This week’s respondents are Nick Doran, Nick Carrington, the inimitable Mary Beth Ellis, and Chad Dotson.


Our Daily Reds Obsession: What’s the best-case scenario for Adam Duvall? Worst-case?

Nick D: Best case scenario is he puts two first halves together to make a whole season. Worst case is he puts two second-halves together. He has a .262/.302/.550 slash line with 44 home runs and 123 RBI in 646 first-half at-bats in his career, compared to a .219/.290/.410 triple slash with 28 homers and 93 RBI in 630 second-half at-bats. Reds manager Bryan Price needs to keep Duvall fresh by resting him regularly against tough right-handed pitchers so he doesn’t wear down before the season is half over. Duvall and Scott Schebler have amazingly similar career numbers. Both are solid, major-league-average hitters from opposite sides of the plate. But Duvall is two years older and less likely to see an uptick in production from a natural development curve. So ideally, Duvall will get off to a hot start and then be moved for a less redundant asset in a position of need such as centerfield or shortstop.

Nick C: Best-case scenario – I don’t see a lot of growth left for Duvall. Maybe he can become a little more consistent, but I think the best case is that he continues to provide impressive power, play solid defense, and maybe sneak that OBP over .310. I’d be happy with that, though he will have competition at the corners with Schebler and Jesse Winker.
Worst-case scenario – Duvall’s 2017 second half foreshadows his future, and the holes in his swing keep him from driving the ball into the stands. As I alluded to with Schebler, it’s hard to sustain success when you strikeout over a fourth of your plate appearances. Duvall’s didn’t hit the ball as hard in 2017 as he did in 2016, and if that’s because his deficiencies have caught up to him, then Winker and Schebler will have the inside edge on starting spots.

Mary Beth: The worst case scenario for Adam Duvall is to be drafted to my friend Scott’s fantasy team. Scott is the worst fantasy CEO in the history of round things that bounce. If an athlete is going to tank, become injured, slump, or throw the night Scooter Gennett decides to acquire more home runs in a single game than I have in my entire 12 years of gym class, he is going to appear on the roster of Scott.

His best-case scenario? Hop on the back of Redzilla at some point. I bet he has the power to make that happen, and I bet he can aim the tee shirt cannon directly at the beer trays of passing vendors.

Chad: I like Adam Duvall. I really do. He’s an All-Star, he’s had back to back 30-homer seasons, he’s been a Gold Glove finalist during each of the seasons he’s been a starter with the ol’ Redlegs. He’s a nice little player, and he’s always smiling, and his teammates like him, and I’m glad that I’ve had the chance to root for him.

But he’ll turn 30 next year and I’m not very optimistic about his future. In fact, I will almost guarantee that Scott Schebler will be more productive than Duvall next season, assuming equal playing time. So…

Best-case: Duvall gets traded and we wish him the best of luck, fondly recalling the highlights of his too-brief Reds career.
Worse-case: His OBP dips below .300 for good, and his defense begins to slip. He becomes the player we saw in the second half of last season (.212/.277/.385, 11 home runs in 72 games).

Blame Chad for creating this mess.

Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

Join the conversation! 17 Comments

  1. Farewell Adam. I’m sure you’ll provide your new team with a great clubhouse presence and at least 25 HRs and 85 RBI’s while playing a good LF; or, you’ll be in LF at the GABP come April because the Cincy FO doesn’t move too fast.

  2. Best case – He gets a few days off here and there in the 1st half, and puts together a really good season. 30+ HR’s, 90+ RBI, gold glove caliber defense.
    Worst case – Same as the past 2 seasons (which really have been pretty good)

  3. We move him for a viable piece of our future and Winker takes over LF and does very well.

  4. WOW! The Reds made a deal. They selected RHP, Brad Keller from AZ and traded him to KC for a PTBNL and $. I knew the Winter Meetings were not a waste.

    • I hope they traded him for more then 100K, else it will look really bad.

      • Pirates paid the Phillies $500k for the #3 selection Nick Burdi. Maybe they got the Royals to pay about $400k for the #5 pick. They can use that money to hire 2-3 analytics staff.

        • Not exactly, They gave the Phils 500K of international spending money.
          No real money changed hands.
          Phils must have 1 of the braves guys under the rader

        • Really doubt their analytics folks are making that much $$$. Of course that didn’t stop me from applying last year.

  5. Duvall’s OPS on Aug 19 was .845. That’s 4.5 months of pretty good baseball but almost everyone wants to dump him? Suarez OPS was .828 but he’s a cornerstone of the franchise. I don’t know? If they only trade Duvall, then they’re really overloaded with lefty hitters? It would be stupid to leave Senzel in the minors for most of the year like they did with Winker? They need to do something?

    • Suarez is young by roughly 11 billion years, plays high level defense at a better position, finished with an ops 47 points higher, ops plus 15 points higher (duvall was league average), obp 66 points higher and war was 2.8 higher. So why are you trying to place Duvall in the same category as Suarez?

      • Possibly because both he and Suarez have value on both offense and defense and hit with some power. I like Winker. He needs to play, but we’ll be lucky if he isn’t a defensive liability.

  6. Best case for AD is to put two first halves together in the same season, with the Reds. Also Reds pick Duvall to keep and decide to trade Schebler. His defense and position versatility outweigh anything Schebler can do. They are about the same offensively. I am becoming more skeptical of a 4-man OF rotation.
    Best case trade scenario for AD would be Boston, Houston, LA Angels, or Toronto.
    Worst case is AD putting together two second halves in the same season with the Reds. Or getting injured after trading away Schebler.

    • I’m inclined to believe that Schebler may have more value to the Reds but that’s also why he may have more value to other clubs interested in a Reds OF. I like that Duvall hits RH and has pop. Other than Suarez, the Reds don’t have anyone else like that. I don’t see him falling off a cliff at 31-32 years old while playing LF or RF, I just don’t.

      As for who to trade, it really depends on the return. I’d be inclined to move Schebler first but if the return for Duvall is better, then he’s the guy to move. I haven’t liked the idea of a 4-man OF rotation from the get go, so someone needs to go. I don’t think that someone is Hamilton because I have serious doubts that Schebler can play CF, even in a platoon w/ Ervin. The only way I’d move Hamilton is if the Reds know they can somehow acquire a guy who can provide at least average defense in CF.

  7. I think Duvall is our left fielder for the next couple of years. for better or worse. the reds are just biding their time until Siri and Trammel are ready for the big leagues.

    Duvall plays good d and the fans like him. plus he is local so I don’t see him going anywhere soon.
    I would like to see Ervin get more playing time this year in left however.

  8. I believe Duvall is who he is right now. Like a Dave Kingman with a good glove. I believe his trade value is highest now. Not that I would trade him. But, if we are going to go with Winker out there, we have to let one OF go. For, I don’t think Duvall, Hamilton, and Schleber will take kindly to riding the pine. And, I’m not so sure it would be good for Winker to learn how to play all three spots just to be able to play 3 out of 4 days like the others would, if you try to being Winker in like that.

    So, best case scenario, we make a good trade for Duvall. Worst case? We don’t and Duvall gets worse.

Comments are closed.

About Chad Dotson

Blame Chad for creating this mess. Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds" is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad's musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

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