ERA+, which can be used to compare pitcher performance to the league average for an individual season (or an entire career). Yes, I know ERA, and therefore ERA+, is flawed. But baseball was black and white back then, and no one had gotten around to inventing FIP just yet.

While Drysdale was very good out of the gate in 1956, pitching 99 innings with a 152 ERA+ (meaning his ERA was 52% better than the league average), Luis Castillo was in the ballpark (no pun intended), pitching 89.1 innings with a 141 ERA+. Drysdale’s ERA+ was, for the most part, much lower than 152 for most of his career (although, only twice under 100 towards the end). His ERA+ was 122 over his 14 seasons, which is really good. It’s a benchmark we should watch as Castillo’s career blossoms. I’m not ready to say he’s a Hall of Famer, but his rookie year was Hall of Fame caliber if you look through the right lens.

Who’s Starting These Games, Anyway?

There doesn’t seem to be a clear consensus between these two models as to who the starting five pitchers in the rotation will be. That’s fine, because our real life manager doesn’t know the answer to that question either! It’s probably a feature, not a bug, of these projection systems. After all, choosing five guys to receive starter-level innings before games even start is a recipe for disaster in the real world. It makes sense that the systems would hedge their bets. It’s interesting to see just how differentiated they are, though.

For instance, ZiPS clearly thinks Amir Garrett is going to be a factor in 2018, moreso than Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Brandon Finnegan, Anthony Desclafani, and Homer Bailey. Steamer is way lower on Amir, slotting him in for only 35 innings over 6 big-league games. Personally I think the realistic number of Innings Pitched for Garrett lays somewhere between these two numbers, but closer to the Steamer projection, especially with what we know now.

Raisel Iglesias Should Be a Desired Trade Asset

Both projection systems see our closer having another fantastic season. ZiPS, especially, thinks Iggy will have a fantastic season, including a very nice 76 FIP-, which would be the best on the team, and nearly 25% better than the average MLB pitcher. That’s the kind of piece that can net you a return of multiple solid prospects or major league pieces. By the time the Trade Deadline rolls around, the Front Office should know whether the team is ready to fill holes with major league players, or if the pipeline should be solidified with top prospects. Either way, Iglesias should have a fantastic season, and would be a premium trade piece at the deadline if he puts up these kinds of numbers.

Michael Lorenzen is Cemented in the Bullpen

Despite being named a contender for the open 5th slot in the rotation, neither Steamer or ZiPS has Michael Lorenzen receiving a starter’s plate of innings. They also project him to struggle out of the ‘pen in 2018, both systems projecting him to accrue only .4 WAR over the season. There’s some rough peripherals thrown in there as well (1.02 FIP- from ZiPS, 4.07 FIP from Steamer) that place him just around league average as a bullpen piece. That isn’t nothing, and would certainly be valuable in the Reds bullpen, but it’s not what fans and the Front Office are expecting from Lorenzen.

 

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That’s all for the projections. I’ll be dropping in once or twice a month throughout the season to give my thoughts and start some discussions. In the meantime, give me a follow on Twitter @JordanBarhorst. Go Reds!

Jordan has been a lifelong Reds fan, attending games since before he can remember. When he’s not watching, listening to, or writing about the Reds, he’s designing websites, photographing weddings, and hanging out with his friends and family.

Join the conversation! 14 Comments

  1. The chances of any Reds pitcher topping 200 IP are obviously slim. Homer, DeSclafani, and Finnegan might *combine* for 200 IP. Lorenzen is a hero on this web site but a below average reliever on the mound. Castillo, Mahle, and Stephenson are all interesting guys who may break out or may blow out their elbows.

    If you think I’m being negative, look at the track record of these pitchers and the organization who employs them.

  2. I’m less worried about Mahle getting hurt and if/when Disco Homer and Finnegan arms tear off in May I see Mahle as a Mike Leake comp who will be very good, not great, for a long time. He can hit 95 but pitches at 90% effort. And has innings on his arm. I’m much higher on him than Garrett Bob Steve or Big Sal.

    • One more thing – the Reds are being purposefully coy with whom they like the best and I like it. All pitchers should be tagged as Can’t Miss with great attitudes etc for the sake of market value. Teams scouts can do their own homework on measurables, but no doubt the positive press helps the immeasurables.

  3. Just hoping homer does well enough so the reds can trade him and shed that ridiculous contract of his (rangers and mariners come to mind). He won’t be on the next contending team do why keep him around if there is a chance to trade him

    • So the next contending team is at least 2020 (option year for Bailey)? That is really disappointing to hear. I think it’s going to take more than a half season of Homer being healthy to make him movable unless the Reds want to move money in the deal too. Why do that? A healthy Bailey may be more valuable to the Reds than what they’d get in trade, mindful of the fact that a fair chunk of money would probably have to move in any deal as well.

      Now, Bailey may have some trade value to a contender if he can put in a full season of healthy, effective work. #3 starters are fetching $15-$17-million a year on the open market. Of course, that’s valuable to the Reds if they are planning to contend in 2019 too. If not however, then Bailey should probably indeed be moved. At that point I’d consider this a failed rebuild and start over.

      • I misspoke. Bailey won’t be around when they are contending constantly. I think they can contend next season for a wild card, which happens to be his last year (or if they decide to pick up his option). The rest of the starting pitcher candidates this year more than likely will be around for the next time the Reds contend as they have more years of team control. And most of these candidates can be effective #3 starters wit more maturation. With Bailey’s injury history and the fact he is getting older and more expensive, any chance to trade him for something is a win in my book.

        • Ah… Got it. Really depends on if he has a healthy and effective 2018 I think.

  4. If Castillo becomes Drysdale and Romano becomes Wynn (Earlier rather than later :), We’ll be near a playoff team by 2019.

    Desclafani projections are well below his past performance (somewhat understandable with his injury history, but hopefully wrong.

    The computers like Reed and think Stephenson is terrible. Even computers are confused by the data. I’m a little conflicted on what Reed or Stephenson will do as well.

  5. Nice work Jordan.
    That is pretty sweet to have Luis Castillo’s #1 comp. be the legend of Don Drysdale. HOF pitcher Don Drysdale. But having a second pitcher with a HOF #1 comp. is super sweet. Big Sal Romano compared to Early Wynn is special too. Ted Williams called Early Wynn the toughest pitcher he ever faced. That is one heck of a comp. Go Big Sal.
    The other comps are pretty brutal however.
    Iglesias’s comp. is Roger McDowell? Hmm. Is that the same Roger McDowell that spit the big loogy on Kramer and Jerry in the infamous “Keith Hernandez episode” of Seinfeld?

  6. Its always a case of maybe’s, woulda’s, and shoulda’s with 80-90% of young pitchers. We just have to hope that it clicks with some of them and we have atleast 7-8 guys with nice potential if you factor in someone like Lorenzen.

    I find it sort of funny how high everyone was on Bob Steve and I always thought he sucked, but now he actually seems to turn a corner and you can’t find anything positive about him? He had a 3.30 era in the 2nd half over 60 ip. Finnegan had a 2.93 era over the 2nd half in 2016 (70 ip).

    If some of them click then we’ll go about 78-84
    If they don’t then we can break the string of 90 losses seasons with a triple digit Ls because they’ve done nothing to improve the team whatsover

  7. These projections are interesting, but they don’t include the human factor of attitude and desire. We will all have to wait to see who on this young staff steps up. If enough do, and they’re lucky enough to stay healthy, then we will have a good young pitching staff for the next few years. I agree with Indy Red Man that we could reach 74+ wins in 2018, but we’re in a brutally tough division with the Cubs, Cards, & Brewers, who all upgraded this offseason. We could place in the top 10 in the NL in offense, defense, and pitching in 2018 and still finish 4th in the division. It’s February, so my heart is hopeful just like every other Reds fan. I just want to see fire in the eyes of these guys. We’re all sick of losing.

  8. I would like to know if these projections considered directly that pitchers will get injured. I would have to believe so, since no one is over 160 innings.

    That’s going to be the key for this year, just like the last several years. It’s really two-pronged. One, the pitching has to stay healthy. Two, they have to step up their performance over the recent years.

    My prediction. First, I will say, I hope I’m wrong. I predict at least 4 of our starting pitchers on opening day will see the disabled list this season, at least 2 of them missing significant time (at least half the season). I predict one of the young studs will step up this season. I predict our pitching will be our achilles heel again this season. I predict we are seeing the bottom of the division again.

    Sorry, guys and gals. But, like I said, I hope I’m wrong.

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About Jordan Barhorst

Jordan has been a lifelong Reds fan, attending games since before he can remember. When he's not watching, listening to, or writing about the Reds, he's designing websites, photographing weddings, and hanging out with his friends and family.

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